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EUR/USD jumps to daily highs

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD gathered pace and managed to extend its recovery during the New York session, reaching fresh daily highs as the greenback weakens across the board.

 

The EUR/USD spiked to a high of 1.3832 as the dollar falls and stocks turn lower in Wall Street amid deteriorating market sentiment. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 1.3825 a few pips above its opening price. 

 

EUR/USD technical levels

 

In terms of technical levels, immediate resistances could be found at 1.3832 (Apr 15 high), 1.3862 (Apr 14 high) and 1.3882 (Friday's closing price). To the downside, supports are seen at 1.3794 (20-day SMA), 1.3768 (50-day SMA) and 1.3736 (Apr 8 low).

 

 

 


 

 

Apr 15, 2014

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USD/JPY rallies on declining yen safety demand

 

 

FXStreet (London) - USD/JPY has rallied through the session so far after data released overnight indicated that the Chinese economy slowed less than consensus expectations in the first quarter. The slower than expected deceleration in Chinese growth damped demand for yen safety.

 

Official Chinese GDP data released overnight showed that growth had fallen to an 18-month low of 7.4 percent year-on-year in the first quarter. The 1.4 percent quarter-on-quarter growth represents the lowest level since the third quarter of 2010. Despite the weak numbers, Chinese growth held above consensus expectations of a slow down to 7.3 percent year-on-year.

 

Japanese stimulus chatter

 

In addition, against the recent yen strength as well as declining equity markets, speculation has mounted that the Bank of Japan is preparing to intervene with an expansion of its current stimulus measures to fight deflationary pressures. In testimony before the Japanese parliament, Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda attempted to quash those rumours and played down the longer-term importance of recent stock market declines.

 

Japanese deflation concerns have increased following the implementation of a sales tax hike earlier this month.

 

The next BoJ meeting is on 30 April when the central bank will release its latest long-term economic forecasts.

 

USD/JPY rallies through morning session

 

USD/JPY is currently trading at JPY102.2850. The pair has consolidated between JPY102.18 and JPY102.3800 after steadily rallying through the morning session. The pair has gained 0.45 percent on the opening of JPY101.8515.

 

 

 


 

 

Apr 16, 2014

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USD/JPY rallies on declining yen safety demand

 

 

FXStreet (London) - USD/JPY has rallied through the session so far after data released overnight indicated that the Chinese economy slowed less than consensus expectations in the first quarter. The slower than expected deceleration in Chinese growth damped demand for yen safety.

 

Official Chinese GDP data released overnight showed that growth had fallen to an 18-month low of 7.4 percent year-on-year in the first quarter. The 1.4 percent quarter-on-quarter growth represents the lowest level since the third quarter of 2010. Despite the weak numbers, Chinese growth held above consensus expectations of a slow down to 7.3 percent year-on-year.

 

Japanese stimulus chatter

 

In addition, against the recent yen strength as well as declining equity markets, speculation has mounted that the Bank of Japan is preparing to intervene with an expansion of its current stimulus measures to fight deflationary pressures. In testimony before the Japanese parliament, Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda attempted to quash those rumours and played down the longer-term importance of recent stock market declines.

 

Japanese deflation concerns have increased following the implementation of a sales tax hike earlier this month.

 

The next BoJ meeting is on 30 April when the central bank will release its latest long-term economic forecasts.

 

USD/JPY rallies through morning session

 

USD/JPY is currently trading at JPY102.2850. The pair has consolidated between JPY102.18 and JPY102.3800 after steadily rallying through the morning session. The pair has gained 0.45 percent on the opening of JPY101.8515.

 

 

 


 

 

Apr 16, 2014

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Potential for further GBP strength medium-term - Investec

 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec, sees the possibility of the GBP to keep the firm footing.

 

Key Quotes

 

"The major headline yesterday came on the UK’s unemployment release. The UK unemployment rate ticked under the 7.0% forward guidance threshold to 6.9%, meaning the Bank of England will now alter the focus of their policy stance towards eliminating spare capacity."

