OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis

[OctaFX_Farid]

 

 

 

OctaFX.Com - Forex Analysis: Dollar Slowly, Consistently Edges Lower as Equities Swing

 

 

 

Dollar Slowly, Consistently Edges Lower as Equities Swing

The US Presidential elections have a long standing influence over investor confidence. The outcome of political power in the world’s largest economy can significantly influence growth, trade and financial regulation. However, as with any economic event, this particular driver is set within a hierarchy of fundamental impact. Regardless of who wins the election, it would still be a struggle to answer the United States’ Fiscal Cliff. Furthermore, we have other big-ticket items such as the Euro-area crisis, Chinese regime change and Japanese fiscal countdown that all denote a distinctive impact on global markets. With that in mind, we recognize the market’s unusual activity over the past 24 hours. It is very similar to how we approach the average NFPs release: even though the event’s outcome is not likely to have a lasting influence over a fundamentally-crowded market, the uncertainty its presence carries pumps volatility and sidelines trend generation.

Now, as we move forward, we may very well see risk trends regain traction and revive cross-market correlations. Through the past trading session, we witnessed a significant deviation between the standard ‘risk’ measures. While the S&P 500 rallied sharply into resistance (13,300), the Forex’s safe haven US dollar was holding relatively steady. Soon after the NY market close, equities took to a quick reversal while the dollar accelerated into its decline with EURUSD moving back above 1.2825 – yet another contradictory sentiment move. As the election results started to take shape in the overnight, however, risk’s influence started to firm up. With the dollar holding onto its losses, the equity futures found a moderate bounce. Revived correlations are a strong step towards developing a lasting trend. Yet, does a resolution of the US vote equate to a better investment environment. The bigger, international concerns aside; the unconfirmed vote tally leaves the United States with a divided Congress that may struggle to force necessary budgetary changes to avoid the looming fiscal cliff.

 

Euro May Climb on US Crisis Distraction - Juncker

 

Most policy makers (fiscal and monetary) follow academic lines of thought in their expectations of how their efforts will impact their economies and currencies. However, every now-and-then there is an official that acknowledges the speculative influence in the market. Euro Group head Jean-Claude Juncker revealed a streak of ‘trader’ in his outlook when he remarked early Wednesday morning that the US Fiscal Cliff could direct negative attention away from the Euro-area (offsetting the more ‘cheerleading’ effort in suggesting Europe’s fundamentals were better than those of the US and Japan). From a real world market perspective, the countdown to the United States’ self-imposed deficit adjustment can paint a far less stable situation than the more measured austerity balance in the Eurozone.

That said, there are two variables in this austerity comparison. The euro’s own fundamental issues are more immediate than the end-of-the-year countdown for the US. This past session, Greece’s general strike set the backdrop to the Parliamentary vote on the new austerity bill (reportedly aiming to cut pensions by 15 percent and raise the retirement age). Spain’s Rajoy suggested he would not ask for a rescue unless forced to - saying he needed to be certain it would lower yields. Today is a Euro-risk lull. Thursday brings forecasts, meetings and the ECB decision.

 

Australian Dollar Presses Through Risk Trends on Improved Rate Outlook

 

Risk trends have shifted back and forth over the past 24 hours, yet the Aussie dollar maintained its bullish ambitions. While US equity futures took a dive through the early Wednesday trading session, AUDUSD held steady above 1.0400. This is partially due to the greenback’s own lack of commitment; but other, less investment-sensitive Aussie pairs (AUDNZD, AUDCAD, GBPAUD) have shown a consistent support for the commodity currency. This additional strength can be easily traced back to the RBA. The central bank held its benchmark lending rate yesterday morning to catch a significant portion of the market off guard. With the market pricing in a 47 percent probability of a cut and 20 of 27 economists in a Bloomberg poll expecting the same, there was a surprise quotient. The 12-month rate outlook now calls for only 50 bps worth of cuts.

Japanese Yen: Officials Want Risk Trends, Stimulus to Weigh Currency

With the volatility on risk trends elevated, the Japanese yen is under scrutiny. However, policy officials are no doubt hoping that the US election results can sustain a buoyant outlook. Yesterday, BoJ Executive Director Hayakawa (in charge of monitoring the financial system) stated his belief that the bank’s new lending program (unlimited at a marginal 0.1 percent) could weaken the currency. His supposition was that this effort would translate into a pickup in carry interest. However, carry is a global factor and rates are low worldwide. What they need is true risk appetite.

 

New Zealand Dollar Advances after RBNZ Financial Report, Ahead of Jobs Data

 

Green RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler is keeping up the effort of stirring speculative interest in the kiwi. The central banker released the Financial Stability Report this morning. In the statement, Wheeler said stated that he believed it was unlikely that the kiwi exchange rate would fall significantly going forward – adding weight to his dismissal of QE. Up next, we have jobs figures for hard data.

 

Swiss Franc: FX Reserves Expected to Build, Though Euro Share Under Scrutiny

 

The Swiss National Bank already holds 432 billion francs in foreign currency reserves – a record for the group and one of the highest amongst its counterparts. The update for October is due in the upcoming European session and a fresh high is expected. However, those monitoring the EURCHF will be more concerned about the possible composition of holdings. The central bank has slowly diversified away from euros recently.

Gold Surges During US Election, Trend is a Dollar Matter

There was some speculation amongst the gold bugs that if the US election went a certain way, Fed Chairman Bernanke would be ousted and the policy of stimulus expansion would be reversed with his exit. It is a stretch to say the metal rallied because this scenario was disproved; but it would be outright dangerous to trade on this belief carrying a lasting influence. The next move for gold will be based on the dollar.

 

 

 

Nov 7, 2012

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 

[OctaFX_Farid]

 

 

 

OctaFX.Com - Forex Analysis: Dollar Selling on US Election Result May Be Fleeting

 

 

 

The US Dollar fell on waning haven demand as risk appetite firmed following a clear-cut outcome to the US election but markets’ chipper mood may be short-lived.

 

Talking Points

 

• US Dollar Falls on Swelling Risk Appetite After US Election Outcome
  
• S&P 500 Futures Hint Sentiment Likely to Stay Supported Near-Term
  
• Markets’ Chipper Mood May Unravel as “Fiscal Cliff” Fears Resurface
  
• Euro May Underperform if Greece Fails to Pass New Austerity Plan
  

 

 

The US Dollar weakened in overnight trade as risk appetite swelled across financial markets – weakening forex traders’ demand for the go-to haven currency – in the aftermath of the US general election. The ballot handed victory to President Barack Obama while challenger Governor Mitt Romney conceded. As we argued yesterday, any outcome that produced a clear winner was likely to be greeted by investors hopeful for a swift re-orientation toward resolving the looming “fiscal cliff” fiasco.

