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GBP/USD recovers from 1-month low

 


FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD climbed to fresh daily highs at the beginning of the American session as the greenback lost momentum following a short-lived spike.

 

The GBP/USD managed to recover after hitting a 1-month low of 1.6732 amid broad USD strength and despite solid US data recently released the greenback failed to hold gains. The GBP/USD bounced to a high of 1.6782 and it is currently trading at 1.6775, up 0.07% on the day.

 

GBP/USD technical levels

 

In terms of technical levels, next supports are seen at 1.6722 (50-day SMA) and 1.6700 (psychological level) ahead of 1.6669 (Apr 15 low). On the flip side, resistances could be found at 1.6782 (May 15 high), 1.6800 (psychological level) and 1.6839 (21-day SMA).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 15, 2014

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EMEA EM Express: Hungarian and Polish GDP numbers surprise to the upside in Q1

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Peace talks between Ukrainian and Russian officials initiated by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe on Wednesday, remained in limbo as none of the pro-Russian militants attended the meeting in Kiev. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces continued their operation in the eastern parts of the country, destroying two military bases of the separatists. 

 

On Thursday Polish PM Donald Tusk said that the conflict in Ukraine was more serious than the EU crisis and stressed that it was Moscow who was fueling it, not Kiev. He also called for an increased NATO presence in Eastern Europe. 

 

Anti-government protests have also returned to Turkey, following the death of nearly 300 miners in a mine fire in Soma and the insensitive reaction of various officials including PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In the opinion of the BBH Global Currency Strategy Team however, the situation shouldn't „lead to any short-term developments beyond what we are already seeing, and are unlikely to spark protests of the magnitude of those seen last year.   

 

Economic data

 

Today's string of preliminary GDP releases for the first quarter of the year kicked off in the European morning with the Czech Republic revealing that on a quarterly basis it had stagnated in Q1, after growing 1.9% in Q4, but still beating expectations of a 0.2% drop.

 

On an annual basis Hungary grew 3.5%, up from 2.7% and above expectations of +2.7%. Polish quarterly data was also solid at +3.3%, following a 2.7% increase and beating forecasts of a 3.1% rise.

 

Jacqui Douglas states that the Hungarian numbers were “very surprising” and attributes them to “a strong contribution from the public sector, which also reflected in an extraordinarily strong momentum in job creation.” She warns however that “our models that track GDP through leading indicators already anticipate a visible slowdown in Q2, which could make the current strength in economic activity not sustainable.”

 

As for the Polish GDP data, Jacqui Douglas notes that similarly as in the case of Hungary, “the strong print does not reflect just base effects,” and that in fact “sequential GDP expanded by a sound 1.1%.”

 

Also on Thursday Poland released Current Account and Net Inflation data. The current account defict shifted to a €517M surplus in March from a €-572M deficit in February, against consensus of narrowing to €-205M. Meanwhile, April Net Inflation slowed down to 0.8% from 1.1% seen in March. 

 

Turkey informed that the Quarterly 3-month Jobless Average climbed slightly to 10.2% in February, from 10.1% in January and against projections of remaining unchanged. The Turkish budget deficit narrowed to TRY -2.7B in April from TRY -5.1B in March. 

 

Technicals

 

Following the release of Hungary's GDP numbers EUR/HUF fell sharply bu almost 0.5%, “suggesting that the NBH will have more leeway to ease rates at the next meeting,” in the opinion of Jacqui Douglas. The analyst also points out that “differently from the HUF, however, the PLN reaction was less strong, as zloty appreciation pre-empted the official release having moved in sympathy with the forint over the previous hour.”

 

Still, the zloty strengthened against the euro the most since March 27 on Wednesday. Yields on 10-year government bonds dropped by 8bp to an 11-month low of 3.66%. USD/PLN was up 0.19% at 3.0600 at the moment of writing. 

 

USD/HUF was rising 0.37% at 222.0700. Yields on government bonds decreased by 14bps to 4.83%, the lowest since 1999.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 15, 2014

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USD/JPY extends decline below 101.50

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY dropped further and fell to 101.29, reaching the lowest price since March 19. Currently trades at 101.50, after bouncing slightly from the lows, down 0.38% for the day so far. 

 

The US dollar is falling for the second day in a row against the Yen and could post the lowest daily close in two months. The Japanese currency is the best performer as stocks in Wall Street plummet and US government bonds rise. 

