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Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for October 12-18

 

By Elizaveta Belugina

 

USD/JPY has spent another week trading sideways. This time the range has narrowed to 120.60/119.60.

 

The pair lacks drivers to move out of the current corridor. The upside is limited as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) didn’t announce additional monetary stimulus at its October 7thmeeting, so yen didn’t weaken. Moreover, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting confirmed the central bank’s concerns about the global economic slowdown and the fact it is in no rush to raise interest rates. At the same time, the downside is also limited, because many investors still believe that the BOJ will ease policy further at its October 30th meeting. In addition, despite the weak September nonfarm payrolls (NFP), the expectations of the Fed rate hike this year are still alive.

 

These are the factors, which are keeping USD/JPY in range. A breakthrough will come only if dollar/yen closes above 121.50 or below 118.50. In our view, the possibility of a breakthrough next week isn’t very high. First of all, Japanese economic calendar looks rather empty. The most important event will be the release of the BOJ meeting minutes on Tuesday, but we don’t think that it will be a market mover. The US will publish several important pieces of data from Wednesday to Friday. These releases can push USD/JPY to the edges of the range, but unless we get some really big surprises they won’t change the market’s overall view on the Fed.

 

USDJPYDaily.png

 

Daily USD/JPY

 

One thing we should mention, however, that USD/JPY still correlates with the market’s risk sentiment. Risk sentiment will be affected by Chinese economic statistics – trade balance on Tuesday and inflation on Wednesday. As few expect robust figures from China, growth in USD/JPY will likely be limited ahead of these releases. Also note that both in the United States and in Japan there will be bank holidays on Monday, so USD/JPY can make volatile moves on relatively small events like the speeches of the FOMC officials.

 

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Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: forecast for October 12-18

 


 

UK currency jumped by almost 300 pips since early October. The major reason is the weakness of the US currency and technical conditions. The cable reached our target of 1.5330. However, bearish BOE comments on Thursday paused the rally.

 

Cable is trading in a medium-term bearish channel formed in June. Fix above 1.5330 will open the way to our next targets at 1.5500 and 1.5580. In the current volatile market conditions, our targets could be hit in the coming days. Break above 1.5500 will confirm the trend reversal.

 

On Tuesday, we’ll be watching the UK inflation figures. It is expected to stay around zero. On Wednesday, we’ll be watching the labor market figures. UK employment has been showing positive dynamics as of late.

 

GBPUSDDaily.png

Chart 1. GBP/USD Daily


GBPUSDH4.png

Chart 2. GBP/USD H4


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Posted
Forex Analytics

AUD/USD: weekly wave analysis

11 October 2015

 

Daily. In line with the forecast, the formation of the downward impulse wave A was completed. At the final part, we see the beginning of correction. 

 

audusd1.PNG

 

H4. As expected, we saw a powerful movement within the [c]. The pair will likely continue rising at the new week. We don’t recommend to go short for now as the pair may be going higher and higher. 

 

audusd2.PNG

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: weekly wave analysis

11 October 2015

 

Weekly. The market keeps forming the multiyear uptrend. The pair is currently forming corrective wave (IV), let us review its inner structure.

 

usdjpy1.PNG

 

H4. At the new week, we expect formation of the final part of the converging horizontal triangle [iv], after which we’ll see collapse of price or its slow decline. The approximate scheme of the upcoming move is shown on the chart.

 

usdjpy2.PNG

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: weekly wave analysis

11 October 2015

 

Daily. After finishing the bullish correction wave , which took form of a triple three, we saw the beginning of a new downtrend [C]. In the coming weeks the pair will likely decline.

 

gbpusd1.PNG

 

H4. The final part of the upside Zigzag 2 is ending. At the beginning of the week this wave will be over, and we will see a decline in the impulse wave 3. 

