FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News

[riki143]

GBP/USD & UK Manufacturing PMI: More pressure for the Sterling?

9/1/2016

 

Today we expect a major macro data from the UK to be released at 08:30 GMT, where we'll know the Manufacturing PMI for August and analysts are expecting a slight improvement in the number from 48.2 to 49.0. There are still concerns across the board about the strength of British economy following the Brexit referendum. With that being said, there are doubts about if Q3 economic data from the UK will remain to show a solid pace.

 

Our technical view for GBP/USD at H4 chart is calling for a bearish triangle formation, as the Cable didn't manage to break the August 3rd highs and now it's facing a support at the 1.3066 level. With a lower than expected number, we should see a decline towards the next key support at the 1.2946 price zone, while a positive release from the UK Manufacturing PMI will make the pair crawl higher to test the 1.3261 level in a short-term basis.

 

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10284

[riki143]

EUR/USD: on the Clouds support

9/1/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 1.1130, 1.1100; resistance – 1.1260.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 1.1160; SL — 1.1140; TP1 — 1.1205; TP2 – 1.1260.

 

Reason: a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bullish Ichimoku Cloud; the support of Cloud.

 

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10285

[riki143]

AUD/USD: the Clouds airbag

9/1/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 0.7500; resistance – 0.7590, 0.7680.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 0.7550/60; SL — 0.7540; TP1 — 0.7620; TP2 — 0.7680.

 

Reason: a golden cross, but Kijun-sen is growing; a bullish Ichimoku Cloud.

 

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10286

[riki143]

USD/JPY: under pressure of 104.00

9/1/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 102.50, 101.20; resistance – 103.50, 103.70, 104.10.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 103.70; SL — 103.90; TP1 — 102.50; TP2 — 101.20.

 

Reason: a bullish Ichimoku Cloud and the golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the strong resistance near 103.70.

 

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10287https://new.fxbazoo.ka.com/analytics/10287[/url]

[riki143]

EUR/USD: Moving Averages waiting for bulls

9/1/2016

 

 

The price faced a support at 1.1113, so we’ve got a consolidation in progress. Also, there’s a “V-Bottom” pattern, so the market is likely going to move up towards the 89 Moving Average. Considering a “Triple Top” pattern, bears will probably try to test a support at 1.1113 once again.

 

 

We’ve got a local “Triple Bottom” on the one-hour chart, so there’s a bullish correction. Therefore, the pair is likely going to get a resistance between the 55 Moving Average and a level at 1.1192. If we see a pullback from this area, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.1122 – 1.1113.

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10288

[riki143]

Key option levels for Thursday, September 1st

9/1/2016

 

EUR/USD

 

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bearish Bearish

Changes in the open interest -?- (no data) -?- (no data)

Closest resistance levels 1.1191; 1.1223; 1.1248; 1.1280

Closest support levels 1.1149; 1.1118; 1.1093; 1.1062

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1149, with target points at 1.1118 and 1.1093

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1191 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.1223 and 1.1248

 

 

GBP/USD

 

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bearish Bearish

Changes in the open interest -?- (no data) -?- (no data)

Closest resistance levels 1.3163; 1.3198; 1.3223; 1.3253

Closest support levels 1.3104; 1.3077; 1.3057; 1.3032

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.3104, with target points at 1.3077 and 1.3057

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3163 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3198 and 1.3223

 

 

USD/JPY

 

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Neutral

Changes in the open interest -?- (no data) -?- (no data)

Closest resistance levels 103.50; 103.66; 104.01; 104.28

Closest support levels 102.93; 102.46; 102.13; 101.76

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Buy USD/JPY above 103.50, with the target points at 103.66 and 104.01

Alternative scenario Moving below 102.93 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 102.46 and  102.13

 

 

USD/CAD

 

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bearish Bullish

Changes in the open interest -?- (no data) -?- (no data)

Closest resistance levels 1.3125; 1.3148; 1.3175; 1.3221

Closest support levels 1.3082; 1.3055; 1.3014; 1.2957

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short USD/CAD below 1.3082, with target points at 1.3055 and 1.3014

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3125 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3148 and 1.3175

 EUR JPY GBP CAD

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10289

[riki143]

GBP/USD: local "Triple Bottom" led to bullish correction

9/1/2016

 

 

There’s a “Triple Bottom” pattern, which led to the current consolidation. So, the market is likely going to get a resistance at 1.3183 – 1.3209 in the short term. At the same time, bears will probably try to reach a support at 1.3092 – 1.3056 later on.

 

 

We’ve got a “Triple Bottom” on the one-hour chart as well. Therefore, bulls are likely going to test a resistance at 1.3183 – 1.3209 soon. However, if a pullback from this levels happens, there’ll be a chance to have a downward movement in the direction of a support at 1.3092 – 1.3069. 

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10290

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish extension going to move on

[/b]

9/1/2016

 

 

There’s a bearish impulse in wave (a), which is taking place on the four-hour chart. Previously, we’ve got two pullbacks from 6/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). So, bears are likely going to finish wave iii of (a) in the short term. If we see a pullback from 2/8 MM Level, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction.

