FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News

[riki143]

Key option levels for Friday, November 11th

11/11/2016

 

EUR/USD

 

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Neutral

Changes in the open interest + 196 635 ? + 229 640 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.0920(?); 1.0948; 1.0976; 1.1017

Closest support levels 1.0883; 1.0864; 1.0834; 1.0789

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.0920, with target points at 1.0948 and 1.0976

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.0883 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.0864 and 1.0834

 

 

GBP/USD

 

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 1 027 ? - 16 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.2588; 1.2608/15; 1.2650; 1.2685

Closest support levels 1.2548; 1.2512; 1.2482; 1.2441

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.2588, with target points at 1.2608 and 1.2650

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2548 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2512 and 1.2482

 

 

USD/JPY

 

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bearish Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 2 562 ? + 3 739 ?

Closest resistance levels 106.99; 107.22; 107.47; 107.63

Closest support levels 106.32; 106.04; 105.85; 105.62

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 106.32, with the target points at 106.04 and 105.85

Alternative scenario Moving above 106.99 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 107.22 and  107.47

 

 

USD/CAD

 

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Bullish

Changes in the open interest + 34 ? + 331 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.3514; 1.3541; 1.3578; 1.3628

Closest support levels 1.3448; 1.3408; 1.3385; 1.3355

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3514, with the target points at 1.3541 and 1.3578

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3448 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3408 and 1.3385

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11274

[riki143]

EUR/USD: on October lows

11/11/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 1.0860; resistance – 1.0920, 1.0990.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 1.0920; SL — 1.0940; TP1 — 1.0870; TP2 – 1.0840.

 

Reason: bearish character of Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11275

[riki143]

USD/JPY: overbought market

11/11/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 105.70, 104.00; resistance – 107.00.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 105.70; SL — 105.50; TP1 — 106.50; TP2 — 107.00.

 

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span A; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and rising Tenkan-sen; but there is an overbought market.

 

 

More;

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11276

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Inverted Hammer" stopped bears for a while

11/11/2016

 

 

We’ve got a “High Wave” at the local low, but a confirmation of this pattern isn’t enough. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest support line once again. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s another “High Wave”, but this patterns is unconfirmed as well, so bears are likely going to move on.

 

 

There’s a consolidation in progress. Also, we’ve got an “Inverted Hammer” at the local low, which has been confirmed. However, the current upward price movement could be just a correction, so there’s an opportunity to have a new low afterwards.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11277

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls going to test high again

11/11/2016

 

 

The upper “Window” brought a lot of bearish patterns such a “Tweezers”, a “Doji” and a “Harami”. However, all these patterns haven’t been confirmed yet. So, it’s likely to have a downward correction in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. If we see any bearish pattern later on, there’ll be time for a correction.

 

 

We’ve got a “Tweezers” on the one-hours chart. Moreover, there’s a support by the 13 Moving Average. So, the market is likely going to test the last high once again. At the same time, there’s an opportunity to see an achievement of the 34 Moving Average.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11278

[riki143]

What’s new in the commodity markets?

11/11/2016

 

Most industrial metals have recently rallied on the Donald Trump’s post-election promise to increase spending on the US infrastructure. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, if Trump manages to fulfill its pledge, prices on steel, iron ore, zinc, nickel, diesel and cement will increase. Meanwhile, the immediate “after-speech” effect is already evident. The prices on iron ore and copper got a boost. Copper futures jumped to $2.725 from $2.290 before the announcement of the election results. Iron ore spiked to $69.74 mark since Wednesday.

 

Gold futures rose 25% on the election night on the growing uncertainties over the slowdown in global economic growth, tempering investors’ expectations for the Fed’s hike in December. Then, gold futures fell to $1250.6 as people’s sentiments over the future of the US economy became positive.   

 

Brent oil futures skidded to $45.34 after the International Energy Agency said that US crude oil inventories increased at 2.4M. Prices may retreat further amid excessive global oil supply growth unless OPEC enacts significant output cuts. 

