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EUR/USD correction an excellent sell opportunity – BAML

 


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - MacNeil Curry, CFA, CMT, Technical Strategist at BofA-Merrill Lynch, sees EUR/USD correction heading into a triangular formation, possibly a sell signal for parity.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The correction in €/$ continues to unfold. However, the correction is turning increasingly Triangular (a range defined by two contracting trendlines). This is one of our favorite patterns and should provide an excellent opportunity to go short for a move toward 1.0000 once the pattern completes. For now, stay patient.”

 

“Gains should not exceed the 55d at 1.0967, while a break of 1.1053 points to a larger correction than anticipated.” 

 

 


 

 

Apr 23,2015

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GBP/USD hits fresh daily highs above 1.5050

 

 


 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD rose 70 pips in less than an hour and printed a fresh daily high at 1.5057, erasing previous losses. 

 

GBP/USD benefits from a weak dollar


Greenback weakened in the forex market and pushed the pair to the upside. Cable was trading around 1.4990 and jumped, rising quickly to 1.5050. Currently trades at 1.5045, slightly higher for the day and far from the lows. 

 

The pair was able to erase losses and strengthened after a weak start of the day. Following the retail sales report in the United Kingdom, that missed expectations showing a decline of 0.5% in March, GBP/USD dropped to 1.4960. Later, disappointing US economic data, an increase in jobless claims, a decline in new home sales and a drop in the Markit PMI (preliminary), motivated traders to sell the US dollar. 

 

 


 

 

Apr 23,2015

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USD/JPY drops to fresh daily lows

 

 


 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY fell sharply as the dollar weakened broadly during the New York session following a string of disappointing US data.

 

US housing starts slumped 11.4% in March, pulling back from a 7-year high, while a gauge of manufacturing activity by Markit and initial jobless claims came in below expectations. The dollar was initially resilient but then surrendered and fell to fresh lows versus most competitors.

 

USD/JPY technical levels

 

USD/JPY pulled back from the 120.00 area and hit a low of 119.58. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 119.65, 0.23% below its opening price. On the downside, immediate supports are seen at 119.58 (daily low) and 119.43 (100- & 200-hour SMA), while resistances could be found at 120.08 (daily high) and 120.83 (Apr 13 high). 

 


 

 

Apr 23,2015

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EUR/GBP rises toward 0.7200

 

 


 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The euro made a stronger recovery on Thursday against the pound and is back at the level it had yesterday. EUR/GBP rose sharply during the European and the American session and rose toward 0.7200. 

 

EUR/GBP strong bounce from 5-week lows 

 

Earlier the pair dropped to 0.7117 hitting the lowest value since March 16 but then, weak UK data and some positive expectations about a deal between Greece and the Troika boosted the euro. 

 

Yesterday the pair posted the lowest close in 5-weeks and today is having the best performance in a month, currently attempting to rise back above 0.7200. Above, the next resistance levels might lie at 0.7235 (April 14 high) and 0.7260. 

 


 

 

Apr 23,2015

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EUR/USD drops to 1.0820 on Eurogroup

 

 


 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency is now giving away earlier gains on Friday, dragging EUR/USD back to the 1.0825/20 band.

 

EUR/USD now looks to Eurogroup presser

 

The pair has already faded the most of the earlier spike to the 1.0900 neighbourhood following initial clues that the tone at the Eurogroup meeting between Greece and its EU creditors was far from friendly.

 

From the Eurogroup’s press conference, EU’s P.Moscovici remarked that ‘time is running out’ for Greece while J.Dijsselbloem emphasized that there are still important differences between the parties involved, and he instigated Greece to submit a ‘comprehensive list of reforms’. 

 

EUR/USD levels to watch

 

At the moment the pair is gaining 0.01% at 1.0825 with the next hurdle at 1.0901 (high Apr.24) ahead of 1.0914 (76.4% of 1.1036-1.0521) and then 1.0955 (high Apr.7). On the downside, a breach of 1.0769 (21-d MA) would open the door to 1.0730 (10-d MA) and finally 1.0666 (low Apr.23). 

