FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish "Harami"

12/6/2016

 

 

We’ve got a “Shooting Star” at the local high, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the market is likely going to get the nearest support line, which could be a departure point for another upward movement. As we can see on the Daily chart, we don’t have any reversal pattern so far. In this case, the pair will probably test the 21 Moving Average later on.

 

 

There’s a “Harami” at the last high, which has been confirmed enough. Also, we’ve got a “Three Methods” here, so the market is likely going to continue moving up until any bearish pattern arrives.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11600

[riki143]

USD/JPY: local "Engulfing"

12/6/2016

 

 

The 21 Moving Average acted as a support. Moreover, we’ve got a “Harami” pattern, but its confirmation is a quite weak. So, bears are likely going to move on. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “High Wave” pattern, so there’s an opportunity to have a local bearish correction.

 

 

We’ve got a local “Engulfing” pattern. If it confirms, bears will probably try to deliver a new low.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11601

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave 2 ended

12/6/2016

 

 

It seems like wave 2 ended in a form of a flat, so we’ve got a bullish impulse in wave [c]. If the price finds a lodgement under 0/8 MM Level, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish impulse in wave . The nearest intraday target is -1/8 MM Level.

 

 

As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave (v) of [v] finished near +1/8 MM Level. The price is declining, so we could have wave (i) in progress. In this case, we should keep an eye on 6/8 MM Level as the nearest bearish target.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11602

[riki143]

Consequences of the Italian referendum

12/6/2016

 

 

The euro managed to recover from early losses following the uncanny NO vote to the changes in Italian constitution. Polls showed that an overwhelming majority regarded the referendum as a chance to express dissatisfaction with the Renzi’s government performance. PM Matteo Renzi will have to resign now. Italy will face a new election which could finish with preposterous win of the populist, far-right Five movement party. What does it mean for Italia and Eurozone? 

 

As we can see market managed to digest the negative outcome of the referendum. There was no clamoring for havens. Investors managed to go through this Tumplike, Brexitlike shock. But the question is still open whether the European monetary union manages to survive an era of populist politicians and diverging economies or not. Many strategists believe that the currency union is strong enough to pass through the avalanche effect of the populist wins, as Europeans appreciate the benefits of the single currency. Despite multiple pledges to return national currencies, they will unlikely be able to bring their plans into an effect. Take a look at the left-wing Syriza party which took control of Greece in 2015 promising its electorate to return to the drachma. Yet Greece stomached capital controls, numerous bailouts and didn’t leave the euro area.

 

However, the rise to power of the populist Five Star Movement may not lead to “Grexit” and Eurozone crumbling, the consequences of the recent referendum still can bring some troubles. Many observers believe that Renzi’s defeat worsens the problems of Italy’s banking system, and particularly of its most tittering, crisis-prone bank, Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS). The government has solicited institutional investors to recapitalize it, but many had made investment conditional on a Yes vote. So, as you can see there will be unlikely any bail-out for MSC from the government. MPS can be nationalized now, or rescued under new European Union rules that would hit investors in the pockets who hold MPS’s subordinated debt. 

So far, the euro has already survived one of the ground-shaking events that we’ve identified in our previous article. Next year will pose some more tests for the euro area. There will be elections in Germany, France and the Netherlands. So, it is probably too early discard the risk of the Eurozone breakup. Time will show, and we, from our side, will keep our fingers crossed for the euro.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11603

[riki143]

EUR/USD rising inside minor corrective wave (iv)

12/6/2016

 

EUR/USD rising inside minor corrective wave (iv)

Next buy target – 1.0850

EUR/USD recently rose sharply inside the minor corrective wave (iv) – which started earlier – when the pair reversed up from the powerful, long-term support level 1.0550, which stopped the earlier strong downtrend in December of 2015, as can be seen below. The support zone near the support level 1.0550 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the support trendline of the weekly down channel from May.

 

EUR/USD is expected to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0850 (previous strong support from October), intersecting with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from August.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11604

[riki143]

GBP/AUD broke resistance zone

12/6/2016

 

GBP/AUD broke resistance zone

Next buy target - 1.7650

GBP/AUD continues to rise after the recent breakout of the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.6960 (which stopped the previous a-wave of the active minor ABC correction 2 from the end of October) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 from the middle of September.  The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active minor c-wave.