 

gbpusd2.PNG

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis

11 October 2015

 

Daily. The market keeps moving within the final part of a complicated corrective wave (4). The pair has to form the final part – коррекцию [Z] of y of (4).

eurusd1.PNG

 

H4. It seems that the wave [X] took form of the converging horizontal triangle. After this triangle was formed, the bulls have immediately started to push the prices up. The uptrend will likely continue at the new week. 

eurusd2.PNG

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for October 12

 

Open positions:*

 

EUR/USD: Hold LONG from 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.1561, STOP LOSS 1.1230

 

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 120.10, TAKE PROFIT 121.33, STOP LOSS 119.55

 

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG from 1.0910, TAKE PROFIT 1.1186, STOP LOSS 1.0865

 

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT from 1.4735, TAKE PROFIT 1.4387, STOP LOSS 1.4765 (revised)

 

EUR/GBP:Hold LONG from 0.7375, TAKE PROFIT 0.7501, STOP LOSS 0.7300

 

GBP/JPY:Hold LONG from 183.10, TAKE PROFIT 187.37, STOP LOSS 182.95

 

NZD/USD:Hold LONG from 0.6480, TAKE PROFIT 0.6815, STOP LOSS 0.6530

 

USD/CAD:Hold SHORTfrom 1.3030, TAKE PROFIT 1.2862, STOP LOSS 1.3081 (revised)

 

Trade ideas:

 

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5275, TAKE PROFIT 1.5449, STOP LOSS 1.5210

 

USD/CHF: SELL at 0.9660, TAKE PROFIT 0.9482, STOP LOSS 0.9741

 

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7218, TAKE PROFIT 0.7497, STOP LOSS 0.7140

 

EUR/JPY: BUY at 136.05, TAKE PROFIT 137.61, STOP LOSS 135.03

 

________________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for October 13

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 

On Monday there were some hawkish comments from the Fed’s member Lockhart, but with the US banks on holiday and the market being tired of guessing about the timing of the Fed’s rate hike the greenback didn’t react. On Tuesday there won’t be much of the news from America.  

 

The advance of EUR/USD has paused ahead of 1.1400. Germany will release economic sentiment figures at 09:00 GMT (negative forecast). Support is at 1.1350, 1.1318 and 1.1280. Further resistance us at 1.1460.

 

Pound is approaching resistance levels, but has some room for growth. GBP/USD has once again risen above the 200-day MA at 1.5320. As long as cable is above this point, it has a chance to rise to resistance is at 1.5380 ahead of 1.5435. The UK will release September inflation data at 08:30 GMT. Later in the day, there will be comments from the Bank of England’s officials. Support is at 1.5320 and then at 1.5278 and 1.5250.

 

USD/JPY was trading in the 120.15 area. In the absence of news from the United States and Japan the pair will be driven by the market’s risk sentiment. Lower than expected Chinese trade balance will bring it to 119.70 and probably to 119.25. Resistance is at 120.90/121.00.

 

AUD/USD rose to the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud and the 100-day MA in the 0.7370 area. The pair has almost reached 38.2% Fibo of the decline since May and is overbought. The publication of China’s trade balance data is a risk for a bullish Aussie. Support is at 0.7275 and 0.7200. Resistance is at 0.7385 and 0.7440.

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

Yen strengthening

13 October 2015

 

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

 

The USD/JPY currency pair ended up again next to the four-hour Ichimoku cloud during yesterday's trading session. The bears are increasing pressure and trying to break the cloud downwards, which is why, the Senkou Span A and B lines cannot reinforce its bullish character. More to that, the pair has gotten into the negative zone this morning, which could affect further trading since consolidation under the cloud may mean the end of the bulls' attempts to recover the market.

 

Technical levels: support – 119.60; resistance – 120.00.

 

Trade recommendations: off the market.

 

usdjpyh4-TN.png

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

Aussie at new heights

13 October 2015

 

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

 

The AUD/USD currency pair formed a new extremum for the past month yesterday. Due to quite agressive actions of the bulls the currency pair rate has soared under the 74th figure, breaking the last week's high of 0.7340. Bullish sentiment persists in the market, but this morning, we are witnessing the rate's decline into the Tenkan-Kijun channel. Obviously, the market needs a little rest to resume the uptrend. Testing of the Kijun-sen line levels is probable to be followed by the pair's new dash to the 0.7430/40 mark.

 

Technical levels: support – 0.7270; resistance – 0.7380, 0.7400.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 0.7280; SL — 0.7260; TP1 — 0.7400; TP2 — 0.7430.

