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USD/CAD testing 1.1100

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The USD/CAD is now deflating to the area around the key support at 1.1100 on Monday, down from overnight peaks near 1.1130.

 

USD/CAD surrenders gains

 

After bottoming out in the mid-1.09s last week, spot found the much-needed oxygen in the auspicious Payrolls numbers for the month of February, climbing to the boundaries of 1.1100 the figure in the wake of the release. Next on tap in the Canadian docket will be the Housing Starts, expected to increase at an annual pace of 190K during February. “For the time being, we expect 1.115 in USDCAD to firmly cap offers… we believe most of the USDCAD strength late last week was a classic relief rally in the USD, and mainly a function of how nervous FX investors were about a very weak US report – prior to the release of the data”, commented Stephen Gallo, European Head FX Strategy at BMO.

 

USD/CAD levels to watch

 

The pair is now up 0.04% at 1.1096 facing the next resistance at 1.1132 (high Mar.10) followed by 1.1148 (high Feb.28) and then 1.1160 (high Feb.27). On the flip side, a breach of 1.0998 (daily cloud top) would aim for 1.0955 (low Mar.6) and finally 1.0911 (low Feb.19).

 

 


 

 

Mar 10, 2014

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Session Recap: GBP underperforms in quiet trade

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - A quiet Monday session has seen major pairs in the FX market consolidating in recent ranges following Friday's nonfarm payrolls report.

 

The pound is underperforming, having fallen back below 1.6700 versus the dollar, triggering stops toward a 10-day low of 1.6625. The EUR/USD failed to hold above 1.3900 and entered a consolidation phase within 1.3860/1.3900. The USD/JPY holds above 103.00 while the AUD/USD is struggling around 0.9000.

 

There is no first-tier data scheduled during the New York session, which could see crosses extend consolidation during the next hours.

 

Main Headlines in Europe:

 

Flash: What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and Westpac

 

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence missed expectations (14) in March: 13.9

 

ECB's Noyer: Ending SMP sterilization among possible tools

 

Gold retreats around $1,340

 

Fed's Plosser expects US unemployment to fall to 6.2% by the end of 2014

 

 


 

 

Mar 10, 2014

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Carney: UK recovery picking up but BoE not growing complacent

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Further into the testimony before the UK parliament's Treasury Select Committee on Tuesday, BoE governor Mark Carney assures that his decision on the rate hike timing would not be affected by the UK general election scheduled for May 2015.

 

Moreover, Carney says he expects a pick up in investment, which is crucial for spurring growth. He emphasizes that the strengthening of the UK economic recovery is evident in recent data, Nevertheless, he admits that the decrease in unemployment has slowed down somewhat. BoE is not complacent about the UK recovery, he says. 

 

 

Meanwhile, MPC member David Miles assures that optimism among small and medium-sized firms in the UK has risen since he has joined the committee in 2009. He also adds that real wages could stop declining shortly.

 

“I think we’re getting to the point at which average wage settlements are moving above the rate of inflation,” he suggests.

 

 


 

 

Mar 11, 2014

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Gold testing 1,350 key level again

 

 

 

FXStreet (San Francisco) - After a resting day on Monday, the gold resumed its attack to the 1,350 area on Tuesday with the XAU/USD bouncing from yesterday's lows at 1,328 to test March 3, 4, 6 and 7 highs around 1,352 today.

 

The XAU/USD is currently trading around 1,345.73 0.46% positive on the day. "Gold has been trading sideways over the past ten days, and is clearly in search of new catalysts. There is a reluctance of aggressively push the market higher here considering the recent upside surprise”, commented the research team at UBS.

 

Gold levels

 

Above the 1,350 area, the gold would face resistances around 1,360 and 1,375. On the downside, the XAU/USD has supports at 1,328, 1,300 and 1,280.

 

 


 

 

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USD/CHF rejected on bullish attempts

 

 


FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/CHF has been shunned at 0.8800 and is back onto the supporting line of the sideways channel around 0.8780.

