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Flash: GBP/USD eyes on 1.6260 - Investec

 

 


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec is watching for a GBP/USD close below 1.6280 today for a sign of further downside ahead.

 

Key Quotes

 

"GBP/USD has remained somewhat subdued since Governor Carney spoke over a week ago, talking down the need for rate rises and implying that Sterling is too strong. UK GDP last week failed to rouse further enthusiasm coming out in line with consensus at 0.7%, and slightly below more optimistic economists’ forecasts of 0.8%. Overnight we had more disappointing Chinese data and subsequently GBP/USD opens in the low 1.64s."

 

"At this point a close through the key 1.6260 technical level could signify further downward movement in GBP/USD. The likelihood of this happening is strengthened by the Fed's decision last week to continue to taper it's QE program by a further 10b USD, helping to add to USD strength amidst jitters in equities and emerging markets."

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Feb 03, 2014

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Flash: Short term USD/JPY long offers poor risk-reward - Societe Generale

 

 


 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale comments that he is surprised the yen isn’t stronger this morning, as the Nikkei slides again. 

 

Key Quotes


“The NKY/JPY correlation is driven by the currency, not by the equity market, but even so yen shorts could be squeezed out if the equity market sell-off goes much further.” 

 

“Short-term, USD/JPY longs are poor risk-reward while EUR/JPY in particular is showing signs of breaking lower.”

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Feb 03, 2014

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AUD/USD rallies strongly on expectations of less dovish RBA

 

 


 

 

FXStreet (London) - AUD/USD has rallied strongly ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision and accompanying statement tomorrow. AUD bullishness comes despite China slowdown concerns and subdued risk appetite.

 

EM worries damp AUD demand

 

The Aussie dollar had been under pressure thanks to emerging market volatility and contagion worries dragging on risk appetite demand for the higher-yielding currency.

 

In addition, weakening Chinese data has raised concerns over commodity demand. Tightening of policy from the Communist Party has weighed on manufacturing and ramped up money market rates.

 

Rising inflation cuts further RBA rate cut bets

 

Though the RBA will almost certainly hold rates tomorrow, expectations are for a less dovish RBA. A weaker AUD has translated into accelerating inflation, making it less likely that the central bank will move to cut rates further. Markets will be focussed on the tone of the language in the statement accompanying the rate announcement and for concern over AUD weakness feeding into further inflation.

 

AUD/USD is currently trading at USD0.8802 on an unbroken rally though from a session low of USD0.8738, up 0.46 percent.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Feb 03, 2014

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EUR/USD fails to hold above 1.3500

 

 


 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - After reaching fresh day highs in the wake of above expectations Eurozone PMI's, the EUR/USD lost strength and pulled back below the 1.3500 mark as investors await the US PMI figures.

 

The EUR/USD peaked at 1.3518 but failed to hold above the psychological level and slid to the 1.3490 zone, where it is trading at time of writing, still a few pips above its opening price. The EUR/USD hit a fresh 2-month low of 1.3476 during the European trade, weighed by the risk off sentiment and cautious ahead this week's ECB decision after reports suggested the central bank could stop sterilizing its bond purchases.

 

EUR/USD technical levels

 

On the upside, immediate resistances for EUR/USD line up at 1.3518 (Feb 3 high), 1.3530 (50-hour SMA) and 1.3570 (Jan 31 high) ahead of 1.3600 (psychological level). On the downside, supports are seen at 1.3476 (Feb 3 low), 1.3460 (Nov 22 low) and 1.3415 (Nov 20 low).

 

 

 

 


 

 

Feb 03, 2014

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Flash: Inflation expectations and political stability positive for USD/JPY - Nomura

 

 


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Yujiro Goto, FX Strategist at Nomura notes that bond investors’ inflation expectations for one year and two years increased in January and sees low yields and political stability as positive for USD/JPY.

