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"Deloitte: forecast for the RBA rates"(2011-07-25)

 

 

 

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Analysts at Deloitte Access Economics expect the Reserve bank of Australia to raise the interest rates 3 times the next year, but not earlier.

 

The specialists base such forecast on the expectations that the mining boom encourages the growth of wages stimulating the economic recovery from the costliest floods.

 

According to Deloitte, Australian incomes will rise because of high commodity prices and strong demand. The number of people employed won’t be sufficient enough for the growing economy. As a result, the demand for labor will get higher than the supply and the wages will go up.

 

The last time the RBA changed rates was in November 2010. Since that time, the central bank’s benchmark rate accounts for 4.75%. During the period from April and June the number of jobs dropped by 5,400. Australian dollar appreciated by 22% during the past year.

 

It’s necessary to note that Australia’s recovery is two-speed as the mining industry flourishes, but other areas such as tourism, manufacturing, farming and retailers suffer from the strong national currency. That’s why the economists expect hikes in the longer term.

 

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Chart. Daily AUD/USD

 

 

 

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"Pimco: US risks to lose its credit rating"(2011-07-25)

 

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US President Barack Obama has asked for a $2.4 trillion borrowing boost in the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling. House Speaker John Boehner encouraged the Republicans to unite their efforts in order not to let Obama obtain the money at once without any guarantees of spending cuts.

 

Mohamed A. El-Erian, the head of Pacific Investment Management Co, the world’s largest manager of bond funds, believes that the United States may lose its top AAA credit rating even if US Congress agrees to lift up the debt ceiling.

 

The specialist notes that the nation already suffers from weak economic growth and high unemployment and the debates over the debt limit make the problems intensify.

 

Standard & Poor’s estimates the possibility of US rating cut within 3 months by 50%.

 

Yields on benchmark 10-year rose to 2.96% on July 22 but remain below the 5-year average of 3.71%.

 

 

 

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"Citigroup: US dollar may gain as a safe haven"(2011-07-26)

 

 

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Analysts at Citigroup believe that the demand for the greenback as a safe haven may rise in the situation of uncertainty caused by the lack of agreement between Barack Obama and US Congress on raising the $14.3-trillion debt ceiling and reducing the budget deficit.

 

The specialists remind that during the times of elevated risk aversion investors tend to seek most liquid and deepest markets and American Treasuries and dollars have traditionally been such.

 

As US authorities have reached the deadlock, stock markets are down so that investors’ risk sentiment worsens. That will make traders desert riskier assets.

 

House Speaker John Boehner who represents the main opposition force against the White House’s called for a 2-step debt-limit extension that would provide a roughly $1 trillion – less than Obama has requested – demonstrating his unwillingness to compromise and withstanding the threat of President’s veto.

 

Standard & Poor’s estimates the possibility of US rating cut from AAA to AA+ within 3 months by 50%.

 

 

 

 

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"BOTMUFJ: USD/CHF has potential for rebound"(2011-07-26)

 

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Technical analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ believe that the greenback may rise from the record minimum versus the Swiss franc in the 0.8000 area hit today.

 

The specialists underline that 14-day RSI (relative strength index) for USD/CHF dropped to 30 that may mean that its rate has fallen too rapidly and risks reversing. As a result, the economists see the chance of the pair’s short-term recovery.

 

In their view, US currency that is now at roughly 6% below the Ichimoku Cloud has to reach it in order to confirm the rebound and the change of trend.

 

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Chart. Daily USD/CHF

 

 

 

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"Wells Fargo: EUR/USD won’t rise above $1.47"(2011-07-26)

 

 

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The single currency rose today to the 3-week maximum versus the greenback at $1.4500.

 

Analysts at Wells Fargo Bank claim, however, that though they have become more positive on euro, they think that its advance is going to be limited as there’s evidence of the euro zone’s economic slowdown and remained uncertainty about the possibility of further contagion.

 

According to the specialists, the pair EUR/USD has potential to gain during the next few weeks, but it will be capped by the June maximum in the $1.47 area.

 

The bank adds that commodity and emerging currencies may be the best performers in the longer term as the risks in Europe and United States ease down.

 

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Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

 

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"Commodity currencies have become less dependent on commodities"(2011-07-26)

 

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The currencies of the large exporters of raw materials are becoming less correlated with the dynamics of commodity prices as investors choose them as a refuge from the debt issues in Europe, the United States and Japan.

