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EUR/USD remains heavy - Investec

 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec, notes the ongoing strength in the USD.

 

Key Quotes

 

"USDJPY broke higher after trading through decent resistance around 104.00-20 as investors ready for the post Summer moves, while the Australian Dollar weakened on a widening Current account deficit leading many other US Dollar crosses to follow suit".

 

"The USDJPY rally may bring fresh cross-Yen buying to the market that will help support the Euro and Pound in the short term but certainly we expect the Euro to remain heavy into Thursday's ECB meeting with the outside chance of a rate cut remaining a possibility".

 

"The Pound meanwhile will need to get through the next two PMI releases before the market may be tempted to buy some Pounds before Thursday's MPC meeting."

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 02, 2014

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USD/CAD breaks above 1.0900

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is confirming its momentum vs. its neighbour on Tuesday, lifting the USD/CAD beyond 1.0900 the figure.

 

USD/CAD eyes on US, CAD data

 

Markets are slowly returning to normalcy following yesterday’s inactivity due to the Labor Day. Ahead in the day, gauges of the manufacturing sector in both Canada and the US – PMI and ISM – are set to mark the pace of price action while spot is looking to consolidate the recent breakout of the key handle at 1.0900. “Technically, the heavy selling seen early last week still did a fair amount of damage to the broader picture—the weekly chart formed a bearish weekly reversal signal overall last week—but the strength of the bounce off the low Friday suggests no immediate pressure on the low 1.08 area for now”, signaled Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities.

 

USD/CAD levels to watch

 

The pair is now advancing 0.38% at 1.0913 and a break above 1.0921 (10-d MA) would aim for 1.0956 (high Aug.27) and then 1.0998 (high Aug.26). On the flip side, the initial support lines up at 1.0857 (low Sep.1) ahead of 1.0810 (low Aug.29) and finally b1.0796 (low Jul.29).

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 02, 2014

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Chinese, US data boosting risk sentiment – Danske Bank

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Recent releases in the Chinese economy and the US gave extra wings to the risk appetite today.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Chinese service PMIs released this morning showed a rebound in sentiment”.

 

“China’s official non-manufacturing PMI rose from 54.2 in July to 54.4 in August and HSBC’s service PMI rose to 54.1 in August from 50.0 in July”. 

 

“The combination of strong US data together with a rebound in Chinese service PMIs has boosted sentiment on Asian bourses and most regional indices trade higher this morning”. 

 

“In addition, risk appetite is supported by speculations that Japan prime minister Abe will soon appoint a policy maker to head the health ministry (which is in charge of the Government Pension Investment Fund, GPIF), who may introduce new pension reforms forcing GPIF to shift away from Japanese government bonds towards more risky assets”.

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 03, 2014

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Russia denies ceasefire deal

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - The Kremlin has just released a disclaimer that no ceasefire deal has been reached with Ukrainian President Petro, due to the fact that Russia is not a party in the conflict.

 

The EUR/USD slid immediately to 1.3133 on the news.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 03, 2014

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Deflationary risks in the euro bloc looming – Rabobank

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, assessed the last figures from the inflation figures in Euroland and compares them with the Japanese case.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Over the past year or so the strong disinflationary trend of the Eurozone has resulted in numerous comparisons over whether the region could be headed towards Japanese style deflation”.

 

“While the BoJ may currently be able to claim some success in pushing higher inflation expectations, the ECB cannot. ECB President Draghi last week emphasised that there had been a “significant decline at all horizon” in inflation expectations and it was this that drew the pledge to use “all the available instruments needed” to ensure price stability”.

 

“The BoJ sees a rise in inflation expectations as being pivotal in breaking out of the deflationary loop. On this point, it is clear that the ECB is agreed”.

 

“Insofar as there is a causal link between CPI inflation and inflation expectations, how low Eurozone CPI inflation falls is likely to have a strong bearing on determining how far the ECB will go in provide fresh policy incentives”.

 

“A Reuters surveys suggests that economists are of the view that the ECB may have embarked in QE by March next year. Continued weak EZ CPI readings will likely ensure further interim policy announcements”.

 

“We expect the EUR to remain under pressure, though with further stimulus from the BoJ still possible we would prefer to sell the EUR vs. the USD rather than the JPY”.