 

Key Quotes 

 

“One-year inflation expectations reached 1.72%, the highest since July 2004 when the data series began, from 1.54% in December. Two-year expectations also inched up to 1.66% from 1.62%. 10-year inflation expectations fell to 1.44% from 1.45% though. Recent positive inflation surprises are likely to have influenced expectations in the bond market, especially short-term inflation expectations.”

 

“Real JGB yields, based on inflation expectations from the bond investor survey, all remain negative from one to 10 years. As US yields fell in January, in nominal and real terms, the real yield difference between the US and Japan shrank a bit. Weak NFP and risk-offs, due to higher volatility in the EM market, depressed US yields in January. However, we expect the yield difference between the US and Japan to widen again, as the Fed keeps normalizing its quantitative easing policy.” 

 

“Separately, over the weekend, many local media reported that ex-Health Minister Yoichi Masuzoe is still the frontrunner of the Tokyo Governor election on 9 February. Most media report that Mr Morihiro Hosokawa, who is backed by ex-PM Junichiro Koizumi and is arguing for nuclear generation to be ended immediately, remains in second to third place (Nikkei). Thus, the Tokyo Governor election is likely to be a positive result for the Abe cabinet, which is regarded as positive for the Nikkei and USD/JPY.” 

 

“While USD/JPY has traded weakly recently, low real yields and the stable political situation in Japan remain positive for USD/JPY in the medium term.”

 

 

 

 


 

 

Feb 03, 2014

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NZD/USD continues bullish momentum

 

 


 

 

FXStreet (London) - NZD/USD has rallied strongly through the day, regaining a large percentage of its recent losses.

 

NZD given support by AUD bullishness

 

The Kiwi has benefitted for the strong AUD bullish trend through the day on a changed stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The RBA held rates overnight in its monthly rate decision, but the accompanying statement dropped any reference to the AUD being over valued.

 

The Kiwi dollar had been under bearish pressure through last week on emerging market concerns. Concerns over EM exposure to tightening USD conditions as the Fed continued on its trajectory of quantitative easing tapering knocked risk appetite, putting pressure on higher-yielding currencies.

 

March rate hike expectations

 

Fourth quarter unemployment numbers due out at 21:45 GMT should help to confirm expectations of a March rate hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Consensus expectations are for a decline from 6.2 percent to 6.0 percent. RBNZ governor Graeme Wheeler last week said that the Kiwi economy is growing too fast to constrain inflation. He has signaled that he will move to hike rates from the current 2.5 percent level at the March meeting and confirmation of declining unemployment will give Wheeler further breathing space to hike rates and rein in the NZ economy.


NZD/USD is currently trading at USD0.8172, climbing 1.32 percent on the session.

 

 

 

 


 

 

Feb 04, 2014

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EUR/USD is facing headwinds mid point

 

 


 

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/USD fell sharply from above 1.3550 to the lows in the 1.3480 territory and since has been drifting and grinding back to the mid point of the drop.

 

Meanwhile, markets are looking ahead to data this week, after a disappointing ISM manufacturing from the US, Factory Orders were slightly positive giving a boost to the dollar. Later this week, we will have Non Farm Payrolls of course, but in the mean time we look forward to the ECB coming up. Strategists at TD Securities said that they look for the ECB to keep the refi rate and deposit rate unchanged at this week’s meeting, despite the downside surprise to January inflation. “We don’t think that it would have been enough to derail the ECB’s belief in the continuing recovery in growth, and eventually inflation”.

 

EUR/USD Levels

 

The 20 DMA is 1.3609, the 50 DMA is 1.3648 and the 200 DMA is 1.3376. RSI (14) reads 48.45. Supports are ascending from 1.3390, 1.3417, 1.3463, 1.3477. Spot is 1.3509 while resistances are 1.3544, 1.3574, 1.3590 and 1.3605.

 

 

 

 


 

 

Feb 04, 2014

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USD/CAD a continuation of the bearish trend?

