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Moody’s upgrades EU outlook from negative to stable, rating

 

 


FXStreet (Córdoba) - FXStreet (Córdoba) - Moody’s Investor Service affirmed the highest rating (Aaa) for the European Union and upgraded the outlook from negative to stable, on the back of an improvement in the credit outlook of Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Italy and Spain and on diminishing risks from the Euro area debt crisis. 

 

Key Quotes:

 

“The key drivers of today's outlook change are as follows:(1) The improvement in the creditworthiness of the EU's largest shareholders, which it depends on for additional support in high stress scenarios. (2) Diminishing risks emanating from the euro area debt crisis, which alleviates pressure on asset quality”. 

 

“The key drivers for today's affirmation of the EU's Aaa/(P)P-1 ratings are: 1) The joint and several liability of member states with regard to their obligations to the EU. 2) The EU's multi-layer debt-service protection. 3) The EU's conservative budget management”.

 

“Risks to the creditworthiness of the EU and to its rating include a deterioration in the creditworthiness of the EU member states, as reflected in downgrades of Moody's ratings for these states. The EU's rating is particularly sensitive to changes in the ratings of the four countries rated Aaa or Aa1 that make large contributions to the EU budget (i.e., Germany, France, the UK and the Netherlands). A weakening of the commitment of the member states to the EU and changes to the EU's fiscal framework that would lead to less conservative budget management would also be credit negative”.

 


 

 

Mar 15, 2014

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Flash: USD/CAD retains the bullish bias - TD Securities

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Shaun Osbourne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, remarks the bullish outlook of the USD/CAD.

 

Key Quotes

 

"USDCAD remains trapped in a right range. Event risk is evident for the CAD this week as well—Governor Poloz speaks Tuesday at the Halifax Chamber of Commerce in NS and will hold a press conference afterwards."

 

"On Friday, Canada releases key data—retail sales and CPI—which may go some way to shaking the CAD out of the consolidation range in place in the past few weeks—one way or the other. We favour s topside break out above 1.1130."

 

"USDCAD retains a heavy bias so far today. The CAD is well-supported alongside the broadly firmer AUD and NZD, while safe-haves such as the JPY and CHF are under-performing.USDCAD is pressuring support in the mid 1.10 area and easing below the 40-day MA at 1.1072 in early trade today—though we don’t think the move is likely to extend too far at present."

 

"We still rather think the underlying trend in funds is higher, supported by improving US fundamentals, Fed tapering and the less than dynamic growth backdrop in Canada which has encouraged a significant narrowing in spreads in the belly of the curve in the past few months, with US-Canada 5 year spreads tracking a little below flat again today helping support the USD arou8nd 1.1050/70."

 


 

 

Mar 17, 2014

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Flash: Japanese trade deficit could be reverted - BBH

 


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, expects February's trade balance in Japan to show improved figures.

 

Key Quotes

 

"Japan is likely to report a marked improvement in its February trade balance. The January trade shortfall was JPY2.79 trln."

 

"It was likely distorted by seasonal factors and the Lunar New Year. The consensus for the February deficit is near JPY602 bln."

 

"This probably understates the real size of the Japanese monthly trade deficit. The 12-month average is near JPY820 bln."

 

"At the same time, a seasonal improvement in investment income suggests a trade deficit this size may not fuel a current account deficit. The streak of four consecutive monthly current account deficits may come to an end when the February balance is reported in early April."

 


 

 

Mar 17, 2014

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Flash: AUD/USD more gains above 0.9100 - FXStreet

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet notes the AUD/USD presents a limited positive tone in short-term charts.

 

Key Quotes

 

"The positive mood among stocks traders is giving a nice support to Aussie, which trades near its daily high, with the hourly chart showing a strong upward momentum and RSI nearing overbought territory". 

 

"In the same time frame, 20 SMA heads higher below current price while the 4 hours chart technical readings present a more limited positive tone, with recent highs around 0.9100 as immediate resistance level to break to gain further bullish tone". 

 

"Support levels: 0.9040 0.9000 0.8960. Resistance levels: 0.9100 0.9130 0.9170".