 

 

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11279

[riki143]

USD/JPY: outlook for November 14-18

11/11/2016

 

Of course, the US presidential election had a great impact on USD/JPY. Despite the fact that Trump’s victory had been seen as an extremely risk-negative outcome, demand for the yen was short-lived. After the initial panic the market has calmed down.

 

Actually, traders still expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates in December. The premium of US Treasury 10-year yields over Japanese government bonds is at the maximal level in 2.5 years. Higher rates make investors buy the greenback, especially on the back of some weaker domestic data from Japan. The yen was also affected by concerns that Trump will force unfavorable changes to trade between the United States and Japan: earlier he criticized the lack of import taxes on Japanese vehicles entering the US.

 

US economic data and the Fed members’ comments the next week will also further shape the expectations. Good figures and hawkish comments will make the greenback continue its move north, while worse-than-expected data and dovish statements will give the US currency as reason for correction to the downside versus the Japanese yen. In addition, Japan will release Q3 GDP on Monday. The nation’s economic growth is expected to accelerate from 0.7% to 1% on the annual basis. GDP growth from quarter to quarter is forecasted to remain unchanged at 0.2%.

 

USD/JPY fell towards 101.00 before breaking above September-October resistance line at 105.80. There’s a positive intersection of 50-day and 100-day MA. Technically above 200-day MA at 106.55 the way will be opened up to 107.50 and 108.25. Corrections to the downside should find support at 105.00, 104.30 and 103.00. 

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11280

[riki143]

EUR/GBP & ECB's Draghi speech post-US elections: Some hints of further Trump - ECB policies relationship?

11/14/2016

 

Today at 15:00 GMT we’ll have the first speech from ECB’s President Mario Draghi, following the US elections, in which the Republican nominee, Donald Trump won the race to become the next president. Most of the worldwide leaders from G20 countries have been expressing their opinions about US elections’ outcome, included some central bank leaders, so it will be interesting how Draghi will handle this topic during his today’s speech from Rome, Italy. Also, markets will be waiting for some words about QE program as well.

 

Our technical view for EUR/GBP at H4 chart is still pretty bearish, as the pair was of the most outperformers during the US elections’ week. It managed to consolidate strong losses below the 200 SMA and we can spot a support zone around 0.8603. A breakout below that area should open the doors to test the 0.8524 level. However, if we see a rebound at the current stage, with “positive” words from Draghi, then it can rally towards the 0.8701 level, but we think the upside will be limited by that area in a short-term basis, because of the overall structure.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11288

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bulls are taking the situation under control

11/14/2016

 

On the GBP/USD daily chart, after the target at 1.2375 has been fulfilled, "bulls" slowed down and allowed quotes to fall below the base of the 26th figure. However, the situation remains under the control of buyers. So, the opening of long positions is relevant.

 

 

On the GBP/USD hourly chart, an update of the November high can lead to the continuation rally towards 1,274-1,276, 1.28 and 1,289-1,2905. Rebound from the lower boundary of the upward short-term trading channel (1,2465-1,2575) will be a signal for the opening of long positions.

 

 

Recommendation: BUY 1,247 SL 1,2415 TP 1,275

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11289

[riki143]

USD/CAD: bulls change the trend

11/14/2016

 

On the USD/CAD daily chart, "bullish" trend is on the rise. Breakout of the resistance at 1.357 can lead to the continuation of the rally towards the upper boundary of the upward trading channel and then towards 1.3837. There is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the last long-term "bearish" wave. 

 

 

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, "bullish" trend is gaining momentum. If buyers manage to hold quotes above the upper boundary of the last upward trading channel, the way towards 1.37 will be opened. 

