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USD/JPY may test 121 in near-term – Scotiabank

 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, anticipates the USD/JPY pair to test 121 levels in the near term as technicals point towards a building upside momentum.

 

Key Quotes

 

“USDJPY is flat, but seems to be adhering to last week’s upward trend. There were no major data releases today, however Japan is the only major who will release top tier data on Christmas Day, with CPI. Governor Kuroda’s comments were inline with previous ones, accordingly there was limited market reaction.”

 

“USDJPY short‐term technicals: mixed—however upside pressure and building momentum leave USDJPY upside risk as the core theme into the open."

 

"We’d expect a near‐term test of 121 and eventually fresh highs above the December 8th 121.85.” 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 22, 2014

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US stocks likely to open on a flat note

 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US stocks may open on a flat note as indicated by major index futures, after the strong performance of the last week. 

 

At the time of writing, the DJIA futures are up 0.29%, while the S&P 500 futures are up 0.17%. The NASDAQ futures are down 0.02%, along with a 0.10% gain in the Russell futures. Accordingly, the VIX futures declined 0.30%. The activity may remain sluggish today as traders may prefer to stay on the sidelines ahead of the Christmas day celebration on Thursday. 

 

On data front, the National Association of Realtors is scheduled to release its report on existing home sales in the month of November. Economists expect existing home sales to drop to an annual rate of 5.20 million units in November after climbing 1.5 percent to a rate of 5.26 million units in October. 

 

 

  

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 22, 2014

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EUR/GBP recovers ground after 4 days of losses

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The euro bounced off a 2-year low versus the dollar and edged higher against the pound and the yen as risk aversion eased across financial markets.

 

EUR/GBP is rising after four consecutive trading days of losses, having hit a daily high of 0.7858 in recent dealings. Liquidity remains low and the economic calendar is pretty light for the day offering little inspiration to currencies. Investors will be watching tomorrow’s UK GDP data release. 

 

EUR/GBP levels to watch

 

At time of writing, EUR/GBP is trading at 0.7848, recording % gain on the day, and with immediate resistances lining up at 0.7900 (psychological level/20-day SMA) and 0.7925 (Dec 19 high). On the flip side, supports are seen at 0.7812 (Dec 19 low) and 0.7800 (psycological level) ahead of 0.7765 (2014 low Sep 30). 

 

  

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 22, 2014

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EM currencies to remain pressurized in H1 2015 – BBH

 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman team expects soft commodity prices and the upcoming turn in US interest rates to keep the EM currencies pressurised through H1 2015.

 

Key Quotes

 

“EM currencies have stabilized after the FOMC meeting last week. Yet the Fed clearly signaled that it remains on track to start hiking rates around mid-2015. While Yellen’s guidance was taken as dovish (tightening won’t be at a predictable, “measured” pace), we still feel the looming Fed tightening cycle remains negative for EM. Furthermore, commodity prices remain soft. This and the upcoming turn in the US interest rate cycle should maintain downward pressure on EM currencies through H1 2015.”

 

“Greater differentiation amongst EM FX is being seen, and this trend should continue in 2015.”

 

“The standard deviation of FX changes in 2014 YTD has moved close to 10%, the highest since 2009.”

 

“This supports our view that fundamentals will remain a major factor for currency under- and out-performance in the current market conditions. Equity market returns across EM are showing a similar divergence trend, the greatest since 2009 as well.” 

 

 

  

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 22, 2014

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Bearish bets on the US 10-yr treasury reach a 4-year high - CFTC

 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released for the week ended Dec. 16 showed traders added to their overall bearish bets on the US 10-yr treasury notes, taking the cumulative bearish bets at a 4-year high. 

 

For the week ended Dec. 16, the non-commercial futures contracts of the 10-year treasury notes, primarily traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -258,250 contracts, which is a weekly decline of 56,915 contracts, from the previous week’s total of -201,335 net contracts. Contrary to the bearish bets on the treasuries, the yield on the 10-Year treasury note declined from 2.22% to 2.07% during the reporting period. 

 

The rise in bearish bets may have been due to the widespread belief that the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its Dec. 17 meet, shall indicate a sooner-than-expected interest rate hike in the US. The 10-yr yield currently trades at 2.172%; marginally above the 5-DMA located at 2.17%. 