 


 

 

Apr 24,2015

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EUR/GBP dips to fresh lows near 0.7150

 

 


 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The shared currency got smashed by the British pound in the mid-European session; knocking-off EUR/GBP to fresh session lows, after the ongoing Euro group meeting which provided fresh insights on Greece reforms with EU leaders seeing little progress on the same.

 

EUR/GBP drops from 0.7180

 

Currently, the EUR/GBP cross tumbled to fresh session lows at 0.7154, moving away from 0.72 barrier. The cross in EUR/GBP dived deeper in red with euro getting hammered across the board amid latest updates from Euro group meeting.

 

The news that Greece had still not prepared a comprehensive reforms list, while the time for reaching a deal is running out and there is little progress, which may eventually lead to a Grexit weighed on the shared currency. On the other hand, the pound remains heavily bid against the US dollar, holding on to 1.51 handle.

 

EUR/GBP Levels to consider

 

To the upside, the next resistance is located at 0.7212 (Today’s High) and above which it could extend gains to at 0.7248 (April 20 High) levels. To the downside immediate support might be located at 0.7114 (April 23 Low) levels below that at 0.7080 levels. 

 


 

 

Apr 24,2015

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GBP/USD might see additional gains above 1.5165 – FXStreet

 

 


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, shares the outlook and key upside and downside levels for GBP/USD.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Dollar broad weakness has helped the GBP/USD advance this Friday, with the pair reaching a daily high of 1.5145, so far today.”

 

“The immediate resistance comes at 1.5165, last March 18 daily high, with a break above it favoring additional gains up to the 1.5200 level.”

 

“Deeps down to 1.5090 should attract buying interest, although a downward acceleration below the level should lead to a downward corrective movement down to the 1.5030/40 price zone.” 

 


 

 

Apr 24,2015

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USD/JPY cautious circa 119.50, US data in focus

 

 


 


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US dollar trades around a flat line versus the yen, keeping USD/JPY in the same range near119.50 levels, largely on the back of rising treasury yields which boosted USD bulls while markets now turn their focus towards today’s US durable goods data for further direction.

 

USD/JPY awaits key US data

 

Currently, the USD/JPY pair trades flat at 119.53, revolving around the midpoint of 119 handle. The USD/JPY continues to tread water and recovered from lows as traders anticipate a rebound in the US durables goods orders after a drop previously which may provide impetus to the greenback.

 

The US dollar index which measures the relative strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies turns positive and now trades at 97.47, retreating from 96.93 lows.

 

Meanwhile, durable goods orders from the US are likely to attract traders as the key data may provide fresh take on dollar moves. A gain of 0.6% is expected for March durable goods orders, a recovery from the huge 1.4% fall posted in Feb, while they are forecast to rise 0.3% when measured excluding transport. 

 

USD/JPY Technical Levels

 

To the upside, the next resistance is located at 120 (50-DMA) levels and above which it could extend gains 120.45 (April 7 High) levels. To the downside immediate support might be located at 119.14 (April 22 Low) below that at 118.77 (April 16 Low) levels. 

 


 

 

Apr 24,2015

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GBP/USD off highs near 1.5120

 

 


 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - GBP/USD trimmed gains and inched back closer towards 1.51 handle, deflating from highs near 1.5150 – psychological figure, largely on the back of a major pull back seen in the US dollar across the board erasing previous losses ahead of release of a set of major US economic data.

 

US data awaited

 

The GBP/USD pair trades 0.43% higher at 1.5120, retreating from fresh 5-week highs at 1.5146. The GBP/USD pared some gains as the US dollar managed to fight its way back against its major peers, wiping out entire losses ahead of US open.

 

The US dollar index which measures the relative strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies recovered losses and now trades muted at 97.43, awaiting fresh incentives.