 

 

Recommendations: keep longs formed from the 1,3465 level. BUY 1,357 SL 1,3515 TP1 1,37 TP2 1,3837. 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11290

[riki143]

Morning brief for November 14, 2016

11/14/2016

 

USD/JPY soared above 107.4 in brisk morning trade. It got an additional fillip from data out of Japan. Quarterly preliminary GDP went ahead of expectation; inflation is still far away from hitting 2% target (-0.1%).

 

EUR/USD slid down below 1.0760 (its lowest since January). The US dollar gained momentum after Trump win on the anticipation of the faster domestic inflation and the Fed’s tightening. Additional support was offered by the rise in Treasury yields. Later today keep in focus the ECB President Mario Draghi speech scheduled for 17:00 (MetaTrader time). It is going to be his first public engagement after Trump’s victory. Traders will scrutinize it to know how Draghi sees the US election outcome and what will be with QE program.

 

NZD/USD dropped below 0.7070 after a massive earthquake that rocked New Zealand on Monday prompting a tsunami warning. The reconstruction works will be needed; they should spur already strong economy and eliminate the need for interest rate cuts. Later today we will receive some economic data from New Zealand (retail sales and core retail sales). Consensus forecasts warn us of some drops in figures. Kiwi should lose some additional points in response to the distorted data.

 

AUD/USD went higher on Monday showing a sign of recovery after the US election shock. The data from China released earlier today was rather smooth (not bad in general, but there were slight losses in retail sales), that’s what deterred Aussie from the further downfall. At the present moment, the pair is hovering above 0.7540.

 

In commodities, the gold fell to $1212.5 under pressure of strengthening greenback. Brent crude oil futures tumbled to $44.17 on Friday after OPEC reported that its production rose to its highest level on record and warned of a production surplus next year, despite an agreement to potentially cut output. Oil prices edged up since Friday having reached $44.70 mark. But against a backdrop of rising oil production and wrangles amid OPEC-members ahead of the Vienna meeting, these lame tries to growth don’t bring our spirits up. 

 

 

 

US Treasuries soared. What an impressive upsurge!

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11291

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish "Pennant"

11/14/2016

 

 

We’ve got a “V-Top” pattern, which led to the bearish rally. However, bears faced a support at 1.0777, so there’s a local correction on the way. Considering a “Flag” pattern, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.0744 – 1.0710. At the same time, there’s an opportunity to have an upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.0821 – 1.0850 afterwards.

 

 

The price found a support at 1.0777, so the pair is consolidating. Meanwhile, there’s a “Pennant” pattern, so bears are likely going to test a support at 1.0744 – 1.0710 shortly. If a pullback from this levels happens, there’ll be a chance to see another bullish correction.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11292

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bears going to test local uptrend

11/14/2016

 

 

The price is still consolidating above the broken downtrend. We’ve got a resistance at 1.2677, so there’s a “V-Top” pattern, which led to decline towards a support at 1.2556. Therefore, bears are likely going to move on, so we should keep an eye on a support near the local uptrend as a possible short term target.

 

 

Bulls faced a resistance at 1.2677, so we’ve got a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed. In this case, the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.2492 during the day. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11293

[riki143]

GBP/USD: on Tenkan and Kijun support

11/14/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 1.2520; resistance – 1.2610, 1.2680.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 1.2520; SL — 1.2500; TP1 — 1.2610; TP2 — 1.2680.

 

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but all lines of Ichimoku Indicator are horizontal; strong support of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11294

[riki143]

AUD/USD: bears reached the October lows

11/14/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 0.7520/30, 0.7490; resistance – 0.7580.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 0.7580; SL — 0.7600; TP1 — 0.7520; TP2 — 0.7490.

 

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud; dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on the October support; oversold market, waiting for the correction.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11295

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls are on the attack

11/14/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 106.90, 106.60; resistance – 107.70, 108.80.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 106.60; SL — 106.40; TP1 — 107.70; TP2 — 108.80.

