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Hopes of a shutdown, debt-ceiling deal boost markets

 

 

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -US markets are extending the bullish momentum on Friday, advancing for the second consecutive session, as hopes of a deal to re-open the US Government shutdown and to rise the debt-ceiling are boosting the sentiment. The greenback, gauged by the US Dollar index, is trimming weekly losses and hovering over 80.40/45. At the moment, DowJones is up 0.63% seconded by the S&P500, 0.55% and the Nasdaq, 0.55%.

 

Bourses across the pond also closed with gains following renewed hopes of a deal to unlock the US political stand-off. The FTSE100 led the winners, advancing 0.88% and followed by the DAX, 0.45% and the IBEX35, 0.08%. The shared currency is meandering around the middle of the weekly range in the proximities of 1.3540, closely following the developments in the US fiscal front.

 

In the commodities’ space, the ounce troy of the precious metal is plummeting more than 2% at $1,266 while barrel of WTI is following the same path,, down 1.42% at $101.55.

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 11,2013

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EUR/GBP back in positive territory?

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (London) - EUR/GBP was falling on the CPI release and breaking the 0.8460 support late in the day yesterday. 

 

The supply in 0.8490-0.8510 regions remains and with the downside break not really extending, the range remains 0.8420-0.8500 while today's data had a marginal impact n the pair. Research teams at TD Securities explained that the UK labour market data on net was better than expected, though the all-important ILO unemployment rate for August came in unchanged and on consensus at 7.7%. Meanwhile EZ CPI came in line and attention will turn to ECB Draghi’s Speech.

 

EUR/GBP Levels

 

The 20 DMA is 0.8425, the 50 DMA is 0.8477 and the 200 DMA is 0.8527. RSI (14) reads 52.53. Supports are ascending from 0.8376, 0.8401, 0.8425 and 0.8458. Spot is currently 0.8462 while resistances are 0.8494, 0.8510, 0.8520 and 0.8553.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 16,2013

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Flash: GBP in the first mover disadvantage position? - UBS

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - After the US debt deal, the expectation for the Fed to continue its monetary easing for longer moved EUR/USD on Thursday to its highest level for 9 months amid broad USD weakness. The UBS analyst team commented on divergent monetary policies and how they would affect currencies.

 

Key Quotes

 

"We would argue this EUR-strength is not liked at the ECB." 

 

"On the other hand, Bank of England chief economist Dale talked about rates could rise in 2014 and thereby spurred the GBP rally". 

 

"We continue to see GBP in the so called 'first mover disadvantage'– the disadvantage of strong currency appreciation for whoever is expected to tighten monetary policy first".

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 17,2013

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S&P500 posed for record close after the fiscal deal

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -Shares in the US markets are trading mostly higher on Thursday, with corporate earnings now taking centre stage after the US clinched a deal to re-open the shutdown and raise temporarily the debt ceiling. The US Dollar index is submerged into the red territory around 79.65/70, dragged lower after the Chinese agency Dangon cut the US credit rating. At the moment DowJones is down 0.37% while the S&P500 and the Nasdaq are up 0.27% and 0.24%, respectively.

 

Positive corporate results plus a relief tone after the US deal left markets mixed in Euroland, with the FTSE100 and the IBEX35 advancing 0.07% and 0.39%, respectively. The CAC40 dropped 0.10% followed by the DAX 0.38%. The shared currency rallied to the area of 1.3670 in response to the Chinese rating cut to the US, leaving the door open for an assault to 2013 highs at 1.3711.

 

In the commodities’ space, the barrel of WTI is testing the psychological support at 100.00, down 1.56% while the ounce troy of gold is following the opposite path, posting strong gains at $1,320, or 2.95%.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 17,2013

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AUD/USD in wait and see mode at trend line resistance?

 


FXstreet.com (London) - AUD/USD is attempting the 0.9680 resistances again at the top of the recent bull-run from last weeks 0.9460/80 range.

 

AUD/USD is rested higher at these levels within a range ahead of tomorrows NFP’s. Research teams at TD Securities said, “The delayed September report is out tomorrow and we look for a 182k gain in payrolls (market +180k), from +169k in August…The USD will remain sensitive to the relative strength/weakness of the data, even though the Fed remains sidelined for the next few months”. Then, they suggested all eyes will be on the Q3 CPI report in Wednesday where they expect a deceleration in the key underlying measure from 2.4%/yr to 2.1%/yr (mkt 2.2%), or a quarterly average print of +0.5%/qtr. “Some estimates are rather lofty, so if we’re wrong, expect the AUD to explode to the topside from here”.

 

AUD/USD Levels

 

The 20 DMA is 0.9455, the 50 DMA is 0.9280 and the 200 DMA is 0.9757. RSI (14) reads 56.52. Supports are ascending from 0.9548, 0.9564, 0.9604, 0.9625 and 0.9649. Spot is currently 0.9671 while resistances are 0.9680, 0.9700, 0.9716 and 0.9765.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 21,2013

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GBP/USD trims losses as USD lacks momentum

 

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD quickly trimmed intraday losses after falling a 4-day low of 1.6132 at the beginning of the New York session. 