 

AUDUSDH4-TN.png

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for October 13

 

Trade positions of Danske Bank: not so many changed from Monday. 

 

Open positions:*

 

EUR/USD: Hold LONG from 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.1561, STOP LOSS 1.1230

 

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 120.10, TAKE PROFIT 121.33, STOP LOSS 119.55

 

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG from 1.0910, TAKE PROFIT 1.1186, STOP LOSS 1.0865

 

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG from 0.7375, TAKE PROFIT 0.7501, STOP LOSS 0.7300

 

EUR/JPY:Hold LONG from 136.05, TAKE PROFIT 137.61, STOP LOSS 135.03

 

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG from 183.10, TAKE PROFIT 187.37, STOP LOSS 182.95

 

NZD/USD: Hold LONG from 0.6480, TAKE PROFIT 0.6815, STOP LOSS 0.6530

 

USD/CAD: Hold SHORTfrom 1.3030, TAKE PROFIT 1.2862, STOP LOSS 1.3081

 

Trade ideas:

 

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5275, TAKE PROFIT 1.5449, STOP LOSS 1.5210

 

USD/CHF: SELL at 0.9660, TAKE PROFIT 0.9482, STOP LOSS 0.9741

 

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7218, TAKE PROFIT 0.7497, STOP LOSS 0.7140

 

EUR/CAD: SHORT stopped, possibly sell

 

________________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for October 14

Kira Iukhtenko

 

[Video]
[/Video]

 

Weak China trade data lowered the risk appetite on Tuesday, putting the commodity currencies under pressure. On Wednesday, we will be watching China’s CPI and US retail sales and PPI. These events could deepen the slowdown on the financial markets.

 

AUD/USD is forming an engulfing candle on the daily chart. A daily close below 0.7270 will confirm the end of the early-October rally. We recommend selling the Australian dollar in this case.

 

EUR/USD remains sustainable despite the drop of risk appetite. We concede a spike towards the 1.1500 resistance in the coming sessions. After that, the pair could enter a consolidative phase.

 

GBP/USD was the main driver of the session, falling by more than 100 pips on weak UK CPI. Drop below 1.5330 was a bearish signal. We expect the pair to float to the 1.5160 support in the coming sessions. Recovery above 1.5330 is needed to negate the new bearish move. 

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for October 15

 

By Kira Iukhtenko

 

[Video]

[/Video]

 

US figures on Wednesday pulled the US Dollar down below the 94.50 support. Retail sales and PPI disappointed the markets and lowered expectations for a rate hike in 2015. On Thursday, we’ll watch the US CPI and the Philly Fed manufacturing index. US currency is expected to stay under pressure until the end of the week.

 

EUR/USD is testing new highs above the 1.1400 mark. As you may see from the H4 chart, trend resistance has been broken today. We still target the 1.1500 mark and expect the pullback from here. Pay attention to the 55-week SMA at 1.1440 – this is a strong resistance.

 

GBP/USD chart remains highly volatile. After a drop by 100 points on Tuesday, the pair gained almost 200 points on Wednesday. With the bulls now dominating the market, we now see space for growth to 1.5500. Support is seen at 1.5380 and 1.5330.

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for October 15

 

Open positions:*

 

EUR/USD: Hold LONG from 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.1561, STOP LOSS 1.1263 (revised)

 

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 119.46, TAKE PROFIT 120.57, STOP LOSS 118.59

 

USD/CHF: Hold SHORT at 0.9540, TAKE PROFIT 0.9301 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.9601

 

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7218, TAKE PROFIT 0.7497, STOP LOSS 0 .7140

 

USD/CAD: Hold SHORTfrom 1.3030, TAKE PROFIT 1.2862, STOP LOSS 1.3081

 

NZD/USD: Hold LONG from 0.6480, TAKE PROFIT 0.6882 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.6610 (revised)

 

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG from 1.0910, TAKE PROFIT 1.1186, STOP LOSS 1.0865

 

EUR/GBP:Hold LONG from 0.7375, TAKE PROFIT 0.7525 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.7380 (revised)

 

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG from 136.05, TAKE PROFIT 137.61, STOP LOSS 135.39 (revised)