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 03, 2014

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EUR/USD up and down on Ukrainian news - FXStreet

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik comments on today's EUR/USD moves, with risk once on and then off again and then back on due to the contradicting news coming from different sources on the Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire deal. 

 

Key quotes

 

"Early news of a permanent ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia triggering a relief rally among high yielders and pushing EUR/USD up to 1.3550."

 

"But the news was denied around 30 minutes later, as Putin spokesman denied the cease fire, but a few minutes afterwards it said that Russian President does back the idea of a immediate ceasefire in Ukraine."

 

"The EUR/USD retraced down to current 1.3140 area, measly 20 pips above pre news levels, with the hourly chart showing price struggling around a bearish 20 SMA and momentum crossing its midline to the upside."

 

"Chances of a stronger upward move seem limited with all the back and forth in the geopolitical news, and ahead of ECB economic policy decision on Thursday, yet an upward acceleration above mentioned daily high could see price approaching the 1.3190/1.3200 price zone."

 

"On the other hand, the downside remains protected by the static support at 1.3105, September 2013 monthly low, and it will take a clear break below it to see a bearish extension towards 1.3050/60 price zone.

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 03, 2014

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Gold recovers from 11-week lows

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Gold recovered from 11-week lows Wednesday and it is trading nearly flat on the day amid contradictory headlines about an agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

 

The yellow metal saw a quick drop toward a fresh 11-week low near $1,261 as investors dumped the safe-haven in a bout of risk appetite. However, with Moscow downplaying the truce, the price climbed back to opening levels. At time of writing, the XAU/USD is trading at $1,267/oz, little changed on the day.

 

On Tuesday, greenback's strength outweighed any safe-haven appeal and pushed gold prices toward their biggest fall in nearly 3 months.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 03, 2014

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USD/JPY clinches to 105.00

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is losing the grip vs. the Japanese currency on Wednesday, with the USD/JPY now coming down to the 105.00 region from above 105.30.

 

USD/JPY points to fresh year highs above 105.40

 

Spot remains bid despite today’s correction, recently boosted by changes in Abe’s cabinet. The pair seems to be taking a breather on its way to test ytd peaks just above the 105.40 level against the backdrop of the USD rally. “The anticipated USD strength is much, much stronger than expected. Upward momentum remains strong and the current rally is expected to extend towards the year-to-date high of 105.40/45; 104.85 is acting as a strong intraday support”, observed Quek Ser Leang, Market Strategist at UOB Group.

 

USD/JPY levels to watch

 

At the moment the pair is losing 0.02% at 105.07 and a breakdown of 104.41 (Tenkan Sen) would expose 104.30 (low Sep.2) and finally 104.20 (10-d MA). On the other hand, the immediate hurdle lines up at 105.31 (high Sep.3) ahead of 105.42 (high Jan.10) and then 105.45 (2014 high Jan.1).

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 03, 2014

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Session Recap: Ukraine's headlines drive markets

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Investors welcomed news of an agreement between Russia and Ukraine to cease fire, which lifted risk appetite across markets. However, equities trimmed some of their initial spikes, gold recovered from lows and the euro eased from highs as markets are confused by subsequent downplays and denials from Moscow.

 

The EUR/USD jumped to a high of 1.3156 following the first headlines despite disappointing services PMIs from the region. The GBP/USD recovered from 6-month lows, helped by a strong service PMI reading, but the bounce was halted a few pips shy of the 1.6600 level.

 

The USD/JPY remained pretty steady around 105.00, while the AUD/USD continued to benefit from a strong GDP reading and hawkish comments from RBA Stevens.

 

Elsewhere, European equities and US futures remain firm but off highs. Gold bounced of an 11-week low and erased intraday losses to trade near $1,267 an ounce.

 

During the New York session, watch for US factory orders data and the Fed beige book. 

 

Main headlines in Europe:

 

What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and OCBC Bank

 

EUR/USD ignored PMIs, focused geopolitics and rushed above 1.3150

 

Ukrainian and Russian presidents agree permanent ceasefire

 

UK: Services PMI rises against expectations in August

 

Risk appetite surges as Russia and Ukraine agree ceasefire

 

European Monetary Union Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 0.8%, below expectations (0.9%) in July

 

Russia denies ceasefire deal

 

USD/RUB lost all the September gains in a second

 

Gold recovers from 11-week lows

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 03, 2014

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USD/CAD dips to test 1.0900

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The USD/CAD is putting the 1.0900 key support to the test now, coming down from overnight peaks above 1.0940.

