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Forex Flash: Policy-related drivers continue to dictate currencies – UBS

 

 

With the dust settling post-RBA, it is worth revisiting some of the non-policy related drivers behind the currency. As always, positioning comes to the fore. On a structural level, we have highlighted for some time that the amount of inflow into liquid 'super-AAAs' over the last 18 months have had the effect of insulating the currency from wider risk swings, both helping lowering the beta on the AUD and secularly compressing implied volatility.

 

Although the demand was there, the currency actually underperformed all other currencies in G10 bar the JPY. Investors need no reminder of the economic and political volatility out of China last year, where hard landing fears were not alleviated until late in the year, and in hindsight, only briefly. As such, “a China risk premium was already being priced into the AUD. Hence, when the big 'AAA-unwind' in favor of the EUR actually happened, and despite unfavorable commentary from the RBA, compared to the NOK and CAD, AUD hasn't really done that poorly due to the perception that it was always more at risk.” notes Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS.

 

 

 

 

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Mar 05, 2013

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Forex: GBP/USD testing support at 1.5080 after US ADP

 

 

The GBP/USD has fallen on the heels of a upbeat economic data in the United States Wednesday. A previous upside attempt was halted at 1.5104, causing the pair to decline at the onset of American trading in recent moments. At the time of writing, the cross has settled at 1.5073/76, down -0.35%.

 

According to the ICN.com Analyst Team, “The GBP/USD dropped during today’s session before rebounding to 1.5100 levels. Trading below 1.5190 levels is negative; RSI is trading with a negative bias below 50 supporting our expectations.”

 

In the United States, the ADP Employment Change (February) came in at 198K, against expectations of 170K, and compared with 192K previously. Later today at 15:00 GMT investors will learn of the Factory Orders figure, which will shine more light on the status of the US economy.

 

The ICN.com analysts point to supports at 1.5080, followed by 1.5035, and the 1.5000 barrier. On the positive side, the GBP/USD will encounter resistive means at 1.0260, then 1.5130, 1.5190, and ultimately 1.5225.

 

 

 

 

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Mar 06, 2013

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Forex: EUR/USD dropping further after surprising US ADP

 

 

The EUR/USD is entering new daily lows as the NY session opens and US factory orders are still to come. The pair is pressing down again, below 1.3019 (low printed on the release of US ADP employment data).

 

US ADP employment has surprised investors by adding 198K jobs in February, instead of 170K, and revising January's figure from from 192K to 215K. US factory orders are expected to drop -2.2% in January, more than erasing the previous 1.8% gains.

“With the ECB tomorrow though we are likely to see more consolidation today”, wrote TD Securities analysts Shaun Osborne and Greg Moore. “For EUR/USD, key intraday resistance comes in near 1.3075, and we continue to favor an extension lower toward the upper 1.28/low 1.29 area in the next couple weeks”, they added.

 

 

 

 

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Forex Flash: USD strengthens against metrics – ANZ

 

 

According to the ANZ Research Team, “Our broader view has been to anticipate, as the global economy repaired itself, that the US dollar would stay soft against a range of currencies, particularly those in Asia and the EUR; and for the AUD and NZD to remain at high levels despite stretched valuation metrics.” Against this view, the dollar has strengthened particularly strongly since early February, and against some currencies since early January. Following this, a consensus seems to have emerged that the dollar's strength has been driven by US recovery expectations, and that this strength is likely to persist.

 

This is not the first time in recent years that a relative growth argument for dollar strength has been consensus. For us the key question is whether the dollar has rallied because recovery expectations are gathering momentum and the US is leading those, or have recovery expectations in fact, suffered a setback, contrary to our cyclical expectations. In other words, is there something wrong with our framework, or has our macro call just suffered a bit of a setback?

 

 

 

 

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Forex Flash: Growth shocks in US unlikely to trigger downside for CAD – UBS

 

 

Canada's key export sectors - manufacturing and energy - are not enjoying the best of demand conditions, and given the heavy exposure to the US, any growth shocks arising from sequestration in the US would be strongly felt by the Canadian labor market. Canada's current account - although at manageable levels - is struggling to recover and this serves as an immediate deterrent to longer-term investors.

