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GBP/USD eases within range – FXStreet

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes that GBP/USD pair eases within range after another round of BOE’s inflation hearings brought nothing new to the table.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Technically, the 1 hour chart shows price extending below a bearish 20 SMA while indicators head south into negative territory.”

 

“In the 4 hours chart the technical picture is neutral to bearish, with price moving back and forth around a flat 20 SMA as indicators enter negative territory.”

 

“Price needs to break below 1.5620 to confirm further declines, expecting them a break to fresh year lows near the 1.5550 price zone.” 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 25, 2014

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Treasury yield curve flattens post the US GDP report

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The upward revision of the US Q3 GDP number led to sharp gains at the short-end of the treasury market curve compared to the yields at the long-end. 

 

The yield curve appeared to have flattened post the GDP release. The ten-year yield trades largely unchanged around 2.3%, while the two-year yield has recovered to 0.539%, from the day’s low of 0.524%. Similar action is witnessed in the five-year yield, which hit a high of 1.619%. On the other hand, the 30-year yield and the ten-year yields are largely unchanged post the GDP data. 

 

Moreover, the second estimate of the US GDP data surprised markets by printing at 3.9%, compared to the consensus estimate of 3.3%. A strong GDP print may see bond markets in the US price-in an early interest rate hike in the US.  

 

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 25, 2014

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AUD/NZD fall below 1.0900, 4-month low

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The aussie accelerated the decline versus the kiwi and reached the lowest price since July after losing a key support level. AUD/NZD dropped below 1.0905 and accelerated to the downside. So far the pair bottomed at 1.0826 but remains under pressure, testing the lows. 

 

The pair is having the worst performance in months, losing almost a hundred pips and is headed toward the seventh daily loss out of the last eight trading days. 

 

AUD/NZD under 1.0900 - 1.0920

 

Yesterday the pair closed slightly below 1.0920 and today broke decisively the 1.0900 area, dropping below a long term support level; and extended the retreated after finding resistance around 1.1300 at the beginning of the month. 

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 26, 2014

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Chicago ISM manufacturing index declines led by weaker new orders

 

 

FXStreet (London) - The ISM-Chicago business barometer index decreased to 60.8 in November, down from 66.2 in October and lower than the consensus estimate for a decline to 63 after October's one-year high.

 

The report highlighted a slowdown in business expansion as well as a slowing in the rate of growth in orders, factory employment and production. The biggest decline came from new orders which decreased by 11.7 points to 61.9 in November having increased sharply to a one year high in October. Overall orders remain firm and barring a sharp fall in December are likely to record firmer growth in Q4 than Q3. 

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 26, 2014

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AUD/JPY hovering around 100.00

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/JPY dropped during the European session to 99.90, falling below 100.00 for the first time in two weeks, but then rebounded modestly. The recovery from the lows found resistance at 100.30. 

 

AUD/JPY under pressure 

 

As the yen recovers across the board after falling sharply last week, the aussie is the opposite and today, again, is the worst performer in the market, among the most traded currencies. 

 

AUD/JPY is hovering around 100.00, falling for the third day in a row and trading more than 250 pips below the level it had at the beginning of the week. 

 

 


 

 

Nov 26, 2014

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US new home sales increase at slower rate than expectations

 

 

 

FXStreet (London) - Sales of new single-family houses in October 2014 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 458,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.7 percent above the revised September rate of 455,000 and is 1.8 percent above the October 2013 estimate of 450,000.

Despite the increases, gains fell below the levels markets expected.

 

The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2014 was USD305,000; the average sales price was USD401,100 

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 26, 2014

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AUD/USD opening up the downside with minor recovery

 

 

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD is trading at 0.8529, down -0.01% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8568 and low at 0.8480.

 

AUD/USD has started to recover from the lows at 0.8480 and back onto the 0.85 handle, albeit someway off from a full recovery and remains well into negative territory contained by the descending trend and resistance line. 

 

Iron ore prices were the catalyst for the continuation through the 0.8540 key support earlier this week along with RBA officials again jawboning for a lower value in the Aussie when deputy governor Lowe’s speech was received.

