internationallove Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 "UniCredit: strong franc is not an obstacle for exports"(2011-02-22) Despite the franc’s strength Switzerland's export growth remains strong. According to the data released today, Swiss trade balance surplus reached 1.96 billion francs, while the economists were looking forward to 1.65 billion. Specialists at UniCredit say that although high demand for franc as a safe haven currency reduces the exporters’ profits, it helps, on the other side, to stem the commodity related rise in input costs. In addition, Swiss export goods have the advantage of having high quality and, consequently, being less sensitive to the price shifts. As the global economy’s rebounding, the demand for Swiss exports is increasing. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6300 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 "Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD"(2011-02-22) The single currency didn't manage to overcome the 1.3715 level on Friday on its way to February 9 maximum at 1.3745. Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that as long as the pair EUR/USD trades below this maximum, it will remain under bearish pressure. According to the specialists, euro will be poised down to the 1.3396/61 area limited by the 55-day MA and the 50% retracement of the move seen this year. If EUR/USD climbs above 1.3745, it will rise to resistance line connecting the maximums of November and January at 1.3770 and the recent maximum at 1.3862. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6302 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 "Sakakibara: yen will rise to the postwar maximum"(2011-02-22) Eisuke Sakakibara, formerly Japan’s top currency official known as “Mr. Yen” for his efforts to influence the yen rate through verbal and actual intervention in the currency markets in 1997-1999, expects that yen will rise versus the greenback above the postwar maximum at 79.75. In his view, Japanese currency will stay this year above 80 yen per dollar. Such forecast is based on the structural weakness of the American economy. Sakakibara notes that the US still faces a balance-sheet problem with businesses saddled with bad loans and households with excess debts. As a result, the economist doesn’t think that the current economic recovery seen in the United States is sustainable. According to Sakakibara, the pair USD/JPY will remain in the downtrend during the medium or long term. The former official says that Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda should declare that strong currency is in Japan’s interest. Yen reached the maximal level since April 1995 on November 1 when it advanced to 80.22 per dollar. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect yen to fall to 86 per dollar by the middle of this year ending 2011 at 89 yen per USD. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6304 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 "Juergen Stark: ECB is ready to fight inflation"(2011-02-22) Juergen Stark, ECB Executive Board member, claims that the central bank will raise interest rates if necessary to keep inflation under control. According to Stark, the ECB is ready to “act decisively and immediately” on any indications of a wage-price spiral and higher inflation expectations. In January inflation euro zone inflation accelerated to 2.4% getting above the 2% ceiling established by the central bank. Stark expects inflation to stay above 2% during 2011 and then ease down in 2012. Hawkish comments of the EBC officials may be the kind of preparation for the shift in policy at the next meeting of the European officials that will take place on March 3 when the central bank is due to publish its latest inflation forecasts. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6306 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 "Yves Mersch: hawkish comments"(2011-02-22) ECB council member Yves Mersch claimed today that the European Central Bank will likely make an “exit” statement at the next meeting on March 3 announcing the end of monetary stimulus for the region’s economy. In addition, the official said that the ECB can raise rates even before the peripheral euro area nations have finished conducting austerity measures. According to Mersch, excessively low rates can distort European economy. Such hawkish comments made the single currency go up compensating the previous losses made as investors’ risk aversion strengthened due to the escalating situation in the Middle East, the earthquake in New Zealand and Moody's downgrade of Japan's debt outlook. The pair EUR/USD formed a spike returning above 1.3600. Chart. H1 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6308 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 "MPC minutes will put light on what’s the BoE up to"(2011-02-22) Tomorrow the Bank of England will publish the minutes of its Monetary Policy Committee’s meeting that will take place on February 10. BoE official Adam Posen will speak today at 5 p.m. Andrew Sentence, David Miles, Charles Bean and Martin Weale will also speak this week. The MPC members have different views on the suitable monetary policy, but the tone of the central bank seems to turn more hawkish, so the market wonders if Sentance and Weale who propose to lift up the benchmark rate have been joined by a third member. Economists at BNP Paribas say that if the minutes show a third official voted for an increase, the market will have no more doubts about the coming rate hike from the current 0.5% level. In their view, although the rate increase will make it harder for the British economy to recover, it won’t completely derail the rebound. Analysts at Standard & Poor’s believe that the MPC will take more time to make out how strong economic growth will be in the first half of the year. However, the specialists added that as this is the question of credibility for the BoE’s ability to fight inflation, UK central bank will increase rates by autumn or even sooner. Chart. H4 GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6310 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 "Analysts on the efficiency of G20 finance ministers’ summit"(2011-02-23) Group of 20 finance chiefs convinced China in the necessity of developing an early warning system to detect when economic fault lines are opening that may affect global growth. Among the yardsticks to monitor there are, for example, budget deficit levels, the external imbalance and private savings rates. The officials signaled concern over the new threat by noting some emerging markets are displaying “signs of overheating” and agreed to study the forces behind surging commodity prices. The G-20’s statement maintained last year’s decision to enhance currency flexibility trying to avoid at the same time volatile movements in exchange rates. The economists have different estimates of the summit’s results. Analysts at UBS claim that the statement of G20 finance ministers’ meeting brought nothing new. In their view, the group itself is losing relevance as there's no sign of the establishment of a binding global imbalances supervisory system anytime soon. In their view, the currency markets are still driven mainly by policy normalization, the sovereign debt crisis and global inflationary pressures. Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group note that there’s slow but steady progress towards better international policy coordination aiming at reduced global imbalances. Economists at TD Securities believe that the list of indicators will give the rich countries an alternative to telling emerging markets to stop manipulating currencies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 "Bayern LB: strong franc in the first half of the year"(2011-02-23) Analysts at Bayern LB believe that in the first half of 2011 Swiss franc will keep being strong as the political turmoil in the Middle East and the euro zone’s debt crisis increase investors’ risk aversion, while Switzerland has trade surplus and franc is regarded as the safe haven. When the mentioned factors supporting franc’s rate disappear, Swiss currency will weaken and lose attraction due to the country's low interest rates, the specialists say. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6321 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 "Demand for franc and yen keeps growing"(2011-02-24) As the tensions situation in the Middle East escalate, investors keep buying so-called safe haven currencies – Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ underline that the uncertainty is now too high and it's unknown what will happen from now. The specialists say that if Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi steps down, the situation may briefly return to normal. However, the things may get even worse if oil refinery equipment is destroyed, note the strategists. According to Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, the pair USD/JPY may fall below 82, but it's unlikely to deviate from the recent range between 81 and 84. Currency strategists at Commerzbank believe that as the pair USD/CHF fell below the key support at 0.9309, it’s poised for further declines lowering to 0.9120 and then possibly 0.9000. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Chart. H4 USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6323 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 "WestLB: Aussie will gain on carry trades"(2011-02-24) Analysts at WestLB note that Australian dollar performed surprisingly well despite the natural disasters that were tormenting the continent since the end of last year. The specialists believe that even though RBA assistant governor Philip Lowe claimed that the country’s GDP could be about 1% lower this quarter, the total 2011 growth will still be almost 4.25% – more than in other developed nations. WestLB underlines that such growth will be obtained while the Reserve bank of Australia’s benchmark rate is already at 4.75%, that’s 450 basis points above the Fed’s one, 425 bps above British rates and 375 bps above ECB’s rate. It’s also necessary to note that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to tighten its policy and lift the rates from current 0.1% level. As a result, the analysts expect that Aussie is going to strengthen getting strong stimulus from the carry trades: investors will borrow in countries with lower interest rates investing in higher-yielding Australian assets. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6325 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 "BNP Paribas: EUR, GBP, AUD and CAD will grow"(2011-02-24) Currency strategists at BNP Paribas note that Brent crude is positively correlated with the value of euro, British pound, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar. As the technical outlook for Brent is bullish, the specialists believe that the pair EUR/USD may reach 1.3950/1.4000, the pair GBP/USD can go up towards 1.6460, the pair AUD/USD will come back to resistance in the 1.0200/55 area and the pair USD/CAD may retest strong support at 0.9820/00. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6327 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 "Commerzbank: short-term GBP outlook"(2011-02-24) The pair EUR/GBP managed to get above resistance in the zone between 0.8448 and 0.8482. Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that downside momentum for the single currency is decreasing. Euro’s trying to recover versus sterling and resistance is found at 0.8530 and 0.8588. График. H4 EUR/GBP The pair GBP/USD stalled ahead of 1.63. The specialists say that as pound went down below support at 1.6160, it risks falling down to 1.61. Below that level support will lie at 1.5963 and 1.5822 (the 55-day MA). График. H4 GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6329 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 "RBC: USD/CAD is trapped between 0.98 and 1.00"(2011-02-24) Currency strategists at RBC Capital Markets note that the pair USD/CAD had peaked on Wednesday just below 0.9960 before falling back to last week's minimums in the 0.9817 area. The specialists think the greenback will find firm support at these levels. According to RBC, the range between 0.98 and 1.00 within which US dollar is trading versus its Canadian counterpart this year seems hard to break. График. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6332 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 "MIG Bank: USD/CHF under bearish pressure below 0.9506"(2011-02-24) Technical analysts at MIG Bank note that as the greenback dropped below 0.9400 versus Swiss franc it lost the support of practically all positive technical factors. The specialists believe that only if the pair USD/CHF manages to rise above the week’s maximum at 0.9506, it will be able to experience some sort of rebound. According to the bank, as long as US currency’s trading below this level, it risks slumping to 0.9100 and 0.9000. Chart. H4 USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6334 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 "Mizuho: GBP/USD may rise to 1.6500"(2011-02-24) British pound went down from 1.6255 to the support at 1.6140 and then rose back to 1.6200. Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that sterling’s consolidating below November maximums at 1.6300. The specialists claim that the pair GBP/USD will get support from the 9-day MA. According to Mizuho, pound’s rate will get higher before a significant short-covering occurs. The bank advises investors to buy on the rate’s decline to 1.6160 stopping below 1.6100 and expecting pound to climb to 1.6260/1.6300 and then to 1.6500. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6336 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 "Citigroup: EUR/USD will rise to 1.4283"(2011-02-25) Technical analysts at Citigroup claim that the single currency may rise above 1.4000 versus the greenback after it formed the reverse “head-and-shoulders” pattern that consists of 3 bottoms with the deepest in the middle. The figure began on February 2. According to Citigroup, the pair EUR/USD may climb to 1.4030 and 1.4283. The specialists note that the expectations of the ECB’s rate hike made the market players reconsider their previous bearish sentiment of euro. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6342 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 "Morgan Stanley: upward revision of euro forecast"(2011-02-25) Analysts at Morgan Stanley increased their forecasts for the European currency versus US dollar and Japanese yen. As the reason for the forecast revision the specialists named more hawkish comments that keep coming from the European central bank. The ECB officials have spoken so far about the necessity to tighten monetary policy in order to fight rising inflation. In addition, the bank underlines that the European authorities have shown more efforts to solve the euro area’s debt problems and managed to reduce the risk of the region’s contagion. Morgan Stanley changed target for the pair EUR/USD from $1.25 to $1.32 by March 31 and raised euro forecast from $1.20 to $1.24 by the end of the year. The pair EUR/JPY will trade at 111 yen at the end of March, while the previous estimate was at 108 yen. The year-end target for euro against yen was switched from 112 to 115 yen. It’s also important to note that the economists reduced their March-end prediction for the pair USD/JPY from 86 to 84 yen keeping the year-end forecast at 93 yen. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6344 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 "Sumitomo Mitsui: euro may climb to $1.4200"(2011-02-25) Currency strategists at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation believe that the single currency may keep gaining in the next few weeks. The specialists expect that the oil prices will remain very strong due to the tensions in the Middle East driving euro’s rate up as inflation in the euro area will increase encouraging the expectations that the European Central Bank will lift up interest rates. Of course the inflationary pressure in the United States will strengthen as well. The analysts, however, think that the Fed will fall behind the ECB in the monetary tightening as higher oil prices could have a very negative impact on the American economy and the US monetary authorities will remain keen on the stimulus policy to support the country’s economic rebound. In addition, there are the political concerns affecting the greenback: investors are worrying that the popular protests against pro-US governments in countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia signal that US global power is waning. According to Sumitomo Mitsui, the pair EUR/USD may climb above 1.4150 and, possibly, even above 1.4200. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6346 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 "Commerzbank: comments on EUR/GBP"(2011-02-25) The single currency rose from Friday’s minimum at 0.8360 to new month maximum at 0.8575 just below the resistance of the middle-term trend line connecting October 2010 to January 2011 maximums. Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that the pair EUR/GBP has already reached its peak. In their view, it will ease down to support at the levels between 0.8530 and 0.8490. Above these levels the near-term outlook for euro will be bullish. Chart. Daily EUR/GBP Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6348 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 "Zuercher Kantonalbank: comments on EUR/CHF"(2011-02-25) The European currency went down this week from Monday’s maximum versus Swiss franc at 1.2975 to yesterday’s minimum at 1.2705. Analysts at Zuercher Kantonalbank claim that in order to obtain a chance of recovery the pair EUR/CHF has to close this week above 1.2800. In such case euro will be able to rise to 1.2890. On the contrary, if the pair ends today’s trade below 1.2730, next week it’ll be poised for declines. Chart. H4 EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6350 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 "Mizuho: euro will rise in case of weekly close above $1.38"(2011-02-25) The single currency rose versus US dollar from the 1.3430 zone in the middle of February to new 3-week maximums in the 1.3840 region today. Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that the pair EUR/USD has closed on Wednesday and Thursday above 61% Fibonacci retracement resistance at 1.3740 and above the upper edge of the “flag” pattern that indicates continuation of the trend. The specialists claim that momentum is bullish and euro may keep appreciating if it manages to close the week above 1.3800. In such case there will be the second round of short-covering. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6352 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 "HSBC: RBA rate forecast"(2011-02-25) Economists at HSBC believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t raise the interest rates in March. However, the specialists note that the risks of inflation surge remain. In their view, in 2011 the RBA will increase its benchmark rate by 50 basis points from the current levels of 4.75%. Although the markets are currently pricing in the rate hike in November, HSBC thinks that it will happen earlier. According to the analysts, Australian inflation has constrained by the strong national currency and low consumer demand. Now the situation’s changing and these factors won’t be holding down inflation anymore. While the global inflation is going up, the country has an undersupply of housing and power stations that’s boosting rents and electricity prices. In addition, wages in Australia are also increasing. Taking into account the current strength of the country’s economy, the central bank’s policy may be not tight enough. RBA is aware of these risks, HSBC. As a result, there a bunch of factors that that can justify the next rate hikes. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6354 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 "UBS: use yen and franc to fund carry trades"(2011-02-25) Analysts at UBS AG claim that it became profitable to use Japanese yen and Swiss franc as funding currencies for carry trades to invest in higher-yielding assets. The specialists advise investors to borrow in yen and franc to buy Swedish krona, Norwegian krone, euro and Canadian dollar. Norwegian krone and euro are included in this list as because the potential move in yields is going to be bigger because they’re coming from a lower base. As exchange rates volatility may derail benefits from carry trade, it’s necessary to wait until turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa fades before elaborating such strategy. Borrowing in yen and selling it to buy SEK, NOK, CAD and EUR has returned 33% this year. The same trade, funded by the franc, has returned 17%. Last year carry traders lost 11% on yen and 7.6% on franc. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the EBC to increase the rate by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter and Canada’s and Norway’s central banks to raise rates by the same amount in the second quarter. Sweden’s Riksbank that has already lifted up borrowing costs for 5 times since the beginning of July may hike by 25 bps 4 more times this year. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6356 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 "S&P: New Zealand’s rating won’t be lowered for now"(2011-02-25) New Zealand’s dollar gained versus its US counterpart for the second day in a row as the Standard & Poor’s claimed that in the near term at least the country’s credit rating isn’t affected by the earthquake that broke out on February 22. The rating agency said that it’s too early to make judgments about the extent of damage to New Zealand’s economy. According to S&P specialists, New Zealand’s financial system remains operational and will support an inevitable period of increased activity associated with the extensive reconstruction and repair work. The pair NZD/USD went up from Wednesday’s minimum in the 0.7430 area rising above 0.7500. Strategists at ANZ National Bank expect that kiwi’s rate will get support from the coming short-covering. Never the less, the bank says that the county’s GDP will lose minimum 0.5 percentage points because of the earthquake. The analysts at CMC Markets note that from growth and interest-rate point of view, New Zealand’s will likely remain under pressure. 4 out of 8 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predict that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut its 3% benchmark rate by at least 25 points. A central bank spokesman yesterday refused to comment on speculation about the unscheduled meeting that may be held to consider potential rate change. Chart. H4 NZD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6358 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2011-02-28) Weekly GBP/USD British currency didn’t manage to renew maximums during the past week. On the other hand, the GBP/USD retreated to 1.6100. The general uptrend, however, remained: the Ichimoku Cloud is rising, while Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen still hold the “golden cross” in place (3) though the pattern isn’t as powerful as it used to be. Never the less, all lines remain horizontal that points at the continuous sideways trade. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD Despite generally positive background, last week the bulls didn’t manage to keep rebounding pound’s rate. The 1.6250 level generated serious resistance and, as a result, the market reversed downwards and by Friday got inside the Tenkan-Kijun channel (3, 4). Senkou Span A (1) and Tenkan-sen (3), however, remained heading upwards. Taking into account the possible reverse character of Friday’s candle (there was a “hammer” formed), it’s possible to assume that this week the prices will once again get above the Turning line and will test the recent highs. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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