 

As such, “it would probably take more time and data confirmation for such trends to materialize, and we do not expect them to serve as valid triggers for CAD downside on a tactical level.” notes Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS.

 

 

 

 

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Forex: EUR/GBP back to 0.8700 ground after ECB

 

 

Despite GBP strength on BoE's decision of keeping its policy as it was (rate at 0.5% and QE at £375B), the EUR boosted particularly on Draghi's press conference where he gave an upbeat speech, underlining his confidence in Eurozone's economic recovery.

 

The EUR/GBP drop on the BoE was supported around 0.8640, and then the cross shot back up and moved above the 0.8700 line. As of writing, the market trades at 0.8708 (+0.79%) and has printed its daily high at 0.8715.

 

“EUR/GBP is moving in a horizontal range between the support at 0.8572 (13/12/2013 low) and the resistance at 0.8815 (25/02/2013 high)”, wrote MIG Bank analyst Bijoy Kar, pointing to an hourly resistance at 0.8685 (01/03/2013 high).

 

 

 

 

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Mar 07, 2013

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Euro finds its way to 1.3100

 

 

The dollar weakened broadly during the New York session and fell versus most competitors after the global central banks remained on hold at today's monetary policy announcements.

 

The euro advanced, moving off recent lows sub-1.300, after the ECB held its interest rates steady. In the subsequent conference, ECB President Mario Draghi said that even though the decision was not unanimous, the ECB never precommits. Draghi also sounded optimistic by saying the economy will gradually recover and played down the Italian elections effects on the eurozone.

 

Comments from Draghi alongside better-than-expected US jobless claims helped to boost the EUR/USD which rose above 1.3100 for first time in a week. So what's ahead for the EUR/USD after the ECB? Tomorrow's US jobs report should provide some direction for FX markets heading into next week.

 

"As the week has progressed the here been some improvement in market sentiment, helping to support gains in U.S. European equities and many foreign currencies", says Nick Bennenbroek, Head of Currency Strategy at Wells Fargo Bank. "Should the U.S. jobs report show a solid gain tomorrow the commodity and emerging currencies could rise further, though we are more cautious on prospects for the euro, yen and pound".

 

Euro rises to 1.3100. Could it hold gains?

 

After today's rally, EUR/USD technical indicators have turned positive in the short-term supporting a steeper correction. However, as hourlies reach overbought levels and ahead of the NFP report, the cross will likely see a period of consolidation before another leg higher. The EUR/USD would still need to regain the 1.3160 area (Feb 28 high) in order to challenge the broader bearish bias.

 

On the downside, a break below 1.2965 (March 1 & 6 double bottom) would expose the 1.2900/08 zone (psychological level/ Fib 76.4% of 1.2660/1.3710).

 

Commenting on today's EUR/USD advance, Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst at DailyFX says that the rally could be short-lived, especially if tomorrows US Nonfarm Payrolls report for February lives up to the hype (+170K expected). "The growing divergence between the Euro-zone and US economies will be too apparent to keep the EURUSD bid on President Draghi’s 'hopes' for an economic recovery, despite no new policies on either the fiscal or monetary side that would indicate otherwise", he comments.

 

Meanwhile, on a wider view, TD Securities analysts note that if the market takes today's ECB tone too strongly, we could once again find ourselves in a replay of January-February, where Euribors and euro move so much that the ECB must then take another dovish tack to keep market expectations in check. "1.3150-1.3200 is a key risk area for EUR/USD as a push through there would likely bring more upside risk", TD team says.

 

 

 

 

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Forex: USD/JPY in multi-year highs above 95.00

 

 

The Japanese yen fell beyond 95.00 against the US dollar on Thursday, levels last seen in August 2009 as the bearishness surrounding JPY intensifies.

 

“Our outlook is fairly neutral very near term, longer term we remain bullish. Currently we remain unable to rule out a slide back to trendline support ahead of another leg higher. We can see that the market remains clearly under pinned by trend line support at 91.29”, assessed Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.

