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I tried so many times to trade with my own analysis but it did not work out since I was lacking in confidence, experience and even knowledge, so that’s why I was not able to create proper analysis, but ever since I started with OctaFX broker, it has made things easy with this power pack analysis service, it allows me to trade without been completely relax since it’s so accurate even if I follow it without any major checking I will still do pretty well.

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USD remains fundamentally overvalued - Westpac


 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The research team at Westpac expects a strengthened downward pressure on the US dollar in the month ahead pointing to the upcoming macro prints and comments from the central bank.

 

Key Quotes:

 

"We see little reason to steer away from a cautious USD outlook and stick with a negative week and month ahead bias," 

 

"Our DXY fair value model, based on relative growth, yield and CB balance sheet trends, as well as world oil prices suggest the USD remains fundamentally overvalued, while consensus growth prospects for 2015 still look too high at 2.8%, with barely 0.4ppts trimmed from 2014 prospects due to the high USD and the dislocation in the energy patch," 

 

"Our analysis suggests that these two enduring negatives could easily shave 1 percentage point from 2015 growth."

 

"The PMIs should underwhelm next week while the minutes may weigh on the USD too, assuming they convey the same sentiments as the statement which was more cautious on the economy." 

 

 

 

 

 

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Gold inching higher ahead of weekly US jobless claims release


 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices have strengthened moderately ahead of the weekly jobs data in the US. Fresh bids around USD 1213/Oz pushed the metal higher to the current price of USD 1218.6/Oz. 

 

Gold gains as jobless claims seen rising

 

The metal is being bid higher in anticipation of an uptick in the weekly jobless claims. The data is expected to show initial claims ticked higher to 275K from the previous week’s 265K. Even the US Treasury yields have dipped, which provides further support to Gold. 

 

The metal had witnessed stellar gains in the previous session as it rose more than USD 20 on the back of a weaker-than-expected US advance retail sales data. 

 

Gold Technical Levels

 

The immediate resistance is located at 1224.4, above which gains could be extended to 1236.8 (Feb. 16 high). On the flip side, a break below 1215 could push the pair down to its 100-DMA located at 1210.43. 

 

 

 

 

 

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EUR/USD remains a buy on dips for 1.1530 – Growth Aces


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Growth Aces Research Team maintains a buy on dips approach on EUR/USD, targeting 1.1530 levels.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The EUR/USD remains above 10-dma and 100-dma, which is a strong bullish signal. There are some important resistance levels ahead, which in our opinion will be broken after a corrective move.”

 

“The nearest important resistance levels are double top at 1.1450 (daily high on February 17 and 19) and 1.1514 (50% fibo of 1.2570-1.0457).”

 

“Our trading strategy is to use dips as buying opportunities. We have placed our bud at 1.1285 and will be waiting for breaking above 50% fibo resistance if the order is filled.”

 

“Resistance: 1.1450 (high Feb 19), 1.1486 (high Feb 6), 1.1499 (high Feb 5)”

 

“Support: 1.1340 (hourly low May 14), 1.1250 (10-dma), 1.1202 (100-dma)”

 

“EUR/USD: buy at 1.1285, if filled - target 1.1530, stop-loss 1.1210, risk factor *” 

 

 

 

 

 

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US intial jobless claims fall, 4-week average falls to 15-year low


 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US labor department data released on Thursday showed the first time applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, taking the average to the lowest in 15-years. 

 

The initial jobless claims increased by 1K to 264K in the week ended May 9. The actual figure was smaller than the consensus estimate of 275K. The four-week average of claims, which provides a more accurate picture of the labor market strength, fell 7,750 last week to 271,750, the least since April 2000, from 2,79,500 in the prior week. 

 

Meanwhile, the continuing claims dropped held at 2.23 in the week ended May 2., the fewest since November 2000. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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EUR/USD dips briefly below 1.1400 after US jobless claims


 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD retreated and briefly dipped below the 1.1400 level as the dollar was mildly boosted by better-than-expected US initial jobless claims data.

