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AUD/USD extends advance to 0.9350

 

 

 

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Australian dollar is extending gains above the 0.9300 area against the US dollar as the AUD/USD is reaching fresh 2014 highs around 0.9350.

 

The AUD/USD finally broke the 0.9300 area in the European session to 0.9340 as market seems to be looking for high yielders. Then the pair extended gains just ahead of the American opening bell to highst since November 20.

 

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.9344, up 0.79% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.9351 and low at 0.9261. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing overbought conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish.

 

AUD/USD levels to watch

 

Market says a barrier option interest at 0.9350 and 0.9400. Resistances are at 0.9351 (Daily High), 0.9400 and 0.9440. On the downside, supports are at 0.9325, 0.9300 and 0.9290.

 

 

 

 

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Apr 08, 2014

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EMEA EM Express: Russian, Ukrainian and EU officials to meet on renewed separatist tensions

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Tensions in Ukraine have started growing again, following the outbreak of pro-Russian demonstrations in three eastern Ukrainian cities over the weekend. Protesters in Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv took over government buildings and called for an independence referendum, such as that conducted in Crimea. Meanwhile Russia warned that this might be a beginning of a civil war. 

 

Ukraine's Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk said that the protests were a Russian provocation, aimed at fomenting unrest and making way for another intervention in Ukraine. Also the US said there was evidence that the demonstrators were not local people and warned Russia not to aggravate the situation. US Secretary of State John Kerry said that it would “incur costs.” 

 

Following a telephone conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov Kerry announced that withing the next ten days Russian, Ukrainian and EU officials will hold a meeting to discuss the situation.

 

The BBH Global Currency Strategy Team comment: “The situation remains fluid, but such cat-and-mouse actions are to be expected. We maintain our base case that despite the likelihood of periodic flare-ups in Ukraine, Russia will not risk antagonizing the West with further military actions. Instead, the battle seems likely to shift further to financial channels (sanctions and counter-sanctions) and away from the battleground itself in eastern Ukraine.” 

 

Meanwhile in Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban's governing Fidesz party won parliamentary elections held over the weekend, despite growing criticism that under their rule the independence of the judiciary and the media has been drastically reduced. 

 

Economic data

 

Statistics Estonia revealed don Monday that the Estonian CPI accelerated to 0.3% in March (MoM), from 0.1% registered in February. 

 

On Tuesday Hungary and Turkey published Industrial Production data for February. On an annual basis Hungary's Industrial Output jumped 8.1%, following a 6.1% increase and considerably above consensus of +6%.

 

Turkey's Industrial Output grew 4.9%, down from the 7.3% rise and almost in line with forecasts of a 5% increase.

 

Jacqui Douglas, Senior Global Strategist at TD Securities points out that “IP headline and details show that weakness of economic activity is starting to pass through into the economy.”

 

The Czech Unemployment rate, also released on Tuesday ticked down to 8.3% in March from 8.6% in February, beating expectations of a slide to 8.4%. 

 

South Africa's Business Confidence Index increased from 91.9 in February to 92.7 in March, the highest level in a year. 

 

Technicals

 

Despite investor concerns about the possibility of further sanctions being imposed on Russia, the ruble posted a strong performance on Monday. 

 

USD/RUB fell by 0.31% to 2.0917. The daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, and the OB/OS Index oversold. RSI was neutral at 48 at the last close. The Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was expanding at 4909 pips, with ATR (14) expanding at 4234 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 33.4937, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 35.6935.

 

The Turkish lira has been consolidating gains since Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP)won local elections last week. 

 

USD/TRY dropped by 0.87% on Monday to 2.0917. The daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, and the OB/OS Index oversold. RSI was neutral at 29 at the last close and moved up to 32 so far today. The Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was shrinking at 459 pips, with ATR (14) shrinking at 278 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 2.0701, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 2.1736.

 

 

 

 

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Apr 08, 2014

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IMF warns weak EU banks, low US rates can hurt global recovery

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The International Monetary Fund said today that global recovery could be hampered by the instability of the EU banking system. China's slowdown, the end of low rates in the US and potential tensions in emerging markets were other adverse factors mentioned by the organization.

