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EUR/JPY breaks below 141.00 and falls to 3-week lows

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/JPY is falling sharply on Thursday as the Euro remains weak in the market. Recently the pair broke below 140.80 (previous lows) and tumbled to 140.59 hitting the lowest price since April 15. 

 

At the moment trades at 140.63, down 0.79% for the day so far. The euro is having the worst day in a month against the Yen and is headed toward the lowest daily close since April 8. 

 

EUR/JPY breaking range 

 

Since mid April the pair has been moving sideways around 141.50, with moves limited between 142.40 and 141.00. But today price is breaking decisively to the downside, pointing out to further weakness.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 08, 2014

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EUR/USD stabilizing around 1.3850

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The intraday decline of the EUR/USD seems to have halted around the 1.3855/50 region at the end of the US session on Thursday.

 

EUR/USD hurt by Draghi

 

A more than expected dovish tone in today’s press conference by President Draghi dragged spot from fresh ytd highs near the psychological barrier at 1.4000 to current weekly lows in the mid-1.3800s. The EUR reacted adversely after Draghi favoured some form of monetary easing in the central bank’s next meeting (June). “In the context of his repeated mentioning of the exchange rate, we now believe the ECB will cut its refi rate by 15bp June, to be accompanied by a 15-45bp cut in the marginal lending rate and by several other measures to strengthen the effectiveness of this rate cut”, commented Elwin de Groot, Senior Eurozone Strategist at Rabobank.

 

EUR/USD levels to watch

 

At the moment the pair is down 0.37% at 1.3857 and a breakdown of 1.3847 (21-d MA) would open the door to 1.3812 (low May 2) and then 1.3796 (daily cloud top). On the upside, the initial hurdle aligns at 1.3995 (2014 high May 8) ahead of 1.4000 (psychological level) and then 1.4100 (psychological level).

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 08, 2014

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AUD/USD's recovery capped at 0.9375

 

 

 

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Aussie's recovery from 0.9345 against the US Dollar found buying interest at 0.9375 level where the pair was rejected to the downside and now it is trading at 0.9355. 

 

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.9361, down 0.14% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.9381 and low at 0.9347. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish. 

 

AUD/USD levels

 

Next support to the downside can be found at 0.9347 (Daily Low), 0.9338 (Hourly 100 SMA), 0.9330 (Weekly Classic R1), 0.9329 (Daily Classic S1) and 0.9318 (Yesterday's Low). 

 

Resistances are at 0.9363 (Daily Classic PP), 0.9366 (Hourly 20 EMA), 0.9375 (Daily Open), 0.9375 (Weekly High) and 0.9381 (Daily High).

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 09, 2014

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GBP/USD hits fresh 1-week low

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD is stretching to fresh lows at the beginning of the American session after the release of the UK GDP estimation by NIESR.

 

The GBP/USD came under strong pressure and triggered stops below 1.6900, accelerating to a 1-week low of 1.6831. With the data barely affecting the pair, the Cable is currently trading at 1.6840, 0.53% below its opening price.

 

The UK GDP Estimate released by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research on Friday showed that 1% growth in the three months to April, following a 0.9% increase in the three months to March.

 

GBP/USD technical outlook

 

“In the 4 hours chart readings are strongly bearish, with a break below 1.6840 supporting a downward continuation towards 1.6770 price zone”, says Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. ·A recovery above 1.6890 on the other hand should bring some relief on Pound, and see the pair attempting a recovery towards 1.6920”.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 09, 2014

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NZD/USD resting up on a down week

 

 

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD is trading at 0.8624, down -0.26% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8654 and low at 0.8613.

 

NZD/USD is taking a breather on its decent at these levels with Asia finished for the week and the data behind us, so to speak. Meanwhile, RBS strategists explained that it's worth reiterating how weaker than expected NZ retail sales data provides more reason to think RBNZ won't follow through with a rate rise in June. “Our sell zone on NZD/USD is 0.87-0.90 for huge multi month declines”. However, the strategists also went onto suggest that strengthening data in the US paired with a still credibly dovish Fed plays positive for carry currencies more broadly.

 

NZD/USD Levels

 

Current price is 0.8625, with resistance ahead at 0.8626 (Daily 20 SMA), 0.8640 (Hourly 20 EMA), 0.8641 (Hourly 200 SMA), 0.8646 (Daily Open) and 0.8647 (Weekly Low). Next support to the downside can be found at 0.8625 (Yesterday's Low), 0.8624 (Daily Classic S1), 0.8613 (Daily Low), 0.8612 (Weekly Classic PP) and 0.8600 (Daily Classic S2). 

