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GNZD/USD rises to 0.6650, eyes RBNZ

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The Kiwi and the euro are the best performers on Tuesday among major currencies. NZD/USD printed a fresh daily high during the American session at 0.6650, the strongest level in 6 days. 

 

The pair holds a bullish tone and is recovering for the second day in a row amid a weak US dollar, risk appetite and ahead of the monetary policy decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)

 

To cut (again) or not to? How much?

 

The central bank is expected to cut again the Official Cash Rate (OCR) like it did during the last meeting as the outlook for the NZ economy continues to worsen. Most analysts expect a decline of 25 basis points to 3% in the OCR. 

 

“It is expected to signal scope for additional rate cuts. After talking the Kiwi lower, recent comments have noted the speed of its decline. That, and the suggestion that milk prices will rebound, have helped spur a bounce in the currency. It is nearly 2% off the lows seen yesterday”, wrote analysts from Brown Brothers Harriman. According to them around 0.6700 “sellers will re-emerge”. 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

July 21,2015

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WTI retreats from $51.00

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After hitting session tops around the $51.00 mark, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate has now returned to the mid-$50.00s.

 

WTI firmer on offered dollar

 

The softer tone in the greenback has allowed today’s recovery in crude oil prices, advancing for the first time after four straight sessions in red.

 

While concerns over the current supply glut remain far from abated, expectations of a drop in tomorrow’s EIA report on crude inventories could be collaborating with today’s upside. 

 

WTI levels to watch

 

At the moment WTI is up 0.74% at $50.75 with the next resistance at $52.54 (high Jul.16) followed by $53.94 (high Jul.15) and then $54.35 (high Jul.10). On the flip side, a breakdown of $49.47 (low Apr.6) would aim for $48.11 (low Apr.2) and finally $47.05 (low Apr.1). 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

July 21,2015

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SARB could hike rates on Thursday – TDS

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategist at TD Securities Paul Fage expects the South African Reserve Bank to hike its benchmark rate by 25 bp.

 

Key Quotes

 

“We think the SARB rate decision on Thursday, 23 July, is a very close call, but on balance we think the SARB will hike its key policy rate, the repo rate, by 25bps. The consensus is also for the SARB to hike by 25 bps, but 13/30 of the economists surveyed expect no change”.

 

“Growth remains anaemic, but the SARB has often stated that the ability of monetary policy to stimulate the economy is limited given supply constraints”.

 

“At the May meeting the MPC adopted a clearly hawkish stance, with two of the six members voting for a hike. We think that the SARB will want to maintain its credibility and try to anchor longer-term inflation expectations at a lower level by hiking sooner rather than later”.

 

“If the SARB does not hike on Thursday then we think that it is almost certain that they will hike in September, possibly in the wake of a Fed hike”. 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

July 21,2015

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USD/JPY drops to lows near 123.80

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is now accelerating its depreciation vs. its Japanese counterpart on Tuesday, sending USD/JPY to daily lows around 123.80.

 

USD/JPY down from 124.50

 

The pair keeps correcting lower after overnight tops in the mid-124.00s, following an increasing selling interest around the US dollar. The poor performance of US Treasuries since the European morning has been hurting the demand for the greenback, magnified amidst the current vacuum of data releases in the US economy.

 

Next of relevance in the pair will be US Existing Home Sales and Japanese trade balance figures, both due on Wednesday.

 

USD/JPY levels to consider

 

As of writing the pair is losing 0.59% at 123.80 with the next support at 123.38 (low Jul.15) ahead of 122.50 (low Jul.13) and finally 121.70 (low Jul.10). On the other hand, a break above 124.47 (high Jul.21) would open the door to 125.59 (high Jun.8) and then 125.85 (2015 high Jun.5). 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

July 21,2015

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GBP/USD bearish technical set-up - Scotiabank

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Scotiabank explained that GBP/USD's 200 DMA is under threat.

 

Key Quotes:

 

"A decisive break below the 50 day MA 1.5560 has shifted the focus to the 200 day MA at 1.5416. The 38.2% Fibo retracement of the April-June rally lies at 1.5409."

 

"Momentum indicators are bearish, albeit modestly so, and trend indicators have yet to provide confirmation. Resistance is expected at the 21 day MA 1.5599." 

 

 

  

 

July 21,2015

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USD/CAD weaker around 1.2950

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback continues to shed ground vs. its Canadian neighbour on Tuesday, dragging USD/CAD to the 1.2955/50 band.