 

USD/CAD focus on the BoC 

 

A context favouring the riskier assets is clearly playing against the greenback in the middle of the week, prompting spot to partially erase weekly gains. Data wise today, US Factory Orders for the month of July (11.0% exp.) would precede the key BoC monetary policy meeting. “Fundamentally, we are USD bullish and think the CAD may emerge from other side of the BoC statement a little softer. But technically, the short-term charts suggest that the intraday peak may be in for USDCAD here already and that funds may pressure support around 1.09 (200-day MA at 1.0901)”, suggested Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities.

 

USD/CAD levels to watch

 

The pair is now retreating 0.22% at 1.0902 and a break below 1.0857 (low Sep.1) would target 1.0810 (low Aug.29) en route to 1.0796 (low Jul.29). On the upside, the initial resistance aligns at 1.0956 (high Aug.27) ahead of 1.0998 (high Aug.26) and finally 1.1007 (high May 2).

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 03, 2014

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Credit Agricole: Strong US data could keep the recent USD trend in place - eFXnews

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team point out that Credit Agricole believe that the broad-based rally in USD is driven mostly by data surprises and economic divergence. 

 

Key quotes

 

"US economic data surprises surged in August and the index has retraced nearly 76% of the 2014 move. Moreover, yesterday’s release of the August ISM manufacturing showed the index at a multi-year high."

 

"In relative terms, the outperformance of US data surprises against the G10 persists."

 

"This dynamic has led the 2-year rate to increase 14bp over the past three months, recoupling the association between front-end rates and FX."

 

"We also note the recoupling of the 2-year rate and FX suggests that economic data, rather than Fed rhetoric, should have a greater impact on price action."

 

"As such, stronger US economic releases this week could keep the recent USD trend in place, especially at the expense of currencies with central banks in easing mode."

 

"However, mild pullback is likely given market positioning and possible technical exhaustion."

 

"A possible pivot point for the DXY index is the 83.73 level – a key retracement level from July 2013 high."

 

'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.'

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 03, 2014

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CAD firms a Little ahead of BoC - TD Securities

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - The TD Securities team of analysts observe that ahead of the Bank of Canada interest rate announcement today the USD/CAD fell from the 40s back to near 1.0900.

 

Key quotes

 

"Fundamentally, we are USD bullish and think the CAD may emerge from other side of the BoC statement a little softer."

 

"But technically, the short-term charts suggest that the intraday peak may be in for USDCAD here already and that funds may pressure support around 1.09 (200-day MA at 1.0901)."

 

"Below here should see 1.0870 retested."

 

"Contrasting fundamental/technical drivers underscore our broader view that we may remain in a 1.08/1.10 range until a stronger sense of direction develops. "

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 03, 2014

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Odds of more ECB easing increase - Ilian Yotov

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Ilian Yotov, Portfolio Manager at ATFX Currency Management believes that there is more possibility of the ECB announcing monetary policy easing at the meeting on Thursday due to the further decline in Eurozone CPI and the area's growth grinding to a halt in Q2. 

 

Key quotes

 

"The ECB President Draghi has also been very clear in recent speeches that the door is wide open to easing monetary policy further."

 

"In fact, the ECB has announced recently that it is looking to hire consultants to advise the central bank on QE strategies."

 

"With the ECB one step closer to launching a QE program, the divergence in the monetary policies between the ECB and other central banks is becoming bigger and even more visible, which should keep the EUR under pressure."

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 03, 2014

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BoC keeps interest rate unchanged at 1% in September

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - In line with forecasts, the Bank of Canada decided to maintain its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 1% at its September monetary policy meeting. The bank rate remained at 1.25% and the deposit rate at 0.75%. 

 

In a statement released after the decision was made known, the BoC said that inflation, currently near the 2% target accelerated due to "energy prices, exchange rate pass-through, and other sector-specific factors rather than to any change in domestic economic fundamentals."

