FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News

[riki143]

NZD/CAD reached buy target 0.9640

11/2/2016

 

NZD/CAD reached buy target 0.9640

Next buy target - 0.9800

NZD/CAD continues to rise sharply in the minor impulse wave 3 – which earlier broke through the resistance level 0.9640 (which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of the resistance level 0.9640 accelerated the active minor impulse 3 – which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the middle of October.

 

NZD/CAD is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.9800 (target price for the completion of the active minor impulse wave 3).

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11152

[riki143]

GBP/CAD broke key resistance level 1.6680

11/4/2016

 

GBP/CAD broke key resistance level 1.6680

Next buy target - 1.7000

GBP/CAD continues to rise – after the earlier breakout of the key resistance level 1.6680 (former support level and the lower boundary of the sideways price range inside which the pair has been trading from June). The breakout of the resistance level 1.6680 coincided with the breakout of the 50% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp downward impulse (5) from the middle of September.

 

GBP/CAD is likely to rise further in the accelerated minor impulse wave 3 (of the primary impulse III) toward the next buy target at the round resistance level 1.7000.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11187

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bearish "Harami"

11/4/2016

 

 

We’ve got a local bearish “Harami”, which has been confirmed. Considering that we don’t have any reversal pattern so far, bears are likely going to move on until any bullish sign arrives.

 

 

There’s a “High Wave” pattern at the last low, which has a confirmation. However, we’ve got a “Harami” at the local high, so there’s an opportunity to have an intraday bearish correction. If we see a pullback from the nearest support line, there’ll be an option to see more bullish pressure. 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11176

[riki143]

EUR/USD: local correction coming

11/4/2016

 

 

The price reached the nearest resistance, so we’ve got a “High Wave” on the Daily chart. If this pattern confirms, the market is likely going to test the 13 Moving Average. However, if a pullback from this line happens, bulls will probably try to deliver another upward movement.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11175

[riki143]

EUR/USD & US NFP October: A bullish USD ahead of US elections?

11/4/2016

 

Today at 12:30GMT we’ll have the US Non-Farm Payrolls for October, where the market’s consensus is calling for an increase to 175,000 jobs from 156,000 registered in September. This data should provide more clues about the timing that the Fed will hike rates and chances are still higher for December’s meeting. With that being said, it will be interesting the volatility that this number should provide to a weak US Dollar, which had been posting losses in the last few days, ahead of the US presidential elections on next Tuesday.

 

Our technical outlook for EUR/USD at H4 chart is still showing a bullish bias that had been strengthening in the last few days, as the US dollar remains bearish. The pair is consolidating its gains above the 200 SMA and one breakout above the resistance level of 1.1115, if data comes weaker than expected, should open the doors to test the 1.1190, while a breakout below the 1.1068 support area can push lower the pair towards 1.1018.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11177

[riki143]

USD/CHF: bulls are going to attack

 

On the USD/CHF daily chart,  the target 0.99 has been fulfilled, the "bears" were stopped by the lower boundary of the upward trading channel and intermediate target 78.6% in the "Shark" pattern. If quotes move above  the convergence zone at 0,9763-0,9768, it will be a signal of the end of the CD wave followed by the downward movement of the quotes towards 0.985 and 0.989.

 

 

On the USD/CHF hourly chart, the formation of the expanding wedge increases the risk of reversal of the downward short-term trend. A break of resistance at 0.9768 followed by the exit of quotes from the "bearish" trading channel could lead to the correction.

 

 

Recommendation: BUY 0,9768 SL 0,9713 TP 0,989

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11178

[riki143]

EUR/USD: local flat going to be continued

11/4/2016

 

 

Bulls faced a resistance at 1.1122, so we’ve got the current consolidation. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards the 89 Moving Average. However, we’ve got a “Double Bottom” pattern here, so there’s an opportunity to have a bullish price movement afterwards.

 

 

The price is consolidating between the nearest support at 1.1122 and the 34 Moving Average. Also, we’ve got a “Flag”, so the pair is likely going to test a resistance at 1.1122 once again. If a pullback from this level happens, bears will probably try to achieve the nearest support at 1.1069 – 1.1057.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11180

[riki143]

Gold: bulls need a rest

11/4/2016

 

On the daily chart of gold, the first ($ 1300) of two targets on the long positions has been fulfilled. "Bulls" were stopped by resistance at $1305. Quotes failed to hold above the convergence zone ($1298-1305) thereby creating prerequisites for the correction towards the short-term uptrend.

 

 

On the hourly chart of gold, the price rise above $1306 will be a signal of the continuation of their rally. On the contrary, a successful test of the lower boundary of the upward trade channel will strengthen the rollback risks towards $1,275. There is target 88.6% of the "Bat" pattern.