 

USD/CAD bounced off 1.2920

 

After bottoming out in the 1.2920 region, spot managed to stage a rebound and regain the mid-1.2900s, although the performance remain well into the negative territory.

 

The renewed offered tone around the US dollar plus some sort of recovery in crude oil prices – supporting the demand for CAD – remains the almost exclusive drivers behind yesterday’s fresh cycle peaks near 1.3030.

 

USD/CAD key levels

 

The pair is now retreating 0.51% at 1.2954 with the immediate support at 1.2905 (low Jul.16) ahead of 1.2728 (low Jul.15) and then 1.2683 (low Jul.13). On the other hand, a break above 1.3008 (high Jul.17) would target 1.3012 (high Jul.21) en route to 1.3024 (2015 high Jul.20). 

 

 

  

 

July 21,2015

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Euro area government debt to GDP ratio rises in Q1 2015 - Eurostat

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - As per the data released by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, at the end of the first quarter of 2015 the government debt to GDP ratio in the Euro area stood at 92.9%, compared with 92.0% at the end of the fourth quarter of 2014.

 

In the whole bloc the ratio increased from 86.9% to 88.2%. Compared with the first quarter of 2014, the government debt to GDP ratio rose in both the euro zone (from 91.9% to 92.9%) and the whole EU (from 86.2% to 88.2%).

 

According to the Eurostat press release, at the end of the first quarter of 2015, "debt securities accounted for 79.1% of euro area and for 80.8% of EU general government debt. Loans made up 18.0% and 15.2% respectively and currency and deposits represented 2.9% of euro area and 3.9% of EU28 government debt." 

 

 

 

  

 

July 22,2015

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USD Index prints highs near 97.40

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The USD Index, which tracks the greenback vs. its main rivals, has now resumed its upside trend and is posting session tops in he 97.40/45 band.

 

USD Index focus on US data

 

After yesterday’s sharp sell-off to multi-day lows near the 97.00 handle, the buying interest seems to have returned to the dollar, pushing the index back towards the mid-97.00s so far.

 

In the data space, US Existing Home Sales are due next, with consensus expecting an increase to 5.4 M during June, or a 1.2% advance. In the meantime, market participants seem to have already digested and cashed up the recent USD gains, all ahead of the key FOMC meeting due next week.

 

USD Index relevant levels

 

As of writing the index is up 0.09% at 97.41 and a surpass of 98.46 (high Apr.21) would open the door to 99.36 (high Apr.15) and then 99.70 (high Apr.14). On the other hand, the immediate support aligns at 95.08 (low Jun.26) ahead of 94.86 (low Jun.30) and finally 94.72 (low Jun.29). 

 

 

 

  

 

July 22,2015

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Buy the dips in USD/JPY – Westpac

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategist at Westpac Robert Rennie recommends buying the pullbacks in the pair.

 

Key Quotes


“We have stuck with a USD/JPY buy dip bias for a number of weeks now”.

 

“To be sure, this bias has assumed that Greece would either be solved or kicked significantly down the road. That appears to be the case now, so that firms up the buy on dips view”.

 

“However, upside for us is based more on likely strong Q2 GDP in the US (Thursday next week) and disappointing Q2 GDP in Japan (Aug 17)”. 

 

  

 

July 23,2015

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BNZD/USD still seen at 0.62 by year-end – Westpac

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Imre Speizer, Strategist at Westpac, suggested the pair could grind lower towards the 0.62 handle by end of 2015.

 

Key Quotes

 

“We maintain our negative multi-month outlook for NZD/USD, but are less bearish in the near term”.

 

“A bounce to 0.6700 is possible during the week ahead, following the RBNZ’s hawkish surprise to markets today”.

 

“Speculative positioning is short NZD at records levels, according to the CFTC, and risks rebalancing, catalysed by the RBNZ’s lack of urgency implied by its guidance paragraph today”.

 

“The RBNZ also surprised the market by watering down its currency warning”. 

 

“Beyond such a positioning cleanout though, we expect NZ fundamentals to require an easing cycle taking the OCR to 2.0%. We target 0.6200 by year end”. 

 

  

 

July 23,2015

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US initial jobless claims drops to four decade low

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US labor department data released on Thursday showed the jobless claims last week dropped to the lowest in four decades, mainly on account of mid-year factory shutdowns and school vacations.

 

The initial jobless claims by 26,000 to 255,000 in the week ended July 18, the fewest since November 1973. The markets were expecting the initial jobless claims to drop to 280K from the previous week’s 281K. The initial jobless claims stayed below 300K for the 20th consecutive week. 

