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NZD/USD rises modestly, sill below 0.6600

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - NZD/USD gained momentum during the last hours and extended gains. The pair printed a fresh daily high at 0.6579. It remains trading near the highs, above 0.6570. 

 

Despite today’s gains, NZD/USD remains limited, attempting to recover after ending lower last week. The outlook remains sideways with the pair holding above 0.6500 and unable to consolidate on top of 0.6600. 

 

Wednesday, key day for NZD/USD

 

In the US, the main report today was the NY Empire manufacturing index, that dropped from 3.86 to -14.92 in August, weakening the US dollar. Tomorrow will be the turn of housing data. While on Wednesday attention will lie on the CPI index and Federal Reserve minutes.

 

In New Zealand, on Wednesday, inflation information from the second quarter will be release. And on Tuesday the GDT index (a measure of dairy price products) that could impact the pair. 

 

 

 

 

Aug 17,2015

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Turkey’s Central Bank keeps key rates on hold

 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The central bank of Turkey (TCMB) kept key interest rates unchanged on Tuesday amid the volatile political situation in the country and persisting uncertainty. 

 

The monetary policy committee of the Turkish central bank decided on Tuesday to keep its one-week repo rate at 7.50% and the overnight borrowing rate at 7.25%, unchanged from July. The overnight lending rate was also kept at 10.75%, while the primary dealers' overnight borrowing rate remained at 10.25%. 

 

The central bank noted in its statement, "Loan growth continues at reasonable levels in response to the tight monetary policy stance and macro prudential measures. The favorable developments in the terms of trade and the moderate course of consumer loans contribute to the improvement in the current account balance," 

 

"External demand remains weak, while domestic demand contributes to growth moderately. The Committee assesses that the implementation of the announced structural reforms would contribute to the potential growth significantly." 

 

"Future monetary policy decisions will be conditional on the improvements in the inflation outlook. Inflation expectations, pricing behavior and other factors that affect inflation will be monitored closely and the cautious monetary policy stance will be maintained, by keeping a flat yield curve, until there is a significant improvement in the inflation outlook.”

 

On Monday, Economy Minister Nihat Zeybekci said, ‘Interest rates need to fall’, reviving the earlier attempts of the Turkish government to influence the central bank. 

 

 

 

 

Aug 18,2015

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Sell rallies in AUD/USD – Rabobank

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank recommends selling the pair on occasional bullish attempts.

 

Key Quotes

 

“While the timing of last week’s plunge in the CNY took us by surprise, we have been calling for a weakening in the value of the CNY vs. the USD for some time as the Chinese authorities seek to more closely align the value of the currency to the forces of slow growth and disinflation”.

 

“On the back of the move, we have revised up our forecasts for USD/CNY to 6.70 on a 12 mth view and, while we are forecasting that AUD/CNY could hold relative stable near current levels in the coming 12 months, this view is based on our assumption that AUD/USD will fall towards 0.69”.

 

“Concerns over Chinese growth are being mixed concerns over a faltering economy recovery in Japan with a worsening growth outlook for Indonesia”.

 

“Against this backdrop we still see scope for further RBA easing this cycle and look to sell AUD/USD into rallies. Initial resistance is likely to be provided by the 100 and 200 day smas near AUD/USD0.7370”. 

 

 

 

Aug 18,2015

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TRY poised for further declines – TDS

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Cristian Maggio, Head of EM Strategy at TD Securities, assessed today’s decision by the CBRT to keep the monetary stance unchanged.

 

Key Quotes


“My first impression is that the CBRT has fallen short of market expectations. This comes as a natural conclusion even just looking at the market reaction after the document was published. New USDTRY all time high at 2.8941. The pair is now trading just above 2.89 but, unless the CBRT puts some substance to these promises, the lira is unlikely to receive great support going forward.

 

“I’m not quite sure if the goal is still stabilize the lira or just let it go weaker to help the economic rebalancing. Certainly the CBRT will have to consider the implications for the corporate sector that has large USD exposure via foreign debt. And the fact that Erdogan’s adviser Cemil praised the CBRT’s decision (‘brave’ and ‘appropriate’) shortly after the announcement today, leaves me with that bitter taste of something that doesn’t feel good but you don’t quite get what is wrong with it”.

