OctaFX_Farid Posted October 13, 2015 Author Share Posted October 13, 2015 Gold at fresh session lows, down 1%FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices extended losses to print a session low of USD 1152.60/Oz levels despite losses in the European equities and weak China data released earlier today.Technical sell-off underway?The drop appears to have been triggered by a failure to rise above strong offers at 1169 (Aug high) on Monday. The fundamental continue to remain in favour of the metal, since the weak China data triggered a wave of selling in the European stock markets.Ahead in the day, the yellow metal may find some support from the possible weakness in the US stocks. Fed’s Evans comments could also influence the yellow metal.Gold Technical LevelsThe immediate support is seen at 1147.10 (July 8 low), under which the metal could extend the drop to its 50-DMA at 1141.26. On the other side, a break above 1159.22 (hourly 50-MA) could see the metal re-test the previous session’s high of 1169. Oct 13,2015OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 13, 2015 Author Share Posted October 13, 2015 US Dollar trims loses, 95.00 on sight?FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index, continues to extend its recovery from session troughs in the 94.50 region, currently testing the vicinity of 94.80.US Dollar still suffers the dovish FOMCThe renewed offered tone around the dollar has gained further traction as of late, mainly in response to the recent FOMC minutes. At the same time, market expectations of a potential Fed’s lift-off by year-end keep losing ground in favour of a rate hike in January or March 2016, adding further downside pressure to the greenback.In the data space, NFIB’s Business Optimism index came in above estimates at 96.1 during September, ticking higher from August’s 95.9.In addition, Fed’s Bullard has argued that the ‘lift-off is appropriate despite challenges’.US Dollar significant levelsAs of writing the US Dollar Index is losing 0.07% at 94.82 facing the next support at 94.06 (low Sep.24) followed by 92.59 (low post-PBoC move Aug.24) and finally 90.00 (psychological level). On the upside, a break above 95.46 (Fibo 50% of 98.40-92.52) would open the door to 96.05 (200-day sma) and then 96.34 (downtrend from August tops). Oct 13,2015OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 14, 2015 Author Share Posted October 14, 2015 GBP/JPY at fresh session highs after UK dataFXStreet (Mumbai) - The GBP/JPY pair dropped to 182.74, before rushing back to a fresh session high of 183.55 levels after the UK data showed a drop in the unemployment rate but a slowdown in the wage growth.Sterling in demandThe drop in the UK unemployment rate to its lowest level since 2008 has triggered a broad based rally in sterling. The markets so far have ignored the slight slowdown in the UK wage growth and the uptick in the jobless claims.The pair took out the hourly 100-MA and 50-MA, but is having a tough time extend gains further as the Japanese Yen finds buyers amid the losses in the European equities.GBP/JPY Technical LevelsThe immediate resistance is seen at 183.73 (hourly 100-MA), followed by a hurdle at 183.86 (23.6% of 180.66-184.85) and 184.00 levels. On the lower side, support is seen at 183.34 (hourly 50-MA), 183.25 (hourly 200-MA & 38.2% of 180.66-184.85), under which the pair could re-test 183.00 handle. Oct 14,2015OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 14, 2015 Author Share Posted October 14, 2015 Euro showing remarkable resilience – RabobankFXStreet (Delhi) – Elwin de Groot, Senior Eurozone Strategist at Rabobank, notes that the Eurodollar briefly pushed through the 1.14 level, which is at the upper end of its trading range since May, when volatility in financial markets took off.Key Quotes“Despite ongoing speculation that the ECB may have to do more, reflected in 10y Bunds trading below 60bps again, the euro has been showing remarkable resilience. Of all markets, European money markets seem to be the most consistent these days, with Eonia and Euribor forwards trading close to record-lows.”“What’s more, overnight ECB lending to Eurozone banks fell to zero from Tuesday on Wednesday, for the first time since January 6. Interbank overnight lending also declined to near-YTD lows (EUR 11.6bn yesterday), which is largely a mirror image of the huge amount of excess liquidity (EUR 535bn) sloshing around.” Oct 14,2015OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 14, 2015 Author Share Posted October 14, 2015 German FM Schaeuble: Low interest rates are like a drug addiction - RabobankFXStreet (Mumbai) - The US dollar continues to get battered versus the Japanese currency in the mid-European trades, now keeping USD/JPY near fresh session lows struck below 119.50 – key levels.USD/JPY fails to rise above hourly 20-SMA and drops furtherCurrently, the USD/JPY pair trades -0.18% lower at 119.52, hovering in the close vicinity of the fresh two-week lows. USD/JPY finally broke below the key support located at 