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Credit Suisse: Stay long USD/JPY- eFXnews

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team comment that Credit Suisse advises to maintain a long USD/JPY position.

 

Key quotes

 

"USD/JPY has surged higher, taking out the potential trendline resistance from May 2013 at 107.53, notes Credit Suisse."

 

"Further strength here can see a move towards 109.07 initially, ahead of the medium-term potential trend resistance from June 2007 at 109.31." 

 

"Whilst we would look for an cap here at first, bigger picture, we stay bullish for an eventual break which should then see scope for what we deem as tougher resistance at 110.67/111.60 – the 50% retracement of the entire 1998/2011 bear market and August 2008 high."

 

"In line with this view, CS maintains a long USD/JPY from 106.80 targeting 109.25."

 

'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.'

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 18, 2014

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No move to negative rates by SNB a disappointment to markets - RBS

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - According to the RBS team of analysts, the SNB's decision today to hold monetary policy steady disappointed markets, but an introduction of negative rates could be a shock for the Swiss financial system. 

 

Key quotes

 

"Negative rates would be counter to their objectives of cooling the housing market, could negatively impact the financial system and are not clearly justified by the economic outlook."

 

"Nor have the SNB had to defend the floor in two years."

 

"We expect a continued grind lower in EUR/CHF towards 1.20."

 

"The SNB will likely intervene in the FX market to prevent a print below 1.20."

 

"Negative rates could then emerge if FX reserves began to build rapidly."

 

"But we are not convinced this would be the case, with EUR/CHF declines driven more by broad-based EUR weakness rather than demand for CHF assets."

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 18, 2014

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EUR/USD climbs to fresh daily highs

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD saw a brief drop on the back of better-than-expected US jobless claims data but upbeat employment figures were offset but poor housing starts, allowing the pair to resume the upside.

 

After hitting a session low of 1.2855, EUR/USD stretched to a marginal new high for the day at 1.2912 but is having a hard time finding follow-through as investors remain cautious. 

 

EUR/USD bounced from a fresh 14-month low of 1.2834 earlier on the day, but every recovery attempt has been capped by the 1.2910/15 area so far. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at the 1.2905 zone, 0.32% above its opening price.

 

EUR/USD has had a choppy day on the back of TLTRO disappointing take up and with market attention turning from the Federal Reserve to the Scottish independence referendum.

 

EUR/USD technical outlook

 

“Technically, the EUR/USD 1 hour chart shows price advancing above a still bearish 20 SMA, with indicators heading strongly up above their midlines. Sellers however, seem to be aligned in the 1.2900/20 price zone, adding to the dominant trend”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “In the 4 hours chart the technical stance is still quite bearish, with indicators having barely corrected oversold readings now turning lower well into negative territory, and 20 SMA reaffirming the mentioned resistance area around 1.2920”.

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 18, 2014

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GBP/USD trading at highest level in two weeks - FXStreet

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik points out that the GBP/USD has been climbing on Thursdayas the Scottish independence referendum proceeds, reaching so far a daily high of 1.6386.

 

Key quotes 

 

"Market speculation inclines for a NO win in the ongoing poll about Scotland independence."

 

"The pair has breached the 50% retracement of this month fall, with the 1 hour chart showing a strong upward momentum which supports a continued advance, albeit risk of course, is quite high of headlines messing with technicals."

 

"In the 4 hours chart indicators are also biased higher in positive territory, with 20 SMA now converging with the 38.2% retracement of the same rally around 1.6250."

 

"It won’t be until Asian opening that the market will be closer to known the result which expectations of gains on a NO far more limited than the possible slide on a YES triumph. "

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 18, 2014

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EUR/SEK poised to decline further – Danske Bank

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Stefan Mellin, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, believes the next movement in EUR/SEK will point south.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The SEK has underperformed versus all G10 currencies over the past year”.

 

“Given that no other G10 central bank has cut rates as aggressively as the Riksbank, one might conclude that it has been a reasonable depreciation of the krona”.

 

“The fact that the krona is now undervalued will make the Swedish export sector more competitive and help fuel inflation”.

 

“We think that USD/SEK will continue to go higher based on relative cyclical arguments and for the same reason we see lower levels in EUR/SEK in the year ahead”.

 

“The SEK may trade with a risk premium in the next couple of weeks following the election but, in our view, the next big leg in EUR/SEK is lower”.

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 19, 2014

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Oil price finishes the week flat

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Independent Analyst Malcolm Graham-Wood observes that following a few ups and downs this week the price of oil has ended flat.

 

Key quotes

 

"Ups and downs had primarily to do with the Brent expiry and the US inventory figures showing a big build in stocks."

 

"In addition we had a slight drop in Libyan exports of a temporary nature as rockets went off near a big field but with Buzzard coming back the market remains well supplied."

