OctaFX_Farid Posted June 15, 2015 Author Share Posted June 15, 2015 Credit Agricole: EUR risks remain tilted to the downside – eFXnews FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Credit Agricole, the combination of Greece exit fears and a potential optimistic tone of the June FOMC Meeting might keep the EUR vulnerable against AUD and NZD, as noted by eFXnews. Key Quotes “Our central case is still for a compromise to be found most likely in the form of a partial bailout extension in exchange for the implementation of some of the reforms. This should help avoid imminent default ahead of the IMF loan repayment next week. It could still leave open the prospect for a potential referendum in Greece on the full reform package in July, however, and keep the risks for EUR on the downside.” “Market uneasiness could grow ahead of the Eurogroup meeting and keep the downside pressure on EURUSD in place for now.” “One key question is also how the Fed will respond to the intensifying uncertainty about Greece. We suspect that while Yellen will try not to rock the boat too much, it will be hard for her to ignore the latest improvement in US data and especially various inflation gauges. Positive surprises from today's US IP could fuel more hawkish expectations some more. All that should keep USD supported broadly this week.” “Lingering Greek fears and more constructive message from the Fed could make for a less favourable backdrop for risk correlated G10 currencies. We suspect that the likes of AUD and NZD could remain vulnerable alongside EUR.” This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews. June 15,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 15, 2015 Author Share Posted June 15, 2015 USD/CAD eases to 1.2340 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After being rejected at session tops near 1.2360, USD/CAD is now hovering over the 1.2345.40 band. USD/CAD muted post-data The pair practically ignored recent data from the US and Canada, showing that the regional manufacturing gauge by the Empire State index dropped to -1.98 for the current month, while Canadian Manufacturing Shipments sunk 2.1% from March to April, reverting the previous 2.9% advance. Next on tap will be the more relevant US Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production and NAHB index. USD/CAD key levels At the moment the pair is up 0.13% at 1.2336 and a break above 1.2362 (high Jun.15) would aim for 1.2442 (high Jun.9) and then 1.2473 (high Jun.8). On the other hand, the immediate support aligns at 1.2301 (low Jun.15) followed by 1.2279 (low Jun.12) and finally 1.2253 (low Jun.11). June 15,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 15, 2015 Author Share Posted June 15, 2015 EUR/USD unmoved on US data FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency remained unchanged vs. the greenback after the US releases, with EUR/USD around the 1.1220 area. EUR/USD remain in red, focus on Draghi The pair kept the composure after another disappointment from the US docket, where both Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production came in below expectations at 78.1% and contracting 0.2% during May, respectively. Next on tap in the US economy will be the Housing Market index tracked by the NAHB. In addition, ECB’s Mario Draghi is testifying before the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs committee. EUR/USD key levels As of writing the pair is losing 0.24% at 1.1239 with the next support at 1.1151 (low Jun.12) followed by 1.1087 (low Jun.8) and finally 1.1049 (low Jun.5). On the flip side, a break above 1.1247 (high Jun.15) would target 1.1297 (high Jun.12) en route to 1.1334 (high Jun.11). June 15,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 15, 2015 Author Share Posted June 15, 2015 September most likely for Fed rate hike – Danske FXStreet (Barcelona) - Senior Analysts at Danske Bank, presents their base case for the Fed dots, US rate hike and the FOMC Minutes. Key Quotes “As usual, the updated ‘dots’, which show the FOMC members’ projections of the Fed funds rate for the current and coming two years, will be at the centre of attention. The previous projections were released 18 March and the incoming data since then have been mixed, with downside surprises in April and May while the most recent data have been more upbeat.” “We believe that the mixed data have heightened FOMC members’ sense of uncertainty on the economic outlook and in response, we believe that a number of the dovish to centric members will have lowered their expected path for the Fed funds rate. How many is key to the market interpretation of the likelihood of a September lift-off.” “Our base case is that one member will lower his projection from one to zero hikes this year, which will leave the three most dovish members of the