internationallove Posted April 2, 2012 Author Share Posted April 2, 2012 "Standard Chartered: ECB may have to conduct another LTRO"(2012-04-02) Standard Chartered: ECB may have to conduct another LTRO Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank expect further contraction of euro zone’s GDP. In their view, there are 3 main concerns: austerity measures, credit squeeze and high oil prices. The specialists underline that confidence isn’t back and credit isn’t flowing into the real economy (the money, which the ECB provided the region’s banks through LTRO, hasn’t reached households and companies). The unemployment rate will likely continue to rise (10.8% in February). The bank claims that “the ‘true’ firewall remains the European Central Bank”. The ECB’s 1 trillion for banks is “the magic number the market wanted to see.” With 2 rounds of loans committed already, “if the crisis escalates, we think the ECB will have no other option but to provide another”. According to Standard Chartered, EUR/USD will weaken due to the growth differential between the United States and Europe. Euro will be also under pressure due to the ECB’s liquidity increase. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-02/17128-standard-chartered-ecb-may-have-conduct-another-lrto Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 2, 2012 Author Share Posted April 2, 2012 "The outlook for RBA’s actions" (2012-04-02) The outlook for RBA’s actions The Reserve bank of Australia meets tomorrow for an interest rates decision. The majority of the economists expect the central bank to leave the rates changed. Here’s more detailed into on the issue and the expectations of future RBA’s moves. Outcome Looking Ahead ANZ Hold Cut in May NAB Hold Cut in May JP Morgan Hold Hold in 2012 HSBC Hold Cut likely in May TD Securities Hold Two cuts in May/June UBS Hold Hold in 2012 StanChart Hold Westpac Hold Two cuts in May/July Citigroup Hold Cut in May CommSec Hold Cut likely in May Deutsche Bank Hold Cut in May AMP Capital Hold Cut in May Moody's Hold Hold in coming months Barclays Hold Expect more easing St George Hold Cut likely in May Macquarie Hold Cut in May Nomura Hold Hold in 2012 RBC Capital Hold Two cuts in 2012 Goldman Sachs Hold Cut in May RBA Hold Two cuts in May/June Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-02/17130-outlook-rbas-actions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 2, 2012 Author Share Posted April 2, 2012 "RBS: trading recommendations on EUR/GBP " (2012-04-02) RBS: trading recommendations on EUR/GBP The RBS analysts recommend going short on EUR/GBP at current levels, targeting at 0.8000 and with a stop on a 2-day close above 0.8510. The reason why the specialists propose such trade is that the common currency is extremely vulnerable to any market pressure. Credit spreads narrowed due to LTRO, but the market sentiment toward financials remains unchanged. Chart. Daily EUR/GBP Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-02/17131-rbs-trading-recommendations-eurgbp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 2, 2012 Author Share Posted April 2, 2012 "RBS: trading recommendations on AUD/USD"(2012-04-02) RBS: trading recommendations on AUD/USD Specialists at RBS recommend buying the Aussie against the dollar, potentially targeting at 1.0751 and stopping at 1.0290. The support lies at 1.0337/54 and at 1.0238 levels, whereas the resistance is placed at 1.0496 (previous support, now resistance), 1.0612 (76.4% retracement of the previous range), 1.0691 and 1.0856 (2012 maximum). According to RBS analysts, going long on AUD/USD may be one of the best trading strategies of April 2012, because the Aussie is strengthening every April at an average of circa 4%. Moreover, the slowing of a downside momentum in the MACD seems to be a positive sign. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-02/17134-rbs-trading-recommendations-audusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 3, 2012 Author Share Posted April 3, 2012 "GBP/USD: analysts’ forecasts"(2012-04-03) GBP/USD: analysts’ forecasts According to market strategists at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, nowadays the U.K. currency is on the rise due to high merger-and-acquisition activity in the country, demand for Britain's triple-A bonds, and rising stock prices. However, analysts at Shelter Harbor Capital say from the $1.6000 level problems for the U.K. economy will start; therefore the demand on the sterling is expected to contract. Strategists recommend going short on the pound against the greenback at $1.5991 level with a stop at $1.6100 and a target of $1.5600. Specialists at Westpac Institutional Bank also do not believe the sterling is a reliable currency today, considering the fact that two members of Britain's Monetary Policy Committee are in favor of further QE. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-03/17136-gbpusd-analysts-forecasts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 3, 2012 Author Share Posted April 3, 2012 "CMC Markets: EUR/USD, USD/CHF and AUD outlook "(2012-04-03) CMC Markets: EUR/USD, USD/CHF and AUD outlook Analysts at CMC Markets believe that EUR/USD will fall to $1.20 over the next 12 months. IN their view, USD/CHF would rise from 0.90 to 0.92 in a year. “There was a concern that the Swiss National Bank would not tolerate a stronger Swiss franc and that turned out to be the case.” The specialists expect EUR/CHF floor to hold in the short to medium term. According to CMC Markets, Australian dollar is significantly overvalued and could weaken this year. “There will be further rate cuts out of Australia over the coming months because of deteriorating economic data and a possible slowdown in China.” The economists don’t mean the hard landing scenario in China, but think that demand out of China will diminish for Australian commodities and that will drive flows out of Aussie. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-03/17139-cmc-markets-eurusd-usdchf-and-aud-outlook Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 3, 2012 Author Share Posted April 3, 2012 <p> </p> <div> "BarCap: euro expected to decline "(2012-04-03)</div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div><div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>BarCap: euro expected to decline</div> <div></div> <div> </div> <div>Analysts at Barclays Capital advise investors to watch ECB policy rate press conference on Wednesday (14:30 GMT) for the hints on whether the central bank will move away from full allotment* – this question should be resolved by the end of June. If there are signs of normalization, euro may get some support. Never the less, the economists don’t regard such outcome as very likely.</div> <div> </div> <div>The specialists think that the single currency is likely to get under pressure. The bank draws the market’s attention to the fact that euro area’s Manufacturing PMI remained below 50 in March – not a good sign. </div> <div> </div> <div>According to BarCap, although German economic growth will improve the region’s economic outlook, for now its economic strength is being more than offset by weakness elsewhere. So, despite the fact that the bank expects German industrial production (released on Thursday, 12:00 GMT) to exceed forecasts posting the reading of 0.3% (m/m) vs. the consensus projection of -0.1%, the analysts don’t think that this would lead to the steady growth of the single currency.</div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> Chart. Daily EUR/USD </div><div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-03/17140-barcap-euro-expected-decline</div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div></div> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 3, 2012 Author Share Posted April 3, 2012 "AUD: RBA rate statement lowered Aussie"(2012-04-03) AUD: RBA rate statement lowered Aussie Australian currency declined against all of its 16 major counterparts. The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate intact at 4.25%, coming up with expectations. However, according to the chairman Glenn Stevens, the RBA board decided to see forthcoming key data on prices to reassess its outlook for inflation, before considering a further step to ease monetary policy. The release of the first-quarter CPI is scheduled on April 24 (5:30 GMT). According to the Melbourne Institute, the nation’s consumer prices rose 1.8% last month from a year earlier, the slowest pace since October 2009. United Overseas Bank: The tone of the RBA’s statement was quite dovish. Interest-rate expectations are going to fall; this will continue to weigh on the Aussie. Moreover, retail sales rose 0.2% in February, below the forecasts and the January print, both at 0.3%. In addition, on May 10 (10:30 GMT) the annual budget release is expected. Prime Minister Julia Gillard said today the government will deliver a “tough budget”, when the Treasury presents a spending plan for the coming fiscal year. Societe Generale: If the signal from the budget is deep fiscal cuts, there is no option for the RBA but to ease monetary policy to accommodate tighter fiscal conditions. On the other hand, China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, posted upbeat figures today. China’s non-manufacturing PMI climbed to 58.0 in March from 57.3 in February. AUD/USD is currently trading around $1.0380, below the 50-, 100- and 200-day MA. Most analysts forecast the bearish pressure on the Aussie to continue. The support for the currency pair lies at $1.0370, $1.0355, $1.0335, $1.0305 (local minimum) and $1.0260, whereas the resistance – at $1.0415, $1.0450, $1.0485, $1.0510 and $1.0600. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-03/17141-aud-rba-rate-statement-lowered-aussie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 4, 2012 Author Share Posted April 4, 2012 "BarCap: euro expected to decline "(2012-04-04) Strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch recommend going short on the euro versus the Aussie, entering the trade at the current levels with a stop at 1.3050 and a medium-term target of 1.2200. Analysts believe the Australian dollar is a profitable bet these days: copper prices are rising, and Australia is the major copper exporter. Moreover, April is the strongest month of the year for the Aussie historically. The common currency prospects, however, are not so clear-cut. The European bank stocks are weakening and interest rate spreads between German and Spanish bonds are widening. One can’t say with certainty that European economic unease will not resume in the nearest future. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-04/17149-merrill-lynch-trading-recommendations-euraud Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 4, 2012 Author Share Posted April 4, 2012 "Dollar rises on FOMC minutes "(2012-04-04) The greenback strengthened against a basket of currencies on the backdrop of the release of the minutes of the FOMC’s meeting on March 13. The March minutes show decreased urgency to add stimulus with no sentiment expressed for additional easing unless the economic conditions worsen. The Fed also affirmed its plan, first announced in January, to hold low interest rates through late 2014. Rochford Capital: The U.S. monetary policy will stay status quo for the foreseeable future. The EUR/USD is a bit of a sell at these levels in the short term. However, the policymakers pointed the labor market still remains weak. They expect the unemployment to remain high till the end of 2012. U.S. factory orders in February increased 1.3%, offsetting a similar decline in January, though were below the consensus forecast (1.5%). Economic data to watch Today at 13:15 GMT the ADP non-farm employment indicator is expected to show a 206,000 increase in the number of employed people during March versus a gain of 216,000 in February, the biggest in two months. The weekly number of unemployment claims, released tomorrow (13:30 GMT), is forecasted to decline to 355,000 against 359,000. Non-manufacturing PMI release is scheduled on Wednesday (15:00 GMT). EUR/USD The currency pair declined today to $1.370 level. Economists expect EUR/USD to trade at $1.310 by the end of 2012. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-04/17151-dollar-rises-fomc-minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 4, 2012 Author Share Posted April 4, 2012 "Standard Chartered: comments on the euro "(2012-04-04) • Despite the slight signs of improvement in Europe, economic data, coming from euro zone, show recession is set to continue. European manufacturing PMIs (March) show that only 3 countries performed well last month: UK: 52.1 (an 8-month high) Austria: 51.5 (a 3-month low) Ireland: 51.5 (a 10-month high) Netherlands: 49.6 (a 2-month low) Germany: 48.4 (a 3-month low) Italy: 47.9 (a 6-month high) France: 46.7 (a 33-month low) Spain: 44.5 (a 3-month low) Greece: 41.3 (a 3-month high) • In Q2 the euro may stop appreciating versus the other key currencies due to following reasons: - Flow drivers for EUR strength are no longer so supportive - Forthcoming elections in France and Greece may resume the crisis. ECB may cut the rates by 25 bps to 0.75% in Q2 - Oil price growth is slowing, so support from oil-related FX reserve diversification is expected to decrease • The latest IMM Commitments of Traders data showed that non-commercial accounts increased net short positions by 7,194 on the week to 89,180. Within this, 'leveraged funds' (hedge funds and trading models) increased their net shorts by 6,017 to 80,577; and asset managers reduced their net long positions by 5,648 to 8,148. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-04/17156-standard-chartered-comments-euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 4, 2012 Author Share Posted April 4, 2012 "Commerzbank: bearish on NZD/USD"(2012-04-04) Analysts at Commerzbank believe that the decline of New Zealand’s dollar versus its US counterpart may accelerate in the medium term. The specialists note that NZD/USD was affected by the unexpected trade deficit in Australia and the speculation about China’s economic slowdown. The bank underlines that kiwi failed to overcome resistance at $0.8289 (March 19 maximum) and expect the pair to slide to $0.7969, $0.7965 and $0.7922. According to Commerzbank, in the longer term NZD/USD risks to fall to $0.7460/7369 (December 15, 2011 minimum/November 25, 2011 minimum) as long as it’s trading below $0.8471 (February maximum). Chart. Daily NZD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-04/17157-commerzbank-bearish-nzdusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 4, 2012 Author Share Posted April 4, 2012 "Draghi: Upside inflation risks seen prevailing in 2012 "(2012-04-04) According to Mario Draghi, the region would undergo a moderate recovery over the course of the year, while inflation in the bloc would remain above 2% for the rest of the year. However, Draghi claims that ECB possesses all the necessary tools to tackle potential inflation risks. He expects the inflation to fall back below 2% in 2013 and to remain in line with price stability. The ECB President repeated several times that downside economic risks prevail and he called talk of an exit strategy from LTO premature. Such comments harmed EUR/USD which fell below the 100-day MA to $1.3105. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-04/17160-draghi-upside-inflation-risks-seen-prevailing-2012 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 5, 2012 Author Share Posted April 5, 2012 "GBP/USD: technical comments "(2012-04-05) GBP/USD: technical comments On Tuesday, April 3, British pound slipped versus the greenback breaking below the short-term uptrend support line affected by the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. On the weekly chart pound returned below the 200-week MA after testing higher levels. The pair found support in the $1.5840/30 area (March 20 & 28 minimums, 200 MA on H4 chart and 50% Fibonacci retracement of sterling’s advance from March minimum at $1.5600 to April 2 maximum at $1.6062). Chart. H4 GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/17162-gbpusd-technical-comments Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 5, 2012 Author Share Posted April 5, 2012 "EUR/USD: analysts’ comments "(2012-04-05) EUR/USD: analysts’ comments Bank of the West (California): EUR/USD will test its recent trading range $1.30/1.35 on the downside. As the expectations of QE3 in the US have receded, the market’s attention has turned to Spain which is struggling with the deficit targets. KTB Securities: The debt itself is not an issue as long as there is sufficient enough (economic) growth to support it, but Spain's weak growth outlook does not paint a pretty picture. ANZ: If the peripheral governments cannot make the necessary reforms, in the long term that’s a negative for euro. Citigroup: The market has been locked into a range because there was no dominant FX theme. Now it looks as if higher US rates and concern on Spanish debt could be the short-term drivers, opening up room for higher volatility BBH: Based on current spot and volatility levels, indicative pricing suggests almost a 50% chance of testing the mid-Jan low near $1.26 here in Q2. Euro faces strong resistance at $1.3380 – this level has been tested several times so far but the pair failed to break above it. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/17166-eurusd-analysts-comments Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 "Mizuho: short-term bearish on USD/JPY"(2012-04-09) Analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank believe that the greenback may drift lower versus Japanese yen sliding to 80.00 in the next 2 weeks. “When we look at the amount of short positions in the yen, we see that they really have not decreased. Their volume is large. At some point, these positions will be closed, leading to an increase in the yen. Employment data can serve as an impetus for this,” say the specialists. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-09/17211-mizuho-short-term-bearish-usdjpy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 "Ifr Markets: option expiration for today"(2012-04-09) Analysts at Ifr Markets, key analytical data provider, claim that today the following options expire: EUR/USD: $1.3400, $1.3225, $1.3300, $1.3500, $1.3315. USD/JPY: 82.25, 84.00 83.15, 83.00. EUR/JPY: 108.00. AUD/JPY: 83.75. AUD/USD: $1.0200, $1.0300. Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Photo REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-09/17213-ifr-markets-option-expiration-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 "USD/JPY down on U.S. jobs figures"(2012-04-09) The greenback touched a one-month low versus the yen on Monday on the back of last week's lower-than-expected U.S. labor market figures. Investors are worried that the Fed may need more monetary stimulus to support the economy. In March non-farm payrolls rose by 120K versus 240K in February and far lower-than-forecasted 207K, demonstrating the smallest increase since October. The unemployment rate decreased slightly to 8.2% from 8.3%. Commonwealth Foreign Exchange: The question for the dollar is whether this is as viewed as an outlier in an otherwise improving trend in labor markets, or if it's viewed as enough to revive talk of another round of QE. At the very least it will keep the door open to additional policy easing, more so than before the number was released. Japan, however, showed the first current account surplus in two months in February (1.178 trillion yen, down 30.7% from a year earlier, but stronger, than forecasted). Exports stopped contracting thanks to robust demand in the U.S. and Southeast Asia. Early Monday the USD/JPY dropped as low as 81.19 yen on its lowest level since the beginning of March. The support for the dollar lies at 81.07 yen (a 38.2% retracement of its rally in Feb.-March), 80.59 yen (March 6 minimum), 80.25 yen (Feb.29 minimum) and 80.01 yen (Feb.28 minimum). The resistance levels for the pair are 82.56 yen (Apr.6 maximum), 82.88 yen (21-day MA) and the 82.99 (Apr.3 maximum). Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-09/17214-usdjpy-down-us-jobs-figures Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 "Saxo Bank: comments on euro, yen and franc"(2012-04-09) Analysts at Saxo Bank in London note that as the market’s focus shifts to Spain, the European Central Bank will face a lot of difficulties in the coming months. The specialists claim that for now the ECB did well to contain spikes in peripheral sovereign yields through its long-term refinancing operations (LTROs) in December 2011 and February this year. However, Saxo Bank warns that if the concerns about Spain keep mounting, it will be very hard for the ECB to calm the market alone: more political co-ordination will be needed. According to Saxo, French elections and new leadership will drive EUR/USD up, though the pair won’t be able to rise above $1.35/1.36, so a reversal downwards in this area’s expected. As for Japanese yen, the analysts say that yen’s decline “in the next few months, this yen move will be overshot, and we will see a bit of a consolidation in these carry trades, which will mean the yen consolidates robustly against several of these currencies.” Speaking about Swiss franc’s prospects, the economists say that the Swiss National bank is unlikely to raise EUR/CHF floor from 1.20 until the third quarter or even later. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-09/17215-saxo-bank-comments-euro-yen-and-franc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2012-04-09) Weekly GBP/USD British pound tested the levels above the Ichimoku Cloud last week, but then drifted lower and closed below Kumo. At the same time, the pair managed to find support at Tenkan-sen (1), so the bulls haven’t lost all chances to turn the situation in the short term to their benefit. The pair also has some support of the uptrend line connecting January and March minimums. However, the Turning line stopped moving up and switched to the horizontal mode following Kijun-sen (2) and pointing at sideways trend. Kumo isn’t wide, but still bearish (3). We are looking forward to consolidation in the coming weeks. The ability of the bulls to bring the prices above the Cloud will be decisive for the future dynamics of GBP/USD. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD On the daily chart the prices breached the Turning line (1), but were supported by the Standard line (2) and the upper border of the rising Ichimoku Cloud. On the one hand, the situation looks stable: Tenkan and Kijun have so far formed “golden cross” which should be strong enough as the lines intersected above Kumo. On the other hand, Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen became horizontal and the Cloud has dangerously narrowed. On the downside, if GBP/USD breaches support of the Kijun and enters the Cloud, it will likely slide to the bottom of Kumo. On the upside, if after a few days of consolidation sterling manages to rise above Tenkan, it will get chance to strengthen to the maximums of the early April. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-09/17216-ichimoku-weekly-forecast-gbpusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 "EUR/USD: prospects remain unclear"(2012-04-09) On Monday, April 9, activity on the European markets remains weak due to Easter holidays in Germany, France, Switzerland, Italy and Great Britain. Given the rising Spanish bonds yield and increasing uncertainty about the country’s prospects, the future of the euro doesn't look bright. On the other hand, data on U.S. labor market, released on Friday, also seems to be negative (non-farm payrolls rose by 120K versus the expected 207K). However, most analysts believe the U.S. labor market data won’t have a significant effect on the market. BNP Paribas: The NFP data are quite comforting, since the cuts that occurred in March are very likely to be reversed afterwards. SunbirdFX: The euro may strengthen from the $1.300 strong support level to $1.315 or break the Head & Shoulders pattern lying above the support and slide to $1.280. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-09/17220-eurusd-prospects-remain-unclear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 10, 2012 Author Share Posted April 10, 2012 "The outlook for AUD/USD"(2012-04-10) Today’s dynamics On the upside Australian dollar was helped by Bernanke’s comments that American economy is far from a complete recovery which was taken by the market as the sign of more easing coming, especially after payrolls increased less than expected in March. In addition, Chinese data released today has positively surprised the market: the nation posted $5.35-billion trade surplus last month vs. the forecast of $3.15-billion deficit (Bloomberg). There was also a private report which showed that business confidence in Australia rebounded. On the downside Aussie was discouraged (especially against yen) after the Bank of Japan kept the monetary policy unchanged, while the market has been pricing in more easing. Asian stocks fell and Australia’s bonds surged driving the yields to the lowest since February 7. Technical levels The pair AUD/USD keeps trading within downtrend channel aiming to $1.0145 (January 9 minimum). Resistance: $1.0355 (today’s maximum) and $1.0462 (April 3 maximum). Support: $1.0043 (December 29 minimum) and 0.9865 (December 15 minimum). Data to watch Barclays Capital: - Australian employment data (April 12): Barclays’ forecast is employment change of 0K and unemployment rate of 5.3%. Any sign of weakness in labor market would likely add to the concerns about domestic economy and additional AUD negative. - Australian CPI figures (April 23). The RBA opened the door for further easing at next meeting in May and the data releases mentioned above will determine the central bank’s decision. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-10/17226-outlook-audusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 10, 2012 Author Share Posted April 10, 2012 "Bank's forecasts for FX majors "(2012-04-10) Bank's forecasts for FX majors Data were submitted on April 5 Source: FX Week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 10, 2012 Author Share Posted April 10, 2012 "Commerzbank: comments on EUR/JPY "(2012-04-10) Commerzbank: comments on EUR/JPY Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the single currency may rebound versus Japanese yen from support in the 105.93/65 area (200-day MA, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of EUR/JPY’s advance in 2012). There’s also an upper border of the Ichimoku Cloud at 106.15 yen. The specialists think that the pair may rise to resistance at 108.07/65 from where it will start suffering from negative pressure. In their view, euro’s sell off may begin at 111.13 (April 2 maximum) and the pair may decline to the lower border of the Cloud at 103.50. http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/April2012/10_04_12/daily_eurjpy.gif Chart. Daily EUR/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-10/17235-commerzbank-comments-eurjpy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 10, 2012 Author Share Posted April 10, 2012 "The banks recommend selling euro "(2012-04-10) The banks recommend selling euro Danske Bank: sell EUR/USD at $1.3097, target $1.3004 and stop at $1.3169. Commerzbank: sell EUR/USD at $1.3350, target $1.3025 and lower stops from $1.3415 to $1.3355. The pair has been trading in a very volatile way today. Data from France and Germany wasn’t bad, but Sentix Investor Confidence was disappointing with -14.7 in April from -8.2 in March. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-10/17236-banks-recommend-selling-euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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