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GBP/USD recovers above 1.5900 after ADP


 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD rose further above 1.5900 after the release of the ADP report in the US. The pair climbed to 1.5926 reaching the strongest level since early European session. 

 

According to the ADP employment report, the US private sector added 230.000 jobs in October, slightly above the forecast of 220.000 that analyst expected. 

 

GBP/USD gains momentum

 

Cable is trimming losses and recovering ground after falling to 1-year lows at 1.5867 earlier. Greenback weakened across the board after labor market numbers, but is still holding important gains for the day. The pair remain above 1.5920, but on a wider perspective is still under pressure, still far from the level it had at the beginning of Wednesday. 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 05, 2014

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GBP/JPY jumps to 6-year highs at 183.45


 

 

FXStreet (San Francisco) - Sterling rose to its highest level since October 2008 at 183.45 against the Japanese yen as the pair is trading upward following the JPY weakness.

 

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading at 183.13, up 0.70% on the day, having posted a daily high at 183.45 and low at 181.51. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting overbought hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish. 

 

GBP/JPY levels

 

If the pair manages to extend gains, it will find next resistances at 183.45, 183.70 and 184.00. To the downside, supports are at 181.70, 181.15 and 180.90.

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 05, 2014

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A “dot hike” from the Fed on the cards? - BAML


 

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Ralph Axel, Rates Strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch notes the forthcoming consensus for the US jobs report in Nonfarm Payrolls could be a catalyst for a shift in sentiment around the feds first rate hike.

 

Key Quotes:

 

"A consensus or moderately below-consensus jobs report on Friday we believe can create an even greater divergence between the market and the Fed around the latter's expected tightening cycle”. 

 

“While such a report would result in an unchanged market or even lower yields on a weaker report, it could cause the Fed to increase its dots in next month's dot plot - a "dot hike" - which given the very large discrepancy between the market and dots should be a substantial hawkish surprise for markets."

 

"The unemployment rate this Friday is the key number for the Fed, and we would view a 5.9% rate, which is the consensus, as providing a great opportunity to sell the front end of the rates market, preferably using EDZ6 euro/dollar contracts or 5y Treasuries, futures or swaps. If the unemployment rate drops to 5.8% or lower, especially with a weak nonfarm headline number, our conviction in this trade would increase materially

 

 


 

 

Nov 05, 2014

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Republican Party creating turbulence - Investec


 

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec noted that the Republican Party has won control of the Senate in the US mid-term elections…

 

Key Quotes:

 

"The Republican Party has won control of the Senate in the US mid-term elections, increasing its power against Barack Obama in the final two years of his presidency. The Republican party is also set to strengthen its majority in the House of Representatives."

 

"Republicans focused on voter dissatisfaction with President Obama throughout their campaign, describing the vote as a referendum on his presidency”. 

 

“The victory will make life more difficult for the Democrats and increase political turbulence for the Federal Reserve." 

 

 


 

 

Nov 05, 2014

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Nickel inventory rises


 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The daily inventory data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) today showed a decline in the inventory levels of Aluminium, Lead, Copper and Zinc. Meanwhile, the data showed a rise in the inventory levels of Nickel. 

 

Aluminium inventory declined by 9150 tonnes today, while Nickel inventory increased by 1104 tonnes. Copper inventory fell by 625 tonnes, while Zinc Inventory and Lead Inventory declined by 3300 tonnes and 1950 tonnes respectively.

 

Nickel prices are heading for a weekly loss on LME ahead of the report from China which may show export growth slowed down. Nickel slid as much as 0.7% while aluminum fell 0.6%. 

 

 


 

 

Nov 06, 2014

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EUR/USD falls below 1.2500 on Draghi's comments on Thursday - BTMU


 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of Currency Strategy at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ remarks that following Mario Draghi's comments on the balance sheet size and hints on further easing EUR/USD dropped below the 1.2500 level. 