 

Trade ideas:

 

GBP/USD: Possibly BUY

 

GBP/JPY: BUY at 183.20, TAKE PROFIT 185.93, STOP LOSS 182.29

 

EUR/CAD: BUY at 1.4795, TAKE PROFIT 1.5158, STOP LOSS 1.4675

 

________________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for October 16

 

[Video]
[/Video]

 

The market’s sentiment is very changeable as it swings by the influence of data releases. US inflation data for September came in line with expectations with the core figures slightly exceeding forecast. All in all, traders were preparing for worse, so US dollar performed better after the figures came out. American unemployment claims turned out to be better than expected, though Empire State manufacturing index disappointed. On Friday, the United States will release industrial production and consumer sentiment data.

 

EUR/USD has almost reached 1.1500, but then was aggressively sold off. The euro was hit by comments of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny that the ECB is missing its inflation target and additional instruments are needed. Such talk increased the speculation of additional easing from the central bank. A close below 1.1400 will open the way for further declines. Support is at 1.1350 and 1.1315/00. Resistance is at 1.1460, 1.1500 and 1.1540.  

 

GBP/USD was correcting after big gains on Wednesday and as it reached resistance in the 1.5500 zone (100-day MA). Support is at 1.5380 and 1.5320 (200-day MA). Above this point the pound retains potential for more upside. Resistance is at 1.5540 and 1.5600. MPC member Forbes will speak at 10:30 GMT.

 

USD/JPY fell to the 118.05 area. A close above 118.50 will allow the pair to recover to 119.50/70. Further resistance is at 120.35/50. On the downside, support is at 117.00. The Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda will speak at 06:35 GMT.

 

AUD/USD made another test of the 100-day MA at 0.7360. Australian dollar was supported by the better risk sentiment on the expectations that the US Fed won’t raise rates this year. However, Australian employment declined in September. Resistance of the 2014-2015 trend in the 0.7400 area will be hard for the bulls to break. The pair may retest strong support in the 0.7200/7180 zone which guards the way to 0.7100. The Reserve Bank of Australian will release Financial Stability Review early on Friday.

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

US Dollar: forecast for October 19-25

 


 

[Video]
[/Video]

 

New week on the financial markets started with a bunch of Chinese releases. China’s economy rose more than expected in Q3, lowering uncertainty and leaving space for a Fed’s rate hike in 2015.

 

In our view view, the US dollar has room for recovery on the new week. Unexpectedly strong CPI released last week, upbeat quarterly corporate reports, improvement of the global sentiment – all that supports the ide of a rate hike in December. For now, the chance for that is around 30%. You should also note that the net USD longs decline to a 15-months low. The correction was deep enough no mitigate the oversold conditions for the greenback.

 

US economic calendar on the new week is rather light. The only events to watch are the housing market news on Tuesday. The Fed’s officials will deliver their last speeches before the October 28th meeting during the week. Yanet Yellen is scheduled to speak on Tuesday. 

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for October 19-25

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 

In line with our expectations, the euro continued going up after it had broken above August-September resistance line. The European currency was supported by the market’s negative risk sentiment and weaker-than-expected US economic data. However, EUR/USD failed to overcome resistance in the 1.1500 area and went abruptly down on the dovish comments of the ECB Governing Council member Nowotny. 

 

The first half of the next week will be relatively light on economic data from both Europe and the United States. All in all, the focus will be on the euro area. One has to pay great attention to the European Central Bank’s meeting and press conference on Thursday. Ahead of the meeting, the euro will clearly remain under pressure, as there is a chance that the regulator will make announcements about the monetary easing. Trading after the meeting will naturally depend on what the ECB president Mario Draghi says. The risks for the euro area bearish. Note that the euro area will also release flash manufacturing and services PMIs on Friday. If the ECB’s position doesn’t become clearer, the market will make its judgment on the basis of these data. The figures are unlikely to be very bright. The speculators’ short positions on euro have contracted, and now the single currency will be more vulnerable to the negative data.

 

China’s weak GDP and industrial production data released on Monday did not provide a push higher for the euro: negative sentiment is smoothed out by the expectations of additional monetary easing from the People’s Bank of China. Support is at 1.1260, 1.1215 and 1.1170. Resistance is at 1.1400, 1.1460 and 1.1500.

