internationallove Posted September 24, 2012 Author Share Posted September 24, 2012 "EUR/CHF consolidates around 1.21"(2012-09-24) EUR/CHF consolidates around 1.21 EUR/CHF consolidates around the 1.2100 mark for the fourth consecutive day. Early Monday the pair moved down following the negative German business climate data. The pair opened a daily high at 1.2113 before declining to 1.2085. In recent weeks the single currency was strengthening versus the Swiss franc as the positive news from Europe eased crisis concerns. EUR/CHF rose to 1.2183 (the highest level since December 2011) on the wave of a high risk sentiment, but then slid to the 1.2100 level as the demand for safe currencies rose. Zuercher Kantonalbank: In a short term the cross will continue a sideways trend in the 1.2198/2070 range. Chart. H4 EUR/GBP Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-24/19277-eurchf-consolodates-around-121 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 "Key options expiring today"(2012-09-25) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2835, $1.2900, $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3100; GBP/USD: $1.6200; USD/JPY: 77.90, 78.05, 78.60; AUD/USD: $1.0350, $1.0400, $1.0430; EUR/JPY: 101.00, 102.60, 102.90; EUR/GBP: 0.7980. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-25/19282-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 "EUR/USD: news from the battlefield"(2012-09-25) EUR/USD: news from the battlefield Today EUR/USD hit 1-week minimum at $1.2886. MACD gave a bearish signal yesterday. Support: $1.2885 (today’s lows), $1.2827 (200-day MA), $1.2760/45 (50% retracement of the decline from February maximums to July minimums, June highs). The market’s attention is focused primarily on Spain which is to release budget for 2013 this week. Citigroup: “The risks for EUR/USD remain on the downside as investors await a potential bailout request from the Spanish government. Our economists reckon that the bailout request could come only after the Spanish regional elections on October 21.” In addition, there are signs of a further slowdown in the euro zone’s largest economy. Data released yesterday showed that German business sentiment dropped to the worst level since the beginning of 2010. Westpac proposes buying EUR/USD on the dips around $1.2850 as the tail risks in the euro area have declined and the large speculators will likely keep unwinding euro shorts. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-25/19284-eurusd-news-battlefield Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 "JPMorgan: what can pull EUR/USD to $1.25?"(2012-09-25) JPMorgan: what can pull EUR/USD to $1.25? Specialists at JPMorgan offer four key scenarios, which may pull EUR/USD down to $1.25 in Q4: 1) Europe refuses to finance Greek debts because of the disagreement with the new government; 2) Italian election campaign will raise investors’ concerns about budget discipline and stability (in April 2013 the current Prime Minister Mario Monti has to leave); 3) Spain refuses to apply for EFSF financial aid, raising fears that its budget deficit is much bigger than promised; 4) The Fed will become less dovish due to the inflation surge caused by QE3. Specialists, therefore, recommend watching the following events attentively: • FOMC meetings (October 24 and December 12); • Greek negotiations with troika; • ECB meetings (October 4, November 8 and December 6); • EU leaders’ summit (October 18-19); • Spanish regional elections (October 21); • Italian election campaign in late Q4. Photo: WSJ Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-25/19285-jpmorgan-what-can-pull-eurusd-125 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 "Scotiabank: sell EUR/GBP"(2012-09-25) Scotiabank: sell EUR/GBP Strategists at Scotiabank recommend going short on EUR/GBP at 0.7965 with a stop at 0.8030 and a target of 0.7800. In their view, the wave of high risk appetite on the back of global policy easing has already rushed by. As a result, demand is shifting to the currencies, where central banks’ policy is hawkish or neutral (AUD, CAD and NZD). British pound also looks attractive as the BoE’s easing volumes are relatively small and the regulator seems to be concerned about the financial stability. Chart. Daily EUR/GBP Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-25/19288-scotiabank-sell-eurgbp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 "NAB: comments on AUD/USD"(2012-09-25) NAB: comments on AUD/USD AUD/USD keeps hovering around $1.0425 (50-day MA), remaining under pressure in conditions of risk aversion. The Australian currency depreciates after peaking $1.0623 on September 14. However, one should note the Aussie’s firmness: during the last week the pair twice recovered back above the $1.0400 mark. According to analysts at NAB, AUD/USD will stay under pressure until it manages to fix above $1.0460 (Monday’s maximum). In the medium term specialists remain bearish on the Aussie. However, if the RBA remains on hold on the next policy meeting (October 2), a short-term bounce to $1.0500 may happen. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-25/19291-nab-comments-audusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 "MIG Bank: GBP/USD is to weaken"(2012-09-25) MIG Bank: GBP/USD is to weaken Analysts at MIG bank claim that GBP/USD made a “shooting star” on Friday – bearish signal. In addition, the pair is overbought in the short term and capped by strong resistance at $1.6300 (April 30 maximum). Moreover, there’s a long-term descending trend line connecting August 2009 high with the April 2011 maximum. As a result, the specialists expect the pair to weaken in the next few days. In their view, support lies at $1.6164 (September 20 minimum). The bank proposes shorts around $1.6257 targeting $1.6163/1.5980/1.5810 and stopping at $1.6350. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-25/19293-mig-bank-gbpusd-weaken Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 "Press review: the most discussed stories"(2012-09-25) Press review: the most discussed stories Europe Plans to Leverage Euro-Zone Bailout Fund (Der Spiegel) European leaders are planning to leverage the ESM to 2 trillion euro from current 500 billion in order to support the debt-ridden economies if necessary. The leveraging proposal was discussed last Friday on a meeting of euro zone finance ministers in Cyprus. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble is in favor of the plan, but Finnish Finance Minister Jutta Urpilainen said that in this case the ESM will have to be resubmitted to Finnish parliament for approval. Next BOE Chief Must Be Independent of Banks, Cable Says (Bloomberg) In September the Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne formally began to search for a person to replace the current BoE Governor Mervyn King, who steps down on June. U.K. Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg and Business Secretary Vince Cable said the next BoE Governor must be independent of the banking system, hinting the bankers are unwelcome to apply for the position. The Deputy Governor Paul Tucker, Financial Services Authority Chairman Adair Turner and the former head of the U.K. civil service Gus O’Donnell are the favorites to replace King. Special Report - Inside Mario Draghi’s euro rescue plan (Reuters) Reuters has put together the pieces of the ECB puzzle providing a detailed picture of the negotiations that led from Mario Draghi’s shocking pledge to “do whatever it takes to preserve the euro” in July to his September 6 announcement that the ECB is ready to buy “unlimited” amounts of bonds issued by the troubled euro zone nations. The job of the central banker is tough and Draghi was really bold in his gambling: he had to persuade enough members of the ECB's Governing Council to back him up. Luckily for him all but German central banker Jens Weidmann did. Bundesbank was working hard to undermine the ECB President and his plans. Yet, it was another German – the Chancellor Angela Merkel – whose unequivocal support let Draghi get away this his maneuver: Merkel just couldn’t allow the euro zone explode on her watch and the ECB promised the remedy. The drama reached its climax when the market started talking about Weidmann’s intention to resign. Still Bundesbank’s stance ensured that any ECB intervention will come with a strong dose of “conditionality”. Although Draghi has won, there are still many questions about how the bond buying will actually proceed. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! http://www.fbs.com/analytics Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-25/19295-press-review-most-discussed-stories Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 26, 2012 Author Share Posted September 26, 2012 "September 26: forex news"(2012-09-26) September 26: forex news On Wednesday demand for the risky assets remains subdued as news from Europe don’t provide any positive outlook. AUD/USD touched a two-week low at $1.0345 and hovers above the 200-day MA. NZD/USD declined to the $0.8200 level as data showed August New Zealand’s trade balance was worse than economists estimated (-789M vs. -617M forecasted and +97M in July). EUR/USD continues its descent: the pair once again went below $1.2900 and hit 2-week minimum of $1.2864 so far today. Spain’s still ready to explode: yesterday thousands of demonstrators besieged Parliament. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is under great pressure of regional financial problems, the need of more austerity and a possible international rescue of his nation. Greece will hold the first general strike since June. Germany will try to sell up to 5 billion euro in 10-year bunds at 06:00 GMT, while Italy will offer up to 9 billion in 6-month bills. Be ready to more negative headlines. GBP/USD has printed a fresh weekly low of $1.6148. USD/CAD keeps moving up and has already overcome the 0.9800 level. USD/JPY is slowly but surely crawling down: the greenback settled down below 78 yen. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-26/19297-september-26-forex-news Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 26, 2012 Author Share Posted September 26, 2012 "Sumitomo Mitsui: bearish on EUR/JPY"(2012-09-26) Sumitomo Mitsui: bearish on EUR/JPY Analysts at Sumitomo Mitsui think that EUR/JPY may slide to 97.76 yen (the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud and the level where it changed direction). In their view, this may happen already on October 8. Then euro will drop below the Cloud and slide to 94.12 (July minimum). Chart. Daily EUR/JPY Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-26/19301-sumitomo-mitsui-bearish-eurjpy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 26, 2012 Author Share Posted September 26, 2012 "Catalonia wants to be on its own"(2012-09-26) Catalonia wants to be on its own Newsmakers are wondering whether there will soon be a new independent state in Europe. The Catalan regional government has called elections for November 25. This vote will determine the political future of Catalonia. The poll will be about whether Catalonia should stay as it is within Spain or take on more powers to administer its own assets. The central government in Madrid thinks that to solve such issue the referendums are to cover all Spanish territory. The Catalan authorities regard the current dissatisfaction with Madrid’s handling of the crisis as an opportunity to get more autonomy, in particular, control of taxes. The Catalans say that if they determined their fiscal policy themselves, they wouldn’t have needed to ask for a bailout – last month Catalan government requested $6.5 billion from an emergency fund of $23.3 billion set by the central government. If Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy refuses to concede, Catalans will be in rage. If he does, it will infuriate Spanish nationalists. According to Deutsche Bank, “political turmoil in Spain’s richest region could generate the kind of market reaction which would precipitate a request for European support by Madrid.” Photo: Bloomberg Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-26/19305-catalonia-wants-be-its-own Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 26, 2012 Author Share Posted September 26, 2012 "EUR/USD: steady decline?"(2012-09-26) EUR/USD: steady decline? On Wednesday EUR/USD keeps declining for a third day in a row and has already touched $1.2850. The pair has decisively broken below the yesterday’s low at $1.2885. The next downside targets are seen at $1.2825 (200-day MA), $1.2815 (September 7 maximum) and $1.2740 (38.2% Fib. retracement of the recent upward move and June maximum). A break below this last support will make the previously expected rebound to $1.3485 (2012 maximum) very unlikely. Specialists at Rabobank see potential for a decline to $1.2600. Analysts at Credit Suisse also believe a break below $1.2780 will pave the ground for a drop to $1.2500. However, in their view, in the near term an upward reversal is more likely. A break of the $1.2973 resistance (yesterday’s maximum) will let the euro to strengthen to $1.3048 and then to $1.3172. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/1970-01-01/19307-eurusd-steady-decline Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 26, 2012 Author Share Posted September 26, 2012 "USD/CHF: technical levels"(2012-09-26) USD/CHF: technical levels USD/CHF has rebounded from the levels around 0.9240 hit in the middle of the month to the 0.9400 area. At the moment the bulls paused a bit as after reaching the 0.9400/20 resistance band (200-day MA, June minimums, September 13 maximum, downtrend resistance from July highs, 23.6% retracement of the decline from June highs to September lows). This is the key area to watch for further developments. If the bulls succeed, the next resistance levels to watch will lie at 0.9460 (late June low), 0.9500 (May 8 high, August 31 low), 0.9518 (38.2% retracement) and 0.9600 (100-day MA). If the bulls fail to overcome the obstacle mentioned above, the pair will likely drift down to 0.9240 (September lows) and, probably, to 0.9043 (May 1 minimum). Note, however, that the initial pullbacks will be limited by the 100-hour MA at 0.9347 which has already supported the pair for the several times so far. In addition, there’s a good support in the $1.9150/00 zone (100-week MA, the top of the weekly bullish Ichimoku Cloud). Chart. Daily USD/CHF Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/19310-usdchf-technical-levels Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 26, 2012 Author Share Posted September 26, 2012 "Nomura: gold will reach $2000 by the year-end"(2012-09-26) Nomura: gold will reach $2000 by the year-end