 

The IMF urged EU officials to step up efforts to create a common backstop for failing banks and launch the banking union as soon as possible in order to prevent further destabilization.

 

Moreover, the fund warned that keeping rates low for an extended period of time in the US would make the QE exit even more difficult

 

“The key message is that strong policy actions are needed to definitely turn the corner from the great financial crisis and engineer a successful shift from 'liquidity-driven' to 'growth-driven' markets,” said José Viñals, IMF financial counselor. 

 

He also pointed to the problems in emerging markets where corporations will become more vulnerable to shocks along with the tightening of financial conditions.

 

“Higher debt loads and lower debt servicing capacity make corporates more sensitive to tighter external financing conditions and to a potential reversal of capital flows that could trigger a rise in borrowing costs and a drop in earnings,” Viñals suggested.

 

 

 

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Apr 09, 2014

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US EIA Crude Oil Stocks change registered at 4.03M to beat forecasts (1M) in April 4

 

 

 

 

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Apr 09, 2014

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US EIA Crude Oil Stocks change registered at 4.03M to beat forecasts (1M) in April 4

 

 

 

 

Consumer prices in Brazil rose to the highest level in 11 years by 0.92%, increasing the possibility that the country's central bank carries out another rate hike at the upcoming monetary policy meeting. 

 

The CPI acceleration, considerably above forecasts, also could weigh against President Dilma Rousseff's reelection in October. She already saw support wane from 44% in February to 38% this month. The Brazilian real strengthened on the news, as investors believe that markets will gain from Rousseff's leaving the office. 

Economic data

 

On Tuesday and Wednesday a slew of March CPI data was released in Latin America. Chilean month-on-month inflation came in slightly above consensus of 0.7% at 0.8% and up from the previous 0.5%. Core CPI was at 0.7%, following a 0.4% reading.

 

Brazil's IPCA inflation, released by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica grew 0.92% in March, up from the 0.69% rise in February. On an annual basis CPI increased 6.15%, following +5.68% and above forecasts of 6.08%. 

 

Mexico's 12-month inflation slowed down to 3.76% in March from 4.23% in February. Core inflation was at 0.21%, down from 0.28% and Headline inflation at 0.27%, following a 0.25% reading. 

 

Technicals

 

The USD/BRL rose by 0.82% to 2.2129 on Wednesday. The daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, with the OB/OS Index extremely oversold. RSI sat at 22 at the last close, and has reached 61 so far today. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was expanding at 478 pips, with ATR (14) at 312 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 2.3078 , while the 1D 20 EMA was at 2.2837.

 

The USD/MXN climbed 0.13% to 13.0654. The daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI sat at 41 at the last close, and has headed higher to 69 so far today. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was expanding at 884 pips, with ATR (14) at 886 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 13.0533, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 13.1201.

 

 

 

 

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Apr 09, 2014

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USD/CAD testing 1.0900

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The weakness around the greenback is gathering traction on Wednesday ahead of the FOMC minutes, dragging the USD/CAD to multi-week lows in sub-1.0900 levels.

 

USD/CAD in 3-month lows

 

Spot is testing levels last seen in mid-January below the 1.0900 handle following the generalized selling mood around the greenback. The pair, which is falling for the third consecutive week, will face the FOMC minutes this evening in Europe followed by some Fedspeak (Evans and Tarullo). According to Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, “The daily picture for USDCAD shows spot holding in a narrow range a little above the 1.0910 low registered in February. This is key support for funds; a break below here to new cycle lows will shift the balance of risks more obviously towards a drop to the low 1.07s”.

 

USD/CAD levels to consider

 

At the moment the pair is losing 0.15% at 1.0904 with the immediate support at 1.0900 (psychological level). On the flip side, a breakout of 1.1001 (low Mar.27) would expose 1.1078 (high Mar.28) and finally 1.1095 (weekly Tenkan Sen).

