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USD/CHF U-turned sub the 0.91 handle and some


 

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (Guatemala) - USD/CHF has caught some on the wrong side of the market, smashing through the 0.91 handle post the knee jerk reaction to the ADP employment report which has been the highlight on todays calendar.

 

The ADP employment report showed the US private sector added 238,000 new jobs in December, beating forecast of 200,000. Meanwhile, November ADP jobs number was revised up 14,000 to 229,000. The news took the unit on a spike of some 25 pips higher off the 0.91 handle but was soon hit by supply by the commitment of the bears and stops were run down to 0.9082, taking the pair all the way back to where we had started off today. Meanwhile, all eyes are going to be on the FOMC Minutes coming up. We are looking forward to knowing how unanimous the taper move was. It will be interesting to know how the spread of opinions and reservations around this move were which should give us an idea on what it would take for the FOMC to actually consider upping or slowing the pace of taper. 

 

USD/CHF Levels

 

The 20 DMA is 0.8945, the 50 DMA is 0.9028 and the 200 DMA is 0.9247. RSI (14) reads 42.2. Supports are ascending from 0.9021, 0.9038, 0.9052, 0.9068. Spot is currently 0.9085 while resistances are 0.9110, 0.9131, 0.9150 and 0.9165.

 

 


 

 

Jan 08, 2014

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EUR/GBP falls to 1-month lows


 

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The EUR/GBP has extended its decline during the American session to score fresh 1-month lows.

 

The EUR/GBP extended its decline into a second day Wednesday despite strong Eurozone data and fell to its lowest level in over a month at 0.8254 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair continues to trade at daily lows, recording a 0.5% loss on the day.

 

EUR/GBP technical levels

 

In terms of technical levels, the EUR/GBP could find immediate supports at 0.8254 (daily low), 0.8251 (Dec 2 low) and 0.8202 (Jan 11 2013 low). On the flip side, resistances are seen at 0.8316 (daily high), 0.8332 (Jan 6 high) and 0.8355 (21-day SMA).

 

 


 

 

Jan 08, 2014

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Canada: New Housing Price Index flat in November


 

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The New Housing Price Index (NHPI) was unchanged in November following a 0.1% advance in October, Statistics Canada reported Thursday. This reading missed expectations of a 0.1% increase.

 

On a year-over-year basis, the NHPI rose 1.4% in the 12 months to November. The pace of annual growth in new housing prices has been steadily slowing since August.

 

 

 


 

 

Jan 09, 2014

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Draghi: ECB prepared to take further decisive action if needed


 

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (Łódź) - As expected, the ECB Governing Council decided to keep rates unchanged in January, after reducing the main interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.25% in November.

 

During his first press conference of the year, ECB head Mario Draghi reiterated the central bank's forward guidance of keeping interest rates at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. 

 

The ECB head stated that inflation should remain low in the upcoming months, before gradually returning to the ECB's target level of 2%. Therefore, the monetary policy stance would be kept accommodative for as long as necessary and the central bank would be ready to consider all the available instruments. “Further decisive action” would be taken if needed. 

 

Mario Draghi pointed to the improvement in recent economic indicators suggesting a gradually progressing recovery in the Eurozone. He acknowledged however the high unemployment and weak loan dynamics.

 

During the Q&A part of the press conference the ECB head signaled that the Governing Council discussed all possible instruments, although he declined to speculate on which specifically could be used. 

 

The ECB would act should a tightening of money markets occur or in case of a weakened inflation outlook, he said.

 

 


 

 

Jan 09, 2014

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USD/CAD continues bullish momentum


 

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (London) - USD/CAD continues to climb in advance of tomorrow’s US non-farm payroll statistics and continuing broad USD/CAD momentum.

 

Canadian housing stabilising

 

Data released earlier today showed weaker-than-expected Canadian housing stats, which may assuage some concerns over the expansion of Canada’s housing marked.

 

The report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp showed a drop in the seasonally-adjusted annualised rate of housing starts to 189,672 units in December from an upwardly-revised 197,797 the previous month. The figures fell a little beyond consensus expectations of a 190k and included a 6.7 percent drop in new build permits.

 

USD/CAD focus now on non-farm payrolls

 

Focus is now on tomorrow’s US non-farm payroll statistics. Strong ADP numbers earlier this week support another ~200k print adding to expectation of a continuing US recovery.