 

GBP/AUD is expected to rise further in the active c-wave toward the next buy target at the strong resistance level 1.7650, which reversed the previous waves A and (2), as can be seen below.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11605

[riki143]

USD/CAD & BoC Interest Rate Decision: Further bullish momentum for the Loonie?

12/7/2016

 

Today at 15:00 GMT will be released the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision, which overnight rate is expected to remain on hold at 0.5%. The cCentral bank could bring some hints about current export situations that could see some slowdown because of current global demand and also, the Canadian government is looking to stabilize housing market and it should be interesting to read what the BoC has to say about it.

 

Our technical analysis for USD/CAD at H4 chart is showing a bearish consolidation in progress below the 200 SMA and that should put in danger further bullish outlooks for the Loonie, at least in the short-term. If the pair manages to break below the support level of 1.3234, it can extend the decline to test the 1.3172 level, while a hawkish statement by the Bank of Canada can make the USD/CAD pair to test the 200 SMA once again.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11606

[riki143]

USD/JPY: yen lost its way in broad daylight

12/7/2016

 

On the USD/JPY daily chart, there is a consolidation within an uptrend. An update of the December high will allow prices to continue their rally towards 119. Alternatively, a successful test of the correction minimum at 112.85 can lead to the rollbacks towards 111.35.

 

 

On the USD/JPY hourly chart, AB = CD patterns indicate near-term targets of the uptrend. They are located at 116.9 and 117.15. A return of quotes in the borders of rising trading channel followed by the test of the resistance at 114.75 will be a signal for opening long positions.

 

 

Recommendations:

 

BUY 114,75 SL 114,2 TP 116,9,

 

BUY 113,15 SL 113,7 TP1 112 TP2 111,35. 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11607

[riki143]

USD/CAD: bears are developing correction

12/7/2016

 

On the USD/CAD daily chart, there is a correction towards the uptrend. If the "bulls" fail to keep the quotes above the lower boundary of the rising trading channel, the "Shark" pattern may be realized. Its 88.6% target is located near the 1,305 level.

 

 

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, "Shark" and "Crab" patterns, as well as the levels of Fibonacci retracement to the last upward wave indicate the location of the convergence areas. They are located near the 1,318 and 1,308 marks. Rebounds from these levels will be a signal for opening long positions.

 

 

 

Recommendation:

 

BUY 1,318 SL 1,3125 TP1 1,34 TP2 1,36,

 

BUY 1,308 SL 1,3025 TP1 1,3275 TP2 1,34. 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11608

[riki143]

Morning brief for December 7, 2016

12/7/2016

 

AUD/USD slumped to 0.7417 after Q3 GDP data indicated the biggest decline in over 5 years. Many analysts expect it to rebound in Q4 pointing at surging metal prices.

 

NZD/USD changed only a little on the session. The pair is trading below 0.7125. We will hear RBNZ Governor Wheeler speaking at 10:00 pm GMT+2. His speech should bring some moves to the chart.

 

EUR/USD moved higher to 1.0725 on the Asian session. The US dollar is still one of the strongest currencies as market cherishes a thought of the Fed’s rate hike. The euro is on the razor’s edge as the ECB is expected to announce an extension of QE on Thursday. Today’s focus is on the US JOLTS job openings.

 

USD/JPY took a few baby steps towards 114.20. There should some more JPY weakening versus USD.  Earlier this morning we had BOJ deputy Governor Iwata on the wires who said that BOJ will continue its powerful monetary easing actions via asset purchases and interest rates.

 

GBP/USD fell below 1.2660 in the course of the session. The pound managed to stabilize earlier. Brexit minister David Davis indicated recently that the government could consider paying to the EU to remain access to the single market. This announcement pushed GBP higher. At the present moment, the market is waiting for the Supreme Court’s decision on whether the government needs an approval of Parliament before triggering Article 50. Strategists believe that if parliament wins the case it may delay Brexit beyond 2017 March. Today you should keep an eye on the UK manufacturing production.

