internationallove Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 "EUR is up on Greek election results"(2012-06-18) EUR is up on Greek election results Greek elections finally came and went. The results of the vote give hope that the nation’s policymakers will now be able to act efficiently to get the country out of the crisis. As almost all votes are counted, the conservative New Democracy party will get 129 seats in the 300-seat parliament and its potential ally socialist Pasok party 33 seats. This is quite enough to ensure a workable majority and form a coalition government which will put all its efforts to keep Greece in the euro area and renegotiate the terms of the bailout. The latter will be vital as the austerity program is pushing the nation deeper in recession. The talks of on forming a government will likely start today. The left forces opposing the bailout got in the minority with the total 121 seats, including 71 to be occupied by the Radical Left Coalition’s (Syriza) deputies. Photo Nikolas Giakoumidis/AP EUR/USD has another week of opening with a gap on the upside at $1.2693, above 38.2% retracement of the May decline. Barclays Capital: “We continue to think the pressure on euro will be lower as weak growth will imply continued monetary policy easing by the ECB in the future. There has been some knee-jerk buying, which may have more to go. We would prefer to fade the rally than buying into it.” Westpac: EUR/USD will rise to $1.2825/50 (May 21 maximum), but the potential for further advance isn’t high. The specialists note that Germany won’t easily agree to change the bailout conditions. Standard Chartered: “The result has probably bought some time for Spain and Italy. But questions over the Spanish banking-sector bailout will persist, with clarification this week on how much will be requested.” Photo Nikolas Giakoumidis/AP Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-18/18001-eur-greek-election-results Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 "G20 leaders meet in Mexico"(2012-06-15) G20 leaders meet in Mexico A two-day G20 summit started in Los Cabos, Mexico on Monday. It should come as no surprise that the European issues are on the top of the agenda: the stabilization of the global economy and the reinforcement of the financial system. The pro-bailout choice of Greek voters has brought a sign of relief to the markets. However, the effect is not expected to be long-lasting: Spain and Italy moved into the limelight. The G-20 countries are expected to confirm the IMF's planned $430 billion firewall to help the IMF to protect the indebted countries. The IMF chief Christine Lagarde, however, may insist on extending the firewall straight to $500 billion. The G20 leaders are also to give high priority to the problem of the global food price spikes and to work out mechanisms for their rapid stabilization. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-18/18005-g20-leaders-meet-mexico Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 20, 2012 Author Share Posted June 20, 2012 Wednesday, June 20: economy and currencies (2012-06-20) Wednesday, June 20: economy and currencies On Wednesday EUR/USD trades in the $1.2680 area. The factors, influencing the cross, are controversial: on the one hand, the greenback remains under pressure ahead of the FOMC meeting held today (Bloomberg survey of 64 economists shows 37 expect the Fed to announce an extension of Operation Twist today). Greece is finally close to forming a coalition: according to Pasok leader Evangelos Venizelos, a new government could be ready by midday today. The G20 statement calls Europe for integration and doesn’t mention any easing measures. On the other hand, the euro’s growth has many constraints: the euro zone’s problems are here to stay, investors remain concerned about Spain’s and Italy’s borrowing costs. USD/JPY continues a downward movement today. Japan’s trade deficit in May increased to 907B compared with the 544B yen deficit expected (second-worst since 2009), even though the exports improved. The minutes of the May 22-23 meeting were released early Wednesday: a few BoJ members said the regulator must be ready to act if risks materialize from Europe. According to BoJ’s Governor Masaaki Shirakawa, the economy starts to pick up moderately. The MSCI Asia Pacific (MXAP) Index gained 1.1% on Wednesday. The Aussie strengthens for the fifth consecutive day despite the negative data releases (CB Leading Index, Housing Starts). New Zealand and Canadian dollar, however, demonstrate a downward movement. NZD current account deficit declined in Q1, but was still bigger than forecasted. Events to watch today: • Great Britain: claimant count change, MPC meeting minutes, unemployment rate • US: FOMC meeting, crude oil inventories Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-20/18023-wednesday-june-20-economy-and-currencies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 20, 2012 Author Share Posted June 20, 2012 "Barclays Capital: bearish on EUR/CAD"(2012-06-20) Barclays Capital: bearish on EUR/CAD Analysts at Barclays Capital recommend selling the euro against the Canadian dollar ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday where the Fed is likely to extend the Operation Twist program. Despite the fact that the dovish FOMC statement will weaken the greenback and the “neighboring” currencies, analysts expect the loonie to grow vs. the common currency due to its high-beta properties. A switch to the Canadian dollar will help to avoid direct losses, connected with the Fed’s easing measures. Specialists believe that the global risk sentiment is likely to remain high in the medium term on the back of the positive outcome of the Greek elections and the seeming readiness of the central banks to support the national economies. The ECB is expected to cut rates by 50 b.p., while the Bank of England – to extend the asset purchases program by 50 billion pounds in July. The demand for high-yield currencies, therefore, is likely to edge up, even if the situation in the euro zone worsens. Chart. Daily EUR/CAD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-20/18025-barclays-capital-bearish-eurcad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 20, 2012 Author Share Posted June 20, 2012 "GBP weakens on UK data"(2012-06-20) GBP weakens on UK data The sterling weakens against the euro on the back of a bunch of negative data released in UK on Wednesday. The cable, however, goes up on the prospects of the Fed’s policy easing. Minutes of the Bank of England’s June 6-7 meeting showed 4 of 9 MPC members voted for the expansion of the bond purchase program. Therefore, the likeliness of the additional policy easing increased sharply. Moreover, jobless-benefit claims rocketed to 8.1K in May after a drop of 12.8K in April (forecast – a 3.1K decline), while unemployment rate remained unchanged at 8.2%. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Chart. Daily EUR/GBP Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-20/18027-gbp-weakens-uk-data Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 20, 2012 Author Share Posted June 20, 2012 "Greece: new government, old problems"(2012-06-20) Greece: new government, old problems According to Pasok leader Evangelos Venizelos, three Greek political parties finally managed to form a parliamentary coalition. In the new government the right-centered New Democracy Party, the winner of the June 17 election, will hold 129 seats, the socialist Pasok – 33 seats and the Democratic Left – 17 seats. All in all, they will control 179 seats in the 300-member parliament. Antonis Samaras, leader of the New Democracy, will become a prime-minister. The opposition radical-left Syriza Party (71 seat) refused to join the pro-bailout government. Analysts at Wells Fargo point that the euro zone’s crisis is far from over. Greece made a step towards the partnership with the EU and the IMF, but it still remains unclear if the country manages to fulfill conditions set by its lenders. Citigroup: Despite the election results the Greek exit possibility still remains high (50-75% in a 18-month period). The growing success of the leftist Syriza Party signals major challenges ahead. Moreover, many economists note the Greek problems pales in comparison to the debt pit in which Spain slides. Antonis Samaras, the conservative New Democracy leader Photograph: Panagiotis Tzamaros/AFP/Getty Images Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-20/18032-greece-new-government-old-problems Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Monday, June 25: economy and currencies (2012-06-25) Monday, June 25: economy and currencies EUR/USD weakens on Monday ahead of the Italy’s and Spain’s debt auctions scheduled on Tuesday. Spain is to sell 3- and 6-month bills tomorrow, while Italy will auction inflation-linked securities maturing in 2016 and 2026, as well as up to 3 billion euro in zero-coupon bonds. At the end of the last week Spain’s bond yields declined to 6.38% after overcoming the critical 7% level. Investors fear that the euro zone’s crisis will contaminate bigger economies. The EU leaders meeting in Brussels on June 28-29 is likely to become one of the most important events of the week: politicians will discuss measures towards a regional banking union, tight fiscal integration and the possibility of a debt redemption. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) of shares slid 0.3%: the market switched into a risk-off mode with an increased demand for safe-havens. AUD/USD and NZD/USD fell on speculation the euro zone’s borrowing costs will continue to grow. USD/JPY demonstrates a downward movement after three days of a consecutive growth. Event to watch today: the US new home sales in May are expected to climb to 347K from 343K in April. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-25/18064-monday-june-25-economy-and-currencies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 "Key options expiring today"(2012-06-25) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2500, $1.2580, $1.2650, $1.2700; USD/JPY: 79.00, 79.50, 80.25, 80.35, 80.50; GBP/USD: $1.5600, $1.5800; AUD/USD: $0.9850, $0.9965, $1.0030, $1.0200; USD/CAD: 1.0110. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-25/18065-key-options-expiring-today` Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 "Key options expiring today"(2012-06-26) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2450, $1.2500, $1.2525, $1.2675; USD/JPY: 79.25, 79.50, 80.00, 80.50; GBP/USD: 1.5600, 1.5650; AUD/USD: $0.9975, $1.0000, $1.0050, $1.0200; USD/CHF: 0.9650. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-26/18074-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 "Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD "(2012-06-26) Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD Technical analysts at Commerzbank expect the single currency to consolidate versus the greenback in the near term. In the longer run, however, the outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish. The specialists underline that euro failed to make a sustainable break above $1.2746, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire move seen this year, so its short uptrend is over. According to the bank, EUR/USD will slide below $1.2435 (June 8 minimum) to $1.2288 (June 1minimum). Commerzbank says that resistance for the pair lies at $1.2583/1.2610 (June 22 and 13 maximums) and $1.2746. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-26/18077-commerzbank-comments-eurusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 "Westpac: trading USD/JPY this week "(2012-06-26) Westpac: trading USD/JPY this week Japan will release CPI report on Thursday. According to consensus forecast, the nation’s core CPI may have risen by only 0.1% y/y in May or even stayed flat compared with the 0.2% y/y increase in April. Tokyo core CPI has been posting negative readings since the short respite last summer. Analysts at Westpac claim that if core CPI comes in stronger than expected, the Bank of Japan will leave policy unchanged. In this case it would be wise to sell USD/JPY. However, if consumer prices are lower than expected, one should do quite the opposite thing as the possibility of more easing from the BOJ will increase and yen will get under bearish pressure. Since the specialists think that the second outcome is more likely, they recommend buying the greenback on the upside breakout at 80.50 stopping at 79.70 and targeting 83.00. According to Westpac, “80.50-80.60 area is the top of a trend line, and if we break, it will break big.” Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-26/18084-westpac-trading-usdjpy-week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 "USD/CAD: technical comments"(2012-06-26) USD/CAD: technical comments The USD/CAD pair trades sideways for a third consecutive day consolidating between 1.0250 and 1.0300. Today the greenback's trading on the downside. This week the Canadian dollar will depend on the news from euro zone and on the overall market sentiment, which are expected to be negative. In a short term analysts at BMO Capital forecast the cross to go up and to trade in a range of C$1.0250-C$1.0400. It makes sense to sell the Canadian dollar at current levels, targeting at C$1.0400 and with a stop at C$1.0200. On the other hand, the US modest recovery and the stable domestic situation may push the Canadian dollar up. On Friday GDP and raw materials price index releases may support the CAD – the forecasts are rather positive. If the pair breaks below the C$1.0240 support, a further decline to C$1.0200 and C$1.0160 will become likely. Support: 1.0240 (June 22 minimum); 1.0200 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement from a May rally); 1.0160 (June 20 minimum); 1.0123 (50% Fibonacci retracement); 1.0100 (psychological level). Resistance: 1.0292 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement); 1.0320 (June 25 maximum); 1.0382 (June 6 maximum); 1.0400 (psychological level); 1.0440/45 (June1, 4 maximum). Chart. H4 USD/CAD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-26/18088-usdcad-technical-comments Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 "MIG Bank: trading