 

NZD chart formations

 

Looking at price patterns, we can see a Doji 1-hour candlestick formation.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 09, 2014

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Yen weakness will be slightly delayed, but it is coming - Commerzbank

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Esther Reichelt, analyst at Commerzbank notes that absence of further BoJ measures suggests USD/JPY will remain at current levels longer than previously expected, although in the medium term many factors point towards a notably weaker yen.

 

Key Quotes

 

“At present the Bank of Japan sees no need for further action. As a result USD/JPY will remain at current levels longer than we had previously expected”. 

 

“However, medium term many factors still point towards a notably weaker yen, as the BoJ will step up its measures in the autumn if it looks as if the inflation target will be missed”. 

 

“Moreover market attention might begin focussing again on another issue on Monday: the stubborn current account deficit. This too will put medium term pressure on the yen”.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 09, 2014

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USD/CHF at 1-month highs above 0.8850

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CHF recently rose to 0.8863 reaching the highest price since April 8 and extended weekly gains and currently is holding above 0.8850. The US dollar is rising further against European currencies after Wall Street opening, while the Swiss Franc is among the worst performers across the board. 

 

USD/CHF best week since March

 

The pair is about the end the week with a gain of a hundred pips, the best weekly result since March. All gains were achieved after Draghi’s press conference on Thursday that boosted the US dollar versus the Euro and the Swissy. 

 

On Thursday the pair approached 2014 lows but then bounced sharply to the upside. Despite the gains the weekly chart still looks bearish but price has approached a downtrend line originated 10 months ago.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 09, 2014

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EUR/USD buyers left the building!

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The weakness remains intact around the EUR at the end of the week, currently dragging the EUR/USD to fresh 1-month lows near 1.3750.

 

EUR/USD bearish now?


The pair extends its deep pullback from recent ytd tops near 1.4000 the figure, against the backdrop of mounting selling pressure post-ECB meeting. Spot still remains under the sedative effects of Draghi’s presser on Thursday, where he opened the door to further easing in the next meeting in June. “There is strong reason to suspect that ECB action will not have the power to trigger a sustained or sharp downside move in EUR/USD even if policy is adjusted next month. As long as dollar sentiment is weak we expect EUR/USD to remain well supported. We maintain a forecast of EUR/USD1.39 on a 1 month view and while we expect that the USD will win back some ground medium time, we have adjusted higher our 12 mth forecast from EUR/USD1.28 to 1.30”, commented Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank.

 

EUR/USD levels to consider

 

The pair is now losing 0.52% at 1.3767 with the immediate support at 1.3740 (100-d MA) ahead of 1.3738 (low Apr.8) and finally 1.3722 (daily cloud base). On the upside, a break above 1.3844 (high May 9) would target 1.3900 (psychological level) and then 1.3997 (2014 highs May 8).

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 09, 2014

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USD/CAD hits 1-week high

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD resumed the upside Tuesday, advancing to a fresh 1-week high during the European session as traders await the BoC quarterly review. 

 

The USD/CAD has gathered momentum and is back headed north following a consolidation phase below 1.0900 after the spike that followed disappointing Canadian employment data last Friday. The pair stretched to a high of 1.0922 and it is currently trading at 1.0915, recording a 0.19% gain on the day.

 

US retail sales and the BoC quarterly report are on today's docket.

 

USD/CAD levels to watch

 

In terms of technical levels, if the USD/CAD breaks above recent highs, it could find next resistances at 1.0960 (May 6 high) and 1.0989 (100-day SMA). On the flip side, supports are seen at 1.0890 (May 13 low), 1.0873 (May 12 low) and 1.0813 (May 8 low).

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 13, 2014

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EUR/JPY recovery falters after ZEW data

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The recovery of the EUR/JPY faltered a few pips shy of the 141.00 mark as disappointing ZEW survey figures from the EZ and Germany put the shared currency back under pressure.

 

The German ZEW sentiment survey showed the indicator for economic expectations fell to 33.1 from 43.2 in April. In the Eurozone as a whole, the index fell to 55.2 from 61.2 the previous month. The euro weakened across the board following the figures, with EUR/JPY dropping more than half a cent to a fresh daily low of 140.25. 

 

Having erased completely intraday gains, the EUR/JPY is currently trading at the 140.30 zone, recording a 0.34% loss on the day.

 

EUR/JPY levels to watch

 

In terms of technical levels,the pair could find next supports at 140.03 (May 12 low) and 139.87 (May 9 low), while on the other hand resistances are seen at 140.93 (May 13 high), 141.00 (psychological level) and 141.19 (100-day SMA).

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 13, 2014

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EUR/USD remains offered - Investec

 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec, remarks the weakness surrounding the euro.


Key Quotes

 

"Comments from ECB's Constancio and Nowotny were the highlight of a very quiet start to the week yesterday. Both took a small step back from Draghi's comments on Thursday, saying it is too early to speculate on June action from the ECB."