 

 


 

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/CAD is easing back losses creating a bearish looking continuation at 1.1070 currently.

 

Strategists at TD Securities said “USDCAD’s bearish key reversal day Friday remains the salient feature of the daily chart, With spot trending below steep, daily trend channel support, the odds of a correction, perhaps only short-lived but possibly quite sharp, remain alive. New highs are needed—soon—to reinvigorate the underlying bull trend and stave off retracement pressure”. From the calendar today the dollar has had a little life from factor orders against what was a disappointing ISM Manufacturing number yesterday. The week ahead comes with Non Farm Payrolls which markets are expected to start positioning ahead of.

 

USD/CAD Levels


The 20 DMA is 1.0999, the 50 DMA is 1.0778 and the 200 DMA is 1.0460. RSI (14) 48.45. Supports are 1.0953, 1.0992, 1.1019. Spot is 1.1070 while resistances are 1.1110, 1.1135, 1.1225, 1.1300 and 1.1349.

 

 

 

 


 

 

Feb 04, 2014

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USD/JPY falls as ADP came below expectations

 

 


 

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The USD/JPY is trading below the 101.00 mark again following the weaker than expected ADP employment report. The pair has fallen around 40 pips in the latest few minutes to trade at 100.85.

 

The US dollar to Japanese Yen exchange rate is currently performing 0.80% negative in the day. The short term perspective is slightly bearish according to the FXStreet trend index in the 15-minute chart.

 

The US ADP employment report shows a increase of 175K new payrolls in the private sector in January. However it means a slowdown from December reading of 227K.

 

USD/JPY technical outlook

 

"Allow one more upswing towards 101.94 resistance area before renewal of the general downtrend through 100.70, en route to 99.00 support zone", commented Stoyan Mihaylov, analyst at DeltaStock.com.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Feb 05, 2014

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GBP/USD shaken on employment numbers

 


 

 

The Sterling reached a fresh low since December against the US Dollar at 1.6250 following the weaker than expected ADP numbers. 

 

After data release, the GBP/USD broke 1.6260 area to reach fresh low since December 17 at 1.6350; however the pair bounced to price at 1.6285. Now it is trading at 1.6270. 0.35% negative on the day. 

 

GBP/USD sentiment

 

The short term perspective is, however, slightly bullish now according to the FXStreet trend index in the 15-minute chart. Momentum is pointing to the north while the CCI is bearish and Stochastic and MACD are neutral. 

 

Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst notes that GBP/USD “recovery above 1.6300 may see the pair attempt to retest the 1.6340 resistance, albeit only steady gains above 1.6360 should signal a bullish continuation eyeing then 1.6410 price zone.”

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Feb 05, 2014

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GBP/USD agitado por los números de empleo

 


 

 

 

FXStreet (San Francisco) - La libra esterlina alcanzó un nuevo mínimo desde diciembre contra el dólar de EE.UU. en 1.6250 siguiendo el número de ADP más débil de lo esperado.

 

Después de la publicación de datos, el GBP/USD rompió la zona 1.6260 para llegar a nuevo mínimo desde el 17 de diciembre en 1.6350; sin embargo, el par rebotó hasta el precio de 1.6285. Ahora se cotiza a 1.6270. 0.35% negativo en el día.


Sentimiento GBP/USD

 

La perspectiva a corto plazo es, sin embargo, ligeramente alcista ahora de acuerdo con el índice de tendencia de FXStreet en el gráfico de 15 minutos. Momentum está apuntando hacia el norte, mientras que el CCI es bajista y el estocástico y el MACD son neutrales.

 

Valeria Bednarik, analista jefe FXStreet señala que la recuperación del GBP/USD "por encima de 1.6300 puede animar el intento para volver a probar la resistencia de 1.6340, aunque sólo ganancias constantes por encima de 1.6360 señalaría una continuación alcista mirando luego 1.6410."