 

Looking ahead, a quiet economic calendar is likely to keep the election front and center as financial markets around the world take their opportunity to respond to the results. S&P 500 stock index futures have erased earlier losses ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, suggesting the risk-on bias into the hours ahead. Investors’ chipper mood may not prove lasting however, opening the door for the greenback to mount a swift recovery.

 

All signs appear to point to an extension of the status quo in the US political landscape, with President Obama’s victory matched by another Democrat-controlled Senate and Republican-dominated House of Representatives. That may spark fears of renewed deadlock as markets tremble at the thought that a set of automatic spending cuts and tax hikes slated to trigger at the turn of the calendar year will tip the US back into recession. Such prospect bodes ill for global growth in an environment where the Eurozone is contracting while China slows.

 

In Europe, all eyes are on Greece where the parliament will vote on an austerity package agreed-upon by the Samaras administration and the EU/ECB/IMF troika. Fears that opposition parties will torpedo the poll and delay the release of the latest tranche of bailout funds has scope to trim risk appetite and dent the ability of the Euro to capitalize on the post-US election festivities.

 

On the data front, German Industrial Production is seen falling for a second consecutive month in September while Eurozone Retail Sales snap four months of gains to yield a negative print in the same period.

 

 

 

 

Nov 7, 2012

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 

[OctaFX_Farid]

 

OctaFX.Com -Euro weakens as eyes turn to ECB meeting

 

 

 

 

LONDON (Reuters) - The euro fell to a two-month low on Thursday despite approval of a crucial austerity package by Greece, with investors focused on a European Central Bank policy meeting later in the day.

 

The ECB is widely expected to leave interest rates on hold, but comments by President Mario Draghi on the weak economic outlook and gloomy European Commission forecasts have raised speculation it might just cut its main rate from 0.75 percent.

"If you wander around the trading floors they are flirting with the idea we could get a cut from the ECB today," said Daragh Maher, director of FX strategy at HSBC.

The common currency was down 0.1 percent at $1.2765, not far from Wednesday's two-month low of $1.2736.

 

The euro was under pressure even though the Greek parliament approved in the early hours of Thursday an austerity package needed to unlock international aid and avert bankruptcy, defying political rifts and violent protests.

 

CLIFF EDGE LOOMS

 

The dollar was up 0.1 percent, near a two-month high against a basket of major currencies of 80.924 (.DXY) hit on Wednesday, as concerns about U.S. fiscal problems raise its safe-haven appeal.

Investors fear the preservation of the status quo in Washington after this week's elections means may make it hard to reach a deal on about $600 billion in spending cuts and tax increases due to start early next year, and that this could derail the U.S. economic recovery.

The "fiscal cliff", which can be avoided only if Democrats and Republicans settle their differences in Congress, provoked a selloff on Wall Street on Wednesday. Asian markets followed suit, pushing the MSCI world equity index <.MIWD00000PUS> down 0.2 percent at 326.13 points.

 

"The fiscal cliff is here and it will reveal itself to be very real," said Jeffrey Sica, president of Sica Wealth Management.

 

Sica said higher capital gains taxes could form part of a Congressional deal to tackle the budget deficit, and this may be encouraging investors to sell equities. "The strong likelihood that capital gains (could) double will force investors to take profits now to avoid paying higher capital gains taxes later," he said.

In Europe the FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3), which lost 1.4 percent in Wednesday's selloff, recovered slightly on Thursday to be up 0.15 percent at 1,100.85 points. London's FTSE 100 (.FTSE), Paris's CAC-40 (.FCHI) and Frankfurt's DAX (.GDAXI) all traded around 0.25 percent higher. (.L) (.EU)

U.S. stock futures were also higher, up 0.2 percent, pointing to a recovery when Wall Street opens. (.N)

 

SPANISH TEST

 

In the fixed income market the approaching ECB meeting kept most prices little changed. Much attention focused on a Spanish sale of 4.8 billion euros ($6 billion) of new debt, which included a 20-year bond - the longest dated issue to be auctioned since mid-2011.

The sale drew good demand as Spain's debt has been trading in relatively narrow ranges since the ECB promised to step in buy unlimited amounts of the bonds, provided Madrid requests help and agrees to a closely-monitored economic reform programme.

Spanish 10-year bond yields gained 5 basis points after the auction at 5.77 percent, but German 10-year bonds, often an indicator of any change of sentiment in the euro zone, were largely unchanged at 1.38 percent.

Commodities markets focused on developments in China where the government has begun a once-in-a-decade leadership change against a backdrop of growing social unrest and public anger at corruption and a gap between rich and poor.

Traders are looking for hints from the Communist Party Congress on future policy direction that may affect demand from the world's biggest consumer of many industrial commodities.

 

"So far, contents of speeches from the 18th Party Congress have been within expectations. There hasn't been anything particularly encouraging to investors," said Orient Futures derivatives director Andy Du.

 

Oil rose after tumbling more than $4 on Wednesday amid concerns about weak demand for fuel as the U.S. and European economies face the risk of a prolonged slowdown.

Brent Crude traded 56 cents higher at $107.35 per barrel after posting its steepest fall since 2011 on Wednesday. U.S. crude rose 56 cents to $84.99 a barrel. (O/R) ($1 = 0.7840 euros)

 

 

Nov 8, 2012

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

[OctaFX_Farid]

 

 

OctaFx - Forex Analysis: US Dollar Classic Technical Report 11.09.2012

 

 

 

Prices continue to flirt with 9963, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Support is reinforced by a rising trend line set from the October 17 low (9933).

 

A drop below this barrier aims for a support cluster in the 9861-85 area. Channel resistance is at 10006, with a break above that aiming for the 50% Fib at 10032.

 

 

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

 

Nov 9, 2012

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

[OctaFX_Farid]

 

 

OctaFx - Forex Analysis: US Dollar Classic Technical Report 11.09.2012

 

 

 

Prices continue to flirt with 9963, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Support is reinforced by a rising trend line set from the October 17 low (9933).

 

A drop below this barrier aims for a support cluster in the 9861-85 area. Channel resistance is at 10006, with a break above that aiming for the 50% Fib at 10032.

 

 

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

 

Nov 9, 2012

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

[OctaFX_Farid]

 

OctaFx - Privacy Policy

 

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

OctaFX sets the highest standards in respect to our clients, partners or any other counterparties' privacy. Under no circumstances, unless under court decision or legal request, can the data be disclosed.

 

Protection

 

All the client data are protected by an SSL-encrypted connection to our Personal Area at http://www.octafx.com. It is highly unlikely that this encryption becomes disclosed to any third party.