 

"To put this into perspective, when Governor Carney assumed the helm last July, the BoE forecasted the unemployment rate to dip below 7% around the start of 2016, although their latest forecasts from February envisaged unemployment at 6.9% in Q1. Unemployment is now closing in on the BoE’s medium term estimate of unemployment of between 6-6.5%, meaning that that measure of slack is closing, although the new forward guidance means the BoE is now considering a range of indicators not just the unemployment rate."

 

"Wage growth was also shown to have strengthened further in another positive sign that the economic recovery remains on track. GBPUSD shot up through 1.6800 and followed through overnight to print a four year high at 1.6837 and confirms the GBPUSD up-trend is still intact."

 

"GBPEUR traded up through 1.2150 back to levels seen in early March before ECB President Draghi disappointed the market with inaction at the monthly policy meeting. With the pound still on a charge, any easing of policy by the ECB next month could likely see GBPEUR print new highs on the year."

 

 

 


 

 

Apr 17, 2014

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NZD/USD falls below 0.8600

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The NZD/USD is falling on Thursday and recently reached a fresh daily low at 0.8577. The Kiwi is among the worst performers so far and remains under pressure across the board. 

 

Yesterday the NZD/USD managed to finished far from the lows and recovered some weekly losses but the upside was short lived and after the Asian session resumed the downside. 

 

NZD/USD testing weekly lows

 

Recent slide found support at the 0.8575/80 area, that also capped the downside yesterday. Spot is currently trading at 0.8589, down -0.38% on the day so far.

 

Below 0.8575 the NZD/USD would be trading at the lowest level since April 4. Next support could be located at 0.8545 (April 2 low) and 0.8510/15 (April 3 low). On the upside, immediate resistance lies at 0.8610 (Asian session low) and above here at 0.8650 (daily high).

 

 

 


 

 

Apr 17, 2014

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AUD/USD pressuring against daily lows

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The Australian dollar is trading on the defensive Thursday, with the AUD/USD having lost nearly half a cent from Asian session highs.

 

The AUD/USD is currently threatening daily lows, weighed by gold and stocks pullback. However, the downside remains contained by the 0.9335 area, with the Aussie having printed a low of 0.9336 so far and could remain that way as stocks begin to recover. 

 

AUD/USD technical levels

 

At time of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at the 0.9340 zone, recording a 0.29% loss on the day, with next supports lining up at 0.9331 (Apr 16 low) and 0.9300 (psychological level) ahead of 0.9286 (20-day SMA). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 0.9389 (Apr 17 high), 0.9423 (Apr 15 high) and 0.9460 (Apr 10 high).

 

 

 


 

 

Apr 17, 2014

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USD/JPY glued to opening levels

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - After reaching a fresh 10-day high during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pulled back and settled around its daily opening levels, where it has spent the last hours.

 

The USD/JPY retreated from a high of 102.56 and entered a consolidative phase amid low volume given that most financial markets remain closed for the Easter weekend. At time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at the 102.38, virtually unchanged since opening.

 

USD/JPY technical levels

 

In terms of technical levels, the USD/JPY could find immediate resistances at 102.56 (Apr 18 high), 102.89 (100-day SMA) and 103.00 (psychological level). On the flip side, supports could be found at 102.34 (Apr 18 low), 102.00(psychological level) and 101.85 (Apr 17 low).

 

 

 


 

 

Apr 18, 2014

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EMEA EM Express: Pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk refuse to vacate occupied buildings

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - The talks between Ukrainian, Russian, EU and US leaders in Geneva, aimed at finding a solution to the Ukraine crisis ended in an agreement that efforts will be made to reach a peaceful settlement. The deal delays the imposition of further sanctions on Russia by the West, but this state of affairs may not last long as pro-Russian separatists have already refused to comply with the agreement. 

 

Under the deal, pro-Russian militants are required to disarm and cease the occupation of government buildings in Ukraine, in exchange for amnesty. Kiev on the other hand is to undertake public consultations on constitutional reform.

 

The success of the agreement has been put into question already on Friday however, as the pro-Russian separatists occupying government buildings in Donetsk refused to vacate them. 

