riki143 Posted August 12, 2016 Posted August 12, 2016 AUD/USD: outlook for August 15-21 8/12/2016 AUD/USD made two attempts to take out resistance in the 0.7755 area, but sellers didn’t allow the bulls to overcome this obstacle. However, the trend remains bullish. Above 0.7765 the next resistance will be at 0.7840 (resistance line from 2013). Support is at 0.7600. Relatively higher yields make Australian dollar attractive for investors. As long as the market’s risk sentiment remains strong, it will be in demand. In addition, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Stevens didn’t hint on further interest rate cuts – another supporting factor for AUD. There’s however, one worrying spot: China’s imports fell 12.5% in US dollar terms in July. The nation’s industrial production and retail sales were also a bit weaker than expected. This creates a concerning background for Aussie, as China is Australia’s biggest trading partner. In Australia’s economic calendar pay attention to monetary policy meeting minutes on Tuesday and labor market figures on Thursday. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10052 Quote
riki143 Posted August 12, 2016 Posted August 12, 2016 US dollar: outlook for August 15-21 8/12/2016 Despite good nonfarm payrolls data, it wasn’t a week of strength for the US dollar: riskier currencies were more popular because of good risk sentiment. The greenback is supported by the fact that other major central banks are easing monetary policy, while the US Federal Reserve still claims that it may raise interest rates this year. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand followed the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England and cut the benchmark interest rate to the record low. However, data on Friday showed that American core retail sales contracted by 0.3% in July, while producer price fell by 0.4%. This was a serious disappointment for the market. Next week there will be more economic data from the US: building permits, consumer prices, housing starts and industrial production on Tuesday, FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index on Thursday. The minutes will be from July 27 meeting, when American central bank left interest rates unchanged and said risks to the US economy had declined. If the Fed officials try to persuade the market that September is a ‘live’ month when it may raise rates, the US dollar may strengthen a bit, though we don’t think that the market will put much faith into such statements. If the regulator sounds more cautious, the greenback will get under renewed bearish pressure. More sizeable hints on further US monetary policy are expected at the Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech in Jackson Hole on August 26. Until then traders are more likely to be bearish than bullish on the US currency. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10046 Quote
riki143 Posted August 15, 2016 Posted August 15, 2016 EUR/USD & NY Empire State Manufacturing Index: Not a major catalyst for today 8/15/2016 Today should be a very flat day in the markets, as in most of the European and South American countries will have holidays. That's why we're seeing a very light economic calendar, but on the American's side, we'll have the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index to be released at 12:30 GMT, where the markets are expecting an increase from 0.55 to 2.50. That should have the medium impact on US Dollar across the board. Our technical picture for EUR/USD at H4 chart is still pointing to the downside, as the resistance zone of 1.1225, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the Brexit's decline, remains very strong. That should give further hints of possible strengthening on the greenback, but the weakness is still alive. The nearest support zone is located at the 1.1073 level and it should be key during this week. In the bullish scenario, a breakout above the 1.1225 level will expose the pre-Brexit high to be tested on a mid-term basis. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10053]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10053 Quote
riki143 Posted August 15, 2016 Posted August 15, 2016 EUR/USD: ???? ?????????? ??????? 8/15/2016 On the daily chart EUR/USD bulls made another attempt to conquer diagonal resistance at the upper border of the trend channel. Once again it was a failure, although the persistance of the buers may eventually bring fruits. As a result, risks are that the rally will continue to 1.1259 and 1.1343. On H1 EUR/USD bears managed to repel an attack of their competitors. As a result, the pair formed resistance at 1.1209. The pair fell to 38.2% Fibo of the last descending wave. Here, as well as at 1.1134 (lower border of the uptrend chanbel + 50% level) the bulls are ready to seize the initiative. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10054 Quote
riki143 Posted August 15, 2016 Posted August 15, 2016 GBP/USD found convergence[/b} 8/15/2016 On the daily GBP/USD chart the bears reached targets they set before. The pair met important convergence area at 1.2888-1.2946, and won't be able to continue declining until it falls below this region. Recoil will increase risks of the pair's return to the lower border of the medium-term consolidation in the 1.3075-1.3494 zone. On H1 GBP/USD rwached 78.6% Gartley pattern target. Currently this level (1.2946) acts as resistance. Correction will increase probalility of selling from 1.3025, 1.3071 and higher. Successful test of support at 1.2888 will increase risks of continued decline to 1.2797 (224% target according to AB=CD). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10055 Quote