 

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising lines of Ichimoku Indicator; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen over the Clouds; but there is an overbought market.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11296

[riki143]

Key option levels for Monday, November 14th

11/14/2016

 

EUR/USD

 

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bearish Neutral

Changes in the open interest - 307 959 ? - 199 904 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.0882; 1.0907/20;  1.0954; 1.0976

Closest support levels 1.0779; 1.0758; 1.0733; 1.0704

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0779, with target points at 1.0758 and 1.0733

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0882 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0907 and 1.0954

 

 

GBP/USD

 

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 1 094 ? + 646 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.2619; 1.2641; 1.2671; 1.2702

Closest support levels 1.2509; 1.2464; 1.2437; 1.2407

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2509, with target points at 1.2464 and 1.2437

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2619 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2641 and 1.2671

 

 

USD/JPY

 

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 183 ? + 453 ?

Closest resistance levels 107.75; 107.98; 108.26; 108.58

Closest support levels 106.46; 106.20/06; 105.71; 105.40

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 107.75, with the target points at 107.98 and 108.26

Alternative scenario Moving below 106.46 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 106.20 and  105.71

 

 

USD/CAD

 

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Bullish

Changes in the open interest + 379 ? + 632 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.3569; 1.3604; 1.3635; 1.3676

Closest support levels 1.3539; 1.3514; 1.3481; 1.3457

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3569, with the target points at 1.3604 and 1.3635

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3539 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3514 and 1.3481

 

 

 EUR JPY GBP CAD USD

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11298

[riki143]

EUR/USD outlook from banks

11/14/2016

 

Many banks are expecting the euro to fall in the near-term.

 

Credit Suisse is looking to sell the pair at 1.0980 with a target at 1.0765, or at 1.1025 with a target at 1.0625 (these are limit orders). The bank pays attention to the formation a “triangle” continuation pattern on the monthly timeframe which is close to breakdown. CS believes that the recent US dollar strengthening can be an augural sign of the long-awaited downfall.

 

Credit Agricole shares the same view over the euro growth perspectives on the back of the Fed’s monetary policy tightening.

 

Deutsche bank analysts scaled back its “bullish” EUR/USD overview and now feel more confident in their prediction of the EUR/USD breaking it 1.05 – 1.15 range. You would probably ask why? That’s why: US Treasuries are rising; the Fed seems ready to raise interest rate in December; Trump’s fiscal and regulatory easing could add further upside risk to the Fed’s outlook and US economic growth, while the recent rise in European real rates increases the odds of a more dovish ECB. DB’s forecast for the euro remains at 1.05 for the end of 2016.

 

While CS, CA, DB believe in further USD appreciation, Nordea remains skeptical in Trump’s capabilities to make the greenback great again. Bank’s analysts believe that there is no justification that Trump will be another Republican Reagan who will manage to produce another US economic miracle by introducing supply side policies and replacing “dovish” Yellen with Volcker-like “hawkish” Taylor.  Reagan was pro-free trade and pro-immigration president, while Trump is more anti-, anti- man. So, the fiscal stimulus achieved from his domestic policies will be offset by his foreign policy.

 

Nordea is also skeptical of the immediate effect of “Trumpian” expansionary fiscal measures on the US growth. At the present time, the USA have larger twin deficit (it needs foreign funding more than ever) and larger public debt than they used to have in times of Reagan’s presidency.  The recent rise in real yields can be delusional. During the Reagan years, these rises were justified, as US economy did experience the burst in productivity. At the present time, sluggish investment flows offer no hope for significant improvements in the US productivity in the upcoming years.

 

While in the near-term you may rely on the forecasts of the major banks of the USD strengthening, as there is a strong rationale behind their bets.  In the longer term, it would be wise to give ear to the Nordea’s prudent conclusions. 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11299

[riki143]

EUR/USD: unstoppable bears

11/14/2016

 

 

The market has been falling down since a pullback from the upper “Window” arrived. Also, we’ve got a “Three Methods” pattern, so bears are likely going to move on. If we see any reversal pattern on the nearest support level, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction. As we can see on the Daily chart, here isn’t any bullish pattern so far. In this case, it’s likely to see the price even lower.

