OctaFX_Farid Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 Draghi expected to signal 'wait and see' stance at tomorrow's press conference - FXStreet FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Analyst Jamie Coleman suggests that ECB chief Mario Draghi will focus on two main themes during tomorrow's post-decision press conference: ECB's need to assess the impact of last month's measures and the availability of additional policy tools. Key quotes "Draghi will stress that the programs announced in June have not yet been fully implemented. TLTROs won't even launch until September. ABS market rejuvenation is a long-term project and has barely begun." "'We have additional tools.' He won't go into much detail, frankly because there is no there there. Draghi will bluff, however, saying the governing council stands united if additional easing measures are needed." "There are outside risks that since the euro heads into the July meeting on firmer footing than it entered the June meeting, he could attempt to talk down the currency. I put the odds of that at about 1-in-3. Perhaps he will repeat that 'brutal' FX moves are unwelcome, as his predecessor Trichet did in 2004 and again in 2007." "The risk for the ECB is that the market determines that it is truly out of bullets and pushes the euro even higher in an effort to provoke a policy response. Markets love to inflict pain, and that would be a very good way to do it." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 EUR/USD comfortable between 1.3500 - 1.3750- Scotiabank FXStreet (Córdoba) - Camilla Sutton, analyst at Scotiabank commented that it is too early tojudge the impact of latest ECB policies and so the bank would probably use a cautious tone, leaving the EUR/USD comfortable between 1.3500 and 1.3750. Key Quotes “Yesterday, EUR reached a multi‐month high, flirting with 1.37; however into the NA open it has softened, down 0.1%. Recent data has been mixed; the Eurozone manufacturing PMI suggest expansion but at a slower rate than expected; the flash CPI hints at a bottoming in disinflantionary pressures; while today’s PPI warns of ongoing disinflationary pressures”. “We expect it is the above that will shape the tone at the ECB. Last month’s actions were dramatic but it is still early to judge the impact. Accordingly we expect a fairly cautious tone, but one the market is prepared for. For EUR this implies it should be comfortable trading in a broad range of 1.35 to 1.3750”. “EUR/USD short‐term technicals: bullish—most studies warn of upside momentum; however a break and close below Monday’s open of 1.3647 would warn of fading upside pressure. Support lies at 1.3600; while resistance comes in at the 100‐day MA at 1.3740”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 EUR/USD 1.3647 is key - Scotiabank FXStreet (Guatemala) - Camilla Sutton, CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank notes the conditions surrounding the EUR/USD as we are getting two sides to the story here. Key Quotes: "Yesterday, EUR reached a multi-month high, flirting with 1.37; however into the NA open it has softened, down 0.1%”. “Recent data has been mixed; the Eurozone manufacturing PMI suggest expansion but at a slower rate than expected; the flash CPI hints at a bottoming in disinflationary pressures; while today’s PPI warns of ongoing disinflationary pressures." "We expect it is the above that will shape the tone at the ECB. Last month’s actions were dramatic but it is still early to judge the impact." "Accordingly we expect a fairly cautious tone, but one the market is prepared for. For EUR this implies it should be comfortable trading in a broad range of 1.35 to 1.3750." "EUR/USD short-term technicals: bullish—most studies warn of upside momentum; however a break and close below Monday’s open of 1.3647 would warn of fading upside pressure. Support lies at 1.3600; while resistance comes in at the 100-day MA at 1.3740." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 US labor market gaining momentum, but 'shadow unemployment' still severely high - BNP Paribas FXStreet (Łódź) - Alexandra Estiot, Senior Economist at BNP Paribas comments on the surprisingly strong US NFP report which showed an increase in hiring of 288K in June, saying that a momentum is definitely building, although the level of underutilization of labor remains high. Key quotes "On a 3-month average basis, job creations reached 272k in June. On a year-on-year basis, payrolls growth is a notch below 2.5 million, i.e. the highest reading since the end of 2005." "As we have argued for a long time, even if very strong over the last five months –and longer, actually, if December 2013 and January 2014 are analysed as harsh winter related weakness –this pace is still insufficient for rapidly absorbing the very high level of under-utilised labour." "What Janet Yellen recently called 'shadow unemployment' remains severely high. We can always argue about how to measure it, as the labour force participation rate definitely went down partly because of an ageing population, but its effects are clear." "Indeed, despite the rapid fall in the unemployment rate, which reached a 6-year low of 6.1% in June, average hourly earnings did not accelerate at all. In June, they gained 0.2% over the month, i.e. +2% from a year earlier, incredibly stable over the last four years." "Still, there are signs that optimism is allowed. The duration of unemployment episodes is going down. On average, they last 33.5 weeks in June, as compared with37.1 in February. This improvement is noticeable in broad measures of unemployment." "As long as wage inflation remains that subdued and the labour force participation rate does not go up again, there will be no reasons to call it a victory over mass unemployment." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 EUR/USD finds support at 1.3595, back to 1.3620 FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Euro finally found support at the 1.3600 area against the US dollar as the pair is bouncing back to trade around 1.3620. The EUR/USD fell around 55 pips from 1.3650 post US employment report to trade below the 1.3600 mark at 1.3595, lowest since June 26. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.3614, down 0.33% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.3665 and low at 1.3595. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bearish. EUR/USD sentiment EUR/USD is trading in consolidation mode around former support at 1.3620. If the pair manages to recover above this level, next resistances are at 1.3640 and 1.3660. On the downside, supports come at 1.3600, 1.3575 and 1.3560. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 USD/JPY extends advance to 2-week high at 102.25 The USD/JPY extended its post-NFP gains from 101.80 area and now it is testing the 102.25 level where the pair found some selling interest. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 102.19, up 0.43% on the day, having posted a daily high at 102.30 and low at 101.75. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing overbought conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish. USD/JPY Sentiment "US 10 year notes are now at a 2.657% yield, up a bit less than 3 bp on the day. Earlier they rose to 2.69%, briefly," points Jamie Coleman from FXStreet. "USD/JPY may struggle to maintain its altitude if yields ease further. We trade now at 102.15 after reaching 102.26 highs earlier this morning." If the pair manages to break above 102.25, it would face resistance at 102.40 and 102.60. On the downside, supports are at 102.00, 101.75 and 101.60. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 USD/CAD strongly rejected at 1.0680; now at daily lows FXStreet (San Francisco) - After trying to break above highs around 1.0680, the USD/CAD was rejected at this level and launched to trade at daily lows around 1.0630. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.0636, down 0.26% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.0682 and low at 1.0633. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is strongly bearish. USD/CAD levels On the downside, a break below 1.0620 would expose the 1.0600 area ahead of 1.0590. On the upside, resistances are at 1.0645, 1.0680 and 1.0695. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 USD/CAD strongly rejected at 1.0680; now at daily lows FXStreet (San Francisco) - After trying to break above highs around 1.0680, the USD/CAD was rejected at this level and launched to trade at daily lows around 1.0630. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.0636, down 0.26% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.0682 and low at 1.0633. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is strongly bearish. USD/CAD levels On the downside, a break below 1.0620 would expose the 1.0600 area ahead of 1.0590. On the upside, resistances are at 1.0645, 1.0680 and 1.0695. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 USD/CAD strongly rejected at 1.0680; now at daily lows FXStreet (San Francisco) - After trying to break above highs around 1.0680, the USD/CAD was rejected at this level and launched to trade at daily lows around 1.0630. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.0636, down 0.26% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.0682 and low at 1.0633. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is strongly bearish. USD/CAD levels On the downside, a break below 1.0620 would expose the 1.0600 area ahead of 1.0590. On the upside, resistances are at 1.0645, 1.0680 and 1.0695. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 4, 2014 Author Share Posted July 4, 2014 UK Industrial Production expected to rise 0.3% in May - RBS FXStreet (Łódź) - Ross Walker, Senior UK Economist at RBS, predicts that month-on-month UK Industrial Production data, due out next Tuesday, could rise 0.3% in May. Key quotes "Industrial production rose 0.4% m/m in April, taking the y/y rate up to 3.0% from 2.5% and growth in the latest 3 months up to 1.1% from 0.7%." "The rise in April was underpinned by a 0.4% rise in manufacturing output – the fifth successive monthly rise, with a positive contribution from electricity, gas & steam being offset by declines in oil & gas and water supply." "Survey evidence has remained positive, with the PMI output balance remaining at elevated levels in May. CBI industrial trends orders and output balances were barely altered in May (at relatively buoyant levels)." "Similarly, the BoE Agents scores for manufacturing output were broadly maintained in May, with domestic activity more buoyant than the export-facing sector." "We forecast IP to rise 0.3% m/m in May, taking the y/y rate up to 3.2% and leaving the sector on course to expand by 1.0% q/q in Q2." "For manufacturing output, the risks appear skewed towards a slightly higher outturn (given the more-often-than-not drag from the energy components – in 7 of the previous 8 months)." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 4, 2014 Author Share Posted July 4, 2014 AUD/USD sitting ugly mid 0.93 handle FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD is trading at 0.9354, up 0.07% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.9369 and low at 0.9343. AUD/USD has remained within a tight range since finding a footing yesterday after its collapse based upon Stevens. There was no data overnight in Asia and we now move into July 4th holidays so we will need to wait until next week to see what traders will do with this pair now ahead of the FOMC minutes. We did have the RBA Head of Financial Stability, Luci Ellis speaking last night on ‘Reforming and Financing Post-crisis Future’. But this speech was more observational with no market impact. Meanwhile, the FXStreet Trend Index is strongly bearish still. RSI is in neutral territory at 55.99, up from it’s last hourly close at 40.33. Looking to a daily chart, we see that RSI is neutral at 46.53. AUD/USD Levels Current price is 0.9354, with resistance ahead at 0.9357 (Hourly 20 EMA), 0.9369 (Daily High), 0.9370 (Weekly Classic S1), 0.9374 (Daily Classic PP) and 0.9392 (Daily 20 SMA). Next support to the downside can be found at 0.9347 (Weekly Low), (Daily Open), 0.9343 (Daily Low), 0.9329 (Yesterday's Low) and 0.9315 (Weekly Classic S2). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 4, 2014 Author Share Posted July 4, 2014 GBP/USD closing London in mid 1.71 handle FXStreet (Guatemala) - GBP/USD is trading at 1.7149, down -0.03% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.7181 and low at 1.7131. GBP/USD was taken out in mid point London after posting the high for the year 1.7181. It is settled in at and around 1.7150 as we approach London closing which leaves the long term and committed bulls in for action next week and room for those who cashed in to re-enter if their sights are still set on the psychological 1.72 handle. The main risk events ahead for the pair will be the FOMC minutes and then the BoE next week. Looking to a daily chart, we see that RSI is neutral at 71.82. GBP/USD Levels With spot trading at 1.7150, we can see next resistance ahead at 1.7151 (Hourly 20 EMA), 1.7155 (Daily Open), 1.7166 (Monthly High), (Weekly High) and (Annual High). Support below can be found at 1.7142 (Daily Classic PP), 1.7141 (Hourly 100 SMA), 1.7131 (Daily Low), 1.7114 (Daily Classic S1) and 1.7114(Weekly Classic R2). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 4, 2014 Author Share Posted July 4, 2014 ECB watching exchnage rate with "great attention"- BBH FXStreet (Guatemala) - Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman noted that the euro has shed a big figure against the dollar this week after it failed to establish a foothold above the 1.3700. Key Quotes: "There were no substantial near-term policy developments from the ECB yesterday. The focus was on the announcements of lengthening the time between meetings to six weeks and the eventual release of minutes from the meetings. Last month Draghi was understood to say that interest rate policy had been exhausted, but today he seemed to backtrack a bit." "He said that a technical adjustment could not be ruled out. It is not clear what this means, but it could be a cut in the corridor by bringing the marginal lending rate down." "On the exchange rate, Draghi shed little fresh light. It is not a policy target, but it is an important input into inflation." "He did seem a bit frustrated with the euro's resilience despite the rate cuts and other measures. He said he was watching the exchange rate with "great attention."" OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 4, 2014 Author Share Posted July 4, 2014 EUR/USD year end target 1.3000 - BAML FXStreet (Guatemala) - Team BAML explained that their forecast for EUR/USD at year end is 1.30, a move of less than 5%. Key Quotes " This seems eminently achievable (25% of FX forecasters agree), but options imply only a 10% probability that it will occur." "This probability seems very low yet by most measures the options are fair or even expensive so how can this be? This simple example illustrates how extreme low volatility creates a disconnect between perception and pricing of what constitutes a tail event." "This phenomenon is particularly pronounced for currencies because they are a low volatility asset class. Currencies are not historically close to equilibrium levels, so that the size of adjustments that a tail event would produce should be at least comparable to prior instances. Subdued global inflation suggests that a tail event is unlikely, but almost by definition tail events always seem unlikely, so how can we prepare in the most cost efficient manner?" OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 7, 2014 Author Share Posted July 7, 2014 Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM) unchanged at 0.1% in June Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 07, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 7, 2014 Author Share Posted July 7, 2014 BoC's balance of opinion on future sales to rise to 32 in Q2 - TD Securities Annette Beacher, Head of Asia-Pacific Research at TD Securities believes that Bank of Canada's, due out later today, will offer a forecast on future sales suggesting a rise to +32 from +27. Key quotes "We expect the balance of opinion on future sales to rise to +32 from +27although the focus will be on the evolution of inflation expectations and the potential implications for the July 16 BoC Fixed Announcement Date." "Inflation expectations are poised to move higher due to the acceleration in core CPI through the second quarter." "June Ivey PMI (TDS: +53, market: +52.0) and building permits (market: +2.0% m/m) will take a backseat to the BOS." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 07, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 7, 2014 Author Share Posted July 7, 2014 EUR/USD regains 1.3600 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The single currency managed to bounce off session lows in sub-1.3580 levels and is now pushing the EUR/USD to retake the key 1.3600 handle. EUR/USD propped up by EMU data Spot found much needed oxygen after the investor’s confidence tracked by the Sentix index in the euro area surprised markets to the upside for the month of July, advancing to 10.1 vs. 7.5 expected and up from June’s 8.5. At the moment the pair is partially trimming losses from recent peaks near 1.3700 the figure, intensified after the better Payrolls numbers. “EUR is unwinding from oversold conditions and further sustained down-move is unlikely. Allow for a test of 1.3570 before a recovery towards 1.3600 can be expected”, observed Quek Ser Leang, Market Strategist at UOB Group. EUR/USD levels to watch As of writing the pair is up 0.02% at 1.3598 with the next resistance at 1.3611 (high Jul.4) followed by 1.3664 (high Jul.3) and finally 1.3677 (200-d MA). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.3576 (low Jun.26) would open the door to 1.3574 (low Jun.23) and then 1.3565 (low Jun.20). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 07, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 7, 2014 Author Share Posted July 7, 2014 BoE in the limelight this week - Investec FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec, underlines the relevance of the MPC meeting ahead in the week. Key Quotes "Very little out on the data front today so it’s likely the market will continue to be driven by the result of Thursday’s impressive payroll figures. However, the main event of the week will be when the Monetary Policy Committee makes its July announcement at midday on Thursday." "This will be the first MPC meeting since Mark Carney’s Mansion House speech, when the BoE Governor warned that interest rates could rise sooner than markets were expecting. However the motivation behind the statement is likely to have been to warn markets of a general trend, not an imminent event". "Accordingly policy looks set to be held steady again for now, with the Bank rate on hold at 0.5% and the stock of asset purchases at £375bn." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 07, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 7, 2014 Author Share Posted July 7, 2014 Dijsselbloem urges Greece to step up work on its bailout program FXStreet (Łódź) - Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem urged Greece today at the monthly meeting of Eurozone Finance Ministers in Brussels to make more efforts to meet the bailout program requirements. Dijsselbloem stressed that Eurozone Member States should continue implementing structural reforms, not only promising to do that. The European Commission would assess the reforms' effectiveness, he added. Furthermore, the Eurogroup chief expressed his optimism about the outcome of EU bank stress tests. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 07, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 7, 2014 Author Share Posted July 7, 2014 EUR/USD treading water near 1.3600 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The single currency is looking to consolidate the recent bounce off session lows, taking the EUR/USD back to the vicinity of 1.3600 the figure as markets enter the US session. EUR/USD poised to remain sidelined? With the recent Payrolls numbers still hovering over markets and no relevant releases in both the euro area and the US until Wednesday, where the FOMC minutes are due, expectations for volatility in the pair remain pretty flat. In the view of analysts at Westpac Global Strategy Group, “Multi-month, EUR weakness should be driven by: 1) less supportive flow dynamics as signalled by the region’s shrinking basic balance surplus; and 2) near certain prospects for relatively faster growth in the ECB’s balance sheet vs the Fed, especially later this year as TLRTO comes into play. Draghi’s reference to EUR1 trillion in the latter prevented a break of 1.37 so the sell zone may now be the mid-1.36s”. EUR/USD levels to watch As of writing the pair is retreating 0.01% at 1.3592 and a breakdown of 1.3576 (low Jun.26) would open the door to 1.3574 (low Jun.23) and then 1.3565 (low Jun.20). On the upside, the initial hurdle lines up at 1.3611 (high Jul.4) followed by 1.3664 (high Jul.3) and finally 1.3677 (200-d MA). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 07, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 7, 2014 Author Share Posted July 7, 2014 EUR/USD mixed signals – Scotiabank FXStreet (Guatemala) - Camilla Sutton, CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank noted that the EUR comes with mixed signals. Key Quotes: "EUR/USD short‐term technicals: mixed—EUR buy signals have faded and sell signals are beginning to form”. “We expect EUR to trade within a broad range, loosely defined as 1.35 to 1.37 for the near‐term." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 07, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 7, 2014 Author Share Posted July 7, 2014 EUR/GBP heading for 0.78 region - Rabobank FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank explained that even though recent comments from ECB hawk Weidmann warned about risks to financial stability from keeping monetary policy too loose, he made clear that he was fully on board with the measures announced by the committee last month. “He remarked that “the point is to prevent a phase of inflation that is too low for too long, as this could cripple the economy in the Eurozone””. “Although to date, the dovish sentiments from ECB officials have had limited effect on undermining the value of the EUR, as the market becomes increasingly confident in its assessment of the divergence of the policy outlooks between the ECB and other central banks, a reaction is likely to be played out in the EUR crosses”. “We see scope for EUR/GBP to end the year in the 0.78 region and to continue heading lower into 2015 towards the 0.77 level on a 12 mth view”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 07, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 7, 2014 Author Share Posted July 7, 2014 US stocks decline after holiday FXStreet (Córdoba) - Stocks finished lower in Europe and are falling in Wall Street at the beginning of the week. A decline in german industrial output weight on European stocks. The FTSE 100 lost 0.62% while the Dax fell 1.03%. The worst among European indexed was France’s Cac 40 that dropped 1.41%. Trading resumed in Wall Street after Friday’s holiday. Main indexes are falling as speculation about when the Federal Reserve will move rates increases, particularly ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes. The Dow Jones is losing 0.35%, holding slightly above the 17,000 mark while the Nasdaq losses 0.73% and the S&P 500 drop 0.48%. As US stocks are pulling back from record highs, gold and crude oil are also falling. The yellow metal trades at $1,317/oz, down 0.25% while the barrel is losing 0.60% at $103.40. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 07, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 7, 2014 Author Share Posted July 7, 2014 Impervious to better US data? - WIB FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Westpac Banking Corporation ABN put the question out there of, “Delayed reaction or are financial markets simply impervious to better US data?” Key Quote: “Last week's strong NFP outcome makes it five in a row of 200k+ outcomes, yet US yields and the US$ remain in well rehearsed ranges”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 07, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 7, 2014 Author Share Posted July 7, 2014 BoE and rate outlook for Q2 2015 - Rabobank FXStreet (Guatemala) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank noted that there is already a lot of good news priced into the pound. Key Quotes: “UK data releases from the third quarter of last year have revealed far more momentum behind the UK economic recovery than almost anyone had expected. This has culminated in widespread expectations that the BoE will be the second developed world central bank to hike rates this cycle, after the RBNZ. The latest survey from Reuters reveals that half of respondents now expect the first hike in the initial quarter of next year, with a decent minority looking for a move late this year”. “Only a few weeks ago, the market consensus for the first BoE rate hike stood at Q2 2015, but confidence in this view was rattled by the remarks of BoE Governor Carney at the Mansion House on June 12. Carney commented that he was surprised by the relatively low probability that the market was attaching to the likelihood of a hike in the bank rate this year; the market consensus duly shifted”. “The outlook for BoE rates, however, is not clear cut. As Carney remarked later in June, wage inflation in the UK remains surprising low. This would appear to suggest that there is more spare capacity in the labour market than the aggressive fall in the unemployment rate would suggest”. “Not only is wage inflation still subdued but UK CPI inflation at 1.5% y/y is well below the BoE’s 2.0% target. Disinflation is a common theme across Europe currently and sterling strength will be contributing to downward pressure on UK import prices. For this reason we have left our forecast for the first BoE rate hike of the cycle at Q2 2015, at least for the time being. Not so many months ago, we were more hawkish than the market consensus, now we find ourselves in the dovish camp”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 07, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.