 

Key Quotes

 

"The power of communication. For so long earlier this year, the ECB’s communication wasn’t having much impact but once action is taken by a central bank to back up its words, then communication can turn into a very powerful tool. And so it was yesterday with ECB President Draghi’s explicit comment on balance sheet size and clear hints on further easing pushing the EUR/USD rate well below the 1.2500 level that had been holding for a time."

 

"The explicit mention of the balance sheet going back to “2012 dimensions” also served the purpose of undermining the speculation fuelled by a market report that there were divisions within the ECB Council over President Draghi’s communication style, like communicating a balance sheet target when it was agreed not to. Not only did Draghi mention “2012 dimensions”, he made clear that referred to the time after the second LTRO when the balance sheet hit its EUR 3trn peak.0"

 

"In terms of what has changed, Draghi also intimated that the ECB staff forecasts next month will be lowered again – the current inflation forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are 1.1% and 1.4% respectively. The European Commission this week put inflation in those years at just 0.8% and 1.5%."

 

"So we are quite likely to see a notable change to the 2015 level although it is debatable whether the 2016 level will be changed. Apart from the fall in crude oil prices, there has not really been any dramatic change in economic conditions."

 

"Indeed, Italy and France have backed away from fiscal austerity, helping the growth outlook. Nonetheless, the change in inflation outlook appears the key factor for allowing Draghi to hint at further action by stating that the ECB Council has been “tasked with preparing further measures if needed”."

 

"Finally, from an FX perspective, our current EUR/USD forecasts were based on the assumption of no full-blown sovereign debt QE (1.1800 Q3 2015). That assumption is looking questionable at the moment and hence our forecasts may require downward revisions."

 

"Draghi did emphasise the widening monetary divergence ahead and with asset purchases set to continue for two years, EUR/USD will continue to fall. We are still not convinced of sovereign debt QE being unleashed in December and hence for now we will maintain our 1.2500 end-2014 target." 

 

 


 

 

Nov 06, 2014

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GBP/USD ignored the disappointing Trade Balance


 

 

FXStreet (Moscow) - GBP/USD is still trading above 1.58 area practically ignoring the UK Trade Balance.

 

The pound has become immune to weaker-than-expected data, as just released Trade Balance was practically ignored by the currency. No wonder, given the series of disappointments from PMI releases, and the recent impressive sell-off of the pair. The yesterday’s Services PMI printed lowest level since May 2013, and it pushed the pair to 14-month low. The pair may take a pause for now waiting for the key US release to come, and if the American report proves to be better than expected, it may kill any hope for the pound sending it below 1.58 round number.

 

What are today’s key GBP/USD levels? 

 

Today's central pivot point can be found at 1.5890, with support below at 1.5777, followed by 1.5719 and 1.5606 with resistance above at 1.5948, followed by 1.6061 and 1.6119. Hourly Moving Averages are mixed, with the 200SMA bearish at 1.6002, and the daily 20EMA bearish at 1.6041. Hourly RSI is bearish at 32. 

 

 


 

 

Nov 06, 2014

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EUR/GBP extends recovery from weekly lows


 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/GBP pushed to fresh daily highs as the pound weakened on the back of weaker than expected UK trade balance data.

 

EUR/GBP extended its recovery from the 0.7800 area and touched a daily high of 0.7840 but lacked follow-through. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.7833, still up 0.25% on the day but virtually unchanged on the week.

 

The euro weakened Thursday and briefly dropped below 0.7800 versus the pound following ECB President dovish remarks. However, EUR/GBP found support at 0.7798, the same level it bottomed earlier this week.

 

EUR/GBP technical levels

 

On the upside, EUR/GBP could find immediate resistances at 0.7863 (Nov 5 & 6 highs), 0.7883/85 (Oct 31 high/20-day SMA) and 0.7900 (psychological level). On the downside, supports could be found at 0.7800/0.7798 (psychological level/Nov 3 & 6 lows), 0.7789 (Oct 2 low) and 0.7766 (2014 low Oct 1). 