FOMC, Evans, Rosengren and Kocherlakota, with a lift-off date next year. On top of this, two members are likely to take down their projections from one to two hikes this year. In March, 14 out of the 17 members had pencilled in two hikes or more this year but that number will then drop to 12 in June.” “This would still send a message that September is the most likely date for lift-off. The risk is that more than two of the centric members take down their rate path this year, which would start fuelling doubts about a September lift-off.” “With recent data coming in strong, we believe that most members should feel confident in the Fed’s base case, that a significant part of the weakness in Q1 was caused by transitory factors.” “Thus we believe that Chair Yellen, and with her the majority of the voting members of the FOMC, will continue to pencil in two hikes this year. This should also keep the median projected Fed funds rate unchanged at 0.625% in June but the risk is that it moves to 0.375%.” June 15,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 EUR/USD sell on rallies – Westpac FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at Westpac recommend selling EUR/USD on strength. Key Quotes “EUR continues to hold on the firmer side of expectations. At least one EUR positive in recent weeks though looks set to fade - the bund sell-off. Historical analogs (the 2003 JGB sell off-off and the 2013 US treasury taper tantrum) suggest that we have finally approached the minimum time frame for thinking about some moderation in the pace of the sell-off with yields typically stabilising after rising 100-120bp two-three months after they bottomed”. “EUR gains on multiple crosses in recent weeks should thus begin to moderate, if not reverse. Higher yields and Greek worries should prompt a good pullback in the ZEW survey too while the FOMC is more likely than not to raise Sep Fed tightening expectations. All told the mix of event risk offers more headwinds than tailwinds for EUR. EUR/USD a sell into the 1.14-1.15 zone”. June 16,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 HUF expected to pick up pace in the medium term – Danske Bank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategist Thomas Harr at Danske Bank sees the Hungarian currency appreciating in the medium term. Key Quotes “HUF has weakened recently on broader EUR strength and higher global yields. As a result, we have lifted our EUR/HUF forecasts moderately”. “We continue to believe that Hungary’s fairly strong external position is likely to be supportive for the HUF in the medium term”. “Furthermore, fairly strong growth and an expected pickup in inflation are likely to keep the carry on the forint relatively attractive. Therefore, we continue to expect medium-term appreciation of the forint”. June 16,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 USD/JPY Forecast: break above 123.91 to pave way for 124.34 – Scotiabank FXStreet (Barcelona) - Eric Theoret, CFA, CMT, Currency Strategist at Scotiabank, notes that USD/JPY rallied on Kuroda’s clarification, with the pair expected to head towards 124.34 on a break above 123.91. Key Quotes “JPY is soft, retracing most of its Kuroda-driven decline on the back of risk aversion driving safe haven flows. BoJ Gov. Kuroda has sought to clarify his recent comments, shifting the focus to the REER rather than the nominal exchange rate. JPY has been remarkably quiet over the past three sessions, and near term vulnerability lies with the broader market tone and the impact from Greece and the Fed ahead of the BoJ later this week.” “USDJPY short-term technicals: mixed—momentum signals are conflicted, and recent movement in USDJPY has been bound between support at the 21 day MA (123.30) and resistance at the 9 day MA (123.91).” “An upside break would shift the focus to the June 10 open at 124.34, with support expected near 122.50.” June 16,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 EUR/USD: looking to the Fed – TDS FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to FX Strategists at TD Securities, the FX markets remain on hold in spite of the ongoing Greece scenario, and awaiting the Fed Meeting and rate guidance. Key Quotes “Currency markets continue to sit on their hands watching Greek headlines from afar and ahead of tomorrow’s Fed meeting. While the current situation in Europe should be negative for the common currency, markets are reluctant to make a bet ahead of the FOMC decision.” “The more important issue with Greek talks has less to do about Greece and more to do with the precedent it would set if it did leave the Eurozone for the other (and larger) peripherals (such as Spain). But until the Fed tomorrow, we expect more stale price action in EURUSD. And, with summer markets looming it may be some time before the primary