 

 

 

 

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Apr 09, 2014

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AUD/USD holds onto gains

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD continues to consolidate yesterday's gains, oscillating near multi-month highs at the area but unable to resume the rally as investors await the FOMC minutes release.

 

The AUD/USD spiked to a fresh 4-month high of 0.9386 in the wake of solid Australian confidence and housing data, but lacked follow-through and was confined to a range, contained by the 0.9350 zone on the downside. Currently, the AUD/USD is trading at the 0.9365 area, virtually unchanged Wednesday.

 

AUD/USD technical perspective

 

"The AUD/USD hourly chart shows price consolidating above its 20 SMA that turns flat and losses upward potential, while indicators aim slightly higher after correcting overbought readings", said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. "In the 4 hours chart the overall bullish trend prevails albeit some downward corrective movement towards 0.9330 support can't be ruled out".

 

 

 

 

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Apr 09, 2014

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USD expected to rebound on economic strength in the US – UBS

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The UBS analyst team commented that despite recent weakness seen in the dollar, the currency is expected to rebound eventually given improved economic strength in the US.

 

Key Quotes

 

"The dollar lost recent gains on Tuesday. Traders cited the decline in US treasury yields, which has put pressure on the USD. Cooling expectations about quant easing measures by the ECB certainly helped to weaken the USD against the Euro and the Swiss franc". 

 

"But improved risk taking also helped a broad recovery of most emerging market currencies versus the USD". 

 

"We continue to expect the USD to rebound eventually on improved economic strength in the US".

 

 

 

 

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Apr 09, 2014

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USD/CAD jumps above 1.0900

 

 

 

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The US dollar is currently gaining ground against its Canadian counterpart as the pair has reacted to the upside after the good data in the US. 

 

The USD/CAD was initially well supported by the 1.0875 area in the European morning; however movements were limited until the jobless claims report that came better than expected. Data fueled pair to break above the 1.0900 key level and to trade at daily highs around 1.0920. 

 

Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.0909, up 0.31% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.0922 and low at 1.0868. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish. 

 

USD/CAD levels

 

If the pair holds above the 1.0900 area, next resistances are at 1.0922 (Daily High), 1.0944 (Yesterday's High) and 1.0960. On the downside, supports are at 1.0875, 1.0865 and 1.0955.

 

 

 

 

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Apr 10, 2014

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AUD/USD cae a 0.9400

 

 

 

FXStreet (San Francisco) - El AUD/USD extiende su rechazo desde máximos de 5 meses alrededor de 0.9465 y ahora está poniendo a prueba el soporte de 0.9400 con la apertura del mercado americano.

 

Actualmente, el AUD/USD se cotiza a 0.9402, sube 0,12% aún en el día, después de haber contabilizado un máximo diario en 0.9465 y mínimo a 0.9370. 

 

"El comportamiento del precio hace que te preguntes si la oleada de esta mañana a 0.9461 era un top de purga. Tiene ese tipo de sensación", comentó recientemente Jamie Coleman de FXBeat. "La advertencia de Lagarde de un aterrizaje forzoso de China podría ayudar a soplar un poco de espuma fuera del Aussie también."

 

Niveles AUD/USD

 

Hay paradas vistas alrededor de 0.9390/95, mientras que las ofertas se encuentran en 0.9370. Otros soportes se encuentran en 0.9350 y 0.9335. Al alza, las resistencias se encuentran en 0.9430 y 0.9465.

 

 

 

 

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Apr 10, 2014

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EMEA EM Express: Ukrainian hryvnia plunges to record low on rising tensions with Russia

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Russian President Vladimir Putin informed EU leaders on Thursday that Ukraine's gas debt situation was “critical” and that the country's failure to meet its obligations would have an impact on the supplies of gas to European countries which receive it via pipelines which cross Ukraine.

