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Brent Oil pares gains


 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Front-month Brent futures have pared more than 50% gains ahead of the US session due to a stronger US dollar. Prices had hit a high of USD 59.501/barrel earlier today as speculators increased bets on higher prices amid a slowdown in US drilling. 

 

Strong USD weighs

 

Part of the gains were erased, tracking the rise in the USD index above 100.00 levels. Disappointing Trade figures from China could have also weighed eventually over prices. Prices had gained earlier today as the declining US rig count in the US diverted the market attention to the imminent reduction of production. Reuters data shows open interest in WTI strike options for $60, $70, $80 and $90 per barrel on NYMEX has risen steadily since January, showing that many traders are betting on rising prices. 

 

However, analysts said a big rally was also unlikely, although latest CFTC data showed the biggest weekly rise in the long positions since 2011. 


Brent Crude Technical Levels

 

The futures currently trade at USD 58.50/barrel. The immediate support is located at 57.85 (50-DMA), under which losses could be extended to 57.42 (5-DMA). On the flip side, resistance is seen at 58.67, above which gains could be extended to 59.50. 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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Bunds remains constructive for 160.04 – RBS


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dmytro Bondar, Technical Analyst at RBS, expects Bund futures to see a correction before heading higher towards 160.04 levels.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The market approaches our key target area of 0.13% and price target of 159.53, as the futures chart indicates there may be a correction from here, as momentum starts to fade. This however does not alter the overall constructive view as long as the market remains above the 20-day MA.”

 

“Given a previously-formed Methods continuation pattern on the futures chart (over the period of 10-18 March), I believe that the price will see a further swing to 160.04 and possibly 160.88 after a correction (to most likely the 158.70 support) is completed.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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Yen crosses could hinder USD/JPY’s up-move – MP


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dean Popplewell, Director of Currency Analysis and Research at MarketPulse, argues that bid for JPY crosses might provide some support to the Yen, and hence a test back to 120.00 might be on the cards for USD/JPY.

 

Key Quotes

 

“USD/JPY opened a touch lower (¥120.02), but has since subsequently rallied towards ¥120.75, dragged higher mostly by Asian dollar buyers.”

 

“Market bids still remain solid ahead of ¥120.00, trail down, with light stops mixed in pre-¥120.00.”

 

“Option interest stranglehold has the pair confined to a tight range ¥120-¥121. However, JPY bid on the crosses should add to the markets appeal of selling USD/JPY strength within that range for the time being.”

 

“Analysts are looking to AUD/JPY 200-HMA @ 91.56 fueling tech sellers. While Mid-March EUR/JPY low @ 129.91 looks vulnerable. A break with momentum could provide JPY some support and lead the crosses to push USD/JPY to retest ¥120 again.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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SEB: GBP/USD focus shifts to 1.4565 – eFXnews


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The eFXnews Team notes SEB views that the break below 1.4635 has exposed the March lows at 1.4565 for GBP/USD.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Following violation of the Mar low (1.4635) and the low weekly close last week, focus has shifted to a short-term 'Equality point' at 1.4565 and an alternative 127.2% Fibo extension ref which currently connects to a tentative Jan-Mar descending line of support, now at 1.4450.”

 

“Key resistance in this timeframe perspective is located in the 1.4740/80-area.”

 

This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews. 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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Treasuries: increased bearish risks – RBS


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dmytro Bondar, Technical Analyst at RBS, suggests remaining short on treasuries, targeting 128-11 onto 127-19+ and possibly 126-18+.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The market has had a selloff, in line with our view, after it saw an inside session on 6th April, which, coupled with bearish momentum readings, pointed to increased bearish risks.”

 

“The slow stochastic oscillator also turned negative after displaying divergence with the price action. Therefore, I favour keeping shorts to the first significant support area of 128-07, where an important Fibonacci level and 50-day MA both lie.”  

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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USD/JPY: consolidation with upside bias – AceTrader


 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The AceTrader Team notes recent price action suggests USD/JPY pullback has been completed, and another attempt towards 122.03 is likely for the pair.

 

Key Quotes

 

“As dollar has rebounded after Friday's cross-inspired retreat to 120.05, suggesting pullback from last Thursday's high of 120.74 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains, a break of said resistance anytime would confirm erratic upmove from 118.33 to correct decline from March's near 8-year peak at 122.03 has resumed and extend gain towards pivotal resistance at 122.03 later.”