 

The greenback failed to sustain momentum, allowing the GBP/USD to recover some ground and cut losses. However, from a wider view, the Cable remains trapped in a range bounded by 1.6130 on the downside and 1.6180 on the upside as investors await the NFP report to be published Tuesday.

 

GBP/USD levels to watch

 

As for technical levels, if the GBP/USD breaks below 1.6130, it could fall to 1.6100 (psychological level) and even 1.6065 (100-hour SMA). On the other hand, resistances are now seen at 1.6180 (daily high), 1.6225 (Oct 18 high) and 1.6260 (Oct 1 high).

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 21,2013

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NZD/USD jittery ahead of NFP’s tomorrow

 

 

FXstreet.com (London) - NZD/USD is jittery ahead of tomorrows NFP’s. The pair opened lower with a gap on the charts and declined 40 pips before reverting on the bid to close the gap.

 

Research teams at TD Securities said the net permanent migration jumped by +2740 in Sep, where the monthly and annual increase are at decade highs. “The upside pressure on domestic demand is intensifying. Credit card spend in Sep was –0.1%/mth, entirely as expected as the upwardly revised Aug jump of +1.4%/yr”. Later today we will see NZ trade balance for Sep month on month. They continued and mentioned the delayed September NFP’s report is out tomorrow… “and we look for a 182k gain in payrolls (market +180k), from +169k in August…The USD will remain sensitive to the relative strength/weakness of the data, even though the Fed remains side-lined for the next few months”.

 

NZD/USD Levels

 

The 20 DMA is 0.8331, the 50 DMA is 0.8132 and the 200 DMA is 0.8183. RSI (14) reads 47.08. Supports are ascending from 0.8398, 0.8416 and 0.8430. Spot is currently 0.8463 while resistances are 0.8506, 0.8529, 0.8558, 0.8587 and 0.8643.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 21,2013

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US: Construction Spending rises 0.6% in August

 

 


FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - US Construction Spending grew 0.6% in August, down from the 1.4% increase registered the previous month, according to data released by the US Census Bureau. This result is above consensus of +0.4%.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 22,2013

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US: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index rises in October against forecasts

 

 

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index grew to 1 point in October after remaining flat in September, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond informed on Tuesday. Analysts expected the indicator to stay unchanged for another month.

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 22,2013

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Flash: New Year dollars – JP Morgan

 

 

 

 

 


FXstreet.com (London) - Research teams at JP Morgan said this month’s Washington wars raise understandable questions about enduring damage to the dollar as a reserve currency, since the political process creates non-zero default risk in an asset which should be default-free. However, they said the damage to the dollar therefore looks more cyclical than structural.


Key Quotes:

 

“…the damage to the dollar therefore looks more cyclical than structural in that is suppresses US rates for longer”. 

 

“But with the US economy unlikely to slow much or for long, US rates should move towards 2.7% by year-end, which in turn limits USD downside into the new year”. 

 

“We doubt the December 2013/January 2014 debates will be as tense as the October one, and the debt ceiling issue has been deferred effectively until July 2014 due to Treasury’s use of extraordinary measures”. 

 

“Thus round five of the budget disputes under a divided Congress (the first three were the April 2011 near-shutdown, August 2011 debt ceiling and December 2012 fiscal cliff) could prove even less impactful on global markets than the fourth round in this October”.

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 22,2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 


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USD/CAD soars after BoC statement

 

 

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The Loonie weakened broadly and USD/CAD soared to a fresh 1-week high after the BoC monetary policy decision.

 

BoC drops hawkish bias

 

Even though the Bank of Canada decided to keep interest rate unchanged at 1.0% it dropped reference to higher rates as it trimmed GDP projections for 2013 and 2014. USD/CAD jumped after the statement and climbed to a fresh 1-week high of 1.0379 before easing slightly.


USD/CAD technical levels

 

The USD/CAD is currently trading at the 1.0365 area, recording a 0.4% gain on Wednesday ahead of the BoC news conference scheduled for 16:30GMT. As for technical levels, immediate resistances are seen at 1.0379 (daily high), and 1.0400 (psychological level), while supports could be found at 1.0282 (daily low) and 1.0265 (200-day SMA).

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 23,2013

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RBA unlikely to cut – Rabobank

 

 

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (London) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank noted that overnight brought news of a stronger than expected rise in Australian CPI (0.7% q/q). 

 

Key Quotes:

 

“This data release has strengthened our belief that the RBA are unlikely to cut rates again this cycle but this view was formed because of signs of pick up in other parts of the Australian economy, including the housing market”. 

 

While the RBA, like most G10 central banks, is mandated to keep CPI in check, the Bank in recent years has been forced to keep one eye on house prices and the associated outlook for household debt”. 

 

“High levels of household debt means that the economy is more vulnerable to a hard landing when recessionary risks arise”. 

 

“While the end of the mining investment boom in Australian impacted household’s desire to take on more debt, house prices have recently been again showing signs of life and this is likely to be a key factor in staying the hand of the RBA going forward”.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 23,2013

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Flash: The commentary in the October Minutes on the real economy conveyed a more upbeat tone – RBS

 

 

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (London) - Research teams at RBS noted the BoE minutes and said the MPC voted unanimously, for a fourth successive month, to maintain monetary policy settings – “as expected”.

