riki143 Posted July 8, 2016 Posted July 8, 2016 USD/JPY reversed from resistance zone 7/8/2016 USD/JPY reversed from resistance zone Next sell target - 100.00 USD/JPY recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 103.30 (former support level which stopped the previous intermediate impulse wave (1) in June, as can be seen below) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the earlier minor impulse wave 1 from the end of wave (2). The downward reversal form this resistance zone accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3), which belongs to the primary impulse wave ③ from May. USD/JPY is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the round support level 100.00 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 99.00 (low of the previous impulse wave 1). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9529 Quote
riki143 Posted July 8, 2016 Posted July 8, 2016 EUR/USD may withdraw from the short-flat 7/8/2016 Price briefly is in the hallway between the levels of 1/8 (1.1047) and 3/8 (1.1169). Consolidation below STH4 and the level of 2/8 (1.1108) can be regarded as a signal for the continuation of the bearish trend. The target is a key level 0/8 (1.0986). About such a scenario also indicates falling STH4, and a fall could happen from the current position. However, the breakdown STH4 can not be excluded, whereby the price will continue to move in the channel and reach the level of 3/8. Trade recommendation: Sell – 1.1075; sl – 1.1130; tp – 1.0980. More: Quote
riki143 Posted July 10, 2016 Posted July 10, 2016 AUD/USD: outlook for July 11-17 The past week wasn’t bright for Australia. The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash interest rate unchanged at 1.75%, but the market is seeing a 60% chance of a rate cut at the next meeting in August. The recent economic data from Australia were disappointing: building approvals, trade balance and retail sales came out worse than expected. In addition, the results of Australian parliamentary elections brought uncertainty, and S&P cut the nation’s sovereign outlook to negative from stable. Another negative factor for Australian dollar is that the overall market risk sentiment looks fragile. Traders still have serious concerns about the state of global economy. The market players will closely watch Chinese statistics next week: inflation figures will be released ahead of the trading week and followed by trade balance on Wednesday and GDP and industrial production on Friday. Reduction in China’s exports/import and economic growth will be painful for riskier assets like Aussie, while better data, on the contrary, will hold the bears. In Australia itself watch labor market figures on Thursday. Better-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls for June improved the market’s risk sentiment and allowed Australian dollar to gain versus the US currency. Note, however, that there’s resistance in the 0.7595/0.7600 area – this is the resistance line connecting April and June highs. Further resistance will be at 0.7700. Support is at 0.7440, 0.7385 and 0.7300. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9535 Quote
riki143 Posted July 10, 2016 Posted July 10, 2016 USD/JPY: outlook for July 11-17 USD/JPY weakened on the back of lower US yields and the fact that investors have pushed back their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate hike. The general downtrend is still in place, although the expectations of the Bank of Japan easing policy at the end of this month help the pair to get some support. The BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that the central bank will add more easing if needed to achieve its 2% inflation target. Data from Japan kept getting worse confirming the necessity of additional monetary stimulus: average cash earnings fell by 0.2% declining for the first time since June 2015, while strong yen made the nation’s current account surplus narrow. On Sunday there will be elections in the upper house of Japanese parliament. As long as the ruling coalition wins, Abenomics – the policy of stimulus named after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe – will continue. Abe’s win is the consensus forecast. Note, however, that the impact of the election will likely be limited. The market’s attention will be on Brexit, the outlook of US monetary policy and China's economic prospects. Whether Japanese yen will be used as a safe haven currency will largely depend on Chinese statistics due next week, mainly on Wednesday and Friday. Mixed, but still solid US Nonfarm Payrolls report adds support to the pair. The key support is at 100.00 ahead of 99.50 and 99.00 (post-Brexit minimum). Above resistance at 101.50 the pair could gain to 102.50 and even 103.50. Note, however, that the longer term bearish trend is still strong and below 99.00 USD/JPY won’t have much of support until 95.00. The question is whether Japanese monetary authorities will allow the pair to come this low. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9534 Quote
