riki143 Posted May 5, 2016 Posted May 5, 2016 Forex Analytics A Strategy to Trade on Nonfarm Payrolls 5 May 2016 US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is an economic indicator released once a month, usually on the first Friday of the month. NFP shows the change in number of employed people in the United States during the previous month. The release usually causes strong movements in all currency pairs containing US dollar. Right ahead of the NFP the market usually either becomes flat or starts swinging in different directions. Ahead of the release set two pending orders in opposite directions (buy and sell). The orders should be set at least 20 pips away from the current price, so that you could avoid false market entry. If the price goes up and opens the buy order, you will be in long position. If the price goes down and opens sell order, you will be in short position. Set stop loss orders around the current price, that is at least 20 pips away from the entry points. Take profit orders should be 60 pips away from the entry points. In this case the risk/reward ratio will be 1:3. In the example below there are the following positions ahead of NFP: 1. BUY STOP 1.2625, Take Profit 1.2685, Stop Loss 1.2605 2. SELL STOP 1.2585, Take Profit 1.2525, Stop Loss 1.2605 If one order is activated, you should close another one. If the price is confidently moving in one of directions, you may move you stop loss order to breakeven. However, do this at least after 15 minutes from the release. Remember that the volatility of the currency pair depends on many factors and changes in time, so to choose the amount of pips to set your entry and exit orders correctly you should study the pair’s dynamics in the recent days and weeks. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8859 Quote
riki143 Posted May 5, 2016 Posted May 5, 2016 Forex Analytics EUR/USD: bears have broken the "Window" 5 May 2016 There's a downward correction in progress. Previously, a “Harami”, a “Three Black Crows” and a “Three Methods” were formed at the last top. So, the market is likely going to reach the nearest support line. As we can see on the Daily chart, a “Harami” and a “Shooting Star” have been confirmed. Therefore, today’s candle is probably going to be black. The price has broken the nearest “Window”. If the market finds a lodgement under it, there’ll be nothing to stop bears on the way towards the next support line, which can bring a reversal bullish pattern. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8860 Quote
riki143 Posted May 5, 2016 Posted May 5, 2016 Forex Analytics USD/JPY: flat between "Hammer" and "Harami" 5 May 2016 There're an “Engulfing” and a “Three White Soldiers” at the last low. We’ve got a “Three Methods”, which points to a possibility that the current rise can be continued. At the same time, there's a “Window”, which obviously can act as a resistance. So, it’s likely that the pair is going to form a local downward correction during the day. However, bulls will likely try to reach the next “Window” afterwards. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a “Hammer” and an “Inverted Hammer”, which both have been confirmed. So, today’s candle is likely going to be bullish. The last local downward correction was finally ended by the “Hammer” candle. So, the market is likely going to reach the 89 Moving Average. If bulls breaks this line, the next target will be on the nearest “Window". More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8861 Quote
riki143 Posted May 5, 2016 Posted May 5, 2016 Forex Analytics USD/CHF reversed from pivotal support level 0.9500 5 May 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -USD/CHF reversed from pivotal support level 0.9500 -Next buytarget - 0.9700 USD/CHF continues to rise – following the earlier upward reversal from the pivotal support level 0.9500 (which reversed the previous waves (iv) and 1, as can be seen from the daily USD/CHF chart below). The support zone near the support level 0.9500 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support level 0.9500 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer. With the clear bullish divergence visible on the daily RSI indicator - USD/CHF can be expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.9640, the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 0.9700. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8862 Quote
