internationallove Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 "EUR/USD: consolidating within downtrend "(2012-07-26) EUR/USD: consolidating within downtrend EUR/USD is consolidating in the $1.2130/65 area after yesterday it gained about 80 pips on the ECB’s Nowonty comments about the possibility of giving a banking license to the ESM. Spanish 10-year government bond yields declined from the record highs around 7.75% to the levels near 7.38%. Analysts at Credit Agricole think that any bounce of the single currency will be short-lived. “The ECB is still quite divided on the issue of giving the ESM a banking license”, say the specialists. At the same time, the bank underlines that the single currency will be supported ahead of the Fed’s meeting next week (August 1) on the talk that US central bank may take some easing steps. Speculation about the possibility of such action will strengthen if weak US Q2 GDP is released on Friday. Don’t forget, however, that the central bank extended Operation Twist in June to the end of 2012. Support: $1.2130 (today’s minimums, Monday’s highs, 100-hour MA), $1.2065 (Monday’s minimum), $1.2040 (2-year minimum hit on Tuesday). Resistance: $1.2165 (yesterday’s maximums/July 12/23 minimums), $1.2180/90 (July 16, 17 minimums). Chart. H1 EUR/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-26/18461-eurusd-consolidating-within-downtrend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 "AUD/USD: technical comments"(2012-07-26) AUD/USD: technical comments On Thursday AUD/USD trades above $1.0300, demonstrating growth for a second consecutive day. As can be seen from the daily chart, today the pair trades close to the lower boundary of an upward channel existing since June. Yesterday the bulls managed to fix above an important 200-day MA. On the H4 chart the pair trades close above the up-directed 200-, 100- and 50-period MAs. Resistance: $1.0400; $1.0443 (July 19 maximum); $1.0450 (April 12-13 double top); $1.0473 (April maximum); $1.0500; $1.0557 (March 27 maximum); $1.0635 (March 19 maximum); $1.0750/60 (Sep. and Oct. 2011 maximums); $1.0855 (2012 maximum) Support: $1.0300/10 (psychological and 50-period MA on the H4 chart); $1.0280 (200-day MA); $1.0264 (100-period MA on the H4 chart); $1.0200 (psychological and a 100-day MA); $1.0168 (200-period MA on the H4 chart); $1.0100 (July 12 minimum); $1.0057 (50-day MA); $0.9968 (June 22 minimum); $0.9579 (June 1 minimum) In our view, a medium-term uptrend looks rather resilient: further advance of the Aussie may lead AUD/USD to $1.0443 (July maximum) and $1.0473 (April maximum). On a downside, a break below the 200-day MA ($1.0280) wi Chart. Daily AUD/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-26/18463-audusd-technical-comments Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 "Westpac: outlook for AUD/USD"(2012-07-26) Westpac: outlook for AUD/USD According to analysts at Westpac, AUD/USD is unlikely to breach the $1.0350-1.0400 area without Fed or ECB intervention. Specialists, however, note the resilience of demand for the Aussie this month. In their view, in a near term $1.0400 levels look a little bit pricey for the pair. They expect AUD/USD to return to similar levels no later than Q4. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-26/18467-westpac-outlook-audusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 "USD/JPY: technical update "(2012-07-26) USD/JPY: technical update The outlook for USD/JPY is neutral on the H1 chart where the greenback’s fluctuating in narrow range of 78.00/30 and negative on H4 chart where we the pair remains inside descending channel. The pair will likely stay above 78.00 helped by demand from Japanese importers below this point at the risk of the BOJ intervention. At the same time, from the technical point of view, the next major support is only at 77.65 (June minimum). The bulls will take over the initiative once USD/JPY managed to return above 200-day MA above 79.00. Resistance: 78.27 (yesterday’s maximum), 78.45 (July 20 minimum), 78.80 (July 20 maximum), 79.00. Support: 78.00, 77.65 (June minimum), 77.35 (February 14 minimum, January 6 and 19 maximums). Chart. Daily USD/JPY Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-26/18465-usdjpy-technical-update Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 "Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD"(2012-07-26) Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD GBP/USD trades on a downside for a second day. The sentiment surrounding the sterling remains anxious: the pair remains under pressure mainly after yesterday’s negative UK GDP release. The data could encourage the BoE to ease monetary policy further, weighing on the British currency. According to technical analysts at Commerzbank, a recent failure to overcome the $1.5736/85 resistance area is likely to bring GBP/USD down to $1.5392 and then to $1.5267. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-26/18469-commerzbank-comments-gbpusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 "EUR/JPY: short-term technical "(2012-07-26) EUR/JPY: short-term technical EUR/JPY has hit 12-year minimum this week at 94.10 on concerns about Greece and Spain. Japanese currency remains strong despite comments and threats of Japan’s monetary authorities. Risk appetite remains lackluster, so yen will likely continue being investors’ refuge. Some analysts say the level of 94.00 yen may be a kind of a threshold eyed by the Bank of Japan as it’s said about the 78.00 mark for USD/JPY. At the same time, EUR/JPY remains within a clear downtrend and the negative bias here is much stronger than in USD/JPY taking into account the persistent euro zone’s problems. All in all, you may try small shorts below 95.20 as the EUR/JPY will likely revisit the recent lows. Resistance: 95.20 (yesterday’s maximum), 95.40 (Friday’s closing level) and the 95.80 area (200-hour MA). Support: 94.65 (50-hour MA), 94.40 and 94.10 (see the chart below). Chart. H1 EUR/JPY Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-26/18470-eurjpy-short-term-technical Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 "USD/CAD: comments from Credit Agricole, TD "(2012-07-26) USD/CAD: comments from Credit Agricole, TD Credit Agricole: in the near term USD/CAD will keep trading sideways between 1.0250 and 1.0065 given the Bank of Canada’s tightening bias on the one hand and no clear resolution on the euro zone crisis and slower growth in the US on the other. TD Securities: USD/CAD failed to deliver on the bull flag formation. The pair may still be consolidating after advance in May/June. As a result, the move higher may eventually resume: the bulls need to break above the channel resistance around 1.0270. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-26/18473-usdcad-comments-credit-agricole-td Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 27, 2012 Author Share Posted July 27, 2012 July 27: forex news (2012-07-27) July 27: forex news Investors’ sentiment improved, MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 1.6% today, while S&P 500 rose by 1.7% yesterday. High-yielding currencies like Aussie and kiwi are trading on the upside. EUR/USD edged slightly higher, but its rate little changed during the Asian session and the pair’s hovering below resistance at $1.2300 which has stopped its advance yesterday. Spanish 10-year yields subsided on Thursday by 45 bps to 6.95%. In Japan core CPI fell by 0.2% in June y/y (cons.: 0.0%). Tokyo core CPI, as expected, declined by 0.6% in July. The data shows that the nation is struggling to defeat deflation and the odds are that Japanese monetary authorities will do more monetary stimulus. Yen went lower against most of its major peers. USD/JPY remains trapped in the 78.30/00 area. The day of US GDP has finally come. Advance data for Q2 q/q are released at 12:30 GMT (Prev.: 1.9%, cons.: 1.5%) – this is surely the key publication of the day. The market’s speculating that the Fed may start QE3, so the greenback weakened versus the majority of its counterparts this week. Also watch for German prelim CPI m/m during the European morning and Spanish unemployment figures at 07:00 GMT. Italy will try to sell up to 8.5 billion euro in 6-month bills. Italian 10-year yield eased down to 6.04%. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-27/18477-july-27-forex-news Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 30, 2012 Author Share Posted July 30, 2012 July 30: forex news (2012-07-30) July 30: forex news The market was rather quiet during today’s Asian session; the major pairs were going through consolidation. Investors’ attention will be focused on peripheral euro zone nations: Spanish flash Q2 GDP is released at 07:00 GMT (prev.: -0.3%, cons.: -0.4%). Later in the day Italy plans to sell 5.5 billion euro in long-term debt, including 10-year bonds. Current Italian 10-year bond yield is below 6% at 5.96%. Bloomberg reports that the European Commission will publish today household sentiment which may have dropped in July to almost 3-year minimum. In addition, euro is under pressure before data tomorrow may show that the region’s unemployment increased to a new record of 11.2% in June. The ECB President Mario Draghi meets US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner today, though no press conference will follow. Moody’s Investors Service warned that the ECB can’t resolve the debt crisis alone. EUR/USD is trading in the $1.2292 area, about 100 pips below Friday’s peak. US dollar edged up against higher-yielding currencies, though demand for it is limited before the Fed’s 2-day meeting which starts on Tuesday. USD/JPY returned to 78.35 after testing the levels above 78.60 at the end of last week. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-30/18498-july-30-forex-news Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 30, 2012 Author Share Posted July 30, 2012 CFTC trader positioning data (2012-07-30) CFTC trader positioning data The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday, July 20 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that on a week ended July 24: Net long US dollar positions decreased to $19.8 billion (-23%), while net long yen positions surged to $4 billion (+128%) on the back of negative US data. The value of the euro net short positions declined to $ 23.4 billion. (-9%). The single currency fell to its lowest level since June 2010 but then bounced back as the euro shorts shrank. Investors expect the Swiss franc to deppreciate: net short positions rose to $3.3 billion (+10%). On the previous week the Aussie and the kiwi net longs increased. Net short positions on the loonie moved up, while on the pound - declined. It’s necessary to note that the figures cited above are always a week old at the time of their release. Never the less, CFTC data gives a good oversight into how the market is positioned and if/how these positions are being unwound. Although the CME speculators represent a small fraction of trading in the currency markets, their trades are widely seen as typical of hedge fund investors' currency movements. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-30/18503-cftc-trader-positioning-data Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 30, 2012 Author Share Posted July 30, 2012 AUD/USD: technical comments (2012-07-30) AUD/USD: technical comments On Monday AUD/USD slid from a four-month high as the risk appetite worsened ahead of the euro zone’s reports on consumer confidence and unemployment. The pair rose confidently for three consecutive days and managed to test a strong resistance at $1.0475, completely offsetting the May decline. AUD/USD remains in a bullish channel since June. On the H4 chart the pair trades above the up-directed 200-, 100- and 50-period MAs. In our view, a medium-term uptrend looks rather resilient: if the bulls manage to fix above $1.0475, a further advance to $1.0855 will become possible. On a downside, a break below the 200-day MA ($1.0280) will pave the ground for a further decline to $1.0176 (July 25 minimum) and to $1.0100 (July 12 minimum). Resistance: $1.0473 (April maximum); $1.0557 (March 27 maximum); $1.0635 (March 19 maximum); $1.0750/60 (Sep. and Oct. 2011 maximums); $1.0855 (2012 maximum) Support: $1.0348 (50-period MA on the H4 chart); $1.0280 (200-day MA); $1.0283 (100-period MA on the H4 chart); $1.0200 (200-period MA on the H4 chart); $1.0191 (100-day MA); $1.0100 (July 12 minimum); $1.0083 (50-day MA); $0.9968 (June 22 minimum); $0.9579 (June 1 minimum) Chart. Daily AUD/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-30/18506-audusd-technical-comments Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 JPMorgan: bullish on NZD/USD (2012-07-31) JPMorgan: bullish on NZD/USD On Tuesday NZD/USD trades close to $0.8100, staying above the upper boundary of the sideway channel the pair left on Friday. The pair traded sideways after an uptrend early June. According to analysts at JP Morgan, NZD/USD is likely to reach $0.8240 (the highest since April 30). Specialists believe the recent kiwi’s rally suggests there is potential for the pro-risk sentiment to push the pair higher. On a downside, nearest support for the pair lies at $0.7960 (crossing of the 100- and 200-day MAs). Chart. Daily NZD/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-31/18527-jpmorgan-bullish-nzdusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 Staff changes in the SNB (2012-07-31) Staff changes in the SNB Fritz Zurbruegg will join the 3-person governing board of the Swiss National Bank and work together with Chairman Thomas Jordan and Vice Chairman Jean-Pierre Danthine. Zurbruegg, 52, used to be the head of the federal budget office. His work at the SNB starts on August 1. As you probably remember, Philipp Hildebrand, the former chief of the Swiss central bank resigned after a currency trading scandal in January. Zurbruegg will now be tasked, along with Mr. Jordan and Mr. Danthine, with maintaining the currency cap and managing forex reserves so as to keep the Swiss franc pegged to the euro at 1.20 euro per franc. "He's a very good and experienced economist, who had excellent international contacts due to his many years in Washington," said Aymo Brunetti, former head of the government's economics secretariat (SECO) and now head of a research institute at the University of Berne, who worked closely with Zurbruegg during the financial crisis. "He can stand his own ground in the global arena, and from my point of view this quality is at the current time a particular asset for the central bank." Photo Reuters Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-31/18534-staff-changes-snb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 QE3 is possible, but “in reserve for now” (2012-07-31) When one thinks about the Fed these days, the most common question which comes to mind is “When?” – When will Bernanke and his colleagues finally announce QE3? It’s been already more than a year since QE2 finished and the talk about the next round has begun. The question is as pressing as it could be as the Federal Reserve announces its policy stance tomorrow. Experts answer: “Later, not tomorrow”. Rabobank: “The fact that the Committee extended its current asset purchase program, Operation Twist, at its last meeting in June would present a substantial hurdle to launching another asset purchase program (QE3 or sterilized purchases) this week. The Committee may prefer to have some ammunition left to offset the fiscal cliff, which will present itself at the start of 2013. Therefore, we