 

At the moment, the cross is up 0.92% at 94.92 with the next resistance at 95.77 (low Mar.2008 low) followed by 97.79 (high August 2009) and then 98.86 (high June 2009).

On the downside, a break below 93.79 (low Mar.7) would clear the way to 93.15 (low Mar.6) and finally 92.91 (low Mar.5)

 

 

 

 

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Canada: Unemployment remained at 7.0% in February

 

 

The Canadian jobless rate during February matched January’s at 7.0, bettering estimates at 7.1%.

 

The Net Change in Employment rose to 50.7K from -21.9K previous and 8.0K expected, while the Participation Rate rose a tad to 66.7% from 66.6%.

 

The Labour Productivity rose 0.1% QoQ during the fourth quarter, bettering the prior print at -0.4% and surpassing estimates at 0.0%.

 

 

 

 

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Mar 08, 2013

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American equity markets edge higher on upbeat US data

 

 

The US Stock market experienced a positive opening Friday after upbeat data in the United States. Earlier in the US, the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (February) came in at 236K, against projections of 160K and compared with 157K previously. Unemployment Rate (February) has also steadied at 7.7%, which beat expectations of 7.9%.

 

Beginning with the indices and composites, the NASDAQ rose +0.34% as it settles in region of 3243.09, up +10.96 points in these moments. In addition, the S&P 500 is trading in positive territory, operating at 1548.72, ascending +4.74 points or +0.31% at the time of writing. Finally, the Dow Jones has moved higher at the opening, trading in the zone of 14382.71, presently +0.37% after a movement of +53.12 points.

Sectors are all green currently, however the Capital Goods and Transportation sectors have distinguished themselves as main winners thus far, jumping +0.76% and +0.72% respectively. In other news, the price of crude has settled below USD $91.43/bbl Friday.

 

 

 

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Mar 08, 2013

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Session Recap: Strong nonfarm payrolls boost the greenback

 

 

The main feature of the session was the US nonfarm payrolls report which came in surprisingly strong, boosting the greenback versus main competitors except for the loonie. The government reported the US economy added 236,000 new jobs, against 160,000 expected, while the unemployment rate fell to 7.7%, 5-year low, from 7.9% the previous month.

 

Despite the risk appetite boost, which usually is negatively correlated to the USD, the greenback surged as the positive figures lower prospects of further easing by the Fed. Unemployment rate is inching closer to the Fed's 6.5% target for when it will consider withdrawing easing measures.

 

Main Headlines in Europe (in chronological order):

 

Switzerland: Inflation up 0.3% in February, as expected

 

Forex Flash: What does EUR/USD has to offer? – UBS and Commerzbank

 

UK: Consumer Inflation Expectations up 3.6% in March

 

Greece: Inflation rises 0.1% in January

 

Fundamental Morning Wrap: Draghi plays chicken for structural reform as NFP climb expected

 

Germany: Annual Industrial Production decline accelerates in January

 

IMF's Lagarde upbeat on Ireland's economic prospects

 

Euro looks to Payrolls for extra boost

 

European markets resume yesterday's sentiment, US futures up ahead of NFP

 

ECB and BoE easing risks remain finely balanced - TD Securities

 

US: NFP rose to 236K in February

 

Canada: Unemployment remained at 7.0% in February

 

USD/JPY soars above 96.50 on strong NFP

 

Commodities Brief – Precious metals decline sharply following upbeat US payroll data, crude held in check

 

Forex: EUR/USD hits fresh 3-month low

 

American equity markets edge higher on upbeat US data

 

 

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Fundamental Afternoon Wrap: NFPs roar

 

 

A understandably quiet afternoon for institutional research has seen an obvious focus on NFPs which shattered expectations and some reflection on Draghi´s performance yesterday and the implications looking forward.