 

Putin met with government ministers on Wednesday and decided that no critical measures against Ukraine would be taken until further talks with EU officials were held. PM Dmitry Medvedev said that Ukraine owed Russia 2.2 billion dollars for the supplied gas. Earlier on Tuesday Ukrainian Energy Minister Yury Prodan said that the country was temporarily reducing gas imports from Russia and halting the payments for March, until the issue was settled. PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk called Gazprom's recent 80% gas price hike an “aggression against Ukraine.” 

 

Jamie Coleman from FXBeat suggests that because Ukraine is the key transit route for Russian gas to Europe, “Putin could leverage that fact to get Europe to cover Ukraine's gas debt in order to keep supplies flowing.” 

 

“With Europe in the midst of a weak recovery, the last thing it needs is an energy crisis,” the expert adds.

 

Kiev meanwhile is searching for alternative sources of gas supply and if Poland and Hungary start providing it soon enough, Ukraine might cope without the energy from Russia. 

Economic data

 

On Thursday Romania's National Institute of Statistics informed that March CPI was at 1%, down from 1.1% seen in February.

 

Also Industrial Production data was released, showing a 1.3% month-on-month decline in February, compared with 6.4% growth in January. 

 

South Africa's Manufacturing Production Index climbed 1.4% in February year-on-year, following 2.2% growth recorded the previous month, according to data released today by Statistics South Africa Head Office. 

 

Technicals

 

Ukrainian hryvnia tumbled to a new record low against the dollar at 12.70 on Thursday, on the exacerbation of the gas row with Russia, separatist unrest in its eastern regions and the ongoing negotiations on rescue funds

 

On Wednesday USD/UAH jumped by 4.39% to 12.40. The daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bullish, and the OB/OS Index extremely overbought. RSI was at 89 at the last close. 

 

This year so far the hryvnia rate has fallen by 44.69% from 8.2730 UAH/USD to 11.97 UAH/USD in the interbank market.

 

 

 

 

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Apr 10, 2014

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ECB's Praet says Governing Council 'comfortable' with forward guidance

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet said Thursday that the central bank hadn't changed its assessment that interest rates should remain at their present or lower levels for an extended period. 

 

Speaking on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank Spring meetings, Praet assured that the forward guidance was having a positive impact on money markets, as their reaction to external developments “has been much more insulated." Markets trust the ECB to do what's needed in the face of low inflation, he stressed.

 

Furthermore, ECB's chief economist said that a high degree of slack remained in the Eurozone economy. He pointed out that the recovery in the area remained "modest, uneven" and "increasingly broad-based." 

 

He also acknowledged the fact that while confidence indicators picked up considerably, activity hasn't and that should be carefully monitored. He added that the output gap "is unlikely to be closed before 2017 for the euro area as a whole."

 

“EUR/USD has hardly reacted to the comments or the earlier US data as it consolidates in the 1.3860/70 zone,” remarks Adam Button from Forex Live. “There’s nothing in his comments that suggests the ECB is any close to cutting rates or QE. That’s a greenlight for buying the euro and the market doesn’t seem to care about the softer-than-expected French CPI numbers released today.”

 

 

 

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Apr 10, 2014

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GBP/USD extends correction

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD extends a downward correction from 2-month highs during the American session in quiet trading.

 

The GBP/USD peaked at 1.6819 during the Asian session, stalling just 2 pips shy of its 2014 high, and it has continued to move south at a slow pace throughout the day, with the Bank of England decision to keep policy unchanged having virtually no impact on the pound. Having hit a daily low at 1.6754, the GBP/USD is down -0.15% on the day and presently trading at 1.6768.

 

GBP/USD technical outlook

 

Technically, short term charts are gaining a bearish tone although the dominant trend remains bullish, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet, supporting a downward corrective movement towards 1.6720 strong static support area. "Corrective movements may extend down to 1.6660, but the dominant bullish change will hardly be affected; on the other hand, a break above 1.6820 high should trigger further gains, eyeing 1.6880 in the short term".

 

 

 

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Apr 10, 2014

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USD/JPY attempting to make further lows below 101.40

 

 

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The USD/JPY is extending its decline from 102.00 and currently it is attempting to make further lows below 101.40 as the pair is pricing at lows since March 19 at 101.35. 