119.50, which opens doors for further declines, as the US dollar remains pressured on the back of dropping bets of Fed rate hike this year, with the recent dismal China data adding to the negative sentiment on global economic prospects.Moreover, safe-haven demand for the Japanese currency overshadowed the downbeat local news announced by the Japanese Cabinet office earlier on the day. The Japanese Government lowered its economic assessment for the first time since 2014, as published in its monthly report.In the day ahead, the major will remain influenced by the key US retail sales and PPI numbers while the broader market sentiment will also direct further moves.USD/JPY Technical levels to considerTo the upside, the next resistance is located at 119.83 (hourly 50-SMA) beyond which 120.07 (20-DMA) could be tested. Above the last, the pair could climb further towards 120.34/41 (daily R2 & 50-DMA). To the downside immediate support might be located at 119.50 (daily S1), below which 119.22-21 (Sept 29 & 24 Lows) could be exposed. A breach of the last, the pair could drop to 118.83 (Sept 8 Low) levels. Oct 14,2015OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 14, 2015 Author Share Posted October 14, 2015 ECB likely to dance on the Fed’s music – Deutsche BankFXStreet (Delhi) - David Folkerts-Landau, Group Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank, notes that the financial markets continue to be dominated by speculation over the timing of Fed rate hikes and concerns over the health of the global economy but, the Fed’s delay puts pressure on the ECB and BoJ to ease further and we now expect an extension of ECB QE in coming months.Key Quotes“Growth forecasts have been cut on the margin in recent months, reflecting lower expectations for the second half of the year in the US and a materially weaker outlook for Emerging Markets. The Fed’s focus on external risks in their decision not to hike in September stoked these concerns.”“Despite these revisions, we don’t share the widespread pessimism. Domestic demand fundamentals remain solid in the US and Europe, and data in China are far from suggesting a sharp slowdown – leaving the world’s three largest economies on reasonably sound footing. EM growth remains a worry, but typical EM crises are unlikely given better external resilience (e.g., higher foreign reserves).”“Risk assets have rallied in recent weeks as markets have pushed back the timing of the first Fed hike. The interplay between markets and the Fed actually presents a challenge: better data raise the odds of a Fed hike, tightening financial conditions and thus making a hike less likely. This circular interplay is not new however, and has not prevented the central bank from raising rates in the past.”“But the Fed first needs confirmation that the US economy remains on track and that downside risks to China are limited – something we expect in the next few months. Only then can the Fed more credibly signal that rate hikes are coming, leading the market to price these hikes and limiting the scope of the likely initial adverse reaction. This is still possible by December, but the likelihood has diminished.”“While a continuation of recent gains is possible, markets will remain volatile in the near-term as focus narrows on US and China macro data especially. Further clarity on the macro backdrop and path of monetary policy will be needed for the next leg up in risk assets.” Oct 14,2015OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 15, 2015 Author Share Posted October 15, 2015 US CPI preview: We are going negative – Deutsche BankFXStreet (Delhi) – Jim Reid, Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank, suggests that all eyes will be on the US this afternoon, with the September CPI print the highlight.Key Quotes“Consensus estimates are for a soft headline reading (-0.2% mom) which will be enough to drag the YoY back into deflationary territory at -0.1%. Estimates for the core are running at +0.1% mom, with the YoY rate unchanged at +1.8%.”“Away from this, we’ll also get initial jobless claims, October empire manufacturing, average weekly earnings, the Philly Fed business outlook print and the September monthly budget statement later tonight.”“Fedspeak wise we are due to hear from Bullard and Dudley, both due to speak at 3.30pm BST, followed by Mester later tonight (due 9.30pm BST). On the earnings front, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup are the banks due to report in the early afternoon, while Schlumberger (after the close) will be worth keeping an eye on as an early indicator into the energy sector.” Oct 15,2015OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 15, 2015 Author Share Posted October 15, 2015 EUR/USD drops as European stocks rallyFXStreet (Mumbai) - The bid tone on EUR weakened, making way for a correction in the EUR/USD pair after the European stocks cheered the drop in the Fed rate hike bets.Offered near 1.15The spot ran into offers near 1.1495 as the European stocks rallied, with the pan-European blue