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ECB’s QE to stay longer – Danske Bank

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analysts at Danske Bank see the possibility that the ECB could extend its current ‘quantitative easing’ programme beyond the original date of September 16th.

 

Key Quotes

 

“ECB President Draghi was very dovish at the latest meeting at the beginning of September and based on this we expect the ECB to extend QE purchases beyond September 2016”.

 

“Our changed expectation comes mainly from the fact that the ECB now projects headline inflation to be only around 0.9% in Q2 16 and 1.2% in Q3 16 when the ECB is set to end QE purchases”.

 

“In our view, the ECB will continue its purchases if inflation is around these levels and we continue to believe that the ECB is too optimistic on its outlook for core inflation, as slack in the labour market will still be a headwind to higher wage growth in 2016”. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep 16,2015

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EUR/USD drops to lows near 1.1160 ahead of European open




FXStreet (Mumbai) - EUR/USD failed to resist the 1.12 barrier and fell back into the red in the early moves, as the US dollar resumed its correction higher amid improving risk sentiment.

EUR/USD rejected at 1.1200

The EUR/USD pair trades -0.21% lower at 1.1166, hovering close to fresh session lows struck at 1.1163 some minutes ago. The main currency pair stalled its tepid recovery just ahead of 1.12 handle and slipped back in the negative territory as the USD bulls jumped back into the bids on the back of a better risk environment.

Moreover, markets are predicting a higher for the European stocks, following a stronger performance by the Asian equities, which diminish the demand for the euro as a safe-haven, thereby weighing on EUR/USD. The pan-European benchmark, the Euro Stoxx 50 futures, trade 0.50% higher while the DAX futures are also seen marginally higher.

Meanwhile, markets are likely to stay focussed on Fed officials’ speeches in the day ahead as the macro calendar for today’s trading session remains fairly light.

EUR/USD Technical Levels    

The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.1206 (Today’s High), above which gains could be extended to 1.1245 (Sept 3 High) levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 1.1130 (Sept 9 Low) below which it could extend losses to 1.1088 (Sept 4 Low) levels.









Sep 22,2015
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USD strength pointing towards improving global sentiment – SocGen




FXStreet (Delhi) – Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that weakness in Asian/European equities yesterday morning was followed by a US rally, and that in turn took Treasury yields back up and dollar’s status as a funding currency or as a safe-haven currency for that matter is lost. Instead, it’s a barometer of the global mood which, is improving (today, at least).

Key Quotes

“The trouble is that the more the mood is positive, the more noise the FOMC hawks will make and the better the chance of a 2015 rate hike. At the moment, significant further dollar strength is dependent on both longer-dated US yields and equities rising. That’s possible on a quiet day like today, but if we get back to more risk-averse markets, the dollar is unlikely to out-perform the yen and Euro, even as all three do well against everything else.”

“The most visible loser as the better risk mood was the Euro. Psychologically, a close last night below the 200-day moving average (1.1209) and a failure to break back above it this morning puts the September low at 1.1087 in the market's sights, but I think it would take a move back through 1.10 to signal that this is more than just noise.”








Sep 22,2015
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GBP/USD ignores Osborne’s hawkish comments


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The weak tone on the GBP/USD remained intact, pushing it to a session low of 1.5462 even though UK finance minister Osborne talked up BOE rate hike expectations.

Trades below hourly 200-MA, UK borrowing rises

The pair is trading around the support of the hourly 100-MA located at 1.5469 levels as the rise in the government borrowing overshadowed the comments from Osborne; who said the exit from loose monetary policy is coming.

The UK public sector net borrowing in August ticked higher to GBP 11.3 billion, compared to the estimate of GBP 8.8 billion. Heading into the US session, the spot could continue to track the broader market sentiment. Fed’s Lockhart speech later today could also influence the pair.

GBP/USD Technical Levels

The immediate support is seen at 1.5460 (61.8% of June rally), under which the spot could drop to 1.54 levels. On the higher side, a break above the hourly 100-MA at 1.5526 could open doors for a re-test of 1.5568 (previous day’s high).