 

10-yr Treasury yield Technical Levels

 

The yield has an immediate support located at 2.17% (5-DMA), under which losses could be extended to 2.136% (10-DMA). Meanwhile, resistance is seen at 2.20% and 2.225% respectively. 

 

 

  

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 22, 2014

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Brazilian senate report: Bitcoin isn't ready for regulation – CoinDesk

 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - CoinDesk Analysts share the Brazilian senate’s report which examines the need for regulating cryptocurrencies, further noting that the document suggests Bitcoin should not be regulated at the moment.

 

Key Quotes

 

“A new study commissioned for the Federal Senate of Brazil has sought to examine how the spread of bitcoin and other digital currencies could impact Brazil's economy, and whether formal regulation is necessary for the domestic industry.”

 

“Authored by Cesar Rodrigues van der Laan, a researcher at Banco Central do Brasil, the 18-page document concludes that Brazil should not immediately regulate bitcoin, arguing that there is not enough activity in local markets to warrant such rulemaking.”

 

“The paper goes on to highlight the varied response regulators have taken to bitcoin around the world, citing the stance taken by Russia, which has taken active steps to ban bitcoin, and the US, where state regulators are seeking to establish a framework for the industry.”

 

“Notably, the paper advocates that Brazil follow a similar path to the US, if and when it decides to introduce regulation for the industry”

 

“The statement marks the third time a major authority in Brazil has issued a statement on bitcoin this year, following Banco Central do Brasil's warning in February and an April decision by the Receita Federal, the country's tax authority, that it would treat digital currencies as financial assets.”

 

“Overall, the paper suggests that bitcoin may hold the most long-term promise as a cross-border payment system, though one that would require a regulatory framework at a later date.” 

  

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 22, 2014

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LME Inventory Update

 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The warehouse stocks data released daily by the London Metal Exchange (LME) today showed a rise in the inventory levels of Copper and nickel, while the inventory levels of Lead, Zinc and aluminium declined. 

 

Lead and zinc stocks decreased by 25 and 1225 tonnes respectively, while aluminium stocks witnessed another massive fall of 9925 tonnes. Meanwhile, copper stocks increased by 3525 tonnes and nickel inventory went up by 582 tonnes. 

  

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 23, 2014

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US GDP upward revised to 5 percent

 

 

 

FXStreet (London) - The final reading of US GDP, adjusted for price changes, increased at an annual rate of 5.0 percent in the third quarter of 2014, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, upwards revised from the second reading of 3.9 percent.

 

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month.

 

According to the BEA, the increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, non-residential fixed investment, federal government spending, exports, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. 

  

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 23, 2014

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USD/JPY extends gains on strong US GDP

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY pushed a tad higher and printed fresh highs after the release of much better-than-expected US gross domestic product. However, a big miss in durable good orders tempered dollar’s rally.

 

USD/JPY extended intraday gains and hit its highest level since in two weeks at 120.47 so far. At time of writing, the pair is trading just below recent highs, recording a 0.35% increase Tuesday. 

 

US data showed GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.0% in the Q3, up from the Q2 growth rate of 4.6% and the strongest pace in 11 years. However, not all was good news, as durable goods orders fell 0.7% in November, missing by far expectations of a 1.8% gain. 

 

USD/JPY technical levels

 

As for technical levels, immediate resistances are seen at 121.00 (psychological level) and 121.83 (2014 high Dec 8). On the flip side, supports could be found at 119.95 (daily low) and 119.30 (Dec 22 low). 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 23, 2014

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US Treasuries yields rise after strong GDP data

 

 


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The yields across the treasury market curve in the US shot higher after the stellar US third quarter GDP report raised hopes of a sooner-than-expected policy tightening in the US. 

 

The commerce department in the US revised up its estimate of GDP growth to a 5% from the 3.9% reported in the last month, citing stronger consumer and business spending than it had previously factored in. This is the fastest growth since the third quarter of 2003. 