riki143 Posted May 5, 2016 Posted May 5, 2016 Forex Analytics EUR/USD reversed from strong resistance level 1.1600 5 May 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -EUR/USD reversed from strong resistance level 1.1600 -Next sell target - 1.1400 EUR/USD continues to fall – after the earlier sharp downward reversal from the strong resistance level 1.1600 (which also previously reversed the price sharply in last October, as can be seen below). The resistance zone near the resistance level 1.1600 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the upper resistance trendline of the daily up channel from December. The downward reversal from 1.1600 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Falling Star. Given the strength of the resistance level 1.1600 - EUR/USD is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 1.1400. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8863 Quote
riki143 Posted May 5, 2016 Posted May 5, 2016 Forex Analytics DAX falling inside intermediate impulse wave (3) 5 May 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -DAX falling inside intermediate impulse wave (3) -Next sell target - 9500.00 DAX continues to fall inside the 3rd intermediate impulse wave (3) – which started earlier – when the index reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 10400.00, upper daily Bollinger Band, 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave (1) from November and the upper resistance trendline of the daily up channel from February. The index is currently trading near the support trendline of the aforementioned up channel. If the price breaks this support trendline – DAX can then fall to the next sell target at the support level 9500.00 (low of the previous wave . More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8864 Quote
riki143 Posted May 6, 2016 Posted May 6, 2016 Forex Analytics EUR/USD: "Flag" as a sign to the coming new low 6 May 2016 Yesterday the price reached a support at 1.1398, which successfully stopped bears for a while. However, the market is likely going to get the 89 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, there'll be a chance to see a growth towards a resistance at 1.1453 – 1.1464. We've got a “Flag” on the one-hour chart, so the pair is likely going to achieve the next support near the up-trend’s line. If bears be stopped here, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.1437. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8873 Quote
riki143 Posted May 6, 2016 Posted May 6, 2016 Forex Analytics GBP/USD: forecast for May 9-15 6 May 2016 Kira Iukhtenko It has been another volatile week for the British pound. GBP/USD pushed to 1.4760 and retraced lower from this area. There is a strong resistance clustered at these levels: trend line, connecting the late-2015 peaks. Technically, we still see potential for a stronger move to 1.5000/5200 in the nearest future, so a break above 1.4760 would justify new short-term GBP longs. We stay medium-term bullish above 1.4400. This outlook will be negated in case if the cable slips below 1.4400. Remember that the forthcoming UK referendum (June 23) poses an imminent risk to the upbeat view on the sterling. The risk of Great Britain leaving the EU hasn’t been priced in yet. European politicians are now doing their best to calm the “leave” mood down, but market uncertainty is still expected to increase by the end of May. That’s why we find a break above 1.5200 very unlikely this year, so get ready to sell the pound on rallies to these levels – if the rallies happen. As for the economic calendar, watch the UK manufacturing production on Wednesday. On Thursday, don’t miss the Bank of England meeting and inflation report. The UK central bank is now consumed with preparing contingency plans for the potential Brexit, so the question of rate hike is off the table these days. Pay attention to the Marc Carney’s comments on the issue – he could point to high risks associated with the EU referendum. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8880 Quote
riki143 Posted May 6, 2016 Posted May 6, 2016 Forex Analytics EUR/USD: forecast for May 9-15 By Elizabeth Belugina During the past week EUR/USD rose to 9-month high at 1.1614 before correcting down. Strong euro is very unwelcome by the European Central Bank as it affects the region’s already low inflation and weak economic growth. Euro area’s flash GDP for Q1 is due next Friday. The European Commission cut its forecast for euro zone growth this year from 1.7% to 1.6%. Higher euro is bad for the European exports and stocks. So far, the latest increases in the ECB’s huge monetary stimulus didn’t drive the single currency down. However, there are no bullish drivers for the euro from the euro area, and the risk of more action from the ECB to weaken the currency should limit the euro’s advance. There’s also an opinion that investors from outside of Europe will sell their European assets, thus selling the euro. Note, however, that American data doesn’t give much reason for stronger US dollar. Labor market data weren’t very bright and the prospect of the Fed’s rate this summer is under big question. Technically, declining 100-week MA at 1.1637 is a strong obstacle for the euro bulls. Weekly close below 1.1460 will confirm the bearish candle with a long upper shadow signaling a temporary top. Yet, there are little reason to expect a big decline in EUR/USD. Bearish correction should find support at 1.1300/1.1250. The bulls need to return above 1.1500 to regain power. Other events in European economic calendar next week include German factory orders and the Eurogroup meetings on Monday and industrial production data on Tuesday and Wednesday. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8881 Quote