Gold price is now consolidating between $1788 and $1753 after its advance during the last 2 months. “The lack of a larger pullback from the highs, even with speculative positioning high, suggests that short-term sentiment is quite robust”, says Nomura. Analysts believe that gold will reach $2000 by the end of 2012 as the Fed and other major central banks ease policy. The specialists propose to buy gold around $1750 targeting $1850 in the coming weeks. In the long term investor sentiment about gold is also quite strong as gold ETF holdings keep increasing. Photo by Hans Peter Merten, Getty Images Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-26/19315-nomura-gold-will-reach-2000-year-end Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 26, 2012 Author Share Posted September 26, 2012 "Markets worry about Spain’s growth"(2012-09-26) Markets worry about Spain’s growth The Bank of Spain said today that the country is in a deep recession. According to Spanish central bank, the nation’s GDP fell “at a significant rate” in Q3. Spanish 10-year bond yields reached 6% for the first time in a week. Yesterday 38 people were arrested and 64 injured in Madrid where several thousand people converged on the national Parliament building in central Madrid. The protesters are calling for fresh elections accusing the ruling Popular Party of deceiving the voters when it promised to minimize austerity last November. “The optimism we saw priced into markets after action from central banks is waning,” comments CIBC. BOTMUFJ says that euro may correct even lower after its recent good run. AP Photo/Daniel Ochoa De Olza Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-26/19317-markets-worry-about-spains-growth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 26, 2012 Author Share Posted September 26, 2012 "USD/JPY: minor improvement"(2012-09-26) USD/JPY: minor improvement As one may see from the H1 chart, USD/JPY managed to rise above the short-term trend line at 77.78 yen. Now this line will be playing the role of support. The key target on the upside is 78.00 (psychological level, 100-hour MA, 23.6% retracement of the decline from September 19 maximum of 79.22). Yen weakened as the BOJ board member Sato said that the Bank of Japan is ready to expand monetary stimulus again even after this month’s action and may ponder new steps if necessary. At the broader daily picture the bulls will get the situation back in hand only after USD/JPY rises above 100-day MA (78.90). The pair hasn’t closed above this line since May. Chart. H1 USD/JPY Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-26/19319-usdjpy-minor-improvement Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 26, 2012 Author Share Posted September 26, 2012 "QE3: a curse or a remedy?"(2012-09-26) QE3: a curse or a remedy? On September 13 the Federal Reserve announced its third round of quantitative easing (QE3) that involves monthly purchases of $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities. According to the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, the program is aimed at stimulating the economy and at reducing unemployment. In a short term the announcement offered some relief to the exhausted financial markets. But how will the program affect the economy in a longer term? Some economists really expect QE3 to have a positive impact on the US economy. A drop in borrowing rates might stimulate home sales and, ultimately, boost consumption. However, the Fed’s aggressive actions also draw a wave of critics: many specialists believe the QE3 heightens risks of higher consumer prices in the future. The Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker, for instance, said the program is unlikely to repair the US labor market, but will have a significant impact on the inflation. Many analysts point at the descending effect of a monetary stimulus. The Fed has already injected a lot of money into the economy and the rates already are at the subterranean level. If these conditions are not enough to boost the economy, does it really make sense to keep moving in the same direction? Photo: AFP Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-26/19321-qe3-curse-or-remedy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 "September 27: forex news"(2012-09-27) September 27: forex news The market sentiment is much better than yesterday: risk aversion has stepped back a little, while demand for the risky currencies recovered. AUD/USD bounced back above the $1.0400 mark after a three-day decline. Aussie is pushed up by speculation that China may add monetary stimulus in order to support the economy as the nation’s industrial profits fell for a fifth month. NZD/USD rose to $ 0.8275 after data showed the nation’s business outlook improved this month. As expected, EUR/USD found some support around 200-day MA at $1.2825, but is still trading close to the 2-week minimum hit yesterday. The