internationallove Posted July 12, 2012 Author Share Posted July 12, 2012 "Aussie hit by poor jobs data"(2011-07-12) Aussie hit by poor jobs data Australian dollar dropped versus the greenback from the levels close to the 200-day MA breaching uptrend support line from the beginning of June. Aussie got hurt due to the discouraging Australian labor market data: the number of jobs contracted by 27K last month (vs. + 0.2K expected). Australian currency is also affected by the expectation of Chinese growth slowdown. China’s GDP is released tomorrow and its growth rate is forecasted to decline from 8.1% in the first 3 months of the year to 7.9% in Q2. Analysts at Westpac claim that Australian jobs report is “pretty horrible”. The specialists underlined that all jobs that were added were part-time and that’s a bad sign. Strategists at NAB, on the other hand, think that things as not as gloomy as they seem. In their view, the unemployment rate of 5.2% remains low by historical standards. The odds of another RBA rate cut increased, but such move in August still seems unlikely as Australia’s monetary authorities will like to watch for the effects of their recent rate cuts. The central bank cut rates in May and June to 3.5% and stayed on hold in July. AUD/USD set the daily minimum at $1.0135 and then recoiled up to $1.0150. Support lies at $1.0125 (June 28 maximum), $1.0090 and $1.0055. Resistance lies at $1.0200, $1.0225 and $1.0240. Chart. H4 AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-12/18270-aussie-hit-poor-jobs-data Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 12, 2012 Author Share Posted July 12, 2012 "Commerzbank: forecast for GBP/USD"(2011-07-12) Commerzbank: forecast for GBP/USD Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that GBP/USD has recently completed consolidation. In their view, British currency will return to $1.5600 and then slide from this point firstly to $1.5403 (June 8 minimum) and eventually to $1.5268/33 (June 1 minimum and 2012 minimum) and then possibly to $1.5000/1.4990. According to the bank, resistance lies at $1.5593/1.5600 (June 25 maximum, June 7 peak) and $1.5750/85 (200-day, 200-week MAs, 50% Fibo retracement of the decline in May). Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-12/18272-commerzbank-forecast-gbpusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 12, 2012 Author Share Posted July 12, 2012 "Barclays Capital: bearish on USD/JPY"(2011-07-12) Barclays Capital: bearish on USD/JPY Analysts at Barclays Capital are bearish on USD/JPY and recommend going short on the pair at 79.6, setting a stop at 80.0 and targeting at 78.0. In their view, slowed global growth and European woes are likely to push the Japanese currency up, while the BoJ is unlikely to extend the asset purchase program. However, improving risk sentiment and more aggressive BoJ easing could threaten the yen’s strength. Japan’s monetary authorities claim they are ready to loosen policy in order to reduce the deflationary pressure on the economy. Core consumer prices contracted for the first time in 4 months sliding by 0.1% y/y in May, while Tokyo core CPI fell by 0.6% in June – the BOJ’s 1%-inflation target seems like very hard to attain. http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/July2012/12_07_12/daily_usdjpy_11.07._13-13.gif[/img ] Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-12/18274-barclays-capital-bearish-usdjpy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 12, 2012 Author Share Posted July 12, 2012 "NAB: AUD/USD to fall below parity"(2011-07-12) NAB: AUD/USD to fall below parity Analysts at NAB expect AUD/USD to drop below parity by the end of 2012 on the back of the slowed global growth and lower prices on raw materials. Specialists devote considerable attention to weak economic releases coming from China lately. China’s slowed economic growth could pull AUD/USD to $0.97. According to CFTC report, traders remain in net short positions on AUD for six consecutive weeks (the longest stretch since 2009) as falling export prices raise concerns the RBA will cut rates further. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-12/18276-nab-audusd-fall-below-parity Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 12, 2012 Author Share Posted July 12, 2012 "EUR/USD: fundamental & technical"(2011-07-12) EUR/USD: fundamental & technical Fundamental - Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy announced yesterday 65 billion euro ($80 billion) of new austerity measures in a renewed effort to meet EU budget targets after the nation was granted another year to reduce the budget deficit. Now Spain has until 2014 to bring its deficit within the EU’s 3%. This is Spain’s fourth austerity package in 7 months and the new flashpoint for supports and the opposition. - Finland is in discussions to get shares in Spanish banks as collateral in exchange for its contribution to the bailout. - Euro zone May industrial output +0.6% m/m, -2.8% y/y, better than consensus forecast. - ECB monthly bulletin: heightened uncertainty, some downside risks to growth outlook have materialized. Spanish 10 year yields are up by 3 bps on day at 6.61%. Technical Strategists at RBS recommend selling EUR/USD up to $1.2290 (June minimum) targeting $1.1875 (2010 minimum) stopping above $1.2350 (the recent cluster of daily maximums). Analysts at UBS claim that key support for EUR/USD lies at $1.2152. If euro breaches this level, it will slide to $1.2000. Resistance lies at $1.2336 and $1.2402. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-12/18278-eurusd-fundamental-technical Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 12, 2012 Author Share Posted July 12, 2012 "China's GDP is to disappoint markets"(2011-07-12) China's GDP is to disappoint markets China’s GPD release on Friday attracts investors’ attention as will define the risk sentiment and influence the commodity currencies. Most analysts expect the second largest economy in the world to grow below the expectations in Q2 (consensus: 7.9%; previous print: 8.1%). Experts at Development Research Centre expect China’s economy to grow by 7.5% in Q2. In the second half of 2012, however, the economy is likely to recover modestly as the monetary policy measures will bear fruit. China’s economy could grow around 8% in 2012. Specialists believe the world's second-largest economy is entering a phase of more modest expansion in comparison to the 10% annual average rate in the past three decades, but it could still maintain a 7-8% annual rate in the next 10 years. Still, any reading below 8% tomorrow will hit the market's risk sentiment. According to Barclays Capital forecasts, China’s June industrial production may exceed the 9.8% forecast, but this small positive result will be offset by the negative GPD surprise. In their view, the weaker-than expected GDP will hurt the Aussie. Chart. China's GDP (2003-2012) Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-12/18280-chinas-gdp-disappoint-markets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 13, 2012 Author Share Posted July 13, 2012 July 13: economy and currencies (2012-07-13) July 13: economy and currencies The markets were apathetic to China’s GDP release: everyone has already submitted to the fact that the growth pace of world’s fastest growing economy is slowing down. Even the consensus was dragged lower before the release from 7.9% to 7.7%. The data released today showed that Chinese GDP increased by 7.6% in Q2 after extending by 8.1% in the first 3 months of the year. Chinese industrial production and retail sales grew a bit less last month than in May, while the advance in fixed asset investment was slightly bigger. Investors are now much more preoccupied with what’s happening in Europe, particularly in Italy. The nation holds a 10-year bond auction. Overnight Moody's ratings agency downgraded Italy's government bond rating by two notches to Baa2 from A3. According to experts, Italy’s near-term economic outlook has worsened: weaker growth and higher unemployment creates risk of failure to meet fiscal consolidation targets. On Thursday, however, Italy raised 7.5 billion at a lower rate than previously, indicating improved investor confidence. US is to release PPI (forecast: a 0.5% decline in June), core PPI (forecast: a 0.3% growth in June) and preliminary UoM consumer sentiment index (expected to increase to 73.5 in July). Risky currencies are trading on the upside today, though they are set for the weekly declines due to the general pessimism. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares added 0.6% after falling by 0.2%. Analysts at Westpac underline that the growth momentum is still slowing down, though there may be more of a short squeeze in the currencies like Aussie in the near term. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-13/18283-july-13-economy-and-currencies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 13, 2012 Author Share Posted July 13, 2012 "Analysts: trading EUR/USD"(2011-07-13) Analysts: trading EUR/USD Analysts at Commerzbank expect EUR/USD to decline to $1.2053 (200-month MA) after having reached $1.2187. According to specialists, the descending triangle figure paves the ground for a decline to $1.1934 and to $1.1876 (2010 minimum). Resistance for the pair lies at $1.2287 (June 1 minimum), $1.2367 (200-day MA) and $1.2475 (triangle support line). Strategists at Aspen Trading Group are also bearish on EUR/USD and recommend going short at $1.2150 with a stop at $1.2300 and a target of $1.1850. In their view, this level is close to fair value of the pair.The specialists claim that being bearish on euro is the best risk-off trade these days. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-13/18285-analysts-trading-eurusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 16, 2012 Author Share Posted July 16, 2012 "Westpac: the Fed won’t signal easing "(2012-07-16) Westpac: the Fed won’t signal easing The Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is going to testify to the Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. Analysts at Westpac point out that Bernanke has said he is ready to take action as warranted, but so far he has been vague about what that means. If the Fed’s chief doesn’t signal that monetary stimulus is inevitable, the demand for riskier assets will fall. In this case the specialists recommend selling AUD/USD. On the other hand, if US central banker signals that there may be more easing, one should buy Aussie. Westpac thinks that the first outcome is more likely as the Fed may decide to wait for more reports on employment and, probably, Greek bond redemption before deciding on a course of action. As a result, the bank’s recommendation is to sell AUD/USD at $1.0250 targeting $1.0100 and stopping at $1.0330. Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-16/18299-westpac-fed-wont-signal-easing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 16, 2012 Author Share Posted July 16, 2012 "Key options expiring today"(2012-07-16) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD - $1.2175, $1.2200, $1.2250, $1.2300, $1.2325, $1.2350 USD/JPY - Y79.25, Y79.70, Y80.00 GBP/USD - $1.5500, $1.5490, $1.5450 AUD/USD - $1.0150, $1.0165, $1.0190, $1.0300 EUR/AUD - A$1.2000 Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-13/18288-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 17, 2012 Author Share Posted July 17, 2012 July 17: economic & forex news (2012-07-17) July 17: economic & forex news Ben Bernanke is once again the hero of the market’s expectations: investors expect to hear his hints on further monetary easing as he testifies to Congress today. It’s obvious that US economic recovery really is stumbling: data released yesterday showed that retail sales fell for a third month in June, contracting by 0.5%. The Fed’s chief is speaking in front of the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow. US dollar’s weakening versus the majority of its counterparts on the news. Also watch for US CPI data later today. Median forecast is that US CPI was unchanged last month from May when it declined by 0.3% (m/m). Annual inflation is seen sliding from 1.7% in May to 1.6% in June, below the Fed’s 2% medium-term target – another argument for more QE. EUR/USD trades on an upside for a third consecutive day ahead of the ZEW economic sentiment release. The release may show today that the index of German investor expectations slid to minus 20 this month (the lowest since January) from minus 16.9 in June. Moody’s rating agency downgraded 13 Italian banks tonight. The IMF has slightly lowered its outlook for global growth in latest report on the world economy. AUS/USD appreciates as the RBA meeting minutes released today made the new rate cuts less likely. The Australian policymakers reveal confidence in economy: national labor market looks stronger, China's economy wasn't slowing as much as previously anticipated and the overall mood in euro area seems to be better on the back of progress made by EU leaders late June. However, the euro zone’s debt woes still threaten the Australian economy. NZD/USD is up despite a CPI release (inflation in Q2 increased by 0.3%, what is below a forecasted 0.5% growth). The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) of shares advanced 0.6%. The overall market sentiment is positive ahead of Bernanke’s testimony: demand for USD and JPY vs. the other key currencies has dropped. USD/JPY strengthens after a three-day decline after touching the lowest since June 18 yesterday. According to Japan’s finance minister Jun Azumi, gains in the yen were “speculative” and officials will “take decisive action if needed.” Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-17/18309-july-17-economic-forex-news Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 18, 2012 Author Share Posted July 18, 2012 "Key options expiring today"(2012-07-18) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2200, $1.2250, $1.2300, $1.2400 GBP/USD: $1.5425 EUR/GBP: 0.7865 USD/CHF: 0.9900 AUD/USD: $1.0200 Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-18/18327-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 18, 2012 Author Share Posted July 18, 2012 "UBS: comments on forex majors "(2012-07-18) UBS: comments on forex majors EUR/USD: Euro won’t be able to sustain gains. The single currency will soon come under renewed negative pressure. As long as EUR/USD is trading under the key resistance of $1.2365, it’s vulnerable for a decline to $1.2163. GBP/USD: Resistance is at $1.5722, while support is found at $1.5554. USD/JPY: If the pair drops below 78.61, it will risk sliding to 77.99 ahead of 77.66. Resistance is at 79.39 and 80.10. USD/CHF: Resistance is at 0.9873. Above this level the greenback will head to 0.9951. Support lies at 0.9686. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-18/18329-citigroup-bullish-jpy-vs-eur-and-usd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 18, 2012 Author Share Posted July 18, 2012 "EUR/USD: comments & technical levels "(2012-07-18) EUR/USD: comments & technical levels The single currency had dropped from the levels in the $1.2270/2300 area to the day’s minimums around $1.2330. Euro fell on a media report that quoted German Chancellor Angela Merkel as saying she could not be sure the European project would work. The markets are turning risk-off. In addition, EUR finds itself under pressure after yesterday’s testimony of Ben Bernanke who refrained from discussing specific stimulus measures. The majority of the economists believe that today’s speech of the Fed’s Chairman will be quite similar to what we’ve heard on Tuesday. Support: $1.2188 (July 17 minimum), $1.2175 (July 16 minimum), $1.2163 (July 13 minimum) and 1.2151 (June 29, 2010, minimum). Resistance: $1.2317 (July 17 maximum), $1.2334 (July 10 maximum), $1.2365 (July 5 minimum) and $1.2400 (July 6 maximum). Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ: EUR/USD may slide to $1.2050 during a week from now as the hopes for more easing from the Fed will be gradually weakening. Resistance lies at $1.2450. Chart. H1 EUR/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-18/18337-eurusd-comments-technical-levels Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 18, 2012 Author Share Posted July 18, 2012 "GBP/USD: down on BoE minutes "(2012-07-18) GBP/USD: down on BoE minutes The bulls were pushing GBP/USD up for three consecutive days and the sterling nearly managed to overcome the resistance of the downward trend, existing since June. However, the pair returned to the channel today on the back of the important UK data releases and now trades close to the strong $1.5600 level. The BoE meeting minutes held on July 4-5 revealed the MPC voted unanimously in favor of maintaining the interest rate at 0.5%, while 7 members voted in favor of expanding the QE by a further £50 billion. According to analysts at ING, the increased support for additional QE means that it will possibly be expanded to £450 billion by the end of 2012. A new QE round is expected to weigh on the British currency. The unemployment rate in Britain unexpectedly declined to 8.1%. Commerzbank specialists expect GBP/USD’s growth to be limited on the upside by 55- and 200-day MA’s ($1.5685 and $1.5751). They forecast the pair to decline towards the $1.5407/1.5393 support area (June 8 and July 12 minimum). The next support lies at $1.5270/35 (2012 minimums). Chart. Daily GBP/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-18/18343-gbpusd-down-boe-minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 19, 2012 Author Share Posted July 19, 2012 July 19: economic & forex news (2012-07-19) July 19: economic & forex news The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) of shares added 1.5% yesterday. JPY rose against all but one of its 16 major peers amid concern no progress will be reached on the euro zone’s crisis, what will increase demand for a safe Japanese currency. USD weakens against the high-yielding currencies such as AUD, NZD and CAD. Mild weakness in the U.S. has been positive for risky currencies as the stimulus becomes more and more likely. Demand for risky assets was also supported as volatility for major currencies slid to the lowest since November 2007. GBP/USD strengthens on Thursday. Yesterday the pound dropped after the minutes of the BoE meeting this month showed the decision to keep its interest rate at a record low 0.5% was unanimous, while 7 members voted in favor of expanding the QE by a further 50 billion pounds. Although US dollar is broadly weakening, the single currency is even weaker. EUR/USD seems unable to overcome resistance at $1.2300. German lawmakers vote on a 100-billion euro bailout for Spanish banks (12:00 GMT). Angela Merkel will likely get the majority needed to for this piece of legislation to pass successfully. The sole euro-related data release is the publication of the region’s current account (08:00 GMT). The market’s attention will focus, though, on French and Spanish debt auctions (8:50-9:50 GMT). Euro is trading at record minimums vs. Aussie and kiwi and at more than 20-year minimums against loonie. In the US, as usual on Thursdays, watch for the jobless claims figures (12:30 GMT). In addition, there are 2 more important releases: existing home sales and Philly Fed manufacturing index (14:00 GMT). The Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke told lawmakers on Wednesday that it was "certainly possible" that the central bank could take new steps to support the economic recovery if the situation at the labor market doesn’t improve. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-19/18346-july-19-economic-forex-news Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 Der Spiegel: Greece may fail in September (2012-07-23) Der Spiegel: Greece may fail in September Der Spiegel reports citing unnamed senior EU sources in Brussels that the IMF wants to stop providing financial aid to Greece as soon as the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) starts functioning in September. According to Der Spiegel, Greece could become bankrupt as early as in autumn. It’s clear that Greek government won’t be able to bring down its debt load to about 120% of GDP by 2020. The Troika estimates show that that giving Greece more time to achieve its goals would cost additional 10-50 billion euro. However, many European economies are reluctant to pay for their troubled neighbor. In addition, countries like the Netherlands and Finland were providing as the IMF was involved. The Troika officials will soon go to Athens to see whether Greece is doing enough to comply with the terms of its second international bailout and merit receiving the next tranche of funds. Last week Greek politicians were unable to reach agreement pushed back talks on cutting budget by almost 12 billion euros ($14.6 billion). The ECB adds pressure: on Friday the central bank said that it will no longer accept Greek bonds as collateral in return for funding, at least until the positive report of the Troika. On Saturday German foreign minister Guido Westerwelle ruled out the possibility of relaxing the conditions of Athens’ second bailout. It seems that the EU and the IMF are finally ready to pull the plug on Greece. Euro zone’s nations think that the currency union would survive Greece’s exit. The ESM is meant to stop contagion in this case. German constitutional court delivers its verdict on the mechanism on September 12. Grece. The impending doom. Photo from minority-opinion.com Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-23/18391-der-spiegel-greece-may-fail-september Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 July 23: economic & forex news (2012-07-23) July 23: economic & forex news The markets are in the risk-off mode amid the concerns that the European debt crisis is escalating. Asian shares are down. The greenback and Japanese yen have strengthened vs. the majority of their counterparts as the possibility of Greece’s leaving the euro area is getting higher and higher. EUR/USD opened the week with almost 40-pip gap down touching fresh 2-year minimum at $1.2106. EUR/JPY hit 11-month minimum at 94.60 yen. The sole data release today in Europe is the euro zone’s consumer confidence published at 14:00 GMT. According to the forecasts, the index will remain close to 3-month low. As for the debt auctions, Germany will offer short-term debt 06:00 GMT and France – at 10:50 GMT. Investors are more worried about tomorrow as Spain will auction 3- and 6-month bills. Spanish 10-year yields stay at the record maximums, above the critical level of 7%. Note that demand for US dollar as everyone awaits US Q2 GDP figures on Friday. Economists expect American economy to add only 1.5% (q/q), showing the slowest growth pace since June 2011. Weak data will increase the odds of QE3, dollar-negative factor. Taking into account such prospects, yen may by the best performer in the coming months. Elsewhere, Australian PPI rose by 0.5% in Q2 (vs. +0.3% expected). Japanese monetary authorities do their usual comments about their readiness to act with easing, but nothing more. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-23/18393-july-23-economic-forex-news Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 CFTC trader positioning data (2012-07-23) CFTC trader positioning data The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday, July 20 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that on a week ended July 17: The US dollar long positions increased to $25.8 billion on July 17 from a total long position of $24.58 billion on July 10, while the net short euro positions rose to 167.2K contracts from the previous week’s total of 166K net short contracts. Investors increased bets the Japanese currency will strengthen: the net long yen positions edged higher to 11.1K contracts following a total of 8.9K net long contracts the previous week. The British pound is still unpopular among