 

The US 10-yr treasury yield now trades 2.6 basis points higher at 2.188%, while the 30-yr yield has gained 1.9 basis points to 2.768%. Meanwhile, at the short-end, the 2-yr yield is up 1.1 basis points to 0.728%, while the 3-yr yield is up 2.1 basis points to 1.129%. 

 

Moreover, with the strong US GDP data, the probability of a sooner-than-expected policy normalization in 2015 increases; as stated by Federal Reserve (Fed) chair. Yellen in her press conference at the Dec. 17 meet.

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 23, 2014

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Why have oil prices fallen so sharply relative to earlier in the year? - Rabobank

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Rabobank Research Team explains the major reason behind oil price fall, noting that an increase in US output and slowing global demand due to anticipated lower growth in EM were the major culprits.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The recent fall in oil prices that really gathered pace at the start of October caught most of the market off-guard. Prior to this move, most analysts were calling for oil prices to move higher on the back of rising tensions in the Middle East and Russia, and if they were calling for lower prices, forecasts tended to point to a small decline over a reasonably long period of time.”

 

“Brent oil actually stood north of USD 115 in June, with the front futures contract printing an intraday high for the year of USD 115.71 on 19th June which was the highest price since early August 2011.”

 

“The fall in oil prices has occurred in a number of phases driven by different factors but to summarise, we view most of the move as a result of structural oversupply largely driven by the rapid rise in US output. This was exacerbated by slowing demand largely driven by expectations of lower growth in the emerging market world, and finally a surge in downside momentum is likely to have triggered speculator selling as momentum driven accounts jumped on the move lower.” 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 23, 2014

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EUR/USD bearish tone prevails – FXStreet

 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, explains that the bearish tone for the EUR/USD pair prevails, which could take the pair towards the 1.2080 price zone if it breaks below its daily low at 1.2123.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The EUR/USD pair extended its decline down to 1.2123, fresh 2-year low, before profit taking took over the market. The dollar is down across the board albeit limited, in thin winter-holiday markets. Having reached a daily high of 1.2186, the EUR/USD pair trades around former year low at 1.2160, far from suggesting a bottom has been reached.”

 

“Technically, the 4 hours chart for the EUR/USD shows that price was unable to overcome its 20 SMA that continues to offer dynamic resistance around 1.2185, whilst momentum holds below 100 and RSI turns south around 37 after correcting oversold readings.”

 

“Overall, the bearish tone prevails, with a break below the daily low probably seeing the pair extending its decline down to 1.2080 price zone.”

 

“Profit taking and risk aversion on the other hand, may see the pair accelerating north, with a break above the daily high favoring an upward extension up to 1.2220 price zone.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 30, 2014

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EUR/USD: Little activity as markets eye US consumer confidence – MP

 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kenny Fisher, Currency Analyst at Market Pulse, notes that the EUR/USD pair continues to trade quietly in the mid-1.21 range, as markets await the US consumer confidence report to be released today.


Key Quotes

 

“EUR/USD continues to trade quietly in the final year of 2014. In Tuesday’s European session, the pair is trading in the mid-1.21 range. The euro is struggling, having lost about 350 points in the past two weeks. On the release front, Spanish CPI posted a sharp decline of 1.1%, while Eurozone Private Loans came in at -0.9%, matching the forecast. In the US, today’s highlight is CB Consumer Confidence. The markets are expecting a strong reading for December, with the estimate standing at 94.6 points.”

 

“EUR/USD edged lower in the Asian session, testing support at 1.2143. The pair has reversed directions in the European session and posted gains.”

 

“1.2143 is a weak support level. 1.2042 is next. 1.2286 remains a strong resistance line.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 30, 2014

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EUR/USD: Little activity as markets eye US consumer confidence – MP

 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kenny Fisher, Currency Analyst at Market Pulse, notes that the EUR/USD pair continues to trade quietly in the mid-1.21 range, as markets await the US consumer confidence report to be released today.


Key Quotes

 

“EUR/USD continues to trade quietly in the final year of 2014. In Tuesday’s European session, the pair is trading in the mid-1.21 range. The euro is struggling, having lost about 350 points in the past two weeks. On the release front, Spanish CPI posted a sharp decline of 1.1%, while Eurozone Private Loans came in at -0.9%, matching the forecast. In the US, today’s highlight is CB Consumer Confidence. The markets are expecting a strong reading for December, with the estimate standing at 94.6 points.”

