internationallove Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. GBP/USD consolidates around $1.6000 GBP/USD consolidates above the $1.6000 and the last Fibonacci fan line. On Monday the pair tried to strengthen above $1.6050 on the optimism, created by the Spanish regional elections, but quickly slid back. Apart from $1.6000, key support for the cable is seen at $1.5980 (October lows, 50-day MA). A break lower would be a bearish sign and open the way for a further decline to $1.5900 and $1.5820/05 (200- and 100-day MAs) and to $1.5750 (August 28 low). From a long-term view the pair may slide towards $1.5234 (lower boundary of a sideways channel, existing since 2010). Resistance lies at $1.6080, $1.6120, $1.6178 (October 17 high), $1.6216 (October 5 high), $1.6271 (September 28 high) and $1.6300 (2012 maximum). Today traders will be watching a speech the BoE Governor Mervin King for any hints on further policy easing in November (19:00 GMT). The UK economy remains weak, while the inflation is low, so the regulator has enough reasons to extend the asset purchasing program. This week the cable is not expected to move much ahead of the Friday’s Q3 GDP release. Figures are expected to show the economy grew by 0.6% after three straight quarters of contraction. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-10-23/19692-gbpusd-technical-fundamental Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2915, $1.3000, $1.3100; GBP/USD: $1.6000; USD/JPY: 79.00, 79.65, 80.00; USD/CHF: 0.9350; AUD/USD: $1.0215, $1.0235, $1.0250, $1.0285, $1.0300, $1.0350; AUD/NZD: 1.2600; USD/CAD: 1.0000; EUR/GBP: 0.8155, 0.8160. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-10-24/19703-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. AUD/USD: daily analysis AUD/USD rose to the 100-day MA around $1.0310. The fundamental factors which caused the increase include encouraging data from China (higher HSBC flash manufacturing PMI) and stronger Australian CPI. The odds that the RBA will cut rates in November declined. Standard Chartered: “The inflation data may have reduced the risk for rate cuts in the immediate term. In the short term, we may see the Aussie run back up to $1.04.” Note, though, that the pair has reached an area where might be a lot of sell orders set in place. Buying interest is seen in the $1.0280/00 zone. Resistance: $1.0310 (100-day MA), $1.0330/55 (38.2% retracement of the decline from September maximum to October minimum; 200-day MA; 50-day MA), $1.0410 (October maximum), $1.0440 (61.8% retracement), $1.0625 (7-month high). Support: $1.0260 (23.6% retracement), $1.0235 (yesterday’s minimum) – 2 key levels of short-term support, $1.0200 (October 15 minimum), $1.0150 (3-month minimum), $1.0000, $0.9560 (2012 minimum). JP Morgan’s medium-term model for AUD/USD, which is based on a 10-year spread, Chinese manufacturing PMI, global manufacturing PMI, and the RBA commodity index, estimates AUD/USD at $0.9000, about 13% below today’s level. Chart. H4 AUD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-10-24/19706-audusd-daily-analysis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. USD/JPY: yen’s selling is slowing down USD/JPY is consolidating after its impressive advance to 80 yen, the key resistance level: today it has slid to the levels around 79.80. Investors are now wondering if USD/JPY is able to sustain bullish momentum. Analysts at Bank of New York Mellon warn of “a sharp deceleration in the ongoing net selling of the Japanese yen.” In their view, this may be explained by discouraging earnings reports coming out of the United States. The bank says that yen may begin to garner some support despite a weak domestic economy as global risk appetite declines. Support for the pair lies at 79.65 (September high), 79.45 (200-day MA), 79.22 (September 19 maximum). Chart. H4 USD/JPY Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-10-24/19712-usdjpy-yens-selling-slowing-down Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. USD/CHF: technical picture USD/CHF is rising for the second day in a row. Today the pair rose to the maximal level in more than a week at 0.9350 and took out resistance at 0.9330 (61.8% retracement of the advance from February minimum to July maximum) and MAs at H4. There’s a bearish conversion on the daily MACD. However, we still think that bulls don’t have enough room to keep pushing the prices up for long. The important resistance represented by the 200-day MA (0.9387), October maximums (0.9438) and the daily Ichimoku Cloud gets closer and closer. As a result, it seems reasonable to try selling USD/CHF on the rallies. Look at the pullbacks from 200-day MA for the entry or even the lower levels. The pair may slide to the recent minimums (0.9215) and then to the upper border of the weekly Cloud and the 100-week MA (0.9105), which, in their turn, should provide good support. Yet, once below there, the greenback’s decline may accelerate. Watch out for American new home sales and the Fed’s statement later today. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-10-24/19718-usdchf-technical-picture Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. EUR/GBP: technical picture EUR/GBP slipped below 0.8100 and came back below the 200-day MA. A close below these levels would signal a return into the downward trend formed in 2011. However, a failure to resume the downward movement may confirm the inverse “head-and-shoulders” pattern (head at 0.7755). In this case we would expect EUR/GBP to reach 0.8400. One may see that the pair remains far above the daily Ichimoku Cloud. As can be seen from the weekly chart, EUR/GBP bounced back from the 50-week MA. Here the bears prevail: we see a thick descending Cloud. Support: 0.8021 (October 10 minimum), 0.8000/7970 (50- and 100-day MAs, upper boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud), 0.7935/22 (lower boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud, September 27 minimum) Resistance: 0.8163 (October high), 0.8200 (psychological) Chart. Daily EUR/GBP Chart. Weekly EUR/GBP Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-10-24/19721-eurgbp-technical-picture Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2920, $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3100, $1.3200; GBP/USD: $1.6100, $1.6200; USD/JPY: 78.95, 79.00, 80.00; AUD/USD: $1.0240, $1.0350, $1.0390, $1.0400; NZD/USD: $0.8100; EUR/GBP: 0.8155. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-10-25/19725-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2900, $1.2910, $1.3000, $1.3075 (500 mio); GBP/USD: $1.6000, $1.6140; USD/JPY: 79.30, 80.00, 80.20; AUD/USD: $1.0250, $1.0350, $1.0400; NZD/USD: $0.8185; EUR/GBP: 0.8135, 0.8150; EUR/JPY: 103.45, 103.50. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-10-26/19755-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. EUR/USD: news from the battlefield Nothing has changed since yesterday: EUR/USD trades in the middle of a flat range, existing since September. The pair consolidates below $1.2950. The 50-day MA approaches the 200-day MA, strengthening the support. EUR/USD trades below the trend line resistance, coming from July lows. Support: $1.2919 (October 24 minimum), $1.29000, $1.2835/00 (200- and 50-day MAs, October minimums). Resistance: $1.3000, $1.3072 (October 5 high), $1.3139 (October high), $1.3171 (September high). Rabobank: We see the risk of a pullback to $1.2836 (200-day MA). The market tension persists, but is slightly calmed by knowledge that the ECB’s OMT awaits. Today watch the US Q3 GDP figures at 12:30 GMT. Positive print is likely to pull the pair down. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-10-26/19757-eurusd-news-battlefield Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. USD/JPY: levels to watch USD/JPY went down from the 4-month maximum of 80.38 to 80.00. The pair remains within a narrow upward channel and maintains its bullish momentum. H4 Ichimoku Chart shows clear uptrend, though some retracements down are certainly possible taking into account the market’s trimmed risk appetite. Sell orders are clustered up at 80.30/50. Support for the greenback lies at 79.95 (July 12 maximum), 79.80 (38.2% retracement of the decline from March to September), 79.65 (September high), 79.45 (200-day MA), 79.22 (September 19 maximum). The pair’s prospects will stop being bullish below 79.22 and levels around 78.00 and lower will get in sight. Credit Suisse: If USD/JPY breaks above 80.65 (June’s maximum, 50% retracement), it will be able to reach 81.49 (61.8% retracement). Chart. Daily USD/JPY Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-10-26/19759-usdjpy-levels-watch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Some JPY charts: is there a bottom foming? Yen will really weaken if it depreciates versus both the greenback and the single currency. Both USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are now in process of completing important base formations. So, if yen bears succeed in this business, there will be a major change in the market. Until then the risks of failure remain as there is and will be too much uncertainty. For now both pairs are heading in one, upward direction. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Chart. Daily EUR/JPY Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/1970-01-01/19762-some-jpy-charts-there-bottom-foming Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. October 29: forex news Demand for safe havens increase. Emergency situation in US: stock trading will be closed on Monday and possibly Tuesday in response to Hurricane Sandy, which is expected to slam into the US East Coast on Monday night, so trading volumes will be smaller than usually which increases the risk of volatile moves. Asian stocks erased gains made earlier today. AUD/USD returned to 50- and 200-day MAs in the $1.0350/40 area. NZD/USD remains in the $0.8250/8135 zone. EUR/USD trades slightly on a downside below $1.2950. On Sunday Greek finance minister said they will not make any further changes to labor laws, which threatens the receipt of the next tranche of aid. Note that the country will run out of cash in the middle of November. Greek government remains between two fires: tough conditions set by the foreign lenders on the one side and striking population on the other. Today keep an eye on a meeting between Italian president Mario Monti and Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. USD/JPY slid from the 4-month maximum at 80.38 to the levels just above the 200-day MA (79.50) making the one-day loss in 2 months on Friday. Japanese retail sales rose only by 0.4% y/y in September (cons.: +1.3%). The Bank of Japan meets tomorrow – it’s under pressure to ease policy as consumer prices contracted for a fifth month in a row. The consensus forecast is that the BOJ will add monetary stimulus. Trading range should be tight ahead of the decision. GBP/USD declines for a second day in a row and trades below $1.6100 after having peaked on GDP figures. USD/CAD reached 0.9993, a new three-month high, as demand for natural resources is down for a second week. USD/CHF is trading sideways above 0.9330. Monday won’t be very eventful, so investors already have Tuesday in mind with German unemployment and Spanish GDP. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-10-29/19783-october-29-forex-news Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted October 30, 2012 Author Share Posted October 30, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. October 30: forex news USD/JPY recoiled up yesterday from the 200-day MA at 79.50 to the levels around 79.90. We’re still waiting for the Bank of Japan’s decision. Another bunch of poor data was released in Japan with household spending and industrial production below expectations. EUR/USD slipped to $1.2900. The euro-sentiment is likely to remain negative until Spain doesn’t request aid. Greek problems are also weighing on the single currency: the country needs resolution on an austerity package to receive its next tranche of aid before it runs out of money in just a few weeks. Today watch the Mario Draghi’s speech and Spanish flash Q3 GDP at 8:00 GMT. Italy holds a 10-year bond auction today. US releases, scheduled for today, are cancelled. AUD/USD is squeezed between the daily MAs around $1.0330. Australian new housing starts fell by 3.7% for September after contracting by 5.3% in August. NZD/USD is at $0.8200. USD/CAD finally broke above parity and reached a record three-month high of 1.0018. GBP/USD hovers around $1.6030 after a 2-day drop. Hurricane Sandy – one of the biggest storms ever to hit the United States – remains in the center of attention. It lashed the densely populated East Coast on Monday, shutting down transportation, forcing evacuations in flood-prone areas and interrupting the presidential campaign. It seems that the worst has passed, though it’s questionable whether the US markets will open today. Now the news will be about damage evaluation. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-10-30/19832-october-30-forex-news Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted October 30, 2012 Author Share Posted October 30, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. EUR/USD: news from the battlefield EUR/USD bounced back above the $1.2900 mark on positive Spanish GDP data after having hit $1.2885 earlier in the day. The pair remains in the same $1.3150/1.2800 flat range. Resistance is seen at $1.3000, $1.3072 (October 5 high), $1.3139 (October high) and $1.3171 (September high). A break higher would pave the ground for further growth. Strong support lies at $1.2885 (today’s low, 50-week MA) and in the 1.2850/30 (200- and 50-day MAs, October minimums) area. The pair remains below the important trend line resistances. A break below $1.2800 would confirm a complete bearish reversal. Commerzbank: Greek problems will come into the limelight. EUR/USD will gradually to the lower boundary of the $1.3150/1.2800 range. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-10-30/19834-eurusd-news-battlefield Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted October 30, 2012 Author Share Posted October 30, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. USD/CAD hovers above parity USD/CAD hovers around parity after having hit a three-month high at 1.0018 earlier today. Yesterday the pair closed above the 200-day MA. Note that USD/CAD remains firmly above the daily Ichimoku Cloud. In our view, a break above parity is a strong bullish sign and could take the pair to 1.0035 (50% Fib. retracement from a 2012 decline), 1.0083 (August 2 high) and 1.0130 (61.8% Fib. retracement). On the H4 chart one may see a bullish MACD divergence. What’s more, the pair is overbought, so we concede a short-term correction. Support is seen at 0.9993 (200-day MA), 0.9975 (100-day MA), 0.9940 (upper boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud) and at 0.9884 (October 3 high). If the pair bounces back from 1.0000 and returns into the Cloud, we would expect a slide towards 0.9750. Scotiabank: USD/CAD will be supported on the back of the low oil prices and soft Canadian fundamentals. TD Securities: In the near-term we expect USD/CAD to enter the 1.0050/1.0150 area. Commerzbank: Greek problems will come into the limelight. EUR/USD will gradually to the lower boundary of the $1.3150/1.2800 range. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Chart. H4 USD/CAD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-10-30/19836-usdcad-hovers-above-parity Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted October 30, 2012 Author Share Posted October 30, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. USD/JPY down after BoJ easing The Bank of Japan left the rate unchanged below 0.10% & expanded its asset-purchase program by 11 trillion yen ($138 billion) to 66 trillion yen. Some investors got disappointed as they were expecting greater stimulus. The BOJ doesn’t expect to meet its 1% inflation target in the period through March 2015. Nomura: “The 10 trillion-yen increase was seen as a minimum expansion, and the failure to reach 15 trillion yen is very disappointing for markets.” USD/JPY slid to 79.27 after the release, but then went up once again approaching the 200-day MA (79.50). In addition, demand for yen as a refuge asset increased as Sandy, the largest tropical storm system on record, hit American Northeast coast. Commerzbank: USD/JPY will test the trend line support at 78.67 after having charted an outside day to the downside and eroded its 200-day MA. The rebound is more likely in case the support holds as the market has recently completed a longer-term bullish falling wedge pattern which brings the target of 81.78/87 (April 20 maximum) in place. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-10-30/19838-usdjpy-down-after-boj-easing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. October 31: forex news Demand for the greenback weakened as the reports tomorrow may show an improvement in Chinese manufacturing PMI, brightening the global economic outlook (cons.: 50.3; prev.: 49.8). Asian stocks rose, MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares added 0.8%. US markets are ready to reopen today after Atlantic storm Sandy swept through US East Coast. AUD/USD moved higher getting closer to $1.0400 and NZD/USD is trading above $0.8200 on better-than-expected building approvals in both Australian and New Zealand. EUR/USD hovers above $1.2950 after yesterday’s rebound to $1.2983. The pair is flat on H1. Today the EU finance ministers will discuss the next aid disbursement for Greece. According to Jean-Claude Juncker, the Eurogroup chief, a 31.5 billion package euro may be released at the November 8 EU summit. There is a market speculation that seven euro area members remain skeptical on extending more aid to Greece. Spain expects to receive the first tranche of the European Union aid package for its banks by early December. Also watch for euro zone’s unemployment rate. USD/JPY managed to close yesterday above the key support of the 200-day MA (79.52) after dipping to 79.27. The Bank of Japan boosted its asset-purchase program by 11 trillion yen ($138 billion) to 66 trillion yen on Tuesday. Japanese Manufacturing PMI was a stand-out disappointment, at 46.9 (prev.: 48.0). USD/CAD bounced back below parity and the 200-day MA. Today watch the Canadian September GDP. GBP/USD remains below the $1.6100 hurdle. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-10-31/19845-october-31-forex-news Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2870, $1.2875, $1.2900, $1.2910, $1.2940, $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3050; GBP/USD: $1.6100; USD/JPY: 79.25, 79.50, 79.60, 79.70, 79.75, 80.00 AUD/USD: 1$.0280, $1.0340, $1.0350; AUD/JPY: 81.25; AUD/NZD: 1.2600. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-10-31/19847-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. EUR/USD: news from the battlefield EUR/USD trades below $1.3000 after having hit $1.2885 yesterday. The pair remains in the same $1.3150/1.2800 flat range. Resistance is seen at $1.3000, $1.3072 (October 5 high), $1.3139 (October high) and $1.3171 (September high). A break higher would pave the ground for further growth. Strong support lies at $1.2885 (yesterday’s low, 50-week MA) and in the $1.2870/30 (200- and 50-day MAs, October minimums) area. The pair remains below the important trend line resistances. A break below $1.2800 would confirm a complete bearish reversal. TD Securities: EUR/USD is consolidating ahead of another push up. In the next days the pair may reach $1.3020. Morgan Stanley: EUR/USD downward correction will continue on the back of the negative news flow from the euro area. In a longer term we remain bullish on the pair. We recommend buying EUR/USD on pullbacks to $1.2775/$1.2800 and targeting $1.3400. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-10-31/19851-eurusd-news-battlefield Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. USD/JPY: analysts doubt sustainable recovery USD/JPY is once again above the key support of the 200-day MA (79.52) the after dipping to 79.27 yesterday. Firstly the markets were somewhat disappointed as the Bank of Japan increased stimulus by 11 trillion yen and not more and bought yen. Then it weakened as demand for safe heavens subsided. Many specialists warn that dollar won’t be able to sustain its recovery. HSBC: QE is actually JPY positive; outright FX intervention efforts won’t prevent USD/JPY from weakening in the long run. The BOJ is unlikely to support USD/JPY floor as the political ramifications could be potentially damaging. The market will soon realize that even the BOJ is incapable of preventing the JPY from strengthening. “USD/JPY has been climbing up the stairs but it will soon fall down the lift shaft.” Rabobank: Demand for yen as safe haven will increase as there are many risky events ahead such as US presidential election and US fiscal cliff. In addition, there’s a lot of uncertainty connected with Spain’s potential bailout request and the ability of Greece to meet its bail-out criteria. Don’t forget about weaker economic growth in the euro area. Barclays: if USD falls below 79.10/00, it will revisit the daily Ichimoku Cloud base around 78.40. Credit Agricole has a more or less neutral view: Concerns over Japan's fiscal problems and deteriorating trade balance are behind the current phase of yen weakness and the BOJ easing is just one catalyst. USD/JPY will likely be steady ahead of US jobs data and US presidential election. Resistance for the pair lies at 80.50/60 yen. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-10-31/19850-usdjpy-analysts-doubt-sustainable-recovery Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. USD/CHF: rangebound in the near term USD/CHF tested the 200-day MA (0.9388) for 3 times during the past month, but didn’t manage to break higher. The line is now reinforced by the bearish daily Ichimoku Cloud and represents solid resistance. Commerzbank: Dips lower will find initial support at 0.9250 ahead of 0.9215/07, which is expected to contain the downside. The market’s risk sentiment is swinging from the risk-on to the risk-off mode and back. Traders are indecisive about evaluating the Fed’s QE3 which makes the outlook for USD/CHF cloudy. In our view, the USD/CHF will remain the 0.9388/9215 range for the time being. The overall bias is negative. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-10-31/19857-usdchf-rangebound-near-term Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. GBP/USD strong ahead of the November BoE GBP/USD tested $1.6136 after a two-day growth. The pair bounced back above the daily Ichimoku Cloud and tests the resistance line, descending from the September highs. The sterling’s recent depreciation was limited by the $1.6000 support. The British currency is supported by speculation that the Bank of England will not ease monetary policy on a November 8 meeting from the current 375 billion pounds. The pound remained strong even after an report showed consumer sentiment declined in September. Barclays: The sterling is supported by the expectations for monetary policy to be less loose as the UK GDP last week indicated the technical recession is over. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-10-31/19859-gbpusd-strong-ahead-november-boe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 1, 2012 Author Share Posted November 1, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. November 1: forex news EUR/USD trades below the $1.3000 handle after peaking $1.3020 yesterday. The Eurogroup postponed the decision on potential allotment of the 31.5-billion-euro bailout tranche to Greece to November 12. Greece desperately needs these funds to avoid bankruptcy. European finance ministers acknowledged the progress in negotiations between Greece and the Troika, but urged the nation’s government to “to solve remaining issues so as to swiftly finalize the negotiations”. French and Italian banks are closed for holidays. JPY weakened versus its main counterparts ahead of the BOJ October 4-5 meeting minutes which are to be released late today (23:50 GMT). USD/JPY returned to 80.00. The market expects the Bank of Japan to continue monetary easing. EUR/JPY went up to levels close to 104 yen on the news that Panasonic Corp. forecasts the second-biggest loss in company history, so that Japan’s trade deficit may increase. Data from China were positive: official manufacturing PMI rose from 49.8 in September to 50.2 in October. HSBC index also improved from 49.1 to 49.5. AUD/USD, however, hasn’t reached $1.0400 today. The pair’s trading choppy: the concerns about further slowdown haven’t been eliminated. NZD/USD is little changed above $0.8200. GBP/USD trades above $1.6100. Sterling is supported by speculation the Bank of England will refrain from easing next week. Moreover, the Swiss National Bank said it boosted the amount of pounds in its foreign-exchange reserves. Watch the manufacturing PMI at 9:30 GMT. USD/CAD is hovering around parity and slightly above the 200-day MA. Canada’s GDP unexpectedly shrank for the first time in 6 months, raising doubts on whether the Bank of Canada will raise rates in the near term. Tomorrow watch the important labor market data. Later today don’t miss the important US releases, especially ADP employment report (12:15 GMT) which may provide some hints for tomorrow’s NFP, unemployment claims, CB consumer confidence & ISM manufacturing PMI. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-01/19867-november-1-forex-news Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 1, 2012 Author Share Posted November 1, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2875, $1.2900, $1.2915. $1.3000, $1.3100; GBP/USD: $1.6100, $1.6120; USD/JPY: 79.25, 79.30, 79.50; AUD/USD: $1.0275; EUR/GBP: 0.8000, 0.8150; EUR/JPY: 104.00; AUD/JPY: 82.20. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-01/19869-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 1, 2012 Author Share Posted November 1, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. USD/JPY is back at 80.00 USD/JPY rose back to 80.00 after dipping to 79.27 on Tuesday. Analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ say that those who just trade on news headlines sold USD/JPY after the Bank of Japan’s meeting. However, the central bank has adopted a rather aggressive easing approach as it plans to keep adding stimulus until deflation ends. This will likely result in weaker yen, the specialists say, thus providing the greenback a chance to continue recovering. Today the greenback has been supported by the demand from Japanese importers. At the same time, the nation’s exporters will be eager to sell US currency above 80.62 (June maximum). As a result, the further advance of the pair will depend on how strong US jobs data released on Friday are. Another factors creating negative pressure on JPY today are positive Chinese PMIs and rising concerns on a near downgrade for Japan coming from Moody’s. Resistance: 80.10 (today’s & July 5 maximum), 80.38 (Friday’s high) and 80.62 (June maximum). Support: 79.66 (August maximum), 79.50 (200-day MA), 79.27 (Tuesday’s minimum). Chart. Daily USD/JPY Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-01/19871-usdjpy-back-8000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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