 

 

We’ve got a new “Window” and a “Harami” pattern, which has been confirmed. So, the pair is likely going to decline towards the closest support, which could be a departure point for an intraday correction.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11300

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls going to move on

11/14/2016

 

 

The price is still rising, so we don’t have any reversal pattern so far, which means bulls are likely going to move on toward the upper “Window”. As we can see on the Daily chart, all last candles are bullish, so there’s an opportunity to see the market even higher.

 

 

We’ve got a new local high on the one-hour chart. However, there’s an option to have a local correction in the direction of the 13 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, bulls will probably try to move on.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11301

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave 1 going to be continued

11/14/2016

 

 

There’s a possible triangle in wave (Y) of . Also, we’ve got a pullback from 4/8 Murrey Math Line (P=200), so there’s a bearish impulse in wave 1 on the way. The main intraday target is -1/8 MM Level.

 

 

As we can see on the H4 chart, wave E of (Y) formed a zigzag. So, the price is declining in wave 1. It seems like, wave [iii] of 1 is going to be continued during the day.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11302

[riki143]

USD/JPY broke resistance zone

11/14/2016

 

USD/JPY broke resistance zone

Next buy target - 109.00 

USD/JPY has been rising sharply in the last few trading sessions inside the C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from the middle of August. The price today broke through the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the resistance level 107.50 (top of the earlier primary ABC correction ② from July) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous extended downward impulse from April.

 

The breakout of this resistance zone is expected to accelerate the active impulse wave C. USD/JPY is expected to rise to the next buy target at the nearby resistance level 109.00 (standing close to 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the aforementioned downward impulse from April).

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11303

[riki143]

EUR/USD broke strong support level 1.0850

11/14/2016

 

EUR/USD broke strong support level 1.0850

Next sell target - 1.0700

EUR/USD continues to fall after the earlier breakout of the strong support level 1.0850 (which reversed the earlier waves (a), 2 and (i), as can be seen below). The breakout of the support level 1.0850 intensified the bearish pressure on this currency par – accelerating the active C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from the middle of April.

 

EUR/USD is likely to fall to the next sell target at the support level 1.0700 (forecast price calculated for the completion of the active intermediate ABC correction (2)). This support level is also intersecting with the support trendline of the daily down channel from April.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11304

[riki143]

USD/JPY & US Retail Sales for October: Who can stop the US Dollar rally?

15/11/2016

 

Today at 13:30 GMT will be released the US retail sales for October and we’re expecting no changes from last reading of 0.6% in September. During the last data, we saw an increase in the number, following a decline posted in August, but market’s analysts are optimistic about further gains for October. This event is also expected to bring some hints about further topping or continuation in the US dollar index, which has been strengthening after Donald Trump’s victory as the new US president.

 

Our technical view for USD/JPY at H1 chart remains bullish, as the pair remains well consolidated above the 50 SMA, but it’s reaching extreme levels to the upside. Currently, USD/JPY is trading around the 123.6% Fibo extension and one cannot rule out further advances towards the 110.03 level, if retail sales come better-than-expected. In a weak or dovish scenario, the pair is expected to start a corrective move until the 106.24 level.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11305

[riki143]

Gold prices are under control of bears

15/11/2016

 

On the daily chart of gold, prices were stopped by the important support at $1210. It is located at 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last mid-term upward wave. A successful attack of "bears" can lead to the implementation of the "Perfect Butterfly." Its 127.2% target is located near the $1150 level. The nearest resistance can be found near the $1,250 level.

 

 

On the hourly chart of gold, until quotes rise to the lower boundary of the last upward trading channel ($1,275), "bears" will remain their control over the market. Resistance levels are located near the $1240 and $ 1260 levels.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11306