 

The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in US decreased by 1,000 to 264,000 in the week ending May 8, staying at a 15-year low, and beating expectations of 275,000 claims. 

 

However, separated data showed US producer prices fell more than expected in April. US PPI fell by 0.4% MoM and 1.3% YoY, missing expectations of +0.2% and -0.8% respectively. 

 

The US dollar reacted higher after data and dragged EUR/USD to the 1.1395 area, although it quickly regained the 1.14 mark as the lack of inflation pressure offset the upbeat employment reading. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1405, still up 0.46% on the day. 

 

There is no much data scheduled for the rest of the day, but investors will be watching ECB’s Draghi speech at the IMF at 15:00 GMT. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Bond yields continue to rise – MP


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dean Popplewell, VP of Currency Analysis and Research at MarketPulse, comments on the ongoing sell-off in the bond market, and further notes that higher yields are continuing to support the EUR.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Sovereign debt markets are usually considered relatively stable with intraday yields moving only a few hundredths of a percentage point a day. In less than three-weeks, Germany’s 10-year bund yield has rallied +75 basis points from a record low yield of +0.05% and U.S 10’s have gone from +1.85% to +2.32%. The price move is equivalent to three rate hikes and then some.”

 

“Receding deflation concerns, upcoming supply issues, and worries about trading liquidity have all been cited as reasons behind the recent bond selloff.”

 

“Despite debt markets having lost about $500b+ in value and yields having spiked, monetary policy makers are showing no signs of an imminent increase in the price of money. The ECB and the BoJ are still conducting quantitative easing. The ECB only started in March and Draghi’s monthly +€60b debt demand is expected to cap the upside for yields and QE is slated to continue until September 2016 – there are no reasons to end it sooner.”

 

“Currently, higher yields are supporting the EUR and a stronger EUR will only weigh on the export driven companies in the eurozone, which does not support growth and does not justify rates being so high. There is an argument for a normalized rate curve, but Euro growth remains uneven and bumpy at best (Germany, the engine of Europe, preliminary GDP Q1 number disappointed yesterday +0.3% vs. +0.7%) and shows no signs of being sustainable.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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GBP/USD remains at highs after US data


 

 

FXStreet (Tokyo) - The British Pound remains at highs of the year versus the US Dollar after the US reported a better than expected jobless claims in the last week. Jobless claims 4-week averages fell to its lowest level in 15 years.

 

Earlier in the day, the GBP/USD rose 80 pips from 1.5735 to trade at highs since November 2014 at 1.5815 where the pair was sold. Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5790, up 0.29% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.5816 and low at 1.5729.

 

GBP/USD spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish. 

 

GBP/USD levels

 

If the pair extends declines below 1.5800, it will find supports at 1.5780, 1.5750 and 1.5730. To the upside, resistances are at 1.5815, 1.5860 and 1.5880. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Credit Agricole: Shift in USD positioning not a turning point – eFXnews


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The eFXnews Team notes Credit Agricole suggests that the recent pause might be a precursor to a more significant shift in FX markets.

 

Key Quotes

 

“With last week’s labour, and now retail sales data unable to provide the US economic clarity many FX investors seek, currency markets will likely continue their confused trade today as investors search for additional Fed policy clues.”

 

“Indeed USD positioning may merely be going through an inflexion, rather than turning point before the reality of future Fed tightening begins to bite. If this proves the case in coming weeks, the spectre of higher US rates (and stronger USD) make an attractive case for buying break-out volatility strategies.”

 

“In this respect our FX Vol Radar highlights a number of attractive 3 month Butterfly opportunities with AUD/NZD the standout in G10. Moreover those that feel they may have ‘missed the boat’ on USD/JPY might consider SGD/JPY.”

 

This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Fed looks for clarity - MP


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - With markets pushing back US rate hike expectations, Dean Popplewell, VP of Currency Analysis and Research at MarketPulse notes the data dependent Fed gives little choice to the central bank but to wait for further clarity.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The Fed has its problems. They want to raise rates, but the timing is crucial, as too soon could unwind all the good that would require them to back peddle. Yellen and her fellow cohorts are trying to justify their next move on the back of Q1 “transitory” blip.”

