internationallove Posted April 16, 2012 Author Share Posted April 16, 2012 "Banks' forecasts for FX majors"(2012-04-16) Banks' forecasts for FX majors Forecasts are submitted on April 13 Source: FX Week Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-16/17321-banks-forecasts-fx-majors Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 16, 2012 Author Share Posted April 16, 2012 "NZD expected to weaken"(2012-04-16) NZD expected to weaken The New Zealand dollar may weaken this week because the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to leave the official cash rate (OCR) at 2.5% level due to CPI forecasts. Release of a quarterly consumer price index (CPI) is scheduled on Thursday, April 19. Economists expect the CPI rose 0.6% in Q1 vs. a 0.3% decrease in Q4 2011. According to experts, the RBNZ will have little reason to raise interest rates this year. The CPI was probably driven up by an increase in the government excise on tobacco. New Zealand's food price index (FPI) released this morning showed prices fell 1% in March vs. 0.6% increase in February, adding to evidence that inflation level is favorable. In March Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard held the official cash rate at 2.5% saying the strength of the kiwi would keep interest rates lower for longer. Analysts at Barclays Capital expect the CPI to surprise to the upside at 0.7%. Key interest rate is unlikely to be cut further, because it remains at a historic low since March 2011. Analysts expect the AUD/NZD to strengthen. According to currency strategists at RBC, the New Zealand dollar is overbought. Moreover, they add that low risk sentiment weighs on the commodity currencies, including the kiwi. The New Zealand dollar may also be influenced by the results of the Spain bond auction held on Thursday. It’s necessary to note that kiwi will get some support from China’s trading band widening as extra flexibility would likely help New Zealand exporters. Chart. Daily NZD/USD Comment here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-16/17325-nzd-expected-weaken Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 "Euro down before Europe's data"(2012-04-17) Euro down before Europe's data Tuesday, April 17, 2012 - 06:45 The common currency weakened against the greenback before Europe’s data releases. German ZEW Economic Sentiment index is forecasted to decline from 22.3 (a 21-month high) to 19.7. Spain will sell 12-month and 18-month bills today. On the back of the deepening crisis country’s borrowing costs may grow. Yields on the nation’s 10-year notes touched 6.16% yesterday, edging toward the 7% level that may require international help. The euro’s yesterday’s growth (EUR/USD strengthened to $1.3147) is nothing but a short covering. Early Tuesday the common currency trades in the $1.3090 area. Resistance lies at $1.3147 (yesterday's top), $1.3264 and $1.3380 (April 2 maximum), while support – at $1.2994 (yesterday’s low), $1.2880 and $1.2754. Moving below yesterday’s bottom or above yesterday’s high may define a trend of the euro. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-17/17327-euro-down-europes-data Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 "Japan pledged $60 bln to expand IMF’s firepower"(2012-04-17) Japan pledged $60 bln to expand IMF’s firepower Tuesday, April 17, 2012 - 07:30 Japan said today that it provide $60 billion in loans to the International Monetary Fund, which acts as a lender of last resort for governments, in order to increase the fund's financial firepower and stop the contagion with the euro zone debt crisis. Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi encouraged European authorities to take more action in return. The Fund wants to boost its funding by $600 billion. However, the IMF will face serious difficulties trying to secure firm commitments at meetings of the fund, the World Bank and the G20 this week: the US has showed reluctance to find troubled economies, while such nations as China, Brazil and Russia don’t rush to give commitments either. The IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde claimed last week that the fund may need less money as economic risks had subsided. Reuters reports that $400-$500 billion sum seems more likely. Euro zone countries have committed about $200 billion and other European Union nations an additional $50 billion. There was speculation that big US bank have been buying on behalf of the IMF over last 24 hours. This process may continue during the European and North American sessions. Image from