 

 


 

 

Mar 17, 2014

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GBP/USD dips below 1.6600

 

 


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling is quickly losing ground on Tuesday, pushing the GBP/USD to fresh intraday lows in sub-1.6600 levels.

 

GBP/USD focus on Carney’s speech today

 

A bout of selling orders is now dragging spot to the lower band of the weekly range near 1.6590, down from the mid-1.66s just moments ago. There are no data releases in the UK today, although Governor Carney’s speech in the European evening would grab traders’ attention. Ahead in the week, key labour market figures are due tomorrow (ILO u-rate at 7.2% exp.) followed by the BoE minutes (expected a non-event), and all ending with the FOMC gathering. “We suspect that the market will need to break back below 1.6532 (the 8 month uptrend) in order to re-focus attention on to the 1.6259/29 support zone which remains key (September high and the 23.6% retracement of the move up from July 2013)”, commented Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.

 

GBP/USD levels to watch

 

The pair is now losing 0.23% at 1.6598 with the next support at 1.6587 (low Mar.14) followed by 1.6568 (low Mar.12) and then 1.6553 (50-d MA). On the flip side, a breakout of 1.6667 (high Mar.17) would open the door to 1.6719 (high Mar.13) and finally 1.6745 (high Mar.10).

 

 


 

 

Mar 18, 2014

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EUR/USD got nervous due to sudden pound weakness

 

 

FXStreet (Moscow) - EUR/USD was trading close to session highs, but bounced back to 1.3910 area scared by the cable sell-off.

 

Spill-over effect from the pound

 

EUR/USD followed the move down after GBP/USD lost more than 50 pips in an hour. The prime seller of the pound is rumored to be a custody bank. The significant amount of the transaction means it is the move within some strategic frame, thus the sell-off interest may have spill-over effect on other European currencies, as happened with the euro already. By the time of writing, it reached 1.3907 low from 1.3937 session high posted in Asia. Nevertheless, the move down will be complicated by the noted buyers’ interest around 1.39 area, with more around 1.3885.

 

What are today’s key EUR/USD levels?

Today's central pivot point can be found at 1.3916, with support below at 1.3884, 1.3845 and 1.3813, with resistance above at 1.3955, 1.3987, and 1.4026. Hourly Moving Averages are bullish, with the 200SMA at 1.3869 and the daily 20EMA bullish at 1.3805. Hourly RSI is neutral at 56.

 

 


 

 

Mar 18, 2014

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Gold's falls below 1,350 after 3-day decline

 

 

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The gold is extending declines from March 17 high of $1,394 as today the pair broke the 1,350 support to trade at lows since May 10 at 1,337.65.

 

At this moment, the XAU/USD is pricing at 1,338.53, 1.45% negative in the day. "Gold extends its slide to a fresh 8 day low, breaking below its 20 SMA in the daily chart, and gaining bearish momentum in the mentioned time frame," comments Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet chief analyst. 

 

With the FED around the corner, "the metal will likely consolidate in the short term, yet a break below the daily low with the news should lead to a test of the 1,327 immediate support, while once below this last 1,318 comes next," Bednarik adds.

 

Resistances for today, come at 1,354, and 1,367.

 

 


 

 

Mar 19, 2014

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AUD/USD finds support sub-0.9100

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD is staging a pullback from its 3-month high of 0.9137 scored during the Asian session, moving in tandem with gold that is also in retreat. 

 

The AUD/USD came under pressure Wednesday and even fell below the 0.9100 mark, although briefly, amid broad USD strength ahead of the Federal Reserve verdict. At time of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at the 0.9105 zone, recording a 0.2% loss on the day and with a low set at 0.9094 so far.

 

AUD/USD technical outlook

 

From a technical perspective, "the hourly chart shows price below its 20 SMA and indicators presenting a mild bearish tone in neutral territory, more suggesting a pause before a new leg up than a top", says Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. "In the 4 hours chart the bullish tone remains healthy, albeit a clear confirmation above 0.9130 is required to see a new leg up".

 

 


 

 

Mar 19, 2014

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GBP/JPY drifting south, losing 169 handle

 

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Sterling had the BoE today that underpinned the pounds strength on the European session, lifting GBP/JPY to a high of 169.14.