 

USD/CAD has gained 2.04 on the week so far, with Canadian inflation expectations drawing down the CAD – inflation is currently running at 0.9 percent, far short of the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent inflation target. 

 

USD/CAD is currently trading at CAD1.0852, up 0.25 percent on the day from an opening price of CAD1.0827.

 

 

 


 

 

Jan 09, 2014

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Flash: AUD/USD range bound?


 

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (London) - Emmanuel Ng said they continue to see the AUD/USD drifting in tandem with global undercurrents pending further cues out of China for example. 

 

Key Quote:

 

“Expect 0.8900 to remain as a near term locus within the recent 0.8820-0.9000 range”.

 

 

 


 

 

Jan 09, 2014

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Flash: JPY weakness expected by Japanese investors - Nomura


 

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Nomura strategist Yujiro Goto comments that he does not judge that the recent slowdown in foreign bond investment suggests Japanese investors have become pessimistic about JPY weakness remaining. 

 

Key Quotes

 

“In fact, our latest client survey at our seminar in Tokyo suggests that about 80% of Japanese investors expect USD/JPY to trade around 110 or above by end-2014.” 

 

“Expectations for JPY weakness remain strong among Japanese investors, and we expect them to gradually increase foreign bond investment this year.” 

 

“The gradual widening in the yield differential between the US and Japan also encourage them to invest in foreign bonds.”

 

 

 


 

 

Jan 10, 2014

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Flash: EUR/USD positioned for healthy Non Farm Payrolls - BMO Capital Markets


 

 

 

 

Stephen Gallo, European Head of Currency Strategy at BMO Capital Markets feels that in EUR/USD and GBP/USD, the market is already modestly positioned for a healthy set of numbers out of the US today. 

 

Key Quotes

 

“With this in mind, we suspect that there will be a decent amount of ‘pain’ on the topside in both of those pairs, should the report be rather weak.” 

 

“The cautiously ‘dovish’ tone in the latest FOMC minutes should also add weight to the USD in this instance.“

 

“We think the chances of a weekly close in EUR/USD around 1.3650 are high if this is the case. GBP/USD should just about fully track EUR/USD higher under this scenario, towards 1.6480.”

 

 

 


 

 

Jan 10, 2014

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USD/JPY bullish momentum continues ahead of non-farm payrolls


 

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (London) - USD/JPY continues with its bullish momentum ahead of US non-farm payroll numbers due out later today.

 

While the non-farm payroll numbers are a key short-term driver of the pair, the biggest directional driver remains the diverging monetary policy expectations between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. 

 

Non-farm payroll optimism

 

Market consensus is bullish on the non-farm payroll print at 13:30 GMT, with expectations for recent momentum to continue as part of a strengthening US economic outlook. While consensus expectations are at 196k, non-farm Friday exuberance has begun pointing to a higher print. With consensus expectations high, the downside risks are ramped up for any miss.

 

Longer-term, the bullish momentum trade that has carried the USD/JPY pair since the Fed’s 18 December meeting remains in place. While The Fed is expected to continue to taper its monthly asset purchases – currently standing at USD75bn a month – Japan remains firmly committed to monetary expansion, buying up a current JPY7 trillion of bonds a month. Japanese officials have indicated that they are prepared to increase bond purchases in a fight against deflationary pressures.

 

Strong print will carry momentum

 

USD/JPY currently stands at a near-session high of JPY105.0155, up 0.15 percent on the day from an opening of JPY104.8255. Given already optimistic expectations, a strong non-farm payroll print may not be enough to challenge the three-and-a-half year highs recorded last week at JPY105.4415, but it will help maintain bullish USD/JPY momentum.

 

 

 

 


 

 

Jan 10, 2014

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USD/JPY bullish momentum continues ahead of non-farm payrolls


 

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (London) - USD/JPY continues with its bullish momentum ahead of US non-farm payroll numbers due out later today.

 

While the non-farm payroll numbers are a key short-term driver of the pair, the biggest directional driver remains the diverging monetary policy expectations between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. 

