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GBP/USD finds support above 1.6000


 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Cable dropped further against the US dollar and printed a fresh 4-day low at 1.6006. GBP/USD found support above 1.6000 and rebounded, rising back on top of 1.6030. Greenback remains strong in the market as stocks decline in Wall Street. 

 

GBP/USD trims weekly gains 

 

After starting the week around 1.5960 GBP/USD jumped to the upside and on Thursday, boosted by the reaction of the market to the FOMC minutes reached 1.6225. The same day made a reversal that continued Friday. 

 

During the last 24 hours the pair lost more than 200 pips, trimming weekly gains. Still holds above the level it had a week ago but considerably far from the highs.  

 

 


 

 

Oct 10, 2014

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WTI Crude tanks further, Option traders target $77.50 by Dec


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The WTI Crude prices continue to fall towards a two and a half year low of USD 83.59/barrel hit during the last week. The prices are down 1.25% to trade at USD 84.75/barrel. 

 

The fundamentals of weak demand, weak global growth and excess supplies continue to dominate the market sentiment. Moreover, the weak fundamentals of Crude oil are evident from the activity in the Options data which shows traders are targeting USD 77.50/barrel by December. Implied volatility of January WTI options at that level shows a 25 delta, which is a 25% portability that a $77.50 put option will end up in the money at the Dec. 16 expiration. 

 

Moreover, the Oil and Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) group has blamed the speculators for the recent slump in the Oil prices. 

 

WTI Crude Technical levels

 

Crude has an immediate support of 84.09 below which prices can slump to 83.59 levels. Meanwhile, a breach of 85.00 levels on the upside, shall open doors for the re-test of 86.29 levels. 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 13, 2014

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EUR/USD not there… yet


 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The common currency is now looking to consolidate below the key 1.2700 handle, with EUR/USD gyrating around 1.2690/95.

 

EUR/USD halfway to last week’s tops

 

Spot remains well poised to challenge the key barrier at 1.2700. However, if the USD weakness persists in the upcoming sessions, the pair might try to re-test recent peaks near the 1.2800 handle. “The break of the support at 1.2640 coupled with the weak daily close last Friday suggests further downside pressure for today. Expect 1.2680 to cap for a retest of the strong support at 1.2600/05 but clear break below this level appears unlikely for now”, noted market analysts at UOB Group.

 

EUR/USD levels to watch


At the moment the pair is up 0.49% at 1.2693 with the next resistance at 1.2698 (high Oct.13) ahead of 1.2716 (high Oct.10) and then 1.2743 (21-d MA). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.2638 (200-h MA) would expose 1.2605 (low Oct.10) and finally 1.2583 (low Oct.7). 

 

 


 

 

Oct 13, 2014

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Eurozone Industrial Production seen dropping 1.5% - ING


 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Martin Van Vilet from ING expects August Eurozone Industrial Production numbers to drop further, about 1.5% on a monthly basis. 

 

Key quotes

 

"The national industrial production figures released last week clearly confirmed that the industrial recovery across the Eurozone has lost significant momentum."

 

"Industrial production (excluding construction) in Germany fell a significant 4.3% MoM in August – admittedly partly because of the timing of school holidays."

 

"Industrial output in France, meanwhile, was unchanged, while Italian output rose by only 0.3%."

 

"Production in Spain – which the IMF thinks will outpace Germany in 2015 (we are not so sure yet) – also rose by a modest 0.2%, and although production in the Netherlands saw a much stronger rise (+1.3%), this was solely due to a sharp rise in the erratic mining component."

 

"Taken together, the national data point to a decline in Eurozone aggregate production, due tomorrow, of around 1.5% MoM. That would more than reverse the 1.0% MoM increase seen in July, and even with some rebound in September, it thus seems likely that the industrial sector acted as a drag on GDP in the third quarter."

 

"If the PMI is anything to go by, the much larger services sector fared better and should have contributed positively to GDP growth."

 

"So we doubt whether the overall Eurozone economy contracted in 3Q. Indeed, for the time being we have pencilled in Eurozone GDP growth of 0.1% QoQ in 3Q. Such growth, however, clearly is much too low for comfort."

 

"Pressure on European policymakers to deploy further monetary and renewed fiscal stimulus, therefore, looks set to continue." 

 


 

 

Oct 13, 2014

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Natural Gas gains, traders decrease bullish bets


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Natural Gas prices are trading higher today despite of weather forecasts indicating a low probability of extreme weather conditions. 