 

“EUR/USD edged lower in the Asian session, testing support at 1.2143. The pair has reversed directions in the European session and posted gains.”

 

“1.2143 is a weak support level. 1.2042 is next. 1.2286 remains a strong resistance line.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 30, 2014

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Probable contagion Greece situation might be balanced by ECB policy support – TradeTheNews

 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The TradeTheNews Team expects any major contagion arising out of the Greek political situation to be balanced by policy support from the ECB.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The EUR/USD initially drifted lower amid the brewing Greek political crisis that could fuel fears for the wider Euro Zone. The situation in Greece highlighted the view that the crisis in EMU was far from over. The EUR/USD was off fresh 2 year lows of 1.2124 as the European morning progressed.”

 

“Dealers and analysts noted that the Greek political situation was somewhat unique which limited the potential for contagion. Any major contagion would likely to be met with policy support from ECB.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 30, 2014

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USD closes 2014 just shy of its cycle-high – TDS

 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Shaun Osborne and Martin Schwerdtfeger, FX Strategists at TD Securities, share that USD struggled in the morning NA session, and closed lower on the day after seeing a fresh cycle high earlier in the day.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Equities firmly in the red across the board, lower — albeit just moderately — US Treasury yields, a stronger JPY, and higher gold prices checked most, if not all the boxes of a risk-off day yesterday.”

 

“The USD struggled during the morning NA session and was unable to recover, closing lower overall on the day. However, to put things on perspective, these losses came on the heels of a fresh cycle high for the greenback earlier in the day, and, despite the USD’s further modest decline since yesterday, the big dollar will most likely end 2014 just a few points shy of yesterday’s multi-year high.”

 

“Indeed, it seems the FX market is in full holiday mode already. Otherwise, ECB’s Executive Board member Praet comments about the impact of a further decline in crude oil prices since the cut-off date for the December economic projections implying a high risk of negative headline CPI for a good portion of 2015, which in his opinion calls for urgent action, should had seen EURUSD at least a few points lower than where the pair sits now — only two points below yesterday’s close.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 31, 2014

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USD/CAD bounces off 2-week lows

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CAD managed to hold support at the 1.1570 area and bounced toward the 1.1600 mark at the beginning of the American session as oil extends its decline weighing on the loonie.

 

Meanwhile, disappointing US jobless claims data had little impact on the pair. Claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose by 17K to 298K last week, recording the highest level in nearly 2 months and above the 280K expected. USD/CAD is currently trading at the 1.1600 zone, still a few pips below its opening price. 

 

"Overall, the CAD is poised to end 2014 with a loss in excess of 8% against the USD, except for 2009, its largest annual decline since 1992", says the TD Securities team. "We believe more CAD weakness lies ahead, and our 1.19 forecast for end Q3 could come to fruition earlier in the new year, especially if crude oil prices keep sliding. Bottom line, take advantage of dips to extend USD/CAD longs". 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 31, 2014

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EUR/USD approaches 2014 lows

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - After hovering around 1.2150 during a few hours EUR/USD broke to the downside and printed a fresh daily low at 1.2130, approaching yesterday’s low that lie at 1.2122. 

 

Economic data from the US showed an increase of initial jobless claims from 281.000 to 298.000, above expectations of 290.000. Despite the worst-than-expected data EUR/USD continued to move to the downside, making no rebound. 

 

The pair remains under pressure, trading slightly above daily lows, as the US dollar gained momentum across the board, with crude oil trading at fresh multi-year lows on the last trading day of 2014. 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 31, 2014

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GBP/USD rejects the 1.5620 and falls to test MA 200 hours at 1.5575

 

 


FXStreet (San Francisco) - The rally of sterling against the dollar from 1.5550 found resistance at 1.5620 area, where the pair experienced a selling interest that sent it back to test the level of MA 200 hours of 1.5575.

 

Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5576, up 0.13% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.5622 and low at 1.5550. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish. 

 

Ealier in the day, the GBP/USD rose since it was pressured to the upside from the EUR/GBP decline to lows since October. On a bigger timeframe, pound is on track to post its sixth monthly loss in a row in December and the year nearly 6% lower.

