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USD/JPY hovers around 108.00

 


 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY remains directionless, trading erratically near the top of its recent range as investors gear up for the Federal Open Market Committee decision on monetary policy.

 

USD/JPY pulled back throughout the European session but found support at the 107.90 zone and bounced afterward, but moves are lacking real strength. The pair is facing mild pressure at the beginning of the New York session, having dropped a few pips to currently trade around 108.05, virtually unchanged on the day.

 

Sideways consolidation will likely persist until 18:00 GMT when the Federal Reserve will announce its verdict. The Fed is expected to announce its commitment to end QE today.

 

USD/JPY levels to watch

 

In terms of technical levels, resistances are seen at 108.19 (Oct 29 high), 108.33 (Oct 27 high) and 108.73 (Oct 8 high). On the other hand, supports could be found at 107.93 (Oct 29 low), 107.58/64 (Oct 27 low/20-day SMA) and 107.38 (Oct 20 high). 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 29, 2014

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EMU: Consumer Confidence up to -11.1 in October, as expected

 


 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Eurozone Consumer Confidence edged up to -11.1 in October, from -11.4 in September, the European Commission reported on Thursday. This result is in line with market consensus. 

 

Eurozone Business Climate rose to 0.05, from 0.02, as expected.

 

The Economic Sentiment Indicator climbed to 100.7 from 99.9 and against forecasts of falling to 99.7. 

 

Industrial Confidence decline slowed down from -5.5 to -5.1, against expectations of remaining unchanged. Services Sentiment improved to 4.4 from 3.2 and against consensus of falling to 3.1. 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 30, 2014

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EUR/USD depressed below 1.2600

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The single currency is extending its decline on Thursday, taking EUR/USD to the 1.2580 region so far.

 

EUR/USD muted post-data

 

Spot remained pretty much unchanged after Economic Sentiment and Business Climate surpassed forecasts during October, coming in at 100.7 and 0.05, respectively. Other indicators also showed auspicious results: Industrial Confidence improved to -5.1 from -5.5 and Services Sentiment bettered to 4.4 from 3.2. All in all, good prospect for the region although the demand for the single currency is still suffering yesterday’s FOMC hawkish statement. “The lack of any significant bounce suggests further EUR weakness but any further decline will likely be at a slower pace. Only a move back above 1.2675 would indicate that a temporary low is in place. Otherwise, expect a move lower towards 1.2600”.

 

EUR/USD key levels

 

The pair is now losing 0.32% at 1.2591 and a breach of 1.2504 (low Oct.6) would expose 1.2501 (2014 low Oct.3) and then 1.2493 (low Aug.31). On the upside, the initial hurdle aligns at 1.2639 (high Oct.30) followed by 1.2690 (10-d MA) and finally 1.2691 (21-d MA).

 

 

 

 

 

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Oct 30, 2014

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Sensex at a new closing high

 


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Indian equity markets rose on optimism that the US economy is on the track as indicated the optimistic Federal Reserve (Fed) policy statements. Moreover, the reforms initiated by the new government has managed to negate the impact of little hawkishness seen in the Fed’s statement. 

 

The market ended with hefty returns today Nifty ending at 8169.20 up 78.75 points or 0.9%, while the Sensex ended at a record closing high at 27346.33, up 0.9% for the day. The index was pushed up by Relianc, which gained 3%, while TCS, Hindalco, Infosys and GAIL were top gainers. On the losing side were Sesa Sterlite, M&M, Cipla, Tata Power and Hero. 

 

Exporter shares also edged higher on optimism about the US economy. Infosys ended up 1.6 %, while rival Tata Consultancy Services Ltd gaining 2.3%. 

 

Sensex Technical levels

 

The index has an immediate support at 27,256 (Sept. 23), under which the prices can fall to 27,000 levels. Meanwhile, a breach of 27,385 levels shall open doors for a fresh record high levels in the index. 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 30, 2014

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EUR/USD trading close to 1.2580 - FXStreet

 


 

 


FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik observes that the post-Fed strength of the USD extended in the European session with the EUR/USD trading close to the 1.2580 region. 