Sep 22,2015
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AUDUSD: AUD/JPY drops, hints at risk aversion?




FXStreet (Mumbai) - The AUD/JPY pair fell to an intraday low of 85.18 levels as weaker commodity prices dragged AUD and equities lower, thereby triggering safe haven demand for the Yen.

AUD/JPY a risk barometer?

The pair is increasingly being tracked as an indicator of overall market sentiment. The slowdown in China and weakness in commodity prices weighs directly on the AUD, while the resulting risk aversion leads to strength in the traditional safe haven assets like JPY, CHF, Treasuries.

Accordingly, the cross has been on the declining trend of late and remained mute even though the US stocks witnessed a bounce back on Monday.

AUD/JPY Technical Levels

The pair currently trades around 85.36. The immediate resistance is located at 85.91 (hourly 200-MA) and 86.32 (hourly 100-MA). On the lower side, support is seen at 84.78 (Sep 11 low) and 84.14 (Aug 26 low).









Sep 22,2015
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GBP/USD keeps falling, near 1.5450


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The selling pressure around the sterling is now gathering further traction, sending GBP/USD to test daily lows in the mid-1.5400s.

GBP/USD in 4-day lows

Spot is extending its weekly decline towards the 1.5450 area today against the backdrop of a generalized context of USD-strength. The pair continues to trade lower after last week’s rejection around the key resistance area at 1.5660, as market participants keep assessing the potential timing of a rates lift-off by the Federal Reserve.

In the data space, UK’s Public Sector Net Borrowing has widened to £11.30 billion, surpassing expectations at £8.65 billion. Across the pond, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index and the speech by Atlanta Fed D.Lockhart will be the main highlights.

GBP/USD significant levels

As of writing the pair is down 0.38% at 1.5448 and a breakdown of 1.5373 (low Sep.14) would aim for 1.5330 (low Sep.16) and finally 1.5299 (low Sep.8). On the flip side, the next up barrier lines up at 1.5569 (high Sep.21) ahead of 1.5660 (high Sep.18) and then 1.5717 (high Aug.26).








Sep 22,2015
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EUR/CHF purchasing power parity well above 1.20 – Swiss Economic Minister


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Swiss Economic Minister was on the wires today stating the purchasing power parity of the EUR/CHF is well above 1.20 and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is working towards the same.

Key Quotes

Strong franc endangers price stability

Certain risk of deflation

It is clear that Switzerland remains an attractive place to do business







Sep 23,2015
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ECB adjusts the purchase process in its QE program


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The European Central Bank (ECB) announced on Wednesday that the Governing Council has decided to adjust the purchase process in its bond-buying program and increase the proportion of purchases by national central banks rather than external managers in its quantitative easing (QE) program launched in March this year.

Starting on October 27, the Bank of France and the National Bank of Belgium will act as Eurosystem asset managers executing purchases, the ECB stated, and the contracts of two of its current external executing asset managers will be extended.

In a press release, ECB noted, "The executing asset managers will continue to conduct eligible ABS purchase transactions on explicit instructions from, and on behalf of the Eurosystem. The Eurosystem will maintain its role in undertaking price checks and due diligence prior to approving transactions."






Sep 23,2015
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USD/JPY bearish below 120.35/80 – Commerzbank


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The pair’s outlook remains negative while below the 120.35/80 area, suggested Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.

Key Quotes

“USD/JPY is consolidating – it faces a number of resistances directly overhead from 120.42 to 121.80”.

“It is side lined in a converging space, and below lies the near term support line, this is located at 119.20 today. Currently we remain negative below the 121.35/80 zone”.

“The market has failed recently at the 61.8% retracement at 121.80. We look for this to continue to cap the topside and we then look for a retest of 118.33/25 (March low) en route to the 116.15/115.85 2015 low and the recent low”.



Sep 23,2015
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Too early to discuss new ECB stimulus – ECB’s Jazbec

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Slovenian central bank head and the European Central Bank member Bostjan Jazbec was on the wires stating today that it is too early to talk about new ECB stimulus. Earlier today, ECB member Nowotny also played down the urge to do more.