 

“On the downside, only a breach of 119.64 support would indicate a top is made instead and shift risk to downside for weakness to 119.20/30 and possibly to 119.00.” 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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EUR/USD regains 1.0550


 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After dropping to fresh lows in the 1.0520 area, EUR/USD has rebounded and is now looking to clinch the 1.0550/60 band.

 

EUR/USD depressed below 1.0600

 

The pair is navigating the area of multi-week lows on Monday, dragged lower by a continuation of the USD-strength and disappointing releases in the Chinese economy.

 

In addition, Greek jitters started to gather traction, as the country needs to submit a package of reforms by April 20th in order to be assessed by EU officials prior to the Eurogroup meeting on April 24th.

 

EUR/USD key levels

 

The pair is now losing 0.47% at 1.0554 with the next support at 1.0457 (2015 low Mar.16) followed by 1.0400 (psychological level) and then 1.0360 (low Jan.8 2003). On the flip side, a breakout of 1.0620 (high Apr.13) would target 1.0684 (high Apr.10) en route to 1.0772 (10-d MA). 

 

 

 


 

 

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EUR/USD might make a quick move down to 1.04 - TDS


 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - FX Strategists at TD Securities, view that the Euro bear trend has resumed, and EUR/USD might make a quick move towards 1.04 before seeing a minor rebound.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The data calendar picks up again in the US this week, with retail sales, PPI, IP, housing, CPI data all due as well as an early look at April activity via the first of the regional surveys.”

 

“Investors appear to have decided that the Fed is not that far away from lighting the blue touch paper for “lift off” so positive data should add to the momentum in the dollar that was clearly starting to build up again last week, especially perhaps if the Empire and Philly surveys beat expectations and bolster hopes of a rebound in activity after a sluggish Q1.”

 

“Focus on prospects for Fed tightening will contrast with Wednesday’s ECB meeting where President Draghi will run through how the first month of the central bank’s asset purchase programme has gone and underscore that there is more to do despite the recent firming in EZ activity.”

 

“Price action last week looked negative for EURUSD and points (strongly, in our opinion) to a resumption of the broader bear trend evident in the past few months.”

 

“We look for a fairly quick move down to 1.04 from here now and expect firm resistance minor rebounds.”

 

“Intraday, we expect strong resistance at1.0580/90.”  

 

 

 


 

 

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Gold wavers above USD 1200/Oz


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices jumped to USD 1206.6 before settling around USD 1203.4/Oz levels, as the USD index pared gains and dropped below 100.00 levels. 

 

Tests Hourly 200-MA 

 

Prices rose above hourly 200-MA but failed to sustain above the same located at USD 1204.68/Oz. The sudden jump in the prices was largely triggered by the drop in the USD index from a high of 100.27 to 99.71. Meanwhile, mixed action in the major US index futures failed to influence the metal. 

 

The metal may fall back below the USD 1200 mark, in case the US equities make a positive start to the week. A rebound in the USD index too could send the metal lower.

 

Gold Technical Levels

 

The immediate resistance is seen at 1209.20, above which prices could rise to 1215.22 (200-DMA). On the flip side, a failure to sustain above 1200.00 could lead to a sell-off towards the 50-DMA located at 1193.54. 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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Polish central bank to leave rates unchanged – BBH


 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The research team at BBH suggested that the NBP could keep its monetary stance ‘on hold’ in its next meeting.

 

Key Quotes


“National Bank of Poland meets Wednesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 1.5%”.

 

“Poland also reports March CPI that day, expected at -1.3% y/y vs. -1.6% in February”.

 

“EUR/PLN is trading at levels not seen since 2011. Given deflationary risks, we don't think policymakers there are particularly happy about the firmer zloty”.

 

“Further currency gains and ongoing deflation will raise the risk of further rate cuts”. 

 

“However, April may be too soon after the NBP delivered a 50 bp cut just last month. Another cut in Q2 seems pretty likely if current trends continue”.  

 

 

 

 


 

 

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AUD/USD extends recovery to 0.7600


 

 

FXStreet (Tokyo) - The Australian Dollar is trading in recovery mode against its American counterpart as the pair is now testing the 0.7600 area after bouncing off 0.7550.

 

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7595, down 1.13% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7680 and low at 0.7552. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish. 

 

AUD/USD forecast

 

Earlier in the day, the AUD/USD fell to 11-day lows at 0.7550 as the pair was under pressure following weak Chinese trade data. However, according to Nenad Kerkez in the AUD/USD Forecast Poll, the AUD is "being most resilient currency vs USD strength." In addition, the "latest RBA comments may push the price up to 0.7900."