 


 

 

Nov 06, 2014

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NZD/USD rises to 0.7700


 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The kiwi recovered ground during the European session and erased losses against the US dollar ahead of the US employment report. NZD/USD bottomed on Asian hours at 0.7659, the lowest price in two years and then rebounded. 

 

Currently the pair is hovering around 0.7700, slightly higher for the day and moving with bullish momentum. Recently printed a fresh daily high at 0.7703. 

 

NZD/USD outlook

 

The trend remains bearsih and the pair is still under pressure, trading near the lowest level since June 2012. In the short term, with the NFP report near, the pair managed to turner to the upside. Technical indicators favor the kiwi for the coming hours but employment numbers from the US are likely to increase volatility in the forex and define the next move. 

 


 

 

Nov 06, 2014

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Strong NFP result expected in October - TD Securities


 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Annette Beacher, Head of Asia-Pacific Research at TD Securities expects anothe rmonth of robust US job gains in October.

 

Key quotes

 

"A number of indicators suggest another strong month for the US labour market, including strength in the employment subcomponents of the ISM surveys, cyclical lows in claims and better-than-expected ADP private payrolls."

 

"We are broadly in line with consensus in expecting 239k jobs created in October and the unemployment rate unchanged at 5.9%."

 

"We suspect that momentum spillover from Q3 to Q4 will continue to support job growth into year-end." 

 

 


 

 

Nov 06, 2014

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USD/CAD rebounds from 1.1420


 


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is trading on a softer tone vs. the CAD on Friday, pushing USD/CAD to visit the lower band of the range around 1.1420.

 

USD/CAD focus on US, Canada data

 

The upside bias continues to prevail in the pair, intensified after last Friday’s BoJ announcements of further easing measures in its monetary policy, boosting the US dollar to multi-year highs around 1.1470 (Wednesday). Ahead in the session US and Canadian labour market figures are due, with US Pyrolls pointing to an increase of 231K jobs in October while the Employment Change in Canada points to a decrease of 5.0K. “On the charts, though, the trend still looks very constructive, and a move towards 1.18 in the coming months appears as a distinct possibility. So, we would buy dips as they arise within a period of consolidation over the next couple of weeks”, observed Martin Schwerdtfeger, Strategist at TD Securities.

 

USD/CAD levels to consider

 

As of writing the pair is up 0.07% at 1.1435 with the next hurdle at 1.1466 (high Nov.5) ahead of 1.1497 (day uptrend channel) and then 1.1500 (psychological level). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.1380 (low Nov.6) would aim for 1.1340 (low Nov.4) and finally 1.1300 (psychological level). 

 

 


 

 

Nov 06, 2014

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AUD/USD remains capped by 0.8600


 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD managed to recover ground after hitting fresh multi-year lows during the Asian session, but the bounce has remained capped by the 0.8605 zone so far.

 

AUD/USD bottomed out at 0.8540, posting its lowest level since July 2010, and staged a mild recovery to a high of 0.8604 during the European session, although the pair lacked momentum as investors refrain from taking big positions ahead of the US nonfarm payrolls report. NFP forecast calls for a 231K gain in October after 248K the previous month, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 6.9%.

 

AUD/USD technical levels

 

At time of writing, AUD/USD is trading at 0.8595, 0.45% above its opening price, with immediate resistances seen at 0.8625 (Nov 6 high) and 0.8700 (psychological level), while supports are seen at 0.8540 (2014 low Nov 7) and 0.8500 (psychological level). 

 

 


 

 

Nov 06, 2014

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Indian equities decline on profit booking


 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Indian equity markets ended lower today as investors booked profits after the benchmark indices rose sharply to record high levels earlier this week. 