 

More to date, AUD/USD was sold off in London at 0.8560 and taking out 0.85 stops along the way down to the lows with more EUR/AUD demand that rallied from 1.4560 to 1.4700 and through the 1.4650 highs with stops triggered and then settling back to 1.4640 on Constancio, the vice president of the ECB’s and hos comments. He went to underline the ECB’s desire to be ready to add more stimulus if needed. Constancio suggested that the ECB will consider buying sovereign debt next quarter. This coupled with President Mario Draghi last week vowing to revive inflation “as fast as possible" adds support to the Aussie in respect of the implications of extra liquidity in the market and demand for higher yielders. 

 

In the US session so far, durable goods stands out as the only positive element to the US calendar but has been overshadowed by an array of negative results in a packed day ahead of thin holiday Thanks Giving markets to come. Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank, suggested that intraday rallies are indicated to terminate 0.8585/0.8605 in AUD/USD. should the downside persist, we are looking at the base of the three year channel at 0.8400 for key support. 

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 26, 2014

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AUD: prizes for jawboning? - Rabobank

 

 

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, noted the strength of the AUD and the RBA’s recent jawboning.

 

Key Quotes:

 

“Lowe last night referred to the level of the AUD exchange rate as being “unusually high”". 

 

"He dismissed concerns about the high level of wages in Australia as really being a function of AUD strength by remarking that “the overall level of wages in Australia are, to some extent, really concerns about the exchange rate, with the high exchange rate leading to high wages expressed in foreign currency terms””. 

 

“Bearing in mind that the RBA’s Kent in the middle of the month remarked that the RBA hadn’t ruled out FX intervention, the RBA appear to be stepping up the pace of verbal intervention, and it is not difficult to understand why”. 

 

“According to the OECD’s measurement of purchasing power parity, the AUD is overvalued against most other developed world currencies (the CHF being the clear exception)”. 

 

“In recent years, China has moved ahead to become Australia’s largest trading partner, but Japan remains in second place”. 

 

“Since the middle of October the AUD/JPY exchange rate has pushed up by almost 9%. This has helped push Australia’s effective exchange rate higher – a move which is unlikely to have been welcomed by neither Australian exporters nor the RBA”. 

 

“In normal circumstances a central bank may consider cutting interest rates to lend its economy support and undercut the outlook for its currency. 

 

“Faced with pressure to curtail mounting levels of household debt, the RBA does not currently appear to be in a position to cut interest rates”. 

 

“Like many other central banks faced with little room for manoeuvre on interest rate policy, it seems the value of the currency has become an increasingly important variable in determining monetary conditions. 

 

“For the RBA, it is not the only central banks actively seeking or appearing to be seeking a softer exchange rate. The SNB, BoJ, ECB and RBNZ are all clear players in the same game”. 

 

 


 

 

Nov 26, 2014

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Gold trades steady in EUR terms

 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices remain well supported in the EUR terms as investors are convinced that the European Central Bank (ECB) would expand its monetary stimulus to include sovereign bond purchases. 

 

Gold in EUR terms or XAU/EUR traded largely unchanged at 957.54 levels, after having recovered from the low of 948.16 hit earlier today. Prices recovered after the ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated that the policy makers are ready to do more if the inflation and growth continues to decline in the Eurozone. He also said that he expects the bank’s balance sheet to expand to 2012 levels. Gold, known to have a direct relationship with a balance sheet size of the central bank, erased gains to trade on a flat note. 

 

Meanwhile, the metal shrugged-off the strong German data, which showed the unemployment rate at a record low of 6.6% in November. 

 

Gold (EUR) Technical Levels

 

The metal has an immediate resistance located at 966.66, above which gains could be extended to 973.62 levels. Meanwhile, support is seen at 952.80 and 948.16

 

 


 

 

Nov 27, 2014

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AUD/JPY finds resistance at 101.00

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/JPY rose further during the Asian session and reached at 101.04, the highest price in two days but failed to hold above 101.00 and pulled back. 