Key Quotes

Currently not discussing QE exit, nor discussing prolonging QE

It is too early to discuss new ECB stimulus

Monetary policy is working with a delay so it's too early to discuss any other scenario that has been agreed




Sep 23,2015
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Euro on recovery mode after Nowotny, eyeing Draghi – BBH



FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BBH, note that the euro recovered toward $1.1150, with the help of ECB's Nowotny playing down the urgency of expanding or extending the asset purchase program.

Key Quotes

“Draghi is expected to reiterate the flexibility of the current program before the European Parliament today, while the Bundesbank's Weidmann can be expected to resist such notions when he speaks to a business association in Germany later today. The euro is consolidating after approaching $1.11 in Asia. Key chart support is seen near $1.1080.”




Sep 23,2015
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German IFO Business Climate index surprises on the upside in Sept



FXStreet (Mumbai) - Business sentiment among German investors surprisingly improved in September, shrugging-off the sell-off in the Chinese and global stock markets. The result, however, did not reflect the latest turmoil caused by a false emission scam at the country's auto giant Volkswagen.

The headline Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 108.5 during September, above the 108.4 booked in August.

Meanwhile, the Current Assessment sub-survey, indicating current conditions in the euro area's number one economy, booked 114 points, after the previous month's figure of 114.8 and below estimates of 114.7 points.

Whilst, the Ifo Expectations Index - indicating firms' projections for the next six months - recorded 103.3, from 102.2 in August, after estimates had called for a reading of 101.4.





Sep 24,2015
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EUR/USD hovers around 200-DMA while European stocks waver



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/USD pair recovered from the post-German IFO losses to trade in the sideways manner around its 200-DMA located at 1.1198 as the Europeans stocks swing between gains and losses.

Rejected at hourly 100-MA

The spot turned lower from its hourly 100-MA located at 1.1222 levels after the German IFO current assessment index ticked lower in September. However, the spot recovered back to its 200-DMA from 1.1184 as the European stocks fell back into moderate losses.

The US economic calendar offers weekly jobless claims and monthly durable goods order report today. Fed’s Yellen speech is also likely to dominate the wires later today.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

The immediate resistance is seen at 1.1222 (hourly 100-MA), above which gains could be extended to 1.1267 (hourly 200-MA). On the other side, support is seen at 1.1158 (hourly 50-MA) and 1.11 levels.





Sep 24,2015
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EUR/USD drops to 1.1140 as European stocks rebound sharply


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The shared currency ran through fresh sellers versus the American dollar at the European open, dragging EUR/USD to fresh session lows near 1.1150 levels.

EUR/USD eyes 1.1100

The EUR/USD pair trades -0.72% lower at fresh two-day lows of 1.1148, finally breaking the range-trade seen around 1.1170 levels in the late-Asian session. The offered tone around the EUR/USD pair grew bigger after the European stocks rebounded sharply higher at open, improving the risk sentiment heading into the crucial US GDP figures later today.

Stock on the European bourses bounced-back on Friday, after a weak performance seen yesterday and also shrugging-off mixed performance in Asian markets. The pan-European benchmark, the Euro Stoxx 50 rises 1.84% to 3,074 while the German benchmark, the DAX leads its European rivals higher, up nearly 2% at 9,600 points.

EUR/USD remains undermined and meets fresh supply on every attempt to fill in the bearish gap as the buck remains in power across the board, after Fed Chair Yellen indicated a possibility of a rate-hike later this year in the overnight trades.

Meanwhile, focus now turns towards the third estimate of the Q2 GDP data from the US due later in the NY session as the EUR calendar remains data-quiet with nothing relevant on the cards.

EUR/USD Technical Levels    

The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.1232 (Today’s High), above which gains could be extended to 1.1296 (Sept 24 High) levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 1.1120 (Sept 7 Low) below which it could extend losses to 1.1103 (Sept 23 Low) levels.






Sep 25,2015
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EUR/USD: Fresh session lows amid rally in European stocks

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/USD pair fell to a fresh session low of 1.1116 as the bid tone on the USD improved amid the rally in the European stock markets.