 

Non-farm payroll optimism

 

Market consensus is bullish on the non-farm payroll print at 13:30 GMT, with expectations for recent momentum to continue as part of a strengthening US economic outlook. While consensus expectations are at 196k, non-farm Friday exuberance has begun pointing to a higher print. With consensus expectations high, the downside risks are ramped up for any miss.

 

Longer-term, the bullish momentum trade that has carried the USD/JPY pair since the Fed’s 18 December meeting remains in place. While The Fed is expected to continue to taper its monthly asset purchases – currently standing at USD75bn a month – Japan remains firmly committed to monetary expansion, buying up a current JPY7 trillion of bonds a month. Japanese officials have indicated that they are prepared to increase bond purchases in a fight against deflationary pressures.

 

Strong print will carry momentum

 

USD/JPY currently stands at a near-session high of JPY105.0155, up 0.15 percent on the day from an opening of JPY104.8255. Given already optimistic expectations, a strong non-farm payroll print may not be enough to challenge the three-and-a-half year highs recorded last week at JPY105.4415, but it will help maintain bullish USD/JPY momentum.

 

 

 

 


 

 

Jan 10, 2014

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GBP/USD recovers losses following Non Farm Payrolls crash


 

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - GBP/USD has performed a U-Turn today, recovering its earlier losses following the awful Non Farm Payrolls reading.

 

GBP/USD retraces decline following Non Farm Payrolls

 

Having declined sharply to post a low at 1.6379, in the aftermath of soft Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data, GBP/USD has recovered most of its losses following an abysmal Non Farm Payrolls reading which registered at 74k, against expectations of 196k, and 241k (revised) previous. Interestingly however, the US Unemployment rate declined to 6.7% from 7%. Spot is presently trading at 1.6460, close to its daily high at 1.6484.

 

What are today´s key GBP/USD technicals?

 

Hourly RSI sits at 53, with ADX at 36. The daily pivot point can be found at 1.6474, with support at 1.6448 (S1) and resistance at 1.6505 (R1). The hourly 200 SMA sits at 1.6463, alongside the daily 20 EMA at 1.6414.

 

 

 

 


 

 

Jan 10, 2014

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US: NIESR GDP Estimate up 0.7% in December


 

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The US NIESR GDP Estimate increased 0.7% in over the 3 months up to December, following a 0.8% rise registered over the 3 months up to November, according to data released today by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

 

 

 

 


 

 

Jan 10, 2014

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Flash:


 

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank notes that EUR/USD is in line with current CTFC positioning heading into the week.

 

Key Quotes

 

"The EUR/USD pushed higher on Friday in the wake of the disappointing US nonfarm numbers and despite the dovish overtones from the ECB on Thursday." 

 

"Meanwhile, any further positive news flow from the periphery this week may however discourage excessive downside probes." 

 

"In the near term, the 1.3700 resistance may hold while key psychological support at the 55-day MA (1.3614) remains in play." 

 

"Our current view on the pair is also in line with the latest CFTC positioning numbers, with marginal net EUR longs being pared in the latest week."

 

 

 

 


 

 

Jan 13, 2014

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AUD/USD driven by disappointing US data


 

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (London) - AUD/USD added to gains in the overnight session. The pair largely ignored Australian housing data and instead continued on the momentum of Friday’s weak US non-farm payroll numbers.

 

Falling in line with market expectations, November home loans gained 1.1 percent, leaving home loans up 15.3 percent on the year, with the housing sector as a whole extremely bullish on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s loose monetary policy.

 

Non-farm payrolls driving AUD/USD bullishness

 

With little to surprise the markets within Australian data, the pair was instead driven by momentum from Friday’s miss in US non-farm payroll data expectations, where just 74k jobs were added in December, after November’s upwardly revised 241k print.

 

Stevens could play down AUD levels

 

Currently trading at USD0.9036, up 0.5 percent on the session, the pair is now above the level of 12 December when RBA governor Glenn Stevens talked the AUD down, saying that “85 U.S. cents would be closer to the mark than 95 cents.” With Stevens showing in the past that he is prepared to talk down AUD strength whenever it threatens deflationary pressure, the current >USD0.9000 levels should be watched for a similar move.

 

 

 

 


 

 

Jan 13, 2014

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Flash: Dollar weaker following Non farm Payroll miss - BTMU


 

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that the dollar remained weaker overnight following weak Non Farm Payroll numbers.