 

The decline found support at 100.54, where an hourly uptrend line stands. A break lower could weaken the aussie and expose daily lows that lie at 100.30. Currently trades at 100.65, at the same level it closed yesterday. 


AUD up after data

 

The aussie, supported by economic data from Australia (increase in new home sales and private capital expenditure) is among the best performers across the board, despite trimming gains during the last hours.

 

 


 

 

Nov 27, 2014

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Deutsche Bank exits physical metals trading

 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Europe’s biggest investment bank decided to exit physical metals trading in face of declining revenues and the necessity to hold buffer capital as per new regulations. 

 

Deutsche Bank did announce an exit from the physical trading of gold, silver, platinum and palladium, although the bank would continue to trade derivatives linked to the precious metals. The bank also announced an end to trading in credit-default swaps linked to individual companies due to stricter regulations. 

 

Moreover, regulators are forcing banks to hold more capital to avoid bailouts funded by taxpayer money. Earlier this year, Barclays, Credit Suisse and JPMorgan Chase scaled back their commodity business. 

 

JPMorgan Chase’s physical commodity unit was bought by Mercuria, a ten-year-old firm based in Switzerland that started out trading oil but now owns (or has joint ventures with) oil-exploration companies, oil-terminal and pipeline operators, coal and iron-ore mines and biofuel refineries. 

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 27, 2014

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GBP/USD consolidates at daily lows

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD steadied near daily lows and has spent the last hours in a narrow range around 1.5750, after pulling back from 2-week highs in the 1.5825 zone.

 

GBP/USD was rejected from above 1.5800 and slid all the way back to 1.5738 before finding support. In the absence of economic data and with trading subdued given the Thanksgiving holiday in US, the pair may extend its consolidation phase throughout American hours.

 

GBP/USD technical levels

 

At time of writing, Cable is trading at 1.5744, 0.28% below its opening price. In terms of technical levels, GBP/USD could find immediate supports at 1.5738/35 (Nov 27 low/Nov 20 & 25 highs), 1.5690 (10-day SMA) and 1.5649 (Nov 25 low). On the flip side, resistances are seen at 1.5825 (daily high), 1.5873 (Oct 15 low) and 1.5900 (psychological level). 

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 27, 2014

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USD/JPY bad news already priced in to Japan - Scotiabank

 

 

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Camilla Sutton, CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank noted that USD/JPY has traded to a fresh six-session low, but is trading well within the range of the November 19/20 trading range of 116.82 to 118.98.

 

Key Quotes:

 

"There was limited data released today from Japan; however Friday’s Asian session will see a slew of data."

 

"Inflation is expected to drift down to 3%y/y on headline, 2.9%y/y ex fresh food and 2.2%y/y ex food and energy; retail trade, industrial production and household spending is expected to be weak. A lot of bad news is priced in for Japan, leaving the larger risk an upside surprise”. 

 

“Any downside pressure in USD/JPY is likely to be prove temporary, the upward trend remaining the overarching theme."

 

"USD/JPY short‐term technicals: mixed, with conflicting signals and the candlestick pattern warning of an attempt to turn USD/JPY lower, it provides a cautionary tone; however a true USD/JPY signal won’t be generated unless there is a break below the November 19th open of 116.86, providing core support; while resistance comes in at the recent high of 118.98." 

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 27, 2014

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Eurozone unemployment holds at 11.5 percent

 

 

 

FXStreet (London) - Eurozone unemployment held at 11.5 percent in October, level with the September print, according to Eurostat.

 

The 28-member European Union unemployment rate was 10.0 percent in October 2014, also stable compared with September 2014 and down from 10.7 percent in October 2013,

 

Compared with September 2014, the number of persons unemployed increased by 42 000 in the European Union and by 60 000 in the Eurozone. Compared with October 2013, unemployment fell by 1.549 million in the EU and by 547 000 in the Eurozone. 

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 28, 2014

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FTSE declines as Energy stocks fall

 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The London’s FTSE index is being driven lower today by a fall in the Energy stocks after Crude Oil prices fell to fresh four-year lows. 