 

 

Recommendation: BUY $1306 SL $1290 TP $1340 BUY $1275 SL $1260 TP $1310.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11179

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bulls going to break downtrend

11/4/2016

 

 

Bulls have broken the last “Rectangle” pattern, but the price faced a resistance on the downtrend line afterwards. In this case, bulls is likely going to try to break this line and climb even higher. The main intraday target is a resistance at 1.2621.

 

 

We’ve got a local consolidation on the one-hour chart. It seems like bears are going to test a support at 1.2429 – 1.2399 during the day. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an option to have another upward price movement.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11181

[riki143]

GBP/USD: testing Senkou Span B

11/4/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 1.2350; resistance – 1.2480, 1.2520.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 1.2480; SL — 1.2500; TP1 — 1.2350; TP2 — 1.2310.

 

Reason: overbought market; irregular created bullish Ichimoku Cloud; golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; strong resistance of Senkou Span B.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11182

[riki143]

USD/JPY: oversold Dollar

11/4/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 103.05; resistance – 103.35, 103.90.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 103.20; SL — 103.00; TP1 — 103.90; TP2 — 104.30.

 

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud and falling Senkou Span A, but the oversold market; dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on the strong support.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11183

[riki143]

NFP forecasts from banks

11/4/2016

 

The consensus forecast for Non-Farm payrolls is 174K, for unemployment rate - 4.9%, for average hourly earnings - 0.3% 

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11184

[riki143]

Key option levels for Friday, November 4th

11/4/2016

 

EUR/USD

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 64 239 ? + 25 582 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.1127; 1.1152; 1.1173/87; 1.1203

Closest support levels 1.1093; 1.1068; 1.1041; 1.1023

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.1127, with target points at 1.1152 and 1.1173

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.1093 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.1068 and 1.1041

 

GBP/USD

 

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 3 897 ? + 3 532 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.2479; 1.2505; 1.2544/58; 1.2574

Closest support levels 1.2440; 1.2408; 1.2383; 1.2349

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.2479, with target points at 1.2505 and 1.2544

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2440 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2408 and 1.2383

 

USD/JPY

 

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bearish Neutral

Changes in the open interest + 1 174 ? + 14 723 ?

Closest resistance levels 103.56; 103.82; 104.14; 104.59

Closest support levels 102.84; 102.65; 102.39; 102.08

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 102.84, with the target points at 102.65 and 102.39

Alternative scenario Moving above 103.56 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 103.82 and  104.14

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11185

[riki143]

AUD/CAD reached buy target 1.0300

11/4/2016

 

AUD/CAD reached buy target 1.0300

Next buy target - 1.0400

AUD/CAD earlier broke through the resistance level 1.0300, which stopped the previous minor impulse wave (i) at the end of October and which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the resistance level 1.0300 is likely to accelerate the active minor impulse waves (iii) and 3 – both of which belong to the sharp intermediate impulse wave (3) from August.

 

AUD/CAD is likely to rise further toward the next buy target at the next round resistance level 1.0400. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the recently broken price level 1.0300.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11186

[riki143]

USD/JPY: weekly outlook for November 7-11

11/4/2016

 

USD/JPY fell from 105.2 to 102.4 on the growing concerns over the US election outcome. The greenback got some support from the decent US unemployment report and trade balance on Friday. On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan left its policy settings unchanged as broadly expected by the market. It also pushed back the timing for hitting the inflation target as its current monetary policy measures failed to weaken the yen.

 

The US presidential election scheduled for November 8 will be the key driver of USD/JPY currency pair over the short term. If Donald Trump wins the presidential race, JPY can rise significantly in the near-term, as more traders and investors sail in safe harbors. The nearest support for USD/JPY lies at 102.5 level. Once it’s broken, the pair could slide down further towards 102.00 and 101 levels.

 

If Hillary Clinton wins, the market reaction should be limited. USD/JPY could test 104.00 level and in the case of the breakout move further towards 106.9 mark located against 200-day moving average.

 

On Wednesday, watch for Japan’s current account data. If the report indicates surplus, the yen can edge up in relation to US dollar. On Thursday look through core machinery orders in search for the green shoots of Japan’s economic activity. On Friday, keep an eye on the producer price inflation data. 

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11188

[riki143]

AUD/USD: weekly outlook for November 7-11

11/4/2016

 

Aussie performed well in the course of this week but failed to break the resistance at 0.7700. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. The latest PMI surveys from China offered additional support to AUD and signaled that China’s economic growth has steadied. Commodity prices continue to rise giving Aussie a room for a further appreciation. On Friday, the RBA didn’t change its forecasts for inflation and economic growth but sounded dovish promising to introduce more easing if Australian economy needs a boost. Retail sales in September showed a slight increase (by 0.2%) followed by 0.3% rise in August.