the speculators: the net short pound positions declined by 1.3% this week. The net short Swiss franc positions increased to 23K contracts following 17.5K net short contracts the previous week. Investors continued to bet that the Australian and New Zealand dollars will rise, with net long positions totaling $1.4 billion and $554 million, respectively. But the market changed its view on the Canadian dollar, now expecting the currency to fall, with a net $119 million wagered. It’s necessary to note that the figures cited above are always a week old at the time of their release. Never the less, CFTC data gives a good oversight into how the market is positioned and if/how these positions are being unwound. Although the CME speculators represent a small fraction of trading in the currency markets, their trades are widely seen as typical of hedge fund investors' currency movements. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-05/16791-cftc-trader-positioning-data Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 24, 2012 Author Share Posted July 24, 2012 July 24: economy and currencies (2012-07-24) July 24: economy and currencies EUR/USD consolidated below Friday’s minimum at $1.2144. Yesterday the pair renewed 2-year minimum at $1.2065 on concerns about Greece and Spain. Moody’s Investors Service changed credit outlook for Germany and the Netherlands to negative. There’s a bunch of PMIs released in Europe today. At the same time, the market’s attention will likely remain focused on Spain which will offer 3- and 6-month bills. Yesterday Spanish 10-year yields rose to the records of 7.5%. The Netherlands will sell today debt maturing in 2014 and 2028. Troika officials arrive in Athens today amid doubts that Greece will meet commitments required for bailout funding. EUR/JPY remains close to 11-year minimum at 94.23 hit on Monday. Aussie, kiwi and loonie gain on Tuesday after a two-day drop. Risk sentiment improved after HSBC flash manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 in July from 48.2, bolstering the export prospects for the South Pacific nations. However, the demand on the high-yielding currencies is still limited ahead of the Spanish auction and euro area PMIs. In a speech today the RBA Governor Glenn Stevens sought to ease concern his nation is vulnerable to shocks from China, a domestic housing slump and global financial stress, saying it remains a “lucky country” with a favorable outlook. Demand for Aussie and kiwi is supported against the yen amid speculation the BoJ will act to weaken the nation’s currency. Finance Minister Azumi said the yen’s gain is one- sided and doesn’t reflect economic fundamentals. USD/JPY declines for a fifth consecutive day. British pound also strengthens on Tuesday, driven by the market sentiment. Events to watch: Euro area: PMIs. A gauge for manufacturing in the currency bloc is estimated to be at 45.3 in July. That’s below the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction and compares with a reading of 45.1 last month. Canada: Retail sales. Data release may cheer the investors up a little bit: according to forecasts, core retail sales increased by 0.2% m/m in May vs. a decline by 0.3% in April, while retail sales - to grow by 0.3% vs. a previous 0.5% drop. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-24/18413-july-24-economy-and-currencies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 24, 2012 Author Share Posted July 24, 2012 "EUR/USD: technical & fundamental update"(2012-07-24) EUR/USD: technical & fundamental update Fundamental news: Spain sold 1.63 billion euro of 3-month bills and 1.42 billion euro of 6-month bills – that’s just over 3-billion target. The yields were slightly higher. Euro zone flash PMIs for July were softer than expected. The region’s manufacturing PMI fell to the lowest level since June 2009. Support: $1.2065 (yesterday’s minimum), $1.2045 (June 11, 2010, minimum), $1.2028 (April 3, 2006, minimum), $1.2008 (June 8, 2010, maximum), $1.1972/91 (trend line support connecting the November 2005 minimum at $1.1635 and June 2010 minimum at $1.1876) and $1.1876 (June 7, 2010, minimum). Resistance: $1.2144 (Friday’s minimum), $1.2162 (July 13 minimum), $1.2175 (July 16 minimum), $1.2250 (down channel), $1.2325 (last week’s maximum). Commerzbank: EUR/USD will slide to $1.2053 (200-month moving average) and consolidate there for some time before sliding to $1.1934 (downside measured target from the symmetrical triangle). Chart. H1 EUR/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-24/18417-eurusd-technical-fundamental-update Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 24, 2012 Author Share Posted July 24, 2012 "GBP/USD: technical comments"(2012-07-24) GBP/USD: technical comments On Tuesday GBP/USD consolidates at $1.5500 