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USD/JPY supported 99.40

 

 

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - USD/JPY has calved a path lower post an initial 20-pip spike after the release of US CPI.

 

USD/JPY jumped from 99.30 territories to reach a high in the London session in a relatively quiet day and start to the week ahead of Bernanke’s semi-annual testimony to US Congress tomorrow. For Japan, this week we will see BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes tomorrow.

 

USD/JPY with a downside bias

 

Karen Jones, Chief analyst at Commerzbank noted that in USD/JPY, despite yesterdays rally, the market remains below its 101.60 78.6% retracement and attention remains on the base of the cloud circa 98.15. “It starts this week sandwiched between these two levels. We suspect that overall risk is on the downside. Should the base of the cloud be eroded, it will leave the market under pressure and likely to slide back to 96.75/95.40 en route to the 93.75 recent low”.

 

 

 

 

 

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July 16, 2013

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US equities open positively after upbeat CPI

 

 

FXstreet.com (New York) - The US stock market edged higher Tuesday at the opening, as investors digest the latest CPI figures in the United States.

 

Earlier today in the United States, the Consumer Price Index (YoY) grew by +1.8% in June, exceeding estimates of +1.5%. In addition, the Consumer Price Index (MoM) climbed +0.5% in June, beating expectations of only +0.3%. Finally, the Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) was reported at +1.6% in June, in line with projections.

 

Beginning with the indices and composites, the NASDAQ rose +0.06% as it settles in region of 3610.41, up +2.16 points in these moments. In addition, the S&P 500 is trading in positive territory, operating at 1683.53, ascending +0.70 points or +0.04% at the time of writing. Finally, the Dow Jones has moved higher at the opening, trading in the zone of 15487.87, presently +0.02% after a movement of +3.61 points.

 

Sectors are all mixed at the opening, however the Basic Materials and Energy sectors have distinguished themselves as the winners thus far, rising +0.63% and +0.29% respectively. Moreover, the price of gold has settled at $1291.24 per oz., while silver is now negotiating a spot price of $19.94 per oz. Tuesday.

 

 

 

 

 

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July 16, 2013

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Flash: US Labour market improving - BBH

 

 

FXstreet.com (London) - Marc Chandler Global Head of Currency Strategy at BBH said the US labour market has gradually improved.

 

Leaving aside the unemployment rate, which is really more about the participation rate, the US economy has generated roughly 4.5 mln jobs over the past two years. The point is not about the strength in absolute terms, but relative to Europe. The housing market in the US has also improved, with Case-Shiller house price index rising at its strongest pace since mid-2006. These two consideration help underpin demand for durable goods.

 

 

 

 

 

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July 16, 2013

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GBP/USD dips to 1.5150 on Bernanke

 

 

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) -The GBP/USD is losing around a big-figure since today’s peaks near 1.5270 as Fed’s Bernanke is holding a Q&A session after his testimony.

 

GBP/USD testing 1.5150

 

The greenback is finding support on Bernanke’s words, bouncing off lows and weighting on the pair. Recall that earlier on during the European morning the BoE left intact its monetary policy and the MPC unanimously voted to keep the asset purchase programme at £375 billion, boosting the pound to fresh weekly highs in the boundaries of 1.5270. In the opinion of G.Moore and S.Osborne, FX Strategists at TD Securities, “The bigger picture remains however, that the MPC is still likely to remain very accommodative for quite a while and could even pursue alternate stimulus measures going forward. Overall that suggests the GBP should be weighed lower in the months ahead, particularly against the USD”.

 

GBP/USD levels to watch

 

As of writing the pair is up 0.15% at 1.5182 facing the next hurdle at 1.5270 (high Jul.17) ahead of 1.5284 (50% of 1.4832-1.5753) and then 1.5305 (high Jul.3). On the downside, a break below 1.5080 (low Jul.17) would target 1.5059 (MA10d) en route to 1.5045 (low Jul.16).

 

 

 

 

 

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July 17, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 

 

 

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GBP/USD dips to 1.5150 on Bernanke

 

 

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) -The GBP/USD is losing around a big-figure since today’s peaks near 1.5270 as Fed’s Bernanke is holding a Q&A session after his testimony.

 

GBP/USD testing 1.5150

 

The greenback is finding support on Bernanke’s words, bouncing off lows and weighting on the pair. Recall that earlier on during the European morning the BoE left intact its monetary policy and the MPC unanimously voted to keep the asset purchase programme at £375 billion, boosting the pound to fresh weekly highs in the boundaries of 1.5270. In the opinion of G.Moore and S.Osborne, FX Strategists at TD Securities, “The bigger picture remains however, that the MPC is still likely to remain very accommodative for quite a while and could even pursue alternate stimulus measures going forward. Overall that suggests the GBP should be weighed lower in the months ahead, particularly against the USD”.

