OctaFX_Farid Posted July 2, 2015 Author Share Posted July 2, 2015 EUR/GBP: Headed for 0.7206 - CB FXStreet (Guatemala) - Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank noted the technical conditions surrounding EUR/GBP. Key Quotes: "EUR/GBP has recently charted a key day reversal from the base of the 0.6985 6 year down channel. This was our medium downside target. Intraday Elliott wave counts are suggesting that we allow for recovery to the 55 day ma at 0.7206 but I have little beyond that." "Dips lower will find minor support at 0.7080/60 ahead of 0.6985. Failure here will target the 0.6571/41 2007 low. Above 0.7212 will allow for a deeper recovery to the 0.7314 2015 resistance line." July 02,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 2, 2015 Author Share Posted July 2, 2015 EUR/GBP bulls stay on track ahed of Greece referendum FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/GBP is currently trading at 0.7103 with a high of 0.7119 and a low of 0.7070. EUR/GBP has been on the bid with the pound offered throughout the markets this Thursday, only finding some slight relief on US Nonfarm Payrolls while EUR takes more advantage of the sell off in the greenback. EUR/GBP price action EUR/GBP has been been drifting to the upside from 0.7085 within a channel within a process of lower lows up to aforementioned highs and on to the 0.71 handle where resistance keeps a lid on further advances at this stage, with supply taking over at time of writing down to test the bulls commitments around the figure. EUR/GBP fundamentals as we await Greece referendum It has been a day for US data while markets await the possible referendum this weekend in Greece for further catalysts while talks between Eurogroup and Athens have ceased until an outcome form the weekends events. The European session was less liquid ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls results that failed to support the dollar and hence a rise in both Sterling and the euro with the cross on the bid. Nonfarm Payrolls resulted in 223k vs 230k expected and 254k previous. EUR/GBP technically on a minor recovery of bearish gap EUR/GBP is making a good recovery from 0.7010 region and of the downside from 0.7112 yesterday and remains within the overall bullish development post the bearish opening gap at the start of this week. Meanwhile, Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank noted the technical conditions surrounding EUR/GBP and how EUR/GBP recently charted a key day reversal from the base of the 0.6985 6 year down channel. July 02,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 2, 2015 Author Share Posted July 2, 2015 EUR/USD stuck around 1.1100 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency is retaining today’s gains vs. the greenback, with EUR/USD trading comfortably in the 1.1100 area. EUR/USD upside capped at 1.1120 The pair could not sustain the post-Payrolls spike to session tops around 1.1120, leaving the bulk of the trade in the 1.1080/1.1100 band instead. Poor results from the US labour market during June failed to ignite a more durable bull run in the pair, which remains more dependent on the outcome of Sunday’s referendum in Greece. Moving on to Friday’s docket in Euroland, the final figures of the Services PMIs are due ahead of EMU’s Retail Sales for the month of May (0.1% MoM exp.). EUR/USD levels to consider The pair is now advancing 0.39% at 1.1096 with the next resistance at 1.1171 (high Jul.1) followed by 1.1234 (high Jun.24) and finally 1.1244 (high Jun.30). On the downside, a breach of 1.1032 (low Jul.2) would target 1.1000 (psychological level) en route to 1.0955 (low Jun.29). July 02,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 2, 2015 Author Share Posted July 2, 2015 RBA to stay on the sidelines next week – TDS FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Rich Kelly, Strategist at TD Securities, expects the RBA to leave rates on hold at its next meeting. Key Quotes “We expect the RBA to leave the cash rate at 2% at next week’s meeting and for the bank to exclude an explicit easing bias”. “The statement should be a cut and paste of the June statement, so there should be no surprises”. “The RBA remains in a period of inactivity with no fundamental catalyst to cut over the next 2-3 months”. “Data has not been weak enough to warrant an RBA shift, even if underlying Q2 CPI (out on July 22nd) comes near the RBA’s 2.25% forecast or slightly below”. “However the Bank is likely to reaffirm its view on the AUD stating that “further depreciation seems both likely and necessary.” July 02,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 2, 2015 Author Share Posted July 2, 2015 Focus likely to be on ECB’s ELA after referendum – TDS FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategist Rich Kelly at TD Securities assessed the implications for the ELA mechanism after the Greek referendum on Sunday. Key Quotes “On the back of a 'No' vote, we would expect the market reaction to be about twice as intense as what we saw on Monday, but with a more protracted inability for the market to completely move on”. “The biggest question mark will be the ELA. As long as the two sides remain in discussions, we think the ELA remains in place, even though we think the creditors will be unwilling to come to any agreement with Syriza”. “We would, however, expect the ECB to increase its haircuts on ELA collateral shortly thereafter to help offset some of the further risks to its balance sheet, though not enough to cap out any individual bank”. “Defaulting on the samurai bond could trigger a credit event with ISDA after July 14”. “Defaulting on bonds held by the ECB on the 20th would not trigger a credit event, but we could see the ELA terminated at that point”. “But even if the ECB chose to follow their self-imposed rules and end the ELA, they would also likely counter that with additional frontloaded QE over the next few months and announce additional liquidity tenders in order to quell market volatility for the rest of the Eurozone”. “Exposures to Greece in Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey may be the first to come under the microscope both of markets—and policymakers in those countries—as well”. July 02,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 2, 2015 Author Share Posted July 2, 2015 USD/CAD consolidates at lows FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CAD is consolidating at daily lows after falling sharply at the beginning of the New York session weighed by disappointing US nonfarm payrolls and factory orders. USD/CAD pulled back from a 3-month high of 1.2632 scored during the European session and slid to the 1.2545 area before finding support at the 50-hour SMA. At time of writing, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2553, down 0.28% on the day. USD/CAD key levels On the downside, immediate supports are seen at 1.2500 (psychological level), 1.2472 (Jul 1 low) and 1.2395 (100-day SMA). On the upside, resistances could be found at 1.2632 (Jul 2 high) and 1.2645 (Apr 13 high). July 02,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 2, 2015 Author Share Posted July 2, 2015 Japanese Q2 GDP could surprise to the downside – Westpac FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analyst Tom Wayne at Westpac suggested the possibility that the Japanese GDP could disappoint markets in the second quarter. Key Quotes “The Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance each conduct comprehensive quarterly surveys of Japanese businesses”. “The MOF’s BSI surveys 16000 corporations of varying sizes, while the BoJ’s Tankan covers around 1000”. “We use the detailed responses to forecast quarterly GDP growth... forecasts based on responses to the BSI are a better fit than those based on Tankan, though both surveys tend to point in the same direction”. “There was some divergence between BSI and Tankan respondents in Q2, with BSI reporting a decline in fixed investment over the quarter while Tankan shows an unexpectedly large increase (4.3 vs -5 in Q1)”. “Despite this difference, both models highlight the downside risk for Q2 GDP growth, with Tankan and BSI forecasting 0.3% and 3% contractions respectively”. July 02,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 6, 2015 Author Share Posted July 6, 2015 Gold speculators reduced overall bullish positions FXStreet (Mumbai) - As per the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Gold traders very slightly trimmed their gold bullish positions last week to lower the overall bullish bets for a second straight week. The non-commercial futures contracts of Comex gold futures witnessed a weekly change of -284 contracts to total a net position of +104,410 contracts in the data reported through June 2nd. The weekly bearish positions rose by +2,632 contracts, while the weekly bearish positions rose by +2,348 contracts. Meanwhile, during the reporting time period - May 26th to June 2nd - gold price edged higher from approximately USD 1,187.80/Oz to USD 1,194.40/Oz. July 06,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 6, 2015 Author Share Posted July 6, 2015 Shanghai Composite pares gains FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Shanghai Composite index pared gains due to weakness in Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution, Software & Computer Services and Technology. Chinese stocks jumped after Beijing unleashed an unprecedented series of support measures over the weekend to avoid the full fledged crash