 

Natural Gas is trading 0.61% higher at USD 3.883/mmbtu even as the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data released on Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers decreased their bullish bets in the week ending October 7. Net longs fell sharply to 6,288 contracts from 26,166 in the previous week.

 

The latest weather models do hint at pockets of cooler weather across the U.S. in the coming days, although the temperatures are not expected to fall to freezing levels. Consequently, the heating demand for Natural Gas may not pick up much leading to a fall in price. 

 

Natural Gas Technical levels

 

Natural Gas has an immediate resistance of 3.947 (Oct 8 high), while the immediate resistance is located at 3.81 levels. 

 


 

 

Oct 13, 2014

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USD/JPY attempts a shy recovery early US session - FXStreet


 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik observes that USD/JPY has climbed a few pips above the 107.30 immediate support, but the attempts to recover are rather feeble.

 

Key quotes 

 

"With no data to backup currencies’ movements, risk sentiment takes the lead, with easing concerns putting dollar under mild selling pressure."

 

"The EUR/USD hourly chart shows price above a bullish 20 SMA but indicators turning lower above their midlines, as gains remain limited."

 

"In the 4 hours chart price hovers around a flat 20 SMA as momentum continues to head south in negative territory, limiting chances of a firmer advance."

 

"A firmer advance beyond 1.2700 may see the pair approaching 1.2745, while risk to the downside will increase on a break below 1.2660 support now." 

 


 

 

Oct 13, 2014

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S&P futures fall below 1900, hit a fresh 10-week low


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The S&P futures have declined below 1900 levels to hit a fresh ten week low of 1889. The S&P futures were seen trading at the current levels during the first week of August. 

 

The S&P futures are now trading 0.14% lower at 1891, after having hit a low of 1889. Meanwhile, the DJIA has shed 0.26% to trade at 16501.50, while the NASDAQ futures are trading 0.44% lower at 3837.70. 

 

The concerns of global economic slowdown have dragged down the S&P from a high of 2014.50 hit in mid-September. Since then prices have been on a declining trend, as investors priced-in a possibility of an early interest rate hike in the US amid global economic slowdown. 

 

S&P futures Technical levels

 

The S&P futures have an immediate support around 1880 levels, below which prices can fall to 1844 levels. On the upside, the day’s high of 1905.95 should act as a strong resistance level. 

 

 


 

 

Oct 13, 2014

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CBOE VIX hits a 21-month high


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Chicago Board Options Exchange(CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) has hit a 21-month high of 22.30 today as the S&P futures and the DJIA fell by 0.22% and 0.24% respectively. 

 

The CBOE VIX is trading 4.99% higher at 22.30 at the time of writing. The Index bottomed out in June when the index had hit a low of 10.32. Since then, the volatility has been on the rise as the investors price-in the direction of the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy amid weakening global growth. The geopolitical tensions also had a role to play in pushing the VIX higher. 

 

Moreover, the VIX has given a breakout above key resistance levels, which may be a warning of further slide in the equity markets. 

 

VIX Technical levels

 

The VIX has an immediate resistance of 23.23 (Dec 2012 high), above which it can rise to 25.00 levels. On the downside, 21.48 and 18.00 levels should act as the strong support levels. 

 

 


 

 

Oct 13, 2014

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European equities fall as the DJIA weakens


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The weakness in the US Equity markets has pulled down the European equity markets, which were trading about a half a percent up ahead of the US Open.

 

The DJIA is trading 0.16% lower at 16517.50, down from a high of 16595.50, while the S&P futures are trading flat at 1895.15, down from a high of 1905. Consequently , the Dax has erased gains to trade just 0.18% up at 8810 levels. Meanwhile, the FTSE is trading 0.44% up at 6367.90. 

 

The Equity markets in the US are swinging from gains to losses as the markets lack a fundamental trigger today. The US treasury markets are closed, hence no fresh cues are coming-in from the treasury yields. Consequently, the US Dollar Index and the Gold prices are trading lackluster. 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 13, 2014

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EUR/USD keeps the narrow range


 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency is looking to extend its consolidation pattern, with EUR/USD meandering between 1.2680 and 1.2700.

 

EUR/USD unmotivated below 1.2700

 

Spot remains unable to break above the 1.2700 handle so far. In the meantime, dullness seems to be taking over markets following the lack of catalysts and leaving spot without the necessary spark to march beyond the 1.2700 mark. According to strategists at Westpac, “The sharp move in yields spreads against EUR/USD has arguably run its course and EUR/USD has bottomed, albeit only for the time being in both cases… EUR/USD may well trade back toward 1.2900 before upside is exhausted”. 