 

Next week traders will be all eyes on the US presidential election that will take place on November 8, as there won’t be any significant releases, events that could bring big changes to the chart. Until this day AUD/USD will be trading below 0.7700. Whatever the outcome of the US election, Aussie should hold up better than other currencies given the rise in commodity prices, acceleration of China’s economic growth and accommodative monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia. A Trump win might cause Aussie to rise to 0.7800 (April’s high), as the Fed could disregard the need for the rate hike in December. As dust settles, Aussie’s precipitous surge should be followed by a downfall. A Clinton win could send AUD to 0.7300 and strengthen the greenback. Before 0.7300, there are some other supports located at 0.7600 (50-day MA on the daily timeframe), 0.7490 (200-day MA on the daily timeframe).

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11189

[riki143]

Crash course on the US voting system

11/4/2016

 

We’ve decided to fill you in on how the US votes are counted and how they aggregate a final result. Perhaps, this information can help you to form your own opinion of who might win the upcoming US presidential race.  

 

Americans don’t vote for their president directly; they vote for the electors who in turn support one of the candidates. Each state has a different number of electors depending on how money people live there. So, at the end of election day (November 8) there is a certain number of electors in each state who tend to support a Democratic or Republican nominee.  But this number cannot be simply assigned to a certain candidate because all states abide the principle “the winner takes all”. For example, there are 10 electors assigned for Missouri; 6 of them vote for Democrats, 4 electors vote for Republicans. The winner is a Democratic nominee as he/she got the majority of votes, leaving the Republicans empty-handed. The same procedure happens in each state. There are some states who usually vote for Republican or Democratic nominee; there are also some states where the outcome is less certain. These are so-called swing states. In total, there are 538 electors. The candidate who has more than a half of these electors on his/her side wins the election. Once the electors have been elected, it becomes clear who will be the president. However, the president won’t be officially elected until December 18, 2016, when all the electors of electoral college cast their votes on behalf of their states. Then, the electoral votes are counted by Congress which announces who will reside in the White House for the next 4 years.

 

You can find out how votes are distributed among the nominees; who is taking a lead in each state, according to the recent polls, by looking at the electoral map. 

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11190

[riki143]

US dollar: outlook for November 7-11

11/4/2016

 

American political factors will continue to be the main driver of the currency market. Investors and traders are waiting for the outcome of the presidential race. US dollar index (DXY) declined in the past week as opinion polls have tightened and the uncertainty surrounding the election is extremely high.

 

The Federal Reserve, as expected, changed neither its monetary policy, not its statement. The probability of December rate hike is still high, about 70%. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 161K in October, a bit missing the forecast, but still being high enough for the Fed to raise tares this year. In addition, growth of the average hourly earnings accelerated. 

 

The US presidential election will take place on Tuesday, November 8. The vote will take place across 6 time zones. The first state projections based on exit polls will appear at 02:00 Metatrader time on Wednesday. The earliest possible time the election will be “called” for either candidate by US TV networks is 06:00 Metatrader time. If Hillary Clinton wins the US presidential election, the greenback will sharply strengthen as the Fed will be expected to proceed with December rate hike. DXY will aim at 100.00. In case of Trump’s victory the index will be vulnerable for a decline to 92.00 as the Fed will probably have to stay on hold for longer.  

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11191

[riki143]

GBP/USD: outlook for November 7-11

11/4/2016

 

Fundamental picture for the British pound has improved during the past week. The UK High Court ruled that British parliament – not the government – has the power to trigger Article 50 – a process of exit from the European Union. The UK government is going to appeal the verdict and a final ruling from the Supreme Court will be released in December. All in all, the start of Brexit may be delayed past March 2017. If it’s the parliament that will be in charge of Brexit negotiations, then ‘softer' Brexit becomes more likely as a majority of the members of parliament have a pro-EU stance and voted for remain. For a time being this will provide support to the British pound.

 

Moreover, the Bank of England turned from dovish to the neutral stance. It increased 2017 forecasts for growth and inflation (2.7% CPI from 2.0% and 1.4% GDP from 0.8%). The BOE Governor Carney indicated that there were limits to his tolerance for inflation overshoot and that policy can respond to either direction. Carney also promised to stay in the Bank of England until 2019 improving the market’s sentiment about the sterling. The increase in pound provoked covering of short positions on sterling and allowed the currency to get higher.

 

GBP/USD managed to rise above 5-month downtrend at 1.2325. Support is at this level, at 1.2100 and 1.2000. Hillary Clinton’s victory in the US presidential election will make the currency head down. Resistance lies at 1.2500, 1.2640 and 1.2740. If Trump wins, the pair will test higher levels. The UK economic calendar is quite empty, except for the manufacturing production on Tuesday. 

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11192

[riki143]

EUR/USD: outlook for November 7-11

11/4/2016

 

EUR/USD gained in the past week and came to resistance 

 

at 1.1120 (August/September lows, 50-day MA).

