internationallove Posted May 7, 2012 Author Share Posted May 7, 2012 "Analysts: outlook for AUD/USD"(2012-05-07) Analysts: outlook for AUD/USD Monday, May 7, 2012 - 10:30 The Australian dollar opened the week on a downside amid concern election results in France and Greece will deepen the euro zone’s crisis. However, throughout the day positive news from Australia improved the market sentiment. FX Prime: There are major concerns about the euro. What’s common to both Greek and French voting is that people aren’t feeling good about austerity measures, which are the crux to a resolution of Europe’s debt problems. Europe’s economic and political mayhem is may influence the economies, regarded as safe havens: policymakers may cut interest rates to weaken the currencies. Societe Generale: In a weakening global environment, countries that can cut rates will do so and their currencies can fall. Europe is an economy with a currency that isn’t expensive, with not much scope or appetite for cuts. Westpac Banking: We’ve got what may well prove to be the next wave of instability from Europe. There’s a clear voter rejection of austerity evident. We’d expect the Aussie and the kiwi to remain under pressure. Australia’s retail sales grew by 0.9% in March after a revised 0.3% gain in February. Number of new building approvals increased by 7.4% after an 8.8% decline in February, pointing that the housing market improved in March. Standard Chartered: The data was actually very strong, so it’s more like it’s putting a floor on the Aussie weakness that we’re seeing. It’s difficult to see the Aussie bouncing in this environment where risk sentiment is pretty weak. The AUD/USD pair is currently trading in the 1.0180 area. Analysts at ANZ expect the Aussie to trade at $1.07 by December versus the greenback. According to Bloomberg forecast, the currency will end 2012 at $1.04. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-07/17552-analysts-outlook-audusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 7, 2012 Author Share Posted May 7, 2012 "UBS: outlook for the US dollar"(2012-05-07) UBS: outlook for the US dollar Monday, May 7, 2012 - 13:00 Last week the US Dollar Index increased from 78.60 on Monday to 79.60 on Friday. According to analysts at UBS, the greenback was supported by the worrisome data coming from Europe and by the low likeliness of new round of QE in US. According to analysts, poor Friday’s NFP were offset by an improvement in other key indicators. Specialists at UBS continue to believe in the greenback as they do not expect the US economy to slow down sufficiently to allow the Fed’s doves to push for additional asset purchases. Chart. US Dollar Index Source: Bloomberg Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-07/17555-ubs-outlook-us-dollar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 8, 2012 Author Share Posted May 8, 2012 "BBH: outlook for AUD/USD "(2012-05-08) BBH: outlook for AUD/USD The Aussie weakens against the greenback on Tusday after weak trade data report. Trade deficit in March reached 1.59B vs.1.38B deficit forecasted and 0.75B deficit in February. The Australian Government, however, remains forecasting a return to surplus by 2012/13, as promised last year. According to analysts, tight fiscal policy and eased monetary policy will continue pushing the AUD/USD pair down. Strong resistance for the pair lies at 1.0220 level. In a longer-term analysts expect the pair to fall to 0.9860. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-08/17559-bbh-outlook-audusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 8, 2012 Author Share Posted May 8, 2012 "BBH: outlook for AUD/USD "(2012-05-08) BBH: outlook for AUD/USD The Aussie weakens against the greenback on Tusday after weak trade data report. Trade deficit in March reached 1.59B vs.1.38B deficit forecasted and 0.75B deficit in February. The Australian Government, however, remains forecasting a return to surplus by 2012/13, as promised last year. According to analysts, tight fiscal policy and eased monetary policy will continue pushing the AUD/USD pair down. Strong resistance for the pair lies at 1.0220 level. In a longer-term analysts expect the pair to fall to 0.9860. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-08/17559-bbh-outlook-audusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 8, 2012 Author Share Posted May 8, 2012 "CharmerCharts: trading GBP/USD "(2012-05-08) CharmerCharts: trading GBP/USD The sterling continued weakening against the greenback on Tuesday after yesterday's growth. Bank holiday in UK on Monday hindered the reaction of the pound on the results of French and Greek elections. Analysts at CharmerCharts see the target dor the cable at 1.6110/085 levels. They believe the break below 1.6065 may cause another wave of selling pressure which should drive the price lower for 1.6005 to 1.5990. Resistance for GBP/USD lies at 1.6180, 1.6200 and 1.6245. On the downside, supports might act at 1.6135 and 1.6115. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-08/17557-charmercharts-trading-gbpusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 9, 2012 Author Share Posted May 9, 2012 "Taylor: Greece will abandon euro in June"(2012-05-09) Taylor: Greece will abandon euro in June The resent changes on European political landscape made some analysts come up with more radical forecasts of euro’s future than they used to have before. For example, John Taylor, the head of the world’s largest currency hedge fund FX Concepts, now thinks that Greece may leave the euro area already in June. The specialist warns that the nation’s government will soon have no more cash, while European institutions won’t be able to give it more money due to the emerging political split between France and Germany. Greece itself is in the situation of uncertainty: if the policymakers fail to form a governing coalition, there will be other Parliament elections in the middle of the next month. “I think that people are feeling the implications of a Greek exit aren’t so bad. If Greece leaves the euro, Europeans will turn around and huddle together and say, ‘how do I help Portugal and Spain?” Taylor says. Image from blogs.telegraph.co.uk Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-09/17...andon-euro-june Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 9, 2012 Author Share Posted May 9, 2012 "Deutsche Bank: outlook for USD/JPY "(2012-05-09) Deutsche Bank: outlook for USD/JPY The yen strengthens against the greenback this week as the Japanese currency benefits from its “safe haven” status. Analysts at Deutsche Bank, however, recently revised their forecast for USD/JPY to bullish after being bearish since 2008. They now expect the pair to rise to 82 yen by the end of 2012, compared with previous forecast 75 yen. In their view, USD/JPY may strengthen in a short term, but the trend is descending. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-09/17...-outlook-usdjpy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 9, 2012 Author Share Posted May 9, 2012 "Analysts: BoE may extend QE program"(2012-05-09) Analysts: BoE may extend QE program On Thursday, May 10, the Bank of England holds its monthly meeting. Some analysts expect the regulator to extend its asset purchase program tomorrow. According to the BoE governor Mervyn King, the inflation in the U.K. is too high and the nation's economic recovery too slow. The annual rate of inflation, which was 3.5% in March, remains well above the BOE's 2% target. Mervyn King said last week that the current crisis is far from over. Investec: In conditions of sticky inflation versus stuck economy the BoE may add another £25bn to its £325bn program of QE on its Thursday meeting. The committee will worry more about low growth than an inflation rate that is taking longer to come down than it predicted. Capital Economics: The BoE may add £25bn to its asset purchase program in autumn. Commerzbank: The BoE may adopt the wait-and-see approach: despite the fact that in a longer term the QE extension is possible, now we expect the bank to leave the room for maneuver in case if the markets require support. Photo: Daniel Jones Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-09/17566-analysts-boe-may-extend-qe-program Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 10, 2012 Author Share Posted May 10, 2012 "Key options expiring today"(2012-05-10) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3000, $1.3085, $1.3100, $1.3130 and $1.3150; USD/JPY: 79.05,80,00 and 80.25, 81.00; EUR/JPY: 106.35; GBP/USD: $1.6060, $1.6300; AUD/USD $1.0000, $1.0195, $1.0200; AUD/JPY: 83.00. Have a profitable trading day! Image from http://idenull.blogspot.com Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-10/17575-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 10, 2012 Author Share Posted May 10, 2012 "EUR/USD: technical comments from Commerzbank"(2012-05-10) EUR/USD: technical comments from Commerzbank Analysts at Commerzbank claim that there is considerable divergence on H4 chart, so they expect a corrective rebound today. Chart. H4 EUR/USD At the same time the situation on the daily chart remains negative. Commerzbank targets $1.2624 (January minimum) with support at $1.2809 (January 17 maximum). Rebound will become possible if EUR/USD overcomes resistance at $1.3080 (May 4 minimum) and $1.3233/50 (late April/ early May highs area). Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-10/17575-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 10, 2012 Author Share Posted May 10, 2012 "Bloomberg Poll: hard times for Europe ahead"(2012-05-10) Bloomberg Poll: hard times for Europe ahead The market is always about sentiment. During the last 2 years we have been continually discussing the possibility of disintegration in Europe. More than half of the experts surveyed by Bloomberg think that the 17-member currency union will once again become 16-memer one and that this will happen in 2012. According to Bloomberg Global Poll, 57% out of the 1,253 investors believe that Greece will quit euro zone this year. In addition, 80% of respondents foresee more stress for the European bond markets. Note that 47% of interviewed expect Spanish default, 63% – the one of Portugal and about 25% – the one of Italy or Ireland. As for Greece, 94% of investors said it will default on its debt. The nation has already restructured its debt to private bondholders. The survey was conducted on May 8. Lloyds Banking: “Another flare-up of the crisis is likely. The key variable for Europe is domestic politics.” Photo by