chip Euro Stoxx 50 index rising 1%. The drop to a session low of 1.1430 also marked a failure to sustain above 1.1475 (161.8% expansion of March low-March high-April low).Later in the day, the US CPI could alter Fed rate hike bets and sentiment in the stock markets and accordingly influence the EUR/USD pair.EUR/USD Technical LevelsThe immediate support is seen at 1.14, under which the spot could target 5-DMA at 1.1369.a break below the same could see the pair test 10-DMA at 1.1316. On the other side, a break above 1.1475 (161.8% expansion of March low-March high-April low), could see the pair test offers at 1.15 levels. Oct 15,2015OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 15, 2015 Author Share Posted October 15, 2015 Additional set of instruments necessary – ECB’s NowotnyFXStreet (Mumbai) - The European Central Bank member Nowotny was on the wires stating that the bank is clearly missing its inflation target and thus a new set of instruments are necessary.Speaking in Warsaw Nowotny said "In my view it's quite obvious that additional sets of instruments are necessary". Nowotny added that core inflation is also below bank’s target and that new instruments are to include structural measures.Oct 15,2015OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 15, 2015 Author Share Posted October 15, 2015 Abenomics first two arrows are a success – Japan’s SugaFXStreet (Mumbai) - Japanese government’s Chief cabinet secretary Suga, while speaking to Bloomberg, hailed the first two arrows – fiscal stimulus, monetary easing - of Abenomics as a success.Suga added that the third arrow – structural reforms – will take more time over mid-long term. Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is the most important part of third Arrow, said Suga, while stating further that TPP agreement means Japan economy can take a leap forward.Oct 15,2015OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 15, 2015 Author Share Posted October 15, 2015 USD/JPY upside appears capped around 119.60 – OCBC FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the view of Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank, occasional bullish attempts in USD/JPY could face strong resistance at 119.60.Key Quotes“In the current environment, the pair is expected to remain inherently top heavy, especially if dollar vulnerability is mated with underlying risk aversion”.“A sustained breach of 118.60 may risk a subsequent decay towards 118.00 while 119.60 may cap in the near term”.Oct 15,2015OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 15, 2015 Author Share Posted October 15, 2015 USD/JPY door open for a test of 116.87 – Commerzbank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the view of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, the current downside in spot could extend towards the 116.87 level.Key Quotes“USD/JPY is side-lined but also under pressure in a 118.60- 121.76 range. For now we will continue to target the 118.33 March low en route to the 2012-2015 116.87 uptrend”.“We look for this to hold the downside and provoke longer term recovery”.“Resistance above last week’s high at 120.57 can be seen along the 200 day moving average at 120.90”Oct 15,2015OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 GBP/USD: offered again at 100-DMAFXStreet (Mumbai) - Another attempt to take out 100-DMA in early Europe ran into offers again, pushing the GBP/USD pair back to 1.5470 levels.Weekly gain on cardsSterling is on track to score its second weekly gain on the back of an upbeat UK wage data and dismal US data. The spot had hit a low of 1.52 earlier this week, following which a spike in the buying interest pushed the pair to a weekly high of 1.5509 levels.Moreover, the USD was smoked right from the start of the week. Consequently, profit taking ahead of the weekend may keep the cable under pressure today. The US industrial production and consumer confidence figure may do little to change the direction in the pair.GBP/USD Technical LevelsThe immediate resistance is seen at 1.5486 (100-DMA), above which the pair could target 1.5509 (previous day’s high). A break above the same would expose 1.5568 (38.2% of Jul 14-Apr 15 plunge). On the lower side, a failure to take out 100-DMA could push the spot back to 1.5404 (50-DMA).Oct 16,2015OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 USD/CHF risks a pullback to 0.9358/0.9260 – Commerzbank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the view of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, the pairs could re-visit the area of 0.9358/0.9260 in the near term.Key Quotes“USD/CHF’s still oscillates around the 200 day ma at .9518 and near term risk remains for losses to the .9358/.9260 five month support line and recent low, from where we would expect to see signs of recovery”.