 

USD

 

BNP Paribas economist Alexandra Estiot comments on today's impressive NFP numbers commenting the trend is good and supportive for households’ purchasing power and confidence. However, they are not expecting the Fed to react yet. Marc Chandler of BBH notes that the US jobs data was consistent with the recent string of data, clearly showing a surprising resilience to the anticipation of tightening of fiscal policy. Rob Carnell of ING notes that following today´s NFPs he feels that the near term market reaction will be to sell the back end of the yield curve, and for equities and the dollar to rally, most notably against JPY and GBP:

 

EUR

 

Reflecting on yesterdays ECB meet, the European economics team at BAML comment that the policy statement was as usual bland but that he highlighted the point that the ECBs policy was extremely accommodative and how committed the ECB is to maintaining its stance. The interesting part for them was the near near commitment to monetary policy by Draghi, by ensuring that it would keep liquidity available at low rates for as long as necessary and would monitor short term “eonia, both spots and forwards.” Brown Brothers Harriman analysts comment on the resilience of the Italian asset markets, despite the lack of progress towards political clarity.

 

 

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Mar 08, 2013

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China Urban investment (YTD) (YoY) up to 21.2% in Feb from 20.6%

 

 

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Mar 09, 2013

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Forex: USD/CAD retraces intraday gains

 

 

The dollar continued to lose ground versus commodity currencies and the euro at the beginning of the NY session in a sudden spark of risk appetite, although with no clear catalyst, dragging USD/CAD back to opening levels.

 

After failing to overcome the 1.0280 area, USD/CAD turned lower and dropped nearly 25 pips within the last minutes, erasing most intraday gains. At time of writing, the cross is quoting around 1.0265, just a few pips above its opening price.

 

As for technical levels, the Mataf.net sees immediate supports at 1.0250 and 1.0230, while they place resistances at 1.0280, 1.0315 and 1.0335.

 

 

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Mar 12, 2013

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Forex Flash: NZD/USD buy on dips – Rabobank

 

 

The kiwi dollar is bouncing off session lows in the vicinity of 0.8230, gathering traction to the boundaries of 0.8260, ahead of the RBNZ meeting due tomorrow.

 

According to Jane Foley, Currency Strategist at Rabobank, the NZD is facing opposing forces coming from the current drought hitting the North Island, the fiscal austerity and the strong kiwi weighting on the exports sector on one side, and positive momentum in the construction sector from the Christchurch rebuild, on the other.

 

Although consensus remains for the central bank to leave the refi rate unchanged, market participants expect the RBNZ to hike rates at some point during this year. “Despite the relatively high value of the NZD, in view of investors’ continued demand for yield we expect the NZD to hold its ground vs. the USD this year. We would look to buy NZD/USD on dips and expect a re-test of the year’s high in the USD/NZD0.8535 on a 3 to 6 mth region”, concluded Foley.

 

 

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Mar 12, 2013

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Forex: EUR/USD pulls back to 1.3040 after NY opening

 

 

The EUR/USD climbed the chart in time for the New York opening, having reached the 1.3074 high, but later taking profits on the up move and easing to 1.3040 area, where it is currently sitting.

 

In the week ending at March 3, the yearly rise of the Redbook index was from 2.2% to 2.7% after a weekly change of +0.6%.

 

February business optimism rose from 88.9 to 90.8 in February, but market consensus was aiming at 91.3, which means a disappointing result according to NFIB data.

 

Germany WPI came in at 0.1% in February (MoM), below 0.3% consensus. CPI and HICP came in at 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively, as expected. France current account deficit widened from €-3.8B (revised from €-3.6B) to €-5B in January.

 

“I think today the pair may grow up a little bit to reach the level of 1.0335 and then reach a new minimum again, this time at 1.2940”, wrote Roboforex.com analyst Igor Sayadov, expecting the pair to start moving upwards and form a pivot point for a reverse. “The next targets may be at the levels of 1.3190 and 1.3400”, he added.

 

 

 

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Mar 12, 2013

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Forex: EUR/USD pulls back to 1.3040 after NY opening

 

 

The EUR/USD climbed the chart in time for the New York opening, having reached the 1.3074 high, but later taking profits on the up move and easing to 1.3040 area, where it is currently sitting.