 

The following figures speak for themselves: S&P’s GSCI Total Return index of 24 commodities lost 8.45% since April, while Canadian, Australian and New Zealand’s dollars and Norwegian krone added 1% on average during the same period. Strategists at BMO Capital Markets claim that Canadian dollar seems to have outpaced its commodity-price fundamentals.

 

Analysts at Citigroup underline that the desire of the central banks, especially the Asian ones, to diversify their reserves is a significant driver of commodity currencies. Strategists at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that the greenback is slowly but surely losing its status as the world’s reserve currency, while Australian and Canadian dollar are now the majors with large markets.

 

According to the IMF data, the share of the world’s currency reserves denominated in “other currencies” such as Aussie, kiwi and loonie rose from 3.6% a year ago to 4.7% in the first quarter. The greenback that accounted for 72.7% of the reserved 10 years ago represented 61.8% in the first 3 months of 2010 and 60.7% at the beginning of 2011.

 

Another reason of commodity currencies’ strength is relatively higher interest rates. Investors will get about 4.35% more from 2-year government bonds in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Norway than from Treasuries of similar maturity.

 

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Chart. Daily AUD/USD

 

 

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"US dollar may suffer this week from the economic data"(2011-07-26)

 

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US Q2 GDP is released on Friday at 4:30 pm (GMT+4). If the reading is low, US dollar will get under a very negative pressure the debt burden will be accompanied by the nation’s economic weakness.

 

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect to see annual growth 1.6% after 1.9% in the first quarter.

 

During the past 7 quarters the growth accounted for 2.8% on average. Never the less, for US to enjoy the sustainable decline in unemployment, economic growth pace has to exceed 3%, so the results between 2.5% and 3% just won’t be enough.

 

It’s also necessary to note that many experts are already thinking about the third quarter hoping that the economic situation in the US will improve due to the increased auto output as the Japan supply-chain problems are resolved as well as lower commodity prices. However, if the Q3 data disappoints the market the sentiment will turn very negative as traders are tired of the constant bad news they have been getting so far.

 

Analysts at JPMorgan also advise investors to pay attention to US bond auctions. US Treasury will offer 2-year securities on Tuesday, 5-year papers on Wednesday and 7-year bond on Thursday. In their view, low demand for Treasuries will make dollar weaken versus Japanese yen, Swiss franc and the single currency.

 

 

 

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"MIG bank: strategists of selling USD/CHF"(2011-07-26)

 

 

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Technical analysts at MIG bank advise investors to sell US dollar versus Swiss franc.

 

The specialists give 2 possible strategies. Firstly, one may sell USD/CHF on its rebound to 0.81 with stops above 0.82 targeting 0.80, 0.7825 and 0.7650. Secondly, if the greenback doesn’t recover, the bank recommends opening shorts on the pair’s break below 0.7997 stopping above 0.8097 and targeting 0.77 and 0.76.

 

It’s necessary to remember about the fundamental factors though. Strategists at HSBC believe that American currency will gain support once US debt issue is resolved. In their view, if US lawmakers approve a package of at least $3.5 trillion of cuts, the danger of a credit downgrade should decrease.

 

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График. H4 USD/CHF

 

 

 

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"BMO Capital: how to hedge from US default"(2011-07-26)

 

 

 

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Analysts at BMO Capital claim that there are 3 scenarios of the debt-ceiling debate:

 

1.The plan close to the one developed by the “Gang of Six” will be adopted.

2.President Obama will agree to a small extension of the debt limit to prolong the discussion of a major shift of the debt ceiling.

3.The worst case scenario: US will default or/and loses its top credit rating.

The specialists note that Standard & Poor's seems to be extremely worried by the dynamics of US debt and deficit, so the agency is likely to downgrade the nation even if the debt ceiling is raised.

 

Fearing the worst, one should sell Australian dollar, the classic riskier currency, versus Swiss franc, the classic safe haven. BMO recommends going short on AUD/CHF at 0.9073 stopping above 0.9203 and targeting 0.8503. Strategists at J.P. Morgan say that selling EUR/CHF may also suit as a strategy.

 

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Chart. Daily AUD/CHF

 

 

 

 

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"UBS: about the potential reduction of US debtt"(2011-07-26)

 

 

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Analysts at UBS think that the United States may lose its top AAA credit rating in August if the White house and Congress agree to limited reductions of the budget deficit, while Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service insist that $3-$4 trillion cuts are necessary.