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Feb 05, 2014

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EUR/USD soars to 1.3600 on Draghi


 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD reversed intraday losses and soared to fresh weekly highs as Draghi announces no new action.

 

ECB President said at a press conference that the bank continues to monitor money markets closely and it is determined to take decisive action if required, but didn't announce any new policy at the moment. Draghi downplayed suspension of SMP sterilization and said inflation expectation remain firmly anchored.

 

The EUR/USD rallied to a high of 1.3600 although it found resistance at the psychological level and pulled back to 1.3585, where it is recording a 0.4% gain on the day.

 

EUR/USD levels to watch

 

In terms of technical levels, next resistances could be found at 1.3600 (psychological level), 1.3630 (55-day SMA) and 1.3665 (Jan 30 high). On the flip side, supports are now seen at 1.3540 (former resistance), 1.3476 (Feb 3 low) and 1.3460 (Nov 22 low).

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Feb 06, 2014

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Flash: USD/CAD is holding in a range – TD Securities


 

 

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Strategists at TD Securities noted the price action around the USD/CAD.

 

Key Quotes:

 

“On the one hand, USD dips to noted technical support just below 1.1050 continues to draw out bargain hunters. On the other, the USD really can’t hold a bid above 1.11 for the moment”. 

 

“The overall undertone here remains consolidative but we are not—yet—convinced that USD/CAD has established a firm base from which the broader uptrend can start to advance again. On the data front today, we are looking for mixed data for the CAD—weaker trade which would be a negative, considering the BoC’s focus on Canada’s lost competitiveness, but better Ivey PMI data (a volatile series but the market may pay attention to a strong rebound from the prior month’s drop back under 50”). 

 

“Technically, we still think the short-term bias is lower—a break under 1.1042 should confirm—for a drop back to the high 1.09s. Resistance is 1.1125 (above here targets 1.12 again)”.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Feb 06, 2014

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USD/CAD surges on Canadian trade balance numbers


 

 

 

FXStreet (London) - USD/CAD jumped today on a wider-than-expected Canadian trade deficit numbers for December. Data released by Statistics Canada showed that the deficit had widened to CAD1.66bn. The Figure represents the biggest deficit since November 2012.

 

Statistics Canada also revised November’s trade deficit upwards to CAD1.53bn.

 

Consensus expectations were for a decline to CAD650bn for the month.

 

Import prices rose 1.6 percent, aided by CAD weakness, while volumes fell 0.4 percent. Export volumes rose by 0.8 percent with prices rising 0.1 percent.

 

USD/CAD traded sideways leading up to the announcement, with a session low of CAD1.1052 before surging to CAD1.1115 on the announcement up 0.3 percent on the session. The pair remains in bullish territory.

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Feb 06, 2014

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US: Average Hourly Earnings up 0.2% in January


 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The US Average Hourly Earnings increased by 0.2% in January, after remaining unchanged in December, the US Department of Labor reported today. This result is in line with forecasts. On an annual basis Average Hourly Earnings rose by 1.9%, after growing 1.8%. 

 

Average Weekly Hours climbed to 34.5 from 34.4, against expectations of remaining at 34.5. 

 

US NFP grew by 169K in August.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Feb 07, 2014

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EUR/USD retraces nonfarm payrolls gains


 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The rally of the EUR/USD ignited by disappointing US nonfarm payrolls figures faded at the 1.3640 area as Fed has said it will look past this data since they feel it is heavily impacted by weather. 

 

With weak employment data not translating into Fed policy action, the USD weakness was short-lived and the EUR/USD returned to the 1.3590 area, just where it was minutes before the release, nearly flat on the day. however, the EUR/USD remains on track to close the week into the green after the ECB refrained from taking policy actions yesterday.

 

EUR/USD technical levels

 

As for technical levels, immediate resistances line up at 1.3642 (Feb 7 high/50-day SMA), 1.3664 (Jan 30 high) and 1.3700 (psychological level). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.3551 (Feb 7 low), 1.3500 (psychological level) and 1.3476 (Feb 3 low).