 

Key quotes 

 

"Having breached the 1.2610/20 price zone, the technical outlook has turned now strongly bearish, and the level will likely attract sellers if reached."

 

"Later on the day, the US will release the Advanced GDP for the third quarter, expected at 3.1%."

 

"Previous quarter was revised up to 4.6%, so a better than expected number should boost the greenback, yet a not so good one needs to be extremely disappointing, something below 2% to actually reverse latest dollar gains."

 

"Technically, the 4 hours chart shows indicators still heading south despite in oversold territory, with 20 SMA now turning south well above current price, in the 1.2680 level."

 

"A break below 1.2550 should lead to a downward extension towards 1.2500, this year low, whilst a break below exposes 1.2440 as next probable bearish target."

 

"Price needs to advance above 1.2620 to begin an upward move, eyeing then a probable move up to 1.2660/80 area, next selling level on pullbacks." 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 30, 2014

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USD/JPY challenges 109.00

 


 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is now losing the grip vs. its Japanese counterpart on Thursday, with USD/JPY putting the key support at 109.00 to the test.

 

USD/JPY focus on US data, Yellen

 

After hitting 3-week highs near 109.30 in early trade, spot is now giving away some gains and returning to the 109.00 neighbourhood. Ahead in the day, the US docket will take centre stage once again, with the GDP Annualized and Yellen’s speech as the main events. Other data releases will be the weekly report on the labour market and inflation figures tracked by the PCE. “The sharp rally overnight appears to be over-extended and further sustained up-move is unlikely. Allow for a test of 109.00/05 but this will likely lead to a pull-back towards 108.55/60”, suggested Quek Ser Leang, Market Strategist at UOB Group.

 

USD/JPY levels to watch

 

As of writing the pair is up 0.10% at 109.00 facing the next resistance at 109.85 (high Oct.6) ahead of 109.91 (high Oct.3) and finally 110.09 (2014 high Oct.1). On the flip side, a breakdown of 108,75 (low Oct.30) would aim for 107.94 (low Oct.29) and then 107.71 (Tenkan Sen). 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 30, 2014

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Downside pressure on Treasuries possible in the near-term - RBS

 


 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Dmytro Bondar, Technical Analyst at RBS observes that following the break below 126-25, US Treasuries could experience further downside pressure in the nearest future. 

 

Key quotes

 

"There is also a strong support at 126-00 and 125-21 (50-day MA), which seems likely to limit dips for now."

 

"Hence we favour taking profits on outright TY shorts, but to keeping short US into Europe trade." 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 30, 2014

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US: GDP expanded 3.5% YoY in Q3

 


 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Commerce Department has informed that the US economic activity expanded at an annual pace of 3.5% during Q3, exceeding forecasts for an expansion of 3.0% albeit lower than the previous 4.6% gain.  

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 30, 2014

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GBP/USD down to 1.5950 amid upbeat US GDP

 


 

 

 

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Dollar is advancing across the board amid a better than expected US GDP in the Q3. So the GBP/USD fell to test 1.5950 area just after the report. However the pair managed to bounce and it returned to pre-data levels.

 

US GDP rises 3.5% in the Q3; above 3.0% expected. Previous last 4 quarters: +4.5%, +3.5%, -2.1%, & + 4.6%. Consumption down to 1.8% from 2.5%, while core PCE down to 1.4% from 2.0%. The statement acknowledges too much government spending.

 

Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5980, down -0.19% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.6020 and low at 1.5951. GBP/USD spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index also is neutral. 

 

GBP/USD levels

 

If the pair extends bounce above 1.6000, it will find next resistances at 1.6010 and 1.6020. To the downside, supports are at 1.5950, 1.5900 and 1.5875.  

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 30, 2014

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German Ten-year yield at day’s low on weak German CPI

 


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The German ten-year is trading at a day’s low after the official data showed a slowdown in the price pressures in October. 