 

According to Chris Tevere from Forex.com: the "USD/JPY is attempting to break below channel support, drawn from the Feb. Low around 101.50." Tevere affirms that a "daily close below needed for confirmation."

 

Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 101.38, down -0.59% on the day, having posted a daily high at 102.16 and low at 101.35. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bearish.

 

USD/JPY levels to watch

 

Supports can be found at 101.38 (Daily Low), 101.36 (Monthly Low) and 101.00 (YTD Low). On the upside, the USD/JPY would face resistances at 101.50, 101.80 and 102.00.

 

 

 

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Apr 10, 2014

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EUR current levels uncomfortable? - Investec

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec, underlined the rising concerns from the current EUR strength.

 

Key Quotes

 

"The main news from over the weekend came from comments from the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, indicating that the central bank would implement more monetary stimulus if they witnessed further appreciation of the Euro".

 

"Whilst GBPEUR has been on a steady climb in recent months as the pound has been one of the best performing currencies in the G10, the single currency has appreciated against most other major currencies and it’s clear that European officials are now uncomfortable with the impact this is having on European exporters".

 

"‘Further monetary stimulus’ could come in the form of negative interest rates and/or quantitative easing and the news led to weakness in the euro earlier today."

 

 

 

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Apr 14, 2014

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GBP/USD hits lows sub-1.6700

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD extended its correction lower Monday although at a slower pace, with solid US retail sales data dragging the pair to fresh lows at the beginning of the American session.

 

The GBP/USD pierced below the 1.6700 mark and printed a fresh 6-day low of 1.6696 before finding support. US retail sales grew 1.1% in March, beating the 0.8% rise expected, while excluding autos, it rose 0.7% versus 0.5% expected, giving the greenback a boost. 

 

GBP/USD technical levels

 

At time of writing, the Cable is trading at 1.6700, down 0.2% on the day, with immediate supports seen at 1.6695 (Apr 14 low), 1.6679 (10-day SMA) and 1.6622 (21-day SMA). On the upside, resistances could be found at 1.6743 (Apr 14 high), 1.6786 (Apr 11 high) and 1.6819 (Apr 10 high).

 

 

 

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Apr 14, 2014

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EMEA EM Express: Stocks and ruble fall on unrest in east Ukraine, threats of further sanctions against Russia

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Tensions between Ukraine and Russia escalated over the weekend with pro- and anti-Russian demonstrators continuing clashes in the east part of Ukraine and Kiev threatening to conduct a "full-scale anti-terrorist operation" against people occupying government buildings if they refuse to leave by Monday morning.

 

The ultimatum hasn't been carried out however and more official buildings have been seized by pro-Russian protesters on Monday. Ukraine's interim president Olexander Turchynov once again called the developments a Russian “aggression” but at the same time suggested that he wasn't against a referendum on the future of the country and its shift from a republic to a federation

 

"We are not against holding a national referendum," the president said. "I am certain that a majority of Ukrainians will support an indivisible, independent, democratic and united Ukraine." 

 

Furthermore, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting on Sunday during which the US accused Russia of fomenting unrest in Ukraine and warned it could impose further sanctions on Russia. 

 

On Monday also European Union foreign ministers, gathered in Luxembourg to discuss the Ukraine crisis, suggested that more sanctions against Moscow would be imposed. British Foreign Secretary William Hague said that Russia was continuing to destabilize the situation in Ukraine on purpose and that quick action was required to stop it. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski urged other officials to expand the sanctions list as soon as possible.

 

"The EU has to make it clear to Russia what are the consequences of any possible future actions in eastern Ukraine," he said. "I expect a very specific signal when we can expect sanctions if Russia takes further steps." 

 

But some of the EU officials, worried about the problems such a move could cause for gas transit, weren't eager to take such quick action and preferred to wait until more talks were held on Thursday in Geneva. 

