internationallove Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 "GBP enjoys demand vs. EUR and USD"(2012-05-15) GBP enjoys demand vs. EUR and USD British pound steadily strengthens against the euro (12% growth since June 2011, new surge in April 2012) and the greenback (5.5% growth since January 2012). What are the reasons for the sterling’s strong performance versus its major peers? Pound’s status of a “safe haven” tends to attract investors on the back of a total economic and political instability in the euro zone. What is more, speculations about a further QE started to fade after the inflation exceeded the expectations (CPI in March reached 3.5% after previous print 3.4%; annual PPI output in April exceeded estimates of 2.9 % by coming in at 3.3%). According to the BoE governor King, the inflation is still too high. Moreover, the UK economy attracts foreign investors as the world’s the second largest market for M&A. According to most analysts, M&A inflows contribute to the sterling’s growth and increase the pounds prospects in a longer term. This year foreign investors have bought the biggest amount of the UK assets since 2008 ($32.6 billion-worth). However, a note from Deutsche Bank warns that the strong pound is already affecting on the poor UK economy which is in a recession itself. For now sterling's crearly appreciating, though it's attactive mainly due to the problems elsewhere. The situation may change quickly enough, so use it while it's still here. Chart. Daily EUR/GBP Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-15/17629-gbp-enjoys-demand-vs-eur-and-usd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 "RBS: recommendations for AUD/USD"(2012-05-15) RBS: recommendations for AUD/USD Technical analysts at RBS claim that AUD/USD recovered enough and now one may once again go short. In their view, the pair is capped by the 5-day MA which has been limiting the bulls since the beginning of this month. The banks recommends selling Australian dollar versus its US counterpart at the current levels targeting $0.9860 and then $0.9667 and stopping today at 1.0113 (10-day MA). According to the specialists, support levels are situated at $0.9860 (December 15 minimum), $0.9715 (2 minimums posted in 2011) and $0.9404. Resistance levels for AUD/USD lie at $1.0095, $1.0140, $1.0436 (the inverse head and shoulders pattern would trigger further upside from here) and $1.0496/1.0509. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-15/17630-rbs-recommendations-audusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 "Euro zone avoided recession… for now"(2012-05-15) Euro zone avoided recession… for now Euro area managed to escape recession in Q1 with frat GDP reading (q/q), while the economists were looking forward to 0.2% contraction. Germany surprised analysts posting 0.5% q/q growth in Q1 – 5 times more than the market had expected. France showed flat results, while Italian economy contracted by 0.8% in the first 3 months of the year vs. projected decline of 0.7%. Even the Netherlands regarded as strong economy experienced economic contraction of 0.2%. Societe Generale: national GDP releases created the picture of an increasingly divergent euro area with the contrast between the northern and southern economies growing ever starker. Capital Economics: “The region remains heavily reliant on Germany. Policymakers’ talk of growth seems unlikely to amount to anything in the foreseeable future. The danger of a euro zone break-up is as great as ever.” ING Bank: “Our base case scenario is still for a gradual return to modestly positive euro zone growth in the second half of this year. But a further escalation of the debt crisis, let alone a Greek euro exit, could well derail the envisaged recovery.” IHS Global Insight: “There seems a compelling case for the European Central Bank to cut interest rates from the current level of 1%. But we suspect that the bank will remain reluctant to do so.” The European Commission expects euro zone’s GDP to decline by 0.3% in 2012 and then add 1% the next year.” Photo by EPA/BGNES Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-15/17637-euro-zone-avoided-recession-now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 17, 2012 Author Share Posted May 17, 2012 "Key options expiring today"(2012-05-17) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2790, $1.2800, $1.2850, $1.2900, $1.3000; GBP/USD: $1.5850, $1.6100, $1.6200; EUR/GBP: $0.8085, $0.8060, $0.8085; USD/JPY: 79.50, 79.75; USD/CHF: 0.9350; AUD/USD: $1.0100. Image from http://pakcricforum.com Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-17/17667-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 17, 2012 Author Share Posted May 17, 2012 "Analysts: outlook for EUR/USD"(2012-05-17) Analysts: outlook for EUR/USD The euro rebounded, paring a four-day decline against the dollar, as the currency’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI) fell to 22 yesterday, below the 30 level that some traders see as signaling an asset may reverse direction. Analysts at Bank of America are strongly bearish on EUR/USD in a long term, but expect a little upside correction these days. They recommend entering the trade at $1.2800 with a stop at $1.2870 and targeting at $1.2520. According to analysts, the pair may reach the target price in a week or two. Strategists at Danske Bank see EUR/USD at $1.2500 in one month time (forecast revised from $1.2900). In their view, the crisis dynamic is highly uncertain and a significant bigger move lower cannot be ruled out. According to CBA specialists, the euro will be falling gradually due to the time-expanded Greek issue: new elections will be held in a month, but there is no guarantee of a positive outcome. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-17/17668-analysts-outlook-eurusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 17, 2012 Author Share Posted May 17, 2012 "Barclays Capital: comments on AUD/USD"(2012-05-17) Barclays Capital: comments on AUD/USD According to analysts at Barclays Capital, a combination of global and domestic factors pulls AUD/USD below parity. However, in a short term the Aussie may enjoy a rally on the back of the postponed Greek elections and the softening tone of EU pro-austerity leaders. Specialists at Barclays Capital lowered their monthly forecast for AUD/USD from $1.0400 to $0.9600. They also cut their three-, six- and twelve-month forecasts to $0.9900, $1.0100 and $1.0200 respectively. Analysts believe the cross will get a yield-support after the middle of June. According to technical specialists, the pair may touch its 1.5-year lows in the $0.9385/0.9655 area in the medium term. The cross is still trading below the 50-,100- and 200-day MAs and below the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-17/17674-barclays-capital-comments-audusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 21, 2012 Author Share Posted May 21, 2012 "Key options expiring today"(2012-05-21) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2700, $1.2780, $1.2800, $1.2900 and $1.3000; USD/JPY: 79.50, 79.75 and 80.00; GBP/USD: $1.5785, $1.5880 and $1.5900; EUR/GBP: 0.8000. Image from http://seoklass.ru Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-21/17704-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 21, 2012 Author Share Posted May 21, 2012 "Nomura: short-term economic outlook"(2012-05-21) Nomura: short-term economic outlook Global: • China‘s growth re-accelerates in the second half after a first half slowdown to just above 8%. • Downside risks: an oil price spike; a euro-area flare up; the US end-2012 fiscal cliff effect; a China investment slump. • Upside risks: US consumers shrug off post-crisis blues, releasing pent-up demand; oil prices drop; euro tensions ease further. U.S. • Healthier labor market will continue supporting a revival of pent-up consumer demand in 2012. • Look for the FOMC to maintain its current policy for now, but to respond quickly if downside risks intensify. • Policymakers won’t act until after the election to avert the effects of severe fiscal tightening scheduled to begin in 2013. Europe • Look for the European Central Bank to cut the refinance rate to 0.50% in July with risks skewed towards less and later. • Assume the euro zone crisis will escalate and expect a new round of QE. Asia • Reconstruction is set to spur Japanese growth in the first half of 2012 even with slowing overseas economies. Source: Forbes Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-21/17707-nomura-short-term-economic-outlook Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 21, 2012 Author Share Posted May 21, 2012 "Greece: update from the battle-front"(2012-05-21) Greece: update from the battle-front Greece’s future remains extremely cloudy. Opinion polls differ. According to one, the distribution of votes will be the following: 28% - for Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA); 24% - for conservative New Democracy; 15% - for socialist PASOK; 8% - for the Independent Greeks, a right-wing anti-bailout party; 7% - for pro-European but anti-austerity party. According to another survey, ND is ahead of SYRIZA. New Democracy and PASOK signed Greece’s debt deal with socialist PASOK but has long pushed for a renegotiation of the terms of the agreement. Alexis Tsipras, the leader of SYRIZA, started 2-day visit to Paris and Berlin today. Yesterday Tsipras claimed that his party’s opposition to Greece’s debt deal would not mean a euro zone exit, while ND leader Antonis Samaras accused him of making empty promises. REUTERS/Yannis Behrakis Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/1970-01-01/17706-greece-update-battle-front Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 21, 2012 Author Share Posted May 21, 2012 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2012-05-21) Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD Weekly GBP/USD Last week sterling experienced a big slump versus its US counterpart. The pair GBP/USD tested the levels below weekly Ichimoku Cloud, but then ultimately closed the week right at Senkou Span A. The new trading week was opened with a gap lower – the bulls are trying to close it, but the bearish Cloud is acting as resistance. The prices breached support of the Turning line (2), so they are currently helped by the Standard line (1). Kijun-sen is moving horizontally and pointing at sideways trend – note that it may be in a rather broad range with the recent developments hinting at the fact that it may take place below the Cloud. Kumo is thin (3), so neither bulls, nor bears are really sure in themselves. All in all, the technical picture looks more negative than positive (GBP/USD returned below 200-week MA) and British currency is vulnerable for another leg lower in case Kijun-sen is breached. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD On the daily chart pound also breached important support levels – Kijun-sen (1), the support line connecting the minimums of January 13, March 12 and April 16 and the Ichimoku Cloud to consolidate below the latter. Kumo significantly narrowed in comparison to what we saw a week ago (3). The Turning line (2) dived below the Standard one (1) forming weak, but “dead cross”. We don’t think that pound will be able to return above psychological level of $1.6000 in the coming weeks as it seems that the pair has topped on April 30. We expect sterling to trade this week between $1.5780 and $1.5950/6000 showing a kind of consolidative recovery ahead of further declines. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-21/17710-ichimoku-weekly-forecast-gbpusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 21, 2012 Author Share Posted May 21, 2012 "Fidelity: likely scenario for euro"(2012-05-21) Fidelity: likely scenario for euro According to analysts at Fidelity Worldwide Investment, Greece is certain to leave the euro zone, but its exit is unlikely to collapse the whole system. Specialists forecast Spain to ask for assistance in the recapitalisation of its banks from both the ECB and the IMF in the coming months, but then the situation is expected to improve. In their view, Spain and Italy have all the chances to avoid expulsion, despite the fact that the austerity programs in these countries have been losing support over the last few months. The Greece’s cautionary example may illustrate the importance of the austerity measures and the probable consequences of non-cooperation with the EU. Analysts are convinced that Europe will never find a way out from crisis without a tight collaboration and political stability. Analysts recommend investors to focus on capital preservation. The best strategy is not to put priority on income, but to invest in low volatility instruments. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-21/17714-fidelity-likely-scenario-euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 21, 2012 Author Share Posted May 21, 2012 "Spain: struggle with deficit and recession"(2012-05-21) Spain: struggle with deficit and recession The Finance Ministry reported on Friday the Spain’s 2011 budget deficit could be revised to 8.9% of GDP from initial 8.5% after four of its 17 regions overshot their expected budgets. However, the Ministry still expects to meet the target of 5.3% for 2012 budget deficit. Spain’s authorities forecast the Spanish GDP to shrink by 0.3% in Q2 2012. Recession in Spain, therefore, continues for the third consecutive quarter (in Q4 and Q1 economy also contracted by 0.3%). These days the country is on a thin ice: the indebtedness is growing aggressively and the GDP is slowing down, leaving the euro zone’s economy under the threat. All eyes on the EU leaders: will they manage to balance austerity with growth? French President Francois Hollande said on Saturday he would make proposals for Eurobonds at an upcoming European summit in Brussels on May 23. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is opposed to euro zone bonds in a short-term prospect. Hollande, however, is determined to persuade Berlin to lift its veto on issuing common bonds in order to get instruments to stimulate growth in the region. Photo: AP Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-21/17715-spain-struggle-deficit-and-recession Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 21, 2012 Author Share Posted May 21, 2012 "EUR/USD: bulls vs. bears"(2012-05-21) EUR/USD: bulls vs. bears The common currency resumed a bullish correction vs. the greenback on Monday. The G8 meeting, held on May 18-19, didn’t give any clear answers, but the leaders expressed hope that Greece manages to stay in the euro zone. The G8 countries also stressed that their "imperative is to promote growth and jobs", giving a hint they are turning away from austerity. Growth is expected to be the main topic of the EU meeting on Wednesday (May 23), where French President Francois Hollande is expected to call for Eurobonds. According to analysts, focus on growth means the higher ECB involvement, “dovish” monetary policy and a weaker euro. The uncertainty in Europe persists: investors remain concerned about the possible consequences of the so-called “Grexit” (Greece may be forced to leave the euro zone if the anti-austerity party wins the elections in June) and about the situation in Spain’s banking sector (the country is expected to ask for bailout soon, 10-year bond yields increased to 6.29%). Bulls dominate the market on Monday; however, most analysts believe it's a short-time correction. EUR/USD still trades far below the 55-, 100- and 200-days MAs. MACD stays on the negative territory and below its signal line, giving sell-signals. The pair trades far below the daily Ichimoku Cloud. The bullish trend may strengthen if the pair manages to fix above the strong $1.2812 resistance (today’s maximum). Further resistance lies at $1.2845, $1.2880, $1.2910, $1.2930, $1.2950, $1.2970 and $1.3010, while support – at $1.2750, $1.2710, $1.2680, $1.2665 (May 17 minimum), $1.2640 (May 18 minimum). Chart. Daily EUR/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-21/17720-eurusd-bulls-vs-bears Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 22, 2012 Author Share Posted May 22, 2012 May 22: economic background Tuesday, May 22, 2012 - 06:30 EUR/USD shows a two-day advance ahead of the EU summit on Wednesday, which is expected to show who stands where among the European leaders. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said yesterday that good cooperation “doesn’t exclude differing positions” referring to Francois Hollande’s intention to push through the idea of Eurobonds. US session was positive with S&P 500 rising by 1.6%. Asian stocks added 1.2% today (MSCI Asia Pacific Index). Risk sentiment managed to improve, though the markets lack momentum. Commodity currencies got slightly higher versus the greenback. Demand for the New Zealand dollar and for the Aussie was supported as Asian stocks extended a global rally. US dollar itself gained a bit against Japanese yen and Swiss franc. On Wednesday the markets will be eyeing the Bank of Japan’s meeting. The benchmark rate is seen unchanged at 0.10% level, though the central bank may be forced to do more easing. Events to watch: • Great Britain: Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April is forecasted to grow by 3.1% (a decline in comparison with a 3.5% growth in March, but still much higher, than a 2% BoE target). It’s possible, however, that the rate falls to 3% (the lowest since February 2010) saving the BoE Governor Sir Mervyn King from issuing the inflation letter (the letter is only required if the inflation is below 1% or above 3% and is written to explain why inflation has overshot the target). Public sector net borrowing in April may decline to minus 5.4B vs. 15.9B in March. • U.S.: Annualized number of existing home sales – the main gauge of housing market conditions – may increase from 4.48M in March to 4.65M in April supporting the idea of the nation’s economic rebound. The labor market is America’s weakest spot and many investors go the US nowadays only because it’s better than Europe. • Europe: Consumer confidence in the euro area will likely remain low. Don’t wait for any surprises here. Spain will sell 3- and 6-month bills. • The OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) will release its global growth forecast. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-22/17722-may-22-economic-background Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 23, 2012 Author Share Posted May 23, 2012 "JPMorgan: forecast for fx majors"(2012-05-24) JPMorgan: forecast for fx majors According to analysts at JPMorgan Chase, the greenback is likely to strengthen versus its major counterparts as a “safe-haven” against the backdrop of possible Greek exit from the euro zone. Analysts expect the economic slump in China and in the U.S. to weaken commodity currencies as the prices will fall. Japanese yen is the only currency that is expected to appreciate against the dollar. Specialists sharply lowered their forecasts for EUR/USD to $1.22 in Q2 and to $1.24 by the end of 2012. USD/CAD is forecasted to reach C$1.04 by mid-year AUD/USD may fall to $0.96, while NZD/USD – to $0.73. USD/JPY, however, may weaken to 78.00 yen in Q2. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-23/17735-jpmorgan-forecast-fx-majors Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 23, 2012 Author Share Posted May 23, 2012 "Bank of America: EUR/JPY may gain"(2012-05-24) Bank of America: EUR/JPY may gain According to Bank of America, the common currency may reach its highest level against the Japanse yen in almost three weeks. Analysts expect EUR/JPY to strengthen in a short term to 105.80 yen (50% Fibonacci retracement of a decline from March 21 maximum to May 18 minimum). In their view, the euro is looking oversold (14-day RSI is close to 30, signaling the downtrend may reverse) Since the end of March the euro has declined 8% versus the Japanese currency. Chart. Daily EUR/JPY Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-23/17741-bank-america-eurjpy-may-gain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 23, 2012 Author Share Posted May 23, 2012 "RBS: comments on major currencies"(2012-05-24) RBS: comments on major currencies EUR: Weaker economic data expected later this week will limit EUR/USD upside potential from current levels. GBP: The sharper than expected fall in inflation in April may have lowered a potential barrier to more QE. GBP gains will be capped from here. The fair value for GBP/USD is at $1.54, so the pair may extend decline. A dovish set of BoE minutes is likely to support the ongoing squeeze higher in EUR/GBP. JPY: Japanese policy makers are expressing increased concern over JPY strength. Intervention risk will increase, if USD/JPY approaches 78 yen level. CHF: Swiss consumer confidence rebounded to the maximal level in a year, adding to the view that the economy is stabilizing. Renewed Euro zone fears are likely to increase demand for CHF amid safe haven flows, but the SNB stands ready to act. CAD: Core and headline y/y CPI for April increased and March manufacturing and wholesale sales improved. But