 

Key Quotes:

 

“…The MPC continues to eye the business surveys with some caution [the PMIs have tended to over-estimate the official GDP data by almost a full percentage point in annualised growth terms over the past couple of years] but noted the signs of revival in the housing market which were 'likely to provide a fillip to both dwellings investment and consumer spending'”. 

 

“As the Minutes implied, this might not be wholly consistent with the desire for a 'rebalancing' of demand, but there seems to be less high-minded rhetoric about this these days, either from Threadneedle St or Westminster”.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 23,2013

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AUD/USD breaks below 0.9600

 

 

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD slipped to fresh daily lows at the beginning of the American session after data showed US jobless claims fell less than anticipated last week, while August trade deficit widened in August.

 

US initial jobless claims fell to 350K in the week ending Oct 19 versus 380K expected. The AUD/USD broke below the 0.9600/05 support area and stretched to a 1-week low of 0.9585 so far. At time of writing, AUD/USD is trading at the 0.9595 zone, recording a 0.2% loss on the day.

 

Aussie weighed by China woes

 

The Aussie remains under pressure Thursday despite stronger-than-expected Chinese HSBC PMI amid concerns about reports of a large write-off of bad loans at major Chinese banks and a spike in short-term rates. 

 

AUD/USD technical levels

 

As for technical levels, next supports are seen at 0.9526 (Oct 17 low) and then 0.9500/0.9498 (psychological level/Oct 16 low). On the other hand, resistances could be found at 0.9670 (daily high) and 0.9700 (psychological level) ahead of 0.9712 (50% of 1.0581-0.8847).

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 24,2013

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US: Trade deficit rose to $38.80 billion in August

 

 

 


FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The Commerce Department has informed that the trade deficit expanded to $38.80 billion during August from $38.64 billion (revised from $39.15 billion) in the previous month (revised). The print however bettered the median at $39.50 billion.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 24,2013

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GBP/USD tug of war, can support 1.6150 hold up?

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (London) - GBP/USD has been a tug of war over the past couple of sessions, spending most of yesterday on the back foot following a large order that hit the market on the China news. 

 

Key 1.6115/20 level held up and the reversal has swift, trading back above 1.62 on the open in Europe today. However, the dollar has risen again taking the pair lower while the trade balance has improved in August. This opens up a well defined range between (1.6115 and 1.6260) and a break of either could illicit a decent move.

 

GBP/USD Levels

 

The 20 DMA is 1.6090, the 50 DMA is 1.5877 and the 200 DMA is 1.5478. RSI (14) reads 39.73. Supports are ascending from 1.6033, 1.6064, 1.6076 and 1.6110. Spot is currently 1.6155 while resistances are 1.6190, 1.6205, 1.6228, 1.6260 and 1.6310.

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 24,2013

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European Council to focus on US spying allegations at the summit

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The European Council begins a two-day meeting in Brussels today and most likely the main topic of discussion will be the latest revelations in the US spying scandal, which will push the economic and social issues expected to be dealt with into the background.

 

Over the week both French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke to Barack Obama, asking about the spying allegations. On Monday the French leader demanded explanations on the reports of the US monitoring millions of phone calls in France. On Wednesday Merkel called the US President to ask about evidence of her phone being tapped by the American intelligence. 

 

European Union leaders, who initially planned to focus on ways of boosting employment in the area and dealing with the immigration crisis, will now most probably shift their attention to the issue of EU-wide data privacy rules.

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 24,2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 


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Flash: No one in at the ECB but plenty of data

 

 

 

 

 

FXstreet.com (London) - Research teams at BBH noted the ECB will not meet until next Thursday, November 7 but ahead of that, the euro zone will report a host of data this week. 

 

Key Quotes:

 

“Spain and Ireland report September retail sales on Tuesday”. 

 

“German October CPI and jobs, Spain Q3 GDP and September CPI all come out on Wednesday”. 

 

“On Thursday, Germany reports September retail sales and November GfK consumer confidence”.

 

“… while Friday sees the start of the October PMI readings with Greece and Spain reporting”. 

 

“The bulk of the final PMI readings from the euro zone will be seen next Monday”.

 

“More concrete talks about the shape of the new German coalition start on Wednesday. Control of the finance ministry is one of the areas at stakes. This is not just what party would get to appoint the minister, but there is also some talk of changing ministry’s responsibilities including European policy”.

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 28,2013

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Flash: EUR/USD short term technical look bullish – Scotiabank

 

 

 

 


FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Scotiabank strategists believe that EUR/USD looks bullish in the short term, based on a technical outlook.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Near term momentum and trend indicators are bullish. Key resistance level for EUR lies at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2011-12 decline in EUR, which lies at 1.3833.”

 

“A meaningful break of this level would likely spur continued gains. Meanwhile, a near term pull back would be expected to find support at 1.3681 followed by 1.3550.”

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 28,2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 


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