Risk-on rally weighs over EUR

The common currency turned lower in early Europe and extended losses to trade below its 100-MA located at 1.1144 levels. The pan-European Euro Stoxx 600 index advanced 2.5%,capping the demand for funding currencies like EUR. Moreover, the Fed rate hike bets have become more sensitive to stock market moves off late.

Consequently, the uptick in the stock markets resulted in the uptick in the US dollar as well. Ahead in the day, the spot could be influenced by the Fed speak and the US Q2 GDP figure due for release later today.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

The pair currently trades around 1.1125. The immediate support is located at 1.1105 (Sep 23 low), under which the pair could drop to 1.1052 (Mar 26 high). On the other side, resistance is seen at 1.1144 (100-MA) and 1.1192 (200-MA).
 





Sep 25,2015
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EUR/USD rebounds from 1.1100

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency remains entrenched in the negative territory on Friday, with EUR/USD retaking the mid-1.1100s after testing the key support at 1.1100.

EUR/USD weaker ahead of US docket

The pair keeps the leg lower after being rejected from weekly tops at levels just shy of 1.1300 the figure on Thursday, suffering the unexpected hawkish stance by Chairwoman J.Yellen.

Poor results in Euroland today have shown Private Loans and M3 Money Supply coming in below expectations at 1.0% YoY and 4.8% on a year to August, although the more relevant data await across the pond with US Q2 GDP Annualized and speeches by Fed’s Bullard and George.

EUR/USD levels to watch

As of writing the pair is retreating 0.63% at 1.1157 with the next support at 1.1105 (low Sep.23) ahead of 1.1089 (low Sep.4) and then 1.1017 (low Aug.19). On the upside, a breakout of 1.1296 (high Sep.24) would aim for 1.1330 (high Sep.21) and then 1.1373 (high Sep.14).








Sep 25,2015
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Gold bullish positions rose last week


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The data released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed the speculators and large traders increased their gold bullish positions higher in the data reported through September 22nd following the drop in the bullish positions in the previous two weeks.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Comex gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge fund, witnessed a weekly change of +21,578 contracts to total a net position of +61,125 contracts. The weekly bullish positions rose by 7,855 contracts and the weekly bearish positions dropped by -13,723 contracts.

The commercials (hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes) added to their overall bearish positions to a net total position of -57,228 contracts through September 22nd.






Sep 28,2015
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US: Busy week ahead with NFP at the Centre stage – Deutsche Bank



FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Deutsche Bank, note that as we look ahead there’s a lot to look forward to this week with economic data capped by the September payrolls reading this Friday.

Key Quotes

“Market consensus is currently running at 202k which is more or less in with the forecast of DB’s Joe Lavorgna at 200k.”

“Fedspeak will be closely watched again and it’s set to be a busy one with Dudley, Williams and Evans speaking today, Yellen and Dudley again on Wednesday, Brainard and Williams on Thursday and finally Fischer on Friday post payrolls.”

“If that wasn’t enough, then US politics may play a factor with the end of September marking the date of the end of the fiscal year for the US government with a new budget needing to be passed. That’ll bring the terms ‘debt ceiling’ and ‘government shutdown’ back to the forefront with the latter a possibility (although House Speaker Boehner’s resignation on Friday seen by many as perhaps reducing it).”






Sep 28,2015
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USD/JPY slips to lows near 120.20


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Japanese yen continues to perform better than its American counterpart on Monday, taking USD/JPY to session lows in the 120.20 area.

USD/JPY lower on risk aversion

The risk-off trade remains firm following the opening bell in Europe at the beginning of the week, with spot trading on an offered fashion albeit keeping the range above the 120.00 handle.

Data wise in Japan, both the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Index have ticked lower during July. In the US docket, inflation figures tracked by the PCE, Pending Home Sales and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index are all due later.

In light of the recent steady stance by the FOMC and the upcoming US Payrolls on Friday, market participants will remain vigilant on the speeches by Fed’s Dudley, Evans and Williams, looking for further queues on the timing of the Fed’s lift-off.