 

EUR/USD levels to watch

 

At the moment the pair is up 0.41% at 1.2682 with the next resistance at 1.2698 (high Oct.13) ahead of 1.2716 (high Oct.10) and then 1.2743 (21-d MA). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.2638 (200-h MA) would expose 1.2605 (low Oct.10) and finally 1.2583 (low Oct.7). 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 13, 2014

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AUD/USD pressing on to the downside


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - AUD/USD is trading at 0.8757, up 0.82% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8789 and low at 0.8652.

 

AUD/USD ran into supply at 0.8780 resistance and has been levelled at the support of the final session of last weeks business here but weigh quite heavily currently. Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank said however that they would expect the AUD to derive some comfort following the latest September China trade numbers, with both exports and imports coming in stronger than expected. “While the PBOC’s assurances that the risk of a heard landing is very small may temper near term downside for the pair, note that on the CFTC front, net leveraged AUD positioning flipped to a net short balance for the first time since late March 2014”.

 

AUD/USD noteworthy levels

 

Current price is 0.8757, with resistance ahead at 0.8763 (Hourly 200 SMA), 0.8781 (Hourly 100 SMA) and 0.8826 (Daily Classic R2). Next support to the downside can be found at 0.8756 (Daily Classic R1), 0.8746 (Weekly Classic PP), 0.8742 (Hourly 20 EMA), 0.8718 (Daily Classic PP) and 0.8686.  

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 13, 2014

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Fed QE might be needed again - Deutsche Bank


 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Jim Reid, Head of Global Fundamental Credit Strategy at Deutsche Bank argues that another QE program from the Fed is possible, probably during the next US recession.

 

Key quotes

 

"The rationale being that the terminal Fed funds rate will probably not be able to get high enough this cycle for conventional policy alone to be enough by the time we get to the next recession."

 

"By this time the ECB may be fully into QE and the BoJ may have done more, so without Fed QE the dollar might also be becoming too strong for comfort. However after the events of the last few weeks could the Fed actually re-start purchases before a recession?"

 

"Well Fed Williams made some interesting comments yesterday, albeit ones that were caveated. He was quoted as saying that 'If we really get a sustained, disinflationary forecast ... then I think moving back to additional asset purchases in a situation like that should be something we should seriously consider'."

 

"However he did say it would take a big shift in the U.S. economic outlook for the Fed to restart its bond buying and that he still felt it would likely be appropriate to begin lifting rates from zero in the middle of next year."

 

"So a fairly big bid-offer on how Fed policy might evolve over the next 12 month but another small sign from the Fed that there is some recent anxiousness about global growth and inflation." 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 15, 2014

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SEB: GBP/USD near-term below 1.60 - eFXnews


 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team comment that SEB see GBP/USD remaining below the 1.60 level in the nearest future, following another strong decline on Tuesday. 

 

Key quotes

 

"Short-term conditions may be stretched, but few cares and the medium-term mid-Oct'13 reaction low of 1.5854 is fully in sight (below which 1.5785/75 & 1.5753 would come into play)."

 

"A prior near-term low & yesterday's mid-body point provides local resistance around 1.60."

 

"Current intraday stretches are located at 1.5854 & 1.6005."

 

'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.' 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 15, 2014

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CAC declines from a technical resistance


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The French equity index declined after having failed to sustain above the 5-day moving average level of 4088. 

 

The Cac is trading 0.70% lower at 4059.80, in line with its European peers. The index had briefly rose above 4088 levels, to hit a high of 4096. However, the index faced rejection at the 5-day average level post which prices slumped to a day’s low of 4041.30. 

 

The Index details indicate that the fall has been led by Oil and Gas stocks which have declined by 0.5%. Utlities, Automobile and Banking stocks have shed 1%, 0.85%, and 0.77% respectively. Lending some support to the index are the food producers which are up by 2.98%. 

 

Cac Technical levels

 

The Cac has an immediate resistance of 4088-4096 levels, above which the index can re-test 4109 levels (Aug 8 lows). On the flip side, the Cac can re-test 4012 levels if the day’s low of 4041 is taken out.  

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 15, 2014

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US: Retail Sales (Sep) dropped 0.3%


 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Commerce Department has informed that US retail sales have contracted 0.3% MoM during September. Ex autos, sales have also dropped 0.2%. Both prints missed estimates at -0.1% and 0.3%, respectively...  