EUR/JPY"(2012-06-26) MIG Bank: trading EUR/JPY Currency analysts at MIG Bank note that EUR/JPY tried to recover from 95.56 (June 1 minimum). The specialists say that the individual outlook for the USD/JPY and EUR/USD shows that the prospects for EUR/JPY are negative. If the pair breaks below 98.54, then the levels around 100.95 will be regarded as lower maximums. According to the bank, it will be possible to say that the major minimum has been formed only if euro rises above 102.13 (May 22 maximum). In such case the single currency will get chance to rise to 104.62 (100-day MA) retracing decline from 111.43 (March 21 maximum). The bank proposed the following trading strategy: place sell limit at 100.05 targeting 99.05/95.50/90.00 and stopping at 101.05. Chart. Daily EUR/JPY Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-26/18090-mig-bank-trading-eurjpy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 June 27: economy and currencies (2012-06-27) June 27: economy and currencies The market’s in the uncertainty stalemate ahead of EU summit on June 28-29. Investors seem very cautious and are reluctant to make any wagers. Commodity currencies are trading on the downside. Yesterday GBP/USD managed to rise above Friday’s maximums to print daily highs at $1.5650, but failed to sustain gains above and now trades below it. Despite the political issues in Japan yen will be likely driven by the global risk sentiment these days. EUR/JPY is staying close to the opening price of 99.30 after hitting yesterday 2-week minimum at 98.74 yen. USD/JPY edged a bit higher after 2 days of declines staying in the 79.55 area, above support at 78.60. Equities in Asia managed to hold their ground: Japan’s Nikkei Stock, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 and South Korea’s Kospi rose by 0.46%, 0.74% and 0.06% respectively. As for EUR/USD, it’s just below magnetic $1.2500 level. Yields on Spanish and Italian bonds rose at short-term debt auctions on Tuesday, reflecting investors’ doubts about the ability of the EU leaders to come up with any breakthrough agreements on a forthcoming summit. The market needs rapid actions, but even if some key decisions will be made on a summit, their implementation takes time. European Council President Herman Van Rompuy on Tuesday released a report on a closer fiscal and banking union, planning a euro zone treasury that would issue common debt in the medium term. Meanwhile, the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, told German law makers yesterday that there would be no shared liability for debt "in her lifetime". With regard to Merkel’s inflexibility, Egan Jones, the small UK-based rating agency, downgraded Germany from AA- to A+ with negative outlook. Greece also should be kept in mind: Greek center of Planning and Economic Research (KEPE) expects the national economy to contract by 9.14% in Q3. As a result, some analysts claim that what we see today may be calm before the storm, so be prepared and don’t say we didn’t warn you. Events to watch today: Germany: Preliminary CPI in June is forecasted to remain unchanged after a 0.2% decline in May. US: A bunch of positive US data is expected to be released. Core durable goods orders, leading indicator of production, are expected to go up in May by 1.0% m/m compared with a 0.9% decline in April, what will be a positive sign for the economy. Durable goods orders (including transportation items) may increase by 0.5% after a remaining flat in the previous month. Pending home sales in May are to increase by 1.3% m/m vs. a 5.5% drop in April. However, the confidence in the stability of the US housing market is still weak. Japan: Retail sales in May are likely to increase by 3.1% y/y after a 5.7% growth in April. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-27/18092-june-27-economy-and-currencies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Zerohedge: EUR/USD and CB balance sheets (2012-06-27) Zerohedge: EUR/USD and CB balance sheets Analysts at Zerohedge, US financial blog, point out an interesting thing about EUR/USD. The European Central Bank announced yesterday that in the past week its balance sheet increased by 31 billion euro to a new all time record maximum of 3.058 trillion euro due to the increase in the main refinancing operations (MRO). The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, on the other hand, continues to be flat, or is even modestly declining. The authors of the blog claim that EUR/USD moves have been based upon balance sheet correlation. However, in recent months this trend got broken as the markets were on the constant guard of more QE from the Fed. Now the fair value of the pair, according to this method, is at $1.1600. Look to the chart below which is the perfect illustration of this relationship. Zerohedge points out that there are 2 possible scenarios here. 1. If the Fed keeps refraining from further stimulus and the ECB will do all the unsterilized intervention, EUR/USD will continue its way down. 2. If the Fed announces large-scale asset purchases, EUR/USD will surge by at least 400 pips. “Place your bets,” the bloggers say. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-27/18...-balance-sheets" target="_blank">http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-27/18...-balance-sheets</a> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 "Japanese tax hike: pro et contra "(2012-06-27) Japanese tax hike: pro et contra Japan's lower house has voted to approve doubling the country's consumption tax to 10% over three years. The legislation now goes to the opposition-dominated upper chamber, where it is expected to pass during the current session of parliament ending September. However, the decision was not unanimous: 363 lawmakers voted in favor, while 96 - against. Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda championed the controversial bill regardless of the objections from his own party. In his view, the tax hike is needed to reduce the snowballing budget deficit (forecasted to reach 214% of GDP in 2012). Japan’s government says that the increase will generate $170 billion a year for the budget. Opponents believe the hike is premature and will weaken the economy further because it will limit the consumption. Analysts at UBS fear that the first tax hike in 2014 could bring the economic recovery after the last year’s earthquake and tsunami to the deadlock. According to the Cabinet Office’s Economic and Social Research Institute, a 1% point increase in the tax will cut GDP growth by 0.32% a year after. In this case a strong economic stimulus will be required to support the rebounding economy. In a short-term, the international investors take the “wait-and-see” approach, because they have already burned many times by trying to trade USD/JPY on Japan’s political events. Specialists at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation also don’t expect the Japan’s fiscal policy and the internal political differences to be the core factors to specify the yen's direction. Yoshihiko Noda, Prime Minister of Japan, a member of the Democratic Party of Japan Photo: Franck Robichon/EPA Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-27/18095-japanese-tax-hike-pro-et-contra Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 "Commerzbank: bearish view on NZD"(2012-06-27) Commerzbank: bearish view on NZD Technical analysts at Commerzbank are bearish on New Zealand’s dollar versus the greenback. In their view, NZD/USD will breach support of $0.7844 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of this year’s decline) and decline to $0.7774 (January 6 minimum), $0.7736 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s advance in June) and $0.7677/70 (May 22 maximum and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement). The long-term negative targets are $0.7469/0.7371 (October, November and December minimums) and $0.7186 (200-week MA) and $0.7116 (2011 minimum) According to the bank, the outlook for the pair will remain bearish as long as it’s trading below $0.8017 (last week’s maximum). Key resistance for the pair lies at $0.8059/85 (March and April lows, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 4-month resistance line). Chart. Daily NZD/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-27/18102-commerzbank-bearish-view-nzd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 "Commerzbank: bearish view on NZD"(2012-06-27) Commerzbank: bearish view on NZD Technical analysts at Commerzbank are bearish on New Zealand’s dollar versus the greenback. In their view, NZD/USD will breach support of $0.7844 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of this year’s decline) and decline to $0.7774 (January 6 minimum), $0.7736 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s advance in June) and $0.7677/70 (May 22 maximum and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement). The long-term negative targets are $0.7469/0.7371 (October, November and December minimums) and $0.7186 (200-week MA) and $0.7116 (2011 minimum) According to the bank, the outlook for the pair will remain bearish as long as it’s trading below $0.8017 (last week’s maximum). Key resistance for the pair lies at $0.8059/85 (March and April lows, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 4-month resistance line). Chart. Daily NZD/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-27/18102-commerzbank-bearish-view-nzd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 "Commerzbank: bearish