 

Personal Information

 

When you open a real account, certain personal information is required. This information allows us to estimate your financial needs, process your requests and transactions, and keep you informed about our upcoming products and services.

Required information may include: full name, address and birth date. In a number of cases we might require your identity confirmation, as set forth in the Customer Agreement. This includes passport or drivers license, or any other ID and a residential address proof.

Anti-Money Laundering ("AML") regulations requires financial institutions to collect information and take action where necessary, in order to verify a customer's identity.

 

Cookies

 

We use a technology called "cookies", which enables us to provide you with a better experience in using our website by sending small text files from our servers to your computer. These cookies do not track your private information.

 

Affiliates

 

We may share some or all of the personal information described above with our affiliates in order to service client accounts or inform clients of new products and services. Our affiliates may include companies controlled or owned by us, as well as companies which have an ownership interest in our company. Our affiliates maintain the privacy of your information in the same manner and to the same extent as we do, and in accordance with this privacy policy.

 

Third Parties

 

We do not disclose your personal information to third parties, unless described in this privacy policy. Third party disclosures may include sharing such information with non-affiliated companies that perform support services for your account.

 

Regulators

 

Your personal information disclosure might be necessary in order to comply with applicable laws and regulations. This may include disclosing personal information in order to cooperate with regulatory authorities and law enforcement agencies, as may be necessary to protect our property or rights.

 

Payment Information

 

We do not keep nor store, in any form, customer payment information.

 

 

[OctaFX_Farid]

 

 

 

 

OctaFX.Com - Forex Analysis: New Zealand Dollar To Maintain Range-Bound Price On RBNZ Policy

 

 

 

 

 

 

The New Zealand dollar pared the rebound from 0.8100 as the economic calendar instilled a weakened outlook for the region, but we may see the high-yielding currency preserve the range-bound price action carried over from the previous month as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) persistently strikes a neutral tone for monetary policy. Indeed, the NZDUSD quickly fell back from a fresh monthly high of 0.8307 as New Zealand’s jobless rate advanced to 7.3% - the highest since 1999 – and the ongoing weakness in the real economy may continue to drag on the exchange rate as it spurs bets for a rate cut.

 

However, RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler argued that lowering the benchmark interest rate further would have a limited impact in triggering a ‘major depreciation in the exchange rate in the short term,’ and continued to highlight the risk for a higher exchange rate should ‘New Zealand’s relative growth outlook continued to be perceived as favorable despite the lower terms of trade.’ At the same time, the central bank head warned ‘excessive credit growth could hinder rebalancing of the economy and accentuate existing vulnerabilities’ as household and businesses take advantage of record-low borrowing costs, and the uptick in private sector borrowing will certainly limit the RBNZ’s scope to ease policy further as it heightens the risk for an asset bubble.

 

As the RBNZ sees the persistent strength in the local currency having a dampening effect on the real economy, we may see Governor Wheeler continue to rely on the transmission mechanisms to talk down the exchange rate, and we should see the central bank carry its wait-and-see approach into the following year as policy makers anticipate the rebuilding efforts from the Christchurch earthquake to spur domestic growth. Despite the dismal data coming out of the region, Credit Suisse overnight index swaps reflect a 22% chance for a 25bp rate cut at the December 5 meeting, and the central bank may continue to endorse a neutral policy stance in 2013 in order to mitigate the threat for an asset bubble.

 

As the 10, 20, 50 and 100 Day moving averages on the NZDUSD start to converge with one another, the indicators instill a neutral outlook for the pair, and the kiwi-dollar may continue to track sideways ahead of the December meeting as it trades above the 0.7900 figure.

 

However, we will keep a close eye on the relative strength index as it comes up against interim support around the 42 figure, and the oscillator may paint a bearish outlook for the NZDUSD should it continue to approach oversold territory.

 

 

Nov 10, 2012

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

[OctaFX_Farid]

 

 

 

 

OctaFX.Com - Forex: Dollar Looks for Breakout Under Fiscal Cliff Insecurity

 

 

 

 

 

 

Even the most optimistic investor has to be nervous about the state of risk appetite. This past week, the benchmark US equity indexes (Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500) broke critical levels of support and plunged to three-month lows.

 

That is a considerable warning that a bigger speculative deleveraging effort is under way. The shift from this particular market is particularly remarkable. Not only are equities the average investor’s ‘risky’ or growth-sensitive asset, but the Federal Reserve has further backstopped the market through stimulus. In other words, a turn here speaks to the kind of concern that not even a central bank guarantee can prevent. Under this kind of pressure, we would expect the Forex market’s preferred safe haven currency (the US dollar) to surge. So why hasn’t it taken off yet?

 

 

Looking back at the greenback’s performance this past week, we see that progress has been uneven at best. The benchmark EURUSD has slipped to two-month lows below 1.2750 and GBPUSD has followed suit. That said, the far more risk-sensitive AUDUSD and NZDUSD have refused to definitively reverse their respective bull trends – an odd thing for carry pairs that should be exceptionally sensitive to sentiment trends. Furthermore, pulling back from the ebb and flow of risk, USDJPY has retreated sharply even though the yen faces immediate fundamental troubles with its fiscal health.

 

Ultimately, it is the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) that best illustrates the reticence of the world’s reserve currency. Congestion has been tamed by the 100-day moving average and pulsating 10,000 figure above.

 

Over the past months, we have seen a few disconnects between benchmark measures – though they haven’t been quite as flagrant. In most of those cases, the grounds for the divergence were a lack of conviction. Risk aversion (or risk appetite) wasn’t fully established, so either one asset was moving because it was extremely sensitive to sentiment or there was otherwise a completely different fundamental driver in play.

 

There is an element of disbelief to this move as well. While there is plenty of fundamental fuel to raze sentiment to the ground (slowing growth, a downturn in earnings growth, Euro-area debt crisis, Asian financial troubles, US fiscal crisis, etc), we need the spark from the speculative ranks to ensure the spark catches.

 

 

While hesitation is certainly an aspect, deleveraging is starting to give an active face to otherwise intangible fundamental worry. The moves we are starting to see should have leveraged more of a response from the dollar. Something else was acting against this straightforward speculative reaction – a buffer. That extra facet is the primary source of the fear that has developed - the ‘Fiscal Cliff’. This is a media-derived term that refers to a sudden expiration of tax cuts and implementation of spending cuts – activated at the end of the year if the US government cannot find a solution to rein the budget in.