 

 

The price has been falling down since a double zigzag in wave ii was ended. It’s likely that we’re going to see wave [5] of iii during the day. However, there’s a huge chance to have wave iv soon, so we should keep an eye on 3/8 MM Level as a target for this possible correction.

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10291

[riki143]

NZD/CHF broke resistance level 0.7150

9/1/2016

 

NZD/CHF broke resistance level 0.7150

Next buy target - 0.7220

NZD/CHF continues to rise – following the earlier breakout of the key resistance level 0.7150 (which stopped the previous sharp impulse wave (i) at the start of August, as can be seen from the daily NZD/CHF chart below). The breakout of the resistance level 0.7150 is likely to accelerate the active minor impulse wave 5 – which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the middle of January.

 

NZD/CHF is expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy target at the strong resistance level 0.7220 (which stopped the previous sharp minor impulse wave 3 in the middle of July).

 

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10303

[riki143]

GBP/CHF rising inside minor impulse wave 1

9/1/2016

 

GBP/CHF rising inside minor impulse wave 1

Next buy target - 1.3200

GBP/CHF continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave 1, which started earlier – when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the strong support level 1.2600 (which reversed the previous minor impulse wave 3, as can be seen from the daily GBP/CHF chart below) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.  The active impulse wave 1 belongs to the primary impulse wave ? from the middle of August.

 

GBP/CHF is expected to rise further inside the active impulse waves 1 and ? toward the next buy target at the pivotal resistance level 1.3200 (which stopped the previous minor correction 4 in July).

 

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10304

[riki143]

EUR/USD: consolidation between two "Harami"

9/1/2016

 

 

We’ve got an “Inverted Hammer” and an “Engulfing” at the local lows, but this patterns haven’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest “Window” once again. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’re a “Hammer” and a “Harami”, but again, this patterns are unconfirmed, so the price is likely going to reach the closest support level, which could bring any bullish pattern.

 

 

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’re an “Inverted Hammer” and a “Tweezers”, but their confirmation is a quite weak. So, the market is likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average during the day. If we see a pullback from this line, bears are likely going to deliver a new low shortly.

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10305

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls can push the market even higher[/]

9/1/2016

 

 

The market has been rising since Monday. Moreover, we’ve got a “Three Methods” pattern, which means bulls could push the market even higher towards the nearest “Window”. As we can see on the Daily chart, we haven’t got any reversal pattern so far, so the price is likely going to reach the closest “Window” soon.

 

 

There’s a strong support by the 21 Moving Average. Also, we’ve got a “Hammer” at the local low, which has been confirmed. Under this circumstances, the market is likely going to get a support on the 21 Moving Average once again. If we see a pullback from this line, there’ll be a chance to have a new high.

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10306

[riki143]

EUR/USD ahead August's US NFP data: Is the ground ready for a rate hike on September?

9/2/2016

 

A rate hike by the Fed is on the discussion's board nowadays and traders will be looking for hints at today's US NFP data, to be released at 12:30 GMT and analysts are expecting a decrease from 255,000 jobs to 180K. That number shouldn't help to provide a clear timing for the rate hike, but the fact of the matter is that it's highly possible to have one before the end of 2016. If numbers come above the expectations, then maybe a hike during Fed September's meeting can happen.

 

The technical view for EUR/USD at H4 chart is showing a rebound from the 200 SMA and we also have a bullish trend line in place, that is helping to give fresh bullish momentum to the pair. A strong resistance zone can be seen at the 1.1224 level, where a weaker-than-expected NFP number should produce a breakout higher in order to reach the 1.1350 handle. However, if we see positive data, then a breakout below the 1.1135 level should happen in order to test the 1.1050 zone.

 

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10307

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Triple Bottom" set up upward correction

9/2/2016

 

 

We’ve got a “Triple Bottom” pattern, which led to the current upward price movement. However, bulls faced a resistance on the Moving Averages, so we’ve got a local consolidation here. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.1176 – 1.1160 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this area, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.1232 – 1.1244.

 

 

As we can see on the one-hour chart, an achievement of the 89 Moving Average stopped the last bullish rally. So, the pair is likely going to get a support at 1.1176 – 1.1166 during the day. However, if a pullback from this levels happens, bulls will probably try to deliver a new high.

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10310

[riki143]

EUR/USD: euro decided on correction

9/2/2016

 

The bulls managed to make a counterattack. The signal was the recoil of the upper border of the downtrend channel and the following break of 1.116-1.1175 convergence area. If the bears fail to stop their adversaries at the current resistance (1.1206), rally to 1.125-1.1268 will likely continue.

 

 

On H1 EUR/USD finished forming widening wedge. Correction to 1.1206 (38.2% Fibo of waves 4-5), 1.1231 (50%) and 1.1256 (61.8%), as ususal is used for opening short positions. The pair's advance to 1.1293-1.1313 may lead to resumption of the uptrend.