would probably have to see a further deterioration in economic data or at least a prolonged episode of the weak data that we are seeing now, before the Fed makes that decision. However, the Fed does have other options that may offer some support in the meantime.” NAB: “With little momentum in the economy, a high level of uncertainty about the future pace of growth and both unemployment and inflation below the Fed’s view of their desirable level, additional monetary easing is extremely likely. We suspect this won’t mean an announcement of additional QE following the meeting currently underway, given ‘operation twist’, which is intended to impact on the economy in a similar way to QE, extended in the previous meeting this appears too soon. A more likely intermediate step would be to extend the Fed’s forward guidance on how long the Feds Fund Rate will remain exceptionally low from late 2014 into 2015. However, the Fed Chairman has explicitly identified further QE as one of the measures they would consider if they decided to ease policy further. Therefore, additional QE is possible, although it may be kept in reserve for now.” Image from williambanzai7.blogspot.com Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-31/18539-qe3-possible-reserve-now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 QE3 is possible, but “in reserve for now” (2012-07-31) When one thinks about the Fed these days, the most common question which comes to mind is “When?” – When will Bernanke and his colleagues finally announce QE3? It’s been already more than a year since QE2 finished and the talk about the next round has begun. The question is as pressing as it could be as the Federal Reserve announces its policy stance tomorrow. Experts answer: “Later, not tomorrow”. Rabobank: “The fact that the Committee extended its current asset purchase program, Operation Twist, at its last meeting in June would present a substantial hurdle to launching another asset purchase program (QE3 or sterilized purchases) this week. The Committee may prefer to have some ammunition left to offset the fiscal cliff, which will present itself at the start of 2013. Therefore, we would probably have to see a further deterioration in economic data or at least a prolonged episode of the weak data that we are seeing now, before the Fed makes that decision. However, the Fed does have other options that may offer some support in the meantime.” NAB: “With little momentum in the economy, a high level of uncertainty about the future pace of growth and both unemployment and inflation below the Fed’s view of their desirable level, additional monetary easing is extremely likely. We suspect this won’t mean an announcement of additional QE following the meeting currently underway, given ‘operation twist’, which is intended to impact on the economy in a similar way to QE, extended in the previous meeting this appears too soon. A more likely intermediate step would be to extend the Fed’s forward guidance on how long the Feds Fund Rate will remain exceptionally low from late 2014 into 2015. However, the Fed Chairman has explicitly identified further QE as one of the measures they would consider if they decided to ease policy further. Therefore, additional QE is possible, although it may be kept in reserve for now.” Image from williambanzai7.blogspot.com Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS. Comment here QE3 is possible, but Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 GBP/USD: technical comments (2012-07-31) GBP/USD declines for a second consecutive day after on Friday the pair reached a five-week high. Sterling tested the upper boundary of a sideways channel aligned with the 200-day MA, but then slipped back. On the H4 chart GBP/USD trades above the up-headed 200-, 100- and 50-day MAs. The pair has been bouncing in a flat since June after trading in a bearish channel in May. In our view, GBP/USD is likely to remain in a sideway channel in the nearest future because of the strong resistance levels concentrated in the $1.5743/80 area. A close above $1.5780 could open the way for a further rise to $1.5904. On a downside the next support for the pair out of the bounds of the sideways channel lies at $1.5392 (July 12 minimum) and at $1.5267/33 (June and 2012 minimums). Chart. Daily GBP/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-31/18540-gbpusd-technical-comments Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 Roubini: 5 reasons why US growth will slow (2012-07-31) Nouriel Roubini is ‘cheering us up’ with another article in which he prophesizes gloomy future fort the US. Well, one can’t write something optimistic after he’s officially dubbed “Dr. Doom”, can he? Roubini gave 5 reasons why US economic growth will slow further in the second half of 2012 and be even lower in 2013: 1. US GDP growth in the second quarter has decelerated from a mediocre 1.8% in Q1 to 1.5% in Q2, as job creation – averaging 70,000 a month – fell sharply. 2. Expectations of the “fiscal cliff” – automatic tax increases and spending cuts set for the end of this year – and the presidential elections will affect spending and growth. 