 

Key Quotes

 

"The US dollar has remained weaker in the Asian trading session following the release of the weaker than expected non-farm payrolls report on Friday, with USD/JPY having fallen to an intra-day low 103.26 today from an intra-day high of 105.40 on Friday."

 

"The establishment report revealed that the US economy added only 74k jobs in December which was the lowest month of jobs gains since January 2011. There were modest upward revisions to prior months adding a further 38k jobs."

 

"As a result employment growth averaged 182k/month in 2013 which was almost exactly the same as in 2012. Employment weakness evident in December appears to have been largely driven by the negative impact of seasonably cold and harsh weather. "

 

"The number of workers who said they could not go to work due to poor weather conditions in the household survey jumped to 273k in December which was the largest amount for a December since 1977. The household survey also revealed a shaper than expected fall in the unemployment rate which declined to 6.681% in December from 6.981% in November. "


"The sharper than expected drop in the unemployment rate mainly resulted from 347k people leaving the labour force while employment increased by 143k as well. The labour force participation rate continued to decline by a further 0.2 point to 62.8%."


 

 

 


 

 

Jan 13, 2014

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Flash: USD/JPY back to 102.50? - Societe Generale


 

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale has pencilled into a pullback for USD/JPY to potentially reach 102.50.

 

Key Quotes

 

"The pattern in Q4 was for Treasury investors to sell into any signs of strength as the ‘great rotation' saw equity holdings boosted and bond holdings pared back."

 

"As I wrote on Friday, the bias from survey respondents with 10-year yields at 3% was to buy dips and chase rallies."

 

"Well, they chased the rally and with soft retails sales, well-behaved CPI ahead this week while secular stagnationists deluge us with their views, we just need to wait it out and see how far this goes."

 

"10s failed to break below 2.5% on the ‘no-taper' in October but we probably won't see the market go that far. 2.75% 10yr yields look a more realistic low between now and the next jobs number."

 

"Similarly, we are pencilling in 0.92 for AUD/USD and 102.50 (though the USD/JPY uptrend is supported by the 200-day moving average, and that's all the way back at 99.70)."

 

 

 


 

 

Jan 13, 2014

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Flash: ECB dampens Euro upside - BTMU


 

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that the ECB's forward guidance has dampened Euro upside in the near term.

 

Key Quotes

 

"The ECB’s strengthened forward guidance has likely helped dampen euro upside against the US dollar in the near-term following the release of the weaker than expected US employment report."

 

" The release on Friday as well of the weaker than expected UK manufacturing report for November has also helped to dampen pound upside against the US dollar. "

 

"The report revealed that manufacturing output growth in the UK was flat in November following a downwardly revised expansion of 0.2% in October."

 

"The pace of growth is somewhat weaker than implied by more buoyant surveys with the manufacturing PMI having remained at elevated since the summer."

 

 

 

 


 

 

Jan 13, 2014

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EU's Dijsselbloem: European banks to fully regain health by the end of 2014


 

 

 

FXstreet.com (Łódź) - Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem told Bloomberg Television today that Europe's financial institutions are expected to regain health by the end of the year, as they make efforts to repair their balance sheets, in preparation for ECB's taking over as bank supervisor. 

 

“The banks are now already, in advance, dealing with their problems: taking losses where necessary, finding new funding, strengthening their balance sheets,” Dijsselbloem stressed. “They’re not waiting for the actions of the ECB. Banks are going ahead and getting their act together, which will help strengthen the economic recovery in the euro zone.” 

 

The ECB is set to kick off its role as the Eurozone banking supervisor in November this year, as part of the banking union project.

 

 

 


 


 

 

Jan 13, 2014

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Flash: Too optimistic? GBP – Rabobank


 

 

 

FXstreet.com (Guatemala) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist for Rabobank International explained that since the end of last year, UK money rate rates have softened a little. 


Key Quotes:

 

“The tone of UK economic data recently, while still decent, has disappointed market expectations. Perhaps the market’s expectations regarding the UK recovery were becoming a little too optimistic? Market positioning suggests that sterling could be vulnerable in the coming weeks if the Bank chooses to underpin a dovish policy position”. 