 

As for the short term, if the pair breaks above 0.7600, it will find next resistances at 0.7615, 0.7640 and 0.7660. 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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USD/JPY erases intraday gains


 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY failed to sustain gains and turned south, dropping nearly 100 pips during the last hours as the greenback retraces gains at the beginning of the American session.

 

USD/JPY pulled away from a 3-week high of 120.83 scored earlier on the day and fell all the way to 119.88 before finding support. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 120.15, little changed on the day.

 

USD/JPY levels to watch

 

In terms of technical levels, USD/JPY could find immediate supports at 119.88/85 (daily low/200-hour SMA), 119.63 (Apr 8 low) and 119.42 (Apr 7 low). On the flip side, resistances are seen at 120.83 (daily high), 121.00 (psychological level) and 121.19 (Mar 20 high). 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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GBP/USD hits fresh multi-year lows – Scotiabank


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - GB/USD hits fresh multi‐year lows as market reacts to broad USD move, and on concerns about softer growth and the looming election uncertainty, notes Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank.

 

Key Quotes

 

“GBP is soft, having falling to fresh multi‐year lows. There was no data released today, but market participants are concerned that recent UK data has softened and uncertainty over the upcoming election combined with a broad strengthening in the USD.”

 

“This week’s highlight for the UK will be tomorrow’s inflation print, expected to be stable at 0% on headline and 1.2% on core.”

 

“GBPUSD short‐term technicals: bearish—signals have all shifted to a bearish GBP outlook, with the RSI at 34 providing plenty of room before GBP falls into over sold territory.”

 

“However unless the MACD line shifts rapidly, the charts are at risk of warning of divergence which would imply the GBP softness is temporary.”

 

“Support lies at the psychologically important 1.4600, with resistance at 1.4635 followed by 1.4713.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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US stocks begin the week on a positive note


 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - US stocks advanced moderately on Monday, extending the rally witnessed for the two consecutive sessions. 

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 37.00 points, or 0.20%, to 18093.50 and the S&P 500 index gained 4.14 points, or 0.20%, to 2106.20. The Nasdaq Composite rose 23.02 points, or 0.46%, to 5019, climbing back above 5000 for the first time in nearly three weeks. In early March, the Nasdaq Composite climbed above the 5000-point level for the first time in almost 15 years. 

 

Among stocks, shares in General Electric fell 1.9%. The company’s plan to divest its banking operation, GE Capital over the next two years boosted shares last week. Shares of Qualcomm Inc. rose 2.5%. 

 

The investors are waiting for more cues in the form of quarterly results. According to FactSet Companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post a 4.8% fall in earnings. Energy earnings are expected to slump 65% from a year earlier.

 

Meanwhile, the economic calendar in the US is light today. Ahead in the week, retail sales, inflation and industrial production in March are due for release. 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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Spec positioning on oil climbs 43% in past two weeks –


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Independent Analyst, Malcolm Graham-Wood, comments that although the CFTC positioning data shows that the long positions on oil has increased 43% in the past two weeks, some caution is warranted as the market is still not away from the bear trend.

 

Key Quotes

 

“If you add Easter into the equation the oil price went up last week by a modest 5%, but on the weeks trade only the late rally on Friday pushed crude into positive territory.”

 

“The reasons are a bit samey, the Iran settlement news is losing traction with every day that passes, now not only is an immediate withdrawal of sanctions expected but apparently IAEA inspections not welcome without which there is no deal. Accordingly, markets are now not penciling in any Iranian crude arriving any time soon.”

 

“The second piece of positive news on Friday was a decent rise in the number of rigs lost last week after two rather pathetic figures. The overall rig count was down 40 at 988 and oil lost 42 to 760 which did just enough to give the bulls a few hours in the sun.”

 

“What they havent worked out yet is that despite the number of rigs halving since October the US production is still 9.4m b/d.”

 

“Having said all that the CFTC data is showing that ‘specialist market operators’ are calling the price up, last week saw the biggest rise in long positions since 2011. A rise of 52/- lots to 225/- lots is big and the two week rise is 43%, somebody is certainly taking a view.”

 

“I would change the word from specialist to speculatory and without wanting to be a Jeremiah, say that we are still far from out of the woods.” 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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GBP/USD rallies above 1.4700 as Fed rate hike expectations pushing back in Q4 


 

 

FXStreet (Tokyo) - The British Pound is trading higher against the US Dollar after the weak US retail sales and after jumping 90 pips in the latest few minutes, the GBP/USD is testing levels above 1.4700.