 

According to the bank, the downgrade will certainly affect the prestige of America, but the impact on the greenback probably won’t be very significant as the central banks won’t sell Treasuries as they have to hold foreign-exchange reserves in liquid assets.

 

John Taylor, the head of the world’s largest currency hedge fund, believes that dollar won’t lose its dominance even in case of the nation’s downgrade.

 

 

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"Western Union: RBNZ may raise the interest rate"(2011-07-27)

 

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New Zealand’s dollar renewed today the record maximum versus its American counterpart rising to 0.8763. Resistance for NZD/USD is situated at 0.8800.

 

Analysts at Western Union claim that kiwi managed to strengthen because of US dollar’s weakness, positive domestic business confidence survey and Australian CPI data.

 

The Reserve bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday at 1:00 am (GMT+4). Although the consensus forecast is that the central bank will leave the borrowing costs unchanged at 2.5%, Western Union economists regard the chance of the rate hike as rather high.

 

The specialists underline that when the RBNZ cut the interest rates by 50 basis points in March it clearly signaled that this was a temporary measure taken in order to help the national economy overcome the consequences of devastating earthquake that occurred in February. In their view, it’s obvious now that the disaster wasn’t as great as everyone feared. In addition, there’s significant enough inflationary pressure – one more argument to look forward to the monetary tightening.

 

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Chart. Daily NZD/USD

 

 

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"Commerzbank: bullish outlook for EUR/USD"(2011-07-27)

 

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The single currency is consolidating in the 1.4500 area versus the greenback.

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that as long as EUR/USD is trading above the short-term uptrend line at 1.4324, the outlook for it will remain bullish.

 

According to the specialists, the pair will be trying to retest 1.4580 (July 4 maximum) and 1.4694/1.4704 (June maximum and 78.6% retracement of the decline from May highs).

 

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Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

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"RBS: sell dollar versus yen and franc"(2011-07-27)

 

 

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Currency strategists at the Royal Bank of Canada note that US authorities seem to make no progress in the debt deal.

 

In their view, if the market’s sentiment keeps deteriorating, it’s necessary to sell the greenback versus Japanese yen and Swiss franc. The specialists underline that these currencies were steadily appreciating since US debt issues escalated and the policymakers have reached a deadlock in trying to raise the debt ceiling and avoid default.

 

RBS advises to stay away from commodity currencies such as Canadian and Australian dollars as they are vulnerable to the rising risk aversion even despite the fiscal strength of these nations.

 

It’s very difficult to say how low US dollar will fall. However, some analysts think the greenback’s slide in case of the United States downgrade won’t be that strong.

 

Analysts at Well Fargo, for example, have studied other instances when a country has lost its AAA credit rating. The economists came to the conclusion that the impact of the rating cut will be moderate of 3-5%.

 

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Chart. Daily USD/JPY

 

 

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"Fund managers look forward to US downgrade"(2011-07-27)

 

 

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The largest fund managers such as BlackRock, Loomis Sayles and Franklin Templeton Investments expect United States to be downgraded.

 

Analysts at BlackRock note that when the policymakers face the deadline, the debt ceiling will be raised. Never the less, the nation will be still likely to lose its top credit rating.

 

Specialists at Loomis Sayles Bond Fund doubt that the White house and the Congress will manage to reach an agreement and expect that at least one agency will reduce US debt rating. At the same time, the AAA or AA rating doesn’t exactly matter for US debt as the Treasuries will continue to be a large and liquid market, says the fund.

 

Strategists at BNP Paribas, however, do think that the credibility of US bonds is declining. Yields indicate investors are favoring bank or company debt over Treasuries. 10-year Treasury yield hit 2.97% level today, though it’s still below the decade’s average of 4.05%.

 

Economists at Franklin Templeton Investments say that the lack of long-term solution of American debt issues will cast doubt on the risk-free status of US Treasuries.

 

 

 

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"Credit Agricole: US problems and EUR/USD dynamics"(2011-07-27)

 

 

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Analysts at Credit Agricole believe that the risks that the US will lose its top credit rating are high given the current impasse in the negotiations about the debt ceiling increase.

 

If the United States is downgraded, equity markets will fall and the bearish pressure on US dollar will strengthen, while the gold prices will rise. The bank thinks that shock to the American economy in case of the rating cut could lower the next quarter's real GDP growth close to zero, though 4Q growth is likely to show some rebound after a possible resolution to the budget standoff.