 

 

The $600 billion impact the cliff entails would easily drive the US economy to recession and carry serious ramifications for the global markets that are already on shaky footing. Normally, this would be a significant booster for the dollar. Why? Though the US would be the point of origin, the backdraft would be a global event that sent investors the world over seeking safety in the most liquid and trustworthy assets – ironically enough, the dollar and Treasuries. Yet, not this time. There is another element to this explosive mix. If the fiscal cliff scenario plays out, it would likely lead to a US downgrade. That would lower (marginally, but substantive) the dollar’s safe haven status.

As we must often do as speculators, tracking out the path from here runs on the most probable outcomes and expectations as to how speculators will respond. It is highly unlikely that the US plummets over the fiscal cliff – though even if it did, the backlash of the diminished safe haven status would be short-lived and the dollar would rally back eventually.

 

The more contentious scenario is that the budgetary issue is solved and the market expects it. As the most prolific threat to stability, the absence of this risk could lead to a rebound in risk and dollar tumble. There are other issues however. The dollar needs fiscal cliff uncertainty and broad risk aversion.

 

 

Nov 10, 2012

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

[OctaFX_Farid]

 

Forex: Commodity Currencies Rally, but Euro Remains Lower

 

 

 

ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP

 

A quiet US trading session is on the horizon in light of the Veteran’s Day holiday, which has bond markets closed and lower volumes expected throughout the day on Monday. Nevertheless, with Asian and European markets fully online, there are have been some noteworthy developments that have influenced price action today worth discussing.

 

Yesterday, the Samaras-led Greek government had its 2013 budget passed in parliament, clearing the way for Euro-zone finance ministers to vote on the next tranche of Greek aid later on today.

 

Although the event would typically yield a more positive risk horizon, it appears that the measures passed will fall short of pan-European approval. A meeting is set for later today that should provide insight into this process. We expect some sort of intermediate measures to be proposed that keeps Greece afloat over the next few weeks, as the country is expected to run out of money (again) in the next week or so.

 

 

The Euro seems to be reflecting this lack of enthusiasm, as the European currencies have trailed their Asia and North American counterparts for most of the day. With the US fiscal cliff squarely in focus – and freshly reelected President Barack Obama convening with Congressional leaders later this week – the Japanese Yen remains well-supported, while Gold and Silver continue to outperform and lead the broader market, as they have since their mid-September highs.

 

 

Taking a look at credit, Euro weakness has been reflected by weakness in periphery bonds. The Italian 2-year note yield has increased to 2.318% (+2.5-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has increased to 3.139 % (+8.7-bps). Likewise, the Italian 10-year note yield has increased to 4.995% (+3.4-bps) while the Spanish 10-year note yield has increased to 5.842% (+5.0-bps); higher yields imply lower prices.

 

Nov 12, 2012

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

[OctaFX_Farid]

 

OctaFX.com- Forex Analysis: Trading Strategies Continue Buying US Dollar

 

 

 

Article Summary: Our forex sentiment-based trading strategies have turned heavily long the US Dollar against major forex counterparts. Said systems have done well in recently-slow market conditions. And though past performance is not indicative of future results, we favor trading systems that have produced fairly consistent results across USD pairs.

 

DailyFX PLUS System Trading Signals –The US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) trades at multi-month peaks versus the Euro and other major counterparts; current market conditions suggest the Greenback could see further gains.

 

We believe that the US Dollar may have set a significant bottom against the Euro and other counterparts on an important shift in forex sentiment. A key caveat remains, however: FX volatility levels trade near their lowest levels since the onset of the financial crisis. The safe-haven US currency tends to do well during times of financial market turmoil, and exceedingly steady market conditions often produce Dollar weakness.

 

Yet we won’t argue with price action, and the fact remains that the USD currency remains in a steady uptrend—producing strong trend trading signals. Our forex sentiment-based trading signals are currently long the USD versus the Euro, Australian Dollar, British Pound, Canadian Dollar,and New Zealand Dollar. And though past performance is not indicative of future results, these trend trades have done reasonably well in recent months.

 

We’ll stick to trend trades in several US Dollar pairs, but be wary of potentially choppy short-term price moves amidst extremely low forex options market volatility readings.

 

 

 

DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias

 

 

 

 

Nov 12, 2012

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 

[OctaFX_Farid]

 

 

 

OctaFX.Com - Trouble Brews for Euro as Greece Worries Grow

 

 

 

 

 

 

The euro, which hit a two-month low against the dollar on Tuesday as hopes that Greece would receive essential aid soon faded, faces further losses as concern about Greece's future grow, currency analysts warn.

 

The International Monetary Fund and euro zone officials on Monday failed to agree to a long-term plan to cut Greece's debt, preventing the release of immediate aid to Athens and pushing the euro (JPY) to a low of $1.2681 in Asian trade.

Now more losses could be in store for the single currency, which has already shed 3.7 percent of its value against the dollar since hitting a peak in mid-September.

 

"It's been a very protracted process and we have to say that it's taken rather longer than we had anticipated," Sean Callow, senior currency strategist with Westpac Bank in Sydney told CNBC Asia's "Squawk Box" on Tuesday, referring to the negotiations over Greece.

 

"We're becoming increasingly bearish on the euro and we have pretty much given up on our previous expectation for it to recapture $1.30," he added.

 

The euro zone is facing pressure to ink a deal on Greece as Athens has to redeem 5 billion euros ($6.35 billion) worth of treasury bills on November 16 and was dependent on funds from the next euro zone aid tranche to tide it over.

(Read More: Greece Running Out of Cash; Government Under Threat)

This is looking increasingly unlikely. The next meeting of euro zone's finance ministers, who met in Brussels on Monday, takes place on November 20, according to Euro group president Jean-Claude Juncker.

It does not look like the money will be available in time and Greece now plans to issue new one-month and three-month treasury bills on Tuesday to raise one billion euros and 2.1 billion euros, respectively.

But this is a short-term fix and until an agreement is reached on how to make Greek debt more sustainable, the euro will likely remain under pressure, analysts say.

Change of Fortune

The euro received a significant boost on July 26 after European Central Bank president Mario Draghi said the bank will do "whatever it takes" to prevent the euro zone from collapsing, sending the currency about 8 percent higher over 3 months. This rally looks like it's unravelling as markets worry about the consequences of a Greek debt default or the nation's exit from the euro zone.

(Read more: "Grexit" could spark global economic crisis: German think tank)

"We know that the Greek government will run out of money if it does not receive its next aid payment by the end of the month," Kathy Lien, managing director of BK Asset Management said in a note on Tuesday.

 

"While everyone knows that the stakes are high and a default by Greece would spell big trouble for the euro zone as a whole, policymakers are dragging their heels and it is hurting the euro."

 

Lien said she is awaiting more comments on Greece, especially on Germany's vote, on which the disbursement of any additional aid to Greece depends. Any additional release of German financing to Greece, as well as alterations to the terms of its bailout, would require passage by the full German parliament, which will be in session next week.