 

Meanwhile, traders now turn their focus towards US economic releases including the major durable goods orders data amid a data dry GBP calendar, for further momentum on the pair. While Greece updates are closely monitored.


GBP/USD Levels to consider

 

The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.5196 (Feb 3 High) above which gains could be extended to 1.5250 levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 1.5028 (Today’s Low) below which it could extend losses to 1.5000 levels. 

 

 


 

 

Apr 24,2015

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EUR/USD downtrend still in play, might see 1.04 over 12M – Rabobank

 

 


 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Despite EUR/USD having seen higher levels since morning, the pair still remains trapped in a sideways range, notes Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, and further forecasts the pair at 1.04, over a 12month view.

 

Key Quotes

 

“This morning’s squeeze higher in EUR/USD demonstrates that volatility in the currency pair is showing little sign of capitulating. While heightened levels of volatility have been a feature of the currency pair all year, there has been a change over the past month or so insofar EUR/USD has been trading in a choppy, sideways trend rather than lower.”

 

“Currently EUR/USD is on course for ending the month higher, for the first time since June 2014. That said, we are of the view that it is too early to call an end to the downtrend that has persisted since the middle of last year. For that to happen the EUR/USD1.10/1.11 resistance area would have to be cleared.”

 

“The Greek situation provides good reason to expect that volatility in EUR/USD will remain at a heightened level in the coming weeks. Overall, we retain our view that the view that USD strength will remain a theme for 2015, albeit at a moderated level. Our 12 mth forecast for EUR/USD stands at 1.04.” 

 

 


 

 

Apr 24,2015

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EUR/UD advances to 1.0870 post-US data

 

 


 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD has resumed its intraday upside following the releases in the US docket on Friday, currently testing the 1.0870 area.

 

EUR/USD firmer on data

 

The pair accelerated the rebound after US Durable Goods Orders surpassed estimates during March, expanding at a monthly pace of 4.0%, leaving behind forecasts for a 0.6% advance and reverting February’s 1.4% drop. Excluding the Transportation sector, orders contracted 0.2% MoM, missing estimates for a 0.3% gain.

 

That was all from the data front on Friday, with market participants are still digesting the recent Eurogroup results and gauging the future steps of Greece ahead of the late-June deadline.

 

EUR/USD levels to watch

 

At the moment the pair is gaining 0.42% at 1.0869 with the next hurdle at 1.0901 (high Apr.24) ahead of 1.0914 (76.4% of 1.1036-1.0521) and then 1.0955 (high Apr.7). On the downside, a breach of 1.0769 (21-d MA) would open the door to 1.0730 (10-d MA) and finally 1.0666 (low Apr.23). 

 

 

 


 

 

Apr 24,2015

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BoJ to keep policy unchanged in its April meeting – BAML

 

 


 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to BofA-Merrill Lynch, BoJ will likely keep its policy unchanged in its 30th April meeting, and lower the FY15 price outlook.


Key Quotes

 

“We expect the BoJ to leave policy unchanged at its Monetary Policy Board meeting on 30 April. Although it is likely to lower the FY15 price outlook in its Outlook report set for release the same day, we expect its outlook for inflation to start rising in the fall and reach 2% in FY16 to remain unchanged.”

 

“Its decision to expand QQE last October was a surprise, but Governor Kuroda said at a press conference on 8 April that, unlike in October 2014, he currently sees little risk of deflation returning, and we do not think the situation has changed radically in a short time.”

 

“If the BoJ did announce another surprise easing, it would probably cause the market to question the credibility of its statements.”

 

“The BoJ will be forced into a more cautious monetary policy if prices do not rise in accordance with its outlook. At this stage, it will probably stick with its current QE formula built on expanding its balance sheet, but if it does opt for additional easing, given that it will be difficult for it to significantly increase the quantity of its JGB purchases and that any further declines in already low JGB yields would likely have limited impact, we think that rather than pursue greater quantity the BoJ is more likely to strengthen qualitatively, such as by lengthening the maturities of the JGBs it purchases, increasing its ETF purchases, and buying new types of financial assets.” 