 

“Yesterday’s U.S retail sales number was a bust and a big disappointment to those who are banking on a Q2 rebound in consumption. The drop in year-over-year energy prices (tax saving), higher savings and a stronger labor market (+5.4% unemployment rate) has yet to convince the U.S consumer to spend.”

 

“The Fed’s normalization rate time line is data dependent, but the latest batch of economic releases are very much mixed and are accompanied with quiet a bit of market noise. This would suggest that recent asset price moves are not wholly fundamentally drive.”

 

“The stretch positions taken of late are led mostly by fear and liquidity constraints, whether it’s in the fixed income, commodities or forex asset class. The Fed’s data dependency motive gives them little choice but to wait for such clarity. Hence why U.S fixed income is looking further out their curve for the first rate hikes.”

 

“Some dealers are leaning towards September, but current data would suggest that the Fed has time on their side. This is allowing others to push back Fed rate hike expectations into next year.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Gold rises to three-month high, Silver gains 1.5%


 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices extended gains to hit a three-month high of USD 1223.3/Oz, while Silver jumped 1.5% to trade at USD 17.42/Oz as previous metals pack benefits from the sell-off in bond and equities. 

 

The precious metal have been supported recently by the sell-off in the bond and equity markets. Furthermore, a weak US dollar is also supporting gains. Even the strong data out of the US are being ignored by the previous metals, which is evident from the uptick witnessed today post the release of a better-than-expected US weekly jobless claims data. 

 

Gold has now rallied for three consecutive sessions, gaining more than USD40, while Silver too has gained from USD 16.13 to USD 17.42 levels. The precious metals pack could extend gains even further in case the sell-off in the equities and bond markets continue. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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EUR/USD key support at 1.1340 – FXStreet


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes that the key support for EUR/USD remains at 1.1340, and as long as the pair remains above it a move towards 1.1533 stands likely.

 

Key Quotes

 

“With no macroeconomic data released in Europe, market's attention gathered around Greece's headlines, as FM Yanis Varoufakis has been hitting the wires with doom announcements among which he said that Greece would have never had to join the union, or that the country will sink without reforms. He also claimed for a delay in its repayments to the ECB and said they will pay the IMF only they get a deal.”

 

“Nevertheless, the common currency held near its highs with a brief dip down to 1.1374 before regaining the upside.”

 

“In the US, weekly unemployment claims came out better than expected last week, down to 264K, whilst Producer Price Indexes for April resulted negative, -0.4. Good employment, bad inflation, a mixed message when it comes to next FED's rate hike.”

 

“Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the pair is struggling to hold above 1.1400, whilst the technical indicators have turned lower in positive territory and the 20 SMA provides a short term support around 1.1375.”

 

“In the 4 hours chart indicators are turning lower in overbought territory, but still far from signaling a strong retracement.”

 

“The critical support comes at 1.1340, and as long as the price holds above it, there's room for an upward continuation up to 1.1533, early February daily high.”

 

“Support levels: 1.1375 1.1340 1.1300”

 

“Resistance levels: 1.1430 1.1465 1.1500”  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Gold rises to three-month high, Silver gains 1.5%


 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices extended gains to hit a three-month high of USD 1223.3/Oz, while Silver jumped 1.5% to trade at USD 17.42/Oz as previous metals pack benefits from the sell-off in bond and equities. 

 

The precious metal have been supported recently by the sell-off in the bond and equity markets. Furthermore, a weak US dollar is also supporting gains. Even the strong data out of the US are being ignored by the previous metals, which is evident from the uptick witnessed today post the release of a better-than-expected US weekly jobless claims data. 