trend—which we still see as lower—reasserts itself. There are reports however, that Eurozone officials will hold an emergency Greece summit over the weekend so stay tuned.” June 16,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 GBP/USD: short-term technicals remain bullish – Scotiabank FXStreet (Barcelona) - GBP/USD focus has shifted to the upside towards 1.58 levels, notes Eric Theoret, CFA, CMT, Currency Strategist at Scotiabank. Key Quotes “GBPUSD short-term technicals: bullish—GBP has retraced the bulk of its decline from mid-May, shifting the focus to further upside and the potential for a climb toward recent highs above 1.5800. The rally would be threatened on a break back below the 61.8% Fibo at 1.5569.” June 16,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 Bunds could climb further – Danske Bank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analysts at Danske Bank believe the German Bunds still have room for further upside. Key Quotes “The sell-off probably reflects profit taking after yields dropped to a historical low”. “The higher inflation numbers in May and stronger US data, which indicate that the Fed will hike rates in September, together with more upbeat recovery expectations for the eurozone have probably also contributed to higher yields”. “Furthermore, it seems that the ECB is not overly concerned about the rapid rise in yields and volatility”. “Poor market liquidity – due to tighter regulation – might have exaggerated the moves in yields this year”. “However, core inflation is still very low, the QE programme will continue unabated until September next year and Greece might be in focus for a prolonged period of time”. “Hence, any further upside we see for 10Y rates on a 12M horizon is mainly due to a spill-over effect from US rates, and on a 3M horizon we see basically unchanged yields in the 10Y segment”. “For lower maturities we see slight downside potential given our view that the ECB will keep policy rates negative for at least two more years”. June 16,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 GBP/JPY back to test highs at 193.00 FXStreet (Barranquilla) - The British Pound bounced at the 192.00 area against the Japanese Yen and after jumping back 100 pips, the GBP/JPY is now testing highs around 193.00. Pair is heading north following the gains in the GBP/USD. Currently, GBP/JPY is trading at 192.80, up 0.14% on the day, having posted a daily high at 193.17 and low at 192.07. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is also neutral. GBP/JPY Forecast Jameel Ahmad from FXTM commented in the GBP/JPY Forecast Poll that he is "impressed that this pair has continue to consolidate around its multi-year highs and yet to show any signs of fatigue." Ahmad considers that an "aggressive GBP selling would be required for a pullback." In the long term picture, Darren Sinden from Admiral Markets affirms that "despite Kuraoda comments we still expect yen weakness to be a feature this summer." GBP/JPY Levels If the pair consolidates levels around 193.00, it will find resistances at 193.15, 193.35 and 193.60. To the downside, supports are at 192.00, 191.70 and 191.40. June 16,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 AUD/USD erases daily losses FXStreet (Córdoba) - The Australian dollar managed to reverse intraday losses and stood around the flat line against the greenback following mixed US housing data. AUD/USD wavered following the release of Jun 2 RBA minutes, which did not offer any forward guidance and then turned south, sliding to a low of 0.7721 during the European trade. The Aussie has taken back losses over the last hours and reached a session high of 0.7761 in tandem with a greenback pullback across the board. AUD/USD levels to watch At time of writing, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7760, little changed on the day. As for technical levels, immediate resistances are seen at 0.7776/79 (100-day SMA/Jun 16 high), 0.7792 (Jun 11 high) and 0.7818 (Jun 3 high). On the other hand, supports could be found at 0.7721 (Jun 16 low), 0.7703/00 (Jun 15 low/psychological level) and 0.7677 (Jun 12 low). June 16,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 17, 2015 Author Share Posted June 17, 2015 SNB expected to hold policy, Norges Bank rate cut expected – BBH FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team previews the SNB and Norges Bank policy decision scheduled to be released tomorrow. Key Quotes “The Swiss National Bank and Norway's central banks meet tomorrow. The SNB is not expected to change policy, but it may introduce an element of forward guidance, which would be aimed at ensuring investors that policy will be easy for a long time. Meanwhile, as an aside, the SNB's 7-day dollar repo rate ended higher at 64 bp from 62 bp.” “The outlook for the Norges Bank is a close call. Prior to last week's capex news, the market seemed comfortable with a 25 bp rate cut that would bring the deposit rate to 1.0%. We still think that is the risk.” June 17,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 17, 2015 Author Share Posted June 17, 2015 US index futures trade flat before Fed FXStreet (Mumbai) - US stock-index futures trade flat as investors awaited the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s meeting for clues on the timing of any interest-rate increase. Standard & Poor’s 500 rose less than 0.1% to 2,089.75. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 16 points, or less than 0.1%, to 17,842. The Fed is widely expected to keep the interest rates at a record low today. However, growth forecast is likely to be revised lower. Investors shall also keep an eye on interest rate forecasts published through a ‘dot chart’. In March, the interest rate forecasts were significantly revised lower. Post March meet, markets were betting that a rate hike would happen in late 2015-early 2015. However, a stellar non-farm payrolls report for May brought back September rate hike on the table. June 17,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 17, 2015 Author Share Posted June 17, 2015 NZD/USD could hit 0.65 in the medium term – Danske Bank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the view of analysts at Danske Bank, the kiwi could drop to the 0.65 region in the next 6-months. Key Quotes “The significant terms-of-trade shock which NZD has suffered during the course of the past year is now feeding through to the growth and inflation picture for New Zealand”. “RBNZ is in easing mode which will weigh on NZD near term. But with some 40bp cuts already priced on RBNZ we see limited downside pressure on NZD from this front”. “But, as we see USD strength returning in the near future ahead of a first Fed hike in September, NZD/USD is set to move lower on a clear divergence in monetary policy”. “We have lowered our near-term forecasts and now see the cross hitting 0.65 in 6M (prev. 0.69). On a 12M horizon we do, however, expect USD strength to fade, and with upside risks to agricultural prices from a structural point of view, we expect NZD/USD to stabilise around the 0.70 mark and keep our 12M forecast unchanged at this level”. June 17,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 17, 2015 Author Share Posted June 17, 2015 GBP/USD clings to gains above 1.5700 FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD advanced sharply on Wednesday, extending gains into a fourth day, and reaching its highest level in a month following UK employment data, which showed wage improvement, and BoE meeting minutes, which showed all nine MPC members voted to maintain policy unchanged. GBP/USD rose more than 100 pips during the European session and hit its highest since May 15 at 1.5754. However, the pair lost momentum and settled in a range near highs where it has spent the last hours. At time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5730, 0.54% above its opening price. Attention now turns to FOMC policy meeting, due at 18:00 GMT as investors look for signals about when and how the Fed intends to raise rates for the first time in a decade. GBP/USD levels to watch As for technical levels, a break above 1.5754 (Jun 17 high), would pave the way toward 1.5800 (psychological level), 1.5815 (May 14 high) and 1.5825 (Nov 27 2014 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.5624 (Jun 17 low), 1.5600 (psychological level) and 1.5540 (Jun 16 low). June 17,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 17, 2015 Author Share Posted June 17, 2015 Greek Central Bank warns of ‘uncontrollable crisis’ in case of no deal FXStreet (Córdoba) - The Greek Central Bank warned on Wednesday that the country will be plunged into an unprecedented slump unless a deal is agreed soon. In a report the Bank of Greece said failure to reach an agreement would mark the beginning of a painful course that would lead initially to a Greek default and ultimately to a Grexit from the euro area and the European Union. “A manageable debt crisis, as the one that we are currently addressing with the help of our partners, would snowball into an uncontrollable crisis, with great risks for the banking system and financial stability. An exit from the euro would only compound the already adverse environment, as the ensuing acute exchange rate crisis would send inflation soaring”. On Thursday, Eurogroup leaders are expected to meet but it seems both sides are unwilling to make the necessary compromises to reach an agreement that will unlock funds for Greece. Athens has to repay the IMF €1.6 billion at the end of the month. Earlier today, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said that he would give Europe