 

“For now, we stick to our negative opinion on rates and currency (we see USDTRY to 3.0 in the short term and higher towards 3.30/3.35 in the coming 10 months), on the backdrop of a messy political situation that sets almost certainly Turkey for early elections. Another 5 days to figure that out”. 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug 18,2015

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GBP/USD remains close to 1.5700

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling keeps the buoyant tone on Tuesday, taking GBP/USD to the area of daily tops in the 1.5700 neighbourhood.

 

GBP/USD bolstered by UK data 

 

Despite the upside momentum of the US dollar, the sterling derived support from the better-than-expected inflation figures released earlier in the UK economy, where consumer prices came in higher than initially anticipated for the month of July.

 

Spot quickly clinched multi-week tops beyond 1.5700 the figure, managing (so far) to break above the tough resistance area around 1.5680.

 

GBP/USD key levels

 

At the moment the pair is up 0.68% at 1.5693 with the next resistance at 1.5719 (high Aug.18) ahead of 1.5734 (high Jul.1) and then 1.5789 (high Jun.29). On the other hand, a breach of 1.5562 (low Aug.18) would open the door to 1.5536 (low Aug.12) and finally 1.5500 (psychological level). 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug 18,2015

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Franc to depreciate in the longer run – SNB’s Jordan

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - SNB President Thomas Jordan has once again reiterated that the Swiss franc is expected to weaken in the upcoming periods.

 

At the same time, and as usual, he stressed that the central bank stays ready to intervene if necessary.  

 

 

 

 

 

Aug 20,2015

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Speculation about snap elections in Greece - unconfirmed

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - There are some unconfirmed rumours circulating in Twitter mentioning a possible resignation from Greek PM Alexis Tsipras and call snap elections tonight. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug 20,2015

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USD/JPY remains capped below 124.00 after US data

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY continues to trade within its daily range, unable to set short-term-direction, and having shrugged off the latest string of US data.

 

On the data front, US existing home sales rose 2.0% in July to 5.59 million, reaching its highest level since February 2007. Meanwhile, the Philly Fed manufacturing index rose to 8.3 in the same month, beating expectations of 7.0. Earlier, US jobless claims came in at 277K versus 272K expected, standing near low levels. 

 

However, the dollar failed to benefit from strong data after the FOMC minutes didn’t leave clear if the Fed is ready to hike rates in September. 

 

USD/JPY is currently trading at 123.90, 0.1% above its opening price, having recovered from a 3-week low of 123.68 scored on Wednesday. However, with the upside capped by 124.15, the pair has been confined to a phase of consolidation.

 

USD/JPY levels to watch

 

In terms of technical levels, USD/JPY could find immediate supports at 123.68 (Aug 19 low) and 123.60 (50-day SMA). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 124.15/20 (Aug 20 high/21-day SMA), 124.45 (Aug 19 high) and 124.61 (Aug 13 high). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug 20,2015

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USD/CNY neutral in the short term – BTMU

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at BTMU keep the neutral stance on the pair for the upcoming week.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Unless US Fed Vice Chairman Fischer shocks markets back to September we are beginning to shift towards trading as if lift-off could be December”.

 

“That feels like a headwind against more USD strength next week, which used to not matter for USD/CNY but that was before the renminbi’s regime change”.

 

“PBOC in its stabilization campaign also seems to be leaning a bit to the downside”. 

 

“Whether the Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI # can sustain the recovery seen in its MNI counterpart, however, will be important as to whether PBOC can cement expectations”. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug 20,2015

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EUR/USD gathers pace and hits 2-month highs

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD picked up fresh momentum and extended gains to fresh 2-month highs as the dollar continues to suffer on the back of FOMC minutes and the euro is among the best performers.

 

EUR/USD broke above the 1.1300 level on Friday and rose through the 200-day SMA to reach its highest level since Jun 22 at 1.1352 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1350, recording a 0.97% gain on Friday. 