in the equities. The Shanghai composite index jumped leaped more than 7%, before paring gains to end the day up 2.42%. A surprise rate cut in the end of June relaxations in margin trading and other "stability measures" did little to calm investors . So China came out more announcements on Saturday – -China's top brokerages pledged to collectively buy at least 120 billion yuan ($19.3 billion) of shares. -The China Mutual Fund Association, said 25 fund companies also pledged on Saturday to buy shares. Another 69 fund firms said on Sunday they would do the same. - 8 companies that had been approved to launch IPOs all announced they had suspended their plans. It remains to be seen if the latest round of measures, manage to stabilize the Chinese equity markets. July 06,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 6, 2015 Author Share Posted July 6, 2015 DAX drops on Greek ‘NO’ vote news, banks worst hit FXStreet (Mumbai) - Germany’s benchmark index, the DAX kicked-off the week on a bearish note, opening with a negative and dropped to fresh three-week lows hurt by the outcome of the Greek vote on austerity measures, with the region's banking sector being hit the hardest. Currently, the DAX 30 trades -1.32% lower at 10909.80 levels, having posted fresh three-week lows at 10819.50 in early trades. German stocks dived in red as markets continue to weigh the Greek referendum outcomes while also evaluating possibilities of Grexit. Traders also remain cautious as later today; several top European officials are set to meet, with the biggest focus likely to be on ECB policymakers who are set to decide whether they will maintain the bank's emergency funding for Greek banks. The index trades with a negative market breadth with the advance-decline ratio being 1:29. BASF SE is the top loser so far, down -2.37%, followed by Daimler AG which is losing -2.31%. While Commerzbank AG records a- 2% loss on the day. DAX Technical Levels The index has an immediate resistance at 11k. Meanwhile, support is seen at 10765 levels and 10594 levels. July 06,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 6, 2015 Author Share Posted July 6, 2015 Forex outlook: EUR/USD might see a negative outcome by this week – TDS FXStreet (Barcelona) - FX Strategists at TD Securities offer the outlook for EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, NOK and the CAD, expecting further downside in the single currency. Key Quotes “We view recent events as EUR negative though the common currency is holding in remarkably well (EURUSD sitting around 1.1035 a time of writing). Markets may be waiting for the conclusion of the Hollande-Merkel meeting later today which would likely set the tone moving forward. Nonetheless, we still see the traditional safe haven playbook unfolding with USD and JPY as the prime beneficiaries if a Grexit becomes a base case scenario and in such a circumstance we think EURJPY is likely the best bet as the leveraged community has pared back its net EUR shorts opening downside potential if a deal is not reached.” “On EURUSD, short-term moving average crossovers are bearish right now in EURUSD with the 10-DMA breaking below the 55-DMA, which could see momentum players pull EURUSD lower on a negative outcome later this week.” “We look for commodity intensive currencies to be vulnerable to under performance, and thus far NOK has been the weakest performer versus the majors especially versus the EUR. The CAD has lagged the move but with WTI down nearly 4.3% on the session at time of writing, the bias will be for the CAD to slide.” July 06,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 6, 2015 Author Share Posted July 6, 2015 What will be the implications if Greece fails to arrive at an agreement soon? – BNPP FXStreet (Barcelona) - The BNP Paribas Research Team, expects Greece to introduce IOUs rather than paying invoices or salaries with euros, and a Grexit might happen eventually. Key Quotes “In case of no quick agreement with its creditors Greece it seems likely that Greece will have to introduce IOUs, which is a system of arrears. Rather than paying invoices or salaries with euros, there would be a promise that the money would follow later (although when would not be clear).” “In a similar way the government would also need to support the banking system which would be facing a liquidity squeeze if the ECB would have tightened the conditions for its ELA. These IOUs could be used to pay taxes and for electronic transfers although companies and households will prefer payment in cash. These are however increasingly hard to make because of cash withdrawal limits.” “One easily sees the complexity of the growing role of IOU’s and an increasing preference for cash. Eventually this could force the country