 

“Next week the minutes of the January MPC meeting are due. It is possible that these could contain a discussion which could lay the groundwork for a change in the Bank’s forward guidance. The Quarterly Inflation Report will be presented on February 12”. 

 

“Based on the risk that the BoE will reinforce its dovish tone, we expect that sterling could suffer a setback in the coming weeks. That said, in view of the better economic data in the UK relative to the Eurozone, we still expect EUR/GBP to end the year moderately lower in the 0.81 region”.

 


 

 

Jan 14, 2014

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Flash: AUD/USD losses the channel - Commerzbank


 

 

 

FXstreet.com (Guatemala) - Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank said failure at 0.9042 will cast attention back to the 0.8822 mid December low. 

 

Further Quotes:

 

“Below 0.8822 will target the base of the 2 year down channel at 0.8717 and our longer term targets are found at 0.8550 en route to 0.8068”.

 


 

 

Jan 14, 2014

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EUR/USD breaks down 1.3600 following upbeat Empire State man. index


 

 

 

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The Dollar is being fueled by a stronger than expected NY Empire State manufacturing index that shows a jump in January to 12.51 pts from December figures of 2.22. It is the highest reading since May 2012. 

 

At the moment of release, the EUR/USD was testing the 1.3600 area but the upbeat data was the catalyst to send the pair down the key level and currently it is pricing around 1.3580. 

 

EUR/USD levels:

 

If the Dollar keeps its momentum and maintains the pair below the 1.3600 level, the EUR/USD would face supports at 1.3565 and 1.3550. On the upside, resistances are now at 1.3600, 1.3625 and 1.3645.

 


 

 

Jan 15, 2014

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GBP/USD slumps to 3-week lows after US data


 

 

 

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD slumped to fresh lows at the beginning of the New York session after solid US data gave the greenback a boost.

 

The NY Empire State manufacturing index soared to its highest in 20 months in January, signaling strong expansion in the sector, while December's producer price index grew in line with expectations. The GBP/USD accelerated lower, breaking decisively below the 1.6400/1.6375 area slipping to a low of 1.6327, last seen Dec 24 2013.

 

GBP/USD levels to watch

 

At time of writing, the Cable is trading at the 1.6345 area, recording a 0.6% loss Wednesday with immediate supports at 1.6327 (Jan 15 low), 1.6320 (Dec 24 low) and 1.6300 (psychological level). On the flip side, resistances are seen at 1.6407 (20-day SMA), 1.6442 (Jan 15 high) and 1.6464 (Jan 14 high).

 

 


 

 

Jan 15, 2014

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USD/CHF bounces off 200-hour SMA


 

 

 

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The USD/CHF came under pressure and fell to fresh daily lows during the European session, although it found support at the 200-hour SMA and bounced.

 

After failing to decisively break above the 0.9100 mark, the USD/CHF turned lower and dropped toward the 0.9060 zone before the 200-hour SMA contained the slide. At time of writing, the USD/CHF is trading at the 0.9075 area, still a few pips below its opening price. Up ahead during the NY session, data includes US CPI and jobless claims.

 

USD/CHF levels to watch

 

IN terms of technical levels, the USD/CHF could find immediate resistances at the 0.9100/07 area (psychological level/Jan 15 high), 0.9126 (Jan 8 high) and 0.9150 (Nov 22 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 0.9060 (200-hour SMA), 0.9040 (100-hour SMA) and 0.9025 (Jan 15 low).

 


 

 

Jan 16, 2014

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US: Consumer Price Index rises 0.3% in December


 

 

 

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - US consumer prices rose 0.3% in December, the US Labor Department reported Thursday, matching market's expectations and following a flat reading the previous month.

 

However, the Consumer Price Index grew 1.5% in the 12 months to December, also matching forecast and higher than November's 1.2% rise.

 

Core CPI, which strips food and energy costs, rose 1.7% over the last twelve months and 0.1% MoM in line with expectations.

 


 

 

Jan 16, 2014

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Canada: Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian securities rises to C$8.66 billion in Nov


 

 

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - Foreign investors added C$8.7 billion of Canadian securities to their holdings in November, Statistics Canada said Monday. 

 

Meanwhile, Canadian investors acquired C$6.6 billion of foreign securities, all bonds.

 

 


 

 

Jan 16, 2014

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 


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