 

"If we are lucky, Germany will vote and approve Greek aid next week because if they fail to do so, investors will become even more concerned about what could happen at the end of the month," she said.

 

Until a deal is reached, the euro could test its 100-day moving average level around $1.2639, Credit Agricole's head of global forex strategy Mitul Kotecha said in a note on Tuesday.

 

"Some clues to the timing of the next Greek loan disbursement will undoubtedly help the currency, assuming that it is not too far into the future,"

Kotecha said.

 

"The euro will also need today's (Tuesday's) Greek treasury bill auction to go well to give it some support. Unfortunately for the currency the risks are still skewed to the downside," he said.

 

 

 

 

Nov 13, 2012

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 

[OctaFX_Farid]

 

 

 

OctaFX.Com - Forex: British Pound Leads Majors After Inflation Data

 

 

 

 

 

 

ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP

 

The volatile supply-demand relationship that governs investors’ appetite for risky assets is at a stand still for a second consecutive day on Tuesday, as investors continue to clamor for safety amid renewed concerns out of Greece, all while the US fiscal cliff has come into focus following last week’s US Presidential Elections. S&P 500 futures are barely pointing lower, and a mid-morning rally by the European currencies has begun what could be an intraday reversal ahead of the US session.

 

With some commentary on Greece coming from German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaueble, there’s been very little of significance across the wires elsewhere this morning. Instead, the focus has been on data out of the United Kingdom, which has propelled the British Pound to the top performer today.

 

The Consumer Price Index for October showed yearly inflation of +2.7% versus +2.4% expected, easily missing the consensus forecast provided by Bloomberg News. But this print best illustrates a recent problem for Bank of England policymakers, especially since the 2007-2008 financial crisis: an inability to accurately diagnose inflation problems. UK Gilts yields rose following the release, boosting the prospective return on the British Pound, thus allowing it to appreciate to the top spot on the day.

 

The British economy is weak, but has shown signs of improvement in recent months, with the third quarter growth reading beating expectations handily last month (as I noted then, this appears to be a one-off event given bank holidays and the London Olympics). If the uptick in inflation is demand-pull in nature (the good kind: higher rates of employment boost consumption, which force sellers to raise prices to keep supply-demand relationship at equilibrium), then today’ October CPI release looks constructive.

 

Taking a look at credit, weakness in peripheral bonds may be holding back the Euro on Tuesday. The Italian 2-year note yield has increased to 2.355% (+0.8-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has increased to 3.202 % (+5.3-bps). Similarly, the Italian 10-year note yield has increased to 5.108% (+0.6-bps) while the Spanish 10-year note yield has increased to 5.909% (+4.6-bps); higher yields imply lower prices.

 

 

 

 

Nov 13, 2012

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 

[OctaFX_Farid]

 

 

 

 

OctaFX.com- Forex: Dollar So Close to a Bullish Surge, What Does it Take?

 

 

 

 

 

• Dollar So Close to a Bullish Surge, What Does it Take?
  
• Euro Finds Little Bounce From Greece Hole Plug, Spain Rescue Rumors
  
• British Pound Rallies Briefly After CPI Data, Right Back Towards 1.5850
  
• Japanese Yen: Risk Aversion May have Wavered but the Yen Hasn’t
  
• Swiss Franc at Two Month High Versus Euro, 1.2000 in Sight
  
• Australian Dollar Losing Steam on Rate Outlook, Bullishness Deflating
  
• Gold Makes a Bearish Turn but Commitment Lacking Without Dollar
  

 

 

 

 

New to FX? Watch thisVideo; For live market updates, visitDailyFX’s Real Time News Feed

Dollar So Close to a Bullish Surge, What Does it Take?

 

The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) has held just below critical resistance and fresh two month lows since risk-trends were rejected despite the otherwise ‘better-than-expected’ October payrolls. Taking a look at the chart of the Dollar Index, we find the big-ticket 10,000 figure is complimented by the 100 and 200-day moving averages – considerable weight to any technical trader. However, the most remarkable technical read on the greenback is also a very telling fundamental consideration: the average true range (ATR). Measuring the average of the currency’s daily range (on a rolling 10-day basis), we find that the dollar has carved out the smallest rate of activity since high and low data have been recorded – so since at least January 2011. Altogether, that tells us a significant swell of volatility is soon at hand.

These measures of activity on the technical level are mirrored with what we have seen fundamentally. As the US benchmark equities have led a questionable march higher for riskier assets over the past months and years, we have also seen the FX Volatility Index slide to lows not seen since before the financial crisis in 2008 (the index is currently at 7.41 percent). The standard volatility indicators are both measures of insurance costs against adverse price movements and more elementally ‘fear’ gauges. Therefore, when these measures of risk rise, it is generally in response to a more active move towards risk aversion. That is a strong factor for the greenback – if and when it happens. Yet, we have seen the volatility measures continuously trend lower against a trend of more obvious troubles in growth trends, financial crises and fiscal imbalances.

Though it doesn’t necessarily have to jump start a watershed event in speculative positioning, a sudden return of volatility through the immediate future is a particularly credible threat. That being said, this may be a pickup in activity that defies the common convention that a big swing in price action necessarily translates into risk aversion (a disconnect that would most likely bypass the traditional volatility readings). Markets are currently positions such that they reflect the ‘tail risk’ (low probability, but high impact potential) that the Euro-area crisis will hit critical mass and / or the US will hit the wall that is its Fiscal Cliff. Recently, however, EU officials have managed to by Greece a few more weeks and lawmakers on both sides of the US political spectrum have voiced confidence in a budget resolution. Winding down those factors could boost risk trends – and likely will. The critical question is how much is the market weighing this possible short-term relief against the obviously, long-term problems…

 

Euro Finds Little Bounce from Greece Hole Plug, Spain Rescue Rumors

 

European officials are struggling to put out fires as the flames come progressively closer with each swell. The newswires have been crowded by headlines that are clearly aimed at provoking fear in a rapidly deteriorating financial situation in the Eurozone. Yet, through all the countdowns to Greece running out of money, the questions over whether the Spain will ask for an official rescue and other (lesser) concerns that have intensified this past week; the euro has posted limited – though consistent – downside progress. In contrast, recent positive developments / speculation have yielded just as little return in the Euro’s favor. Between a bill auction yesterday and allowance of Asset Backed Securities use as collateral, Greece looks like it will be able to cover the bond maturity that happens on Friday. On another front, rumors were running in the speculative circles that Spain would soon seek a bailout. Neither risk (EURUSD) nor anti-risk (EURAUD) pair closed in the green for the euro. Perhaps the market is awaiting today’s event risk: Greek and Portuguese 3Q GDP. There is no misinterpret ting these reports.