 

GBP/USD levels to watch

 

As of writing the pair is up 0.15% at 1.5182 facing the next hurdle at 1.5270 (high Jul.17) ahead of 1.5284 (50% of 1.4832-1.5753) and then 1.5305 (high Jul.3). On the downside, a break below 1.5080 (low Jul.17) would target 1.5059 (MA10d) en route to 1.5045 (low Jul.16).

 

 

 

 

 

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July 17, 2013

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Fed's Beige Book: US economy expanded at a modest to moderate pace

 

 

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The US economy has continued to grow at a "modest to moderate" pace from late May to early July across Fed's 12 Districts, according to the Beige Book, which described economic growth in the same terms as the last one.

 

The Beige Book said manufacturing "expanded in most districts", while reported rising consumer spending, stable to growing services activity, and moderate to strong residential real estate and construction.

 

In terms of employment, the Beige Book noted that while hiring held steady or increased at a measured pace, there was a reluctance to add full-time workers.

 

Regarding prices, most Districts reported pressures remained stable or modest, while wage pressures "generally remained contained", although some Districts reported modest or moderate wage growth in some sectors.

 

The Beige Book survey, released two weeks before each policy meeting, is based on information gathered by officials at the Fed's 12 regional banks. Today's report was Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and based on information collected on or before July 8, 2013 and it will be used for discussions at the next policy meeting on Jul 30-31.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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July 17, 2013

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Flash: Tapering implications - BMO

 

 

FXstreet.com (London) - Stephen Gallo, European Head of FX Strategy at BMO suggests high-level global coordination is needed to manage QE tapering risks and developing market strains.

 

Key Quotes:

 

“Versus key funding currencies such as the EUR, JPY, CHF and USD, we see reasons to be upbeat on developing markets once the QE tapering adjustment is complete”.

 

“ We view the Q2 instability in key Asian and other developing market currencies largely as a healthy correction away from speculative excess, and a tempering of “QE-related” capital flows”.

 

”US monetary policy settings have increasingly been at odds with the needs of the rest of the global economy; the advent of QE may

 

 

 

 

 

 

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July 18, 2013

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USD/CHF held by 0.9475 resistance

 

 

FXstreet.com (New York) - The USD/CHF foreign exchange rate surged higher as the USD notched solid gains across the board during US trading, peaking recently at 0.9474 (intraday high).

 

At the time of writing, the USD/CHF is now settling near its highs at 0.9469, presently notching a robust +0.59% above its opening. Technically speaking, the USD/CHF will encounter resistive means at 0.9475, onto 0.9497, and finally 0.9535, calculates the Danske Research team.

 

USD/CHF strategic bias

 

According to the Karen Jones, an analyst at Commerzbank, “The USD/CHF has sold off towards and is showing signs of recovery from the 200-day MA at 0.9358. Rallies will need to regain the 0.9568 March high in order to alleviate immediate downside pressure and retarget the 0.9753 July high. We have a TD perfected set up on the 240 minute chart and favor recovery.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

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July 18, 2013

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GBP/USD retreats back to 1.5200 barrier

 

 

FXstreet.com (New York) - The GBP/USD technical pair retreated back to the 1.5200 region Thursday, having experienced pressure from a strengthening USD during US trading.

 

In these moments, the GBP/USD has now moved into negative territory, presently incurring a loss of -0.12% off its opening. The GBP/USD remains fortified by supports at 1.5154, ahead of 1.5120, and 1.5080, notes the Danske Research Team.

 

GBP/USD strategic bias

 

According to Karen Jones, an analyst at Commerzbank, “The GBP/USD shot higher yesterday, but has still not cleared the 1.5300/05 resistance. We continue to view the rebound from support at as corrective and Elliot wave counts on the 240-minute chart suggests the rally will fail circa the more important 1.5305 level (50% retracement). Provided it does so, attention should revert to the 1.4854/32 support.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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July 18, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 

 

 

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USD/CAD unable to shake negativity

 

 

FXstreet.com (New York) - The USD/CAD foreign exchange rate has been unable to muster a sustained push Monday capable of eliminating the entirety of its losses after a prolonged rebound that has already risen out of the depths at 1.0319 (daily low).

 

In these moments, the USD/CAD is unable to shake its negatively, relegated to losses of -0.22%, currently trading at 1.0340. Technically speaking, the USD/CAD remains capped well fortified by short-term supports at 1.0326, ahead of 1.0296, and 1.0269, notes the Danske Research Team.