Bloomberg Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-10/17579-bloomberg-poll-hard-times-europe-ahead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 10, 2012 Author Share Posted May 10, 2012 "Merkel’s firm on austerity plans(2012-05-10) Merkel’s firm on austerity plans In her speech to Bundestag today German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that: · Europe's only hope is to implement structural reforms alongside austerity measures. · Economic growth may be reached through structural reforms. The calls for growth through debt would throw the region back to the beginning of the crisis. · It would take a long time to overcome the crisis. Germany keeps favoring austerity measures in the euro area, but will anyone follow its lead now when Merkel’s main ally – France – no longer supports such approach? Image from debatepolitics.com Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/1970-01-01/17580-merkels-firm-austerity-plans Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 10, 2012 Author Share Posted May 10, 2012 "Barclays: bearish on EUR/GBP(2012-05-10) Barclays: bearish on EUR/GBP Analysts at Barclays are bearish on the single currency versus British pound. This week euro hit the minimal levels versus sterling since 2008. In their view, EUR/GBP will weaken to firstly to 0.7960 and then to 0.7700 (October 2008 minimum) and 0.7300 in the medium and long terms. According to the bank, the pair’s prospects will remain negative as long as it's trading below 0.8075/0.8100.· It would take a long time to overcome the crisis. Germany keeps favoring austerity measures in the euro area, but will anyone follow its lead now when Merkel’s main ally – France – no longer supports such approach? Chart. Weekly EUR/GBP Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-10/17581-barclays-bearish-eurgbp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 10, 2012 Author Share Posted May 10, 2012 "2 ways of trading GBP/USD"(2012-05-10) 2 ways of trading GBP/USD Danske Bank: sell GBP/USD at $1.6155 targeting $1.6055 and stopping at $1.6208. Commerzbank: try small longs at $1.6085 targeting $1.6300 with tight stops at $1.6065/50. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-10/17583-2-ways-trading-gbpusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 10, 2012 Author Share Posted May 10, 2012 "BOTMUFJ: comments on AUD/JPY"(2012-05-10) BOTMUFJ: comments on AUD/JPY Technical analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ believe that there’s a chance of Australian dollar to start gaining versus Japanese yen. Yesterday AUD/JPY hit 3 1/2-month minimum at 72.06, but today it returned above key support levels at 80.35 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s advance from October minimum to March maximum) and 80 yen (psychological level). The specialists think that if the bulls manage to hold the rate above these levels, the pair will get chance to strengthen to 84 yen (90-day MA). Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-10/17585-botmufj-comments-audjpy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 10, 2012 Author Share Posted May 10, 2012 "Will good jobs data keep RBA from cutting?"(2012-05-10) Will good jobs data keep RBA from cutting? The Australian dollar strengthens on the back of the unexpectedly positive employment data released on Thursday. The unemployment rate fell to 4.9% in April compared with 5.3% forecast and 5.2% in March. Australia’s economy surprisingly added 15K new jobs this month against a 4.8K decline forecasted and a 37.6K decline in March. Payrolls rose mostly due to the part time work, which added 26K jobs to payroll, while the full time employment declined by 10.5K. However, many analysts still expect the Reserve bank of Australia (RBA) to cut rates by 25 b.p. on its next meeting in June in order to stimulate economic growth. ANZ Banking and Westpac think that risk aversion together with loose fiscal and monetary policy will put Aussie under pressure. Societe Generale, on the other hand, claims that today’s positive employment figures change the game. According to the specialists, rate cut in June is not likely, so close to the recent 50 b.p. reduction; the next cut is expected in August. Employment figures show a large deviation from expectations, but the full-time employment still continues to decline. The April employment gain, therefore, will generate less additional household income than if it had come from full-time employment. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-10/17587-will-good-jobs-data-keep-rba-cutting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 14, 2012 Author Share Posted May 14, 2012 May 14-18: Events to watch Monday, May 14, 2012 - 07:45 Tuesday, May 15 • Australia: Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. After the positive jobs report released this week, the central’s bank rate cut in June is no longer that evident, although with disappointing Chinese data (remember: main trading partner) Australian authorities may feel the need for stimulus all the same. • Euro zone: there’s a number of Q1 preliminary GDP releases: French (0.2% previous, 0.0% forecast), German (-0.2% previous, 0.1% forecast), Italian (-0.7% previous, -0.6% forecast). The region is expected to enter an official recession contracting by 0.2% in the first 3 months of the year (second quarter in a row), while