riki143 Posted August 15, 2016 Posted August 15, 2016 EUR/USD: "V-Top" stood in the way of buyers 8/15/2016 The pair has faced resistance on the main downward trend, so we’ve got a “V-Top” pattern, which led to the current decline. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a support at 1.1130 – 1.1120 in the short term. However, if a pullback from this area happens, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.1186 – 1.1222. There’s a “V-Top” pattern, which has stopped the last bullish rally. Also, we’ve got a support by the 34 Moving Average. So, it’s likely to see an upward movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.1186 – 1.1196 during the day. Nevertheless, bears are still in the game, so we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.1136 – 1.1130 as a possible intraday target. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10056 Quote
riki143 Posted August 15, 2016 Posted August 15, 2016 GBP/USD: Moving Average waiting for bulls 8/15/2016 We’ve got a “Thorn” pattern, so the price reached a support at 1.2877. Also, here’s a new local low. Under this circumstances, bears are likely going to move on towards a support at 1.2849 – 1.2795. If we see a pullback from these levels, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local upward correction. The price found a support at 1.2906, so we’ve got a consolidation in progress. In this case, it pair is likely going to achieve the 34 Moving Average in the short term. If this line acts as a resistance, bears will try to deliver a new low shortly. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10057 Quote
riki143 Posted August 15, 2016 Posted August 15, 2016 EUR/USD: "Triangle" going to move on 8/15/2016 There’s a possible “Triangle” in wave 4, which is taking place on the four-hour chart. It’s likely that wave [c] was ended last Friday, so it’s time for wave [d]. In this case, we should keep in mind 2/8 Murrey Math Level (P=250) as a target for wave [d] of 4. We’ve got a pullback from 7/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200), which was the final point for wave (?) of [c]. Also, there’s a downward impulse in wave (a). So, bears are likely going to deliver wave © of [d] in the short term. If we see a pullback from 4/8 MM Level, there’ll be a sign that wave [d] is over. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10058 Quote
riki143 Posted August 15, 2016 Posted August 15, 2016 Key option levels for Monday, August 15th 8/15/2016 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest - 271 015 ? - 374 592 ? Closest resistance levels 1.1189; 1.1213; 1.1229; 1.1248 Closest support levels 1.1142; 1.1126; 1.1105; 1.1079 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1142, with target points at 1.1126 and 1.1105 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1189 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.1213 and 1.1229 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 1 491 ? + 1 795 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3020; 1.3042; 1.3067; 1.3095 Closest support levels 1.2918; 1.2888; 1.2864/48; 1.2829 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Sell GBP/USD below 1.2918, with target points at 1.2888 and 1.2864 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3020 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3042 and 1.3067 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Neutral Changes in the open interest + 868 ? + 492 ? Closest resistance levels 101.81; 102.00; 102.20; 102.45 Closest support levels 100.93; 100.61; 100.43; 100.22 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 100.93, with target points at 100.61 and 100.43 Alternative scenario Moving above 101.81 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 102.00 and 102.20 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10059 Quote
riki143 Posted August 16, 2016 Posted August 16, 2016 GBP/USD ahead Tuesday's UK data: A decline towards post-Brexit low? 8/16/2016 Today in the United Kingdom we'll have a bunch of events' release that should help to add volatility during this week on GBP pairs. At 08:30 GMT, will be published the CPI, which is the consumer indicator inflation and that should see a change from 0.2% to -0.1% in the monthly basis reading. Also, PPI input is expected to post a decline during July's reading, with a 1.0% forecast from the 1.8%, and lastly, but not less: UK unemployment rate, that should see a slight increase from 4.9% to 5.0%, according to the market's consensus. Our technical picture for GBP/USD at H1 chart is calling for more declines, as the pair is currently trading inside a bearish channel below the 200 SMA. The nearest support is located at the 1.2850 level and we should consider it as the last hurdle before to reach the lowest level post-Brexit, around the 1.2795 price zone. That scenario should happen if UK data comes worst-than-expected. By another hand, a recovery should be limited to the 1.2950 level. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10072 Quote
riki143 Posted August 16, 2016 Posted August 16, 2016 USD/JPY: bears conquer new territory 8/16/2016 On the daily chart USD/JPY breached below the lower border of 100.83-102.69 consolidation range and the downtrend resumed. As its targets we can name 99.94 (88.6% Fibo of the last bullish wave), 98.96 (100%), 97.84 (113%) and 96.61 (127.2%). The former support at 100.83 acts as the main resistance. On H1 the bears keep the situation under control. The pair's moving towards the lower border of the uptrend channel. The main strategies are to sell on growth and on break of importent support levels. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10075 Quote