 

"Scotland has decided and voted conclusively to remain with the Union, with a high turnout of 86% they voted 55%-45% to be better together."

 

"Not even the late intervention of Andy Murray, the Scottish tennis player who used to be in the world’s top ten, could alter the result."

 

”As the Oil & Gas industry was the most affected sector by the vote there will be sighs of relief from Aberdeen and throughout the rest of the business."

 

"Finding the extra 10 billion barrels that the Yes camp claimed would be nice though…"

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 19, 2014

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 


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AUD/USD consolidation ahead? – UOB Group

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Quek Ser Leang, Market Strategist at UOB Group, believes that the current AUD/USD's price action would be part of a broader consolidation pattern.

 

Key Quotes


“The intraday target indicated at 0.8915/20 yesterday was not met with a low of 0.8927”. 

 

“While the undertone for this pair is still weak, the current rebound is likely the early part of a consolidation phase”.

 

“Expect range trading for today, likely between 0.8960 and 0.9015”.

 

 


 

 

Sep 19, 2014

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Fed's Lacker at odds with the central bank's exit strategy

 

 


FXStreet (Łódź) - According to a statement released on Friday, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker didn't entirely support the FOMC's strategy towards normalizing monetary policy, announced on Wednesday, as he saw their decision to hold back selling mortgage-backed securities as misguided.

 

Lacker said that in his view MBS should be sold at a steady price, because by doing otherwise the Fed prolongs its interference in the allocation of credit.

 

"The Fed’s MBS holdings may put downward pressure on mortgage rates, compared to holding an equivalent amount of Treasury securities, but if so, then other borrowers would likely face higher interest rates," he stressed. "While this would favor home mortgage borrowers, it tilts the playing field against other borrowing by consumers."

 

 


 

 

Sep 19, 2014

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USD/CAD slumps as Canadian CPI accelerates

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CAD slumped to its lowest level in near 2 weeks after data showed consumer inflation rose more than expected in August.

 

August's core CPI rose 2.1% YoY in August beating the 1..8% expected and moved above the BoC's 2% inflation target for the first time in more than 2 years. 

 

USD/CAD fell sharply, breaking below 1.0900 and touching a low of 1.0885 so far as the upside surprise may change the Bank of Canada position that inflationary pressures were transitory and move it away from its policy stance.

 

At time of writing, USD/CAD is trading at 1.0890, recording a 0.39% loss on the day. Immediate supports is now seen at 1.0854 (100-day SMA) while the 1.010 area (200-day SMA) could offer resistance on bounces.

 

 


 

 

Sep 19, 2014

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EUR/USD, another ‘dead-cat bounce’?

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The weakness around the single currency is now accelerating, dragging the EUR/USD to test recent lows in sub-1.2850 levels although rebounding to the 1.2865/70 area later. 

 

EUR/USD depressed by USD strength, ECB

 

The selling interest intensifies around the EUR on Friday, as the US dollar continues its march north, taking a toll on the pair. Coupled with the current USD rally, disappointing figures from yesterday’s first TLTRO by the ECB - with banks only taking €82.6 billion - continue to weigh on EUR, as it seems the central bank might need to implement another easing measures (QE?). Camilla Sutton, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, commented, “We expect EUR to drift lower; expecting building downside pressure in EURGBP as its trends towards its 2012 low of 0.7755”. Sutton also added that the technicals remain mixed, “but if today’s close is below the low of 1.2835 it would warn of further downside pressure building. Support lies first at 1.2835 followed by 1.2800; while resistance comes in at today’s open of 1.2923”.

 

EUR/USD levels to watch

 

The pair is now retreating 0.41% at 1.2868 and a breach of 1.2834 (low Sep.17) would target 1.2788 (61.8% of 1.2042-1.3995) en route to 1.2755 (low Jul.9 2013). On the upside, the initial hurdle aligns at 1.2931 (high Sep.18) ahead of 1.2982 (high Sep.17) and finally 1.2995 (high Sep.16).

 

 


 

 

Sep 19, 2014

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EUR/USD targets the mid-1.2700s – Commerzbank

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, sees potential for a descent towards 1.2700 in the near term.

 

Key Quotes

 

“EUR/USD’s 1.2834 low has not been confirmed by the daily RSI and this does throw up a red flag for the down move – we would continue to tighten stops on short positions”.

 

“Directly overhead we find the accelerated downtrend at 1.2951 today and the market is offered while capped here”.

 

“We target the 1.2755 July 2013 low and the 1.2661 November 2012 low shorter term”.

 

“Longer term target remains the 200 month ma at 1.2208. Above 1.2951/1.3000, we have the 23.6% retracement at 1.3105 and the 1.3222 28th August high.

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 19, 2014

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 


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Draghi could comment on TLTRO on Monday - FXStreet

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik points to ECB head Mario Draghi's testimony before the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Committee on Monday as one of the most important events next week. 