 

GBP/USD levels

 

Below the 1.5575, the GBP/USD will find supports at 1.5550 and 1.5500. To the upside, resistances are at 1.5620, 1.5660 and 1.5680. 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 31, 2014

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USD/CHF rises back above 0.9900

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The US dollar strengthened across the board ahead of the last trading session in Wall Street and pushed USD/CHF back above 0.9900. 

 

The pair printed a fresh daily highs at 0.9910 and approached 2014 highs that lie at 0.9918 (Dec 30). In the US, initial jobless claims rose more than expected to 298.000 last week but despite the economic report, greenback continued to rise in the market. 

 

USD/CHF is rising 0.17% today and over the year has gained more than 11%, having the best year since 2005.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 31, 2014

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AUD/USD erased gains and fell below 0.8170

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD weakened and reversed the daily trend falling 40 pips during the last three hours. The pair failed to hold above 0.8200 and dropped to 0.8168, reaching a fresh daily low. 

 

The aussie failed to hold to gains after trading at 2-week highs while the US dollar gained momentum across the board, hitting fresh highs after Wall Street opening bell. 

 

AUD/USD technical levels

 

To the downside, support levels might lie at 0.8155 and below at 0.8120 (Dec 30 low) while to the upside resistance could be located at 0.8190, 0.8215 (daily high) and 0.8255. 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 31, 2014

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USD/CHF at highs since July 2012

 

 

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The USD/CHF is enjoying its negative correlation with the EUR/USD and after a 35-pip rise from 0.9890, the pair jumped to trade at highs since July 2012 at 0.9925.

 

Regarding the EUR/USD, it pushed lower and hit a fresh 29-month to bid farewell to the year 2014 as euro weakened following London's close.

 

Currently, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9910, up 0.20% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.9928 and low at 0.9879. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing overbought conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish. 

 

USD/CHF levels

 

If the pair consolidates gains above 0.9900, next resistances are at 0.925 and 1.0000. To the downside, supports are at 0.9900, 0.9890 and 0.9880.  

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 31, 2014

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Crude oil hits fresh multi-year lows

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Oil prices extended its decline during the last trading day of the year amid oversupply concerns.

 

Crude oil fell more than 2% and hit a fresh 5-year low of $52.68 a barrel before recovering somewhat. Oil is trading at $53.35/bbl, still on track to post a 43% loss in 2014, its biggest annual decline since 2008, as the OPEC refrained from cutting output to keep the price high.

 

The latest US government report on oil inventories showed stockpiles decreased by 1.8 million barrels during the last week. On the other hand, the American Petroleum Institute reported Tuesday US crude inventories rose by 760,000 barrels last week versus expectations of a 100,000 barrels decline. 

  

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 31, 2014

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Euro rapidly approaching June 2010 low of $1.1877 – BBH

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman shares the FX performance for majors, and suggests that the EUR/USD pair is rapidly approaching the June 2010 low of 1.1877 after it made a fresh low at 1.2035 levels.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The euro broke below the mid-2012 low to trade at $1.2035, rapidly approaching the June 2010 low of 1.1877. Euro-area final PMI manufacturing for December came in slightly lower at 50.6, but more significantly, Draghi made some more dovish comments during an interview to a German newspaper yesterday. He reinforced the ECB’s reediness to act and his concerns about deflation.”

 

“The New Zealand dollar is the weakest major currency on the day, falling to $0.7750 against the dollar, but still well within recent ranges.”

 

“The pound is also underperforming, falling to a 16-month low of 1.5470 after a weaker UK PMI figure for December, at 52.5 compared with 53.6 expected.”

 

“The dollar is back above the ¥120.0 level against the yen, in part supported by comments by BoJ governor Kuroda saying that the bank still has tools to meet the CPI target.”

 

“The Indonesian rupiah fell over 1% following a shockingly weak set of trade prints for December. Exports fell -14.5% y/y (exp. -4.5%) and imports were -7.3% (exp. +0.1%), leading to a -$426 mln trade deficit. The ruble is back on the defensive again, falling 1.0% against the basket.” 

 

 

 


 

 

Jan 02,2015

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 


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