USD/JPY levels to watch

As of writing the pair is retreating 0.26% at 120.27 and a breach of 120.01 (low Sep.25) would aim for 118.87 (low Sep.8) and then 118.58 (low Sep.4). On the upside, the initial barrier aligns at 120.72 (high Sep.16) ahead of 120.99 (high Sep.17) and finally 121.335 (high Sep.10).





Sep 28,2015
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Speculators trimmed neat bearish positions in treasuries last week


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the view of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, occasional bullish attempts in the cross should find a tough barrier around 0.7480.

Key Quotes

“EUR/GBP continues to probe its long term downtrend channel resistance line at .7399”.

“Resistance extends from here to .7510. - the August peak lies at .7421 and the next higher May peak is found at .7482 and this should cap the currency pair”.

“Minor support comes in around the 200 day moving average at .7298”.



Sep 28,2015
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EUR/SEK undergoes corrective process


An upward and over extended market, set against the backdrop of a downtrend may swing the EUR/SEK buyer-seller pendulum back towards the bears again.

EUR/SEK was in sell mode until a recent move changed the shape of the price structure. The 4hr RSI was on average printing below 50% over the last three weeks and recently broke above the 60% mark. This can be considered overbought territory in the context of a full-fledged bear market. Therefore, the present corrective rally is vulnerable for a turnaround from here.

Further, the 50SMA is still below the 200SMA on 4hr charts. However, should the pair extend its recovery from multi-week lows into a new trend, traders may require a contingency plan in place.



Sep 28,2015
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USD/CAD sidelined near 1.3330, US data eyed

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Canadian dollar alternates gains with losses vs. its American neighbour at the beginning of the week, with USD/CAD hovering over 1.3330/35.

USD/CAD attention to US calendar

The pair remains within the daily range above the 1.3300 key handle on Monday, in an apparent consolidative pattern following the correction lower from recent fresh 11-year peaks beyond the 1.3400 mark.

In the meantime, the pair will remain under pressure in light of the upcoming string of US data releases: Personal Income/Spending, PCE, Pending Home Sales and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index; all against the backdrop of speeches by Fed’s Tarullo, Evans, Williams and Dudley.

USD/CAD levels to consider

The pair is now losing 0.01% at 1.3335 and a breach of 1.3303 (low Sep.25) would aim for 1.3233 (low Sep.23) and finally 1.3216 (low Sep.22). On the other hand, the initial resistance lines up at 1.3356 (high Sep.25) followed by 1.3418 (high Sep.24) and then 1.3495 (high Jun.29 2004).



Sep 28,2015
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USD/CAD sidelined near 1.3330, US data eyed



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Canadian dollar alternates gains with losses vs. its American neighbour at the beginning of the week, with USD/CAD hovering over 1.3330/35.

USD/CAD attention to US calendar

The pair remains within the daily range above the 1.3300 key handle on Monday, in an apparent consolidative pattern following the correction lower from recent fresh 11-year peaks beyond the 1.3400 mark.

In the meantime, the pair will remain under pressure in light of the upcoming string of US data releases: Personal Income/Spending, PCE, Pending Home Sales and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index; all against the backdrop of speeches by Fed’s Tarullo, Evans, Williams and Dudley.

USD/CAD levels to consider

The pair is now losing 0.01% at 1.3335 and a breach of 1.3303 (low Sep.25) would aim for 1.3233 (low Sep.23) and finally 1.3216 (low Sep.22). On the other hand, the initial resistance lines up at 1.3356 (high Sep.25) followed by 1.3418 (high Sep.24) and then 1.3495 (high Jun.29 2004).





Sep 28,2015
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AUD/USD points to range bound near term – OCBC



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank, sees the pair in a consolidative pattern in the short term.

Key Quotes

“Expect the tide of global macro/risk sentiment to potentially sway the AUD this week with range trading expected to prevail in the interim”.

“On the CFTC front, note a jump in net leveraged AUD shorts in the latest week. In the near term, the lower boundary for the pair is expected into 0.6895 with 0.7120 likely to limit for now”.








Sep 28,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates




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