riki143 Posted May 7, 2016 Posted May 7, 2016 Forex Analytics USD/JPY: forecast for May 9-15 By Elizabeth Belugina USD/JPY hit 105.55, the lowest level since October 2014. Then US currency managed to get a bit higher thanks to brighter comments of the Federal Reserve’s members. US economic data were mixed: ISM manufacturing index disappointed, but services index exceeded expectations. American nonfarm payrolls also missed expectations. All in all, at this point strengthening in the greenback looks more like a correction or consolidation. The main reason behind the yen’s strength was the lack of monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan in April. Forex intervention to weaken yen are unlikely at this point with Japan hosting the next key G7 meeting on May 26-27, especially if further decline in USD/JPY is gradual. Another important factor for USD/JPY is the market’s risk sentiment, with which the pair is closely correlated. Japanese stocks are declining because of the weak corporate earnings, and this doesn’t make investors feel optimistic. Watch Chinese currency reserves and trade balance data this weekend as well as the nation’s inflation figures on Tuesday. Weaker Chinese PMIs already affected USD/JPY in the past days. Support is at 105.20 (October 2014 low, 100-week MA), 105.00 (psychological level) ahead of 103.70 (May 2013 high). Resistance is at 108.30, 110.00 and 111.00. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8882 Quote
riki143 Posted May 7, 2016 Posted May 7, 2016 Forex Analytics Gold: forecast for May 9-15 Kira Iukhtenko Gold price spent the week in a consolidative mode, forming a doji candle. Bullion failed to overcome the $1300 resistance for now (January 2015 highs), but we expect the bullish move to be extended after a short-term correction. The Friday’s US job report caused a volatility boost for the yellow metal: price gapped higher to $1280, but has quickly retraced gains. We believe the sluggish labor market lowers the chance for a hawkish Fed in June. This is negative for the greenback and positive for gold. Trade idea: BUY gold on a decisive close above $1300, TP1 at $1325 (next major resistance, 200-week MA), TP2 at $1345, STOP LOSS at $1280 More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8883 Quote
riki143 Posted May 7, 2016 Posted May 7, 2016 Forex Analytics US Dollar: forecast for May 9-15 Kira Iukhtenko US labor market data came out mixed on Friday. The economy added only 160K new jobs in April, while the March reading was revised down to 208K. At the same time, average hourly earnings growth accelerated to 0.3%. The US Dollar developed a bullish correction last week and extended the move on Friday, retracing from the 92 points low to almost 94 points. From the technical view, the US currency found support at the 2015 lows. However, the jobs report failed to shed the light on the Fed’s decision at the June meeting – there is still a lot of uncertainty. In our view, the economic data is not strong enough to justify a hawkish Fed in June, so the greenback still remains highly vulnerable for selling in the coming weeks. A double top with targets around 80 points could be formed in the coming months. Watch the US crude oil inventories figures on Wednesday. On Thursday pay attention to jobless claims data and import prices. FOMC members George and Rosengren will deliver their speeches as well. On Friday the market focus will turn to the producer price index and retail sales data. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8884 Quote
riki143 Posted May 7, 2016 Posted May 7, 2016 Forex Analytics AUD/USD: forecast for May 9-15 Elizabeth Belugina AUD/USD fell from the levels above 0.7700 below 0.7400. The Reserve bank of Australia cut benchmark interest rate from 2% to the record low of 1.75%. In addition, the RBA cut its inflation forecast for the end of this year from a range of 2-3% to just 1-2%. Inflation outlook for 2017 and 2018 was also revised to the downside. According to the central bank, economic prospects of China – one of Australia’s biggest trading partners – is a “key source of uncertainty.” In these circumstances, it looks like Aussie has room for further weakness. Below 0.7330/15 AUD/USD will be vulnerable for a decline to 0.7250 and 0.7215. On the upside the pair will meet resistance at 0.7400, 0.7450 and 0.7500. Watch the market’s risk sentiment and keep an eye on Chinese currency reserves and trade balance data this weekend as well as the nation’s inflation figures on Tuesday. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8886 Quote