 

Key quotes 

 

"We could have a quite entertaining day for a change: he will likely comment on the TLTRO results, probably with an optimistic stance which may give the EUR/USD some intraday support, a chance to add to shorts."

 

"A dovish stance will pressure the common currency, which means he can do little to fight the dominant trend."

 

 


 

 

Sep 19, 2014

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Technical snap shots on majors and crosses - TDS

 

 

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities gave us a snap shot of the technicals across a number of majors and crosses at the close of this week's session.

 

"EUR/USD retains a weak undertone but looks oversold short-term; only gains through 1.2930/35 would signal any scope for near-term strength". 

 

"USD/JPY backs away from 109+ levels and the daily chart looks toppish short-term; expect losses to remain limited for now, however".

 

"EUR/GBP's break below the recent range base stalls and reverses today; the broader trend is lower, however, and we favour fading short-term GBP losses".

 

"EUR/PLN weakness should extend below 4.1725".

 

"AUD/NZD will continue to reflect AUD under-performance; look for a drop back to 1.07/1.08".

 


 

 

Sep 20, 2014

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US affirmed at AAA by Fitch; 'Fed to hike rates in mid-2015'

 

 

 

FXStreet (San Francisco) - Fitch rating affirmed the United States sovereign rating at AAA with stable outlook according to a press release published by the agency. 

 

Fitch highlights the financial flexibility and the capability of US in tolerating higher levels of public debt. In addition, Fitch points out about the standards of living in the US that are above the AAA countries median.

 

Fitch also forecasts "the federal government budget deficit to decline to 2.9% of GDP in FY14, from 4.1% of GDP in FY13 and 9.8% in FY09." However, the agency reminds that "on current policies it will start rising again from FY16, reaching 3.8% in 2022, driven by the impact of population ageing on social security and health spending, and higher net interest costs."

 

Fitch expects that the Fed will "start raising interest rates in mid-2015."

 

Other quotes:

 

We forecast federal government debt held by the public at 73.5% at end-2014 and to rise to 75% in 2024.

 

Fitch forecasts gross general government debt (GGGD) to peak at 100% at end-2014 (excluding trade payables and unfunded pension liabilities, consistent with EU countries). We then project it to decline slightly to 98% in 2018, before starting to trend up again, reaching 104% by 2024. 

 

The US recovery is outpacing that in most advanced countries, albeit sluggish by its own historical standards. Fitch forecasts GDP growth of 2% in 2014, picking up to 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016. 

 

We expect the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates in mid-2015, after completing 'tapering' of its asset purchase programme in October 2014.

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 20, 2014

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What now? - Societe Generale

 

 

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale noted that the Scots have voted to remain in the United Kingdom, removing a major threat for the UK economy and sterling and looks ahead to what’s next?

 

Key Quotes:

 

" FX markets can re-focus on monetary policy divergence and as the Federal Reserve marches towards the exit from QE and ZIRP, the dollar will rally "

 

"For now, the response in equity, credit and emerging markets is far more sanguine than during 2013's ‘Taper Tantrum' but USD will make gains across G10 FX. GBP/USD is a strategic sell, USD/JPY is targeting 110.50 next."

 

"EUR/USD positioning is still heavily short but a disappointing TLTRO take up maintains pressure on the ECB to ‘do more' (even if all they can really do is engineer a weaker currency). NZD is vulnerable to election news this weekend remains a short vs USD along with AUD. And after last weekend's Swedish elections, we remain bullish of USD/SEK and NOK/SEK."

 

 


 

 

Sep 20, 2014

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ECB's Draghi: Ready to implement additional measures if necessary

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - The ECB president assures that the Governing Council is ready to use additional unconventional monetary tools to support the European economy, should the need arise.

 

• He points out however that ECB policy must be complemented by Member States' structural reforms to be effective. 

 

• "The exchange rate is not a policy target but an appreciable increase poses a risk to the euro area recovery."

 

• Combination of new measures will have sizeable impact on the ECB balance sheet.

 

• Purchase programs are a transition from more passive provision of central bank credit to more active management of ECB's balance sheet.

 

 


 

 

Sep 22, 2014

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EUR/USD remains subdued near 1.2850

 

 


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD is keeping the narrow range in the boundaries of the 1.2850 area on Wednesday, leaving behind the mixed results from the German IFO.

 

EUR/USD down from 1.2900

 

The correction lower from yesterday’s tops around 1.2900 the figure seems to have found decent support in the 1.2840 neighbourhood today, although the IFO results for the month of September could limit intraday gains. “The target indicated at 1.2880 yesterday was exceeded with a high of 1.2900. While the subsequent drop is expected to extend lower for today, any down-move is not expected to move below the recent low near 1.2816. On the upside, 1.2900 is acting as a very strong resistance now”.