 

USD/CAD strategic bias

 

According to the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com, “The USD/CAD is still trading negatively within the normal bearish correction in the ascending channel. The downside move might extend this week especially that the pair is stable below 1.0430 and Linear Regression Indicators tends to be negative. Breaking 1.0315 might clearly extend the downside move in the upcoming period.”

 

 

 

 

 

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July 22, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 

 

 

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Flash: Portuguese politics remain split – Deutsche Bank

 

 

FXstreet.com (New York) - The impending situation in Portugal took a different turn this weekend, culminating in new chapter of drama, notes Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank.

 

Key quotes

 

In Europe, “a major political development of note on Sunday was in Portugal where the major parties failed to agree on a national salvation pact. However the President announced a new solution to the political situation late last night which involves the ruling coalition government remaining in office after the ruling bloc gave the President additional guarantees that they would keep their coalition together to see through the country’s EU program.”

 

The President ruled out calling a snap general election two years ahead of schedule and said the ruling coalition would shortly table a confidence motion setting out its economic plans until the end of it term in 2015.

 

 

 

 

 

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July 22, 2013

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EUR/USD in fresh 5-week highs around 1.3230

 

 

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The euro is accelerating its pace now, lifting the EUR/USD to fresh highs in the boundaries of 1.3230, levels last seen in late June.

 

EUR/USD bolstered by USD weakness

 

The heavy selling is still hovering over the greenback, testing the key support at 82.00 and posting multi-week lows at the same time in terms of the US Dollar Index. BBH Global Currency Strategy Team suggested, “Even though the greater uncertainty about the timing of Fed tapering remains the strongest driver in FX markets, the news flow out of Europe also supports our near-term dollar consolidation call. We see scope for the euro to stage a break of the $1.3250 level this week. On the other hand, a move down to the $1.3050-80 area would put this view in doubt”.

 

EUR/USD critical levels

 

At the moment the pair is up 0.28% at 1.3223 and a break above1.3255 (high Jun.21) would open the door to 1.3261 (76.4% of 1.3417-1.2755) and then 1.3302 (high Jun.20). On the downside, support levels align at 1.3164 (low Jul.23) followed by 1.3115 (low Jul.22) and finally 1.3106 (cloud base).

 

 

 

 

 

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July 23, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 

 

 

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AUD/USD extends the correction higher

 

 

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -After hitting session lows around 0.9230, the Aussie dollar is picking up pace and pushing the AUD/USD to the current area of 0.9260/65.]

 

AUD/USD trimming losses

 

The pair is thus paring earlier losses from overnight tops around 0.9290, ahead of key inflation data in Australia due tomorrow. Gareth Berry, FX Strategist at UBS commented, “Our economists think inflationary pressure will be weak enough to trigger a 25bp RBA cut on August 6. Only 17bp of easing is currently priced in, so we expect significant Australian dollar sensitivity to any surprise in either direction”.

 

AUD/USD levels to watch

 

At the moment the pair is advancing 0.19% at 0.9267 with the next hurdle at 0.9286 (high Jul.23) ahead of 0.9292 (high Jul.17) and then 0.9301 (38.2% of 0.9792-0.8998). On the downside, a breach of 0.9187 (MA10d) would open the door to 0.9180 (MA21d) and then 0.9175 (low Jul.22).

 

 

 

 

 

 

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July 23, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 

 

 

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Flash: China weighing on AUD – TD Securities

 

 

FXstreet.com (London) - Research teams at TD Securities noted the performance of AUD post Chinese data overnight.

 

Key Quotes:

 

“A miss on the flash HSBC Chinese manufacturing PMI contrasted the better than expected PMI’s from German and France overnight, and the reaction in the FX space reflects that divergence with the EUR at the top of the G10 performance ranks and AUD at the bottom”.

 

“The AUD had a lot to digest in a short period, with a mixed but overall better than expected Australian inflation report initially lifting the currency above 0.9300 before the flash Chinese PMI unwound any positive tone shortly after”.

“The somewhat better inflation report suggests the threat of an RBA rate cut next month has diminished slightly, but the more pressing concern for markets is the state of activity in China”.

 

“The flash PMI raises fears of a sub-50 print for the official PMI next week, and such an outcome could re-ignite fears of a ‘hard landing”.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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July 24, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 

 

 

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Flash: USD/JPY downside held by 98.57 support – UBS

 

 

FXstreet.com (New York) - UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's majors and outline the technical positions.