riki143 Posted July 10, 2016 Posted July 10, 2016 US dollar: outlook for July 11-17 US Nonfarm Payrolls added 287K in June, beating the forecasts of 175K increase. May growth, however, has revised to the downside, from 38K to 11K. This made 3-month average at 147K. The unemployment rate increased more than expected (from 4.7% to 4.9%), while the monthly growth of average hourly earnings – an important measure of inflation – missed the expectations slowing down from 0.2% to 0.1%. Still though annual wage growth is at its highest since the Great Recession. All in all, US data were mixed, but mostly positive. Before the release the futures market wasn’t pricing in a rate hike until February 2019. The Federal Reserve will likely remain on hold in the coming months because of external risks created by Brexit. Yet, as concerns about American labor market disappear, traders may start thinking that the Fed may raise rates a bit earlier than in 2019. This should help the US dollar against the major currencies, especially those of them, whose central banks may further ease monetary policy. At the beginning of the next week pay attention to the speeches of the Federal Reserve’s members George on Monday and Bullard on Tuesday – these will be the first comments of the US central bank after the fresh NFP figures. Also watch American producer prices on Thursday and consumer prices, retails sales and consumer sentiment on Friday. These figures will allow the market to update its view on the US economic outlook and the Fed’s interest rates. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9531 Quote
riki143 Posted July 10, 2016 Posted July 10, 2016 EUR/USD: outlook for July 11-17 EUR/USD spend the most part of the past week under pressure, though finding support as the European Central Bank still hasn’t sent a strong signal that it will further ease monetary policy. In the meantime, the news flow from the euro area is very concerning. After the Brexit vote Italian bank crisis became bigger: more capital went out of the sector, so that the lenders are now in desperate need of financial rescue. Italian bank stocks are down about 50% or more this year. Italy’s Prime Minister Matteo Renzi wants to help the national banks with a state bailout, but European Union authorities are against that as it contradicts the new rules of the EU. As a result, there’s a risk that the situation in Italy will trigger another euro area wide crisis. The European finance ministers will meet on Monday to decide whether to fine Spain and Portugal for missing the budget targets. Apart from this the euro area’s economic calendar looks very light with only industrial production on Wednesday and final inflation on Friday having some significance. In the past week EUR/USD was trading around 100-day MA in the 1.1100 area. Next week we expect the single currency to come under more pressure and slide towards 1.0920. Next support will be at 1.0815/00. Resistance is at 1.1200. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9532 Quote
riki143 Posted July 10, 2016 Posted July 10, 2016 GBP/USD: outlook for July 11-17 British pound remained affected by the consequences of the Brexit vote. During the past week 3 British commercial property funds suspended trading, because too many investors wanted to exit the funds – this is a clear sign that the market players are nervous. On Tuesday the Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney will testify on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliament's Treasury Committee. On Thursday there will be a meeting of British central bank and on Friday we’ll hear more comments from Carney. Earlier Carney said that British economy might need additional monetary stimulus this summer. The consensus forecast is that British central bank will leave monetary policy unchanged in July assessing situation for a potential move in August. The market’ however, has largely priced in rate cuts in both July and in August as well as potential resumption of quantitative easing. As a result, the Bank of England has to deliver much easing to send the pound lower. At the same time, taking into account the fact that GBP/USD collapsed below the Brexit vote lows and fell below the important 1.30, long positions remain too risky. One has to remember that Britain is going through unchartered waters, so pound may be technically drawn to 1.25. Resistance is at 1.3120, 1,3300 and 1.3500 in the short term with the key longer-term obstacle at 1.3850. Support is at 1.1790 ahead of 1.2665. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9533 Quote
riki143 Posted July 11, 2016 Posted July 11, 2016 EUR/GBP & Post-Brexit events: ¿Are the buyers losing momentum? 7/11/2016 The uncertainty around global markets remains alive after the “Brexit” referendum's outcome, especially around the Eurozone where the United Kingdom had decided to no continue with its membership. However, before that happens in “legal” terms, EUR and GBP pairs will be driven by the events that occur in the aftermath of that referendum. Last week there was a downgrade by agencies to the economic outlook for EU and UK, and also, recent political turmoil developments are still dominating the scenario. A technical overview for EURGBP in the weekly chart is still calling for more upsides, but that should be limited by the 0.8683 zone, where the sellers played an active role during first months of 2013 year. Regarding price action, the pair seems to be overbought and maybe, we can see a retracement towards the 0.8416 level in a first degree. If EURGBP decides to choose the bearish path, it can reach the 200 SMA. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9537 Quote
riki143 Posted July 11, 2016 Posted July 11, 2016 USD/CAD: loonie is weakening 7/11/2016 USD/CAD is consolidating on the daily chart. ADX has spent a long time below 25, MACD is showing mixed dynamics. The bulls started seizing the initiative (EMA9>EMA26, +DMI>-DMI). The best strategies for such sutuation are buying on breakthroughs or on corrections to the uptrend. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9538 Quote