the “big no” if Greece doesn’t get an honourable compromise from institutions while accusing the creditors of trying to "humiliate" his country by demanding more cuts. Meanwhile, according to German Forgeign Minister Greece doesn't plan to present a new proposal at the Eurogroup meeting tomorrow. June 17,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 17, 2015 Author Share Posted June 17, 2015 Dovish FOMC could fuel a drop in USD/CHF – FXStreet FXStreet (Barcelona) - FXStreet Editor and Analyst, Omkar Godbole, sees downside potential for USD/CHF towards 0.9240 on a dovish FOMC outcome. Key Quotes “With no signs of Greece deal, EUR/CHF sell-off could continue. A Dovish FOMC would only add fuel to the CHF rally and lead to a drop in the USD/CHF pair. In light of the threat of a Greek default accompanied by a dovish FOMC, CHF could turn out to be the biggest gainer against the USD and Euro.” USD/CHF – Downtrend intact, further weakness below 0.9240 “The daily chart shows strong support at 0.9240 (50% Fib R of 0.8352-1.0128). The spot witnessed minor bounce from the same on couple of occasions since last week.” “The downtrend is intact as shown by falling trend line. A break below 0.9240 opens doors for 0.9071 (May 7 low) and 0.9031 (61.8% Fib R of 0.8352-1.0128).” “Weekly 50-MA currently at 0.9178 could act as immediate support.” June 17,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 18, 2015 Author Share Posted June 18, 2015 USD/CAD around lows on US data FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US dollar continues its march south on Thursday, relegating USD/CAD to session lows in the 1.2140 region. USD/CAD weaker on poor US CPI The pair lost some extra pips following the weaker data from the US inflation figures, with headline consumer prices coming in flat on a year to May and rising 1.7% on a yearly basis vs. 1.8% forecasted. Further data showed Initial Claims coming on the positive side, dropping more that estimated to 267K in the week ended on June 12th. Ahead in the session, the regional manufacturing survey by the Philly Fed is due preceding the Leading Indicator tracked by the Conference Board. USD/CAD levels to consider At the moment the pair is down 0.68% at 1.2144 with the next support at 1.2126 (low May 19) ahead of 1.1982 (low May 15) and finally 1.1920 (low May 14). On the flip side, a break above 1.2238 (high Jun.18) would aim for 1.2242 (Kijun Sen) and then 1.2253 (low Jun.11). June 18,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 18, 2015 Author Share Posted June 18, 2015 EUR/CHF expected to see 1.10, 12-M view – Danske FXStreet (Barcelona) - Christin Tuxen, PhD, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, expects EUR/CHF to see some relief later in the year as Eurozone growth and inflation picks up, and hence forecast the pair to see 1.10 levels over a 12 month view. Key Quotes “We maintain the view that the CHF could strengthen near term on Greece worries and ECB QE weighing on the EUR still; we see EUR/CHF at 1.04 in 1-3M.” “However, we emphasise that EUR/CHF (and hence the SNB) will get some relief later in the year when euro-zone growth and inflation pick up and the pricing of an eventual ECB exit moves to the fore as a result. The SNB will thus likely keep policy rates at - 0.75% for now. We continue to target EUR/CHF at 1.10 in 12M.” June 18,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 18, 2015 Author Share Posted June 18, 2015 Eurogroup Meeting: Trilemma between austerity, reform and debt relief – BBH FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team comments on the ongoing Greece crisis, noting that Merkel is now appearing to take control of the negotiations just as Tsipras did by removing the Greece FM. Key Quotes “It is nearly a foregone conclusion that today’s Eurogroup meeting will not provide closure for the Greek crisis. Merkel’s speech to the German parliament today showed no sign that the creditors are yielding. The EU Summit a week from now is the next real opportunity. This is important. Just as Greece’s Tsipras had removed his finance minister from negotiations in the hope that it created a less antagonistic atmosphere, so too now does Merkel appear to be taking control of the negotiations from her finance minister.” “Known for her caution, and moving at the last possible moment, as she did with Greece back in 2010-2011, Merkel may have waited too long this time as positions have hardened, and trust has been further eroded. Ultimately, national interests are involved. Germany is acting like a creditor and Greece is acting like a debtor. When the shoes were on different feet, Germany acted like a debtor and Greece a creditor. Each drapes their position in moralistic terms.” “We continue to believe that a Greek exit would be more costly for Europe and Greece