 

 

 


 

 

Apr 24,2015

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Actual oil production might be higher than reported in the EIA data – KBC

 

 


 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The KBC Bank Research Team comments on the mismatch between weekly crude inventory estimates from the EIA and the actual figures from Petroleum Supply Monthly report, warning that the actual oil production might be higher than reported.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Crude inventories surprised significantly to the upside while gasoline stocks again fell quite sharply as the refinery utilization declined (it however remains relatively high in comparison with previous years). A bullish reaction to the release may be partially explained by a relatively sharp decline of domestic crude oil production.”

 

“Rather than “hard data”, this category however contains model estimates of the production. The actual oil production may thus eventually prove to be different than that indicated by weekly data.”

 

“In fact, over the past couple of months, the difference between first estimates contained in the Weekly petroleum status report and more accurate figures from Petroleum Supply Monthly report has been permanently negative. In other words, the actual oil production could in fact be higher than indicated by weekly production data.”  

 

 

 


 

 

Apr 24,2015

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EUR/USD sees scope for 1.09 – FXStreet

 

 


 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, sees further upside potential for EUR/USD towards 1.09 levels if the pair manages to trade above 1.0845.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the price stands above its 20 SMA whilst the technical indicators bounced from their mid-lines and maintain a bullish slope.”

 

“In the 4 hours chart the technical indicators hold above their mid-lines albeit lack directional strength, whilst the price stands well above its moving averages in the 1.0740/60 region. If the pair manages to hold above 1.0845, chances are of an advance towards the 1.0900 figure, whilst a break below 1.0800 exposes it to a continued decline towards the 1.0740/60 price zone.”

 

“Support levels: 1.0840 1.0800 1.0760”

 

“Resistance levels: 1.0900 1.0950 1.1000” 

 

 

 


 

 

Apr 24,2015

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UK GDP to slow to 0.5% q/q in Q1 – RBS

 

 


 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Ross Walker, Senior UK Economist at RBS, previews the UK Q1 GDP data release, anticipating a 0.5% qoq gain.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The forecasting dilemma around the preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP is whether to put more weight on the stronger business surveys (which point to 0.6% q/q growth, with upside risks) or the softer official output data (0.5% with downside risks). The former have the advantage of being more voluminous and more timely (with surveys typically stretching to March); the latter are a more thorough set of statistics and feed directly into the GDP estimate. We are guided more by the official data – even with some back-revisions/ mean-reversion, 0.5% q/q looks a little more likely than 0.6%.”

 

“The main output sub-components are expected to be rather divergent: fairly buoyant services growth (0.8%), a small rise in industrial production (0.1%) and a 1.8% q/q contraction in construction.” 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Apr 24,2015

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US service sector growth rate in April eased from seven month high

 


 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The flash US Markit services Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) came-in at 57.8, missing the estimate of 59.00. The PMI in February stands at 59.2. 

 

The details reveal a strong increase in new work received by service providers, but the rate of expansion also eased since March. The service sector also witnessed a rise in employment, with the latest increase in payroll numbers was the steepest since June 2014. 

 

Meanwhile, the latest increase in overall input prices was the most marked for six months, although input costs were subdued in comparison to the long-term average taken since 2009. The uptick in the input also translated into higher service charges. Moreover, the latest rise in average tariffs was the sharpest since September 2014.

 

As per Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, “The service sector enjoyed strong growth at the start of the second quarter, adding to evidence that the economy remains in good health. Although the pace of expansion slowed compared to March, April saw the second-largest rise in business activity for seven months. The improvement in second quarter economic growth, rising price pressures and strong job creation signalled by the PMI surveys adds to pressure on the FOMC to consider starting the process of normalising monetary policy sooner rather than later at its meeting later this week.” 