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 15, 2014

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Banks start to charge customers for deposits in euro - Investec


 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec observes that following ECB's introduction of negative deposit rates some large global banks have begun to charge their clients for holding cash in euros. 

 

Key Quotes

 

"This is the first glimpse of the trickledown effect of the ECB's recent move to negative deposit rates (negative deposit rates mean banks are paying to park their money with the ECB)."

 

"The policy is designed to encourage banks to instead lend that money out to benefit the economy."

 

"After an initial move to negative deposit rates earlier this year, the ECB lowered the rate further in September, leading to some banks now pushing those costs onto customers."

 

"This could be the catalyst for the next move lower in the Euro, as wealthy individuals and larger corporations may choose to heavily reduce Euro holdings to avoid the costs." 

        

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 20, 2014

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EUR/USD lacks momentum


 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD continues to trade within a familiar range Monday as the dollar remains broadly unchanged in a quiet start to the week.

 

In line with expectations Eurozone data failed to inspire EUR/USD, which despite recovering from a low of 1.2729, lacked momentum and remained capped by 1.2780 on the upside. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 1.2765 area, just a few pips higher on the day.

 

With no first-tier data scheduled for this week in the euro area, markets will be watching closely for any official ECB announcement on covered bond buying.


EUR/USD technical levels

 

As for technical levels, immediate resistances for EUR/USD line up at the 1.2835/45 area (Oct 17 & 16 highs), followed by 1.2882 (Oct 15 high) and 1.2900 (psychological level). On the flip side, supports could be seen at 1.2730 (intraday low), 1.2704/00 (Oct 16 low/psychological level) and 1.2623 (Oct 15 low). 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 20, 2014

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USD/JPY drops below 107.00


 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The US dollar erased all gains versus the Yen and closed a bullish gap. USD/JPY failed to hold above 107.00 and after breaking below 106.92 (previous low) fell to 106.82, reaching a fresh daily low. 

 

Price remains near the lows holding bearish momentum as stocks in Europe drop further, favoring the yen in the market. The pair is trading back at the same level it closed Friday, after erasing all gains. 

 

USD/JPY levels to considerer

 

To the upside, immediate resistance lies at 107.17/20 (area that capped the recent rebound from 106.92) and above here at 107.35/40 (daily high), followed by 107.60. On the opposite direction support might lie 106.80 and below here at 106.55 and 106.30. 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 20, 2014

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Speculators reduce bullish bets on WTI Crude


 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The bullish bets on Crude prices stand at six week low as the Crude prices fell into a bear market territory over the last four months. 

 

Speculators and money managers reduced net-long positions in West Texas Intermediate by 8.1 percent in the week ended Oct. 14. Meanwhile, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed, short crude positions jumped to the highest level in 22 months. 

 

However the CTC data comes with a one-week delay, thus the positioning may have changed in the last week after major investment banks predicted the rout may be over. As per Stephen Schork, president of Schork group, “The market has found an area of support around $80”. 

 

WTI Crude is trading 0.40% higher today at USD 82.39/barrel, down from a high of USD 82.73/barrel hit earlier today. 

 

WTI Crude Technical levels

 

WTI Crude has an immediate resistance of 84.78, above which prices can test 86.00 levels. On the other hand, Crude may re-test 80 levels if the prices fail to sustain above 82.00 levels.  

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 20, 2014

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USD/CAD in narrow range around 1.1250


 


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US dollar is sidelining vs. its fellow neighbor on Monday, taking USD/CAD to a tight range between 1.1260 and 1.1280 so far.

 

USD/CAD eyes on the BoC

 

The pair has started the week almost unchanged, looking to consolidate the recent decline after posting multi-year tops in the boundaries of 1.1400 the figure last week. Currently meandering around the mid-1.1200s, the main events for the CAD ahead in the week will be the BoC monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, followed in importance by Retail Sales. From the other side of the border, US housing data, CPI figures and manufacturing gauges will add to the potential catalysts. Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, commented, “dips to the 1.1220/30 were well-supported last week and firm, underlying trend momentum suggests limited downside for the market initially this week at least. From here, we might need a break below 1.12 or above 1.14 to get a better sense of direction”.