“Rallies will find initial resistance at the .9646 13 October high”.Oct 16,2015OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 European stocks rise for second dayFXStreet (Mumbai) - The European stocks extended the risk-on rally for the second day on Thursday on rising prospects of a prolonged period of low interest rates in the US.At the time of writing, the pan-European Euro Stoxx 600 index advanced 0.7%. Among regional indices, Germany’s DAX and London’s FTSE were up 0.9% each. France’s CAC also strengthened 0.7%.Among Stoxx 600 shares, Hugo Boss AG fell 9.7% after the German fashion label cut its sales and earnings forecasts for the year. Meanwhile, National Bank of Greece and Alpha Bank gained 65 and 5% respectively.Carrefour SA climbed 2.5% after reporting a gain in revenue, while Nestle SA declined 2.9% after the world’s largest food company reduced its annual revenue forecast.Oct 16,2015OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 GBP/USD finds good support near 1.5440FXStreet (Mumbai) - The recent selling pressure seen in the GBP/USD pair seems to ease, with the pair jumping back on the bids and hovers around hourly 50-SMA.GBP/USD pressured on the USD strengthThe GBP/USD pair trades modestly flat at 1.5457, bouncing-off a strong support of hourly S1 located at 1.5443. The major erased losses and now attempts a tepid-recovery ahead of the speech to be delivered by BOE MPC member Kristin Forbes later this session.Moreover, the broad based US dollar strength on the back of the renewed optimism over the US economic outlook continues to overshadow any gains backed by the risk-on rally in the European stocks.Later in the US session, the main focus will remain the consumer sentiment and industrial figures which are likely to provide further momentum on the cable.GBP/USD Levels to consider The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.5487/1.5500 (Todays High & round number) above which gains could be extended to 1.5531 (Sept 21 High & H1 R3). On the flip side, support is seen at 1.5413 (Oct 15 Low) below which it could extend losses to 1.5350/45 (10DMA & 200-DMA).Oct 16,2015OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 Keep your eyes on US industrial production and Michigan survey – RabobankFXStreet (Delhi) – Philip Marey, Senior US Strategist at Rabobank, suggests that in the US, the impact of the economic growth slowdown in China and other emerging economies will be reflected in the industrial production figure for September.Key Quotes“Industrial production fell during the first five months of the year due to the appreciation of the dollar and the decline in the oil price. In June, industrial production remained unchanged and July saw a short-lived rebound that came to an end in August when output fell by 0.4%. The consensus expectation is a further decline by 0.2%.”“Meanwhile, the University of Michigan survey for October will show how US consumer sentiment is affected by these developments. Earlier this week we saw a weak retail sales report for September that reflected the deterioration in consumer sentiment in the same month. The consensus expectation is a modest rebound in sentiment in October.”“Note that the inflation expectations in the survey are of special interest to the Fed. After all, as long as inflation expectations remain anchored, the current spell of low inflation is likely to be a transitory phenomenon.”Oct 16,2015OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 Majority of Fed’s voting members favour a 2015 lift-off - RAbobankFXStreet (Delhi) – Philip Marey, Senior US Strategist at Rabobank, suggests that if we look at the reactions of the voting members of the FOMC, there still seems to be a large majority that would like to hike before the end of the year. In the end, their case will depend on the data that we are going to see before the meeting on December 15 and 16, and that is still a lot, the analyst adds.Key Quotes“The US CPI data for September were better than expected by the market. Headline inflation slowed down to 0.0% in year-on-year terms, from 0.2% in August, but the consensus expectation of negative inflation (-0.1%) was averted.”“What’s more, core inflation – which excludes the volatile food and energy prices – unexpectedly rose to 1.9% from 1.8%. These data should bolster the Fed’s confidence that inflation will return to the 2% objective over the medium term.”“This was reinforced by the decline of US initial jobless claims to 255K after 262K a week before. This matches the 2015 low reached earlier in mid-July. Note that 255K is not only the lowest point of this year, but in fact the lowest since 1973. Despite the slowdown in the world economy, US businesses are keen to keep their personnel on board.”“Meanwhile, the first two US business surveys for October both indicated a deterioration, although at a milder pace than in September. However, the Empire manufacturing index (-11.4) and the Philly Fed index (-4.5) both fell short of consensus expectations.”“New York Fed President William Dudley, a permanent voter on the FOMC, acknowledged that the economy is slowing. Nevertheless, he still favors raising rates later this year if his forecasts are met.”Oct 16,2015OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.