to leave the Eurozone.” If Greece were to leave the Eurozone, there would be a legal vacuum “There are no clauses in the Treaty which underpins Economic and Monetary Union which would allow a country to leave the Eurozone and a country can’t be forced out either. In the European Union treaty, there is the possibility that a country would leave, but that would be on its own volition: it can’t be forced out. This implies that if Greece were de facto to leave the Eurozone, there would be a legal vacuum which would eventually require a treaty change.” July 06,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 6, 2015 Author Share Posted July 6, 2015 RBNZ might cut rates in July and further too, NZD/USD expected to fall – Westpac FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dominick Stephens of Westpac, expect the RBNZ to cut its OCR by 25bp at each of the July, September and October RBNZ meetings, and further forecasts NZD/USD to see 0.62 by 2015-end. Key Quotes “We were forecasting 25bp OCR reductions in July and September. On top of the June cut that has already occurred, our forecast implied a total of three OCR cuts in 2015, and a terminal OCR of 2.75%. In our commentary we noted there was a risk of a fourth OCR cut this year. Over the past week emerging news has shifted that fourth cut from a risk scenario to a likelihood.” “Accordingly, we are now forecasting 25bp OCR reductions in July, September and October. This will take the OCR to a low of 2.5% this year.” “Commensurate with our lower OCR forecast, we are now forecasting an average NZD/USD exchange rate of 62 cents in the December quarter of 2015.” July 06,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 6, 2015 Author Share Posted July 6, 2015 FTSE weakens, Rolls Royce drops 6% FXStreet (Mumbai) - The London’s Ftse index edged lower on Monday, although it stays relatively resilient its European peers after the Greeks rejected the creditor’s offer at Sundays’ referendum. Rolls Royce hurt by profit downgrade Shares in Rolls Royce fell more than 6% on Monday as the share buyback programme was being halted after Rolls Royce's third profit warning in nine months. Other major index losers are Schroders, TUI AG, RBS PLC, and Wier Group. On the other hand, major index gainers are Royal Mail, Marks&Spencer, SSE, Barratt, and Compass. The British equity markets stayed relatively resilient since UK economy is comparatively less threatened by the Grexit. The Ftse index currently trades 0.70% lower at 6539.80. The FTSE 100 has erased its 2015 gains and is almost 8% below a record high of 7,122.74 points set in April. July 06,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 7, 2015 Author Share Posted July 7, 2015 Oil dips on strong USD FXStreet (Mumbai) - Oil prices erased early gains to trade in the red as the USD strengthened on account of risk aversion due to Grexit fears and rout in Chinese stock markets. Triple whammy The commodities are suffering due to the triple whammy of Grexit fears, China stock market crash and the resulting strong USD. WTI Crude is currently down 1.27% at USD 52.33/barrel, while Brent Crude is down 0.40% at USD 56.94/barrel. Oil prices came under pressure as the USD index strengthened 0.82% to trade above 97.00 levels. A stronger USD makes oil costly in non-dollar terms. Meanwhile, investors keep a close eye on talks in Vienna over Tehran's nuclear program that could lead to increased exports of Iranian crude at a time of global oversupply. July 07,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 7, 2015 Author Share Posted July 7, 2015 Canada International Merchandise Trade came in at $-41.87B, below expectations ($-2.5B) in May FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest July 07,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 7, 2015 Author Share Posted July 7, 2015 EUR/USD near 1.0920, ‘Grexit’ picks up pace FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency keeps losing ground vs. the US dollar on Tuesday, now sending EUR/USD to fresh lows near 1.0920. EUR/USD weaker on Greece The pair is testing multi-week troughs in the 1.0920 area during the first half of the week, as unease is gathering further traction amongst traders ahead of the critical EU Summit. Adding to the downbeat sentiment, several EU officials have made comments favouring Greece leaving the euro bloc, while rumours that the European Central Bank could be ready to act to protect financial stability keep hovering over markets… and hurting the euro. In the data space, US trade deficit shrunk to $41.87 billion during June vs. $42.60 expected. EUR/USD levels to consider The pair is now retreating 1.16% at 1.0927 with the next support at 1.0918 (low Jun.2) followed by 1.0887 (low Jun.1) and finally 1.0819 (low May 27). On the other hand, a breakout of 1.1059 (high Jul.7) would aim for 1.1171 (high Jul.1) and then 1.1234 (high Jun.24). July 07,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 7, 2015 Author Share Posted July 7, 2015 United States Redbook index (YoY): 2% (July 3) vs 1.7% FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news. July 07,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 7, 2015 Author Share Posted July 7, 2015 GBP/USD stages crushing decline FXStreet (Barcelona) - The 1-hour GBP/USD MACD series is sitting at extreme lows. Recent plummeting GBP/USD price action has been highlighted by an above-average distance between MACD and its signal line. From a strategic standpoint, there could be further stomach-churning dips to endure, as well as brief relief rallies. The latest MACD print shows dissipation of downside momentum, thus reinforcing the second scenario. July 07,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 7, 2015 Author Share Posted July 7, 2015 Iran talks deadline extended to July 10 FXStreet (Mumbai) - The World powers and Iran have extended the deadline to reach a nuclear deal until the end of the week. State Department spokeswoman Mari Harf said Tuesday morning in a statement that U.S. officials have "made substantial progress in every area" and will continue negotiating with their Iranian counterparts through Friday. Moreover, If the Obama administration does not submit a nuclear deal to Congress before Thursday, the amount of time Congress will have to review a deal will double, to 60 days from 30 days. July 07,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 8, 2015 Author Share Posted July 8, 2015 FOMC Minutes might be perceived as slightly more hawkish – TDS FXStreet (Barcelona) - The TD Securities Team previews the key events ahead in the US – FOMC Minutes, Fed Williams speech. Key Quotes “Minutes from the June 16-17 FOMC will come into focus amid ongoing Greek concerns, with markets interested in any discussions surrounding the Fed's evolving view on inflation and growth, and any emerging consensus on the appropriate pace of policy withdrawal.” “While markets viewed the June FOMC statement as dovish, there is a risk that the minutes hint at a more balanced discussion (which may be perceived as slightly more “hawkish”) on rate hikes later this year.” “Fed’s Williams (dove, voter) will make remarks on the speaker circuit. On the supply front, the $21B 10yr auction will follow on the heels of a solid 3yr sale, with averages suggesting a stop 0.5bps through the screens as the buy side takes 70% of the auction (57% to indirects and 13% to directs).” July 08,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 8, 2015 Author Share Posted July 8, 2015 Brazil IPCA Inflation climbed from previous 0.74% to 0.79% in June FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news. July 08,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 8, 2015 Author Share Posted July 8, 2015 Greece to extend bank holiday, capital controls through Friday FXStreet (Córdoba) - According to government sources, Greece is likely to extend bank holiday, capital controls through Friday. July 08,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 8, 2015 Author Share Posted July 8, 2015 USD/HUF MACD indicates downside pressure FXStreet (Barcelona) - The failure of MACD to test recent highs indicates that USD/HUF could be facing downside pressure soon. Over the past two weeks, it has become evident that a bearish divergence between USD/HUF spot and the MACD has developed, which typically implies weakness ahead. Additionally on a 4-hour chart, we can see that the MACD line pushed below its signal line, a further bearish forewarning. July 08,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 8, 2015 Author Share Posted July 8, 2015 GBP/JPY intraday chart flashes warning flag FXStreet (Barcelona) - GBP/JPY could soon experience a period of short-term strength on an intraday basis to allow for some severe oversold studies to unwind. While the 50 SMA is moving at a considerable distance below the 200 SMA on the hourly chart, the stochastic (14,3,3) threatens to change the bearish status quo. The oscillator has built a base under the 20% level for an entire session and has just emerged from oversold territory with the recent hourly close. This is a rare but not uncommon technical event warning of a potential short-term bottom. Longer-term traders following the 4H stochastic, still under 50%, don’t necessarily need to liquidate their sell positions. Nevertheless, the 1-hour stochastic is increasingly backing the idea that it could be necessary soon. July 08,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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