sodahead.com Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-17/17330-japan-pledged-60-bln-expand-imfs-firepower Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 "Japan pledged $60 bln to expand IMF’s firepower"(2012-04-17) EUR/JPY: technical levels Tuesday, April 17, 2012 - 08:15 According to JPMorgan Chase technical analysts, the EUR/JPY is approaching to its support zone (104.25 -104 yen). On the Fibonacci chart, the 50% retracement between a January low and a March high lies at 104.24 yen. Analysts expect the currency pair to bounce from these levels. Strategists at Jyske Bank recommend selling EUR/JPY with a stop-loss at 107.52 yen. In their view, due to strong declines on Friday and Monday this is the first significant resistance for the pair. However, on a daily Ichimoku chart resistance is seen at 106.15-106.30 levels (above the cloud). Moreover, the RSI indicates divergence. Analysts see strong support in the 103.5-104 yen area. Chart. Daily EUR/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/1970-01-01/17331-eurjpy-technical-levels Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 "Key options expiring today"(2012-04-17) Key options expiring today Tuesday, April 17, 2012 - 09:15 Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3000, $1.3090, $1.3125 and $1.3150; GBP/USD: $1.5800 and $1.5815; EUR/GBP: 0.8200 and 0.8250; USD/JPY: 80.50, 80.75, 81.00 and 81.10; USD/CHF: 0.9265; AUD/USD: $1.0200, $1.0220, $1.0285, $1.0300, $1.0310, $1.0400. Photo Reuters Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-17/17334-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 "EUR/USD: updates "(2012-04-17) EUR/USD: updates Tuesday, April 17, 2012 - 10:45 Europe cheered the markets up with positive data: both German and European ZEW economic survey beat expectations, while Spanish and Greek auctions were successful enough. Spain sold 3.18 billion euro of 12- and 18-month debt out of targeted 2-3 billion euro. The yields were higher, but that wasn’t a surprise. Euro zone’s core CPI growth accelerated from 1.5% in February to 1.6% in March (y/y), while the headline CPI added 2.7% versus the forecast of 2.6%. At the same time, it seems that the market participants hurry to take profit. Nobody believes in euro ability to strengthen. EUR/USD posted daily maximum at $1.3172, but the retreated to the levels around $1.3145. It’s necessary to note though that the pair managed to stay above 100-day MA which is now playing the role of support. All in all, trading is quite volatile today. Euro will get chance to rise to $1.3380 (April 2 maximum), if it overcomes the recent highs in the $1.3210 zone. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-17/17335-eurusd-updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 "Pound up on CPI data"(2012-04-17) Pound up on CPI data Tuesday, April 17, 2012 - 11:00 The cable strengthened to $1.5953 level on Tuesday after the benign inflation figures were released. The March consumer price index (CPI) rose in line with expectations by 3.5% after increasing 3.4% the previous month, reducing concerns on further QE. Technical analysts at Commerzbank remain bearish on the GBP/USD prospects. In their view, the pair won’t break through the strong resistance at $1.6000. Resistance lies at $1.5985 (high Apr.12), $16000, $1.6063 (high Apr.2) and $1.6095 (high Nov.14), while support – at $1.5843 (200-day MA), $1.5836 (55-day MA), $1.5808 (low Apr.10) and $1.5801 (low Mar.26). This week watch out for important data on claimant count, Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes and monthly retail sales. The MPC “dove” Adam Posen will give a speech today. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-17/17336-pound-cpi-data Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 "Westpac: trading AUD/JPY"(2012-04-17) Westpac: trading AUD/JPY Tuesday, April 17, 2012 - 11:30 Analysts at Westpac Institutional Bank believe that Chinese authorities wouldn’t have widened yuan’s trading range unless they had expected national economy to recover in the second half of the year. The specialists say that in the longer term Australian dollar will benefit from better economic situation in China as the 2 economies have close trading connections. In the near term, however, Aussie’s rate will depend more on the RBA’s monetary policy. Westpac expects Australian central bank to cut borrowing costs in May, so AUD will get under negative pressure. According to the analysts, one should sell AUD/JPY around 83.50 targeting 81.20 (200-day MA) and stopping at 84.60 as Japanese yen will enjoy safe haven demand