 

The Sensex retreated 0.17% to 27868.63, compared to the previous session’s close of 27915.88. Among stocks, HDFC Bank fell most after the stock was removed from the MSCI India Index. Other losers include stocks like Hero MotoCorp Ltd, and Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. HDFC Bank fell 1.5, while State Bank of India slid 1.4%. 

 

Meanwhile, Motherson Sumi Systems Ltd. and Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd. advanced 0.5% and 4.8%, respectively, after MSCI said the two companies will be added to he MSCI India Index from the close of trading on Nov. 25. 

 

The Foreign inflows continue to remain strong in the Indian markets. FIIs bought a net USD 170.5 million of local shares on Nov. 5, taking this year’s inflow to USD 14.4 billion.

 

Sensex Technical levels

 

The index has an immediate support at 27,791, under which prices can fall to 27,745 levels. Meanwhile, the index has a strong resistance located at 28,000. 

 

 


 

 

Nov 06, 2014

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USD/CHF retreats but remains above 0.9700


 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CHF is falling modestly on Friday, ahead of the NFP report but still remains above 0.9700. Yesterday the pair posted the highest close since May 2013.

 

After Draghi’s press conference the pair jumped, breaking important short term resistance levels and peaked at 0.9737, new 2014 high. Afterwards the pair retreat modestly and continued to pullback on Friday, moving slowly on a clam trading day so far, as traders wait for US employment numbers. Recently printed a fresh daily low at 0.9704. 

 

USD/CHF with strong weekly gains

 

To erase weekly gains, price would have to fall below 0.9630. It it does not happen, USD/CHF would post the third gain in a row and the second highest weekly close in two years. 

 

 


 

 

Nov 06, 2014

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USD/CHF retreats but remains above 0.9700


 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CHF is falling modestly on Friday, ahead of the NFP report but still remains above 0.9700. Yesterday the pair posted the highest close since May 2013.

 

After Draghi’s press conference the pair jumped, breaking important short term resistance levels and peaked at 0.9737, new 2014 high. Afterwards the pair retreat modestly and continued to pullback on Friday, moving slowly on a clam trading day so far, as traders wait for US employment numbers. Recently printed a fresh daily low at 0.9704. 

 

USD/CHF with strong weekly gains

 

To erase weekly gains, price would have to fall below 0.9630. It it does not happen, USD/CHF would post the third gain in a row and the second highest weekly close in two years. 

 

 


 

 

Nov 07, 2014

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GBP/USD holds up above 1.5800 ahead of NFP


 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD is going through a sideways phase ahead of the US employment report, having steadied above the 1.58 mark after hitting a fresh 14-month low on the back of weaker-than-expected UK trade balance data.

 

GBP/USD has managed to hold up above the 1.5800 level, having touched its lowest level since September 2013 at 1.5801 as investors gear up for the US nonfarm payrolls report. Consensus points to a 231K gain in October following 248K the previous month.

 

Cable is trading little changed on the day at the 1.5825 area, after posting its biggest decline in 3 weeks the previous day.


BoE rate hike expectations postponed

 

Meanwhile, the Bank of England left policy unchanged as expected yesterday and focus turned to next week’s UK inflation report and the release of the meeting minutes. According to said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, FX Analyst at Swissquote GBP/USD suggests further losses, deteriorating UK economy indicators may postpone tightening to June 2015. "The implied probabilities extracted from interest rate markets show that expectations for a first BoE rate hike are now postponed to June 2015 (from Feb’15 previously). Dovish shift in BoE bets continue weighing on the Cable", the analyst commented. 

 

 


 

 

Nov 07, 2014

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EUR/JPY weakens ahead of the ECB bond buying results


 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/JPY pair is trading in the red as the markets await the European Central Bank (ECB) bond buying results for the last week. The pair has repeatedly lost steam around 142.80-143.00 levels, due to which the pair has moved lower towards 142.30 levels. 