level after an intense drop on Friday and Monday. As can be seen from the daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways since June after trading in a bearish channel in May. The pair trades close to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from a May decline and far below the 55-, 100- and 200-day MAs. On the H4 chart MAs met at $1.5584, creating a strong resistance. Support: $1.5486 (July 23 minimum); $1.5460 (July 6 minimum); $1.5400 (July minimums); $1.5392 (July 12 minimum); $1.5320 (June 5 minimum); $1.5267 (June 1 minimum); $1.5233 (2012 minimum). Resistance: $1.5584 (MAs on the H4 chart); $1.5596 (50-day MA); $1.5626 (July 23 maximum); $1.5661 (38.2% Fib. retracement); $1.5736 (July 19 maximum), $1.5747 (200-day MA), $1.5777/88 (June 20 maximum, 50% Fib. retracement and a 100-day MA). In our view, a close below $1.5392 (July 12 minimum) could trigger a drop to $1.5267/33 (June and 2012 minimums). If the pair manages to overcome a strong resistance at $1.5584 (MAs on the H4 chart), an increase to $1.5746/88 resistance area will become possible. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-24/18420-gbpusd-technical-comments Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 24, 2012 Author Share Posted July 24, 2012 "Analysts on BOJ intervention risk "(2012-07-24) Analysts on BOJ intervention risk Economists argue that the Bank of Japan might want to avoid USD/JPY returning to the range of 76-78 yen within which it was trading in the second half of 2011. Japanese officials have made a lot of comments speaking about their readiness to act counter volatile moves in the national currency. Yet, as it always is with Japan, it’s very difficult to judge the real intentions of the policymakers. Here’s what the analysts think. Barclays Capital: “We see the increased chance of JPY selling intervention by the Japanese authorities, or at least verbal intervention with a tougher tone below 78 yen.” MIG Bank: The BOJ may intervene if USD/JPY slides below 77.65. Citibank: The market has become very used to such threats of “decisive steps”. Our basis view is that intervention may not come until the dollar falls below 75 yen. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-24/18422-analysts-boj-intervention-risk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 24, 2012 Author Share Posted July 24, 2012 "Analysts on BOJ intervention risk "(2012-07-24) GBP/USD ahead of UK GDP Photo: Reuters On Wednesday UK will release preliminary Q2 GDP figures. Data are expected to confirm the fears that the UK still remains in recession: according to consensus forecast, British economy may have fallen by 0.2% (q/q). This would be the third successive quarterly fall, and would mean that GDP is lower now than it was in the third quarter of 2010 and 3.9% below its pre-recession peak. Chart. UK GPP (2001-2012) Source: Forex Factory According to analysts at Commerzbank, the figures have already been priced in, so the market is not likely to move dramatically. Strategists expect GBP/USD to test $1.53 in the next 2-3 weeks. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-24/18425-gbpusd-ahead-uk-gdp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 July 26: economy & currencies (2012-07-26) July 26: economy & currencies EUR/USD is consolidating in the $1.2120/65 area after yesterday’s jerk up as the ECB’s Nowotny suggested the ESM might get a banking license. The market’s attention will be focused on Mario Draghi’s speech in a panel discussion in London along with the Bank of England’s governor King – investors will look for Draghi’s reaction on Nowotny’s comments. Germany Gfk сonsumer сonfidence slightly rose from 5.8 in June to 5.9 in July, while the nation’s import prices declined in June by1.5% (vs. –o.6% expected). The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) of stocks advanced 0.4%, capping four days of decline. The high-yielding currencies strengthen on the back of the improved risk appetite and as the U.S. data on Friday may show growth slowed in the world’s largest economy. NZD/USD rose after the RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard left benchmark interest rates on hold at 2.50% and said the economy should grow “modestly.” AUD/USD strengthens for a second consecutive days and trades above $1.3000, while USD/JPY demonstrates a modest growth after the safe Japanese currency strengthened for 6 consecutive days. There are plenty of data released today: EU M3 and Italian retail sales at 08:00 GMT, US core durable goods and unemployment claims at 12:30 GMT, and US pending home sales at 14:00 GMT. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-26/18459-july-26-economy-currencies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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