as a refuge from European woes. Chart. Daily AUD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-17/17339-westpac-trading-audjpy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 "Barclays Capital: bullish view on AUD/USD"(2012-04-17) Barclays Capital: bullish view on AUD/USD Tuesday, April 17, 2012 - 12:30 Analysts at Barclays Capital expect Australian dollar to strengthen versus its New Zealand’s counterpart. The specialists draw investors’ attention to relative commodity price performance in recent weeks and the fact that Australia will benefit more from growth in the US and China. In addition, BarCap thinks that the market is already pricing in a 90% probability of a 25-bp RBA rate cut on 1 May and an aggressive 80bp of cuts by year-end. From the technical point of view, Aussie’s advance above $1.2670 will make the pair AUD/NZD rise to $1.2725 and $1.2765/70 on the short squeeze. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-17/17346-barclays-capital-bullish-view-audusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 "USD/CAD plummets after BoC statement"(2012-04-17) USD/CAD plummets after BoC statement Tuesday, April 17, 2012 - 13:45 The USD/CAD reached a 2-week low after the Bank of Canada announced the overnight rate remains at 1.0%, but said in its statement that easy monetary policy may be coming to an end. The central bank expects the Canada’s economy to grow by 2.4% in both 2012 and 2013. "In light of the reduced slack in the economy and firmer underlying inflation, some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy stimulus may become appropriate," the BoC said. USD/CAD plummeted to C$0.9889, with the support at C$0.9867 (low Mar.20) and C$0.9859 (low Mar.19). The resistance lies at C$0.9958 (prior intraday support), C$1.0031 (high Apr.16) and C$1.0051 (high Apr.11). The BOC statement Chart. H4 USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-17/17349-usdcad-plummets-after-boc-statement Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 "GBP: watch MPC Meeting Minutes"(2012-04-18) GBP: watch MPC Meeting Minutes Wednesday, April 18, 2012 - 06:45 On Wednesday the Bank of England will publish the minutes of MPC meeting, held on April, 5, when the policymakers agreed to leave its QE program 325 billion pounds. The previous minutes released on March 21 showed two policymakers still think additional QE is required. The March consumer price index (CPI) rose in line with expectations by 3.5% after increasing 3.4% the previous month, reducing concerns on further QE. BNP Paribas: The surprisingly dovish minutes put the GBP in harm’s way. The April minutes may highlight a different tune. Societe Generale: As UK economic data have been a bit less worrying of late, the need for further QE may have lessened. Any low vote in favor of further QE would be GBP-positive versus AUD. Bank of America: The pound needs to climb above $1.5986 (the right shoulder of the so-called head-and-shoulders pattern) to invalidate further weakness. Analysts at BMO Capital believe that if today’s data come out more dovish, the sterling will weaken. In this case analysts recommend selling the cable with a stop at $1.6025 and a target of $1.5650. Today also watch out for important labor market data: the claimant count (forecast 6.6K in March vs. 7.2K in Feb.) and the unemployment rate (expected to remain at 8.4%). Chart. H4 GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-18/17352-gbp-watch-mpc-meeting-minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 "The IMF: Australia's in the forefront"(2012-04-18) The IMF: Australia's in the forefront Wednesday, April 18, 2012 - 07:45 According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Australia has the strongest economy in the developed world is expected to outperform the other countries for at least the next two years. The IMF also forecasts the Australia's unemployment rate to remain low at 5.2% in both 2012 and 2013. Australia’s economy is expected to grow by 3% this year on the back of easing economic woes in Europe and the U.S. However, the economy may be hurt in case if tensions in the Middle-East lead to new commodity price hikes. "The IMF's confirmation of Australia's strong economic fundamentals - with solid growth and low unemployment - further underscores the importance of returning the budget to surplus, and giving the Reserve Bank maximum flexibility to cut interest rates if it considers that is necessary," the deputy prime minister of Australia Wayne Swan said. The IMF: World Economic outlook Photo by Robyn