 

USD/JPY Eyeing key support 

 

Today’s decline pushed the USD/JPY toward the 101.10 - 101.30 area where March and April lows lies. The mentioned area has become an important support in the last months and a consolidation below could signal a potential continuation toward 100.00.

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 15, 2014

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GBP/USD looks to extend above 1.6800

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling is now pushing higher on Friday, lifting the GBP/USD to test intraday highs near 1.6820.

 

GBP/USD rebounds from 1.6790

 

It seems the buying interest returned around the sterling during the European afternoon, with spot now looking to break above the overnight’s congestion pattern and extend the advance beyond 1.6800 the figure. “The strong performance of the UK economy, related market belief that the BoE could move on rates ahead of its own (Inflation Report) expectations, and (for now) diminished political risk as the government’s poll standings improve, justifies a firmer track for GBP that extends beyond the next two quarters”, observed the Currency Research team at BNZ.

 

GBP/USD levels to consider

 

As of writing the pair is up 0.13% at 1.6813 with the next resistance at 1.6840 (21-d MA). On the downside, a break below 1.6727 (23.6% of 1.5854-1.6997) would expose 1.6721 (low Apr.16) and then 1.6700 (psychological level).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 16, 2014

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USD/JPY pops after solid US housing data

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY received a mild boost and printed a marginal new high for the day after better-than-expected US housing data.

 

US housing starts grew 13.2% in April to 1072 K vs. 980K expected, while building permits rose to 1080K vs 1010K expected. The USD/JPY climbed nearly 20 pips on the data and hit a daily high of 101.66 although the movement lacked momentum as investors remain pretty much sidelined ahead of the weekend.

 

USD/JPY technical levels

 

At time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at the 101.55 area, little changed on the day but headed for its second weekly loss in a row. As for technical levels, the pair could find next supports at 101.30 (May 15 low), 101.10 (200-day SMA) and 100.75 (Feb 5 low). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 101.66 (May 16 high), 101.85 (10-day SMA) and 102.10 (May 15 high).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 16, 2014

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USD/CAD remains capped by 1.0900

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD remained little changed near daily highs after the latest string of US data showed housing starts rose more than expected in April.

 

On the macroeconomic domain, data showed foreign investment in Canadian securities unexpectedly dropped in March, while US housing starts grew 13.2% in April to 1072 K vs. 980K expected. However, the USD/CAD was barely affected, and trades nearly flat at the 1.0880 zone. However, the USD/CAD is on track to post its third weekly loss in a row.

 

USD/CAD technical levels

 

In terms of technical levels, the USD/CAD could find immediate resistances at 1.0890 (May 15 high), 1.0925 (May 13 high) and 1.0950 (21-day SMA). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.0850 (May 16 low), 1.0813 (May 13 low) and 1.0800 (psychological level).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 16, 2014

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EUR/USD around 1.33 in 12-month – J.P.Morgan Private Bank

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Sara Yates, Global Head of FX Strategy at J,P.Morgan Private Bank, keeps the target at 1.33 for the EUR/USD in a 12-month horizon.

 

Key Quotes

 

“In our opinion, EURUSD is unlikely to fall much below 1.35 unless the ECB does something to aggressively reverse its shrinking balance sheet and/or US 10y yields break above 3%”.

 

“We think there is some possibility that the ECB announces its intention to stops its drain of liquidity created by the Securities Market Programme (SMP) at the June meeting. However, we believe this would slow the speed at which the ECB’s balance sheet shrinks rather than increase it”.

 

“We think there remains too much political resistance to launch a quantitative easing programme (which would dramatically increase the size of the balance sheet) and that US yields are unlikely to move substantially higher until Q4 2014”.

 

“We continue to forecast EURUSD at 1.33 in 1 year”.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 19, 2014

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UK housing sector, a challenge for the BoE? - Investec

 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec, notes the BoE will be closely watching the developments in the housing sector.

 

Key Quotes

 

"The big story over the weekend was Pfizer’s renewed £69bn bid for AstraZeneca which would create the world’s largest pharmaceutical company if it goes ahead. It remains to be seen how many overtures the UK giant can resist from its American rival and as it stands, the FX markets are yet to factor in a takeover that seems increasingly likely as GBPUSD opened where we left it on Friday."