riki143 Posted August 16, 2016 Posted August 16, 2016 AUD/USD: Aussie is at the pause 8/16/2016 On the daily chart AUD/USD bears failed to keep the pair under resistance of 0.7688. The bulls are trying to return the initiative. If they succeed, the possibility of uptrend resumption will increase. On the othe rhand, decline of the pair below 0.763 will open the way down to 0.757. On H1 trend was followed by consolidation in the 0.7641-0.7723 area. Successful test of its lower border will allow the pair to make a corrective move towards 0.7590 and 0.7550. The break of resistance at 0.7723 will open the way to 0.775 and give hope to the bulls. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10076 Quote
riki143 Posted August 16, 2016 Posted August 16, 2016 GBP/USD: pound has renewed local minimums 8/16/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.2860; resistance – 1.2950. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.2950; SL — 1.2970; TP1 — 1.2860; TP2 — 1.2810. Reason: a bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; but there is a local oversold of market. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10077 Quote
riki143 Posted August 16, 2016 Posted August 16, 2016 AUD/USD: supported by the Cloud 8/16/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7680/90, 0.7630; resistance – 0.7730. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7700; SL — 0.7680; TP1 — 0.7760; TP2 — 0.7790. Reason: a dead cross but Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are horizontal and bullish Ichimoku Cloud. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10078 Quote
riki143 Posted August 16, 2016 Posted August 16, 2016 USD/JPY aims at July minimums 8/16/2016 Technical levels: support – 100.00; resistance – 100.60/80. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 100.60; SL — 100.80; TP1 — 100.00; TP2 — 99.00. Reason: a bearish Ichimoku Cloud; falling down Ichimoku lines; the market has exit from the oversold area. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10079 Quote
riki143 Posted August 16, 2016 Posted August 16, 2016 EUR/USD: bulls try to deliver a new local high 8/16/2016 There’s a correction, which is taking place on the four-hour chart. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a resistance at 1.1222 – 1.1235 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish movement towards a support at 1.1186 – 1.1164. We’ve got a “Flag” pattern, so bulls are likely going to move on. The nearest target is a resistance at 1.1222 – 1.1235. If buyers be stopped here, then bears will probably try to return into the market. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10080 Quote
riki143 Posted August 16, 2016 Posted August 16, 2016 GBP/USD: "V-Bottom" set up local correction 8/16/2016 We’ve got a new low here. Even though, bears are likely going to move on, so we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.2849 – 1.2795 as an intraday target. Only if a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be a chance to see a local upward correction. The price faced a support at 1.2877, so we’ve got a local consolidation. If we see a pullback from a resistance at 1.2933 – 1.2954, bears are likely going to deliver a new low. The next target is a support at 1.2849 – 1.2795. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10081 Quote
riki143 Posted August 16, 2016 Posted August 16, 2016 Key option levels for Tuesday, August 16 8/16/2016 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 42 973 ? + 107 736 ? Closest resistance levels 1.1225(38?); 1.1255; 1.1278; 1.1306 Closest support levels 1.1185; 1.1158/41; 1.1118; 1.1091 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.1225, with the target points at 1.1255 and 1.1278 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.1185 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.1158 and 1.1118 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 1 434 ? + 1 001 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2991; 1.3016; 1.3044; 1.3075 Closest support levels 1.2875; 1.2833; 1.2805; 1.2764(86?) Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Sell GBP/USD below 1.2875, with target points at 1.2833 and 1.2805 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2991 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3016 and 1.3044 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Neutral Changes in the open interest + 208 ? + 405 ? Closest resistance levels 101.76; 101.94; 102.15; 102.40 Closest support levels 100.02 (critical); 99.72 (critical); 99.39; 99.03 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 100.02, with target points at 99.72 and 99.39 Alternative scenario Moving above 101.76 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 101.94 and 102.15 USD/CAD More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10082 Quote