Mackenzie Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-18/17356-imf-australias-forefront Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 "Germany sells 2-years with record low yield"(2012-04-18) Germany sells 2-years with record low yield Wednesday, April 18, 2012 - 10:30 Germany sold today 4.206 billion euro in 2-year bonds out of the 5.0 billion euro target. Average yield was at record low of 0.14% from previous 0.31%. Rabobank: “Investor demand for core paper remains firm with the background threat of crisis tensions ratcheting yet higher underpinning an overriding desire for capital preservation”. Investors were watching the sale with great attention after the unsuccessful launch of a new 10-year German bond last week. In secondary markets German yields remain very low as the nation’s debt is still perceived as a refuge. Photo by Markus Schreiber/AP Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-18/17360-germany-sells-2-years-record-low-yield Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 "EUR/CHF: Will the SNB rise the 1.20 floor?"(2012-04-18) EUR/CHF: Will the SNB rise the 1.20 floor? Wednesday, April 18, 2012 - 12:45 Swiss ZEW economic expectations index released today indicates optimism (2.1 in March vs. 0.0 in Feb.). Due to this month’s unexpected improvement some analysts expect franc to strengthen. Moreover, franc may remain “safe haven” from Europe’s debt woes which have resurfaced: demand for Swiss assets remains high even despite the negative 6-month bill yield. HSBC thinks, for example, that all attempts of the SNB to weaken the Swiss franc won’t work. On the previous SNB meetings, Swiss policymakers disappointed the market by not raising the EUR/CHF floor from the current boundary of 1.20, provoking a steep appreciation of the franc to this level. Analysts at UBS claim that if EUR/CHF does test 1.20 again, stronger intervention by the SNB would be welcomed by the investors who remain nervous of a broader decline through the figure. Market expects the floor to be lifted to 1.25 francs at least. EUR/CHF strengthened today to 1.2029 (above the Ichimoku cloud on the H4 chart). Watch the release of Swiss trade balance for March on April 24. Trade surplus increased from 1.5 billion francs in January to 2.68 billion francs in February. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-18/17369-eurchf-will-snb-rise-120-floor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 "Commerzbank: USD/CAD technical"(2012-04-18) Commerzbank: USD/CAD technical Wednesday, April 18, 2012 - 13:15 The pair USD/CAD is trading almost unchanged from today’s opening price. Analysts at Commerzbank think that “Tuesday’s sharp drop to 0.9864 looks to be impulsive, however, thus increasing the odds of support at 0.9841 (March 1 minimum) giving way within the weeks ahead, provided, of course that 1.0052 (April 11 maximum) continues to cap”. The specialists claim that if USD/CAD closes below 0.9842, it will slide to 0.9786 and then 0.9726. If the pair closes the day above 1.0052, it will be able to start rising to 2011-12 resistance line at 1.0161. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-18/17371-commerzbank-usdcad-technical Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 "USD/CHF: technical comments"(2012-04-18) USD/CHF: technical comments Wednesday, April 18, 2012 - 13:45 The currency pair USD/CHF is moving sideways since the beginning of January, creating a triangle. The cross is clamped between the 50- and 100-day MAs. Moreover, on a daily Ichimoku chart Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen are lying horizontally in the Cloud, also pointing at a flat market. The trend may be breached both on the upside and on the downside. Breakthrough the levels 0.9330 and 0.8930 will confirm the reversal. The pair USD/CHF climbed to 0.9197 today, finding the nearest resistance at 0.9229 (100-day MA), 0.9251 (high Apr.16) and 0.9254 (high Mar.16). Support lies at 0.9120 (21-day MA), 0.9092 (low Apr.13) and 0.9050 (hourly high Apr.3). As for the news, Thomas Jordan was named as permanent president of the Swiss Central Bank today. He became interim SNB chairman on Jan. 9 when his predecessor Philipp Hildebrand resigned after a trading scandal involving his wife. Swiss ZEW economic expectations index released today indicates optimism (2.1 in March vs. 0.0 in Feb.). Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/1970-01-01/17372-usdchf-technical-comments Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 "Yen down on BOJ comments"(2012-04-19) Yen down on BOJ comments Thursday, April 19, 2012 - 06:30 The yen weakened today against most of its peers on the back of the Bank of Japan’s officials “dovish” comments and the unexpectedly wide trade deficit. On Wednesday the BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said in the central bank is “committed” to adding monetary stimulus. Deputy Governor Kiyohiko Nishimura confirmed that the bank is ready to implement additional easing if necessary. The next BOJ meeting will be held on April, 27. Japan posted a trade deficit of 82.6 billion yen in March from a revised surplus of 29.4 billion yen in the previous month and forecasted 223.2 billion yen deficit. Mitsubishi UFJ: Markets are pricing in additional easing by the BOJ. A trade deficit is a negative catalyst for the yen. The USD/JPY is strengthening for the third consecutive day and climbed to 81.51 yen, after reaching 81.57 yesterday, the highest level since April 10. The EUR/JPY rose to 106.92 yen today. Chart. Daily EUR/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-19/17374-yen-down-boj-comments Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 "Wells Fargo: bearish outlook on EUR/USD"(2012-04-19) Wells Fargo: bearish outlook on EUR/USD Thursday, April 19, 2012 - 07:45 According to analysts at Wells Fargo, the euro will reach 1.24 against the dollar by early 2013, and continue keep falling to 1.22 from there. In their view, the debt problems are flourishing and economic activity in the region remains weak. Analysts expect the ECB to cut rates to stimulate the economy. Moreover, Wells Fargo analysts note that the technical forecast on EUR/USD also remains bearish (20-day MA lies below the 50-day MA). Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-19/17376-wells-fargo-bearish-outlook-eurusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 "Commerzbank: trading EUR/GBP"(2012-04-19) Commerzbank: trading EUR/GBP Thursday, April 19, 2012 - 08:00 Analysts at Commerzbank are bearish on EUR/GBP in the long term and recommend entering the trade at current levels with a stop at 0.8277 (April high) and targeting at 0.8067 (2010 low). On Wednesday the cross closed the day below 0.8221 (Jan. 9 low), reaching a new 20-month low. According to analysts, the market is viewed as having recently broken down from a 3 month consolidation. Chart. Daily EUR/GBP Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-19/17378-commerzbank-trading-eurgbp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 "Key options expiring today"(2012-04-19) Key options expiring today Thursday, April 19, 2012 - 12:15 Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). EUR/USD: $1.3025, $1.3070, $1.3100, $1.3210 (large); EUR/JPY: 106.25; USD/JPY: 81.00, 81.15, 81.25, 81.50; GBP/USD: $1.5960, $1.5990, $1.6000; EUR/GBP: 0.8175, 0.8200; AUD/USD: $1.0300, $1.0415, $1.0435, $1.0450; USD/CHF: 0.9150. Photo Reuters Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-19/17382-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 "EUR/USD: economic news and comments"(2012-04-19) EUR/USD: economic news and comments Thursday, April 19, 2012 - 13:45 Spain and France conducted bond auctions today. Spain sold 2.54 billion euro in 2- and 10-year bonds slightly exceeding the planned volume. Borrowing costs rose as the nation’s struggling to meet deficit targets. France borrowed 8 billion euro ($10.5 billion). The yields were higher due to the risks associated with approaching French presidential election. The 10-year spread between Spanish, French, Italian bonds and German ones widened as the effects of the LTRO conducted by the ECB is fading. In the US jobless claims also posted the reading higher than expected: 386K vs. the forecast of 370K for the week to April 14. Earnings reports were more optimistic: Bank of America reported first-quarter earnings that beat expectations as well as Travelers and Verizon Communications. EUR/USD keeps trading in range between $1.3030 and $1.3210, within which it settled after the slide from $1.3380/3250 in early April. Analysts at UBS are bearish on the single currency. In their view, support for the pair lies in the $1.2974/54 zone (below these levels bearish momentum will increase), while resistance is situated at $1.3213. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-19/17384-eurusd-economic-news-and-comments Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 "Standard Chartered: on ECB and the Fed’s rates"(2012-04-19) Standard Chartered: on ECB and the Fed’s rates Thursday, April 19, 2012 - 14:00 The baseline scenario of analysts at Standard Chartered is that the European Central Bank will remain on hold until the first quarter of 2014. The specialists say that if the ECB does decide to cut one more time, it will reduce borrowing costs by 25 bps by the end of June and then remain on hold for the rest of this year and in 2013. As for the United States, the bank expects disappointing data. “Weak income growth in Q1 should result in disappointing consumer spending data in Q2 which will weigh on growth. Real earnings were up just 0.2% m/m in January and February, and the increase seen in total earnings growth has been as a result of an increase in the number of people working and hours worked, rather than actual wages. There is little evidence of consumer spending being fuelled by credit growth. The decline in core durable goods reinforces the idea that the business community is reluctant to make additional capital investment.” Economists think that the Fed to announce further QE by the end of the second quarter. Image from theglobeandmail.com Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-19/17385-standard-chartered-ecb-and-feds-rates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 "Danske Bank, MIG Bank: buy GBP/JPY"(2012-04-19) Danske Bank, MIG Bank: buy GBP/JPY Thursday, April 19, 2012 - 14:45 Analysts at Danske Bank recommend buying British pound versus Japanese yen as the British and Japanese central banks have 2 different approaches to monetary policy: while the Bank of Japan keeps trying to weaken the national currency, the latest minutes of the Bank of England suggest that the policymakers are moving away from further easing as UK economy is performing better than expected. In addition, there are many comments from the BOJ official which are weighting yen. One should also mention that Japan posted a trade deficit of 82.6 billion yen in March from a revised surplus of 29.4 billion yen in the previous month and forecasted deficit of 223.2 billion yen. The technical picture for GBP/JPY is also optimistic enough. The pair bounced up from bullish Ichimoku Cloud and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from this year’s advance aiming at resistance around 133.30 yen (maximums of April 2, March 27 and 22). Analysts at MIG Bank say that if sterling gets above 133.49 yen, it will be able to follow an uptrend to 160.00 yen. The specialists say that on the downside, below 126.55, GBP/JPY will risk declining to 121.69 and 120 yen (psychological level). Chart. Daily GBP/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-19/17386-danske-bank-mig-bank-buy-gbpjpy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 "Economic events to watch today"(2012-04-20) Economic events to watch today Friday, April 20, 2012 - 06:00 Data to watch today: • Europe: April German Ifo Business Climate index is forecasted to decrease to 109.6 from 109.8 in March. In addition, there will be the annual spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund/World Bank (through April 22) and the extended deadline for some Greek foreign-law bond holdouts (to tender their bonds and for second leg of debt-restructuring accord). The pair EUR/USD remains in range between $1.3050 and $1.3200. There are stops below and above these levels. • Britain: March retail sales data is expected to show an appreciable 0.4% growth after suffering a sharp decline in February. Retail sales volumes fell 0.8% in February after rising 0.3% in January and 0.7% in December. “If March retail sales do see significant growth, it will significantly boost the likelihood that overall consumer spending was positive in the first quarter and helped the overall economy return to growth after GDP contracted by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2011”, analysts at IHS Global Insight say. The pair GBP/USD is rising for the fifths day in a row. Yesterday sterling reached the maximal level since November 2011 at $1.6078. • Canada: the growth pace of Core CPI may decline from 0.4% in February to 0.3% in March. The nation’s annualized headline inflation rate is expected to drop to 2.0% in March from 2.6% in February. The data will provide more information about inflationary pressures in the country's economy, and could help justify the recent hawkish tone from the Bank of Canada. The pair USD/CAD keeps trading between 0.9845 and 1.0050 within staying in this range since the end of January. Image from http://cold-fusion.ca Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/1970-01-01/17388-economic-events-watch-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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