 

 


 

 

Apr 27,2015

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JPY is flat, ignoring Fitch’s downgrade on fiscal concerns – Scotiabank

 


 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, shares that USD/JPY trades within its Friday’s range, unaffected by the rating downgrade from Fitch.

 

Key Quotes

 

“JPY is soft, but is entering the NA session within Friday’s range and right at the 100‐day MA (119.27).”

 

“Fitch downgraded Japan to A/stable outlook but there was limited market reaction, partially because of the high percentage of domestically held debt. The details behind the downgrade include: 1) a lack of structural fiscal measures in the budget to replace the deferred consumption tax increase; 2) the cutting of corporate tax and increase in spending; 3) an increased degree of uncertainty over the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation.”

 

“Fundamental data today was limited, with the highlights this week from the BoJ meeting and slew of data, including inflation.” 

 

 


 

 

Apr 27,2015

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FOMC Meeting: Fed rates dilemma, to be ‘june’ or not to be ‘june’? – ING

 


 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Rob Carnell, Chief International Economist at ING, explains that the real problem for the Fed at this FOMC meeting will be whether to rule out a June hike or not, with markets currently pricing in a September fed rate hike.

 

Key Quotes

 

“We see the real problem for the Fed this time being that they cannot reasonably rule out a June hike at this meeting, even if it looks unlikely. But this leaves them with yet another textual problem for the statement. At the March meeting, the Fed dropped its reference to “patient”, but then ruled out an April rate hike saying. “Consistent with its previous statement, the Committee judges that an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate remains unlikely at the April FOMC meeting”

 

“This now looks like it was an unnecessary precaution to prevent markets rushing to price in an April hike. But it also means that if they want to leave their options open, and do not repeat the same process by ruling out a hike in June (which would seem odd given how much the economic story may change between now and then), then there may well be a market swing back towards a more imminent hike.”

 

“Financial markets currently price in a rate hike at the September meeting (20bp average effective Fed funds for September, with rate decision on the 17th and current effective Fed funds of about 11bp), so this could see markets pricing in an earlier hike (July?), with consequent upwards pressure on the yield curve from 30 days to 2 years, and upwards pressure on the USD.”

 

“The longer end of the yield curve is harder to call, since this will be jointly determined by the response of the stock market, and this might well see yields fall if stocks respond badly.”

 

“What actually happens in June remains a mystery that only the run of data in the coming weeks will eventually reveal. But the short-term response to leaving June in play at this week’s statement might cause markets to rethink their recent pessimism.” 

 

 


 

 

Apr 27,2015

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Canadian dollar and crosses in a technical snapshot - TDS

 


 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities noted the technical conditions surrounding the Canadian dollar and crosses in a snapshot.

 

Key Quotes:

 

"USD/CAD retains a soft undertone; we continue to target a drop to the low 1.19 area."

 

"EUR/CAD has consolidated early April weakness recently; we think risks remain geared to the downside; look to fade rallies."

 

"AUD/CAD may range trade between 0.94/0.96 for now but we think the bias remains lower."

 

"GBP/CAD bounces right on scheduled break out retest; we are now bullish."

 

"CAD/JPY nears resistance around 99 but should extend higher." 

 

"NZD/CAD's recent turn lower looks ominous on the long-term chart." 

 

 


 

 

Apr 27,2015

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EUR/USD: market sentiment favours shorting the pair - FXStreet

 


 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The FXStreet Forecast Poll, highlights the near and medium term mood for EUR/USD using a FX sentiment tool, while considering the forecast from a select experts, trend calculated according to price as at 15:00 GMT Friday 24th of April.

 

Key Quotes

 

EUR/USD capped below 1.1000, additional declines still expected: market's sentiment still favor shorting the common currency.