 

In the week ending at March 3, the yearly rise of the Redbook index was from 2.2% to 2.7% after a weekly change of +0.6%.

 

February business optimism rose from 88.9 to 90.8 in February, but market consensus was aiming at 91.3, which means a disappointing result according to NFIB data.

 

Germany WPI came in at 0.1% in February (MoM), below 0.3% consensus. CPI and HICP came in at 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively, as expected. France current account deficit widened from €-3.8B (revised from €-3.6B) to €-5B in January.

 

“I think today the pair may grow up a little bit to reach the level of 1.0335 and then reach a new minimum again, this time at 1.2940”, wrote Roboforex.com analyst Igor Sayadov, expecting the pair to start moving upwards and form a pivot point for a reverse. “The next targets may be at the levels of 1.3190 and 1.3400”, he added.

 

 

 

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Mar 12, 2013

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Troika negotiating a smaller bailout with Cyprus

 

According to Newswires, officials have said that the Troika mission is negotiating a significantly smaller bailout with the Cyprus government on the back of a higher privatization proceeds.

The bailout would be of EUR 10B instead of the EUR 17B expected by expert. This change would help to bring debt-to GDP ratio to 100% in 2020.

 

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.3030 after declining from 1.3070 in the last two hours. Against the Pound, the Euro is declining hard from 0.8790 to the 0.8735.

 

 

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Mar 12, 2013

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Forex Flash: US inflation rate of 2% likely in the cards – NAB

 

 

 

With FOMC members also expecting - consistent with their longer-term objective - inflation of around 2.0% this equates to a real (i.e. after inflation) interest rate of around 2-2.25% which is around our view; albeit slightly higher. Is a 2% inflation rate going forward reasonable?

 

According to the NAB Research Team, “There are certainly tail risks of higher inflation given that the Fed is in unchartered waters regarding how to exit from its QE strategy. Upside risks are also implied by the Fed’s aim of holding interest rates low for longer than would normally be the case as the economic recovery strengthens. However, at this stage, the Fed is being backed to hold the line on inflation.”

 

 

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Mar 13, 2013

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Forex: USD/CHF in session highs above 0.9500

 

 

 

The cross quickly left behind the key resistance at 0.9500 on Wednesday, boosted by the upbeat data from the US retail sales, trading at the moment in the upper end of today’s range around 0.9525/30

 

According to I.Spivak, Currency Strategist at DailyFX, “Prices slipped back below the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 0.9496, with negative RSI divergence warning a pullback maybe ahead. Near-term support is at 0.9426, with a break below that targeting 0.9349. Alternatively, a push back above 0.9496 eyes the March 8 high at 0.9551 and the 61.8% retracement at 0.9608”.

 

As of writing, the pair is up 0.56% at 0.9527 facing the next resistance at 0.9552 (high Mar.8) ahead of 0.9581 (high Sep.7 2012) and then 0.9598 (high Sep.6 2012).

On the downside, a break below 0.9430 (low Mar.13) would bring 0.9420 (MA200d) en route to 0.9410 (low Mar.7).

 

 

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Mar 13, 2013

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Forex: USD/CAD settles below 1.0300

 

 

 

Despite the rally witnessed at the beginning of the American session, the dollar failed to break above the 1.0300 level against its Canadian counterpart, and settled within a lower range, where it has spent the last hours in quiet consolidation.

 

USD/CAD peaked at 1.0294 but lost momentum, although with the subsequent setback being contained by the 1.0270 area, the pair is currently trading around 1.0280/90, still up 0.3% on the day.

As for technical levels, once above 1.0300, USD/CAD could face next resistances at 1.0330 (Mar 7 high) and 1.0345 (2013 high). On the other hand, supports are now seen at 1.0245 (intraday low), 1.0235 (Mar 8 low) and 1.0200 (psychological level).