 

The ten-year yield is trading at 0.845%, down from the day’s high of 0.903%. The yields have been falling since the early morning trade tracking weakness in the equity markets. The CPI in October rose 0.7% year-on-year, compared to the market expectation of 0.9%. Moreover, the markets were expecting an increase in the price pressures. However, given the slump in the energy prices, it was unlikely that the CPI would rise more than expected. Month-on–month the prices fell 0.3%, compared to the expectation of 0.1% fall. 

 

Ten-year yield Technical levels

 

The yield has an immediate support at 0.824%, under which it can fall to 0.811%. On the other hand, a strong resistance is seen at 0.9%. 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 30, 2014

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US Equities to open on a weak note

 


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The equity markets in the US are likely to open on a weak note taking cues from the weakness in the European equity markets. The US Equity futures have been trading in the red since the start of the European session today. 

 

The DJIA December futures are trading 0.10% lower at 16,909 , while the S&P December futures are trading 0.16% lower at 1969.15. Meanwhile, the Midcap Russell 2000 index December futures are trading 0.21% lower at 1139.30 levels. 

 

Elsewhere, the Dax is trading 0.88% lower at 9000 levels, while the Ftse is trading 0.56% lower at 6418 levels. 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 30, 2014

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Fed's Yellen calls for more diversity in economics

 


 

 


FXStreet (Łódź) - Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who spoke on Thursday at the National Summit on Diversity in the Economics Profession in Washington didn't make comments on monetary policy in her opening remarks.

 

Yellen suggested that a greater number of women in economics could contribute to the profession with different views and approaches and that the Fed has been promoting this stance for some time now.

 

“Often, in the things economists study and the methods we use, diversity is a good thing,” Yellen said. “I believe decisions by the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee are better because of the range of views and perspectives brought to the table by my fellow policymakers, and I have encouraged this approach to decision making at all levels and throughout the Fed system.” 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 30, 2014

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USD/JPY wobbling around 109.00

 


 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - USD/JPY is sidelining around the 109.00 handle on Thursday, keeping the trade between 108.80 and 109.40 so far.

 

USD/JPY looks to Japanese CPI

 

Spot remained practically indifferent to the improvement of the US GDP during Q3, expanding above forecasts 3.5% on a yearly basis. Instead, market participants are now focusing on the critical inflation figures in Japan, due tonight. Consensus expect the key National CPI Ex-Fresh Food to rise at an annual pace of 3.0% in September, a tad lower than August’s 3.1% advance. Robert Rennie, Strategist at Westpac, suggested, “We… hold a buy bias for another week but remain unconvinced that USD/JPY will drop much below 107”.

 

USD/JPY levels to watch

 

As of writing the pair is up 0.10% at 109.00 facing the next resistance at 109.85 (high Oct.6) ahead of 109.91 (high Oct.3) and finally 110.09 (2014 high Oct.1). On the flip side, a breakdown of 108,75 (low Oct.30) would aim for 107.94 (low Oct.29) and then 107.71 (Tenkan Sen). 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 30, 2014

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EMU: Annual CPI ticks up to 0.4% in October

 


 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - According to preliminary data released today by Eurostat, Eurozone annual climbed to 0.4% in October from 0.3% in September, as expected. 

 

Year-over-year CPI-Core slid to 0.7% in October from 0.8% in September, against forecasts of remaining unchanged.  

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 31, 2014

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Gold extends fall, ignores the Swiss vote

 


 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold has slipped to four year low today along with a slide in the holdings in the exchange traded funds backed by Gold. The metal has weakened as markets continue to ignore the Swiss vote. 

 

The Gold prices are trading at USD 1163/Oz levels, down 3% for the day, The weakness has been extended ahead of the US opening, as markets expect a strong performance of the US equities.

 

Moreover, the Gold prices continue to slide as the swiss population goes for a vote on the “save out swiss gold initiative”, a proposal which, if passed, would require the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to hold hold a fifth of its nearly $550 billion assets in Gold. The poll will held on Nov 30th. Moreover, a yes vote would require the SNB to buy 1500 tons of gold over a period of five years. Furthermore, the bank would be banned from selling Gold in future, which makes the purchases permanent. 

 

However, the markets are currently ignoring the Swiss vote, as Gold continues to fall on a strong US Dollar. 