 

According to Credit Agricole, EUR/USD should remain supported for some time by the widening of yield spread between US and German government bonds. The specialists warn, however, that as investors’ demand for safe havens increases, Treasury yields may actually get lower.

 

In addition, the strategists underline that the August 2 deadline isn’t ultimate as the White house will have 1-2 weeks more before it runs out of cash. As a result, the panic seen so far seems to be exaggerated. The analysts say thus that euro’s advance is going to be limited. Strategists at Societe Generale agree. In their view, the pair can't hold above $1.45.

 

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Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

 

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"HSBC: RBNZ will raise rates twice this year"(2011-07-28)

 

 

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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided today to keep the interest rates at the current 2.5% level.

 

Analysts at HSBC note that the central bank has signaled that the borrowing costs will be increased soon. In their view, it will happen in September and then once more in the fourth quarter. The specialists say that the RBNZ benchmark rate will be raised by 175 basis points by end of 2012.

 

According to HSBC, the central bank doesn’t tighten monetary policy because of the high uncertainty caused by the problems in other nations. The economists point out that the RBNZ admits that the 50-basis-points cut in March was a kind of insurance against economic weakness, noting that the cost of it may be that the Reserve Bank will have to lift up rates more and faster to get inflation expectations under control. The strategists claim that the headline inflation at 5.30% may require action, rather than words.

 

Analysts at Western Union think that support for the pair NZD/USD lies at $0.8680, with resistance is situated at $0.8765.

 

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Chart. Daily NZD/USD

 

 

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"Commerzbank: Aussie is becoming the save haven"(2011-07-28)

 

 

 

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Australian dollar, one of the riskier currencies, has strengthened so far versus the greenback as investors have been using it as a refuge from US and European debt problems together with traditional safe havens such as Swiss franc and Japanese yen bought during the periods of risk aversion.

 

Strategists at Morgan Stanley claim that the market’s differentiating between currencies looking into the country-specific factors.

 

Strategists at Commerzbank claim that AUD is increasingly becoming an Asian safe-haven currency. This process is encouraged by the fact that Asian central banks sell US dollars versus Australian to stem the gains in their national currencies.

 

Among the factors that make Australian currency attractive for investors there are the nation’s top AAA credit rating by both Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's and higher yields. Australia's CPI rose by 3.6% in the second quarter bring back the speculation about the Reserve bank of Australia’s potential rate hike.

 

It seems that Aussie’s highly sensitive correlation to investor risk sentiment has broken down and it’s returning to being driven by fundamentals.

 

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Chart. Daily AUD/USD

 

 

 

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"Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD"(2011-07-28)

 

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Yesterday British pound went down from the 6-week maximums in the $1.6440 area to stay in the $1.6330 zone.

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that GBP/USD has ruined its accelerated uptrend. In their view, in the near term the pair is going to consolidate and then drop to June 22 maximum at $1.6260.

 

The specialists say that as long as sterling remains above this level it has chance to strengthen to the 78.6% retracement of the decline from April and May maximums in the $1.6540/47 zone.

 

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Chart. H4 GBP/USD

 

 

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"Citigroup: comments on EUR/USD"(2011-07-28)

 

 

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Analysts at Citigroup claim that the euro bears didn’t manage to trigger stops below $1.4320 and EUR/USD experienced a short-covering rally to the levels around $1.4360.

 

The specialists think that if the pair breaks down below $1.4320, it will find support in the $1.4310 area where 55-day and 100-day MA converge and a base of the Ichimoku Cloud is found.

 

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Chart. H4 EUR/USD

 

 

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"HSBC: USD/JPY may decline to 70 yen"(2011-07-28)

 

 

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Currency strategists at HSBC believe that no matter how develops the situation in the US, investors will benefit from buying yen.

 

In other words, the specialists expect Japanese currency to gain versus its American counterpart in both cases: if the market’s risk aversion keeps escalating and if the debt ceiling is finally lifted. In their view, it isn’t clear is the current environment negative only for the greenback or we see the general risk sentiment deterioration.

 

HSBC underlines that yen has added only 4.5% this year and is likely to start catching up better performing G10 currencies. According to the analysts, the pair USD/JPY may fall to 72 and probably to 70 yen.

 

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Chart. Daily USD/JPY

 

 

 

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"Commerzbank about the prospects of Japanese intervention"(2011-07-28)

 

 

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Economists at Commerzbank also think that the current gradual appreciation of Japanese currency is much different from its March surge when it bounced by 4% in one day making G7 nations intervene at the currency market.