 

 

"In other UK news, the rapid growth of the housing market is some cause for concern for market commentators who await to see how the Bank of England will look to take the steam out of the housing sector. BoE Governor Mark Carney, speaking to Sky news over the weekend, talked of ‘deep, deep’ structural problems in the sector and his concern that the BoE itself couldn’t build more houses. He again indicated the BoE would do what it could from its end, via the Financial Policy Committee, with adjustments to lending standards and loan limits on income mentioned."

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 19, 2014

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EUR/USD back from highs

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After hitting fresh intraday highs beyond 1.3730, the EUR/USD is now deflating to the 1.3720/15 area on Monday.

 

EUR/USD keeps the bid tone

 

Despite a choppy session, spot is managing well to keep the trade above the 1.3700 handle, although it lacks conviction to climb further. Nothing of note in the data universe, with Construction Output in the bloc contracting 0.6% inter-month in March and the Spanish trade deficit widening to €2.05 billion in April. “The broader shape of recent price moves suggests to us that an important top/reversal is unfolding in EURUSD around the 1.40 zone as the rising wedge-like shape to the pattern of trade over the past year implies a rally that is losing momentum”, assessed Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategy at TD Securities.

 

EUR/USD relevant levels

 

At the moment the pair is up 0.16% at 1.3716 with the next resistance at 1.3732 (high May 15) followed by 1.3739 (100-d MA) and then 1.3771 (high May 13). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.3685 (low May 16) would target 1.3648 (low May 15) and finally 1.3643 (low Feb.27).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 19, 2014

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GBP/USD tailing off and pressing 1.6820

 

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - GBP/USD is meeting offers in 1.6840 with non committed bulls backing away at the start of the week. With there being little from the calendar today, beyond the housing market chatter, we will be entertaining a busier time of things starting tomorrow. The UK CPI (tomorrow) and BoE minutes (Wednesday) are coming up. 

 

UK CPI and BoE minutes

 

RBS strategist, Ross Walker, is a little ahead of the consensus on CPI, “With disinflation the focus globally, currencies have become very sensitive to even small misses on inflation. The May MPC Minutes are expected to reveal unanimous policy votes for unchanged policy and only marginal erosion of the fairly high degree of consensus within the Committee. The main interest will centre on any signs that the fairly high degree of consensus on the Committee since the launch of explicit forward guidance is beginning to diminish”. The RBS analysts said they expect GBP to trade “softly” this week.

 

GBP/USD Levels

 

Spot is presently trading at 1.6819, and next resistance can be seen at 1.6822 (Hourly 20 EMA), 1.6826 (Daily 20 SMA), 1.6840 (Daily Classic R1), 1.6843 (Yesterday's High) and 1.6847 (Daily High). Next support to the downside can be found at 1.6815 (Weekly Classic PP), 1.6815 (Daily Open), 1.6812 (Daily Classic PP), 1.6805 (Daily Low) and 1.6805 (Hourly 100 SMA). 

 

GBP/USD Levels

 

Regarding candlestick formations, we can see Hammer formation on the 1-hour.

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 19, 2014

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ECB's Liikanen: Asset purchase program could be implemented if deflation risks rise

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - ECB Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen said on Tuesday that, should the need arise, the central bank could implement various easing measures at the upcoming meeting, such as a broad-based asset-purchases of securities.

 

Moreover, forward guidance could be strengthened in response to an increase in the deflation risk, Liikanen suggested. In case money markets rise, the possible countermeasures include finalizing SMP sterilization, adjusting the rate corridor, reducing rates or carrying out long-term lending operations.

 

Conducting lending operations or bypassing banks in funding would be appropriate in case of a considerable reduction in bank lending, the ECB policymaker added.

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 20, 2014

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Latin America EM Express: Brazilian real drops on geopolitical tensions

 

 

 

 


FXStreet (Łódź) - Geopolitical tensions stemming from the continuing Russian-Ukrainian conflict as well as the declaration of martial law in Thailand on Monday, weighed on emerging market currencies including the Brazilian real which fell on Tuesday by 0.4% to 2.2164 against the dollar early in Sao Paulo. 

 

Economic data

 

Argentinian Unemployment rate disappointed on Monday, rising on a quarterly basis to 7.1% in Q1, from 6.4% in Q4 and considerably above forecasts of an increase to 6.7%.