 

USD/CAD edged up to 1.3290 on the session. Today, the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on the interest rate at 5:00 pm GMT+2. It is expected to remain on hold at 0.5%. We see more USD/CAD upside going forward driven by the Fed hike, tepid pace of Canadian growth and uncertainty over US-Canada trade relationships. The oil prices will unlikely offer support to loonie; the OPEC’s push should fade away soon. 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11609

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Breakaway Gap" going to act as a support

12/7/2016

 

 

We’ve got a “Double Top”, which has been formed under the 89 Moving Average. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards a support area at 1.0655 – 1.0594 in the short term. If a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.0815 – 1.0850.

 

 

The 34 Moving Average acted as a support, so the price is consolidating. Also, we’ve got a “Flag” pattern, so bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.0666. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.0795 – 1.0815.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11610

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Double Top" led to decline

12/7/2016

 

 

The price faced a resistance at 1.2770, so we’ve got a “V-Top” pattern here. In this case, the market is likely going to decline towards a support by the trend. If bears be stopped here, there’ll be an option to have another bullish movement, so we should keep an eye on a resistance at 1.2770 – 1.2795 as a possible intraday target.

 

 

There’s a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed. Meanwhile, the 55 Moving Average is acting as a support, but the price is likely going to continue falling down in the direction of the 89 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line be on the table, bulls will have a chance to deliver a new high.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11611

[riki143]

EUR/USD: correction may continue

12/7/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 1.0690, 1.0640; resistance – 1.0790, 1.0830/40.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 1.0690; SL — 1.0670; TP1 — 1.0790; TP2 – 1.0840.

 

2. Buy — 1.0730; SL — 1.0710; TP1 — 1.0790; TP2 – 1.0840.

 

Reason: bearish mood of Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span A; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and the rising Tenkan-sen; the prices are on the support of Tenkan.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11613

[riki143]

AUD/USD: bulls have lost its positions

12/7/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 0.7430; resistance – 0.7490.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 0.7450; SL — 0.7430; TP1 — 0.7490; TP2 — 0.7540.

 

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud and falling Senkou Span B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the prices breaking down the Tenkan’s support.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11614

[riki143]

USD/CAD: forecasts from banks ahead of the BOC meeting

12/7/2016

 

Today, the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on the interest rate at 5:00 pm GMT+2. The market expects the BOC to keep policy rates on hold at 0.5%. The focus will be on the tone of the board’s statement.

 

The recent data releases are half-and-halfer. Q3 GDP outpaced the BOC’s October forecasts, driven by the increase in exports from Q2 and relatively strong household consumption. The business sentiment is still weak, however. This will likely make the board’s members cautious about a strong upsurge in manufacturing in the upcoming quarters. Labor data is rather strong.

 

The Merrill Lynch analysts expect a sustained move higher in USD/CAD towards the end of the year driven by the following factors: a faster pace of Fed hikes because of Trump’s expansionary fiscal policies; a tepid pace of Canadian growth; heightened uncertainty with respect to Canadian trade with the USA. Surging US yields will probably be the main hurdle for the BOC’s cuts in the nearest future. The CAD may be supported, however, in the near-term, if oil prices continue their rally.

 

BofA Merrill USD/CAD targets are following: at 1.36 by the end of the year; at 1.38, 1.40, 1.41, 1.43 by the end of Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 of 2017 accordingly.

 

Nomura analysts believe that the BOC will leave its policy rate at o.5 %. They point at Stephen Poloz’s recent comments. The BOC Governor said Canada’s data little changed since the October meeting, suggesting the Communique is likely to be little changed.

 

 

Credit Agricole says that CAD has become really vulnerable to significant interest rate differentials (the divergence existing between the monetary stances of BOC and Fed). So, they believe that this will keep USD/CAD close to 1.35 into the year-end remaining rather bearish outlook for oil prices in the near-term. 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11615

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave started

12/7/2016

 

 

We’ve got wave 2, which has formed a flat pattern. So, there’s an opportunity to have a bearish impulse in wave in the short term. In this case, the price is likely going to break -1/8 MM Level soon.

 

 

As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave (v) of [c] is truncated. Also, there’s a downward impulse in wave (i). Therefore, bears are likely going to deliver wave (iii) during the day. The main intraday target is 4/8 MM Level.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11618

[riki143]

Fifth element and Power Ranger swing trading strategies

12/7/2016

 

Fifth element

 

The main advantage of the fifth element strategy is that tells you ahead of time when the entry price will be, so you should spend lots of time in front of the screen waiting for the right to snatch a whaling sum of money.