 

"This puts greater emphasis on the data coming out of Europe later this month, although as Draghi stated during the press conference a key influence on their policy decision will be the ECB staff forecasts and bank lending data due in June. A final point worth noting is that Nowotny also hinted that a package of measures could be considered, with his own view being that a rate cut on its own would be insufficient."

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 13, 2014

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Session Recap: Euro weighed by soft ZEW and Buba' story

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The euro weakened during the European session and fell to fresh lows versus the dollar and the yen following the release of disappointing ZEW data from Germany and the Eurozone. Meanwhile, a media report suggesting the German Bundesbank may be willing to back stimulus measures from the ECB triggered a stronger selloff.

 

The EUR/USD drop also put the pound and the franc under pressure against the dollar. Elsewhere, the yen and commodity currencies remain little changed as investors await US retail sales data for April.

 

The EUR/USD broke through Friday’s lows and printed a fresh 5-week trough of 1.3709, while the GBP/USD hit a 10-day low of 1.6824. Meanwhile the USD/CHF rose above 0.8900 and posted its highest in over a month at 0.8902.

 

Main Headlines in Europe:

 

Asia EM Express: India awaits election result, Chinese data confirms slowdown

 

What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? Commerzbank and Scotiabank

 

European Monetary Union ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment missed forecasts (63.5) in May: Actual (55.2)

 

Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment missed forecasts (41) in May: Actual (33.1)

 

New Australian budget favors business

 

Bundesbank source: Bundesbank open to significant ECB stimulus in June if 2016 inflation forecasts lowered - Dow Jones

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 13, 2014

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EUR/USD locked in consolidation

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD continues to consolidate in a tight range Wednesday, having stabilized after previous date selloff.

 

The EUR/USD has spent most of the day in a 20-pip range above 1.3700 as investors remain sidelined as they await someone to shed more light on the ECB future action. On Tuesday, media cited unnamed sources stating even the Bundesbank will back ECB easing measures if needed putting Buba’s Head Jens Weidmann’s speech (scheduled at 14:30GMT) in the spotlight.

 

However, the EUR/USD managed to halt the decline at 1.3688 and is enjoying a quieter phase today. At time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.3707, virtually unchanged since opening.

 

EUR/USD technical outlook

 

Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet notes that the EUR/USD holds a quite neutral technical tone in short-term charts, and commented that as long as it remains below 1.3745 the downside is exposed “with a break below 1.3690 favoring a downward continuation towards 1.3640/6”.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 14, 2014

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EMEA EM Express: Polish zloty advances as inflation hits 10-month low; Peace talks begin in Kiev

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Peace talks between Ukrainian and Russian officials, with the participation of Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe representatives, have begun on Wednesday in Kiev. On Tuesday Ukraine had suffered the haveiest losses of its troops so far, as pro-Russian militants killed seven of them in an ambush. 

 

Earlier on Wednesday Sergei Naryshkin, the speaker of the lower house of the Russian parliament, said that the president elected in the Ukrainian vote scheduled for 25 May would not be legitimate, as long as there is no dialogue with the pro-Russian separatists in the eastern regions of the country. 

 

As the RBS economists note, despite the fact that the situation in Ukraine is drifting towards civil war, „the market appears to be taking a view that the economic fallout from this conflict and potential sanctions will be contained.” The Russian ruble reached its strongest level since February on Tuesday, while the RTS Russian stock index gained 1.6% since February.

 

"Russia is planning its first government RUB bond auction tomorrow in more than a month, a sign of investor confidence returning,” the analysts add. "The EUR is modestly weaker and it may be moving somewhat counter to the RUB, reflecting capital returning to RUB after recent flight.”

 

Economic data

 

Polish inflation remained flat month-on-month in April, after rising 0.1% in March, the Central Statistical Office informed on Wednesday. Market consensus pointed to a 0.3% rise. 

 

On an annual basis CPI growth slowed down to a 10-month low of 0.3% from 0.7% and below expectations of 0.6%. The lower than expected reading was brought about by “the disinflationary trend in the rest of Europe and yesterday’s downside surprise in Hungary (albeit very specific to local drivers in the country),” in the opinion of Jacqui Douglas, Senior Global Strategist at TD Securities. 

 

The Polish M3 Money Supply annual numbers came in at 5.4% in April, up from 5.1% in March and above forecasts of 5.2%.

 

Earlier on Wednesday South Africa published annual Retail Sales for March, which increased by 1%, down from 2.3% in February, a notch below expectations.

 

Furthermore, the South African Business Confidence Index slid to 92.6 in April from 92.7 in March, the South African Chamber of Commerce & Industry said.

 

Technicals

 

Following the release of Polish inflation numbers, the zloty strengthened to 4.1856 against the euro. USD/PLN was up 0.08% at 3.0551. 