 

USD/CHF had been trying to bounce off the 2012-2014 support line at 0.8751 which represents key support. Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained, “Ideally we should see the currency pair stabilise around it but it is still in danger of giving way. Should the market stabilise here, a close above the downtrend line at 0.8897 is needed to alleviate immediate downside pressure. A daily chart close below Friday’s low at 0.8756 will target the 0.8568 October 2011 low”.

 

USD/CHF Levels

 

The 20 DMA is 0.8879, the 50 DMA is 0.8965 and the 200 DMA is 0.9138. RSI (14) reads 43.49. Supports are ascending from 0.8612, 0.8651, 0.8706 and 0.8756. Spot is 0.87879. Resistances are 0.8793, 0.8816, 0.8841 and 0.8861.

 

 


 

 

Mar 11, 2014

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AUD/USD drops to 0.9010

 


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Aussie dollar is now facing renewed selling interest, dragging the AUD/USD to the area of 0.9020/15.

 

AUD/USD capped at 0.9050

 

The pair remains in the positive ground however, following the risk trends and leaving behind poor Chinese data over the weekend and soft confidence releases from today’s NAB indices. “The close below $0.9080, which corresponds to both the 100-day moving average and the minimum retracement objective of the Aussie's slide since last October, warns of additional near-term losses. There is potential from a technical point of view back into the $0.9015-40 range. On the upside, the $0.9200 is an important psychological level and coincides with the 50% retracement objective of the slide”. 

 

AUD/USD key levels

 

The pair is now losing 0.09% at 0.9013 with the next resistance at 0.9064 (high Mar.19) followed by 0.9135 (high Mar.7) and then 0.9152 (high Dec.11). On the flip side, a breakdown of 0.9012 (low Mar.10) would open the door to 0.8973 (low Mar.6) and finally 0.8934 (low Mar.5).

 

 


 

 

Mar 11, 2014

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Flash: GBP/USD: Fresh lows, more at sight – FXStreet

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet notes that the GBP/USD broke below key 1.6600 support and as below this latter, the pair would remain vulnerable and could extend its decline to 1.6510.

 

Key Quotes

 

"Majors trade in between yesterday's ranges little changed from Tuesday update albeit dollar grinds higher mostly on sentiment: concerns over Chinese growth had been the main focus this week in absence of other economic news. What started as a rumor was finally confirmed yesterday as the country experienced its first-ever corporate debt default, and the idea of more coming is what leads the mild risk off ruling the forex board". 

 

"For weakened GBP/USD, that translates into a lower low, with the pair flirting with 1.6580 at the time being, and maintaining the bearish tone in its 4 hours chart, as 20 SMA gains bearish slope above current price and indicators turned back south after correcting oversold readings". 

 

"Price has not only accelerated below the key Fibonacci support around 1.6600, but is also breaking through its 200 EMA in the mentioned time frame, further sign of a bearish continuation: the pair will likely extend now towards 1.6550 as long as pullbacks fail to regain 1.6600, with a break below it pointing for an approach to 1.6510". 

 

"A price acceleration above 1.6610 should see price advance up to 1.6650 strong static resistance, but sellers will likely jump in around it, preventing the pair from advancing further".

 

 


 

 

Mar 12, 2014

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USD/CAD reaches 2-week highs

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD accelerated higher triggering stops and reached a 2-week high at the beginning of the American session.

 

The Loonie as other currencies link to commodities weakened Wednesday amid concerns over China and lower copper and crude oil prices. The USD/CAD broke above previous weekly highs around 1.1130, and rose to a high of 1.1153 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 1.1145 zone, recording a 0.4% gain on the day.

 

USD/CAD technical outlook

 

"Support is at 1.0955, as long as this level holds, the price action in the range could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 1.0182 (Sept 19, 2013 low), one more rise to 1.1500 area is still possible after consolidation", said Franco Shao, analyst at ForexCycle.com. "Resistance is at 1.1192, a break above this level will signal resumption of the uptrend". 

 

"However, a breakdown below 1.0955 support will indicate that the uptrend from 1.0182 had completed at 1.1224 already, then the following downward movement could bring price back to 1.0700 zone", the analyst added.