EURUSD.png

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for October 19-25

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 

During the past week USD/JPY tested lower levels in the 118.05 area. It happened as traders pulled the expectations of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike further into future. Thus, the greenback lost its main bullish driver. Moreover, demand for the Japanese yen as a safe haven was rather strong. By the end of the week, however, risk sentiment has somewhat improved, and a bullish ‘hammer’ candle was formed on the pair’s daily chart.

 

The US dollar is still supported by the monetary policy divergence between the US and Japan: American economic data became better, and even with the Fed’s rate hike expectations diminished it’s clear that the Unites States will be the first to tighten policy. In addition, Japan lowered its assessment of the economy and industrial production last week. Still, the Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda once again sounded optimistic about Japanese economy and inflation on Friday. Japan’s unwillingness to add monetary stimulus is limiting USD/JPY on the upside. As a result, the pair is doomed to continue its sideways movement.  

 

Next week Japanese economic calendar is almost empty: it will be the calm before the storm of the Bank of Japan’s meeting on October 30. There will not be many data from the US either. As a result, risk sentiment will be the main market mover. China released weak GDP and industrial production data released on Monday, but negative sentiment was smoothed out by the expectations of additional monetary easing from the People’s Bank of China.

 

The bears failed to make USD/JPY fix below 118.50. It emphasizes the fact that there is demand for the American currency in this area. Further support is at 117.00 (support line since 2012). Resistance is at 120.00, 120.35 and 120.90.

 

USDJPY.png

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for October 20

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 

[Video]
[/Video]

 

The market’s risk sentiment was influenced by China. The nation’s Q3 GDP growth slowed down from 7% to 6.9%, the lowest reading since 2009, though slightly above expectations of 6.8%. China’s industrial production growth pace decline from 6.1% to 5.7% (forecast: 6.0%). Fixed asset investment also disappointed. Still, there was no rush in safe havens as the market expects the People’s Bank of China to step in with additional monetary stimulus.  

 

On Tuesday pay attention to the US housing data at 12:30 GMT (USD will benefit from a good reading) and the speeches of the FOMC members at 13:00-13:15 GMT and Janet Yellen (15:00 GMT).

 

EUR/USD slid towards 1.1300. The upcoming meeting of the European Central Bank on Thursday creates negative pressure on the euro. We prefer short positions on the euro. Support is at 1.1300, 1.1260 and 1.1215.  

 

GBP/USD is once again testing resistance in the 1.5490 area (100-day MA). Support is at 1.5415/00 and as long as it holds we can’t rule out a thrust up to further resistance is at 1.5545 and 1.5600. Below 1.5400 support will be at 1.5380 and 1.5235. The Bank of England’s MPC member McCafferty will speak at 09:45 GMT and Governor Carney will take the stage at 10:00 GMT. Expect more volatility to come. UK labor market data last week were not very bad, so it’s interesting how Carney will comment on that. On Friday MPC member Forbes claimed that a rate hike in Britain would come sooner rather than later.

 

USD/JPY is little changed in the 119.30 area. The expectations of an increase in the Bank of Japan’s monetary stimulus this month have declined and the pair’s recovery will likely be limited. Support is at 119.00, 118.70 and 118.05. Resistance is at 119.65, 120.00 and 120.90.

 

AUD/USD tested 0.7300, but failed to break higher and will likely retreat to lower levels. Negative Chinese data finally sank in. Support is at 0.7235, 0.7200 (strong level) and 0.7160. The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting will be released early on Tuesday. Resistance is at 0.7350, 0.7380 and 0.7440.