than a compromise here. There is a trilemma playing out between, austerity, reform, and debt relief.” June 18,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 18, 2015 Author Share Posted June 18, 2015 GBP/USD clings to 1.5900 FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD is going through a consolidation phase around the 1.59 mark, extending gains into a fifth consecutive day as investors continue to digest FOMC policy meeting. GBP/USD climbed to its highest level since Nov 2014 at 1.5929 but found resistance and entered a consolidation phase in early American trade. Despite upbeat jobless claims and current account data, US consumer price figures came in below expectations adding pressure on the dollar. GBP/USD levels to watch At time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5893, recording a 0.40% gain on Thursday. On the upside, next resistance levels are seen at 1.5944 (Nov 11 2014 high) and 1.5996 (Nov 6 2014 high). On the downside, supports could be found at 1.5805 (Jun 18 low), 1.5655 (100-hour SMA) and 1.5624 (Jun 17 low). June 18,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 18, 2015 Author Share Posted June 18, 2015 EUR/USD supported by soft US CPI data – FXStreet FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, explains that EUR/USD’s upside advance found some additional support after US CPI came out below expectations, and in spite of technicals losing upward strength, a higher move towards 1.1466 might be expected in the pair. Key Quotes “The dollar extended its decline this Thursday, weighed by Wednesday's FOMC economic policy announcement. There were no relevant fundamental releases in Europe, exception made by more doom headlines coming from Greece and its creditors, as IMF Lagarde, set that the last date to reach a deal is June 30th, something the market already knew.” “The EUR/USD pair advanced up to 1.1419, with the European opening maintaining its gains and consolidating ahead of US inflation figures for May that resulted worse than expected: annual inflation came out at 0.4% against expectations of a 0.5% increase, whilst the annual reading came out flat at 0.0%. Also, weekly unemployment claims resulted better than expected at 267K for the week ending June 12, but poor inflation figures were enough to trigger another round of dollar selling.” “The pair extended its advance after the release, maintaining a short term bullish tone, as the 1 hour chart shows that the technical indicators are resuming their advances, whilst the price holds above a strongly bullish 20 SMA.” “In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators are losing their upward strength well above their mid-lines, although higher highs support an upward continuation towards 1.1466 last May high.” “Support levels: 1.1385 1.1350 1.1320” “Resistance levels: 1.1465 1.1490 1.1530” June 18,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 18, 2015 Author Share Posted June 18, 2015 USD/JPY: break below 122.46 required for additional declines – Scotiabank FXStreet (Barcelona) - Eric Theoret, CFA, CMT, Currency Strategist at Scotiabank, notes that although short-term technicals point towards a neutral-bearish outlook for USD/JPY, the pair requires a push below 122.46 to see declines towards 121.56. Key Quotes “JPY is up, rising in response to the post-Fed adjustment in light of a more gradual normalization path. Risk now turns to the BoJ policy decision at 11:00pm EST, with expectations of a steady policy stance and potential for an improved tone in light of stronger Q1 GDP data.” “USDJPY short-term technicals: neutral-bearish—RSI has broken below 50, however USDJPY has yet to break to downside of June 10 range with focus on low at 122.46. A test of this level would shift the focus to the May 26 open 121.56.” June 18,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 18, 2015 Author Share Posted June 18, 2015 EUR might move sharply lower if Grexident risk increases – BTMU FXStreet (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, notes that any Euro downside risks will increase significantly if situation regarding Greece escalates. Key Quotes “The longer it takes to reach an agreement, the greater the negative impact on the Greek economy and potential for negative spillovers across the euro-zone. While we do not expect Greece to leave the euro-zone, developments could escalate materially before an agreement is reached increasing the risk of a Grexident. The euro would likely come under increasing downward pressure bringing an end to its current period of consolidation.” “Implied euro volatility remains elevated in the nearterm providing a signal that the spot rate could begin to move more sharply.” June 18,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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