 

The US dollar is trading under pressure following the weaker than expected US retail sales in March as investors are assuming that poor economic data will delay the Fed's first rate hike until the Q4. US continues sending weak economic signals as retail sales rose 0.9% in March, +0.4% ex-autos; well below expectations.

 

Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.4708, up 0.23% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.4733 and low at 1.4603. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish. 

 

GBP/USD levels

 

If the pair consolidates levels above the 1.4700, it will find next resistances at the 200-hour MA level of 1.4755 and then 1.4800 and 1.4820. To the downside, supports are now at 1.4700, 1.4680 and 1.4600. 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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Gold recovers from session lows


 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices recovered from the session low of USD 1183.7/Oz after the weaker-than-expected US advance retail sales number hit the wires. 

 

Gold recovers as the USD weakens

 

The US dollar fell across the board, pushing the USD index lower to 99.18 levels. Consequently, the metal recovered from the session lows to a high of USD 1192.4 before settling at USD 1187.7/Oz levels. The metal came under pressure earlier today after being rejected at USD 1200.00 levels. 

 

Further moves in the yellow metal depend on the USD index and the sentiment in the US equity markets. Risk aversion in the equities due to weak retail sales could support yellow metal. 

 

Gold Technical Levels

 

The immediate resistance is seen at 1193.2, above which gains could be extended to 1198.9. On the flip side, a break below the daily low at 1183.7 could push the prices lower to 1178.5. 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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USD/JPY remains comfortable within its long-held range – Scotiabank


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, views that USD/JPY might continue to trade in its long-held range only to break higher and close the year at 125.

 

Key Quotes

 

“JPY continues to trade within its range, relatively quiet against the USD; however EURJPY has dropped to fresh lows weighed down by the weak EUR. There was no data today with the focus on the broader FX market moves.”

 

“Comments yesterday by PM Abe’s adviser, Koichi Hamada, that at current levels the yen is ‘considerably weak’ and that it is likely coming closer to its limit bit by bit, helped to stabilize the currency.”

 

“In the near‐term we expect USDJPY to continue to range trade before eventually pushing higher and closing the year at 125.”

 

“USDJPY short‐term technicals: mixed—USDJPY is trading with a range, making technicals less relevant than they are in a trending environment.”

 

“Support comes in at the recent low of 118.72, while resistance comes in at the recent high of 120.84.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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EUR/USD approaches to 1.0700 as dollar slumps


 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD rose more than 100 pips over the last minutes and reached a 4-day high as on the top of disappointing US data, the IMF downgraded US growth outlook, weighing on the greenback.

 

While US retail sales grew less than expected (0.9% versus 1.1% exp) and NFIB business optimism index unexpectedly dropped in March (95.2 vs 98.4 exp), the IMF cut their US growth forecast for 2015 and 2016 to 3.1% versus 3.3% estimated in January.

 

The dollar fell sharply across the board, with EUR/USD climbing as high as 1.0691 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.0685, recording a 1.12% gain since opening. 

 

EUR/USD levels to watch

 

Immediate resistances for EUR/USD are now seen at 1.0700 (psychological level), 1.0713 (Mar 31 low) and 1.0763 (10-day SMA). On the flip side, supports could be found at 1.0523 (Apr 13 low), 1.0500 (psychological level) and 1.0462 (12-year low Mar 13). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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GBP/USD extends gains after IMF says better Eurozone, but worse US forecast


 

 

FXStreet (Tokyo) - The GBP/USD is extending post-retail sales gains and after breaking above the 200-hour MA of 1.4760, the pair is now heading towards 1.4800.

 

The US dollar is trading under pressure following a weaker than expected US retail sales in March as investors assumed that poor economic data will delay Fed's first rate hike until the Q4.

 

In addition, the FMI revised lower US GDP 2015 expectations to 3.1% vs 3.3% in January; and 3.1% in 2016 vs the 3.3% expected in January. On the other hand, Eurozone GDP expectations are up to 1.6% vs 1.3% in January.

 

Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.4781, up 0.73% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.4790 and low at 1.4603. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish. 

 

GBP/USD levels

 

If the pair consolidates levels above 1.4760, it will find next resistances at 1.4800 and then 1.4820. To the downside, supports are now at 1.4700, 1.4680 and 1.4600. 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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Gold rises after IMF revises US growth forecasts lower


 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices recovered sharply after the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its World Economic Outlook, revised the US GDP forecasts for 2015 lower. 

