internationallove Posted March 22, 2012 Author Share Posted March 22, 2012 "Yen strengthened: analysts’ comments "(2012-03-22) Yen strengthened: analysts’ comments On Thursday yen went up against other major currencies on the backdrop of the unexpected positive data on Japan’s export. The trade balance in February came to a surplus of 32.9 billion yen ($393 million) regardless the expected deficit of 120 billion yen. Exports dropped only by 2.7% from the previous year instead of the 6.5% forecasted decline. Forecast Pte: The data suggest that Japan’s economy is doing better. From a fundamental perspective, this is likely to be positive for the yen. J.P. Morgan analysts refer the yen’s strengthening to yesterday’s “bearish reversal” at USD/JPY chart where the dollar failed to break through the 84.10 resistance area. A breach below 82.85/65 support zone will prove the retracement. Brown Brothers Harriman: Momentum and other technical indicators warn the market is stretched, after the dollar has rallied more than 10% against the yen since the end of January. A break of the 83.00 area is needed to confirm a top is in place. Danske Bank analysts advised earlier to open long positions at 83.65 yen, targeting at 84.78 and with a stop-order at 83.01. USD/JPY is now trading at 83.14. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-22/17001-yen-strengthened-analysts-comments Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 22, 2012 Author Share Posted March 22, 2012 "Analysts’ comments on EUR/USD "(2012-03-22) Analysts’ comments on EUR/USD Rabobank: “The calming of markets in the last few months has come from policy measures, and the ability of policy makers to continue delivering supportive packages in large part stems from the strength of Germany. In the near-term the euro may be supported.” Euro-negative UBS: “We’re seeing a tussle between investors who think this is a risk-on environment and therefore euro-dollar should go higher, and those that recognize balance sheet expansion by the European Central Bank will likely weaken the euro. A growing number of investors are looking at “the relative policy stance” of the ECB and the Fed.” Pimco: the specialists are bullish on the greenback and expect EUR/USD to fall below $1.15 this year. On the odds of additional QE in the US RBS: if US economy evolves as outlined in the median FOMC forecast released in January, the odds of QE3 this year are about 0.25%. However, given the risks around that forecast, the (unconditional) probability of QE3 is much higher, around 40%. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-22/17002-analysts-comments-eurusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 22, 2012 Author Share Posted March 22, 2012 "BarCap: forecasts for AUD/USD revised down "(2012-03-22) BarCap: forecasts for AUD/USD revised down Analysts at Barclays Capital believe that in April AUD/USD will be trading around the current levels supported by high oil prices on the one side and capped by Chinese economic slowdown on the other side. As a result, the specialists think that Australian dollar will be trading sideways versus its US counterpart in range between $1.04 and $1.07. The bank revised down its forecasts for Aussie from $1.07 to $1.06 in a month, from $1.08 to $1.05 in 3 months and from $1.10 to $1.07 in a year. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-22/17003-barcap-forecasts-audusd-revised-down Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 22, 2012 Author Share Posted March 22, 2012 "Westpac: Australia’s exports will survive"(2012-03-22) Westpac: Australia’s exports will survive This week negative news Chinese manufacturing prospects put a downward pressure on the Australian currency because of the drop of demand on iron ore. China is the most important Australia’s trading partner. Westpac analysts, however, are convinced the outlook on the Aussie is not so dismal. They explain the investors missed the fact that Australian energy exports will increase significantly over a 5-year period. The return on enormous investments being made into liquefied natural gas plants (LNG) will start to be seen soon, taking into consideration the perpetual demand from Japan. LNG is expected to become Australia’s second largest commodity export by 2016-17. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-22/17009-westpac-australias-exports-will-survive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 "US dollar: up or down? "(2012-03-22) US dollar: up or down? US dollar has been the one of best performing G10 currencies so far. The greenback’s advance was driven by strong US economic figures (retail sales, labor market, Empire State index and the Philly manufacturing index) and rising Treasury yields. 15 out of 19 American banking giants successfully passed stress tests. Another QE in the near future seems unlikely. Many experts think that dollar is switching from being a safe haven (counter-cyclical) currency to a growth-related (pro-cyclical) one. However, in the periods of concerns about the global economy which will certainly occur more or less often, investors will still tend to abandon higher-yielding currencies for dollar perceiving the latter as a refuge. US economy looks much healthier than European and Japanese ones, so it stands out promising more profits than the euro area or Japan and more safety than Australia or Canada. Rising oil prices may contribute to dollar’s appreciation: firstly, expensive oil will increase inflation pressures – an argument against more QE, secondly, further oil price hike can hinder the global economic rebound encouraging safe-haven demand for dollar. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets warn that as investors start to expect better and better US economic performance, constant increase in the nation’s economic figures will be needed to satisfy the market’s appetite. As a result, traders may get quite disappointed if the further data from the United States doesn’t meet their expectations or if there is some bad news. Despite all the talk about the potential advance of US dollar, there are the risks associated with being bullish on the greenback. For example, strategists at Merk Investments remind that as Treasury yields rise, their prices decline. In less than a month the US 30-year bond has fallen by about 8.5% in value. This is a negative factor for those who already hold Treasuries. The specialists think that the emergence of Treasury bear market could cause foreign investors to liquidate their US debt holdings repatriating funds or investing them in non-dollar assets. In this case the greenback would weaken. Analysts at Goldman Sachs think that US dollar’s advance was due to only a few reasons. In their view, when a currency move is narrowly based, not much has to happen for it to change course. As a result, the specialists think that broad dollar’s weakness will resume. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-22/17011-us-dollar-or-down Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 "Goldman Sachs: trading USD/JPY "(2012-03-22) Goldman Sachs: trading USD/JPY Analysts at Goldman Sachs advise to sell USD/JPY. The currency pair may weaken to 79 yen because the Japanese currency may rebound after declining since the beginning of February to the middle of March. The idea is supported by the seasonal patterns as the financial year in the country is coming to an end and the unexpected improvement in Japan’s trade balance (a surplus of 32.9 billion yen against the forecasted deficit of 120 billion yen). If USD/JPY strengthens, strategists recommend closing the trade above 84.50 yen. Today the greenback is trading in the 82.86 area. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-23/17013-goldman-sachs-trading-usdjpy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 "SocGen: comments on AUD/USD "(2012-03-23) SocGen: comments on AUD/USD Analysts at Societe Generale point out that the pair AUD/USD has seemed exhausted since the beginning of March lagging all the other G10 currencies against US dollar. The bank thinks that Aussie has weakened as both domestic and external factors ran out of steam. The specialists claim that Australian dollar is testing 100-day MA versus the greenback at $1.0370. In their view, this may be a pivotal level. If Aussie breaches this support, it will likely decline to $1.0145 (this year’s minimum) and then to the parity. At the same time the economists comment on rising US Treasury yields: “The recent sell-off in US Treasuries and swap rates has also played a key role in AUD/USD's trajectory. Although US 10-year yields may have found a bottom, it is still premature to call a lasting uptrend. The narrowing in the 10-year AU/US spread may thus soon run out of steam, helping to set a floor for AUD/USD.” According to SocGen, though the Reserve bank of Australia may have been reassured by the recent stabilization (even though it may be temporary) of the euro zone debt crisis, it will remain concerned by the Chinese data. With key rates currently at 4.25%, the central bank clearly has plenty of room to act if necessary. The next RBA meeting is on April 3. It will be also necessary to watch Chinese data in April: the official PMI and Q1 GDP are released on April 1and 13 respectively, the CPI (which hit its June 2010 minimum of 3.2% y/y in February) is expected on 9 April. If Chinese economic growth keeps slowing, the People’s Bank of China may be tempted to ease monetary policy further. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-23/17017-socgen-comments-audusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 "Aussie may weaken versus yen"(2012-03-23) Aussie may weaken versus yen Strategists at Aspen Trading Group, one of the leading providers of actionable analysis and trading strategies in the currency markets, recommend selling the AUD/JPY at 85.90 with a stop at 87.00 targeting 82.50. According to analysts, the currency pair follows the S&P 500 stock index. Recent negative manufacturing reports from China (Manufacturing PMI declined to 48.1 in Feb. against 49.6 in Jan.) and Europe (PMI indices stand below 50) put a downward pressure on the S&P 500 index, so the Aussie is going to decrease against the yen. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-23/17022-aussie-may-weaken-versus-yen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 "GBP/JPY: growth potential "(2012-03-23) GBP/JPY: growth potential There may be a chance to benefit from buying British pound versus Japanese yen. Note that GBP/JPY has broken above the weekly Ichimoku Cloud for the first time in 4 years. As a result, sterling may rise to 140 yen in the coming weeks and opening longs on the pair may be a sensible way to play on potential yen’s weakness. Concerns about the state of UK economy aren’t very likely to affect GBP/JPY unless the nation is stripped of its top credit rating or the double dip recession occurs. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-23/17023-gbpjpy-growth-potential Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 "BNP Paribas: still bearish on EUR/USD"(2012-03-23) BNP Paribas: still bearish on EUR/USD Strategists at Societe Generale point at the growing concerns over Europe and China. Despite these worries EUR/USD rebounded today from a low of $1.3133 to $1.3293. However, BNP Paribas analysts expect the euro to keep weakening. In their opinion, Treasury yields may overcome the levels expected given the current Fed policy. Moreover, specialists believe the strain in Europe may rise on the backdrop of the French and Greek elections. Note that we may see a “head and shoulders” pattern on the daily chart (neckline at $1.3000), so the levels in the $1.3000/2969 area have to be watched for confirmation of a larger bearish move. There are the talks of sell orders in the $1.3290/3300 zone. Support for EUR/USD is found at $1.3180 (100-day MA), $1.3150/57 (76.4% Fibonacci correction from the move $1.3286/1.3133/March 22 maximum, 50-day MA). Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-23/17027-bnp-paribas-still-bearish-eurusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 "MIG Bank: USD/JPY technical levels "(2012-03-23) MIG Bank: USD/JPY technical levels According to MIG Bank analysts, the USD/JPY is confidently continuing a downward movement from 84.00 area after the 800-pip rally since early February. To bring the bullish trend back to the market a consolidation above 84.18 is required. The currency pair is expected to stay above the 80.59 (March 7 swing low) and 80.00 (psychological level) support lines. Support lies at 82.25. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-23/17032-mig-bank-usdjpy-technical-levels Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 "Bernanke: comments on the economic situation"(2012-03-23) Bernanke: comments on the economic situation The Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has spoken several times this week on the most important questions concerning US and global economic prospects. According to Bernanke, the U.S. economy is standing on pre-crisis levels in the context of the sovereign debt volume and low consumer confidence. A rise in consumer spending is needed to support U.S. economic growth. Moreover, high unemployment (8.3%) still raises serious concerns. Recent indicators, including new claims for unemployment insurance and surveys of hiring plans, point to the likelihood of more sluggish job growth in the period ahead. During the testimony before Congress on Wednesday Bernanke noted the commodity price growth poses a significant risk to the U.S. and global economy, adding that the current increase in oil and gas prices probably would reverse before sparking long-term inflation. On Thursday Ben Bernanke opined that the financial crisis hasn’t been caused by low Federal funds rates in the early 2000s. “Monetary policy did not play an important role in raising house prices,” Bernanke said. He noted housing prices began to pick up in the late 1990s before the Fed began cutting interest rates and rose dramatically after the central bank began tightening. One of the alternative reasons for home prices rise, according to Bernanke, could be the psychological optimism generating a growth in stock prices. As for the euro area, the Fed’s Chairman claimed that the financial and economic situation in there remains complicated regardless of the slight easing of stress. In order to overcome the recession European authorities have to keep strengthening the region’s banking system, reducing debt levels and encouraging economic growth. Bernanke pointed that the influence of the debt crisis in southern Europe on American banks is limited. However, analysts say, Greek, Spanish, Italian and Portuguese bonds account for 7% of the U.S. banks assets. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-23/17031-bernanke-comments-economic-situation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 26, 2012 Author Share Posted March 26, 2012 "BOTMUFJ, UBS: still long on USD/JPY"(2012-03-26) BOTMUFJ, UBS: still long on USD/JPY The greenback recovered from 10-day minimum versus Japanese yen where it fell on Friday due to weak data from Europe and China, while Japan posted trade surplus in February. Never the less, strategists at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ and UBS are still long on USD. Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ: “Even though the dollar rally on the yen has lost a bit of momentum, the dollar is still strong after it didn't break below the 81.97 support twice in the last two weeks”. The specialists think that USD/JPY won’t be seriously affected by the repatriation flows ahead of Japan’s fiscal year-end as there’s more talk about importers buying dollar on the dip than about offers by exporters. According to BOTMUFJ, many exporters have already finished their currency hedging, not only for the fiscal year to March 31, but also until the end of the first quarter of the next financial term. UBS: USD/JPY may still rise to 85 yen in the next few weeks, so buy US currency on dips. The analysts say that “Japan's recent run of monthly trade deficits isn't the main reason to be bearish on the yen”. In their view, the Bank of Japan's monetary loosening announced last month plus higher yields in the US are the factors that suggest the currency will weaken further against the dollar. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-26/17034-botmufj-ubs-still-long-usdjpy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 26, 2012 Author Share Posted March 26, 2012 "EUR/USD: trading week begins"(2012-03-26) EUR/USD: trading week begins On Friday EUR/USD reached a 3-week high as far as fears of a global meltdown are a little bit down. Some market participants, however, believe bond auctions in Spain and Italy on Tuesday could put a downward pressure on the European currency. Italy is looking to raise 7.5 billion euro ($9.95 billion) in debt markets. Barclays Capital: Any sign of erosion in restored confidence for Italian and Spanish bonds is likely to weigh on the euro. In our view, the euro drops to $1.20 in 12 months because of the lackluster economic data continuing to come from Europe. Der Spiegel reported the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble are expected to allow a temporary increase in the euro zone’s financial “firewall”. Before that Merkel opposed to any increase, but in Berlin they say she cannot resist the international pressure indefinitely. Euro zone finance ministers are supposed to reach a decision at a meeting in Copenhagen this Friday, March 30.The expansion of the euro-zone's rescue funds could open the way for the IMF to increase its own anti-crisis firewall during a spring meeting next month. In contrast to Europe, economic climate in U.S. is gradually improving. On Friday, however, lower than forecasted data on the country's new home sales were released (313K in Feb. versus 318K in Jan.). The German Ifo business climate index, started to grow in November 2011, in February increased to 109.8 versus 109.6 in January. The Fed's Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak later today. EUR/USD is now trading in the $1.3260 area. According to analysts, the support levels for the currency pair lie at $1.3190 (March 13 maximum) and $1.3178/68 (100- and 50-day MA). The resistance is seen at $1.3320 (February 9 maximum), $1.3365 (February 27 minimum). Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-26/17...ing-week-begins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 26, 2012 Author Share Posted March 26, 2012 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2012-03-26) Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD Weekly GBP/USD During the last couple of weeks GBP/USD was going up leaning against the Turning line (1). Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) act as support – the lines have so far crossed forming the “golden cross”, though the signal isn’t very strong as the intersection took place below the Cloud. Kumo itself keeps narrowing (4) as Senkou Span A continues moving upwards. The chances of bulls aren’t bad: they are approaching the Cloud which is thin in that area and thus not a great obstacle. However, the prices met some resistance in the $1.5920 area (downtrend resistance line) and sterling opened this week on the downside. That’s why Tenkan-sen seems a critical level for now: if the pair fails to hold above it, it will likely slide to Kijun-sen. Daily GBP/USD On the daily chart GBP/USD keeps moving sideways: the pair consolidated above the horizontal Standard line (1). The bullish Ichimoku Cloud (3) stopped narrowing and began gradually widening. Tenkan-sen (2) is slowly moving up to meet Kijun-sen (1): if the 2 lines intersect, they’ll form “golden cross” – strong bullish signal as the lines are currently above Kumo. For now the prices enjoy strong support of both the Standard and the Turning lines. As for resistance, it’s provided by last week’s maximums and the late February/early March highs. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-26/17037-ichimoku-weekly-forecast-gbpusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 26, 2012 Author Share Posted March 26, 2012 "CFTC trader positioning data"(2012-03-26) CFTC trader positioning data The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that during the week to March 20: - US dollar net longs shrank by 37% (their value dropped from $19.0 to $11.67 billion); - Euro net shorts decreased by 16%; - Pound net shorts contracted by 62%; - Yen net short fell by 40%; - Franc net shorts declined by 23%; - Aussie net longs declined by 33%; - Kiwi’s net longs reduced by 68%. Among forex majors only loonie showed increased net interest from investors (net longs rose by 58%). It’s necessary to note that the figures cited above are always a week old at the time of their release. Never the less, CFTC data gives a good oversight into how the market is positioned and if/how these positions are being unwound. Although the CME speculators represent a small fraction of trading in the currency markets, their trades are widely seen as typical of hedge fund investors' currency movements. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-26/17039-cftc-trader-positioning-data Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 26, 2012 Author Share Posted March 26, 2012 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY"(2012-03-26) Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY Weekly USD/JPY As it can be seen from the chart, prices consolidate in the 82.00/84.20 area. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines are moving horizontally, as well as the lines Senkou Span A and B. The descending Cloud narrowed, signaling that bears are losing power. Bulls have to make a decisive spurt to reverse the current flat trend. In February the greenback managed to break through Kumo (bullish signal). However, given the fact that the prices are rather far from the support levels (Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines and the upper bound of the Ichimoku Cloud), there seems to be a risk of a pullback before further growth. Analysts advise to wait for positive signals before going long (the Ichimoku Cloud to change the color, the Turning line and the Standard line to reverse upwards). Daily USD/JPY According to the daily chart, dollar fell below the Turning line (1), which from now on became a resistance level. The pair’s move down turned the Tenkan-sen line horizontally. The up-directed Standard line (2) supports the prices. As a whole, USD/JPY outlook stays positive. The bullish Ichimoku Cloud is growing quickly (3), signaling the steep upward trend started in February will continue. The currency pair may dip to Kijun-sen (2) due to retracement. However, the bulls are still expected to continue the upward movement. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-26/17041-ishimoku-usdjpy-nedelya-26-30-marta Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 "Bernanke revived concerns about QE3"(2012-03-27) Bernanke revived concerns about QE3 On Monday the US dollar declined against the other major currencies on the back of the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke comments. According to him, the U.S. labor market is still weak, and the recent signs of improvement may be due to statistical errors. Bernanke said that he doesn't expect the unemployment rate (8.3% in Feb.) to keep falling. The Fed Chairman comments raised concerns about the U.S. economy prospects and increased the likelihood of a third round of quantitative easing (QE3). Analysts believe the Fed will keep interest rates near zero in 2012 to sustain recovery, so the greenback continues to decline. Analysts’ comments Societe Generale: QE3 is on its way or at least a very dovish stance until such a point as unemployment falls enough. Barclays Capital: The improvement in US economic prospects has continued, but the USD remains weak. In our view, the USD will be viewed as an increasingly unattractive funding currency, compared with the JPY, EUR and CHF. UBS: EUR/USD may rise to $1.3489, the highest since Dec. 2, after it broke the $1.3294 to $1.3303 resistance range yesterday. Today Bernanke is scheduled to give a new lecture at George Washington University. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-27/17050-bernanke-revived-concerns-about-qe3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 "Will the stock market remain bullish?"(2012-03-27) Will the stock market remain bullish? More and more specialists start to think that the current rally in stocks, commodities and emerging markets could be a long-lasting one. Last week the S&P 500 index closed above 1,400 points for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis rising by 30% from the bottom at the beginning of October (the index gained 11% in 2012). It seems that investors don’t hurry to take profits, but prefer to stay at American markets. Goldman Sachs: “The prospects for future returns in equities relative to bonds are as good as they have been in a generation”. Wells Fargo: individual investors have started wading back into higher-risk, higher-yield assets, including high-yield and emerging market funds. There’s an increase in demand for high-dividend-yield stocks, high-yield corporate debt, and emerging market fixed income. Barclays Capital underlines that the prices for US Treasuries regarded as the safe haven dropped by 7.3% this year. EUR/USD is up by about 2% by the end of the first quarter. Goldman Sachs expects euro to rise to $1.38 over the next 6 months and $1.45 by the end of 2012. So, we see that the market was quite optimistic about US economic recovery. The main question now is whether Bernanke’s concerns will prove to be correct (read more). Another thing to worry is seasonal patterns: according to some researches, American data tends to deteriorate in spring. The market’s sentiment may change quickly enough. Still, the current situation is much less tense than in 2008 or in 2011. As the specialists at Credit Agricole say, “markets love a grizzly story, but there is no grizzly story – the bears have left the room.” Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-27/17051-will-stock-market-remain-bullish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 "Barclays Capital: major currencies outlook"(2012-03-27) Barclays Capital: major currencies outlook JPY: Japanese currency is expected to weaken versus the USD, AUD and CNY on the back of the risk of a structural current account deficit. We recommend going long USD/JPY, because prospects for the greenback have significantly increased. The Bank of Japan aims for higher inflation, but it doesn’t seem to be a significant negative factor for yen, while the current account deficit is a real long-lasting threat, supported by fiscal problems and political instability. EUR: the easy monetary policy and the efforts to resolve the debt crisis have decoupled the global risk appetite and the common currency prospects. A weak euro and buoyant equity market is a rare combination. According to the past experience, this environment is positive for the euro’s major counterparts (usually the liquid safe havens and oil-related currencies outperform). AUD, NZD: in the medium term the outlook on commodity prices is bright, so the Aussie and the kiwi remain high-yielding currencies. If crude oil prices grow for reasons different from strong Asian growth, AUD and NZD may continue the recent depreciation since early March. CAD: Canadian dollar still has the biggest growth potential among the major currencies (influenced by less stretched valuation, bright oil price prospects and U.S. economy growth). Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-27/17052-barclays-capital-major-currencies-outlook Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 " UBS: comments on USD/JPY "(2012-03-27) UBS: comments on USD/JPY Analysts at UBS claim that there are many reasons to be bearish on yen in the near term: - late deficits in the Japanese trade balance despite February’s modest surplus; - additional 10 trillion yen in the asset purchase program decided by the Bank of Japan in its last monetary policy meeting; - the BOJ’s commitment to eradicate deflation by chasing a 1% inflation goal; - rising US Treasury yields; - the likelihood of private Japanese investors to seek higher returns in foreign assets. The specialists keep advising to buy USD/JPY on the dips claiming that the pair may still reach 85.00 in the next few weeks. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-27/17053-ubs-comments-usdjpy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 "Societe Generale: comments on Eurogroup meeting"(2012-03-27) Societe Generale: comments on Eurogroup meeting Analysts at Societe Generale claim that the Eurogroup meeting on March 30 will be an important event for markets and the broader economy. In their view, last week's movements on peripheral bond markets should have served as a reminder to euro area policymakers that the debt crisis is not over yet. Failure to increase the rescue mechanisms this Friday would be a significant negative. The specialists say that despite the talk that German and Finnish politicians no longer oppose the temporary increase in the region’s bailout funds, much will depend on the will of the fiscally weaker member states to deliver on austerity and structural reform. While financial stress in the periphery may thus ease anew, austerity headwinds will continue to blow. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/a...rogroup-meeting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 "RBS: go long on GBP/USD"(2012-03-27) RBS: go long on GBP/USD Analysts at RBS recommend buying British pound versus the greenback on the dips again below $1.5929. The bank is bullish on sterling as GBP/USD broke yesterday above the downtrend resistance line connecting the maximums of 2007, 2011 and 2012. Target is at $1.6072 (the 38.2% Fibo retracement from the credit crunch sell-off), while stops are to set in the $1.5850 area. The specialists warn of resistance in the $1.5992 zone (2012 maximum). Support lies at $1.5929 (February 8 maximum), $1.5850 (100-day MA) and $1.5767 (last week’s minimum). Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-27/17056-rbs-go-long-gbpusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 " SocGen: official China’s PMI may be better"(2012-03-27) SocGen: official China’s PMI may be better Analysts at Societe Generale believe that China’s official PMI data won’t be as weak as HSBC flash PMI. The specialists expect PMI to rise from 51 in February to 51.2 in March. According to the bank, March readings are typically more than 3 points above those of February even during the sharp deceleration of Chinese economy in 2009. “Stripping out this effect, our forecast for the March reading would actually signal contraction in China's manufacturing activity, and thus consistent with the HSBC PMI,” say the strategists. The HSBC preliminary PMI fell to 48.1 in March, a 4-month minimum, compared with a final reading of 49.6 in February. China’s March NBS PMI is due for release on April 1. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-27/17059-socgen-official-chinas-pmi-may-be-better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 "Deutsche Bank: seasonal pattern of U.S. data surprises"(2012-03-27) Deutsche Bank: seasonal pattern of U.S. data surprises According to John Horner, strategist at Deutsche Bank, the greenback’s growth in recent months may be unstable and connected with a seasonality of the U.S. economic data. There seems to be a tendency for U.S. economic figures to overcome the expectations towards the end of a year and in the early part of the following year. However, since March, the situation is usually back to normal. The seasonal pattern is traced better if we exclude winter 2008-09 (peak of the financial crisis). John Horner believes the tendency existed long before the crisis; in the recent couple of years, however, it has become more evident. In recent months the U.S. economic data has followed the usual positive scenario, and in March, as would be expected, is turning lower. According to Horner, the lackluster data will definitely mark the U.S. Treasury yields down, so the greenback will also be on the ebb in the forthcoming months. The theory partly explains why USD/JPY tends to go down each year from early April. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-27/17060-deutsche-bank-seasonal-pattern-us-data-surprises Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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