view on NZD"(2012-06-27) Commerzbank: bearish view on NZD Technical analysts at Commerzbank are bearish on New Zealand’s dollar versus the greenback. In their view, NZD/USD will breach support of $0.7844 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of this year’s decline) and decline to $0.7774 (January 6 minimum), $0.7736 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s advance in June) and $0.7677/70 (May 22 maximum and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement). The long-term negative targets are $0.7469/0.7371 (October, November and December minimums) and $0.7186 (200-week MA) and $0.7116 (2011 minimum) According to the bank, the outlook for the pair will remain bearish as long as it’s trading below $0.8017 (last week’s maximum). Key resistance for the pair lies at $0.8059/85 (March and April lows, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 4-month resistance line). Chart. Daily NZD/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-27/18102-commerzbank-bearish-view-nzd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 "Commerzbank: bearish view on NZD"(2012-06-27) Commerzbank: bearish view on NZD Technical analysts at Commerzbank are bearish on New Zealand’s dollar versus the greenback. In their view, NZD/USD will breach support of $0.7844 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of this year’s decline) and decline to $0.7774 (January 6 minimum), $0.7736 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s advance in June) and $0.7677/70 (May 22 maximum and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement). The long-term negative targets are $0.7469/0.7371 (October, November and December minimums) and $0.7186 (200-week MA) and $0.7116 (2011 minimum) According to the bank, the outlook for the pair will remain bearish as long as it’s trading below $0.8017 (last week’s maximum). Key resistance for the pair lies at $0.8059/85 (March and April lows, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 4-month resistance line). Chart. Daily NZD/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-27/18102-commerzbank-bearish-view-nzd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 June 28: economy and currencies (2012-06-28) June 28: economy and currencies The most expected event on Thursday is the EU leaders meeting in Brussels where the key euro zone’s problems are to be discussed. EUR/USD declines for a fourth consecutive day ahead of the Italian bond auction and the EU summit. Most investors say that the widely discussed banking union is premature: nations are not ready to share debt. GBP/USD plunges on low EU summit expectations. Early Thursday the risky currencies demonstrated growth, but now are mostly in the red. Kiwi falls on the data that the NBNZ Business Confidence index halved in June, the Aussie and the loonie drop. USD/JPY goes down on Japan’s better than expected retail sales data. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares climbed 1.1% after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.9% on Wednesday. Events to watch: Europe: EU Economic Summit will be the first time European leaders meet since the Greek parliamentary elections on June 17. The nation’s new Prime Minister Antonis Samaras who pledged to seek relief from austerity measures imposed on the country while keeping the bailout funds flowing as he has recently undergone surgery to repair a detached retina. Billionaire investor George Soros warns that if the fiscal disagreements aren’t resolved in the next 3 days, the summit could turn out to be a fiasco. In addition, Italy will try to sell 10-year government bonds. The results of the auction will have an extremely strong effect on the market’s sentiment. The yields will be used as a gauge of the market’s confidence of the European policymakers’ resolve to solve the crisis. Britain: The final British GDP figures will likely confirm that the nation’s economy has fallen into recession declining by 0.3% q/q in the first 3 months of 2012 after losing 0.3% in Q4 2011. Although the markets have already priced in the grim news, the release will once again remind investors about UK economic weakness and make them think that the Bank of England will ultimately have to expand its Asset Purchase Program. US: The United States also release the final Q1 GDP readings: in May US economic growth in the first quarter was revised down from 2.2% q/q to 1.9%. No further revision is expected this time, so negative surprise would weight on the greenback. Unemployment claims – the indicator closely watched every week – is seen declining slightly from 387K to 385K. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-28/18110-june-28-economy-and-currencies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 "RBS turned bearish on AUD/USD "(2012-06-28) RBS turned bearish on AUD/USD Analysts at RBS recommend selling Australian dollar versus its US counterpart stopping at $1.0250 (200-day MA) and targeting $0.9579 (2012 minimum). The specialists have finally given up optimism on Aussie. Support: $1.0029 (50-day MA); $0.9924 (June 14 minimum, 38.2% Fibo retracement of the decline October to November); $0.9881 (23.6% Fibo retracement of the decline from February to June); $0.9794/9803 (May 18 minimum, June 5 maximum). Resistance $1.0141 (June 6 maximum); $1.0208/15 (50% Fibo retracement of the decline from October to November and the slide from February to June). Chart. Daily AUD/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-28/18112-rbs-turned-bearish-audusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 "Long-term forecasts for CAD"(2012-06-28) Long-term forecasts for CAD Analysts at Capital Economics believe that the greenback will keep strengthening versus its Canadian counterpart this year to 1.0870 by the end of 2012 and to 1.1630 in 2013. The specialists expect loonie to weaken due to declining commodity prices and no Bank of Canada’s interest rate hike this year. Brent crude oil has so far tested the levels below $90 a barrel and Capital Economics forecasts it to end the year at $85 a barrel, while “business investment prospects already look less sure than a month ago.” In addition, the recent revision to mortgage rules in Canada is likely to curb housing activity which accounts for a considerable share of the nation’s GDP. For loonie downside risks outweigh the upside risks, say the analysts. Specialists at Scotiabank, however, aren’t that bearish on loonie. On the other hand, they believe that USD/CAD will finish 2012 at parity and then hover there in 2013. According to the bank, the expectations of the BOC rate hikes may return later in the year if global economic sentiment improves. Among other factors positive for CAD Scotia names China’s monetary stimulus efforts, which may prop up commodity prices by the end of the year, and weakening US inflation, which could boost spending, lifting Canadian exports. Chart. Weekly USD/CAD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-28/18114-long-term-forecasts-cad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 "All eyes are on German parliament "(2012-06-29) All eyes are on German parliament Although there are still issues of confrontation among the European policymakers including joint debt, euro bonds, the region’s policymakers have managed to show their resolve in combating the debt crisis. All eyes are now on the parliamentary vote in Germany tonight on whether to ratify the ESM Treaty and the Fiscal Compact Treaty. Germany was forced to give up and allow easing conditions on Spanish banks’ rescue and potential Italian bailout. The Chancellor Angela Merkel said after that she was “very satisfied that we took good decisions on growth.” Now she will have to explain the deal to German lawmakers. The debate will begin at 15:00 GMT. The demand for safer assets will get some support on the news. Photo: German Bundestag/Müller Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-29/18118-all-eyes-are-german-parliament Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 "EU summit: analysts aren’t entirely happy "(2012-06-29) EU summit: analysts aren’t entirely happy All the talk is about EU summit. Here are the analysts’ comments on the issue. UBS: the innovation of an “effective single supervisory mechanism” and the ESM being able to recapitalize banks directly “will likely come far too late to be of immediate use during the recapitalization of the Spanish banking system.” “Any funding provided to recapitalize Spanish banks over the coming months is still very likely to inflate the Spanish sovereign debt levels.” Lloyds Bank: “It is one step on a very long road. But we don't have any details, and arguably the detail is where the risk lies, because the market will start to pick holes in it as we've seen previously.” BOTMUFJ: among questions the market will ask is whether the firepower available to the rescue funds will be enough to stabilize the 2.5 trillion euro Spanish and Italian bond markets, and how easy will it be to agree on the banking supervisory mechanism. “Our initial view is this deal is no game-changer, and any EUR/USD rally will simply offer attractive levels to sell”. Westpac: “Definitely some good news for risk markets here, though it is not the ‘big bazooka’.” Image from todayheads.com Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-29/18119-eu-summit-analysts-arent-entirely-happy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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