 

EUR/USD levels to watch

 

As for technical levels, next resistances are seen at 1.1400 (psychological level), 1.1409 (Jun 22 high) and 1.1435 (Jun 18 high). On the other hand, supports could be found at 1.1228 (Aug 21 low), 1.1213 (Aug 12 high) and 1.1200 (psychological level). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug 21,2015

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CNY expected to drop further – Danske Bank

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analysts at Danske Bank see the Chinese currency losing further ground in the next weeks.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The main implications of China’s new exchange-rate policy are that the link to the USD has weakened and the exchange rate has become more dependent on growth and monetary policy in China”.

 

“In our view, China is not aiming for a major competitive devaluation. However, relative monetary policy between China and the US suggests that the CNY will continue to depreciate and we expect it to depreciate by close to 5% against USD in the next 12M”.

 

“In the short run however, we expect the PBoC to keep the CNY in a tight grip ahead of the IMF’s decision on SDR this autumn. Hence, we only expect it to depreciate slightly on a 1M and 3M horizon”. 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug 21,2015

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Bears grip European markets, sell-off resumes

 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - European indices resumed its downward spiral on Wednesday after the recovery seen yesterday, as the latest effort by the Chinese central banks seems to have failed to prop up the stock markets with the Shanghai composite index flipping back in to the red zone at close.

 

Losses came after US stocks ended Tuesday's session sharply lower, failing to keep the rally following the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) action.

 

The central bank cut the RRR by 50 basis points, and slashed both the deposit and lending rates by 25 basis points in response to the latest huge market sell-off.

 

While some stocks in Asia rebounded on Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite index closed the session 1.3% lower, even after it had edged up for most part of trading hours.

 

Markets also seem to have ignored the latest PBOC announcement that the central bank will inject 140 billion yuan into the financial system through a short-term liquidity adjustment operation.

 

Germany's DAX 30 index drops -1.31% to 9995 while the UK benchmark FTSE 100 loses -1.45% to trade at 5993. Among the other indices, the French CAC 40 index is down nearly -1.50% and trades at 4497, and the pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 also slips -1.6% to 3,166. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug 26,2015

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EUR/USD: parity now unlikely by year-end – BTMU

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at BTMU, sees the possibility of the pair reaching the parity level by year end quite unlikely at the moment.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Our bearish EUR/USD view will have to be adjusted to take account of this financial market turmoil triggered by the renminbi devaluation. Extreme risk aversion has clearly resulted in a further liquidation of euro short speculative positions, surely partly versus the renminbi, and hence our current year-end forecast of parity looks difficult to achieve”.

 

“However, the profile will still certainly remain for the euro to move lower. The relative monetary policy factor has weakened due to the financial market turmoil given the markets were close to positioned for a September rate increase but the deflationary shock stemming from the turmoil is more worrying for the ECB than it is for the Federal Reserve”. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug 26,2015

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USD/CAD flirting with 1.3300

 

 


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is now recovering some ground lost vs. its Canadian counterpart on Wednesday, with USD/CAD looking to regains the vicinity of 1.3300 the figure.

 

USD/CAD rebounds after US releases

 

The dollar found further support after US Durable Goods Orders surpassed initial estimates during July, expanding at a monthly pace of 2.0% vs. -0.4% forecasted and advancing 0.6% MoM excluding the Transportation sector.

 

The current recovery in crude oil prices is lending CAD some support, offering some respite amidst the ongoing weakness surrounding the commodities-related currencies.

 

USD/CAD levels to consider

 

At the moment the pair is losing 0.32% at 1.3294 with the immediate support at 1.3249 (low Aug.26) ahead of 1.3144 (low Aug.25) and then 1.3060 (low Aug.21). On the upside, a surpass of 1.3351 (high Aug.26) would expose 1.3400 (psychological level). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug 26,2015

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AUD/USD oscillates above 0.7100

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD has entered a consolidative phase on Wednesday, having steadied following sharp moves at the beginning of the week when the Aussie posted fresh 6-year low at 0.7036 on the back of a risk-off wave.

 

AUD/USD managed to recover from multi-year lows but the upside was capped by the 0.7250 zone on Tuesday confining the pair to a narrow range. At time of writing, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7125, little changed since opening.

 

AUD/USD technical perspective

 

“The pair is short term neutral, with the price struggling around a bearish 20 SMA and the technical indicators lacking directional strength around their mid-lines”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “In the 4 hours chart, however, the bearish bias prevails, with the price well below a strongly bearish 20 SMA and the technical indicators turning back south after a limited upward correction in positive territory”.