 

 


 

 

Mar 12, 2014

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EUR/USD advances trough 1.3900

 


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The single currency is rapidly appreciating vs. the greenback on Wednesday, lifting the EUR/USD to fresh weekly highs beyond 1.3900 the figure.

 

EUR/USD eyes 2014 peaks at 1.3915

 

The pair remains buoyant as the bid tone around the EUR sharpens and promises to challenge the ytd tops near 1.3920 in the very near term. The current stubbornness around the EUR plus the recent shallow retracement would allow for further gains with interim target at 1.3915 on its way to the psychological limestone at 1.4000. “Since breaking above the $1.38 nemesis last week, lifted by the ECB lack of action and extending to $1.3915 before the weekend, the euro has been consolidating… We do suspect the euro is carving out a near-term top, but its resilience warns of upside risk”, noted the research team at BBH.

 

EUR/USD levels to watch

 

The pair is now advancing 0.27% at 1.3898 and a surpass of 1.3915 (2014 high Mar.7) would target 1.400 (psychological level) en route to 1.4172 (high Oct.31 2011). On the downside, the immediate support lines up at 1.3843 (low Mar.12) ahead of 1.3834 (low Mar.11) and finally 1.3811 (23.6% of 1.3477-1.3915).

 

 


 

 

Mar 12, 2014

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GBP/USD bounces off 1-month low

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD bounced off 1-month low and erased daily losses at the beginning of the American session.

 

The GBP/USD underperformed during the European session and broke below the 1.6600 mark, triggering stops and falling to a low of 1.6568. However, bears lacked determination to take the 1.6550 support area, allowing the Cable to bounce back to neutral territory. At time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at the 1.6610 zone, virtually unchanged since opening.

 

GBP/USD technical outlook

 

"The recent slide to 1.6595 was a test of 1.6580 support zone, but the lack of a significant rebound so far signals, that the bias remains negative, for another leg downwards, to 1.6480 before major reversal", says Stoyan Mihaylov, analyst at DeltaStock.com. "Crucial intraday resistance lies at 1.6653".

 


 

 

Mar 12, 2014

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AUD lower on risk-off, catches small bounce

 

 

 


FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD caught a bounce when the pair reached 0.8920 and is trading back into the 0.8960’s.

 

Strategists at TD Securities noted that the AUD/USD risk appetite weakened yesterday as base metals prices continued to slide; “Chinese credit concerns are at play here as investors and specs worry that credit pressures could pop the bubble of trades using excess copper supplies in China as collateral. Copper is getting hammered again today and the clear loser on the session is the AUD (again), which reflected the Chinese nexus for most things Australian”.


AUD/USD Levels

 

The 20 DMA is 0.9001, the 50 DMA is 0.8924 and the 200 DMA is 0.9160. RSI (14) reads 57.66. Supports are ascending from 0.8873, 0.8891, 0.8909 and 0.8933. Spot is 0.8957 while resistances are 0.9010, 0.9055, 0.9064 and 0.9135.

 

 


 

 

Mar 12, 2014

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EUR/USD edges lower after upbeat US data

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD edged a tad lower at the begging of the American session, pulling back from 2-year highs, after data showed US jobless claims and retail sales beat consensus.

 

US jobless claims fell to 315,000 last week versus 320,000 expected, while February retail sales rose 0.3% versus 0.2% forecast, adding to the upbeat sentiment regarding the US economy and boosting the dollar. The EUR/USD pulled back after data but the dip has been contained by the 1.3935 area so far. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.3940, recording a 0.3% gain Thursday.

 

EUR/USD technical perspective

 

From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet notes that a break above 1.3966 (daily high) should lead to a continuation towards the key 1.4000 figure today. "If price however gives up below 1.3910, the risk turns to the downside and the pair may extend the bearish move down to 1.3850/70 price zone in the short term", the analyst says.

 

 


 

 

Mar 13, 2014

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GBP/USD back below 1.6700

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Better data releases from the US economy pushed the GBP/USD back bellow the 1.6700 handle on Thursday.