 

Key Ingredients:

 

Timeframe – H1, H4.

 

Trading tools – fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, MACD SMA 9

 

Currency pairs – EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD. USD/CHF, USD/CAD. AUD/USD, NZD/USD.

 

Strategy concept

 

MACD histogram indicates the direction and momentum of the market. If the MACD histogram switches from negative to positive, this is a signal of the possible upward shift in momentum. You should wait for 5 positive bars on the histogram to confirm the momentum before going long on the fifth bar (that’s why this strategy is dubbed “fifth element”; it’s not after Luc Besson’s film). If the MACD histogram switches from positive to negative, this means that you should open short positions (the rule of the fifth bar remains in force).

 

 

Long trade setup

 

Wait until the MACD histogram goes from negative to positive.

Wait for 4 positive bars to appear on the histogram before entering the market long on the opening of the fifth bar.

You should place the stop loss at the last low of the histogram.

You have 2 profit targets with risk to reward ratios – 1:1 and 1:2 accordingly. For example, the risk of you trade is 150 points, and the reward is 300 points if both targets are fulfilled. The risk to reward ratio is 1:2, which yields a tidy 6% return if we take a 3% risk.

 

Power Ranger strategy

 

The strategy works with the hourly and 4-hourly chart.

 

Trading tools – we use stochastic for this strategy with the following settings:

 

%K period = 10

 

%D period = 3

 

Slowing = 3

 

Price field = high/low

 

MA method = simple

 

Levels 20 and 80

 

Reminder – stochastic is an indicator that measures overbought and oversold conditions in the market.

 

Currency pairs – EUR/USD. USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF. USD/CAD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD

 

The basic concept of the strategy is that a range should be formed after the market stops trading. Stochastic helps us to identify a possible range formation. We also should pay attention to the current market momentum to tell us whether we should go long or short. If the market is moving up, we may go long in the range. The entry point can be found with the help of Stochastic (it should be below level 20  - in the oversold area). If the market is moving down, we should go short in the range. The entry point can be found in the overbought area (above level 80) of the Stochastic indicator. The power ranges strategy has two profit targets – the first one should be taken within the range. The second target is located beyond the range in anticipation of a breakout.

 

 

Long trade setup

 

Identify an uptrend line

Take a look at the stochastic for %K and %D to go below level 20 (oversold area).

Find support and resistance of the range. You may enter long when stochastic steps into the oversold area (above 20 level)

You should place your first profit target at the 75% mark of the range. The stop loss should be set at a risk to reward ratio of 1:2. After calculation, the stop loss must be placed below the support level. If not, the trade is considered invalid.

Beware! It doesn’t mean that you go long whenever the stochastic is in the oversold region or go short whenever the stochastic is in the overbought region. You should identify momentum before entering the market. 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11619

[riki143]

Key option levels for Wednesday, December 7th

12/7/2016

 

EUR/USD

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Neutral

Changes in the open interest -No data- -No data-

Closest resistance levels 1.0733; 1.0749; 1.0782; 1.0807

Closest support levels 1.0707; 1.0684; 1.0640; 1.0609

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0707, with target points at 1.0684 and 1.0640

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0733 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0749 and 1.0782

 

USD/JPY

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Neutral

Changes in the open interest -No data- -No data-

Closest resistance levels 114.08; 114.26; 114.44; 114.73

Closest support levels 113.83; 113.61; 113.25; 112.79

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 113.83, with the target points at 113.61 and 113.25

Alternative scenario Moving above 114.08 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 114.26 and  114.44

 

USD/CAD

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Bullish

Changes in the open interest -No data- -No data-

Closest resistance levels 1.3300; 1.3319; 1.3365; 1.3435

Closest support levels 1.3259; 1.3217; 1.3149; 1.3070

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3300, with the target points at 1.3319 and 1.3365

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3259 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3217 and 1.3149

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11620

[riki143]

EUR/USD: local "Harami"

12/7/2016

 

 

We’ve got a “Shooting Star” and a “Tower”, which both have been confirmed. So, the current bearish correction is likely going to move on towards the nearest “Window”. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “Harami” at the local high, so bears are likely going to deliver a new local low. At the same time, there’s an opportunity to have another upward movement in the direction of the 21 Moving Average.