 

In their opinion, the key level of USD/JPY watched by Japanese monetary authorities is seen at 76.00 yen. The specialists note, however, that the risk of intervention will rise if the pace of yen’s growth increases.

 

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Chart. Daily USD/JPY

 

 

 

 

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"Deutsche Bank: 4 scenarios of US debt debates outcome"(2011-07-28)

 

 

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Unites States has been enjoying the top AAA credit rating from the very moment debt ratings were introduced, so it’s difficult to get used to the thought that the odds of the nation’s downgrade are high enough.

 

Analysts at Deutsche Bank believe that there are 4 possible outcomes of US debt problems:

 

1.The White house and Congress will come up with a deal that will rule out the possibility of any rating cut.

2.The deal that will help the nation to avoid default though won’t be able to prevent 1-notch downgrade.

3.The deal will fail to solve the debt issues and US rating will be cut by several notches.

4.Default.

According to the specialists, the second variant seems to the most likely. Even in such case the greenback will get under negative pressure. Even though the markets seem to accept the possibility of rating’s reduction, the actual downgrade will still be a shock and dollar may lose 2% more versus the basket of currencies.

 

In case of the third scenario investors’ risk aversion will become very strong. In the short term this may be dollar-positive, but the economists don’t believe that US currency will be encouraged by the sustainable advance.

 

 

 

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"Nomura: US dollar is losing its safe haven status"(2011-07-28)

 

 

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Strategists at Nomura Securities warn that US dollar may lose its safe haven status if the nation’s credit rating is cut from the top AAA level.

 

The specialists note that during 4 of the last 5 the greenback was moving down in line with the S&P500 index, while normally it does so for 1 day out of 3. That means that American currency wasn’t really supported by the rising risk aversion.

 

Nomura also underlines that dollar has a habit of strengthening with the growth of US Treasury yields and the decline of their price. However, so far the opposite has been happening. This may be regarded as another indication that US dollar is no longer perceived as a refuge as investors stopped using it against falling Treasuries.

 

As a result, if dollar no more trades as a safe haven and US interest rates are well below those of most riskier currencies with top credit rating the demand for it will slump.

 

As a result, the analysts advise to buy AAA-rated Canadian and Australian dollars, Swiss franc and Scandinavian currencies in case of US downgrade. At the same time, it’s better to stay away from US currency before the uncertainty fades away.

 

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Chart. Daily AUD/USD

 

 

 

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"Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD"(2011-07-29)

 

 

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Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that this week for GBP/USD was quite volatile due to the high uncertainty at the market.

 

British pound didn’t manage to rise above $1.6380 and then eased down versus the greenback to the levels slightly above $1.6300. The bank thinks that the pair’s consolidating above June 22 maximum at $1.6260.

 

The specialists say that as long as sterling is trading above this level, it has chance to recover to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from April and May maximums in the $1.6540/47 zone.

 

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Chart. H4 GBP/USD

 

 

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"Reuters: Japanese authorities on stronger yen"(2011-07-29)

 

 

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As yen keeps appreciating versus its American counterpart and the markets are speculation on the potential intervention of Japanese monetary authorities, here are the key statements of the nation’s top officials as they are cited by Reuters.

 

Yoshihiko Noda, Finance Minister:

 

- “I am aware of various calls from the business sector and the severe situation Japanese companies face. We hope to take appropriate action with the cooperation of the Bank of Japan.”

 

- “We will take decisive action against excessive exchange rate volatility. I'd like to carefully examine how long we can leave current (exchange-rate) moves unattended.”

 

- “Movements have been one-sided. I think intervention has a certain effect temporarily. We should respond to excessive volatility and disorderly movements but it's not about (currency) levels.”

 

Kaoru Yosano, Economics Minister:

 

- “The yen's rise is not driven by domestic factors but by changes in global money flows ... The changes are occurring for a limited time period until August 2 so I hope the yen's rise will prove temporary...”

 

- “The government could counter a strong yen mainly by extending financial support to subcontractors and other firms suffering from the yen's rise... We have never thought about manipulating currency levels.”

 

- “Friday's economic data overall indicates the economy remains on a recovery trend, although employment is in a severe condition.”

 

Conclusion: if yen’s slump accelerates the intervention will come but it may happen at lower levels and after August 2.

 

1337ed4bec7a32f8535163e062a653b4_500_0_0.jpg

 

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8177

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