riki143 Posted May 9, 2016 Posted May 9, 2016 Forex Analytics EUR/USD: "Thorn" helped bears to reach the low 9 May 2016 The price faced the 55 Moving Average, so we’ve got a local flat in progress. It’s likely that the market is going to reach a support at 1.1327 in the short term. If so, an upward correction becomes possible, so we should keep an eye on a resistance at 1.1398 – 1.1437 as a probable next bullish target. There’s a “V-Top”, which led to the current decline. The market is likely going to get a resistance at 1.1437 during the day. If we see a pullback from this line, bears will probably try to achieve a support at 1.1369 – 1.1339. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8888 Quote
riki143 Posted May 9, 2016 Posted May 9, 2016 Forex Analytics GBP/USD: one more "V-Top" 9 May 2016 The pair has been falling down since a “Wedge” was ended. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.4343 – 1.4305 in the short term. If bears be stopped here, there’ll be an opportunity to see the price on a resistance at 1.4473 – 1.4513. There’s a local flat in progress between a resistance at 1.4443 and a support at 1.4402. It’s likely that the pair is going to test a resistance at 1.4472 on Monday. Considering a possible pullback from this level, bears will probably try to deliver a new low very soon. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8889 Quote
riki143 Posted May 9, 2016 Posted May 9, 2016 Forex Analytics NZD/JPY reversed from major support level 73.20 9 May 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -NZD/JPY reversed from major support level 73.20 -Next buytarget - 74.60 NZD/JPY continues to rise after the earlier upward reversal from the major support level 73.20 (which has reversed the previous sharp impulse waves ①, (1) and 1, as can be seen from the daily NZD/JPY chart below). The support level 73.20 is the lower boundary of the powerful support zone which has been reversing the price from August of 2015. The support zone near the support level73.20 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band. Given the strength of the support level 73.20 and the oversold reading on the daily Stochastic indicator - NZD/JPY can be expected to correct up to the next resistance level 74.60 (top of the aforementioned price range). More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8890 Quote
riki143 Posted May 9, 2016 Posted May 9, 2016 Forex Analytics EUR/AUD reached buy target 1.5430 9 May 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -EUR/AUD reached buy target 1.5430 -Next buy target - 1.5690 EUR/AUD recently broke through the resistance level 1.5430, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this resistance level continues the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from April. The active impulse wave 3 started earlier - when the pair reversed up from the support zone surrounding the pivotal support level 1.5200 (former strong resistance level which stopped the previous B-wave). EUR/AUD is likely to rise further in the active impulse waves 3 and (3) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.5690. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8891 Quote
riki143 Posted May 9, 2016 Posted May 9, 2016 Forex Analytics EUR/USD: "Belt Hold" has stopped bears 9 May 2016 We’ve got a “Belt Hold” on the 55 Moving Average, so there's an opportunity to see the market rising in the short term. Also, there's a “Doji” on the Daily chart, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet. Anyway, today’s candle is likely going to be white. The price faced with a strong resistance by the last “Three Methods” pattern on the 21 Moving Average. At the same time, the market hasn't reached the nearest “Window”, so it could be achieved soon. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8892 Quote
riki143 Posted May 9, 2016 Posted May 9, 2016 Forex Analytics USD/JPY: "Hammer" scared all bears away 9 May 2016 The nearest “Window” has been broken, so the market is likely going to reach the next “Window” in the short term, because we don’t have any reversal patterns so far. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’re two “Hammers” at the last low. Under this circumstances, the pair is probably going to test the 13 Moving Average. The price has successfully formed a pullback from the nearest support line, which brought a “Harami” pattern on it. The last candles are bullish, so the market is likely going to taste the upper “Window” shortly. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8893 Quote