 

The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure than the weekly numbers, decreased to 278,500 last week, from 282,500. 

 

The jobless data, since early March, has been indicating the resilience in labor market despite the marked slowdown in the economy in the first quarter. The June payrolls data had shown the economy added by 223,000 in June following a 254,000 gain the prior month. The US jobless rate fell to a seven-year low of 5.3%. 

 

 

  

 

July 23,2015

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Gold bulls lose grip after US data

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold bulls ran out of steam after the US weekly jobless claims printed at the lowest level in four decades. The metal now trades around USD 1094/Oz, after having printed high of USD 1104.50/OIz earlier today. 

 

Upbeat labour data pushes treasury yields higher

 

The strong labor department data in the US pushed up the treasury yields across the curve, with relatively bigger gains at the short-end of the curve, which represents the rate hike expectations in the US. The 2-year yield currently trades 1.7 basis points higher at 0.723%. 

 

Consequently, the metal, which is known to have an inverse relationship with the short-end treasury yields, dipped to trade largely unchanged on the day around USD 1094/Oz. With no major data due for release in the US, the metal is likely to track the sentiment on the Wall Street and the movement in the USD index and treasury yields. 

 

Gold Technical Levels

 

The immediate resistance is located at the daily high of 1098.38 (hourly 50-MA) ahead of the major hurdle at 1107.69 (hourly 100-MA). On the flip side, support is seen at 1190.00 and 1086.94 (previous session’s low). 

 

  

 

July 23,2015

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EUR/JPY capped below 136 handle

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The cross in EUR/JPY remains heavily offered during the European session, largely on the back of broad euro weakness following weaker Euro zone manufacturing PMIs. 

 

EUR/JPY recovers from 135.54

 

Currently, the EUR/JPY pair trades -0.29% at 135.27, giving away 136 handle on tepid EZ data. The cross came under selling pressure after two of the euro zone's largest economies – Germany and France disappointed with their PMI readings. 

 

While USD/JPY trades water around 124 handle, completely ignoring broad based US dollar strength as markets now eye fresh cues from the upcoming US economic data later in the US session.

 

EUR/JPY Technical Levels

 

To the upside, the next resistance is located at 136 levels and above which it could extend gains 136.28 (Today’s High) levels. To the downside immediate support might be located at 134.90 below that at 134.57 levels. 

   

 

July 24,2015

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EUR/JPY capped below 136 handle

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The cross in EUR/JPY remains heavily offered during the European session, largely on the back of broad euro weakness following weaker Euro zone manufacturing PMIs. 

 

EUR/JPY recovers from 135.54

 

Currently, the EUR/JPY pair trades -0.29% at 135.27, giving away 136 handle on tepid EZ data. The cross came under selling pressure after two of the euro zone's largest economies – Germany and France disappointed with their PMI readings. 

 

While USD/JPY trades water around 124 handle, completely ignoring broad based US dollar strength as markets now eye fresh cues from the upcoming US economic data later in the US session.

 

EUR/JPY Technical Levels

 

To the upside, the next resistance is located at 136 levels and above which it could extend gains 136.28 (Today’s High) levels. To the downside immediate support might be located at 134.90 below that at 134.57 levels. 

   

 

July 24,2015

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EUR/USD challenges daily highs

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD has continue to recover from daily lows and retested daily highs at the 1.0990 area as the dollar gives up ground versus major competitors, while a sudden bout of EUR/CHF demand is helping the euro.

 

The dollar reacted negatively to below expectations new home sales data and has continued to move lower over the last hours. EUR/USD reached a session high of 1.0992 before pulling back slightly. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.0970, just a few pips below its opening price but still on track to post a modest weekly gain.

 

FOMC meeting eyed

 

With Greek short-term problems solved, for now, attention now turns to the Federal Reserve and the timing of the lift-off after Yellen reiterated earlier this month the bank was still on track to raise rates at some point this year. Next Wednesday the Fed concludes its 2-day policy meeting and investors will be looking for any change in Fed statement. 

 

EUR/USD technical levels

 

As for technical levels, immediate resistances are seen at 1.1000 (psychological level/100-day SMA), 1.1017 (Jul 23 high) and 1.1035 (Jul 15 high). On the downside, supports could be found at 1.0925/21 (Jul 24 & 23 low), 1.0900 (psychological level) and 1.0869 (Jul 22 low).   