 

British Pound Rallies Briefly After CPI Data, Right Back Towards 1.5850

 

In quiet trading conditions, traditional fundamental releases – that would otherwise struggle for face time in market influence against larger themes like risk trends – can have a bigger impact on price action. That was the case with the pound and CPI data this past session. The headline CPI reading for October rose 2.7 percent on a year-over-year basis – a pickup from the lowest reading since November 2009. GBPUSD and other pound pairs responded with a brief bounce, but it wouldn’t hold. The BoE will not be hiking rates anytime soon.

 

Japanese Yen: Risk Aversion May have Wavered but the Yen Hasn’t

 

We have seen a strong risk aversion move this past week – though it may have been uneven across the markets – and the yen has certainly benefit the safe haven seeking. The only problem is that policy officials are trying to push the currency lower to offer some relief to the economy through exports. It is likely doubly frustrating that with recent hints over the past 24 hours at a possible bounce in risk trends that the yen has continued to gain ground against all of its counterparts. We have to wonder at what point, Japanese authorities will mimic the SNB.

 

Swiss Franc at Two Month High Versus Euro, 1.2000 in Sight

 

SNB President Jordan must not be happy. Two months ago, the EURCHF exchange rate finally picked up from the central bank’s force-imposed 1.2000-floor without the express influence of policy authority. Tail risk on the Euro-crisis seemed to ease and the safe haven flows reversed. Today, however, we are only 35 pips off that floor once again. After this brief jaunt, the market may realize the SNB will have to push it higher.

 

Australian Dollar Losing Steam on Rate Outlook, Bullishness Deflating

 

The Australian dollar seems to be relentless. The currency has climbed against the dollar and yen despite risk aversion moves from US equities this past week. And, despite the even footing, it has also advanced against fellow safe haven – the New Zealand dollar. The market hasn’t fully committed to risk aversion, but the Aussie’s true strength is the reduction of expected rate cuts. Well, that rebound seems to be fizzling out…

 

Gold Makes a Bearish Turn but Commitment Lacking Without Dollar

 

Gold has put in for three consecutive bearish days through Tuesday’s close. Though we haven’t moved very far on this retreat, it is still the worst trend for the metal in over a month. Until the dollar commits to a clear run – the anti-fiat / anti-inflation appeal of gold is put into the spotlight. Meanwhile, ETF holdings are at record highs and the CBOE’s gold volatility index has plunged back to multi-year lows (14.5 percent).

 

Nov 14, 2012

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 

 

[OctaFX_Farid]

 

OctaFX.com- Dollar soars to 6-month high versus Japanese yen

 

 

 

FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. dollar soared to its highest level versus the Japanese yen in more than six months Thursday, rising as the leader of Japan's main opposition party continued to push for a further loosening of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan. The dollar soared as high as 81.25 yen and changed hands in recent action at 81.15 yen, up from 80.20 yen in North American trade late Wednesday.

 

The yen last traded above 81 yen in late April. News reports said Shinzo Abe, leader of the main opposition Liberal Democratic Party, urged the Bank of Japan to push official interest rates below zero. Abe is seen as likely to become Japan's next prime minister in elections expected next month.

 

 

 

 

 

Nov 15, 2012

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

[OctaFX_Farid]

 

OctaFX.Com - Euro rises but vulnerable to Greece uncertainty

 

 

Prices took out resistance at the top of a rising channel established from mid-September, exposing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 10038. A push above that targets the 76.4% retracement at 10109. The channel top – now at 10021 – has been recast as support, with a push back below that aiming for the 50% level at 9982.

 

Nov 16, 2012

 

 

 

[OctaFX_Farid]

 

 

 

OctaFX.Com - Forex Analysis: NZD/USD Classic Technical Report 11.16.2012

 

 

 

 

 

 

ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP

 

Prices are testing support in the 0.8064-0.8101 area, with a break lower exposing the 0.80 figure and the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7962. Near-term resistance is at 0.8222, the underside of a previously broken rising channel set from late May, with a push above that targeting the 0.83 mark.

 

 

 

 

 

Nov 13, 2012

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 

[OctaFX_Farid]

 

 

 

OctaFX.Com - Forex: Euro Concerns Persist, Japanese Yen Rebounds Despite Warning

 

 

 

 

 

 

ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP

 

 

 

As the week winds down, it’s worth recapping to note that November has been decisively negative, with high beta currencies and risk-correlated assets, such as the Australian Dollar, Euro and S&P 500, losing ground in favor of safe havens such as US Treasuries and the US Dollar. In fact, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) is now at its highest level since August 21.

 

Leading the pack on a negative day has been the Japanese Yen, which is of little surprise when considered in recent historical context, but following yesterday’s developments, the Yen’s rebound is a bit more curious. Yesterday, Shinzo Abe, the opposition leader who is ahead in polls and likely to win the Japanese snap election in mid-December, said that he would pressure the Bank of Japan to embark on an unlimited easing policy.

 

While I recognize that the market might be a little thin right now with respect to the Yen, i.e. there aren’t enough interested buyers at the current USDJPY level, it’s difficult to envision a scenario in which the Japanese Yen gains ground with Mr. Abe lurking, unless there are concerns circling around the US fiscal cliff. Speaking of which, there is news about the US fiscal cliff: President Barack Obama is meeting with Congressional leaders today to discuss ways to eliminate the sequester, by a few months or indefinitely with a formidable long-term plan.

 

However, based on price action today in the USDJPY and Gold, it appears that while fiscal cliff (I prefer slope, actually – it’s not like all of that economic activity will be lost on January 1; instead, the damages will come over the course of the quarter) concerns are prevalent, there are also European concerns in the picture.

 

Taking a look at credit, peripheral bond yields are barely moved, having little impact on the Euros. The Italian 2-year note yield has decreased to 2.231% (-0.8-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has increased to 3.193 % (+0.2-bps). Similarly, the Italian 10-year note yield has decreased to 4.872% (-0.8-bps) while the Spanish 10-year note yield has decreased to 5.859% (-0.9-bps); lower yields imply higher prices.

 

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE (versus USD): 11:47 GMT

 

JPY: +0.01%

 

CAD:-0.10%

 

GBP:-0.10%

 

AUD:-0.18%

 

NZD: -0.20%

 

EUR:-0.38%

 

CHF: -0.40%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nov 13, 2012

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 

[OctaFX_Farid]

 

OctaFX.Com -Forex Analysis: Canadian Dollar At Risk For Further Losses On Slowing Inflation

 

 

 

 

The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart, with the USD/CAD pushing back above parity, and the Loonie may face additional headwinds in the week ahead as the economic docket dampens market expectations for higher borrowing costs. Although Canada retail sales are projected to increase another 0.5% in September, the consumer price report may dampen the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) scope to normalize monetary policy as price pressures diminish.