 

Canadian Q2 GDP has strengthened in line with the central bank's predictions, but a sustained expansion needs to be seen "before it will translate into higher business investment and hiring." 

 

Due to the fact that "the outlook for inflation remain roughly balanced, while the risks associated with household imbalances have not diminished" the BoC decided that keeping its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 1% was an appropriate move this month.

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 03, 2014

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GBP/USD marking time ahead of BoE

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD continues to suffer amid fears of Scottish independence as investors await the Bank of England policy decision.

 

However, in the absence of surprises from the BoE, as widely expected, attention will quickly return to the Scottish referendum. Jitters of a yes vote has kept the pound under pressure this week, having lost roughly 2 cents over the last sessions. 

 

Goldman Sachs has warned a "yes" vote on September 18, while seemingly unlikely, could have severe consequences for both the Scottish economy and the UK overall.

 

GBP/USD bottomed out at 1.6439 yesterday’s NY session, last seen February 12, and is currently going through a consolidation phase just above that level. At time of writing, Cable is trading at 1.6458, virtually unchanged on the day.

 

GBP/USD levels to watch

 

As for technical levels, immediate supports are seen at 1.6439 (Sep 3 low), 1.6425 (Feb 12 low) and 1.6400 (psychological level). On the other hand, resistances line up at 1.6464 (Sep 4 high), 1.6485 (23.6% Fibo of 1.6643-1.6439) and the 1.6496/1.6500 area (Sep 3 high/psychological level).

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 04, 2014

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ECB's Draghi: Governing Council decided to buy simple ABS

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - The ECB Governing Council unexpectedly decided to cut rates to new record lows at the September meeting, and during the subsequent press conference Mario Draghi announces also the start of ABS purchases.

 

• ABS purchases will facilitate credit flows to the economy, the ECB head explains. 

 

• Details will be announced on October 2.

 

• The new measures will have a sizable impact on the ECB balance sheet.

 

• The measures will support forward guidance on key interest rates. 

 

• "If necessary, the Governing Council is unanimous in its commitment to using additional unconventional instruments within its mandate."

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 04, 2014

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EUR/GBP homing in on 0.7900

 

 

 

FXStreet (London) - Following the ECB decision to cut rates to 0.05% from 0.15%, while the BoE held firm at 0.5%, EUR/GBP has declined sharply today, with 0.7900 in focus.

 

ECB trims, BoE holds

 

With the BoE holding policy as expected, the main focus of the day fell on the ECB’s decision to trim rates from 0.15% to 0.05% record lows. In the current press conference, Draghi has commented that the ECB has decided to start ABS purchases aimed at facilitating credit flows to the European economy. The measures are set to start on October 2nd, and will have a sizeable effect on the ECB balance sheet. Further, he added that the Governing Council is unanimous in its commitment to using additional unconventional instruments within its mandate.


EUR/GBP price action

 

Having traded in a tight range overnight, sitting above the daily pivot point at 0.7983. However, with the ECB rate cut, spot dived dramatically from a morning high at 0.7992, to a low at 0.7913. While near term momentum looks to have steadied the decline, the rest of Draghi’s speech and presser will be watched closely to see if 0.7900 will be tested.

 

EUR/GBP Levels

 

Current price is 0.7919, with resistance ahead at 0.7934 (Weekly Classic PP), 0.7940 (Daily Classic S3), 0.7946 (Hourly 100 SMA), 0.7952 (Hourly 200 SMA) and 0.7952 (Daily Classic S2). To the downside we see next support at 0.7914 (Daily Low), 0.7905 (Monthly Low), 0.7905 (Weekly Low), 0.7892 (YTD Low) and 0.7891 (Annual Low).

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 04, 2014

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ECB's Draghi: No more cuts planned

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - During the Q&A part of the press conference Draghi informs that the decision to cut rates and buy loans was not unanimous.

 

• The unexpected decision will not undermine credibility, the ECB head assures.

 

• "ECB is at the lower bound where technical adjustments will not be possible."

 

• QE was discussed by the Governing Council today. 

 

•"This time we would buy outright ABS Senior and Mezzanine tranches only with a guarantee."

 

• The Governing Council discussed several figures on the ABS plan but for now it is difficult to assess.