riki143 Posted July 12, 2016 Posted July 12, 2016 USD/JPY after Abe's victory: Heading up to 105.00? 7/12/2016 Monday in Asia was very moved in terms of financial markets, as the current Japanese PM Shinzo Abe secured a majority in the upper house and that could strengthen the so-called “Abenomics”, adding more stimulus to the national economy. After the news, Nikkei index rose more than 4% approximately, helping to give fresh bearish momentum to the JPY currency against others and it contributes to the Nippon exporters. Nothing has been said about exact days for the new measures to be done, but Abe already ordered to its Financial minister to prepare them. The technical picture for USD/JPY at H1 chart is very bullish, as the pair did a consolidation above the 200-SMA and its looking to test the resistance level of 103.29, where a bearish trend line projected from May 31th highs could add pressure to the downside. If the USD/JPY achieves to break it, then we can expect a rally to the 104.00 psychological zone. [img}https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/9551/USDJPYH1(1).png[/img] More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9551 Quote
riki143 Posted July 12, 2016 Posted July 12, 2016 USD/CHF: bulls are taking the lead 7/12/2016 USD/CHF is consolidating on the daily chart: ADX<25, MACD is showing mixed dynamics. The bulls are in control: EMA9>EMA26, +DMA>-DMI. In such situation use breakthrough strategies. Focus on long positions. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9552 Quote
riki143 Posted July 12, 2016 Posted July 12, 2016 USD/JPY: correcting is losing momentum 7/12/2016 USD/JPY is correcting on the daily chart. This is confirmed by rising MACD, the intersection of EMA9 and EMA26, retracement of ADX. At the same time the bearish trend remains in place: ADX is far from its extreme values (above 56), -DMA>+DMI. The main recommendation is to sell on rallies. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9553 Quote
riki143 Posted July 12, 2016 Posted July 12, 2016 USD/JPY: meeting with the cloud 7/12/2016 The bullish sentiment prevailed yesterday on market of the currency pair USD/JPY. Correction caused by market’s oversold has continued deep into the Ichimoku cloud on the four-hour timeframe. And rising has continued to the 103-rd figure. There was a bulls meeting with resistance of the clouds top bounds. It makes sense to expect a downward rebounding and a continuation of trading inside a cloud. Technical levels: support – 101.70, 101.00; resistance – 103.10. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 103.00; SL — 103.20; TP1 — 102.00; TP2 — 101.70. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9556 Quote
riki143 Posted July 12, 2016 Posted July 12, 2016 GBP/USD: the Pound has corrected 7/12/2016 On yesterday’s session the Bears attempted the resumption of downtrend. The negative sentiment supported by a dead cross and a falling cloud. But the oversold market is not allowed for sellers to update the lows of a last week. A falling has stopped in the area of 1.2850 and the market has began correction in the direction of the clouds. At this morning we’re seeing testing the lower bounds of the Ichimoku cloud. We expect a downward rebounding from Senkou Span A. Technical levels: support – 1.2970; resistance – 1.3100. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.3100; SL — 1.3120; TP1 — 1.3000; TP2 — 1.2970. [img}https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/9555/02-gbpusdh4.png[/img] More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9555 Quote
riki143 Posted July 13, 2016 Posted July 13, 2016 USD/CAD ahead BoC Interest Rate Decision: Can we see a higher continuation? 7/13/2016 Today at 14:00 GMT will be the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision, where it's expected to left unchanged the current 0.5%, according to the analysts and some polls released by news agencies such as Reuters. Afterwards, a monetary policy report is expected to be released, which also should give some hints above future steps for Central Bank regarding inflation. As the Brexit's outcome is still moving the markets, Canadian economy could be affected by the uncertainty regarding the sit-and-wait stance from US Fed about raise rates. The technical picture for USD/CAD at H1 chart is calling for a bullish continuation, as the Loonie remains supported by a trend line and the 200 SMA. However, in case that the BoC gives us today hints of further easing, the pair may move into an enormous volatile wave, and it can break the resistance above the 1.3087, which also should open the doors to test the 1.3171 level. In the bearish scenario, a breakout below the 1.2978 level will expose the July 7th low at 1.2875. More: Quote
riki143 Posted July 13, 2016 Posted July 13, 2016 XAU/USD: gold needs some rest 7/13/2016 On the daily XAU/USD chart a number of indicators show that the uptrend has been broken. ADX lost momentum and started declining, MACD shows divergence with gold, EMA9 and EMA26 have crossed. In addition +DMI and –DMI have crossed. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9572 Quote
riki143 Posted July 13, 2016 Posted July 13, 2016 GBP/USD: sell at higher levels 7/13/2016 GBP/USD keeps correcting on the daily chart to the overall bearish trend. MACD is rising, ADX>25, -DMI>+DMI. The sellers failed to keep the pair below 161.8% Fibonacci of the last descending wave. Afther that the initiative returned to the buyers, which aimed to test resistance at 1.3487 (127.2%). The main recommendation is to the sell on the increase. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9573 Quote
riki143 Posted July 13, 2016 Posted July 13, 2016 EUR/USD: bulls can do more The price has been moving in a range of the current “Flat”, so we’ve got a pullback from the nearest support at 1.1057. Therefore, the market is likely going to rise towards the 89 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens afterwards, bears will probably try to reach the next support at 1.1057 – 1.1032. As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a flat between the 34 Moving Average and a support by the level at 1.1051. So, bulls are likely going to get a resistance at 1.1125 – 1.1145 in the short term. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this area, a downward movement becomes possible, so we should keep an eye on the local support at 1.1089 – 1.1074 as a possible bearish target. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9574 Quote