 

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10308

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "V-Top" highlights possibility to have bearish correction

 

 

There’s a “Triple Bottom” pattern, which brought bulls into the market. Also, the last downtrend has been broken. Considering a local “V-Top” pattern, there’s an opportunity to have a decline towards the nearest support at 1.3247 – 1.3209. However, if a pullback from these levels be on the table, bulls will have a reason to catch a resistance at 1.3345 – 1.3370.

 

 

The price faced a resistance at 1.3302, so we’ve got a “V-Top” pattern here. It’s likely that the price is going to get a support at 1.3232 during the day. If bears be stopped by this support, then there’ll be a chance to have a new local high.

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10311

[riki143]

EUR/USD: the Bulls have reached the resistance

9/2/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 1.1170; resistance – 1.1205.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 1.1200; SL — 1.1220; TP1 — 1.1130; TP2 – 1.1090.

 

Reason: a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a strong resistance of the Cloud.

 

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10314

[riki143]

AUD/USD: correction may continue

9/2/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 0.7530; resistance – 0.7590, 0.7680.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 0.7590; SL — 0.7610; TP1 — 0.7530; TP2 — 0.7500.

 

Reason: a dead cross of Tenkan and Kijun; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud.

 

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10315

[riki143]

USD/JPY: the Dollar is still under pressure

9/2/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 102.50, 101.20; resistance – 103.70, 104.10.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 103.50; SL — 103.70; TP1 — 102.50; TP2 — 101.20.

 

Reason: a bullish Ichimoku Cloud and the golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the strong resistance near 104.00.

 

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10316

[riki143]

Key option levels for Friday, September 2nd

9/2/2016

 

GBP/USD

 

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 2 563 ? + 2 158 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.3296; 1.3322; 1.3342; 1.3367

Closest support levels 1.3260; 1.3242; 1.3207; 1.3182

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.3296, with target points at 1.3322 and 1.3342

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3260 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3242 and 1.3207

 

USD/JPY

 

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Neutral

Changes in the open interest + 1 426 ? + 1 703 ?

Closest resistance levels 103.63; 103.97; 104.24; 104.57

Closest support levels 102.89; 102.68; 102.42; 102.09

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Buy USD/JPY above 103.63, with the target points at 103.97 and 104.24

Alternative scenario Moving below 102.89 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 102.68 and  102.42

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10317

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave iv going to be continued

9/2/2016

 

 

Yesterday wave iv was started, so there’s an upward correction on the way. Nevertheless, if we see a pullback from 4/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200), bears are likely going to deliver wave v of (a). If so, we should keep an eye on 2/8 MM Level as a possible target for wave (a).

 

 

As we can see on the one-hour chart, bears couldn’t find a lodgement under 1/8 MM Level, which led to the current upward price movement. Therefore, wave iv is likely going to be continued during the day. The main target for this correction is 4/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for wave v of (a).

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10318

[riki143]

NZD/CAD approached pivotal resistance level 0.9550

9/2/2016

 

NZD/CAD approached pivotal resistance level 0.9550

Next buy target - 0.9650

NZD/CAD has been rising in the last few trading session inside the minor impulse wave (iii) – which belongs to the impulse wave 3 - which began recently – when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 0.9300 (previous buy target set for this currency pair), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse 1 from the middle of July.

 

NZD/CAD is currently trading close to the pivotal resistance level 0.9550 (which has been reversing the price from December). If the pair breaks above 0.9550 – the price can then rise to the next buy target 0.9650. Alternatively, the downward correction to 0.9400 is likely.

 

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10319

[riki143]

NZD/JPY rising inside minor correction 2

9/2/2016

 

NZD/JPY rising inside minor correction 2

Next buy target - 76.60

NZD/JPY continues to rise inside the ©-wave of the minor correction 2, which started earlier – when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the lower daily Bollinger Band and the powerful support level 72.00 (which also stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1 at the start of August (as can be seen from the daily NZD/JPY chart below).

 

NZD/JPY is expected to rise further in the active ©-wave toward the next buy target at the key resistance level 76.60 (which reversed the previous intermediate correction (2)). The resistance level 76.60 is also the forecast price calculated for the termination of the active minor correction 2.

 

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10320

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Shooting Star" led to bearish correction

9/2/2016

 

 

We’ve got a “Doji” and a “Tower” at the local high, but these patterns haven’t been confirmed yet. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest support line. If we have a pullback from this line, bulls will probably try to deliver a new high. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’re a “Hammer” and a “Harami”, which both have a confirmation. Therefore, the pair is likely going reach the closest resistance line.

 

 

There’s a support by the Moving Averages. Also, we’ve got a confirmed “Shooting Star”, so bears are likely going to test the nearest support line, which could reverse the price movement into an upward direction.

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10321

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls going to reach "Window"

9/2/2016

 

 

The last bearish “Engulfing” hasn’t been confirmed, so the price is still moving up. So, bulls are likely going to get a resistance on the nearest “Window”. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a “Shooting Star”, but it doesn’t have a confirmation. Therefore, if we see a pullback from the closest support line, there’ll be a chance to have a new high.

 

 

We’ve got a “Doji” on the 21 Moving Average, which has been confirmed, so the market is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average. If we have a pullback from this line, bulls will probably try to reach the upper “Window”.

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10322