 

GBP/USD retreats from highs

 

The pair eased from the vicinity of weekly tops near 1.6720 to the boundaries of 1.6680 after US retail sales came in on the stronger side, advancing 0.3% inter-month in both the headline print and excluding the automobile sector. Further data showed Initial Claims dropped to 315K and import prices gained 0.9% in February. “The GBP reportedly remain a victim of EUR-GBP plays on Wednesday and if the 1.6600 region is breached, expect further soul searching towards the 55-day MA (1.6541)”, observed Emmanuel Ng, Strategist at OCBC Bank.

 

GBP/USD levels to watch

 

As of writing the pair is up 0.41% at 1.6687 with the next resistance at 1.6700 (psychological level) followed by 1.6745 (high Mar.10) and then 1.6785 (high Mar.7). On the flip side, a breach of 1.6607 (low Mar.13) would clear the way to 1.6568 (low Mar.12) and finally 1.6500 (psychological level).

 

 


 

 

Mar 13, 2014

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EMEA EM Express: Markets closely watching situation in Ukraine ahead of Crimea vote

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Concerns over Ukraine´s capacity for exports in the face of a possible escalation of the conflict with Russia, prices of wheat and corn surged for the third running day. Ukraine is the third largest exporter of corn and the sixth largest exporter of wheat, so grain traders observe the developments in the country closely, for signs of any disruptions in the shipments. Up until today no such problems have been noted. 

 

Yesterday EU leaders outlined possible sanctions against Russia, including travel bans and asset freezes, which would be imposed if the referendum on Crimea was carried out against international opposition. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that they would come into force on Monday if Russia still refused to negotiate. 

 

In the afternoon US President Barack Obama met with Ukrainian PM Arseny Yatseniuk in the White House to discuss ways of handling the situation in Crimea peacefully. Yatseniuk expressed his readiness to hold talks with Moscow on “how to increase the rights of (the) autonomous republic of Crimea, starting with taxes and ending with other aspects like language issues." 

 

Economic data

 

On Thursday, South Africa´s Statistics Head Office informed that on an annual basis Manufacturing Production rose by 2.5% in January, down from the 2.8% increase the previous month. 

 

On Wednesday South Africa also published current account numbers for the fourth quarter of 2014. The year-on-year seasonally adjusted data was better than forecast showing a 5.1% GDP deficit, up from the 6.4% GDP gap in the previous quarter. Therefore, the current account defict for the entire 2013 stands now at 5.8% of GDP.

 

In the opinion of Dorothee Gasser from ING: “All in all the release is rather a positive, but it may be early stages to pin down South Africa for a sustained c/a improvement for 2014 following the 4Q13 release.”

 

“Trade dynamics remained unsupportive (import growth still outpacing exports) and the outlook for metal prices remain clouded by the Chinese landing scenario. South Africa external funding will in absolute terms remain large in the year ahead, inducing volatility risks still for the ZAR over the period.” 

 

Meanwhile, according to data released on Thursday, Russia´s Central Bank reserves were seen at 494.60B on March 7 following 493.30B the week before. 

 

Technicals

 

Russia´s stock market and the ruble are suffering under the weight of the Ukranian crisis. The Micex Index (INDEXCF) fell by 2.6% to 1,274.21 at the Moscow close on Wednesday, while the ruble dropped for the fourth day against the central bank’s dollar-euro basket. Meanwhile, USD/RUB closed at 36.43 on Wednesday.

 

The daily FXStreet Trend Index for USD/RUB was slightly bullish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was neutral at 71.3974 at the last close. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was expanding at 205 pips, with ATR (14) shrinking at 303 pips. The 1D 200 SMA is at 33.1891, while the 1D 20 EMA at 35.8931.

 

The USD/UAH closed at 9.28 and its daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was neutral at 52.6767.

 

 


 

 

Mar 13, 2014

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USD/JPY hits fresh lows after US data

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY extended losses and retested March lows at the beginning of the New York session after data showed US producer prices declined in February.