 

Bednarik locates immediate support levels at 0.7095, 0.7050 and 0.7010, while she sees resistances at 0.7150, 0.7200 and 0.7240. 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug 26,2015

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EUR/USD back above 1.14000 on Dudley comments

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD broke below 1.1400 after the release of the US durable goods orders report that surpassed expectations. The pair bottomed at 1.1351, reaching the lowest level since last Friday. It remained trading near the lows amid a stronger USD dollar in the market, but then bounced to the upside, after W. Dudley comments, climbing back above 1.1400

 

The president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank said that a rate hike in September seem less compelling for him than what it was a few weeks ago. The comments reduced expectations about a rate hike by the Fed in September. Still, the NY Fed chairman hopes that the central bank can raise rates on 2015. 

 

EUR/USD back to Monday’s level 

 

Thanks to Dudley’s outlook EUR/USD rose back above 1.1400; before it was trading with support at 1.1350 and resistance below 1.1400, around the levels it closed last week. 

 

The euro surged on Monday, rising 400, surpassing momentarily 1.1700. It failed to hold and it pulled back sharply erasing all gains.  

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug 26,2015

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GBP/USD stages crushing decline

 


The 1-hour GBP/USD MACD series is sitting at extreme lows.

 

Recent plummeting GBP/USD price action has been highlighted by an above-average distance between MACD and its signal line. From a strategic standpoint, there could be further stomach-churning dips to endure, as well as brief relief rallies. The latest MACD print shows dissipation of downside momentum, thus reinforcing the second scenario. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug 26,2015

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EUR/USD drops to weekly lows after US GDP

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD came under renewed pressure and printed fresh 6-day lows after data showed US gross domestic product grew at a faster pace than initially estimated in the second quarter.

 

US GDP expanded at a 3.7% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the second quarter up from the initial estimate of 2.3% growth and beating expectations of a 3.2% rise. Meanwhile, the PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, rose 2.1% in the Q2 versus 2.0% expected.

 

As for employment, separated data showed US initial jobless claims dropped to 271K in the latest week down from 277K and versus 274K expected.

 

Investors are closely monitoring US economic data as the Fed has made it clear that the timing of the lift-off will be data dependent. 

 

The dollar strengthened across the board and dragged EUR/USD to a fresh low of 1.1248, last seen Aug 21. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1250, recording a 0.55% loss on the day and having already retraced all previous weekly gains. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug 27,2015

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FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD has continued to move lower and posted fresh 1-week lows at the beginning of the New York session as the dollar was bolstered by better-than-expected US GDP and jobless claims figures.

 

EUR/USD extended losses and bottomed out at 1.1225 and continues to trade near lows, almost 500 pips below its Monday peak of 1.1712. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1235, recording a 0.68% loss on the day. 

 

Investors are closely monitoring US economic data as the Fed has made it clear that the timing of the lift-off will be data dependent. Next on tap, data includes pending home sales and the Kansas Fed manufacturing index. 

 

EUR/USD technical levels

 

In terms of technical levels, EUR/USD could find next supports at 1.1213 (Aug 12 high), 1.1200 (psychological level) and 1.1130 (20-day SMA). On the flip side, resistances are seen at 1.1300 (psychological level), 1.1317 (200-day SMA) and 1.1364 (Aug 27 high). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug 27,2015

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EUR/USD Bulls are losing momentum

 

 

 

 

EUR/USD sellers stood their ground and buyers retreated in recent sessions as MACD (26, 12, 9) has fallen off below its median line.

 

On a 4hr chart, this technical condition may be taken by many trend-following traders as a trigger to liquidate long positions. 

 

The fact that the MACD hasn't been under zero for at least one week of trading, reinforces the argument that room for further EUR/USD depreciation is there.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug 27,2015

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OctaFX is so famous in the world due to this analysis service, I have seen a lot of brokers with this, but the kind of aura and attraction that this service has it is not found elsewhere. I am using it for all type of traders I do whether it’s for long term or scalping since such is the type of news they provide that it allows me to work well with connecting it to any type of the way I work with, so that’s really good for me or even others.

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