 

The minutes revealed that the UK economy is broadening its recovery but there is still some way to go before the recovery is sustainable and balanced. Meanwhile, markets are nervous ahead of the sales ta hike on 1st April. 

 

GBP/JPY Levels

 

The 20 DMA is 170.45, the 50 DMA is 170.05 and the 200 DMA is 160.90. RSI (14) reads 53.25. Supports are ascending from 166.15,166.80, 167.20 and 167.55. Spot is 168.80 while resistances are 169.20, 169.60,170.20 and 171.60.

 

 


 

 

Mar 19, 2014

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EUR/JPY recovers the 141.00 position and trades at 141.20

 

 

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The risk appetite is back on the market with the Euro gaining ground against the Japanese Yen following the upbeat Philly Fed number released today. 

 

The EUR/JPY jumped around 35 pips in the latest few minutes from 2-day low at 140.80 to price at 141.20. Pair is currently trading at 141.11, 0.30% negative in the day. The short term perspective is now slightly bullish according to the FXStreet trend index. CCI and Momentum are pointing to the north while the Stochastic and MACD are neutrals.

 

EUR/JPY sentiment

 

"We've made a few probes below trendline support at 140.90 but keep popping back into the range and now trade at 141.15," commented Jamie Coleman from FXBeat. "US equities have turned higher on the day after upbeat data from the Philly Fed. The hope is that the upbeat data translates to strong ISM data on April 1."

 

Below the 140.80/90 area, the pair would face supports at 140.70 and 140.45. On the upside, resistances are at 141.40 area, 141.70 and 141.90.

 


 

 

Mar 20, 2014

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USD/JPY muted after US data

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY continues to consolidate in a slim range Thursday as investors digest the latest FOMC statement, unable to set a short-term direction with the latest string of US data having virtually no impact on the cross.

 

The USD/JPY has spent the entire day consolidating the previous' day gains, trading within 102.20 and 102.55. At time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at the 102.40 zone, virtually unchanged on the day.

 

While US jobless claims came in better-than-expected, existing home sales unexpectedly fell in February while Philly Fed manufacturing index beat expectations. 

 

USD/JPY technical levels

 

"USD/JPY gains had been modest compared to dollar European crosses, albeit the pair is far from even testing critical levels: contained below 102.60 Fibonacci resistance, the hourly chart shows indicators corrected most of the overbought readings and approach their midlines, while 200 SMA offers short term support currently around 102.10", said Valeria Bednarik, analyst at FXStreet. "In the 4 hours chart a mild bullish tone prevails, albeit unless a clear advance beyond mentioned resistance, the upside will likely remain limited".

 


 

 

Mar 20, 2014

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USD and Yellen; Mind the gap - HSBC

 

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Daragh Maher, FX Strategist at HSBC, explained the gap between end of QE and first rate hike is what counts.

 

Key Quotes:

 

“Tapering no longer captivates the market. We argued back in January that the key driver to the market would become the expected gap between the end of QE and the first rate hike”. 

 

“Yellen's suggestion last night that this gap might only be 6 months caught the market by surprise and provoked widespread USD buying. Unless the Fed back-tracks in future comments, this should provide further support for the USD”.

 

“The chart below the expected gap between QE end and the first hike, based on Bloomberg surveys and Fed funds futures for when the policy rate should reach 0.50%. Three phases are worth noting”.


 

 

Mar 20, 2014

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Obama announces more sanctions against Russia

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - US president Barack Obama said on Thursday that additional Russian officials would come under US sanctions, which would also be broadened to other "key sectors of the Russian economy."

 

The president suggested that the events in Ukraine were heading towards an escalation with the country's southern and eastern parts under threat of Russian invasion. 

 

"Diplomacy between the U.S. and Russia continues. We've emphasized that Russia still has a different path available," Obama said at the White House. "We want the Ukrainian people to determine their own destiny and to have good relations with the United States, Russia, Europe, with anyone they choose."

 

Later today Obama will also make a statement on the situation in Ukraine.

 

 

 


 

 

Mar 20, 2014

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EUR/USD capped by 1.3800

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The key 1.3800 level still remains elusive for EUR bulls on Friday, with the EUR/USD gearing up at the 1.3790/95 area.