 

On Tuesday the USD/PLN daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bullish, with the OB/OS Index overbought. RSI was at 61 at the last close, and has climbed to 65 so far today. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was shrinking at 95 pips, with ATR (14) expanding at 180 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 3.0790, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 3.0315.

 

USD/RUB was down 0.45% at 34.7139 at the moment of writing.

 

On Tuesday the USD/RUB daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was at 36 at the last close, and so far it climbed to 49. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was expanding at 3362 pips, with ATR (14) expanding at 3489 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 33.8589, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 35.4410.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 14, 2014

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GBP/JPY falls to 1-month lows below 171.00

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/JPY is falling sharply on Wednesday and recently bottomed at 170.61, the lowest price since April 15. Afterwards bounced slightly but it was unable to rise above 171.00. 

 

The Pound is among the worst performers across the board weakened after the release of the quarterly inflation report from the Bank of England and M. Carney press conference. On the other side, the Yen is having the best day of the week as Treasuries rise pushing US long term bond yields to 2014 lows. 


GBP/JPY levels to watch

 

The pair is breaking an important support and finally moving away from 172.00. To the downside, below 170.60, the next support might be located at 170.00 and then 169.30/40 (April lows).

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 14, 2014

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AUD/USD slips to 0.9370

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The AUD is now giving away part of the recent gains, dragging the AUD/USD back to the 0.9370/65 area.

 

AUD/USD deflates from 0.9410

 

After reaching 4-week highs in the boundaries of 0.9410, spot failed to sustain the bull run and is now deflating to the 0.9370 region. Next of relevance in the Australian docket will be April’s Consumer Inflation Expectations due tomorrow (2.4% prev.), ahead of the RBA minutes on Tuesday. “The market is now pricing in just a 16% chance of an interest rate hike in the next 12 months. We hold a Q22014 target of 0.93 and a year-end target of 0.92”, signalled Camilla Sutton, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank.

 

AUD/USD key levels

 

As of writing the pair is up 0.21% at 0.9378 with the next resistance at 0.9427 (high Apr.11) ahead of 0.9461 (high Apr.10) and then 0.9500 (psychological level). On the flip side, a breakdown of 0.9227 (low Apr.29) would open the door to 0.9225 (low Apr.4) and finally 0.9184 (50-d MA).

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 14, 2014

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EUR/USD another attempt to 1.3720

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Resilience seems to be the name of the game for the euro so far, with the EUR/USD treading water around the upper band of today’s range at 1.3715/20 so far.

 

EUR/USD well supported by 1.3700

 

Nothing of note in the euro area, as German consumer prices and industrial production in the euro bloc both matched consensus. In another tone, Buba’s J.Weidmann poured some cold water over recent comments regarding the implementation of easing measures in the euro area, stating that any new measure should be thoroughly studied and that nothing is decided yet. In the opinion of Tim Riddell, Head of Global Markets Research at ANZ, “last week’s price action has materially damaged the uptrend and raised the opposing potential that a top may have developed at 1.3995 and that EUR may now be poised for retrenchments back to 1.3520 (38.2%) if not 1.3375 (50%)”.

 

EUR/USD levels to consider

 

As of writing the pair is advancing 0.08% at 1.3714 with the next resistance at 1.3722 (daily cloud base) followed by 1.3741 (100-d MA) and finally 1.3771 (high May 13). On the downside, a break below 1.3689 (low May 13) would open the door to 1.3672 (low Apr.4) and then 1.3643 (low Feb.27).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 14, 2014

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EUR/USD little changed on US data

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency kept the composure after a set of positive results from the US docket on Thursday, with the EUR/USD clinging to the 1.3650 region.

 

EUR/USD supported near 1.3650… for now

 

The pair is now attempting to stabilize the ongoing decline in the mid-1.3600s region so far, after US Claims dropped below 300K for the first time since 2007 and the Empire State index jumped to 19.01 in May from April’s 1.29. Further data showed acceleration in the consumer prices gauged by the Core CPI, rising 1.8% YoY vs. 1.7% previous and headline CPI is back to 2% (last time was July 2013). “Expect initial resistance into 1.3725 while any failure to reclaim 1.3750 may confine the pair lower subsequently. Meanwhile, the 1.3690/00 region may support on initial dips”, suggested Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank.

 

EUR/USD levels to watch

 

As of writing the pair is losing 0.36% at 1.3665 facing the next support at 1.3643 (low Feb.27) followed by 1.3625 (50% of 1.3477-1.3773) and finally 1.3585 (low Feb.13). On the upside, a break above 1.3723 (high May 15) would target 1.3731 (high May 15) en route to 1.3741 (100-d MA).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

May 15, 2014

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