 

Gold Technical levels

 

Gold has an immediate support at 1158 levels, while the immediate resistance is located at 1183 levels. 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 31, 2014

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US: Personal Income (Sep) rose 0.2%

 


 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US Commerce Department informed that US Personal income rose at a monthly pace of 0.2% during September, missing estimates while Personal Spending dropped 0.2%. Further data showed US inflation, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures, rose 1.4% over the last twelve months and 0.1% inter-month. Core PCE, which strips food and energy costs, rose 1.5% YoY and 0.1% MoM. 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 31, 2014

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Wall Street to open higher

 


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US Equity markets are likely to open higher today after Bank of Japan announced a surprise expansion of its monetary stimulus earlier today, which triggered a “risk-on”rally in the stock markets across the globe. 

 

The DJIA December futures are trading 1.12% higher at 17,304 levels, while the S&P 500 December futures are trading 1.26% at 2013.65 levels. Meanwhile, the Midcap Russell 2000 December futures are trading higher 1.88% at 1174.80 levels. Moreover, the “risk-on rally” is likely to push down the implied volatility levels in the market. Thus, S&P 500 VIX November futures are trading lower by 3.72% at 15.53 levels. 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 31, 2014

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GBP/USD slumps to 1.5950

 


 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling is now suffering the USD strength, with GBP/USD testing multi-day lows in the mid-1.5900s, levels last seen in mid-October.

 

GBP/USD next support at 1.5900

 

The greenback is extending its upbeat momentum following the hawkish tone from the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, hurting the risk-associated assets and sending spot on a possible way to test ytd lows around 1.5900 the figure. “Below 1.5950 leaves the 1.5874 mid October low exposed. We continue to target the 1.5855 November 2013 low. Beyond this we look for losses to 1.5721 the 61.8% retracement of the move from 2013”, argued Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.

 

GBP/USD levels to consider

 

At the moment the pair is losing 0.23% at 1.5964 with the immediate support at 1.5940 (low Oct.16) ahead of 1.5875 (2014 low Oct.15). On the flip side, a breakout of 1.6038 (high Oct.30) would expose 1.6066 (21-d MA) and finally 1.6182 (high Oct.28). 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 31, 2014

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Natural Gas rises on weather reports

 


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Natural gas prices have inched higher despite a bearish weekly storage report released yesterday as the updated weather forecast models indicate the chilly weather in the days ahead. 

 

Natural Gas for December delivery is trading 1.57% higher at USD 3.887/mmbtu. The prices gained strength after the updated weather forecast models predicted cold Canadian air to make its way south in the lower 48 states in the coming days. "I think people are a little leery of selling it down further when you've got your first real cold front coming in," said Kyle Cooper, managing partner of research consultancy IAF Advisors in Houston. 

 

Moreover, the heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for US gas consumption. 

 

Natural Gas Technical levels

 

Natural Gas has an immediate support at 3.874, under which the prices can fall to 3.83 levels. On the flip side, the prices can rise to 4.00, if the immediate resistance located at 3.955 is breached. 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 31, 2014

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No change expected from BoE at its November MPC meeting - RBS

 


 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Ross Walker, Senior UK Economist suggests that the upcoming BoE monetary policy meeting will be uneventful, with no changes expected and no statement to be released. 

 

Key quotes

 

"It is not so long ago that November’s MPC meeting was being eyed as the most likely point for the first Bank Rate rise (a 25bp hike was fully priced as recently as mid-June, while the market was evenly split between November 2014 and February 2015 in mid-August)."

 

"Evidence of weaker global demand and more broad-based (if still mild) domestic disinflationary pressures mean that the prospects of any policy change or statement on November 6thare fairly remote."

 

"We expect the BoE Inflation Reporton 12thNovember to broadly validate current market pricing for the first Bank Rate hike to come around August 2015." 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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US equity indices rise above closing highs

 


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US Equity indices hit record high levels as an unexpected expansion of stimulus program from the Bank of Japan spurred a “risk-on” buying the financial markets across the globe.