3. The fiscal cliff would amount to a 4.5%-of-GDP drag on growth in 2013 if all tax cuts and transfer payments were allowed to expire and draconian spending cuts were triggered. Tax increases and spending cuts will be milder, but even if the fiscal cliff turns out to be a mere 0.5% of GDP and annual growth at the end of the year is just 1.5%, as seems likely, the fiscal drag will suffice to slow the economy to stall speed: a growth rate of barely 1%. 4. Growth in disposable income has been sustained since last year by another $1.4 trillion in tax cuts and extended transfer payments. That means US is stealing some growth from the future. 5. Negative external factors: escalating euro zone crisis, an increasingly hard landing for China, a generalized slowdown of emerging-market economies and the risk of higher oil prices in 2013 as the conflict with Iran progresses. Roubini expects more QE from the Fed, but the economist thinks it won’t be efficient as US interest rates are already extremely low. US dollar will remain strong due to the risk aversion created by Europe and amid easing in other countries. As a result, the policies won’t help and US growth will be weaker. According to Roubini, significant equity-price correction could trigger the contraction of US economy in 2013. The review is based on Mr. Roubini’s article for Project-Syndicate, 2012 Source: The Australian Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-31/18544-roubini-5-reasons-why-us-growth-will-slow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 "August 6: forex news"(2012-08-06) August 6: forex news EUR/USD is trading about 60 pips below 1-month maximum around $1.2440. Spanish 10-year yields closed on Friday right below the critical 7% mark, while Italian ones closed at 6.08%. Demand for the euro was limited before data tomorrow may show that Germany’s factory orders and Italy’s industrial production fell in June. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) of shares gained 1.8%, snapping a three-day drop: markets still expect central bankers to stimulate economic growth. Demand for safe currencies, therefore, declined: Japanese yen and US dollar touched the lowest in more than three weeks against the euro. However, risky currencies’ growth is limited and “safe havens” have already started going up ahead of important events scheduled this week. USD/JPY remains flat, demonstrating a decline today. Risky currencies carefully weaken after Friday’s rally on US NFP release: AUD/USD trades around $1.0560, slightly below a four-month high, while NZD/USD slipped from a three-month high and trades below $0.8200. USD/CAD trades on its lowest level in three month, hovering right above parity. Events to watch today: Euro area: Sentix investor confidence (8:30 GMT) is expected to decline from -29.6 in July to -30.8 in August. The indicator is in the negative zone since the second half of 2011. US: You must have missing Bernanke with all the talk about the ECB, haven’t you? Well, we’re going to hear the news about the Fed’s Chairman anyway as he will speak in a prerecorded video about economic measurement before the 32nd General Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth. Bernanke may add some comments about the central bank’s decision to add monetary stimulus last week, but will probably say he’s still worried about the state of American economy. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-06/18629-august-6-forex-news Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 "Key options expiring today"(2012-08-06) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2300, $1.2400, $1.2500 (large); GBP/USD: $1.5600; USD/JPY: 77.75, 78.00, 78.25, 78.35, 79.00, 79.20; AUD/USD: $1.0425, $1.0500, $1.0530; EUR/JPY: 95.50; EUR/GBP: 0.7775. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-06/18631-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 "FX majors from top forecasters"(2012-08-06) FX majors from top forecasters Here are the forecasts for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and EUR/JPY from top forecasters. Data were submitted on August 3. Source: FX Week Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-06/18633-fx-majors-top-forecasters Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 USD/JPY: weekly Ichimoku report USD/JPY: weekly Ichimoku report Weekly USD/JPY On the weekly chart there was another hammer-like candle formed last week, the same as the week before. The market seems well supported above 78 yen whether it’s due to the risk of the Bank of Japan’s intervention or something else. Tenkan-sen (1) is no longer eager on the upside: the line has turned horizontal at 79.26 and provided resistance for the prices. The next resistance lies at Cloud’s top and the long-term downtrend resistance line around 80.50. USD/JPY is going sideways and will soon face the bottom on the Cloud which is turning upwards. This line may help the pair if the bulls manage to grasp it and head up following its lead. If the bears pull the pair below Kumo and key support in the 78 yen area, USD/JPY will become more vulnerable for further declines. The next support lies at 77.30 (lower border of the Cloud). The Ichimoku Cloud (3) remains extremely thin indicating that the market is in the indecision mode. Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Daily USD/JPY On the daily chart the prices managed to get above Tenkan-sen (1). Now this line together with the recent minimums is supporting USD/JPY. As for the resistance, there’s one at 79.00, psychological level plus the horizontal Kijun-sen (2). The bulls will also face some hurdles around 78.60/75, the upper line of the pair’s current consolidation range. The lines on the chart are going sideways, so, as it was last week, the chart doesn’t show potential for some extensive moves. This week we will probably see the pair above 78 yen as it continues to struggle on the upside. The Bank of Japan will probably stay on hold, but all speaks in favor of more easing in future. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-06/18635-usdjpy-weekly-ichimoku-report Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 "CFTC trader positioning data"(2012-08-06) CFTC trader positioning data The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday, August 4, by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that on a week ended July 31: Non-commercial currency traders decreased their bets in favor of the U.S. dollar two days before ECB President Mario Draghi disappointed the markets. The value of the dollar's net long positions fell to $13.65 billion in the week ended July 31 from $20.44 billion the previous week. Euro net short positions declined in the latest week to 139K contracts from 155K contracts in the prior week. From the chart below you may see that the number of euro shorts squeezed to the January level. At the same time, the single currency trades about 700 pips below its January levels. It means the potential for further short squeezing is low. Source: Zerohedge Demand for safe Japanese yen keeps growing: net long positions increased to 32K contracts by 7K contracts. British pound net short positions declined to 1.8K contracts. Investors cut Swiss franc net short positions by 7K to 19K contracts. It is necessary to note the demand for Canadian dollar grew significantly to 12K long contracts. Net long New Zealand dollar positions increased by 1.3K to 10K contracts, while net long Aussie positions rose by 10K to 73K contracts. It’s necessary to note that the figures cited above are always a week old at the time of their release. Never the less, CFTC data gives a good oversight into how the market is positioned and if/how these positions are being unwound. Although the CME speculators represent a small fraction of trading in the currency markets, their trades are widely seen as typical of hedge fund investors' currency movements. In the COT report all the market players are divided into three categories: hedgers (commercials), big speculators (non-commercials) and small traders (non-reportable positions). We analyze only non-commercial positions (mainly, these are banks and investment funds). We recommend you paying attention to: Extreme Positions: If everyone is already long or short it is a strong indication price may reverse because there is no one left for buyers to buy from and no one left for sellers to sell to. Changes in Market Positions: When large speculators change their position and go from net long to net short or vice versa, there typically is a good reason they do this. Changes in Open Interest: Rising or falling open interest may reflect directional commitment or lack thereof and therefore indicate strength or potential reversal of a particular price trend. Comment here CFTC trader positioning data // FBS Markets Inc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 "BNZ: outlook for NZD/USD"(2012-08-06) BNZ: outlook for NZD/USD Specialists at Bank of New Zealand recommend buying NZD/USD on dips towards $0.7850, because they expect the pair to edge higher by the end of 2012. In their view, the likelihood of further global policy easing, a high and rising interest rate differential, and buoyant soft commodity prices will support the kiwi. Chart. Daily NZD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-06/18645-bnz-outlook-nzdusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 "BBH: comments on AUD/USD"(2012-08-06) BBH: comments on AUD/USD According to specialists at BBH, AUD/USD weekly close above $1.0550 opened the way to the $1.0640-70 area. Analysts warn, however: investors don’t expect RBA to cut rates and buy Aussie ahead of the RBA meeting. As a result, AUD is vulnerable to "buy the rumor, sell the fact" trading after the RBA. What’s more, squeezing of short positions on EUR/AUD may also hurt the Australian currency. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-06/18648-bbh-comments-audusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 "Macroeconomic indicators"(2012-08-06) Macroeconomic indicators The table below provides recent data on the main macroeconomic indicators and is an extremely valuable resource for any trader. Table. Main macroeconomic indicators Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-30/18520-macroeconomic-indicators Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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