there was foreign net selling of Canadian securities in March and external headwinds and positioning adjustments weighed on the CAD. AUD: Aussie has price in a lot of negative developments (lower commodity prices, weaker equities, narrower yield advantage, and domestic political uncertainty). At the same time, uncertainty in Europe suggests risks are still skewed to the downside. NZD: New Zealand’s government to deliver a credible budget on Thursday. Political stability much stronger than Australia. Recovery frustratingly slow, but looks somewhat oversold compared to the AUD. Chart. Daily EUR/JPY Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-23/17743-rbs-comments-major-currencies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 23, 2012 Author Share Posted May 23, 2012 "AUD/CAD: technical comments"(2012-05-24) AUD/CAD: technical comments AUD/CAD keeps trading in a downward channel since January. Last week a bullish correction followed the break below parity, but the bulls were unable to reverse the long-term downtrend. However, analysts at RBS see the potential for the pair’s upward reversal. The specialists underline that the pattern resembling such reversal model as “doji” was formed last week (see the weekly chart). In their view, the value of this observation increases as the market is trading in oversold conditions (14-week RSI is close to 30). According to RBS, one may go long on AUD/CAD at $1.0060. The bank recommends increasing positions if Aussie overcomes 1.0112 (May 17 maximum). Bullish targets lie at 1.0430 onto 1.0557, while stops may be places around 0.9890. In our view, the picture on the daily and weekly Ichimoku charts is still too negative. We advise you to bear this trade in mind. If the pair rebounds in the 0.9925/00 area (and support looks solid enough), don’t hurry and watch for the parity level. If the rate overcomes 1.0000, get ready to follow the lead of RBS. Support levels: - 0.9943 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of a 2010-2011 growth); - 0.9925 (support of a channel); - 0.9913 (2009 maximum, 100% Fibonacci retracement of a 2009 growth). Resistance levels: - 0.9977 (May 15 minimum); - 1.0175 (resistance of a channel); - 1.0000 (parity); - 1.0207 (double top in 2010); - 1.0430 (100-day MA, 123.6% Fibonacci retracement). Chart. Daily AUD/CAD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/17748-audcad-technical-comments Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 23, 2012 Author Share Posted May 23, 2012 "OECD: GDP growth forecast"(2012-05-24) OECD: GDP growth forecast According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), euro zone’s debt crisis may spill over outside the euro area with very serious consequences for the global economy The OECD left its 2012 growth forecasts for 34 member-countries unchanged at 1.6% (euro zone’s concerns were offset by the improving prospects of the U.S. economy). The OECD’s report recommends the ECB to be ready to resume quantitative easing if the situation in the euro region worsens. According to economists, declining inflationary pressure gives space for monetary stimulus. Table. OECD GDP growth forecast for euro region Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-23/17752-oecd-gdp-growth-forecast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 23, 2012 Author Share Posted May 23, 2012 "EUR renewed 2012 minimum"(2012-05-24) EUR renewed 2012 minimum Today EUR/USD slid to $1.2614 renewing the year's minimum. Then euro managed to recover to $1.2650 helped by option buyers. Experts say that there is a barrier at $1.2600 with likely stops just beneath ahead of more sell stops through $1.2580. Commerzbank notes that if we see a sustainable bearish breakthrough below $1.2624 (previous 2012 minimum), EUR/USD will head to support at $1.2530 and $1.2066. Resistance lies at $1.2750 (May 17 maximum). In the longer term the outlook for EUR/USD will remain bearish as long as it’s trading below $1.2875/1.3000. On the fundamental part, Morgan Stanley claims that “very little is likely to come out of this summit... The pressure remains on the downside in EUR/USD and any rebounds will be sold into in this environment.” Chart. Daily EUR/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-23/17752-oecd-gdp-growth-forecast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 24, 2012 Author Share Posted May 24, 2012 May 24: economic events Thursday, May 24, 2012 - 07:04 There are many headlines today. Firstly, the EU summit revealed that the leaders aren’t willing to compromise: the agreement on Eurobonds wasn’t reached. According to French President Francois Hollande, Eurobonds are necessary to protect the indebted countries from high borrowing costs. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, however, said much stronger economic cooperation in the region is needed before Eurobonds can be issued. EU leaders underlined that they want Greece to remain in the euro area while respecting its commitments. EUR/USD touched $1.2545 yesterday, the lowest level since July 13, 2010, due to mounting worries about a disorderly Greek exit from the euro zone. Elsewhere Chinese HSBC flash Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.3 in April to 48.7 in May indicating that business conditions for Chinese manufacturers deteriorated (the index was already below the benchmark level of 50 points). New Zealand’s trade surplus increased from March reading, but came significantly below the forecasts (355M vs. 450M expected). The nation’s authorities released the budget: deficit’s seen at NZD$ -7.9 billion this year and next before returning to surplus in 2014. NZD/USD is rising after 2-day decline as traders realized that kiwi’s recent depreciation was too rapid. Today watch for European PMI data (forecast mixed, but the bias is negative), UK revised GDP (recession will likely get confirmed) and US core durable goods and unemployment claims figures. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-24/17754-may-24-economic-events Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 24, 2012 Author Share Posted May 24, 2012 "Germany avoids recession, but PMIs upset"(2012-05-24) Germany avoids recession, but PMIs upset On Thursday final GDP release confirmed that Germany, avoided technical recession: the largest euro zone’s economy grew in Q1 after a worrisome contraction in Q4 2011. Germany resumed growth due to increase in exports and private consumption. ING analysts comment the rejection of Francois Hollande’s idea of Eurobonds by Angela Merkel: “While the euro zone is still searching for growth, Germany already has it”. Commerzbank claims that after the (EU) summit without any results there's still a lot of uncertainty about Greece. "The last thing we need in this situation is the German economy getting into trouble,” the specialists say. However, German business confidence came below expectations in May on Greek concerns, and so did the economic activity data (PMIs). Table. Euro zone's economic data (May 24) Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-24/17759-germany-avoids-recession-pmis-upset Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 24, 2012 Author Share Posted May 24, 2012 "Pound recovers after negative GDP"(2012-05-24) Pound recovers after negative GDP Sterling strengthens against the greenback despite the negative GDP release. The British currency is supported by the preliminary business investment: indicator increased in March by 3.6% vs. a 3.3% decline in February. Great Britain’s economy contracted more than initially estimated due to a slump in construction. Q1 GDP shrank by 0.3% (vs. a preliminary estimated a 0.2% contraction). In current economic conditions many analysts expect the Bank of England to run a new round of bond purchases. Societe Generale: If there’s a heightening of tensions in the euro crisis in the next few months, the bank would respond. We expect another GDP fall in Q2 and a return to growth in Q3. Support: 1.5606 (March minimum); 1.5504 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the Jan - Feb rally). Resistance: 1.5820 (April strong support); 1.5929 (February maximum); 1.6000 (psychological); 1.6091. Chart. H4 GBP/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-24/17765-pound-recovers-after-negative-gdp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 24, 2012 Author Share Posted May 24, 2012 "Key options expiring today"(2012-05-24) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2525, $1.2550, $1.2600 and $1.2625; GBP/USD: $1.5700 and $1.5750; USD/JPY: 79.40/50 and 80.00; AUD/USD: 0.9750 and 0.9800; EUR/GBP: 0.8050 (smaller at 0.8000). Image from yourmoneydictionary.com Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-24/17763-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 24, 2012 Author Share Posted May 24, 2012 "Citigroup: if Greece leaves euro area…"(2012-05-24) Citigroup: if Greece leaves euro area… Analysts at Citigroup believe that the odds of Geek exit from the euro area (“Grexit” as they say now) are increasing and account currently for 50-75%. In their view, the most important question is whether other countries will follow. According to Citigroup, if Greece is the only nation leaving the euro area its exit will be a positive factor for euro as with the elimination of the weak link the rest of the region will become stronger. However, one should remember that we are dealing with the market’s sentiment: if Greece leaves, the fears about other peripheral economies will mount and risk premiums will surge making it impossible for these nations to meet the fiscal and growth targets. As a result, the fate of euro would depend on the ability of the European authorities to convince the market of their determination to stick to euro. Taking into account the current inability of the policymakers to reach consensus and deliver some credible anti-crisis measures, euro will likely remain under heavy pressure until investors become convinced of the policymakers’ resolve. The specialists think that if Greece leaves the currency union, Portugal and Ireland will ask for second aid packages; Spain will get some form of aid; the ECB will cut its benchmark rate to 0.5% and probably resume longer-term refinancing operations. In addition, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy will be downgraded. Image from http://greece.greekreporter.com Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-24/17767-citigroup-if-greece-leaves-euro-area Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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