 

Key quotes

 

Beginning with the USD/JPY, Any downside will be held by strong support at 98.57, which was held previously on a closing basis. Focus is on resumption of upside, with resistance at 101.53 ahead of the key resistance at 103.74, suggesting a bullish intraday outlook.”

 

“As for the GBP/USD, upside is held by a strong resistance at 1.5394. A closing break above this would be a bullish development. Initial support is at 1.5258 ahead of 1.5171.

 

Finally, “regarding the USD/CHF, with the MACD settled below the zero line, our focus is on further downside, with initial support at 0.9242 ahead of critical 0.9130.Resistance is at 0.9416 ahead of 0.9478.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

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July 24, 2013

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GBP/USD in red within the range

 

 

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The GBP/USD is posting meager gains at the time of writing, hovering over 1.5355/60 as the GBP rally is showing signs of exhaustion around the key 1.5400 handle.

 

GBP/USD recovery faltering

 

Same as its European counterpart, the pound is recovering ground lost in the recent USD rally from mid-June to early July, although the pair seems to lack vigour to surpass 1.5400 the figure so far. In the opinion of Nick Mannion and Paul Robson, Strategists at RBS, “Risks would be more two-way up at 1.54 and turn to downside as spot approaches 1.57. While we’re still concentrating on the policy event risks of early August to provide the next directional signal, talk of sustained recovery in the UK should be mildly GBP supportive. On this, we continue to believe that the scope for UK data to surprise is becoming increasingly limited”.

 

GBP/USD levels to watch

 

At the moment the pair is down 0.06% at 1.5358 with the next support at 1.5315 (low Jul.24) ahead of 1.5289 (MA30d) and finally 1.5258 (low Jul.22). On the flip side, a break above 1.5390 (high Jul.24) would open the door to 1.5393 (high Jul.23) and then 1.5442 (high Jun.26).

 

 

 

 

 

 

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July 24, 2013

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USD/JPY collapses to 98.00

 

 

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The Dollar continues with its decline against the Japanese Yen and after collapsing around 60 pips from 98.60 in the last few minutes, the USD/JPY has fallen to break the 98.20 key level and to test the 98.00 support, lowest since June 27th.

 

Currently, the USD/JPY is trading at 98.10, 1.20% negative on the day. The short term perspective remains slightly bearish according to the FXstreet.com trend index in the 1-hour chart. Indicators such as MACD, CCI and Momentum are pointing to the south while the Stochastic is bullish.

 

Below the 98.00, next supports are 97.60 and 97.20. On the upside, resistances are now at 98.20, 99.00, 99.10 and 99.85.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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July 26, 2013

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Precious metals sail higher after US data, crude breaches 107.00

 

 

FXstreet.com (New York) - Precious metals sailed higher on the release of US data earlier, sending hold and silver soaring towards resistances that threaten to allay any bearishness.

 

Gold needs to hold above 1300.00

 

The US employment figures were mixed, as the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in July lower then expected, however unemployment rate ticked lower to 7.4%. The NFP number was slightly negative as markets were expecting a solid reading following the flow of strong economic data. Given these insights, a preferably neutral stance on gold is advised, despite the recent jump in prices – likely it is better to monitor how spot prices end the trading session today, and if till be able to close the session above the key 1300.00 barrier. At the time of writing, gold prices are trading at USD $1313.12 per oz. Friday.

 

Silver tests 20.00

 

The white metal has managed to hold its 19.25 support level, which if broken will clear the way to 18.70 and 18.20 downside targets. However, the advent of payroll data has sent silver spot prices surging back up the 20.00 region, though ultimately a bearish bias is maintained below 20.00. The price of silver has now moved to USD $19.94 per oz. during US trading.

 

WTI bullishness portended?

 

WTI crude oil continued to push lower, after the major bullish rally, which is a normal pullback after being excessively overbought. The price pushed through the 107.30-107.35 region as an initial downside support for today, which might force price to resume the bullish direction. In these moments, WTI crude oil is negotiating a price of USD $106.93/bbl Friday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Aug 2, 2013

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USD/CHF offered sub 0.9300

 

 

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - USD/CHF attempted a recovery overnight from support zone 0.9260 but has since been rejected just shy of 0.9300.

 

USD/CHF is holding up at 0.9280 for the time being on what has been a quiet European session so far across the board. . Today on the event side of things we have a little bit of US data starting out wit the Trade Balance (Jun) expected -$43.10B. Then we will see Redbook Index (YoY) and (MoM) (Jul 28). For Switzerland, we will wait for tomorrow and see the outcomes of CPI (MoM) and (YoY) (Jul).