riki143 Posted July 13, 2016 Posted July 13, 2016 GBP/USD: "Double Bottom" set up bullish correctionA 7/13/2016 The price has been rising since a “Double Bottom” formed near the downtrend’s lower side. The 34 Moving Average acted as a resistance. Therefore, bulls are likely going to move on towards the next resistance at 1.3471 – 1.3614. If so, the last “Breakaway Gap” will be closed soon. However, if a pullback from this area happens later on, bears will probably try to achieve a support at 1.3226. Bulls faced a support at 1.3356, which led to the current local downward movement. However, the price is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.3495 – 1.3532. If a pullback from this area happens afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to see a decline towards a support at 1.3285 – 1.3226. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9575 Quote
riki143 Posted July 13, 2016 Posted July 13, 2016 EUR/USD: the Euro can’t decide the direction 7/13/2016 As we expected, yesterday Eurodollar has rebounded to the lower boundary of the four-hours Ichimoku cloud. Immediately has begun the new sales of the currency pair from 1.1100. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen formed a golden cross. It’s holding the further attacks of the bears in the area of 1.1060. A breaking of this support would mean a resumption of the downtrend. Technical levels: support - 1.1060; resistance – 1.1100. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.1050; SL — 1.1070; TP1 — 1.1000; TP2 — 1.0950. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9576 Quote
riki143 Posted July 13, 2016 Posted July 13, 2016 AUD/USD: the Aussie has updated the local maximums 7/13/2016 Yesterday the Aussie has grown significantly against the US dollar by setting a new high for the last two months - 0.7660. This growth has led the market to an overbought and forced the prices to correction to the Tenkan-sen (0.7590) on the four-hour timeframe. This support can be used by bulls to start a new purchases. But if the level does not support the market there is a possibility of a deeper correction in the Ichimoku clouds direction. Technical levels: support – 0.7590, 0.7560; resistance – 0.7620. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7560; SL — 0.7540; TP1 — 0.7660; TP2 — 0.7690. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9577 Quote
riki143 Posted July 13, 2016 Posted July 13, 2016 USD/JPY: change of trend 7/13/2016 A strong growth checked on the market USD/JPY during yesterday's session. The pair has risen more than two figures and setting up a new three-week maximums in the area of the 105th figure. In this case the bulls broke through the resistance of the Ichimoku cloud and went into the positive region. The Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-sen formed a golden cross and clouds character will be changed to positive. After a bit of consolidation at the current levels we expect the further growing of the pair. Technical levels: support – 103.90, 103.70; resistance – 105.00/20. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 103.90; SL — 103.70; TP1 — 104.80; TP2 — 105.20. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9578 Quote
riki143 Posted July 13, 2016 Posted July 13, 2016 EUR/USD: bears try to return 7/13/2016 Bears are still in the game, because the middle of the last huge black candle acted as a resistance again, so we’ve got a “Hanging Man” and a “Harami” here. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the lower “Window” in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a “High Wave” at the local low, but if the nearest resistance line brings any reversal pattern, bears are likely going to come back into the market. We’ve got an “Engulfing” inside the current “Window”, so we’re likely going to see an upward movement during the day. If any bearish pattern arrives afterwards, the pair will probably try to break the last low. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9583 Quote
riki143 Posted July 13, 2016 Posted July 13, 2016 USD/JPY: "Hammer" increasing bullish pressure 7/13/2016 There’s a “Harami” on the nearest “Window”. If this pattern confirms, bulls are likely going to move on. As we can see on the Daily chart, the price reached a “Window”, so the 21 Moving Average could bring any bearish pattern afterwards. If so, a downward correction becomes possible. We’ve got a “Harami” and a “Tower” on the nearest resistance. However, there’re a “Hammer” and an “Engulfing” on the 13 Moving Average, so buyers are likely going to deliver a new low very soon. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9584 Quote
riki143 Posted July 13, 2016 Posted July 13, 2016 AUD/CAD reached buy target 0.9950 7/13/2016 AUD/CAD reached buy target 0.9950 Next buy targets – 1.0000 and 1.0090 AUD/CAD continues to rise in line with our previous forecast for this currency pair. The price earlier broke the resistance trendline of the wide daily down channel from December - which strengthened the bullish pressure on this currency pair. The price earlier reached the resistance level 0.9950 (top of the earlier wave 2 and the first buy target set in our previous forecast for this currency pair). If the pair breaks above 0.9950 - AUD/CAD can then be expected to test the next major resistance at the parity – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward the next resistance level 1.0090 (top of wave 2 from Janauray). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9585 Quote
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