 

“Average forecast for EURUSD:

 

1 Week 1.0851

 

1 Month 1.0672

 

1 Quarter 1.0506”

 

Forecast from Experts

 

“Scott Barkley, President at ProAct Traders - Forecast: 1 Week 1.0435, 1 Month 1.0280, 1 Quarter 1.0500”

 

“Mauricio Carrillo, Editor at FXStreet – Forecast: 1 Week 1.1000, 1 Month 1.1500, 1 Quarter 1.1500”

 

“J.P. Morgan Global FX Strategy - Forecast: 1 Quarter 1.0700”

 

“B.M.O Capital Markets – Forecast: 1 Week 1.0800, 1 Month 1.0800, 1 Quarter 1.0700”

 

“BofA-Merrill Lynch – Forecast: 1 Quarter 1.0500”

 

“BNP Paribas – Forecast: 1 Quarter 1.0700”

 

“Commerzbank – Forecast: 1 Quarter 1.1000”

 

“Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research – Forecast: 1 Quarter 1.0200”

 

 


 

 

Apr 27,2015

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DXY in lows, near 96.60

 


 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index, is extending the negative tone on Monday and trading in daily lows in the 96.60/50 band.

 

DXY hurt by Greece headlines

 

The recent re-shuffle of the Greek negotiating team has sparked a wave of risk-on trade in the global markets, confining the index to navigate the lower end of the intraday range around 96.60. The US dollar has reverted a positive start, although the prevailing risk appetite sentiment forced the index to breach the key support at the 97.00 handle.

 

Data wise in the US, flash Markit’s Services PMI came in at 57.8 for the current month, missing the median at 59.0 and down from March’s 59.2.

 

DXY relevant levels

 

The index is now retreating 0.31% at 96.62 with the immediate support at 96.33 (low Apr.6) en route to 96.17 (low Mar.26). On the other hand, a surpass of 97.55 (high Apr.24) would open the door to 98.66 (high Mar.31) and finally 99.18 (high Apr.9). 

 

 


 

 

Apr 27,2015

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 


 

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USD/CAD keeps the negative view – JP Morgan

 



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the opinion of analysts at JP Morgan, the negative perspective remains intact in the pair.

 

Key Quotes

 

“We bought CAD last week as a direct play on the risk of a more extended bounce in oil prices, a view which is so far tracking”.

 

“The last IMM report showed no net change in CAD positions last week, so it looks as though the short-covering process has some way to go yet”.

 

“As far as valuation is concerned the decline in USD/CAD in recent weeks is no more than would be justified by the repricing of BoC rate cut prospects and the move in oil”.

 

“Notably the rate market has halved the size of the BoC rate cut that it expects by yearend compared to the market pricing in March; only 17bp is now discounted”. 

 

“Meanwhile, WCS crude is up by 52% from the mid-March trough”. 

 

 

 


 

 

Apr 27,2015

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 


 

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WTI consolidating around $57.20

 


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The barrel of the American benchmark for the light crude oil is now navigating the middle of the intraday range around $57.20.

 

WTI down from 2015 peaks

 

After hitting fresh 2015 tops above the $58.00 mark last week, the barrel of WTI is now retracing some ground despite the current pullback in the US dollar.

 

In the meantime, a cautious tone seems to prevail amongst oil traders at the beginning of the week, ahead of the FOMC meeting and the weekly report on inventories by the EIA due on Wednesday. 

 

The WTI is trading almost unchanged for the day, looking to extend the current 6-week positive streak from multi-year lows around $42.00 in late March. 

 

WTI relevant levels

 

The barrel of WTI is now up 0.12% at $57.22 and a break above $58.32 (2015 high Apr.23) would open the door to $59.53 (high Dec.12) and finally $61.34 (high Dec.10). On the downside, the initial support lines up at $55.76 (low Apr.23) ahead of $54.85 (low Apr.20) and then $50.63 (low Apr.9). 

 

 


 

 

Apr 27,2015

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 


 

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