 

 

The price is consolidating, but we have a “Harami” at the last high, so the market is likely going to test the Moving Averages. If a pullback from these line happens, bulls will probably try to reverse the price movement into an upward direction.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11621

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bearish "Tower"

12/7/2016

 

 

The 13 & 21 Moving Average acted as a support, so there’s a bearish “Engulfing”, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish movement. As we can see on the Daily chart, there isn’t any bearish pattern so far. In this case, bulls are likely going to move on.

 

 

We’ve got a “Tower”, a “High Wave” and a “Two Crows”, which all have been confirmed enough. Under this circumstances, the 55 Moving Average is likely going to act as a support, which could be a departure point for another bullish rally.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11622

[riki143]

GBP/CAD reversed from resistance zone

12/7/2016

 

GBP/CAD reversed from resistance zone

Next sell target – 1.6400

GBP/CAD continues to decline – after the recent downward reversal from the resistance zone lying between the round resistance level 1.7000, upper daily Bollinger Band, resistance trendline of the wide daily down channel from January and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from June. The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the previous minor ABC correction 2.

 

GBP/CAD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.6400 (which stopped the B-wave of the previous ABC correction (2) in November).

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11623

[riki143]

EUR/GBP reversed from support zone

12/7/2016

 

EUR/GBP reversed from support zone

Next buy target - 0.8600

EUR/GBP recently reversed up sharply from the support zone lying between the support level 0.8350 (which also earlier reversed the previous minor correction 4 at the start of September), the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp upward impulse wave © from the end of May.

 

The upward reversal from the aforementioned support zone stopped the previous minor impulse waves (iii) and 3, which belong to the intermediate ©-wave from the start of November. EUR/GBP is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.8600.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11624

[riki143]

EUR/USD & ECB interest rate decision - Next step: parity zone?

12/8/2016

 

Today’s ECB meeting at 12:45 GMT will be the last of the year, but also, it will be one of the most important, ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The central bank has been keeping unchanged the interest rates but at the same time, according to Mario Draghi’s words, it keeps the doors opened to further stimulus and that could get materialized in today’s meeting. Some analysts are expecting that the ECB will extend it’s QE program.

 

Our technical analysis for EUR/USD at H4 chart is showing a recovery ongoing and it’s heading towards the 200 SMA. If the meeting comes in with hawkish words for Eurozone’s economy, the pair may attempt a breakout above the resistance level of 1.0859, while some negative words or drastic measures could weigh on the Euro and it could consolidate below the 1.0600 psychological level.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11625

[riki143]

AUD/USD: bulls are dreaming of revenge

12/8/2016

 

On the AUD/USD daily chart, a breakout of the resistance at 0.749 can activate the "Bat" inverted pattern followed by the return of quotes to the lower boundary of the last upward trading channel. There is 88.6% target of the "Bat" pattern. The outlook for this pair is still "bearish", so the sales on the rebounds are relevant. 

 

 

On the AUD/USD hourly chart, quotes are moving within the upward trading channel. The roll back from its upper boundary or unsuccessful test of the resistance at 0.757 (target 161.8% in the AB = CD pattern) will be the signal for the opening short positions.

 

 

Recommendations:

 

SELL 0,7545 SL 0,761 TP 0,74,

 

SELL 0,757 SL 0,7625 TP 0,75. 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11626

[riki143]

EUR/USD: euro waits for a rollercoaster ride

12/8/2016

 

On the EUR/USD daily chart, there is a correction towards the downtrend. A breakout of the upper boundary of the bars, formed on December 5-6, will increase the risk of rollback towards 1,093. This mark corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level formed from the last downward wave.

 

 

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, an expanding wedge reversal pattern has been formed on the basis of the "Three Indians". A successful test of the resistance at 1,08-1,0815 will pave the way towards the 1.091-1.093 convergence area (50% Fibo level from the last downward wave and target 224% in the pattern AB = CD).

 

 

Recommendations:

 

BUY 1,0815 SL 1,076 TP 1,0925,

 

SELL 1,0925 SL 1,098 TP1 1,077 TP2 1,05. 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11627