 

“We will lay down our weapons only if the National Guard and other Ukrainian military structures stop attacking us, and if we and our families feel safe,” one of the militants leaders told the Interfax news agency today. 

 

Meanwhile, Ukrainian PM Arseny Yatsenyuk said that the parliament was prepared to approve the amnesty bill for protesters, but that he wouldn't hope for a definite resolution of the crisis. 

 

Many voices were raised asking about the effectiveness of the EU and US response to Russia's aggressiveness and their unwillingness to use force. The BBH Global Currency Strategy Team believe that even though Ukraine and NATO have already responded to Russia's moves, by strengthening forces in the region, no such thing should be expected from the US, which “will not sanction a confrontation with Russia over areas in Europe where it does not have a defense treaty or any strategic interests.”

 

Despite the skepticism about the validity of the agreement on Ukraine, Russian shares rose by 2.2% in Friday, which is the biggest increase in three weeks. 

 

Economic data

 

The only piece of important EMEA data released on Friday was Hungary's Gross Wages, which showed 1.7% growth year-on-year in February, up from the 0.9% rise recorded the previous month. 

 

Technicals

 

The Russian ruble fell against the central bank’s basket of dollars and euros to 41.6574 on Friday, following a 1.4% increase on Thursday. USD/RUB is up 0.25% at 35.5617. 

 

On Thursday the USD/RUB daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, and the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was at 45 at the last close and rose to 51 so far today. The Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was shrinking at 3290 pips, with ATR (14) expanding at 4105 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 33.6023, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 35.7553.

 

 

 


 

 

Apr 18, 2014

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Latin America EM Express: Chile's central bank holds rates steady in April

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Chile's central bank held its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, during which it decided to keep the main interest rate unchanged at 4%, in line with forecasts. The recent pickup in inflation was the main reason for staying on hold.

 

Nevertheless, in the statement released after the decision was announced, the central bank signaled its readiness to reduce rates further: “The board will consider the possibility of making additional cuts to the policy rate in line with the evolution of domestic and external macroeconomic conditions and its implications on the inflationary outlook.”

 

The Banco Central de Chile cut borrowing costs four times over the last six months: from 5% to 4.75% in October, then to 4.5% in November, to 4.25% in February and to 4% in March. Meanwhile, inflation started accelerating above 3%, the the midpoint of the central bank's target, reaching 3.2% in February and then 3.5% in March. 

 

Economic data

 

Brazil released its Unemployment Rate on Thursday, which showed a slide to 5% in March from 5.1% in February, against expectations of a rise to 5.4%. 

 

Brazil's April Mid-month Inflation was also published, revealing a 0.78% increase, up from 0.73% seen previously.

 

Technicals

 

The Chilean peso was at 557.26 against the dollar on Thursday, down 11% since the October rate cut. On Friday it was almost unchanged at 557.35. 

 

USD/BRL was down 0.67% at 2.2370 today. On Thursday the daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI sat at 45 at the last close, and has declined to 40 so far today. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was shrinking at 407 pips, with ATR (14) at 271 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 2.3065, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 2.2540.

 

 

 


 

 

Apr 18, 2014

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USD/CAD prints fresh daily highs

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD rose to fresh daily highs at the beginning of the American session following the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, although it lacked follow-through to stage a steepest rally.

 

The USD/CAD climbed to a peak of 1.1029, surpassing its Friday's high, and it was last at 1.1025, virtually unchanged on the day. On the upside, the 1.1045 area, April top, stands as immediate resistance to clear. 

 

USD/CAD technical perspective

 

"We think USD/CAD has done enough to steady and improve going forward from a medium-term technical point of view and feel that a firm base is developing now below 1.0950. We look for a better bid tone to emerge for funds as North American trade picks up today", said the TD Securities analyst team. "USD-supportive US-Canada spreads in the belly of the curve suggest limited downside and more upside potential (towards 1.13) in the near-term. We think gains through 1.1060/70 will be supportive for the near-to-medium-term outlook for USD/CAD".

 

 

 


 

 

Apr 21, 2014

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GBP/USD breaks below 1.6800 to daily lows

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Sterling is extending losses against the US Dollar as the GBP/USD just broke the 1.6800 in the American opening bell and now it's pricing at daily lows around 1.6790.