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 04, 2014

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GBP/USD bounces at 1.6400

 

 

 

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The GBP/USD is performing a bounce from 1.6400 area as the pair is now trading at 1.6430. Earlier, the cable fell 70 pips from 1.6465 to trade at lows since February 11 at 1.6390 amid central banks decision. 

 

However the pair found buying interest at this level and now it is attempting to recover above 1.6430. Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.6431, down 0.18% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.6467 and low at 1.6394.

 

GBP/USD spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish. 

 

GBP/USD levels

 

If the pair continues to recover, next resistance will be 1.6460, 1.6500 and 1.6545. On the downside, 1.6395, 1.6340 and 1.6250 are supports.

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 04, 2014

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ECB's Draghi: ECB's move prompted by worsening inflation outlook in August

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - When asked about the definition of QE Draghi explains that it's not related to size but rather to the modalities.

 

• The program is designed just to boost bank lending. 

 

• Draghi also assures a "comfortable" majority of the Governing Council members were in favor of implementing the ABS program. 

 

• "Rules have been followed when hiring investment management company BlackRock as a consultant for ABS program.

 

• Draghi points to the deterioration of inflation expectations in August as the reason for cutting rates and introducing new measures at today's meeting. 

 

• Eurozone recovery is losing momentum. 

 

• Measures introduced today were aimed at moving the balance sheet up to 2012 levels.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 04, 2014

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ECB's Draghi: New measures to provide support to TLTRO

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - The ECB chief stresses that the measures introduced at today's meeting should reinforce the TLTRO program intoduced in June and coming into effect this month.

 

• ABS will include real estate, Draghi informs. 

 

• It will purchase loans to the real economy.

 

• "Structural reforms, fiscal policy and monetary policy can jointly support growth."

 

• Draghi stresses that there is no bargain between Eurozone politicians and central bankers as they all should be doing their own jobs.

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 04, 2014

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USD/CHF surges to 1-year highs

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CHF rallied to a fresh 1-year high as the franc weakened, moving in tandem with the euro, after announcement of rate cuts and asset buying program by the European Central Bank.

 

USD/CHF has risen nearly 100 pips within the last hour, reaching a peak of 0.9269, last seen September 17 2013. At time of writing, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9265, 0.98% above its opening price, while EUR/USD hovers barely above 1.3000.

 

Following ECB move, many suggested the SNB could be the next to cut deposit rates to protect the 1.2000 floor on EUR/CHF. However, such a decision is not imminent as the SNB still has other tools such as intervention for that aim.

 

EUR/CHF has printed a 22-month low of 1.2043 and it was last at 1.2055.

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 04, 2014

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ECB cuts rates and announces ABS purchases to fight low inflation

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - During the press conference following ECB's unexpected decision to cut rates to new record lows at the September meeting, Mario Draghi also announced that simple asset-backed securities and covered bonds purchases would be launched next month.

 

The introduction of ABS purchases, which are supposed to facilitate credit flows to the economy, was backed by a "comfortable" majority of the Governing Council members, as Mario Draghi assured.

 

The measures are expected to reinforce the TLTRO program announced in June and coming into effect this month and push the balance sheet up to levels seen in 2012. Draghi refused to determine the size of the ABS program however, suggesting it is currently "difficult to assess."

 

The introduction of measures, as well as the rate cuts, were prompted by the deterioration of inflation expectations in August, Draghi said. The ECB inflation forecast for 2014 was cut to 0.6% from 0.7%, while predictions for 2015 and 2016 remained unchanged, at 1.1% and 1.4%, respectively. 

 

As far as growth forecasts for the Eurozone are concerned, they were reduced to 0.9% this year from 1%, to 1.6% from 1.7% the next and were raised to 1.9% from 1.8% for 2016. 

 

"Structural reforms, fiscal policy and monetary policy can jointly support growth," Draghi assured.

 

During the Q&A part of the press conference Draghi informed that the decision to cut rates and buy loans was not unanimous and that now "rates are at the lower bound where technical adjustments will not be possible."

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 04, 2014

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 


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US: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI increases in August against forecasts

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - The US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI grew to 59.6 in August from 58.7 in July, the Institute for Supply Management informed on Thursday. Analysts expected a drop to 57.5.

 

 

 

 


 

 

Sep 04, 2014

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 


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