 

The Russian ruble fell to the lowest level in three weeks and stocks tumbled. The Micex Index registered its sharpest decline in a week, dropping by 1.7% to 1339.73.

 

Economic data

 

Israel's quarterly GDP data showed a pickup in growth to 3.2% in Q1, following a 1.8% rise the previous quarter, the Central bureau of statistics informed on Sunday. This result is more positive than the expected 3% increase.

 

Israeli CPI, released on Monday, climbed 1.3% on an annual basis in March, slightly up from the 1.2% rise registered the previous month. Month-on-month inflation increased 0.3%, compared with the 0.2% drop. 

 

Year-on-year Polish M3 Money Supply, also published on Monday, rose 5.1% in March, up from 5.3% in February and above projections of 4.8% growth. 

 

Technicals

 

The Russian ruble weakened 0.6% against the central bank’s target basket of dollars and euros to 42.1394 on Monday. USD/RUB grew by 0.74% to 35.8930.

 

On Friday the daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, and the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was at 49 at the last close and slid to 43 so far today. The Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was shrinking at 3852 pips, with ATR (14) shrinking at 3587 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 33.5418, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 35.6723.

 

 

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Apr 14, 2014

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US Business Inventories missed forecasts (0.5%) in February: Actual (0.4%)

 

 

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Apr 14, 2014

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USD/CAD turns south

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD spiked to daily highs but failed to sustain gains and dropped to negative ground for the day as the CAD benefited from solid US data and a positive opening in Wall Street.

 

US retail sales grew 1.1% in March, beating the 0.8% rise expected, while excluding autos, it rose 0.7% versus 0.5% expected. The USD/CAD retested highs at the 1.0990 area before turning south, falling to a fresh daily low of 1.0955 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.0960, recording a 0.14% loss on the day.

 

USD/CAD levels to watch

 

In terms of technical levels, the USD/CAD could find immediate supports at 1.0955 (Apr 14 low), 1.0929 (100-hour SMA) and 1.0900 (psychological level). On the upside, resistances are seen at 1.0991 (Apr 14 high), 1.1000 (psychological level) and 1.1009 (Apr 7 high).

 

 

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CORRECTION: European Monetary Union Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.2%) in February

 

 

 

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Apr 14, 2014

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CORRECTION: European Monetary Union Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.2%) in February

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD bounced sharply off intraday lows and completely erased daily losses following the knee-jerk reaction to UK inflation figures.

 

The GBP/USD broke out yesterday's range and fell to a 6-day low of 1.6669 only to quickly bounce toward a fresh high of 1.6730. The pound reacted positively to inflation data, which showed UK CPI fell to a 4 1/2 year low of 1.6% YoY in March, meeting market's consensus. 

 

 

GBP/USD levels to watch

 

At time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.6725, virtually unchanged since opening, with immediate resistances at 1.6730 (Apr 15 high), 1.6743 (Apr 14 high) and 1.6786 (Apr 11 high), while supports are seen at 1.6669 (Apr 15 low), 1.6630 (20-day SMA) and 1.6603 (Apr 8 low).

 

From a technical perspective, Stoyan Mihaylov, analyst at DeltaStock.com said the bias here remains negative below 1.6750 resistance, for a slide towards 1.6670 support zone.

 

 

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Fed's Yellen: US economy still recovering from the financial crisis

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Speaking at the Atlanta Fed’s Financial Market Conference, Fed chair Janet Yellen says that major US banks might need more capital.

 

• "There might be room for stronger capital and liquidity standards for large banks," she suggests. 

 

• New regulations do not encompass shadow banking.

 

• The FOMC is discussing further measures to address short-term wholesale funding market stability risks

 

• “New Basel liquidity rules do not fully address short term funding risk,” the Fed chair says.

 

 

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USD/JPY shaken by the US CPI data

 

 

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The US dollar reacted erratic against the Japanese Yen following the US CPI data with the pair reaching a 1-hour candlestick's high of 101.95 and a low of 101.80; The USD/JPY remains below the 102.00 key level. 