 

Gold has now rallied for three consecutive sessions, gaining more than USD40, while Silver too has gained from USD 16.13 to USD 17.42 levels. The precious metals pack could extend gains even further in case the sell-off in the equities and bond markets continue. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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USD/JPY remains bullish for 124.59 – BAML


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - MacNeil Curry, CFA, CMT, Technical Strategist at BofA-Merrill Lynch, maintains the bullish outlook on USD/JPY, anticipating a move higher towards 124.59.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Evidence says that the bull trend of the past 4+ months is drawing to a conclusion and the long-term uptrend is set to resume for 124.59, ahead of 128.45.”

 

“Below 118.33 invalidates this view and points to continued range-trading, while those awaiting additional price confirmation need a break of 120.86 (the Apr-13 high)” 

 

 

 

 

 

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RBA to trim rates by 25bp to a new record low of 1.75% in November - Nomura


 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut its official cash rate to a new record low in November this year, forecasts Andrew Ticehurst, economist at Nomura.

 

Key Quotes:

 

"As we turn our attention to the second half of the year and consider recent economic and market developments, both in Australia and abroad, we now believe it is appropriate to add a rate cut to our H2 cash rate profile," 

 

"The next real window for an RBA cut is likely August, and we currently assign a 40% to 50% probability to a move at this time," 

 

"We forecast a 25bp easing in November, which would take the Australian cash rate to a fresh record low of 1.75%."

 

"Moreover, given concerns about the strength of the Australian property market and the build up of household debt, a monetary loosing implies by the exchange rate would have been particularly welcome to the RBA which may otherwise have had to cut rates more aggressively." 

 

 

 

 

 

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US empire statement manufacturing survey expected to be strong – BBH


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team previews the key data releases ahead in the US, expecting the May Empire State Manufacturing Survey to print a stronger number, Industrial production to remain flat, and Consumer confidence to have stabilized in May.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Today the May Empire State Manufacturing survey will be reported. April's -1.2 reading was the weakest since December. New orders showed the biggest decline since January 2013. Employment deteriorated, while inventories increased. A stronger report is expected for May.”

 

“Separately, April industrial production is expected to be flat after a 0.6% decline in March. Industrial output has fallen in three of the past four months. This is partly a function of the energy sector and utilities. Manufacturing itself snapped a three-month steak of no gains with a 0.1% rise in March. A 0.2% gain is expected in April.”

 

“University of Michigan's preliminary May consumer confidence will also be reported. Sentiment remained at elevated levels in April and is expected to have stabilized in May.”

 

“The inflation expectations may draw some interested after softening in April. The Fed has recently put more emphasis on the survey results than the market-based measures of inflation expectations.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Risky assets increasingly sensitive to Fed rate expectations – BAML


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Strategists at BofA-Merrill Lynch, explain that correlations imply that stock and credit markets tend to underperform when market expectations for a Fed rate hike turns hawkish, and vice versa.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Risky assets have become highly sensitive to Fed policy expectations recently. Although stock and bond returns are normally negatively correlated, the 3m correlation between daily returns on S&P and 2y UST note has turned positive and has reached levels last seen during the "taper tantrum" of 2013, and during the start and end of the previous hiking cycle in mid-2004 and mid-2006, respectively. The correlation between high-yield CDX spreads and 2y UST rate has also increased recently.”

 

“The sign of the correlations imply stock and credit markets tend to underperform when the market expects a more hawkish Fed, and vice versa.”

 

“The current elevated stock-bond returns correlation at about +40% was previously seen only when investors expected an earlier Fed turning point. For example, the correlation reached today's level in 2004 only after the Fed started hiking in June 2004. Similarly, the market pulled the expected timing of Fed hikes earlier by about eight months during the taper tantrum of 2013. This is not the case this time.”

 

“If anything, the OIS market has pushed the perceived timing of Fed hikes further in time to late 2015 or early 2016 (depending on assumptions about the level of the effective fed funds rate after the first hike). This suggests the underlying sensitivity of risky assets to Fed policy is greater than it has been historically, and it may increase to unprecedented highs if the Fed signals hikes this year.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Gold steadies at USD 1215 ahead of US data


 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices have steadied around USD 1215/Oz levels as investors await regional manufacturing data and the industrial production data in the US.