 

Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.6793, flat on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.6821 and low at 1.6782.

 

GBP/USD levels

 

If the pair remains below the 1.6800 area, the GBP/USD would face supports at 1.6775, 1.6750 and then 1.6720. On the upside, resistances are at 1.6805, 1.6815 and 1.6840.

 

 

 


 

 

Apr 21, 2014

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AUD/USD emerges to fresh highs

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD gathered momentum and pushed to fresh daily highs early New York session, supported by a positive opening in Wall Street.

 

The AUD/USD rose to a high of 0.9346, but the 100-hour SMA offered resistance forcing the pair to recede a tad. At time of writing, the Aussie is trading at the 0.9340 zone, up 0.15% on the day.

 

AUD/USD technical outlook

 

Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet notes the AUD/USD shows no directional bias in short-term charts but "the pair remains in control of bears after reaching 0.9460 early April, with scope to extend down to 0.9260 strong midterm support".

 

Bednarik sees immediate support levels at 0.9320, 0.9290 and 0.9260, while she places resistance levels at 0.9355, 0.9390 and 0.9445.

 

 

 


 

 

Apr 21, 2014

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USD/JPY treading water around 102.50

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The USD/JPY is now trading in a 102.50-102.60 narrow range, a bit lower than overnight peaks just beyond 102.70.

 

USD/JPY boosted by data

 

A much wider than expected trade deficit in the Japanese economy during March weakened the yen in the very first hours of trading, lifting spot to session highs above 102.70. A risk-friendly context also prompted the pair to escalate to higher levels. Moving forward to tomorrow’s Japanese docket, February’s Leading Economic Index will be the only event of note followed by US Existing Home Sales. “, we do expect the JPY to lose ground against USD, with USDJPY rising to 110 by June-end, mostly on reflection of diverging monetary policy outlooks between the two countries”, noted Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities.

 

USD/JPY significant levels

 

The pair is now up 0.14% at 102.57 with the next hurdle at 102.71 (high Apr.21) ahead of 102.95 (100-d MA) and finally 102.99 (low Apr.7). On the downside, a break below 102.49 (daily cloud base) would target 102.40 (low Apr.21) en route to 102.33 (low Apr.18).

 

 

 


 

 

Apr 21, 2014

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USD/JPY fails to sustain gains

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY failed to sustain gains and pulled back from 2-week highs during the European session as the greenback weakened broadly as volume returns to normal after the long weekend.

 

The USD/JPY peaked at 102.71 and retreated to a low of 102.40 before finding support and settling in a slim range where it has spent the last hours. At time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 102.52, a few pips below its opening price.

 

In the macroeconomic domain, the US will release Feb housing price index and Mar existing home sales.

 

USD/JPY technical levels

 

In terms of technical levels, the USD/JPY could find immediate resistances at 102.71 (Apr 22 high), 102.89 (100-day SMA) and 103.00 (psychological level). On the downside, supports are seen at 102.41/37 (Apr 22 low/50-day SMA) and 102.00 (psychological level).

 

 

 


 

 

Apr 22, 2014

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US: Existing Home Sales down to 4.59M in March

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - US Existing Home Sales were at 4.59M in March, down from 4.60M in February the National Association of Realtors informed on Tuesday. Analysts projected a 4.55M result. 

 

This is a change of -0.2% from last month.

 

 

 


 

 

Apr 22, 2014

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The AUD/USD tears apart the 0.9370

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Aussie jumped above the 0.9370 following the latest set of upbeat economic data including housing and manufacturing index in the United States and the consumer confidence in the Eurozone. 

 

After rallying around 20 pips from 0.9355 in the latest few minutes, the AUD/USD broke above previous highs of 0.9370 and it has reached fresh daily highs at 0.9380. Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.9371, up 0.47% on the day.

 

AUD/USD levels

 

Above the 0.9380, the AUD/USD would face next resistances at 0.9390, 0.9425 and 0.9460. On the downside, supports are at 0.9320, 0.9310 and 0.9270.

 

 

 


 

 

Apr 22, 2014

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