 

The main bullish driver for the pair was the general 

 

weakness of the US dollar. Still, data from the euro 

 

area were mostly favorable. Manufacturing expanded in 

 

October at the fastest pace since early 2014, consumer 

 

prices rose at the fastest pace in more than 2 years, 

 

while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at the 

 

lowest level in more than 5 years. The European Central 

 

Bank (ECB) economic bulletin showed that the region’s 

 

economy should continue to expand, albeit at a moderate 

 

pace.

 

If Donald Trump wins the US election, the euro may 

 

shoot up to 1.1200 with the next target at 1.1365 

 

(August high). If Hillary Clinton wins, the US dollar 

 

will strengthen making the pair slide to 1.1000 and 

 

likely to 1.0940.   

 

Next week pay attention to German factory orders, euro 

 

zone’s Sentix investor confidence and retail sales on 

 

Monday. There will the Eurogroup meeting on Monday and 

 

ECOFIN meetings on Tuesday. The EU will release 

 

economic forecasts on Wednesday. French banks will be 

 

closed on Friday because of a holiday.

 

 

More:

 

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11193

[riki143]

AUD/USD: bears won't give up without battle

11/7/2016

 

On the AUD/USD daily chart, prices tested the neckline, but failed to move further towards the target 161.8% in the AB = CD pattern (0,7845). To regain momentum, bulls should attack the resistance at 0.7715. There is the upper boundary of the ascending triangle.

 

 

On the AUD/USD hourly chart, "bulls" should test the 88.6% level (0.7715) of XA wave to return quotes to the trading channel.

 

 

Recommendation: BUY 0,7715 SL 0,766 TP 0,7845. 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11194

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound is ready for correction

11/7/2016

 

On the GBP/USD daily chart, "bulls" managed to test the upper boundary of the 1,211-1,232 consolidation range. Quotes returned to the target 161.8% in the AB = CD pattern (1,248), but failed to consolidate above this level.Successful test of the resistance will cause quotes to rise towards 1,269 (127.2% in the AB = CD).

 

 

On the GBP/USD hourly chart, the expanding wedge reversal pattern has been formed. Rollback in the direction of 23.8% (1.2445), 38.2% (1.2375) and 50% (1,232) are typically used for opening long positions.If quotes return to 1.2185 (78.6%) the wedge pattern will transform into the continuation of the trend.

 

 

Recommendation: BUY 1,2443 SL 1,2388 TP 1,269 BUY 1,2375 SL 1,232 TP 1,26.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11195

[riki143]

Morning brief for November 7, 2016

11/7/2016

 

EUR/USD fell below the 1.1100 level. The FBI said on Sunday that criminal charges were withdrawn against Clinton, defusing tensions over the presidential race two days before the U.S. election. Later today there will be Eurogroup meetings. European finance ministers will meet to discuss business. In the euro-zone, Greece is still struggling with its indebtedness. The wider issue of Brexit is also on the table, with the High Court ruling in favor of Parliament which could halt the process. Watch German factory orders at 2:00 am (Metatrader time) to know how well the eurozone’s leading economy performs. 

 

 

USD/JPY was one of the major performers of the session, having jumped to 104.2 from 103.4.

 

 

GBP/USD dipped to around 1.24600 on the FBI announcement. Later today watch closely housing inflation data (Halifax HPI) which indicates the level of activity in the UK housing market. 

 

 

Aussie is trading sidelines along the 0.7670 level as there was no ground-shaking news from Australia. Keep an eye on the tentative Chinese trade balance which could influence Australian dollar as China is Australia’s largest trading partner. Kiwi edged down from 0.7345 to 0.7300 having touched 0.7360 mark. So, there were little changes for the session

 

Oil prices rose with traders citing buying after the week of precipitous downfalls on the disappointing fundamental news. Brent crude oil futures are trading at about $46.00 per barrel having recovered from Friday’s slump to $45.00. 

 

News flow halted after FBI dropped charges against Clinton.  We got some data releases from Australia and Japan, minutes of the Bank of Japan September meeting, but they look lusterless on the back of the upcoming US election

 

More:

[urlhttps://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11196]https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11196[/url]

[riki143]

EUR/USD: on the Clouds support

11/7/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 1.1050, 1.1030; resistance – 1.1090, 1.1140.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 1.1030; SL — 1.1010; TP1 — 1.1090; TP2 – 1.1140.

 

Reason: golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; bullish character of Ichimoku Cloud, Senkou Span B is falling down, but Senkou Span A is rising; the prices are in the correction; strong support of the Cloud.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11197

[riki143]

GBP/USD: returning to Senkou Span B

11/7/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 1.2400; resistance – 1.2490, 1.2520/40.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 1.2400; SL — 1.2380; TP1 — 1.2490; TP2 — 1.2540.

 

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; strong support of the Cloud and Kijun-sen.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11198