 

Chilean annual GDP data on the other hand was positive, showing 2.6% growth in Q1, down from 2.7% recorded in Q4 but above expectations of +2.4%. 

 

According to the BBVA Bancomer team of analysts: “Recent data validate both our GDP growth expectation for 2014 (at 3.4%) and our assessment of the necessity of further monetary stimulus during this year (policy rate at 3.25% in eop), although this will remain data dependent, particularly over CPI inflation figures.”

 

Technicals

 

At the moment of writing USD/BRL was up 0.02% at 2.2155.

 

On Monday the USD/BRL daily FXStreet Trend Index was strongly bearish, with the OB/OS Index oversold. RSI was at 41 at the last close, and has climbed to 51 so far today. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was shrinking at 98 pips, with ATR (14) shrinking at 191 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 2.3024, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 35.1975.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 20, 2014

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GBP/USD keeps the bid tone near 1.6850

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The buying interest remains intact around the sterling on Tuesday, with the GBP/USD meandering around the 1.6845/50 region.

 

GBP/USD capped by 1.6870

 

Spot found decent support around the 1.6800 handle, although it could not follow through the area of 1.6870 after UK consumer prices surprised investors to the upside in April. In the meantime, the pair is trading well above the 1.6800 barrier ahead of tomorrow’s BoE minutes. Senior FX Strategist at RBS Paul Robson commented, “Last week we highlighted the shooting star candle and said the risk was for a test into the 1.6775/1.6820 support area (previous resistance), and maybe at a push we might see 1.65/1.66 at some stage”.

 

GBP/USD levels to watch

 

As of writing the pair is up 0.18% at 1.6843 with the next resistance at 1.6875 (high May 14) followed by 1.6883 (high May 13) and then 1.6903 (high May 12). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.6802 (low May 20) would target 1.6784 (low May 16) en route to 1.6732 (low May 15).

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 20, 2014

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USD/CHF hovering around 0.8920

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CHF peaked during the European session at 0.8937, reaching the highest price since last Thursday but then lost momentum and pulled. After Wall Street opening bottomed at 0.8913 but then bounced slightly to the upside. 

 

Currently trades at 0.8920, around the same price it closed yesterday. The USD/CHF remains steady moving in a small trading range between daily lows and under 0.8925. 

 

USD/CHF levels 

 

To the upside, short term resistance might lie at 0.8925 (intraday level), 0.8935/45 (daily high) and 0.8960. To the downside support could be located at 0.8910/15 (daily low) followed by 0.8900 and 0.8880.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 20, 2014

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USD/CHF jumps to nearly 1-week highs at 0.8955

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The USD/CHF is trading higher on Wednesday as the pair is joining its negative correlation with the EUR/USD that is testing key 1.3650 level.

 

After jumping around 60 pips in the day from 0.8895, the USD/CHF is pricing at its highest level since May 15 at 0.8955. Currently, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8946, up 0.29% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8956 and low at 0.8897.

 

The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting overbought hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish. 

 

USD/CHF levels

 

According to Matt Bacon-Hall, FXBeat Editor, the important levels to follow in the USD/CHF are 0.8950 (I would expect offers 0.8945-50 playing just ahead of the prior high...also check the hourly time frame… there is a corrective structure unfolding which terminates at 0.8950) and 0.8958 (High of A=C....naturally I would expect covering above here).

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 21, 2014

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USD/JPY turns intraday positive

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY is staging a strong comeback, having turned intraday positive, supported by higher US yields.

 

The USD/JPY has risen more than 70 pips over the last hours, recovering from a 3-month low of 100.82 scored on the back of Kuroda comments as the BoJ Governor sounded pretty optimistic in its post-meeting presser. He said positive cycle in the economy is working and the QE is having the intended effect.

 

However, the yen lost momentum and surrendered gains across the board. At time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at the 101.50 area, up 0.2% on the day, having hit a peak of 101.55 in recent dealings. 

 

USD/JPY technical levels

 

In terms of technical levels, the USD/JPY could find next supports at 100.7 (2014 low Feb 4), 100.62 (50% retracement of 95.80/105.45) and not much till 100.00. On the flip side, resistances are seen at 101.55 (10-day SMA) and 101.66 (May 16 high).

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 21, 2014

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