   

 

July 24,2015

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EUR/USD challenges daily highs

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD has continue to recover from daily lows and retested daily highs at the 1.0990 area as the dollar gives up ground versus major competitors, while a sudden bout of EUR/CHF demand is helping the euro.

 

The dollar reacted negatively to below expectations new home sales data and has continued to move lower over the last hours. EUR/USD reached a session high of 1.0992 before pulling back slightly. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.0970, just a few pips below its opening price but still on track to post a modest weekly gain.

 

FOMC meeting eyed

 

With Greek short-term problems solved, for now, attention now turns to the Federal Reserve and the timing of the lift-off after Yellen reiterated earlier this month the bank was still on track to raise rates at some point this year. Next Wednesday the Fed concludes its 2-day policy meeting and investors will be looking for any change in Fed statement. 

 

EUR/USD technical levels

 

As for technical levels, immediate resistances are seen at 1.1000 (psychological level/100-day SMA), 1.1017 (Jul 23 high) and 1.1035 (Jul 15 high). On the downside, supports could be found at 1.0925/21 (Jul 24 & 23 low), 1.0900 (psychological level) and 1.0869 (Jul 22 low).   

   

 

July 24,2015

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Strong analysis is definitely the part of solution for many traders, it’s step ahead when it’s coming out from a trustworthy company like OctaFX, it’s really a sensational brokerage company with epic analysis that we could witness here, so that’s why I truly love and enjoy It and this allows me to freedom to be fearless and aim for bigger rewards while been pretty sure of not failing, so that’s why I love it so much and always suggest it to others also to follow it.

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Treasury yields drop ahead of the durable goods report

 

FXStreet (Mumbai)- The safe haven treasury prices rose, thereby pushing yields lower ahead of the data in the US, which could show core durable goods orders witnessed modest rebound in June. 

 

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note currently trades 4.3 basis points lower at 2.23%. The long-end treasury yields dropped after China’s Shanghai Composite index fell more than 8% to register its biggest single day fall since 2007. The drop also pushed major European equities lower. The major index futures also point to a weak opening on Wall Street. 

 

Investors now await the US durable goods orders report for June. The headline number is seen rising 3.00%, while the core figure is expected to rise 0.5%, after stalling in May. 

 

The data could influence the short-end - 2-year yield, which mimics short-term interest rate expectations in the US. At the moment, the yield is down 1.2 basis points at 0.67%. 

   

   

 

July 27,2015

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GBP/USD spikes to 1.5580, takes out 50-DMA resistance

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The bid tone on the GBP/USD ensured the spot rose above 1.5551 (50-DMA), triggering stops, which pushed the pair to a session high of 1.5585. 

 

Trades above hourly 200-MA

 

The bullish momentum appears strong as the spot trades above its hourly 200-MA currently located at 1.5578. The weakness in the treasury yields, coupled with the rise in Gold prices is supporting weighing over the USD. The sharp fall in the Chinese equities could have led the markets to speculate that Fed may put more emphasis on overseas turbulence in its policy statement on Wednesday, thereby hinting at a possible delay in the rate hike. 

 

Moreover, the upbeat durable goods report has been completely ignored by the markets. The focus now shifts to the UK second quarter preliminary GDP report due for release on Tuesday. 

 

GBP/USD Technical Levels

 

The immediate support is seen at 1.5551 (50-MA), under which the spot could re-test the daily low at 1.5490. On the other hand, a break above 1.5607 (23.6% Fib R of Apr-Jun rally) could open doors for 1.5671 (July 23 high). 

 

 

   

   

 

July 27,2015

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EUR/USD trades at 2-week highs above 1.1100

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD has retested European session highs at the 1.1110 zone helped by EUR/CHF demand while the USD continues to underperform ahead of the Federal Reserve monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

 

Following a brief corrective move, EUR/USD gathered pace and climbed to a high of 1.1111 roughly the same peak it reached earlier, but sellers continue to keep the upside limited. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1102, recording a 1.15% gain on Monday.

 

USD underperform across the board

 

The US dollar is among the worst performers of the day amid fears that unstable Chinese stock markets could delay the Federal Reserve lift-off. 

 

EUR/USD levels to watch

 

As for technical levels, if EUR/USD breaks decisively above 1.1110/12, next resistances line up at 1.1124 (Jul 9 high) and 1.1195 (Jul 13 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.0968 (Jul 27 low), 1.0925 (Jul 24 low) and 1.0900 (psychological level). 

 

 

   

   

 

July 27,2015

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