 

US producer prices fell 0.1% last month and advanced 0.9% over the last twelve months, missing expectations of 0.2% and 1.2% respectively. Core prices, which strips the food and energy costs, fell 0.2% on a monthly basis and rose at an annual pace of 1.1%. The USD/JPY hit a low of 101.20 and it was last at 101.30, recording a 0.5% loss on the day.

 

The pair came under pressure this week amid market anxiety about Russia and Ukraine, pulling back from a post nonfarm payrolls high of 103.75.

 

USD/JPY technical levels

 

In terms of technical levels, if the USD/JPY breaks below 101.20, next supports are seen at 101.00 (psychological level) and 100.75 (Feb 4 low). On the flip side, resistances could be found at 101.87 (Mar 14 high), 102.13 (100-day SMA) and 102.85 (Mar 13 high).

 

 


 

 

Mar 14, 2014

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Flash: Draghi reveals a euro target – HSBC

 

 

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Strategists at HSBC sight 1.40 as a soft target and 1.45 as a hard target, noting that the ECB stepped up its rhetoric when the euro was about to breach 1.40.

 

Key Quotes:

 

“This is no freak of nature. This deliberate stance is because the ECB

needs to stop a move to 1.45 and beyond that could cause it to miss its

mandate”. 

 

“Draghi has admitted that the EUR is becoming "increasingly relevant" in the central bank's assessment of price stability, but also argues that the ECB does not target the exchange rate. However, this stance is slowly being unpicked especially as the move has been slow and volatility is not a factor. The secret is being revealed -- the level matters. If the EUR continues to rise, it threatens their mandate and on this basis it's open season”.

 


“ The ECB's mandate is inflation close to, but below, 2%. The current staff

forecasts suggest inflation will be back to 1.7% by Q4 16 -- in line with the ECB's mandate. Hence the ECB is not worried about disinflation”.

 

“Importantly this assumes an unchanged exchange rate, or around 1.36 on

EUR/USD. Now the question is -- what would the exchange rate have to move

to make them worry about missing their inflation target?”.

 

“Draghi said each 10% permanent effective exchange rate appreciation lowers inflation by around 40 to 50 basis points. Realistically, any exchange rate move would likely have to point to inflation being sub-1.5% for it to be worthy of

action. So what exchange rate level would get inflation from their 1.7%

forecast to below 1.5%?”.

 

“Using the ECB's ready reckoner, it would point to a pain threshold of 1.45. Most likely, the ECB recognises that were EUR to gain a foothold above 1.40, it could easily push on to 1.45. Better to draw the line at 1.40 than wait for 1.45”.

 

 


 

 

Mar 14, 2014

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Gold finishing up at highs for the week

 

 

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Gold is finishing up through $1,380 and strategists at TD Securities noted the rally extended further this week and the rally is starting to put some important resistance levels under a little more pressure. 

 

“Pullback resistance off the May 2012 low/August 2013 high at 1393.30 may be tested next week and, just above there, the August 2013 high (and potential double bottom trigger) at 1433 looms very large. So far since gold stabilized last year, the market has failed to make a new, major cycle high sop gains through the low 1400 area would be technically significant. Trend momentum favours more gains, suggesting that the 1400 area is likely to be tested sooner rather than later. Key support now is 1320; the rally will unravel very quickly below there”.

 

 


 

 

Mar 14, 2014

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Flash: Risk in the form of the referendum in Crimea - BBH

 

 

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman noted that the weekend poses risk in the form of the referendum in Crimea.

 

Key Quotes:


"The weekend poses risk in the form of the referendum in Crimea, where the choice is between leaving the Ukraine and joining Russia. The Crimean parliament has already approved independence."

 

"Of course, much of Europe, the US and Japan have warned that they do not recognize the referendum. China may be quiet on the issue, and strategically, why not? From the point of its own domestic interest, China could not accept the legitimacy of a referendum by one of its minority populations (e.g. Tibet or Taiwan) from seeking independence."

 


 

 

Mar 15, 2014

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