 

EUR/USD key levels

 

The pair is now up just 0.01% at 1.2849 with the next resistance at 1.2901 (high Sep.23) ahead of 1.2929 (high Sep.19) and then 1.2931 (high Sep.18). On the downside, a break below 1.2843 (low Sep.23) would open the door to 1.2816 (low Sep.22) and finally 1.2800 (psychological level). 

 

 


 

 

Sep 24, 2014

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AUD/USD could slip towards 0.8820/00 – OCBC Ban

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank, sees the likeliness of the AUD to decline to the 0.8822/00 area vs. the greenback.

 

Key Quotes

 

“With investors still preoccupied with China/global growth concerns, the pair may remain under the weather in the current USD/risk appetite environment and the next visible support is expected towards 0.8820 and then 0.8800 if 0.8900 is not re-taken. 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 24, 2014

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GBP/USD remains around 1.6400 - FXStreet

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik points out that the GBP has been steady, trading between Fibonacci levels recently, due to a lack of market-moving UK economic data.

 

Key quotes

 

"The GBP/USD however, remains around 1.6400, a few pips below the 61.8% retracement of this month fall, at 1.6415, level that tested already several times this week."

 

"The 4 hours chart shows an ascendant trend line coming from 1.6051 containing the downside today around 1.6350."

 

"Indicators in the same time frame tuned lower still in positive territory, while price develops above its 20 SMA that anyway presents a bearish slope, showing there’s not enough upward strength in the pair at the time being."

 

"A strong acceleration above 1.6415 is required then to confirm a bullish move, eyeing 1.6460 in the short term, while dips down to 1.6350 will likely be seen as buying opportunities." 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 24, 2014

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USD/JPY attempting a consolidation phase? – UOB

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Market Strategist Que Ser Leang at UOB Group, sees the possibility of the pair to commence a consolidation pattern.

 

Key Quotes

 

“While we anticipated the short-term USD weakness, the down-move exceeded our 108.45/50 target with a low of 108.26”.

 

“The subsequent rebound is likely part of a consolidation phase and not the start of the next bullish up-leg. Expect sideway trading today, likely between 108.30 and 109.00”. 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 24, 2014

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USD/CAD flat-lining below 1.1100

 

 


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback keeps the trade within a very narrow range vs. the Canadian dollar in the equator of the week, relegating the USD/CAD to the 1.1060-80 range.

 

USD/CAD eyes on 1.1100

 

The pair is extending the weekly recovery from Monday lows around 1.0930 to current levels in the 1.1070/80 band, although the 1.1100 barrier still remains elusive for USD bulls. Ahead in the day, US New Home Sales (430K exp. in August) and some Fedspeak could spark some volatility in the pair. In the view of Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, “On the charts, a close above 1.1060 yesterday constitutes a positive signal and opens a retest on the low 1.11s, but we believe funds will move to the tune of the broader USD trends on the day, which suggest the pair will trade the 1.1030/1.1100 range”.

 

USD/CAD key levels

 

At the moment the pair is flat at 1.1078 with the next hurdle at 1.1084 (high Sep.23) ahead of 1.1100 (high Sep.15) and finally 1.1106 (high Mar.27). On the downside, a break below 1.0994 (Tenkan Sen) would open the door to 1.0986 (low Sep.23) and then 1.0955 (Kijun Sen). 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 24, 2014

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USD/JPY remains in range while tries to go beyond 108.80

 

 

FXStreet (San Francisco) - With a few exceptions, the USD/JPY has been trading in a 108.50/109.00 range since September 17 and today's trading the pair tested the lower side at 108.50 but it was contained and now it is attempting to recover prices above 108.75.

 

Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 108.75, down 0.13% on the day, having posted a daily high at 108.93 and low at 108.46. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is strongly bullish.

 

USD/JPY sentiment

 

Earlier in the day, the USD/JPY was trading down amid recent Abe’s comments on impact of weak yen for the regional economies. However the range contained the pair. According to Matt Bacon-Hall, the pair "needs a break of 108.45 or 108.80 to get things moving in the short term."

 

If the pair breaks above 108.80, it will face next resistances at 109.00 and 10920. On the downside, supports are at 108.50, 108.25 and 108.10.  

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 24, 2014

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GBP/USD needs to break above 1.6415 for further upside – OCBC Bank

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank, the sterling needs to convincingly surpass 1.6415 in order to facilitate the way towards the upper-1.6900s. 


Key Quotes

 

“Cable meanwhile may remain somewhat detached while attempting to establish a foothold within the 1.6300-1.6400 zone with GBP outperformance also manifesting via the EUR-GBP since the Scottish referendum”.

 

“In the near term, any ability to pierce and hold above 1.6415 may pave the way to 1.6487”.  

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 24, 2014

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