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Feb 07, 2014

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UK: NIESR GDP Estimate up 0.8% in January


 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The UK NIESR GDP Estimate was at +0.8% in January, following a 0.7% rise in December, according to data released today by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Feb 07, 2014

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GBP/USD reaches 1.6400 after UK GDP estimate


 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Even though USD weakness after nonfarm payrolls was short lived, the GBP/USD received a fresh boost from UK GDP estimate and reached fresh daily highs. 

 

The UK economy grew 0.8% in quarter ended in January, according to data provided by NIESR following 0.7% growth in the quarters ended in December, November and October. The GBP/USD rose to marginal new high of 1.6399 but lacked momentum to break decisively above the 1.6400 mark. 

 

GBP/USD levels to watch

 

At time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at the 1.6385 zone, recording a 0.4% gain on the day. In terms of technical levels, immediate resistances line up at 1.6400 (psychological level) and 1.6440 (20-day SMA). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.6300 (psychological level), 1.6272 (Feb 6 low) and 1.6248 (100-day SMA).

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Feb 07, 2014

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Flash: GBP could suffer ahead of BoE's QIR - Investec


 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec, observed that the BoE's Quarterly Inflation Report due on Wednesday will be crucial for the GBP.

 

Key Quotes

 

"In the aftermath of Friday's weaker US jobs data we saw US dollar selling across the board before some bounce back - notably in USDJPY, quickly reclaiming a 102 handle after trying twice below 101.50. EURUSD steadied in the low 1.36s and GBPUSD has well and truly bounced from the 1.6260 support to reclaim a birth at 1.64 and open up for a retest higher - that support level is now even more important for the pair and when we break below it will likely see considerable momentum, which could drag GBPUSD close to 1.6000."

 

"A potential catalyst for a GBPUSD move lower this week is the Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report on Wednesday. Many economists expect Governor Mark Carney to change the current forward guidance rhetoric and potentially lower the knockout criteria for a review on policy, since the UK unemployment rate has fallen more sharply than expected."

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Feb 10, 2014

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Flash: The lack of faith in EUR/USD keeps fueling it - FXStreet


 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Goncalo Moreira CMT, FXStreet Technical Analyst notes that weak shorts were forced to cover with poor US employment figures coming out on Friday, thwarting any near-term attempt to get EUR/USD below 1.35 on a sustained basis.

 

Key Quotes

 

“As every week, we asked our dedicated contributors for their views on the FX market and the polled results reflect an increasing bullish mood in the short-term prognosis the highest number in eight weeks. Bears show the opposite behavior and reached the lower level in eight weeks as well. Both are coincident at 45% of the poll.”

 

“As far as the one-month view concerns, it's the bearish mood which dominates 80% of the poll participants, and in the larger three-month horizon a less vibrant curve shows bearishness oscillating in the 60-70% range since November. In the most recent survey, only 20% of the participants has a positive euro outlook in this time horizon with all central tendency measures printing around 1.3300.”

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Feb 10, 2014

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USD/CAD hits fresh highs after Canadian housing data


 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD rose to marginal new highs during the American session after data showed Canadian housing starts fell in January.

 

Canada's housing starts dropped 3.7% to 180,248 annual rate in January, missing expectations of 180,500. The USD/CAD climbed to a high of 1.1049 but lacked follow-through. At time of writing, the USD/CAD is trading at the 1.1045 zone, up 0.1% on the day. 


USD/CAD levels to watch

 

In terms of technical levels, the USD/CAD could find immediate resistances at 1.1049/54 (Feb 10 high/20-day SMA), 1.1063 (100-hour SMA) and 1.1078 (Feb 7 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.1018 (Feb 10 low), 1.1000 (psychological level) and 1.0967 (Feb 7 low).

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Feb 10, 2014

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