 

As the headline and core reading for consumer prices are expected to slow in October, BoC Deputy Governor Agathe Cote anticipates inflation to hold below the 2% target until the end of 2013, and we may see the central bank continue to endorse a neutral policy stance over the near to medium-term as the fundamental outlook for the region remains clouded with high uncertainty. After pushing back plans to balance the federal budget, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty held a cautious outlook for the region amid the ‘economic shocks that ripple outwards from other nations,’ and warned that Canada ‘is not immune to global forces’ amid the tepid recovery in the United States – Canada’s largest trading partner.

 

Given the historical ties between the two economies, BoC Governor Mark Carney many not want to get too ahead of the Federal Reserve as Chairman Ben Bernanke keeps the door open to conduct more quantitative easing, and we should see Mr. Carney preserve the 1.00% benchmark interest rate for most of 2013 in an effort to encourage a sustainable recovery. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, market participants see the BoC keeping borrowing costs on hold over the next 12-months, and easing bets for a rate hike may continue to dampen the appeal of the Loonie as investors weigh the prospects for future policy.

 

As the rebound from 0.9632 gathers pace, the USD/CAD appears to be carving out an bullish trend, and we may see the pair continue to retrace the decline from June as the developments coming out of Canada curb bets for a rate hike. However, as the relative strength index on the USD/CAD remains capped by the 67 figure, the divergence in the oscillator certainly foreshadows a short-term correction in the index, and the pair may track sideways during the holiday trade before we see another bullish move in the exchange.

 

 

Nov 17, 2012

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

[OctaFX_Farid]

 

OctaFX.Com -Forex Analysis: US Dollar Classic Technical Report 11.19.2012

 

 

 

Prices edged through resistance at 10038, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, with buyers now aiming to challenge the 76.4% level at 10109.

 

The first layer of significant support lines up at 10020, the top of a formerly broken rising channel set from mid-September, with a drop below that targeting the 50% retracement at 9982.

 

 

 

Nov 19, 2012

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

[OctaFX_Farid]

 

 

 

Check out OctaFx-Financial News: CLICK HERE

 

 

 

 

Nov 20, 2012

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 

[OctaFX_Farid]

 

 

 

OctaFX.Com - Forex: Euro Relief Rally At Risk, Sterling Looks Higher On BoE Policy

 

 

 

 

Talking Points

 

• Euro: EU Fails To Deliver Greek Deal, IMF Says More Needs To Be Done
  
• British Pound: BoE Votes 8-1 on QE, Curbs Bets For Lower Borrowing Costs
  
• U.S. Dollar: Continues To Gain Ground Ahead Of Thanksgiving Holiday
  

 

Euro: EU Fails To Deliver Greek Deal, IMF Says More Needs To Be Done

 

The Euro pared the overnight decline to 1.2735 as European policy makers floated different options to save Greece, but the reactionary approach held by the EU continues to encourage a bearish outlook for the EURUSD as the debt crisis dampens the fundamental outlook for the region.

Indeed, the EU unveiled a EUR 10B bond-buyback plan for Greece, which would be financed through the European Financial Stability Facility, while the group is also looking to suspend Greece’s interest payment on the bailout program through 2020 in an effort to keep the periphery country within the monetary union.

As the EU prepares a bundled aid package to avert a Greek default, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde argued that ‘a bit more’ needs to be done to find a credible solution for Greece, and the ongoing rift within the troika – the EU, ECB, and IMF – may produce further weakness in the EURUSD as European policy makers struggle to restore investor confidence.

As European policy makers increase their pledge to avoid a credit event in Greece, headlines coming out of the region may keep the single currency afloat over the coming days, but we may see the EURUSD struggle to hold above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.2640-50 as the fundamental outlook for the euro-area turns increasingly bleak.

As the short-term rebound in the EURUSD fails to keep the exchange rate above the 20-Day SMA (1.2820), the pair may consolidate going into the holiday trade, and we will maintain our bearish forecast for the euro-dollar as the weakening outlook for the region is expected to put additional pressure on the European Central Bank to ease monetary policy further.

 

British Pound: BoE Votes 8-1 on QE, Curbs Bets For Lower Borrowing Costs

 

The British Pound climbed to a fresh weekly high of 1.5948 as the Bank of England (BoE) Minutes sapped bets for additional monetary support, and the rebound from 1.5822 may continue to gather pace over the near to medium-term as the central bank appears to be slowly moving away from its easing cycle.

Although the Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to keep its asset purchase program at GBP 375B, the board argued against a further reduction in the benchmark interest rate, while a growing number of central bank officials turned their attention to the stickiness in price growth as the central bank warned that ‘above-target inflation in the near term increased the chance that any pick-up in productivity would result in higher wage demands.’

As the BoE strikes a more neutral tone for monetary policy, we’re seeing the relatives strength index on the GBPUSD breakout of the downward trend carried over from September, and the technical development encourages a bullish outlook for the GBPUSD as the pair appears to be carving out a higher low in November.

 

U.S. Dollar: Continues To Gain Ground Ahead Of Thanksgiving Holiday

 

The greenback continued to gain ground on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) advancing to a high of 10,059, and the reserve currency may track higher ahead of the holiday trade as the developments coming out of the EU meeting fails to generate an improved landscape for risk-taking behavior.

As U.S. traders go offline ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, the drop in market participation may produce choppy price action over the next 24-hours of trading, but the bullish sentiment surrounding the reserve currency looks poised to gather pace over the remainder of the year as the Federal Reserve adopts an improved outlook for the world’s largest economy.

 

 

 

 

Nov 21, 2012

News Updates

 

 

 

 

[OctaFX_Farid]

 

 

 

OctaFX.Com - Forex Analysis: NZD/USD Classic Technical Report 11.22.2012

 

 

 

 

Prices are pulling back anew after testing resistance at the underside of a previously broken rising channel set from late May (0.8247).Initial support lines up in the 0.8056-82 area, with a drop below that exposing the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7962.

 

Alternatively, a push above resistance targets a falling trend line at 0.8294.

 

 

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

 

 

Nov 22, 2012

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

[OctaFX_Farid]

 

 

 

OctaFX.Com - Euro, global shares gain as Greek deal seen closer

 

 

 

 

LONDON (Reuters) - The euro hit a three-week high on Friday after an unexpected rise in German business sentiment for November and on signs of progress in efforts to help Greece secure fresh funding.

 

Companies in Europe's powerhouse economy have turned slightly more optimistic about the outlook despite the euro zone crisis, breaking a six-month run of worsening sentiment, the Munich-based Ifo think-tank said.