 

USD/CAD important levels

 

The pair is now retreating 0.13% at 1.1262 facing the next support at 1.1234 (Tenkan Sen) followed by 1.1211 (low Oct.17) and finally 1.1205 (23.6% of 1.0620-1.1385). On the upside, a break above 1.1294 (high Oct.20) would target 1.1360 (high Oct.16) en route to 1.1385 (2014 high Oct.15).  

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 20, 2014

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GBP/USD attacks 1.6150 again; 1.6185 next frontier


 

 

 

FXStreet (San Francisco) - After a brief rejection from the 11-day high at 1.6153, the GBP/USD is reassuming its upside move from 1.6080 as the pair is now retesting the 1.6150 level again.

 

The move is being fueled by a weak dollar trade in the European session. Ahead of the American opening, GBP/USD is trading at 1.6139, up 0.29% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.6153 and low at 1.6080.

 

GBP/USD sentiment

 

“The GBP/USD trades at its daily high after finally breaching above 1.6125, level that contained the upside for most of these last 2 weeks,” comments Valeria Bednarik from FXStreet. “The upside is favored with 1.6185 as next target once the daily high gives up.”

 

If the pair manages to break above 1.6150, next resistances are at 1.6155 (21-d MA) followed by 1.6200 (50% of 1.6525-1.5875) and Oct. 09 high at 1.6225. 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 20, 2014

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NZD/USD breaks above 0.7960


 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The US dollar is falling on Monday against commodity currencies despite risk aversion. NZD/USD/strong> recently broke above 0.7960 reaching a fresh daily high. 

 

The pair opened the week steady and dropped to 0.7914 (daily low) during the Asian session but then rebounded, and since then moved with an upside bias. The 0.7960 area capped the upside and become an important short term resistance. The pair hit a fresh high at 0.7971 and remains near the lows. 

 

The kiwi still holds a bullish bias in the short term, after posting the on Friday the second weekly gain a row, as it continues to recover from 1-year lows. The next key resistance area lies around 0.8000, that capped the upside last week. 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 20, 2014

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Comex Copper rises to 4-day high


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Copper, on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, is trading at a four-day high after having recovered from the losses of the Asian and European session.

 

Copper is trading 1.16% higher at USD 3.023/pound, after having recovered from the day’s low of USD 2.975/pound. Prices hit a high of USD 3.035 just ahead of the US opening today. Moreover, the metal has recovered from the day’s low tracking the strong performance of the European and the US Equity markets. Speculations are rife that the European Central Bank (ECB) bought Italian covered bonds as it returned to the market for a second day under its asset purchase program. 

 

Copper prices also got a boost after the US National Association of Realtors reported the existing home sales at a one year high in September. Existing home sales rose 2.4 percent to an annual rate of 5.17 million units, beating the Reuters forecast of 5.10 million sales growth. 

 

Copper Technical levels

 

Copper may rise to 3.05 levels, if the metal manages to sustain above 3.026 levels. On the other hand, prices may fall back to 2.975 levels if the support level of 3.00 is breached. 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 21, 2014

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 


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GBP/USD hits fresh daily lows


 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD fell to fresh daily lows at the beginning of the New York session as the greenback gathered pace, especially against European rivals.

 

Following a short-lived bounce, GBP/USD resumed the slide, extending its pullback from a 12-day high of 1.6185 to a low of 1.6130, although the 20-day SMA is helping to contain the downside. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 1.6135 zone, 0.14% below its opening price.

 

GBP/USD: supports & resistances

 

As for technical levels, below 1.6130, next supports could be found at 1.6100 (psychological level) and the 1.6084/1.6079 area (10-day SMA/Oct 20 low). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 1.6198/1.6200 (50.0% Fibo of 1.6523-1.5873/psychological level) and 1.6225 (Oct 9 high). 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 21, 2014

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 


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USD/CAD finds support ahead of 1.1200


 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CAD has entered a consolidation phase right above the 1.1200 level after a short-lived bounce was capped by the 1.1240 zone.

 

USD/CAD hit a 1-week low of 1.1203 earlier on the day as commodity currencies outperformed the USD over the last sessions, but buyers contained the slide ahead of the psychological level. At time of writing, USD/CAD is trading at the 1.1230 zone, still 0.47% below its opening price.

 

USD/CAD short-term outlook

 

“The low 1.12 zone has been pivotal since early October and should continue to hold; below here (trend channel support at 1.1195) and the USD should head back to 1.10/1.11”, said the TD Securities team. “Shorter-term weakness reflects the negative patterns on the longer-term charts that we also highlighted Monday but we rather expect support to hold today”. 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 21, 2014

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 


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