riki143 Posted May 10, 2016 Posted May 10, 2016 Forex Analytics EUR/USD: bears are preparing for a correction 10 May 2016 There's a “Thorn” pattern, which helped bears to move on. Currently, the price achieved the 55 Moving Average and the uptrend line. Considering previously formed bearish patterns, it's likely that the market is going to break these levels. If so, the main bearish target will be a support at 1.1327, which is strong enough to enter the pair into an upward correction phase. We've got a new low, but overall the pair is moving in a flat. So, the price is likely going to get a support somewhere on the nearest Moving Averages. If we see a pullback from these lines, there'll likely be even more bearish pressure on the market. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8900 Quote
riki143 Posted May 10, 2016 Posted May 10, 2016 Forex Analytics GBP/USD: "V-Bottom" has stopped the decline 10 May 2016 The price faced a support on the 89 Moving Average, which stopped bears. However, the current downtrend is likely going to move on, so we should keep an eye on the nearest support at 1.4343 – 1.4305. Therefore, a bullish correction becomes possible afterwards. There's a flat in progress under the Moving Averages. It's likely that the market is going to reach a resistance at 1.4406 during the day. At the same time, bears still have enough power to deliver a new low subsequently. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8901 Quote
riki143 Posted May 10, 2016 Posted May 10, 2016 Forex Analytics United Overseas Bank: targets for FX majors 10 May 2016 EUR/USD: Neutral: Downside has potential to extend lower to 1.1300 GBP/USD: Neutral: Daily fix below 1.4400 could lead to more declines to 1.4300 AUD/USD: Bearish: Expect slow move lower, below 0.7300 targets 0.7240 USD/JPY: Switch from neutral to bullish: Recovery to extend higher to 109.70 More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8902 Quote
riki143 Posted May 10, 2016 Posted May 10, 2016 Forex Analytics USD/JPY reached sell target 106.00 10 May 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -USD/JPY reached sell target 106.00 -Next buytarget - 110.00 USD/JPY continues to rise following the earlier upward reversal from the support level 106.00, which was set in our previous forecast as the sell target for this currency pair. The support zone near the support level 106.00 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the earlier minor impulse wave (iii) – which belongs to impulse wave 5 from the start of March. USD/JPY is likely to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 110.00 (intersecting with the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from the start of February). More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8904 Quote
riki143 Posted May 10, 2016 Posted May 10, 2016 Forex Analytics NZD/USD reached sell target 0.6850 10 May 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -NZD/USD reached sell target 0.6850 -Next sell target - 0.6650 NZD/USD has been falling in the last few trading sessions inside the minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave © from the middle of April. The price earlier broke through the support level 0.6850, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the support level 0.6850 coincided with the breakout of the support trendline of the daily up channel from January. NZD/USD is expected to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 0.6650 (target price calculated for the completion of the active minor impulse wave 3). Strong resistance now stands at 0.6850. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8905 Quote
riki143 Posted May 10, 2016 Posted May 10, 2016 Forex Analytics EUR/USD: "Engulfing" killed the bearish enthusiasm 10 May 2016 There's a strong support by the 55 Moving Average, but the last bearish “Hammer” and “Engulfing” haven’t been confirmed yet. So, there’s an open door for an achievement the 89 Moving Average in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there're an unconfirmed “Doji” and an “Inverted Hammer”, so the market is likely going to test the nearest support line. The strong support by the last “Window” has done a good job, so we’ve got a “Hammer” and an “Engulfing”, which both have been confirmed enough. Also, there’s a “High Wave” on the 21 Moving Average. Therefore, the price is likely going to reach the “Window” once again. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8906 Quote
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