 

"The unexpected rise in November's German Ifo survey provides some relief, but doesn't alter the big picture of near stagnation in the euro zone's growth engine," said Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics.

The euro climbed to $1.2913 following the data and is on track to gain 1.2 percent against the dollar this week.

 

European equity markets showed less reaction as many investors chose to end one of the best weeks of 2012 so far by booking some of their profits.

 

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3) edged up 0.1 percent at 1,102.35 points, on course for its best week since May and the second biggest weekly gain of the year.

 

London's FTSE 100 (.FTSE), Paris's CAC-40 (.FCHI) and Frankfurt's DAX (.GDAXI) were between flat and 0.2 percent higher. (.EU) (.L)

 

GREEK OPTIMISM

 

The gains across European markets were supported by optimism that Greece will get the money needed to avoid bankruptcy when euro zone finance ministers, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank meet again on Monday.

A Greek government official told Reuters the IMF and the European Union have narrowed their differences over the target for Greek debt reduction by 2020.

Agreement on a new debt target and how it can be reached is a key stumbling bock in agreeing the release of 44 billion euros ($57 billion) of funds from the bailout package Greece desperately needs to avoid bankruptcy.

 

"The market is getting a bit confident that a Greek deal will be struck. This will remove one of the near-term uncertainties in the euro zone," said Paul Robson, currency strategist at RBS.

 

Greek government bond yields, however, were 5 basis points higher at 16.49 percent, but a relatively small move for the volatile paper and still close to its lowest level since the country's debt was restructured in March.

 

"It's not the first time we have this type of news. The market knows there is a disagreement," said ING rate strategist Alessandro Giansanti. "Until there is an official statement, detailing what they want to do, especially in terms of a debt restructuring, we're not going to see so much of a reaction."

 

Ten-year German government bonds, a barometer of investor sentiment on the euro zone crisis were 2 basis points lower at 1.42 percent.

 

YEAR END OUTLOOK

 

The potential for a Greek deal and signs lawmakers in the United States will eventually agree steps to avoid a fiscal crisis there have been behind a strong rally in share markets around the world this week and have supported commodities.

"These two positive drivers should make for a strong month of December, which traditionally is a fairly good month anyway," said Philippe Gijsels, head of research at BNP Paribas Fortis Global Markets.

MSCI's world equity index <.MIWD00000PUS> was up 0.15 percent on Friday at 326.75 points, on course for a gain of nearly 3 percent this week. That will be its best weekly performance since mid-September.

U.S. stock index futures also point to modest gains when Wall Street trading resumes for a short post-Thanksgiving trading day. (.L)(.EU) (.N)

Earlier, MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> rose 0.7 percent for a weekly gain of 2.6 percent, its best week for two months.

Gold edged up 0.1 percent to $1,731.36 an ounce and looks set to post its second weekly rise in three, while three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.18 percent a tonne at $7,729.

 

On the other hand Brent crude slipped towards $110 a barrel as the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Gaza eased supply concerns.

On Thursday Israel began withdrawing its army, which had been poised to invade the Gaza Strip in pursuit of militants firing rockets into Israel.

 

"Oil prices will probably be under pressure as long as the ceasefire holds," said Filip Petersson, a commodity strategist at SEB Commodity Research.

 

 

 

Nov 23, 2012

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 

[OctaFX_Farid]

 

 

 

OctaFX.Com - Forex: US Dollar Weakest on Friday; Euro Up After German Data, ECB Speak

 

 

 

 

ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP

 

The final day of the three day liquidity drawdown has arrived, and price action on Friday has been moderately bullish for high beta currencies and risk-correlated assets. There’s been decent follow-through on yesterday’s advances by the Australian and New Zealand Dollars, as well as the Japanese Yen and the Euro, as the US Dollar is the worst performing currency across the board.

 

Mainly, there’s been some positive news flow out of Europe allowing for the continued rebound in risk-appetite, as any such headlines out of the United States are absent amid the Thanksgiving holiday.

 

On the data front, a German business confidence reading outperformed expectations, helping ease concerns that the Euro-zone’s largest economy was starting to slide towards recession; perhaps this pace has been stalled.

 

 

On the European news side, there have been a few more reports that Spain is inching towards a bailout agreement, which is bullish for the EUR/USD has it means the European Central Bank’s OMTs would be active, essentially placing a cap on short-term Spanish yields. ECB President Mario Draghi reminded market participants of this today, saying ‘if and when’ (paraphrasing) the OMTs need to be implemented, the ECB stands ready to go.

 

 

Furthermore, the developments on Greece have been frustrating yet hopeful, with another Euro-zone finance ministers’ meeting on November 26. Round the clock negotiations this week fell short of any major compromise, although it was agreed upon that Greece would receive another two years to fulfill its obligations; another round of elections resulting from brinksmanship could be a major setback.

 

 

Taking a look at European credit, peripheral bond yields are mostly higher, preventing the Euro from rallying further. The Italian 2-year note yield has decreased to 1.977% (-3.3-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has increased to 2.983% (+1.0-bps). Similarly, the Italian 10-year note yield is unchanged at 4.771% while the Spanish 10-year note yield has increased to 5.648% (+2.3-bps); higher yields imply lower prices.

 

READ MORE

 

 

 

Nov 23, 2012

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 

[OctaFX_Farid]

 

OctaFX.Com -FOREX Trading: US Dollar Support Probably at Slightly Lower Levels

 

 

 

As focused in FX Technical Weekly on Friday, the confluence of technical levels across multiple markets suggests that recent moves may extend for one or two days before markets reverse yet again.

 

The mid 1420s should produce a top in the S&P. The 61.8% retracement of the decline from the top comes in at 1424.20. The 100% extension of the rally from the low (1342.10-1390.90 from 1379.10) is at 1427.80. More importantly, 1424.90 is the April high and within the vicinity of pivots since August (circled). Weakness below 1388.90 would suggest that top is in place.

 

I’m on the lookout for a low and opportunity to turn bullish again near 9945 in the USDOLLAR.

 

The EURUSD has responded to the 61.8% retracement of the decline from 13172, trading sideways to open the week. Near term pattern suggests slightly higher prices in stair step fashion (4th and 5th waves) before exhaustion. Resistance extends to 13070.

 

The AUDUSD is little changed to begin the week. Expect the current move to extend slightly higher. 10550, the 9/14 reversal day close and 161.8% extension of 10287-10424, is a level that may produce the next top. I remain long from last week (10340 entry) but am looking to reverse the position near 10550.percent at 106.12 yen.[/b]

 

 

Nov 26, 2012

OctaFX.Com News Updates