 

Gold gains on weak economic outlook

 

The yellow metal recovered to USD 1196/Oz as investors piled into safe haven assets after the IMF revised US 2015 growth forecast to 3.1% vs 3.3% in January. The markets did not appreciate the weak forecasts, thereby sending the US dollar lower, while traditional safe havens - Gold, Treasuries, Yen higher. 

 

The metal could extend gains further in case the US equity markets turn risk averse in response to a weaker-than-expected US advance retail sales figure and due to IMF’s weak growth forecasts. 

 

Gold Technical Levels

 

The metal currently trades at USD 1196/Oz. The immediate resistance is seen at 1200.76 (5-DMA), above which gains could be extended to 1205.1. On the flip side, support is seen at 1193.1 and 1183.7 levels. 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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EUR/USD technicals supporting additional gains – FXStreet


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - EUR/USD climbs higher after US retail sales missed expectations, with technicals supporting additional gains towards 1.0690, notes Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The EUR/USD pair trades in quite a thin range around the 1.0550 area, as the market waits for the ECB economic policy meeting this Wednesday.”

 

“Earlier in the day, local data resulted mild weak, with German wholesale prices down by 1.1% in March, yearly basis, and Spain inflation still negative.”

 

“In the US, Retail Sales missed expectations, up 0.9% in March against 1.1% expected, while Producer price indexes came out as expected, triggering a dollar bearish run across the board.”

 

“Technically, the EUR/USD 1 hour chart shows that the price advances above a flat 20 SMA and extends above the 1.0600 figure, whilst the technical indicators head strongly up above their mid-lines.”

 

“In the 4 hours chart, the price advances above a bearish 20 SMA, while the technical indicators gain upward momentum above their mid-lines, supporting additional advances, up to 1.0690, the 61.8% retracement of its latest bullish daily run.”

 

“Support levels: 1.0600 1.0550 1.0520”

 

“Resistance levels: 1.0690 1.0720 1.0755” 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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EUR/GBP further upside towards 0.7625 likely – RBS


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dmytro Bondar, Technical Analyst at RBS, maintains a bullish view on EUR/GBP, targeting 0.7625 levels.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The pair has bounced from the 0.7000 support level, as weekly MACD turned bullish and the pair recovered above the next level of 0.7151, indicating that there will likely be an increased pressure on the 0.7390 resistance with further breakout opening 0.7628 and above targets.”

 

“Therefore, I believe the near term will see a range of 0.7152 – 0.7390 with long term upside breakout likely, targeting 0.7625 at least.”

 

“Caveat will be a break below 0.7000.”

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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EUR/GBP further upside towards 0.7625 likely – RBS


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dmytro Bondar, Technical Analyst at RBS, maintains a bullish view on EUR/GBP, targeting 0.7625 levels.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The pair has bounced from the 0.7000 support level, as weekly MACD turned bullish and the pair recovered above the next level of 0.7151, indicating that there will likely be an increased pressure on the 0.7390 resistance with further breakout opening 0.7628 and above targets.”

 

“Therefore, I believe the near term will see a range of 0.7152 – 0.7390 with long term upside breakout likely, targeting 0.7625 at least.”

 

“Caveat will be a break below 0.7000.”

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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US stocks decline on growth concerns


 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - US stock markets turned lower after a positive start on Tuesday after the weak economic data and downward revision of growth forecast by the International Monetary Fund triggered growth concerns. 

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 25.54 points, or 0.14%, to 17,950.50. The S&P 500 fell four points, or 0.20%, to 2088.20. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained six points, or 0.1%, to 4994.

 

Shares in JP Morgan rose 2.25% after the bank said its first-quarter profit rose 12%, boosted by strong results in its trading business. Johnson & Johnson said first-quarter profit fell 8.6%, and it reduced its 2015 per-share earnings outlook amid increased pressure from a strong U.S. dollar. 

 

On the macro front, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today that retail sales in March rose 0.9%, compared to the expectation of a 1.1% gain. The February retail sales figure has been revised upwards to -0.5% from -0.6%. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its World Economic Outlook, revised US growth forecast for 2015 to 3.1% vs 3.3% in January. 

 

Elsewhere, gold traded 0.38% lower at USD 1194.70/Oz, while the WTI crude futures rose 1.89% higher to USD 52.89. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.873% from 1.938% on Monday.  

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Apr 14,2015

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