 

Moreover, the yen has strengthened against the US Dollar tracking the weakness in the US Treasury yields. The single currency appears exhausted as markets expect the Eurozone Sentix Inventor Confidence to have dipped to -13.8 in November. The EUR is also likely to stay weak as investors await the (ECB) bond buying results for the last week. The first week of the program saw a mere EUR 1.7 billion in uptake. The EUR/JPY pair may fall further today, if the ECB announces a sharp increase in the amount of bond buying program of the last week.

 

Meanwhile, a further fall in the benchmark bond yields across the Eurozone shall tilt the yield spreads in favor of the Yen. 

 

EUR/JPY Technical levels

 

The pair currently trades 0.35% lower at 142.25, with the immediate support at 141.96, under which the pair can fall to 141.65. Meanwhile, a breach of the immediate resistance located at 142.73, shall open doors for a re-test of 143.48. 

 

 


 

 

Nov 10, 2014

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USD/JPY – divergence of the daily RSI points to near term weakness – Commerzbank


 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Karen Jones, Head of Technical Analysis at Commerzbank suggests the pair to dive to retrace to 110.67 levels if the pair dives below 112, but keeps the longer term target at 123.

 

Key Quotes

 

“USD/JPY’s new high of 115.60 has not been confirmed and caution is warranted - the market has been underpinned by the cloud on the 60 minute chart, which has now been eroded, pointing to a potential 112.00 retracement.” 

 

 


 

 

Nov 10, 2014

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EUR/GBP stuck near 0.7860


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/GBP pair made another attempt to test 0.7860 levels today and failed after the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence remained near 18-month low in November. 

 

The EUR/GBP pair currently trades at 0.7851, compared to the previous session’s close of 0.7846. Moreover, the pair has made repeated attempts to rise above 0.7860 levels for the last entire week. However, the single currency is unable to extend the gains despite rising occasionally above 0.7860 levels. Moreover, the US Dollar has been strengthening equally against the EUR and the GBP, thereby restricting the EUR/GBP cross to a narrow range. 

 

Meanwhile, the EUR/GBP pair may inch higher if the ECB) bond buying results disappoints market expectations. The bond buying during the first week of the program was just EUR 1.7 billion, which as per analysts is not sufficient to push the ECB balance sheet towards early-2012 levels. 

 

EUR/GBP Technical levels

 

The pair has a strong resistance at 0.7866, above which it can rise to 0.7885 and 0.7910 levels. On the flip side, a breach of the immediate support at 0.7838 shall push the pair down to 0.7810 levels. 

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 10, 2014

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Brent trades at one-week high


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Brent crude clocked a one-week high today as Chinese exports grew more than expected in October, signaling more demand for Crude in future. 

 

Brent for January delivery is trading at USD 85.23/barrel, compared to the previous session’s close of USD 84.23. The prices rose after official data in China showed exports increased 11.6% from a year earlier, easily exceeding the 10.6% estimate. Meanwhile, the imports rose 4.6%, compared with estimates of 6%. Moreover, Brent prices rose as a rise in export activity means more industrial activity in China and more demand for Crude. 

 

However, the recovery may be technically driven since the commodity has been in the down trend since June 2014. The technical correction is likely to be capped since the concerns of excess supply still dominate the market sentiment. 

 

Brent Crude Technical Levels

 

Brent has an immediate resistance at 86.39, above which the prices can rise to 87.17. On the flip side, a breach of 84.61 on the downside, can push the prices down to 84.12 levels. 

 

 

EUR/GBP Technical levels

 

The pair has a strong resistance at 0.7866, above which it can rise to 0.7885 and 0.7910 levels. On the flip side, a breach of the immediate support at 0.7838 shall push the pair down to 0.7810 levels. 

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 10, 2014

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Bank of Russia abandons exchange rate policy mechainsm


 

 

 

FXStreet (London) - According to a release by the Russian central bank, effective from today, the Bank of Russia abolished the exchange rate policy mechanism through cancelling the permissible range of the dual-currency basket ruble values (operational band) and regular interventions within and outside the borders of this band.