 

The Ftse traded 0.65% lower at 9929.30 levels at the time of writing. The index breadth is negative with an advance-decline ratio of 45:53. The Oil and Gas index is down by 4.29%, while the Oil Equipments Services and Distributions index is down 5.28%. Among the index stocks, shares in multinational oil and gas company BG group fell 8.11%, followed by shares in Weir group, which declined 6.84%. Tullow Oil lost 5.41%, while BP’s share price and Royal Dutch Shell B.’s share price declined 3.5% each. Meanwhile, on the plus side are stocks like Vodafone Group PLC, Kingfisher, Easyjet and Rio Tinto. 

 

Moreover, the shares in energy companies have taken a beating across the globe since Crude prices hit fresh four-year lows after the OPEC group decided to keep the production levels unchanged at 3 million barrels per day. 

 

Ftse Technical Levels

 

The index has an immediate support located at 6641 levels, under which prices may fall to 6600 levels. On the flip side, a breach of resistance located at 6731 levels, shall open doors for a re-test of 6765 levels. 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 28, 2014

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Japan data was the headline driver in Asia – DB

 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Deutsche Bank Research Team, note that Japan seems to be the main headline driver in Asia this morning following a host of mixed data releases.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Starting with retail sales, the print came in at a disappointing -1.4% mom (vs. -0.5% expected), although this appears to be somewhat offset by a better industrial production reading (+0.2% mom vs. -0.6% mom expected) and slight drop in the jobless rate to +3.5% from +3.6% previously, matching the 17yr low seen in August and May. “

 

“In terms of inflation, CPI (ex food) slipped to +2.9% yoy, marking a third consecutive monthly decline whilst stripping out the effect of the sales tax showed a fairly subdued +0.9% core print.” 

 

“In fact, staying on Japan, 2y JGB’s dropped below zero for the first time ever this morning ahead of today’s auction. As we type, the notes are trading at -0.002% - matching only Germany, Sweden, Netherlands, Denmark, Finland and Switzerland with similar duration bonds trading with a negative yield.” 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 28, 2014

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Weak Eurozone data adds pressure on ECB

 

 

 

FXStreet (London) - This morning’s European data will increase the pressure on European Central Bank policymakers ahead of the bank’s meeting next week.

 

Figures from Eurostat showed that Eurozone consumer prices declined to 0.3 percent in November, down from 0.4 percent, with disinflationary pressure coming from declining oil prices and weakening demand.

 

The latest inflation numbers are a long way from the 2 percent ECB target of 2 percent – a level not seen since early 2013 when crude prices were more than 17 percent higher than today.

 

In addition to the weak inflation numbers, Eurozone unemployment levels remained at 11.5 percent in October with youth unemployment at 21.6 percent. 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 28, 2014

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AUD/USD advances beyond 0.8500

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Aussie dollar is now extending its rebound from multi-year lows near 0.8490 vs. the US dollar, lifting AUD/USD back to the 0.8515/20 area.

 

AUD/USD weaker ahead of RBA


The offered tone remains intact around AUD, with spot navigating the current leg lower sparked after November tops in the boundaries of 0.8800 the figure. Next of note in Australia will be the RBA monetary policy meeting due on Tuesday. Although expectations point to a neutral tone from Governor Stevens, traders will closely follow the statement, especially in light of the recent CapEx figures. Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, commented, “Given our view that the USD has embarked on a long term recovery, we see AUD/USD edging lower on a long term view. However, we see risk of a short-covering rally in AUD/USD near-term with a view that AUD/USD will edge down towards 0.84 on a 12 mth view”

 

AUD/USD key levels

 

At the moment the pair is losing 0.37% at 0.8518 and a breakdown of 0.8480 (low Nov.26) would expose 0.8450 (low Jul.7 2010) and then 0.8315 (low Jul.1 2010). On the other hand, the initial hurdle aligns at 0.8619 (high Nov.25) ahead of 0.8648 (10-d MA) and finally 0.8673 (21-d MA). 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 28, 2014

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UK manufacturing PMI climbs to four-month high in November

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The UK Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index came-in at a four-month high of 53.5 in November, compared to October’s 53.2 and higher than the preliminary reading of 53.00. 