 

EUR/USD lifted by risk appetite

 

The pair is smiling again against a backdrop of better risk sentiment today. Spot is currently pushing to break above the 1.3800 handle, as the sedative effects from the FOMC statement are slowly dissipating. A wider EMU’s Current Account surplus during January would also be adding to the optimism. “While we cannot rule out that this week’s hawkish Fed messages could prove a turning point for EUR/USD, we do not think a massive sell-off will be seen from here in the near term”, noted Jens Pedersen, Analyst at Danske Bank.

 

EUR/USD levels to watch

 

The pair is now up 0.08% at 1.3789 with the next resistance at 1.3805 (Kijun Sen) ahead of 1.3811 (21-d MA) and then 1.3845 (high Mar.20). On the downside, a breach of 1.3749 (low Mar.20) would open the door to 1.3722 (50% of 1.3477-1.3967) and finally 1.3720 (low Mar.6).

 

 

 


 

 

Mar 21, 2014

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USD/CAD bounces off 1.1220

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After bottoming out near 1.1220, the USD/CAD is now extending its rebound to the mid-1.12s ahead of the Canadian docket.

 

USD/CAD eyes key data

 

The pair is correcting lower from multi-year peaks around 1.1280, printed post-FOMC on Wednesday. Spot would be in the limelight during the European afternoon, as Canadian inflation figures during February (BoC 1.1% YoY exp.) and January’s retail sales are due (headline 0.7% exp.) ahead of key Fedspeak. “Our hunch is that the consensus is looking for today’s Fed speak to ‘soothe’ some of the fears instigated by Wednesday’s FOMC, so we’d be cautious about buying USDCAD 1.122-1.125 if the data are on the better side”, commented Stephen Gallo, European Head FX Strategy at BMO.

 

USD/CAD levels to consider

 

As of writing the pair is advancing 0.04% at 1.1251 with the next resistance at 1.1300 (psychological level) ahead of 1.1669 (61.8% of 1.3066-0.9407) and then 1.1680 (high Jul.10 2009). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.1122 (low Mar.19) would target 1.1045 (daily cloud top) and finally 1.1025 (low Mar.18).

 

 

 


 

 

Mar 21, 2014

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AUD/USD falters ahead of 0.9100

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD has continued moving higher throughout the European session, breaking above the 100-hour SMA to reach daily highs just a few pips shy of the 0.9100 mark.

 

The AUD/USD advanced helped by the positive tone in stocks and climbed to a fresh post-FOMC high of 0.9091 before finding resistance. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 0.9080 area, recording a 0.5% gain on the day. In the absence of news and with nothing in the US docket, trading might remain subdued the rest of the day. 

 

AUD/USD levels to watch

 

In terms of technical levels, if the AUD/USD breaks above 0.9100 (psychological level), next resistances could be found at 0.9137 (Mar 19 high) and 0.9147 (200-day SMA). On the other hand, supports are seen at 0.9032 (100-day SMA) and 0.8994 (Mar 20 low).

 

 

 


 

 

Mar 21, 2014

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Canada: CPI (Feb) rose 1.1% YoY

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) -Canadian consumer prices rose 1.1% on a year through February, exceeding expectations at 0.9%. On a monthly basis prices gained 0.8%, vs. 0.6% estimated. The Bank of Canada Core CPI rose 1.2% over the last twelve months and 0.7% on a monthly basis, vs. forecasts at 1.1% and 0.5%, respectively.

 

 

 


 

 

Mar 21, 2014

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EUR/USD consolidating around 1.3770

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency is now trying to consolidate after the post-PMI decline, with the EUR/USD now meandering around 1.3770/65.

 

EUR/USD attention to ZEW

 

With the manufacturing and services PMIs now in the rear mirror, market participants would turn their focus on tomorrow’s German ZEW Survey. Spot would remain under pressure however, as market consensus expects Business Climate and Expectations components to come in a tad lower for the current month, while Current Assessment would marginally improve. Martin van Vliet, Analyst at ING Bank NV, assessed “the further weakening in the Chinese PMI and the relatively strong euro do not bode well for export growth momentum going forward and with unemployment still elevated and fiscal policy still contractionary, a strong revival in domestic demand seems unlikely going forward. That said, the further signs of recovery will encourage the ECB in refraining from further monetary easing, at least in the short term”.