 

USD/CHF moves below pivot 0.9293

 

USD/CHF has filed to the topside of its overnight run and has ticked below the pivot 0.9293. The 20d ma is 0.9370, 50 d ma is 0.9393 and the 200 d ma 0.9359. RSI (9) reads 38.02. Supports are ascending from 0.9130, 0.9176, 0.9226, 0.9246 while spot is currently trading at 0.9275. Resistances are 0.9280, 0.9310, 0.9333 and 0.9395

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Aug 6, 2013

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EUR/JPY correcting lower

 

 

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The EUR/JPY is hovering over the area of 130.25/30 on Tuesday, down from session highs in the proximity of 130.70.

 

EUR/JPY well supported around 129.00

 

The par is meandering between 129.00 and 133.00 since early July, reflecting the lack of clear direction in the single currency so far. Strategists Geoffrey Yu and Gareth Berry at UBS remain bullish on the cross, arguing, “The cross advanced after the test of critical support at 129.77. With the MACD still above the zero line, the risk is for further upside. Resistance is at 133.80”.

 

EUR/JPY support and resistance levels

 

The cross is now losing 0.01% at 130.31 and a breach of 129.81 (low Aug.6) would expose 129.38 (cloud top) and finally 129.35 (low Jul.31). On the upside, the next hurdle aligns at 130.72 (high Aug.6) followed by 130.91 (Tenkan Sen line) and then 1.31.55 (high Aug.5).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Aug 6, 2013

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Flash: USD/JPY to smart from dollar weakness - OCBC Bank

 

 

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Emmanuel Ng of OCBC Bank is expecting no surprises expected out of the BOJ’s Wed-Thu meeting.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The USD/JPY may well continue to smart from broad based dollar softness in the near term.”

 

“The pair is currently contemplating the 98.00 floor with the next support expected at 97.60 before 97.00.”

 

“In the interim, 99.00 should cap barring further USD positive rhetoric from the Fed.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Flash: BOJ preview: Likely to remain on hold - BAML

 

 

FXstreet.com (London) - Strategists Masayuki Kichikawa, Shogo Fujita, Shusuke Yamada, Setsuko Yamashita and Shuichi Ohsaki at BofA Merrill Lynch noted the BoJ coming up this week.

 

Key Quotes:

 

“The BoJ's next policy meeting is on 7-8 August. We do not expect it to make any changes to its policy framework, such as the base money target, the pace of asset accumulation, or the IOER”.

 

“The BoJ might need to consider additional easing in three cases: (1) if downside risks increase for the economic growth and inflation outlook; (2) if doubts arise about the effects of its quantitative and qualitative easing, in the form of an unacceptable rise in long-term yields, for example; and (3) if overseas economies falter and the yen appreciates”.

 

“With no change expected, we look for rates and FX to be range-bound. We favor receiving the belly, like JPY 3y1y, for its good rolldown”.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Aug 6, 2013

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US: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism deteriorates to 45.1 in August against forecasts

 

 

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The sentiment of US consumers dropped to 45.1 in August from 47.1 in July, the Investor's Business Daily (IBD) TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) informed on Tuesday. Analysts expected an improvement to 47.9.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Flash: Sterling could test 200 d ma 1.5545 - BBH

 

 

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at BBH notes that Sterling traders are cautious of a surprise from Carney.

 

Key Quote:

 

“We think caution of a surprise by Carney has prevented sterling from benefiting from the improved economic data and the modest backing up of interest rates”.

 

“ Barring, then, a significant surprise from Carney, we suspect sterling could trade higher; recover further against the euro, where the ECB is likely to keep rates low for longer (and risk renewed tensions after the summer holidays and German election)”.

 

“Against the dollar, sterling can test the late July high near $1.5435. A break of that area, which also corresponds to a retracement objective from the June 17 peak near $1.5750 would likely encourage a test on the 200-day moving average seen near $1.5545”.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Aug 6, 2013

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EUR/USD extends gains above 1.3300

 

 

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD picked up fresh momentum and extended gains above 1.3300 after one Fed Lockhart reportedly said the Fed could start tapering its bond-buying program at any of 3 remaining FOMC meetings this year.

USD weighed by taper talk

 

Amid broad USD weakness, EUR/USD managed to break above the 1.3300 level and climbed to a high of 1.3320 in recent dealings as US stocks and commodities tumble. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at the 1.3310/15 zone, where it records a 0.4% rise on the day.

 

EUR/USD levels to watch

 

Immediate resistance is now seen at 1.3345 (Jul 31 high) followed by 1.3400 (psychological level), while supports could be found at 1.3255 (100-hour SMA) and 1.3230 (Aug 5 low).

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Aug 6, 2013

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