 

Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 101.80, down 0.02% on the day, having posted a daily high at 102.01 and low at 101.69. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bearish. 

 

The Consumer Price Index in the United States came above expectations with 1.5% YoY figure in March. That's a relief from deflation fears and it provides the Fed with extra-time to deal with a interest's rates hike.

 

USD/JPY levels

 

If the USD/JPY clears the 102.00 area, next resistances could be found at 102.15 (Apr 9 high) and 102.44 (21-day SMA). On the other hand, supports are seen at 101.68 (Apr 15 low), 101.41 (Apr 14 low) and 101.32 (Apr 11 low).

 

 

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Fed's Yellen: FOMC considering additional measures to address short-term wholesale funding risk

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - In a prerecorded video with remarks opening the Atlanta Fed’s Financial Market Conference on Tuesday, Fed Chair Yellen signaled that the US economy is still recovering from the financial crisis and that stronger capital and liquidity standards for large banks might be required to protect their source of funding in case of renewed tensions. 

 

Yellen pointed out that the current regulations "do not fully address the financial stability concerns associated with short-term wholesale funding,” and added that the FOMC was already considering “additional measures that could address these and other residual risks in the short-term wholesale funding markets.” 

 

The Fed chair also stressed that the recently adopted rules on liquidity standards for global financial institutions did not apply to shadow banking.

 

 

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EMEA EM Express: Ukraine begins "anti-terrorist" operation; central bank hikes rates to stop hryvnia decline

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - The Ukrainian-Russian crisis remains in the spotlight on Tuesday as Kiev decided to kick off the “anti-terrorist” operation against pro-Russian demonstrators occupying government buildings in the eastern Donetsk region. According to recent reports Ukraine forces have surrounded the city of Slovyansk and attacked a military airfield controlled by pro-Russian militants. 

 

Ukraine's acting president Oleksandr Turchynov told the parliament today that Moscow is not only targeting the Donetsk region but wants “the whole south and east of Ukraine to be engulfed by fire." He added that the aim of the operation in progress is to “defend the citizens of Ukraine, to stop terror, stop crime and stop attempts to tear our country into pieces."

 

The Kremlin said on Tuesday that there were no Russian forces in eastern Ukraine and that Kiev's allegations were “absurd.” 

 

Meanwhile, the head of Gazprom Alexei Miller released a statement in which he assured the EU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger that the transit of gas to Europe would continue without disruptions. 

 

Fears of further sanctions and an escalation of the conflict with Ukraine sent Russia's Micex index down by nearly 2% on Monday. On Tuesday it fell by 1.3%. The index has already dropped by more than 10% since the beginning of the year. 

 

In Ukraine, the central bank decided late Monday to hike its benchmark interest rate from to 9.5% from 6.5% to halt the sharp drop in the hryvnia seen since the beginning of the year. The overnight loan rate was also increased: to 14.5% from 7.5%. The currency reacted by jumping over 8% against the dollar on Tuesday, although the increase might be just short-term. 

 

Economic data

 

Polish March CPI data, published on Tuesday showed a 0.1% increase month-on-month following +0.1% in February and slightly below forecasts of a 0.2% rise. On an annual basis inflation continued growing at a 0.7% pace, as expected

 

Also on Tuesday TurkStat revealed that Turkey's The 3mth Jobless Average edged up further to 10.1% in January from 10% in December, the highest level seen since March 2013. 

 

Turkish budget surplus of TRY 1.67B recorded in January shifted to a deficit of TRY -5.10B in February. 

Technicals

 

On Tuesday the Russian ruble was fairly unmoved against the central bank’s target basket of dollars and euros at 42.1805. USD/RUB rose by 0.45% at 36.1422. 

 

On Monday the USD/RUB daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bullish, and the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was at 56 at the last close and slid to 43 so far today. The Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was shrinking at 3680 pips, with ATR (14) shrinking at 3639 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 33.5557, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 35.7026.

 

Ukraine's hryvnia surged 8.1% to 12.59 at midday.

 

 

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