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

EUR/JPY: weekly wave analysis

20 October 2015

 

Roman Petuchov

 

Weekly. Beginning part of the new bullish impulse [3] is now being formed. Let's see the markup on the H4 chart.

eurjpy1.PNG

 

H4. After the end of the bullish impulse , we've seen a decline in a new corrective wave [ii]. It will be over this week. Afterwards we'll see a bullish move.

eurjpy2.PNG

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

GOLD: weekly wave analysis

20 October 2015

 

Daily. The pair keeps forming the final part of the long sloping triangle. We see the development of the bullish zigzag [E]. The pair is currently forming the end of this wave.

xauusd1.PNG

 

H4. The market is forming the final upwards impulse ©. It seems that in the previous days the pair has formed the wave 4, which looks complete. As a result, in the near term we expect the pair to go up in the wave 5.

xauusd2.PNG

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Oct 20

 

Open positions:*

 

USD/CHF: Hold SHORT at 0.9540, TAKE PROFIT 0.9302, STOP LOSS 0.9601

 

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 135.60, TAKE PROFIT 133.44, STOP LOSS 136.10

 

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4715, TAKE PROFIT 1.4387, STOP LOSS 1.4855

 

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 183.20, TAKE PROFIT 187.37, STOP LOSS 182.75

 

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7218, TAKE PROFIT 0.7497, STOP LOSS 0.7195

 

Trade ideas:

 

EUR/USD: Possibly SELL

 

USD/JPY: BUY at 118.95, TAKE PROFIT 120.57, STOP LOSS 118.02

 

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5405, TAKE PROFIT 1.5659, STOP LOSS 1.5315

 

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7335, TAKE PROFIT 0.7197, STOP LOSS 0.7400 (revised)

 

EUR/CHF: SELL at 1.0865, TAKE PROFIT 1.0713, STOP LOSS 1.0925

 

NZD/USD: BUY at 0.6745, TAKE PROFIT 0.6937, STOP LOSS 0.6680

 

____________________________________________________________

 

*Danske bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

Trading plan for October 21

 

By Kira Iukhtenko

[Video]
[/Video]

 

Forex economic calendar on Wednesday, October 21, is rather light. Pay special attention to the Bank of Canada meeting. Interest rate is expected to be left at 0.5%. However, the press-conference could bring a bunch of negative surprises for the Canadian economy. USD/CAD traded under pressure on Tuesday, but we are ready to go LONG on a fix above 1.3000 and with an initial target at 1.3060. Break higher will confirm an inverse “head-and-shoulders” formation and will be a broader bullish sign. Support lies at 1.2900.

 

Another attractive pair to trade in the coming sessions is GBP/USD. We advise going LONG on a fix above 1.5500 targeting 1.5580 (38.2% Fibonacci). Key support lies at 1.5410/00. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech on Wednesday, while on Thursday the market will focus on the UK retail sales. Upbeat forecast could become a growth driver for the cable.

 

The major event of the week is the European Central bank meeting on Thursday. Rates are expected to stay on hold at 0.05%,  while the Mario Draghi could deliver a cart of dovish comments later in the day or even announce an additional QE. EUR/USD break below the trend line at 1.1330 is a good moment to go SHORT. Major support is now seen at 1.1250 – break below will confirm the end of the mid-term bullish phase. Resistance – 55-week MA at 1.1450.

 

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Forex Analytics

AUD/NZD: buy target - 1.0850

21 October 2015

 

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov


AUD/NZD reached sell target 1.0700

Next buy target - 1.0850


AUD/NZD recently reversed up sharply from the support zone (which also previously reversed the second intermediate wave (2) in May) lying between the support levels 1.0700 (sell target set in our previous forecast for this currency pair) and 1.0600. This support zone was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the active minor impulse wave 3 (which belongs to the intermediate ©-wave from the middle of September).

 

AUD/NZD is likely to correct up further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0850. Strong support zone remains between price levels 1.0700 and 1.0600.

AUDNZD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Oc

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: buy target - 121.00

21 October 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov


USD/JPY reversed from pivotal support level 118.60

Next buy target - 121.00


USD/JPY continues to rise inside the 3rd minor impulse wave – which started previously – when the pair reversed up sharply from the pivotal support level 118.60 (which has been reversing the price from the start of September). The last three upward reversals from this support level created the following Japanese candlestick reversal patterns (highlighted below) – Morning Star, Long-legged Doji and most recently – it created the daily Hammer.

 

USD/JPY is expected to rise further inside the active minor impulse wave 3 (which is a part of the intermediate impulse wave (5) from the end of August) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 121.00.

 

USDJPY%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Oc

 

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