 

EUR/USD significant levels

 

The pair is now losing 0.15% at 1.3773 and a breach of 1.3749 (low Mar.20) would open the door to 1.3722 (50% of 1.3477-1.3967) and finally 1.3720 (low Mar.6). On the upside, the initial hurdle aligns at 1.3827 (high Mar.24) ahead of 1.3845 (high Mar.20) and then 1.3862 (10-d MA).

 

 

 


 

 

Mar 24, 2014

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GBP/USD flirting with 1.6500

 

 

 


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After dipping to fresh lows near 1.6460, the GBP/USD managed to pick up pace is currently challenging the key barrier at 1.6500.

 

GBP/USD decoupling from the EUR/USD

 

The pair is now reverting the initial drop along with its European peer, recovering from a negative start and looking to regain 1.6500 the figure. In the view of Jane Foley, Senior Currency strategist at Rabobank, “the BoE currently looks set to hike rates before the Fed, ECB or the BoJ. For this reason, sterling could attract fresh buying interest in the coming months. While we expect a broad-based USD recovery to push cable lower by year-end, we expect EUR/GBP to push back towards the 0.81. Given that sterling longs have been cleared out in recent weeks, better UK economic data this week could lend the pound decent support”.

 

GBP/USD levels to watch

 

The pair is now up 0.04% at 1.6496 with the next resistance at 1.6520 (high Mar.21) ahead of 1.6550 (55-d MA) and finally 1.6570 (high Mar.20). On the downside, a break below 1.6453 (38.2% of 1.5854-1/6823) would open the door to 1.6425 (low Feb.12) and then 1.6392 (low Feb.11).

 

 

 


 

 

Mar 24, 2014

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AUD/USD climbs to tops near 0.9120

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Aussie dollar not only regained the 0.9100 handle, but it is also pushing the AUD/USD to print fresh multi-day highs near 0.9120.

 

AUD/USD extends the rebound

 

The pair is now retracing the deep pullback post-FOMC gathering on March 19th, coming up from the vicinity of 0.8990 despite today’s weaker than expected Chinese manufacturing PMI. “Concerns over China’s economy and financial system aren’t likely to be allayed for some weeks, with press reports indicating substantial tolerance of further corporate defaults and the squeeze on spec yuan longs not complete. We are thus still short AUD/USD though the broad range should remain intact at least early in the week: support at the 55 day moving average of 0.8946, resistance at the 200dma at 0.9139”, observed analysts at Westpac Global Strategy Group.

 

AUD/USD key levels

 

The pair is now advancing 0.40% at 0.9119 with the next resistance at 0.9138 (high Mar.19) and then 0.9139 (200-d MA). On the downside, a breach of 0.9032 (low Mar.21) would target 0.9000 (psychological level) en route to 0.8995 (low Mar.20).

 

 

 


 

 

Mar 24, 2014

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USD/CAD down -0.06% on the day ahead of US Manu PMI

 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - With USD/CAD making a daily high and low at 1.1248 and 1.1206 respectively, spot is currently trading at 1.1215, down -0.06% on the day so far.

 

With a quiet economic calendar today, USD/CAD has been quite passive, and happy to range. Datawise, we have US Markit Manufacturing PMI ahead at 13:45 GMT, with expectations of a Monthly decline from 57.1 to 56.5.

 

USD/CAD technical summary

 

Daily RSI sits at 62.03, in neutral territory. Meanwhile, 2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is at 249 pips and expanding on a daily chart. 13:00-14:00 GMT was the most volatile hour of the day, judging by the average hourly movement of 15 pips over the past four weeks.

 

What are today’s USD/CAD pivot levels?

 

The daily pivot can be found at 1.1215, with support below at S1 1.1213, S2 1.1211 and S3 1.1209, and resistance above at R1 1.1217, R2 1.1219, and R3 1.1221. Further, we can see a hammer like candlestick formation on the monthly chart.

 

 

 


 

 

Mar 24, 2014

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