 

The upturn in the manufacturing activity was supported by solid domestic order inflows, which offset subdues trend in new export orders. Meanwhile, Manufacturing employment increased for the nineteenth consecutive month in November, with the rate of job creation reaching four-month high. 

 

Price pressures remained weak in November. The average input prices declined for the third straight month, while the average output prices rose marginally. 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 01, 2014

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RBI to keep rates unchanged, with rising risks of a surprise – TDS

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Cristian Maggio, Head of Emerging Markets Research at TD Securities, expects the Reserve Bank of India’s Governer Rajan to keep the key rates unchanged and announce the achievement of the 8% CPI target tomorrow.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The Reserve bank of India will announce their rate decision tomorrow and we expect Governor Rajan to keep the key rates on hold (repo at 8.00% and CRR at 4.00%). This view is in line with the almost unanimous consensus expectations, but we see increasing risks that a surprise cut may also occur.”

 

“The reason for potential easing of policy rates is essentially related to the inflation dynamic, which has been a lot more benign than we had initially expected. This reflects in both a resumption to normal levels of precipitations in the latter months of the summer monsoon season, and the plunge in crude oil prices since July.”

 

“In tomorrow’s announcement, rather than a surprise cut, we expect the RBI to communicate more comfort with the achievement of the short-term target of 8% for CPI. The target for January 2016 is 6%, which also seems attainable and which will eventually determine the decision to cut rates in 2015.”

 

“If we are right, the decision to hold may give temporary respite to the INR, which has been weakening in line with the general trend in EM FX since July and is currently trading at 62.09 to the dollar, 2% above our Q4 forecast of 60.9.”

 

“Rather than with outright longs to the USD, we continue to express our positive view on INR through long INR/KRW in 1m NDFs (target at 19.00), and our oil basket trade (long THB, INR, PHP, TRY—short COP, MXN, BRL) that has gained approx. 2% in spot since November 27.” 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 01, 2014

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Oil price tumbles 40% since June – Investec

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research team at Investec note that Oil prices have fallen 40% since June and it affects both oil-linked currencies as well as near term inflation.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Oil prices have been in decline this year, with oil having tumbled almost 40% since June due to the US shale boom and slower economic growth in China and Europe dampening demand. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries decision last week to hold oil supply steady amid falling prices has acted like a red rag to a bull, as the market sees how low it can push the price of oil before the oil producers are forced to act to protect prices.”

 

“Oil-linked currencies such as the Canadian Dollar and Norwegian Krone have fallen in the aftermath. Oil importing countries currencies such as the British Pound, Japanese Yen, and to some extent Euro, have also been hit.”

 

“The lower oil price will see a drag on near term inflation at a time when there are concerns about the extent of price slowdown and targeting higher levels of inflation. There will be second round spending effects as the money saved on energy prices is spent by consumers but this will take a while to be seen in the UK and the Bank of England will have to look through a soft patch of inflation that will likely stop them raising interest rates for now.”

 

“By Contrast, the US Dollar has been a net winner, more-so by default. Lower pump prices are a shot-in-the-arm for the economy as disposable income increases (due to lower fuel taxes), so the US are likely to be one of the first to receive the second round spending effects that some have likened to a mini-stimulus package. This has been part of the story of the US Dollar continuing to make gains.” 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 01, 2014

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EUR/USD technicals maintain the negative tone – FXStreet

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, the 4 hour technical charts maintain the negative tone for the EUR/USD pair, which is trading in the 1.2400 - 1.2520 range.

 

Key Quotes

 

“EUR/USD pair trades near its daily high of 1.2474 despite local Markit manufacturing PMIs resulted a big miss: EZ PMI was down to 50.1, German printed 49.5 and Italy and France ones resulted both below 50.”

 

“Technically however, the 4 hours chart maintains the negative tone with price finding intraday resistance around 20 SMA, flat and converging with 100 one around mentioned daily high, whilst indicators remain below their midlines.”

 

“Trading mid range, the pair remains contained between 1.2400 and 1.2520, the levels to break to see it setting a more directional move over the upcoming sessions.” 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 01, 2014

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 


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