Spain and Italy are already there. German figures are especially important: if the leading euro area’s economy disappoints, this will hit an already feeble sentiment sending US dollar and Japanese yen up versus their peers as safe havens. In addition, watch German May ZEW Economic Sentiment and follow the news about ECOFIN Meetings. Newly elected French President Francois Hollande meets German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin. According to German government, Hollande's visit is a "strong signal" regarding the determination of both countries to continue their strong relationship. Euro zone’s leaders are expected to discuss the development of the region's monetary and fiscal policy. As is known, they have contradictory views on austerity. • US: data for April. Economists look forward to a decline in American retail sales (both core and headline), while the CPI growth may slow down from 0.3% to 0.1%, though the core reading is seen unchanged. We will also get info on the demand for US debt: TIC Long-Term Purchases are expected to increase from 19.4B in February to 10.1B in March. Wednesday, May 16 • Great Britain: A lot of important news for pound will be released. Claimant count in April may rise by 4.9K compared with 3.6K rise in March. The Governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King in his speech is expected to signal that interest rates will not rise from their record low until late 2013 at the earliest, as the UK's growth disappoints. Inflation report may leave the door open to the possibility of more QE, either explicitly or by forecasting that inflation will probably fall below the 2% target within 2-3 years without a change in policy. According to analysts at Citi, such a forecast could prepare the ground for the MPC to resume QE (bond purchases) in coming months if activity data and the European monetary union crisis worsen, or if the inflation worries diminish. • U.S.: The release of the important housing market data is scheduled on Wednesday. According to forecasts, annualized number of building permits in April may to grow by 0.73M after a 0.75M growth in March. Number of housing starts in April is expected to increase by 0.69M against 0.65M in March. Industrial production in April may grow by 0.6% after remaining unchanged in March. FOMC Meeting Minutes are not expected to give any hints on policy easing - during the last meeting in April Bernanke stated in his press conference that "all the options are on the table", but the chances seem to fade away. • Euro zone: The speech of ECB President Draghi will be scrutinized by the investors, aiming to forecast the euro zone’s future. Germany holds a 10-year bond auction. Thursday, May 17 • Euro zone: Banks in France, Germany and Switzerland will be closed because of the national holidays. Spain holds a 10-year bond auction. • New Zealand: Producer price index in Q1 may remain unchanged after a 0.5% growth in Q4. • Australia: Inflation expectations data will be published. • Japan: Preliminary GDP growth in Q1 may reach 0.9% after a 0.2% contraction in Q4. • US: The number of unemployment claims fixed last week may grow by 370K vs. the previous print 367K. Later on Thursday Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will be released: in May is forecasted to grow to 10.6. Philadelphia region manufacturers' index declined more than expected in April reaching 8.5 from 12.5 in March, demonstrating the biggest drop in six months. However, most analysts believe improved consumer spending will provide further growth to the manufacturing sector. Friday, May 18 • Great Britain: 10-year bond auction will be held. • Canada: Core CPI growth in April is expected to remain unchanged at 0.3%. CPI may grow by 0.3% after a 0.4% growth in March. • All: US President Barack Obama will host a two-day G8 Meetings at Camp David. The Group of Eight (G8) is a forum, where the eight of the world's most industrialized nations meet to discuss key topics and provide solutions for global issues. The G8 includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States. May 14: today's economic focus Monday, May 14, 2012 - 06:00 News, influencing the markets on Monday, is contradictory. Euro still remains under pressure due to uncertainty, coming from Greece. On Monday Greece’s President Karolos Papoulias meets the political party leaders in a final attempt to form an emergency coalition. However, no one already believes in the success of the discussions. These days Greece’s prospects are negative: either the default or exit from the euro zone. China has cut its reserve ratios (RRR) by 50 bps over the weekend, adding stimulus to support the economy. That was the third reduction in six months. According to Reuters poll, the market consensus is for 100 bps of more RRR cuts this year. High-yield currencies benefit from the RRR cut. Asian shared opened this week in red after losing 4.4% last week (MSCI Asia Pacific Index). AUD/USD tested today the levels below parity on weak risk sentiment, though managed to hold above 1.0000 helped by the news about China’s RRR cut and the fact that the nation’s home approvals unexpectedly rebounded in March. Data to watch today: • Euro zone: industrial production: no surprise that a decline in growth is expected in March. • Italy: 10-year bond auction (previous: 5.84|1.5). • Europe’s finance ministers meet in Brussels in the evening: Greece may be on the agenda. • Switzerland: SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks. Last month Jordan reaffirmed his commitment to the EUR/CHF threshold at 1.20, saying the franc is overvalued and that he expects it to weaken. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-14/17606-may-14-18-events-watch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 14, 2012 Author Share Posted May 14, 2012 CFTC traders positioning data Monday, May 14, 2012 - 08:00 The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report for the week to May 8, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that: • The net long US dollar position rose by 62% to $20.5 billion. • The net short euro position increased by 32% to 143.9K contracts ($23.4 billion, the most since February). • The net short yen position decreased by 18% to 41K contracts ($6.4 billion). • The net short pound position rose by 50% to $6 billion. • The net short Swiss franc position was increased by 13% to 16K contracts ($2.2 billion). In addition, speculators continue to think the Canadian, Australian, and New Zealand dollars will appreciate against the greenback, though the bets were slashed. Investors lost confidence mostly in Aussie: longs fell by 53% from the previous week to $2.5 billion. It’s necessary to note that the figures cited above are always a week old at the time of their release. Never the less, CFTC data gives a good oversight into how the market is positioned and if/how these positions are being unwound. Although the CME speculators represent a small fraction of trading in the currency markets, their trades are widely seen as typical of hedge fund investors' currency movements. Image from etftrends.com Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-14/17607-cftc-trader-positioning-data Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 14, 2012 Author Share Posted May 14, 2012 "Danske, Westpac, UBS: bearish on EUR"(2012-05-14) Danske, Westpac, UBS: bearish on EUR Danske Bank: sell EUR/USD at $1.3024 targeting $1.2802 and stopping at $1.3014. Westpac: sell EUR/USD in the $1.3000 area targeting $1.2700. UBS: EUR/USD will be trade around $1.3000 in June and then decline to $1.2500 during the next 3 month. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-14/17609-danske-westpac-ubs-bearish-eur Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 14, 2012 Author Share Posted May 14, 2012 "When to return to AUD longs?"(2012-05-14) When to return to AUD longs? Australian dollar has been rapidly falling against the greenback since the beginning of the month. Today AUD/USD hit 0.9963, the minimal level since December 2011. Analysts at ANZ claim that the attempts of the bulls to push Aussie up versus its US counterpart will be limited by resistance in the $1.0080/1.0110 zone. In their view, the downside risks for the pair will subside only if it overcomes $1.0225. If it happens, one may try returning to AUD longs. The specialists think that on a broad scale we see consolidation of AUD/USD and recommend closely watching momentum and price action during the pair’s retracements up in order to find ideal entry levels and timings. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/1970-01-01/17613-when-return-aud-longs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 14, 2012 Author Share Posted May 14, 2012 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2012-05-14) Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD Weekly GBP/USD British currency opened the week on the upside versus the greenback after 2-week decline from 2012 maximum in the $1.6300 area. Pound was supported by the Turning line (1) which is still going up on the weekly chart and the upper border of the descending Ichimoku Cloud (3). The Standard line (2) is moving sideways and pointing at potential consolidation. Among the positive things one should note that the bearish Cloud has narrowed and may switch upwards in the near term reflecting stronger positions of the bulls. Now everything depends on the ability of the prices to hold above the Cloud. If they manage to do it, the consolidation between the current levels and this year’s highs will likely continue. If they don’t, sterling will ease down to Senkou Span A (4). The specialists think that on a broad scale we see consolidation of AUD/USD and recommend closely watching momentum and price action during the pair’s retracements up in order to find ideal entry levels and timings. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD Pound’s currently testing support provided by Kijun-sen (1) ($1.6050). A bit lower, in the $1.6000 area, British currency will be able to count on the support line connecting the minimums of January 13, March 12 and April 16. In addition, the level mentioned above is very important from the psychological point of view. If this support is breached and the prices head towards Ichimoku Cloud, the downside risks will increase as Kumo is rather thin in that zone. At the same time, there’s a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the advance made by pound this year ($1.5890), which will increase the chances of the prices’ recoiling up (making us expect the “head and shoulders” pattern to form). Although bullish Kumo has started narrowing, it’s too early to speak about the potential reversal of the trend downwards – watch 3 support levels mentioned above. The main resistance for sterling is provided by Tenkan-sen (2) which has recently turned down and was capping sterling during the whole last week. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-14/17616-ishimoku-gbpusd-nedelya-14-18-marta Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 14, 2012 Author Share Posted May 14, 2012 "RBS: bearish on EUR/GBP"(2012-05-14) RBS: bearish on EUR/GBP Analysts at RBS recommend selling the single currency versus British pound targeting 0.7695 (2010 minimum) in the longer term and stopping at 0.8110 (May 3-4 minimums). The specialists claim that support levels for EUR/GBP lie at 0.7999 (May 10-11 minimum) and 0.7695, while the resistance ones – at 0.8069, 0.8077 (lower border of the gap), 0.8096 (upper border of the gap), 0.8192 (April 19 maximum), 0.8222 (previous significant support) and 0.8500 (61.8% retracement from the pair’s advance after 2008 credit crunch). Chart. Daily EUR/GBP Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-14/17617-rbs-bearish-eurgbp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 May 15: economic background Tuesday, May 15, 2012 - 06:00 Asian session was surprisingly quite. The RBA released its last meeting minutes showing that last month 50 b.p. rate cut was caused by the easing growth and inflation. The stalemate in Greece persists: Alexis Tsipras, the head of Syriza party which opposes the bailout and austerity, wouldn’t attend a meeting called by President Karolos Papoulias today – no doubt, bad news for risk sentiment. Moody’s Investors Service downgraded 26 Italian banks including Unicredit SpA and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA citing weakened earnings and the country’s economic prospects. Yesterday euro area’s industrial production came in even worse than expected contracting by 0.3% in March. Now the markets prepare to hear about the region’s falling into official recession. The forecast is for the currency union’s GDP to contract by 0.2% in the first 3 months of the year (second quarter in a row). Spain and Italy are already suffering from recession. The release is at 9:00 a.m. GMT. France has already reported 0.0% (q/q) change in line with sonsensus forecast. German economy, however, exceeded expectation adding 0.5% (q/q) versus 0.1% estimate. Italian Q1 data (-0.7% previous, -0.6% forecast) is due in 2 hours. In the medium term, the majority of forecasts for euro are bearish. Also to watch today: In addition, watch German May ZEW Economic Sentiment and follow the news about ECOFIN Meetings. Newly elected French President Francois Hollande meets German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin. According to German government, Hollande's visit is a "strong signal" regarding the determination of both countries to continue their strong relationship. Euro zone’s leaders are expected to discuss the development of the region's monetary and fiscal policy. As is known, they have contradictory views on austerity. US will release data for April. Economists look forward to a decline in American retail sales (both core and headline), while the CPI growth may slow down from 0.3% to 0.1%, though the core reading is seen unchanged. We will also get info on the demand for US debt: TIC Long-Term Purchases are expected to increase from 19.4B in February to 10.1B in March. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-15/17619-may-15-economic-background Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 "Key options expiring today"(2012-05-15) Key options expiring today Tuesday, May 15, 2012 - 07:15 Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2750, $1.2800, $1.2850, 41.2925, $1.2950; GBP/USD: $1.6100; USD/JPY: 79.50, 79.55, 79.75, 80.00; AUD/USD: $1.0000 (large), $1.0150. Image from yourmoneydictionary.com Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/17622-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 "Sell EUR/USD on the recovery"(2012-05-15) Sell EUR/USD on the recovery The single currency recovered from almost a 4-month minimum in the $1.2810 area to the daily high at $1.2869. Germany surprised analysts posting 0.5% q/q growth in Q1 – 5 times more than the market had expected. As a result, the concerns about the euro zone’s crisis and its impact on the region’s economic growth have a bit subsided. Note that demand for US dollar is also lower due to the Fed’s April 25 meeting minutes release tomorrow – the Chairman Ben Bernanke said that day that he’s prepared to “do more” to boost the economic recovery and underlined that inflation remains close to target. The medium-term forecasts for euro are still quite negative. As a result, it looks like a chance to sell on rallies. We see that Italian GDP figures (-0.8% q/q vs. -0.7% expected) have already made EUR/USD pull back a little lower. Resistance for the pair is situated at $1.2870 (today’s highs) and $1.2935 (May 14 maximum), while support is at $1.2807 (January 17 maximum, $1.2733 (January 18 minimum) and $1.2700. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-15/17627-sell-eurusd-recovery Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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