 

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Mar 13, 2013

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SNB keeps minimum exchange rate unchanged in March

 

 

 

The Swiss National Bank decided to leave the minimum exchange rate unchanged at CHF 1.20 per euro on Thursday and “will continue to enforce it with the utmost determination,” as it is stated in the official document released after the decision was made known.

 

The SNB explained that the CHF is still high and its further appreciation would adversely affect the Swiss economy, thus an increase in the currency will not be permitted.

 

The target range for the three-month Libor rate was also maintained at 0.0–0.25%.

 

 

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Mar 14, 2013

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American equity markets rise after upbeat jobless claims

 

 

 

The US Stock market opened higher Thursday as further signs of a recovery across the US labor market were confirmed with better-than-expected data. In particular, Initial Jobless Claims (March 10) came in at only 332K, against expectations of 350K. Moreover, the Producer Price Index (YoY) grew +1.7% in February, in line with consensus projections. Finally, the Producer Price Index ex-Food and Energy yielded a figure of +0.2% in February, matching expectations of +0.2%.

 

Beginning with the indices and composites, the NASDAQ rose +0.35% as it settles in region of 3256.75, up +11.22 points in these moments. In addition, the S&P 500 is trading in positive territory, operating at 1560.50, ascending +6.05 points or +0.39% at the time of writing. Finally, the Dow Jones has edged higher at the opening, trading in the zone of 14482.30, presently +0.19% after a movement of +27.02 points.

 

Sectors are all positive currently, however the Energy and Technology sectors have distinguished themselves as main winners thus far, rising +0.59% and +0.51% respectively. In other news, the price of crude has settled below USD $92.67/bbl Thursday.

 

 

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Mar 14, 2013

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Forex Flash: US growth expected to accelerate in 2014 – Goldman Sachs

 

 

According to the Economics Research Team at Goldman Sachs, “We expect below-trend annual growth of +1.8% in 2013 and an acceleration to +2.9% in 2014. Growth should then remain slightly above that rate in 2015 and 2016. On an annualized sequential basis, we expect a rebound to +2.3% in 2013Q1 and a slowdown to +1.5% and +2% in 2013Q2 and Q3, before a pick-up to +2.5% in the last quarter of the year.”

 

Looking into 2014 and beyond, we expect above-trend growth at around +3%-3.5%. “Our forecast for near-term weakness but long-term strength is based on competing impulses from the private and public sectors. In Q2 and Q3, we expect the frontloaded ‘sequester’ to be a significant drag on growth, while in the intermediate and long term we see further strength in the private sector, led by the ongoing housing recovery, rising business investment and financial rebalancing in the household sector.” the team adds.

 

 

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Mar 14, 2013

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Forex Flash: US growth expected to accelerate in 2014 – Goldman Sachs

 

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - In light of the recent run-up in US equities, it bears the question if such an influx in returns is stable or additional growth is possible. Indeed, U.S. economic growth will have to accelerate to “ridiculously strong levels” to justify any advance for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) above the 1,600 level, wrote Jim O’Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

 

After already gaining 9.6% this year, the S&P 500 is trading at 1,563.23, less than 2 points from a record and within 3% of 1,600. According to O’Neill, an estimate of 1,575 for the U.S. equity benchmark this year. The world’s biggest economy is forecast to grow 1.9% in 2013 and 2.7% next year. “In order to justify the S&P above 1,600, we’d have to see growth expectations go to something like 4% and beyond,” O’Neill said in a recent interview. “I don’t see persistent upside from those kind of levels without some more evidence that the economy would be growing by ridiculously strong levels.” The S&P 500, which has more than doubled from its bottom in 2009, will trade in a range between 1,500 and 1,600, O’Neill said, without specifying a time period.

 

Despite this recent growth, the USD index found itself in retreat after 6 straight weeks of advancement. This in turn has helped hurt most USD crosses as the EUR/USD found itself advancing today at weekly highs at 1.3108 Friday. Additionally, the USD/JPY found itself in a freefall as the pair lost its grip on the 96.00 level and recently settled at 95.51 during US trading.

 

 

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Mar 15, 2013

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