riki143 Posted August 16, 2016 Posted August 16, 2016 EUR/USD: wave going to be continued 8/16/2016 The last upward price movement has changed the main wave count. It’s likely that wave is going to be continued. As you can see on the daily chart, a “Double Three” is possibly taking place with a “Triangle” in wave (Y). The nearest target is 5/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200), which could be a departure point for wave D of (Y). The price has been rising since a zigzag in wave ( was ended. We’ve got a bullish impulse in wave (?) of [y] in progress, which inner wave's structure points to an opportunity to have more bullish pressure during the day. The main target for wave © is 6/8 Murrey Math Level (P=300). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10087 Quote
riki143 Posted August 16, 2016 Posted August 16, 2016 EUR/USD: bulls are free to move on 8/16/2016 The market has been rising since a pullback from the lower “Window” happened. The last candles are bullish and we haven’t got any reversal pattern so far, which makes possible to see an achievement of the upper “Window”. As we can see on the Daily chart, a “Harami” and a “Shooting Star” haven’t been confirmed yet, so bulls are on the way towards the nearest “Window”. There’s a strong support by the 13 Moving Average. Also, we’ve got a bearish “Harami”, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet. However, there’s a possibility to have a “Last Engulfing” pattern, but again, we have to wait until a confirmation arrives. So, if there isn’t any confirmation of these patterns, bulls will be free to reach the “Window’s” upper side. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10088 Quote
riki143 Posted August 16, 2016 Posted August 16, 2016 USD/JPY: bulls are up to deliver only small correction 8/16/2016 The price has been falling down since Monday. Also, we’ve got a “Three Methods” pattern, which increased bearish pressure. So, the market is likely going to decline until any bullish pattern arrives. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a lower “Window”, which could act as a support. We’ve got another “Three Methods” on the one-hour chart. However, the price achieved a resistance line, so there’s an opportunity to have some bullish patterns. If so, there’ll be a chance to see a local correction towards the 13 Moving Average, which is strong enough to help bears to move on. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10089 Quote
riki143 Posted August 17, 2016 Posted August 17, 2016 EUR/USD & FOMC Minutes: When will we see the greenback's bottom for mid-term? 8/17/2016 Today at 18:00 GMT will be released the FOMC minutes from July's meeting, where the interest rates were left unchanged. Those minutes should be acting as a catalyst for commodities and US dollar, as the last one has been showing weakness during last few days and that situation is helping to strengthen its major competitors (EUR, GBP, etc). There are no major expectations regarding the content of that meeting, but it can give us some hints of possible rate hikes for this year. The technical picture for EUR/USD at H4 chart is reaching overbought conditions, as the pair had been rallying and it's fully consolidated above the 200 SMA. Next technical level is located in the 1.1327 price zone, where is placed the 100% Fibonacci extension, but a key resistance is at the 1.1379 level. Hawkish minutes should provide bullish momentum to the greenback and EUR/USD may slump to test Tuesday's low (1.1168) at least, while a very dovish should help the EUR to extend its gains against the dollar towards the 1.1379 level. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10091 Quote
riki143 Posted August 17, 2016 Posted August 17, 2016 EUR/USD: bulls begin and win 8/17/2016 On the daily EUR/USD chart attack of the bulls, as expected, was a success. The buyers managed to break above the upper border of the meduim-term bearish channel and return to the lower border of the long-term bullish channel. The euro approached 161.8% target according to AB=CD. The nearest support is around 1.1269 (50% Fibo of the latest significant bearish wave). On H1 EUR/USD is trading within bullish channel. The previous resistance at 1.1209 is acting as support. The pair formed a "Spike and ledge" pattern. Break of resistance at 1.1289 will allow the bulls to continue moving up. Successful test of support at 1.1259 will allow the pair to move towards 1.1217, 1.1209 and 1.1184. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10092 Quote
riki143 Posted August 17, 2016 Posted August 17, 2016 USD/CAD: bears got scared 8/17/2016 On the daily USD/CAD chart bears managed to break below the lower border of the rising triangle. If they manage to hold ground, risks of decline to 1.274-1.276 ("Shark" pattern target + 61.8% Fibo of the last bullish wave) and 1.2624 (78.6%). The nearest serious resistance is in convergence area of 1.2956-1.2977. On H1 within a downtrend channel the pair formed 1-2-3. Break of resistance at 1.2893 (correction high + 23.6% Fibo of the last bearish wave) will acvtivate "Crab" pattern and strengthen risks of growth towards 1.295. On the other hand, successful test of support at 1.2839 will allow the seller to continue the downtrend. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10093 Quote
riki143 Posted August 17, 2016 Posted August 17, 2016 GBP/USD: under the Cloud 8/17/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.2970; resistance – 1.3060, 1.3090. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.3020; SL — 1.3040; TP1 — 1.2900; TP2 — 1.2860. Reason: a bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but there is a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; strong resistance of Senkou Span A. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10094 Quote
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