 

Exchange rate liberalisation

 

However this move does not constitute a complete rejection of intervention by the Bank of Russia in its currency. It will still intervene in the case of what it perceives to be financial stability threat.

In theory, the removal of the operational band of dual-currency ruble values means that the currency will be free-floating and moves away from the central bank’s policy of the sale of $350 million a day if the rate of the ruble drops below the lower band – a move that was announced this week by Bank of Russia head Elvira Nabiullina. However, the scope of what constitutes a “financial stability threat” is likely to be a wide one, at least in the short to medium-term.

 

The ruble has declined 25 percent against the dollar in the year-to-date, with the Bank of Russia estimating that capital flight from Russia is set to reach USD128bn this year. 

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 10, 2014

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AUD/USD remains capped by 0.8680


 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD extended its recovery from multi-year lows during the Asian session, but the advance was capped by the 0.8680 zone, confining the pair to a phase of consolidation.

 

AUD/USD was underpinned by profit taking Monday, with domestic data on housing finance doing little to change the direction of the Aussie. The pair reached its highest level since Thursday at 0.8682 but lacked follow-through and entered a sideways phase. At time of writing, AUD/USD is trading at 0.8670, up 0.43% on the day.

 

“The AUD/USD pares last week losses. In the absence of important US/Australian data, the focus remains on China”, said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, analyst at Swissquote Bank SA. “We see resistance at 0.8747/90 area (21-dma / MACD pivot) and bet for a re-test of 0.85 support”.  

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 10, 2014

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Gold weakens ahead of the US opening


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices are trading weak after failing to capitalize on the gains witnessed during the Asian session as the US indices futures trade flat with equities at record highs. 

 

Gold declined to USD 1165.50/Oz, down 0.37% for the day after having hit a high of USD 1777.40/Oz levels earlier todays. So far, the metal has been unable to extend the sharp bounce witnessed on Friday post the release of the weaker-than-expected US Non-farm payrolls data. Meanwhile, the S&P futures and the DJIA futures are trading 0.17% and 0.14% higher respectively. Gold is unable to sustain gains despite the US dollar index weakening 0.27% today. 

 

The yellow metal also came under pressure after the official data in China showed price pressures remained flat in October. China’s consumer price index was 1.6% higher from a year earlier in October, unchanged from the previous month and in line with analysts’ expectations. Fall in inflation in the world’s second largest economy is likely to reduce the hedge demand for Gold. 

 

Elsewhere, the yellow metal or XAU/EUR trades 1.17% lower at EUR 934.79/Oz levels. Moreover, the yellow metal is down in EUR terms as the single currency gained strength against the US Dollar post Friday’s jobs data.

 

Gold (EUR) Technical levels 

 

Gold has an immediate support at 929.5, under which the prices can fall to 925.62. On the flip side, the metal may re-test 945, if the immediate resistance at 939.40 is breached.   

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 10, 2014

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 


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GBP/JPY climbs to 184.00


 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The decline of the yen across the board pushed GBP/JPY to 184.00, reaching the highest price last Thursday, when it reached 184.30, the strongest level in six years. 

 

The pair was trading below 182.00 during the Asian session but then jumped and climbed rising more than 200 pips in a few hours. The rally found resistance around 184.00 and currently trades at 183.75/80, up 0.96%, headed toward the highest daily close since 2008. The yen is so far the worst performer across the board. 

 

GBP/JPY testing 2014 highs

 

Last week the pair reached 184.40 but reversed quickly and ended the week below around 181.50. On Monday the pair stabilized and today is soaring, approaching last week highs. A consolidation on top of 184.00, would expose the highs. The area around 184.40/55 is an important long term resistance, followed by 185.70/80. 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 11, 2014

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 


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