 

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.85% to 2011.60, topping its all-time high from Sept. 18. The DJIA advanced 0.84% to 17,340 levels. Surpassing a record high hit on Sept. 19. Moreover, the latest rally begun after Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said on Oct. 16 that policy makers should consider delaying the end of quantitative easing. The rally was extended further on better-than-expected earnings and optimism about the US economy. 

 

The DJIA index breadth is positive with an advance decline ratio of 27:3. Among the top gainers are shares of Intel, Visa, Merck&Co, Walt Disney. On the other hand, The shares of Chevron, IBM and McDonald’s are trading in the red. 

 

DJIA Technical levels

 

The index is trading near an immediate resistance located at 17,350 levels, above which the prices may re-test 17,374 levels (daily high). On the flip side, support is seen at 17,223 and 17,145 levels. 

 

 

 


 

 

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Oil price rally falls on Thursday on USD rise

 


 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Independent Analyst Malcolm Graham-Wood notes that yesterday's rise in the greenback on positive US GDP data and Fed members' comments pushed oil price further down.

 

Key quotes

 

"With the price of Brent being about the same as the beginning of the week traders have reported that the market has felt a little better this week but…"

 

"Early estimates of October Opec production are coming in and if they are to be believed it was another big month."

"I have so far had a number of 30.9m b/d which would be a 14 month high and up on September’s figure."

 

"With Saudi output down slightly it means that everyone else is doing what comes naturally to them, ie belting out as much as possible before the Opec meeting."

 

"And the European Union, with much to play for have secured a deal for Russian gas through Ukraine for the winter, sanctions aren’t that important really…"

 

 

 


 

 

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US: Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rises to 86.9 in October

 


 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - The US Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index grew to 86.9 in October, from 84.6 recorded the previous month, according to data released by the Reuters/University of Michigan. Analysts expected an increase only to 86.4. 

 

 

 


 

 

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BoJ QE increase and Fed QE end could impact USD/JPY - J.P. Morgan

 


 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - The J.P. Morgan team of analysts see believe that the sharper divergence between the BoJ's and the Fed's monetary policies could have a considerable impact on USD/JPY. 

 

Key quotes

 

"Possible change in relative balance sheet between the BoJ / the Fed and real yield differentials between Japan / US suggest a significant upside risk in USD/JPY."

 

"We now see USD/JPY to appreciate to 120 by September 2015. We recommend buying a 6-mo 114-120 USD/JPY call spread against selling a 6-mo 107 put, RKI 104. This costs 12bp."

 

"Today, the BoJ unexpectedly decided to expend QQE by a 5-4 vote."

 

"Today’s decision indicated BoJ's seriousness to push up Japan's inflation to 2%. Indeed, in their semi-annual Outlook Report, BoJ did not change their forecast of core CPI for FY 2016 at 2.1% (excluding the impact of consumption tax hike)."

 

"BoJ decided to hold more risky assets in their asset side and put liability side (the yen note) at risks. BoJ seems to be very serious to devalue the currency they issue."

 

"If the BoJ, who issue the yen note, are so serious to devalue of the yen, probably it will happen. The next question may be if they can stop the devaluation once Japanese people start worrying about holding the yen note."

 

"Indeed, the giant fund who manages pension money of Japanese people already shows the way. The GPIF also announced new target for their portfolio today."

 

"Under the new portfolio, GPIF will have to sell large amount of JGB, which will be absorbed by the BoJ, and buy more stocks and foreign assets. Actually, new allocation was also surprising to us because they will increase more foreign assets compare to we thought." 

 

 


 

 

Oct 31, 2014

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 


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SEB: EUR/USD fell down to a fresh trend low - eFXnews

 


 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team note that the SEB observes EUR/USD's decline to a fresh trend low on Monday.

 

Key quotes

 

"Following the recheck and validation of the neckline break the market continued its descent down to a fresh trend low hence fulfilling an absolute minimum target for the move, a new low."

 

"Looking forward more likely targets for the current wave 5 should be sought at 1.2398, 1.2326 or 1.2220."

 

"To maintain a healthy downside momentum it is rather important that a rebound ends below 1.2614."

 

'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.' 

 

 


 

 

Nov 03, 2014

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 


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