focus remains on Spain and there’s still high risk of negative headlines which would drag euro down. Spanish 10-year yields are back above 6%. The main source of worry is the nation’s reluctance to ask for financial help. Elsewhere in Europe, Greek Prime minister Antonis Samaras is meeting his coalition partners today to finalize a package of some 11.5 billion euro in spending cuts. Italy will offer up to 7 billion euro of debt today. In US watch for core durable goods orders and pending home sales (see the economic calendar). GBP/USD moves up and has already touched the $1.6200 mark. Great Britain is scheduled to print final Q2 GDP today at 08:30 GMT. The reading of 0.5% contraction is unlikely to be revised. USD/JPY is testing levels on the upside, but remains below 78 yen despite the comments of Japanese monetary officials who are hinting at more easing. The rebound of USD/CHF has stalled ahead of the 200-day MA at 0.9400. USD/CAD declines, but remains above the 0.9800 handle. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-27/19322-september-27-forex-news Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 "EUR/USD: fundamental picture - how to act?"(2012-09-27) EUR/USD: fundamental picture - how to act? As expected, EUR/USD found some support around 200-day MA at $1.2825, but is still trading close to the 2-week minimum hit yesterday. There’s the talk of sellers around $1.2890 and stops which will be activated once the price rises above $1.2920. Analysts at Wels Fargo and RBS are bearish on EUR, Westpac or Rabobank still advice to buy in on the dips. The reason of the current uncertainty is Spain. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy Rajoy struggles to gain acceptance for austerity measures and faces criticism from European leaders for delaying a decision on a bailout for the nation. It seems that Rajoy has decided to avoid asking for European help until yields go higher. Yesterday Spanish 10-year yields returned above 6%. Nomura says yields may return towards the mid-July highs of 7.5%. As a result, from the point of fundamental analysis, euro’s short-term strength represents selling opportunities. Today Spain is to release its budget for 2013 and announce a series of planned structural reform and budget measures and which can form the basis for the reforms likely to be demanded by Spain’s EU partners and accepted by the ECB as the conditions for the ECB to commence secondary market purchases of Spanish debt, underlines NAB. Don’t forget: if Spain doesn’t request for bailout this week, Moody’s may lower it credit rating at the weekend – a chance for euro bears. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-27/19326-eurusd-fundamental-picture-how-act Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 "BofA: bullish on USD/CAD"(2012-09-27) BofA: bullish on USD/CAD Specialists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch recommend going long on USD/CAD at 0.9800 with a stop at 0.9600 and a target of 1.0200. In their view, QE3 is very likely to be ineffective for the US economy. Demand for risky assets, therefore, may decline in the nearest future. What’s more, the widely discussed problem of the US fiscal cliff may lead to fiscal tightening, what will eventually be positive for the greenback. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-27/19328-bofa-bullish-usdcad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 28, 2012 Author Share Posted September 28, 2012 "September 28: forex news"(2012-09-28) September 28: forex news The markets are trading in a risk-on mode as Spain budget plan boosted risk appetite. Moreover, the demand for the high-yielding currencies is supported by speculation that China will add monetary stimulus in order to stimulate growth. China is to release its manufacturing PMI on October 1 (previous: 49.2; forecast: 50). Fitch ratings lowered forecast for China’s growth in 2012 to 7.8%, citing a “deteriorating global growth outlook.” AUD/USD moves up for a second day in a row and trades above the $1.0450 mark. NZD/USD rose to $0.8350 and paired recent losses by reaching the September 14 high. Demand for the kiwi was supported after home building approvals in New Zealand rose in August to a 5-month high. EUR/USD is trading on the upside for the second day. Today the pair opened above $1.2900. There’s a small gap to the upside on H1 chart. Euro shorts squeezed on the talk that Spain is closer to applying for financial help to the ESM and thus activating the ECB bond buying program. Yesterday the nation released budget for 2013. The budget is based mostly on spending cuts see as an effort to pre-empt the likely conditions of an international bailout. Spain’s budget deficit target for the next year is 4.5% compared with 6.3% in 2012. Spanish 10-year yields went below 6%. Yen bought as a refuge strengthened versus all its major counterparts this week. USD/JPY hit 77.43, the minimal level since September 13. Japanese CPI fell by 0.3% in August (y/y) remaining far from the Bank of Japan’s inflation target of 1%. GBP/USD rose above $1.0650. USD/CAD declines for a second consecutive day and trades below 0.9800. A report due today is to show Canada’s GDP grew by 0.1% in July vs. a 0.2% growth in June. USD/CHF keeps moving down after recoiling down from 0.9400. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-28/19337-september-28-forex-news Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 28, 2012 Author Share Posted September 28, 2012 "Key options expiring today"(2012-09-28) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2800, $1.2875, $1.2890, $1.2910, $1.3000; GBP/USD: 1.6150, 1.6235; USD/JPY: 77.25, 77.50, 78.00; USD/CHF: 0.9375; AUD/USD: $1.0400, $1.0420, $1.0470; EUR/JPY: 102.00; EUR/GBP: 0.7900. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-28/19339-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 28, 2012 Author Share Posted September 28, 2012 "Commerzbank: outlook for EUR/USD"(2012-09-28) Commerzbank: outlook for EUR/USD Technical analysts at Commerzbank sound rather optimistic about the near-term outlook for EUR/USD. In their view, the pair’s downside correction may be over – the specialists favor such point of view. At the same time, the bank admits that one still can’t rule out the possibility of the deeper retracement to $1.2649 (the trend line support) before recovering. According to the bank, interim resistance levels for euro lie at $1.3050 and $1.3150/80 ahead of the major one in the $1.3466/1.3541 area (2012 maximum, 50% retracement of the 2011-2012 move, 38.2% retracement of the move down from 2008 and the 200-week MA). Chart. Daily EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-28/19345-commerzbank-outlook-eurusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 28, 2012 Author Share Posted September 28, 2012 "Barclays raised EUR/USD forecast"(2012-09-28) Barclays raised EUR/USD forecast Economists at Barclays raised their EUR/USD forecasts on the back of the central bank’s monetary actions. In their view, the Fed’s easing measures will weigh on the greenback because of the uncertainty caused by the unlimited nature of the QE3. Meanwhile, ECB’s program is set to make previous monetary easing decisions more effective. Specialists expect the euro to reach $1.35 by the end of 2012, up from its previous forecast of $1.20. The bank also raised its six-month forecast to $1.28 from $1.17 and its 12-month projection to $1.22 from $1.15. Chart. Weekly EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-28/19346-barclays-raised-eurusd-forecast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted October 1, 2012 Author Share Posted October 1, 2012 "October 1: forex news"(2012-10-01) October 1: forex news Demand for the high-yielding currencies is down as the signs of a global economic slowdown in Europe and Asia supported demand for safe havens. China manufacturing PMI remains below 50 for a second month in a row for the first time since 2009. AUD/USD opened the week with a gap and plunged below the 200-day MA. The pair touched $1.0325 (lowest since September 11), but then bounced back to the $1.0350 levels. Today there is a bank holiday in China and Australia. NZD/USD also moves down and trades below the $0.8300 mark. EUR/USD opened the week with the small gap on the downside. The pair’s currently trading around the 200-day MA at $1.2825 after testing $1.2800 earlier today. Once again, Spain is in the center of attention. Spanish banks stress tests released on Friday showed the nation’s banking sector needs 59.3 billion euro ($76.3 billion) in extra capital out of 100 billion euro bailout. Today Moody’s is due to finally conclude review of Spanish sovereign rating. There’s a considerable risk of the downgrade from Baa3 to the junk grades. Elsewhere the Troika representatives returned to Athens after a week’s break to continue the assessment of Greece’s finances. In Europe watch for August unemployment rate (an increase to 11.4% is expected) and in the US – for September ISM Manufacturing PMI (cons.: 49.8; prev.: 49.6) and Ben Bernanke’s speech (see the economic calendar). GBP/USD keeps declining for a second day in a row and touched $1.6107 (the lowest point since September 13). Today UK is scheduled to release manufacturing PMI: the index forecasted to sign contraction for a fifth consecutive month. USD/JPY is once again below 78 yen. Japan’s Tankan manufacturing index remains in the negative territory pointing at pessimism among large manufacturers. USD/CAD opened the week with a gap on the upside, but still hovers around 0.9840. USD/CHF’s struggling to hold above 200-day MA at 0.9400. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-10-01/19357-october-1-forex-news Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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