 

Gold hurt by profit taking

 

The metal rallied more than USD 40 in the last three trading sessions. Consequently, profit taking was witnessed since the Asian session today, giving way for losses towards USD 1215/Oz levels. Ahead in the day, the metal could take cues from the US industrial production data, which is expected to expand 0.1% in April. 

 

Meanwhile, the sentiment in the equity markets and the bond markets could also influence the metal. 

 

Gold Technical Levels

 

The metal currently trades at USD 1215/Oz. The failure to sustain above 1215 could push the prices down to 1207.00. On the other hand, a break above 1220.00, could see the metal re-test 1225 levels. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Remain long on GBP/USD, targeting 1.5880 – Growth Aces


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Expecting UK April CPI to edge higher to 0.1%, the Growth Aces Research Team, maintains a bullish outlook on the pair.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The GBP/USD edged away from a five-and-a-half-month high on Friday after a post-election rally. Adding to its election-inspired rally, the GBP was also boosted earlier in the week by data that showed British earnings growth had picked up more than expected in the first quarter of the year. The market has been concentrating mainly on positive news for the GBP recently. The losses after slightly more-dovish-than-expected BoE Inflation Report were short-lived.”

 

“The next significant data will be April CPI reading on Tuesday. We expect CPI to accelerate to 0.1% yoy from 0.0% yoy in March.”

 

“We are looking to buy GBP/USD at 1.5610, just above 200-dma (1.5608). The 50% fibo of the July 2014-April 2015 slide at 1.5880 will be the next bull target.”

 

“Resistance: 1.5815 (high May 14), 1.5826 (high Nov 27, 2014), 1.5880 (50% of 1.7192-1.4567)”

 

“Support: 1.5711 (hourly low May 13), 1.5608 (200-dma), 1.5558 (low May 12)” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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USD/CAD expected to see 1.23 by 2015-end – Rabobank


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, comments on the rate expectations by the BoC and Fed, and further forecasts USD/CAD to head towards 1.23 levels by 2015-end.

 

Key Quotes

 

“While we not expecting the BoC to cut rates again this year, the current strength of the CAD argues in favour of low rates for longer.”

 

“The next BoC policy meeting is scheduled for May 27. By then it will be clearer if the period of weakness in US growth is less transient that is currently hoped. A less robust US recovery or more persistent strength in the loonie could result in a more dovish tone from the BoC.”

 

“Given our forecast of a December Fed hike, we expect USD/CAD to push to the 1.23 region by year-end.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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US Industrial production declines for fifth consecutive month in April


 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The data released by the Federal Reserve on Friday showed the US industrial production in April fell for the fifth straight month. 

 

Output adjusted for season variations contracted 0.3% in April, beating the forecast of a 0.1% rise. The previous month’s figure stands unrevised at -0.6%. Manufacturing output was flat, with manufacturing ex-Auto falling 0.1%. Mining and utility output also declined last month. Capacity utilization dipped to 78.2% from 78.6% in March, indicating low cost pressure on goods prices. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

May 15,2015

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Commodity currencies basing? – MP


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dean Popplewell, VP of Currency Analysis and Research at MarketPulse, mentions that the recent strength exhibited by AUD, NZD and CAD show signs of reversing.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Investors are finally willing to look more closely at commodity- and interest rate-sensitive currencies like the Aussie, Kiwi, and Canadian dollars. Of late, they have been outperforming the “mighty” dollar by some degree: the loonie is trading C$1.1930, the Aussie has breached A$0.8140, and the Kiwi dollar is printing $0.7550. These levels are in direct conflict to their respective central banks’ rhetoric. The recent strength by commodity currencies is showing signs of reversing, with topping chart patterns in AUD and NZD outright, while USD/CAD shows signs of basing.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

May 15,2015

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 


 

Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! 

oie_EgQvfWMuiI6O_zps5c35ec25.gif

 

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