OctaFX_Farid Posted August 29, 2014 Author Share Posted August 29, 2014 EMU: CPI (Aug.) at 0.3% YoY Consumer Prices in the euro area rose 0.3% YoY, matching previous estimates and down from July’s 0.4%. Core prices advanced 0.9% over the last twelve months, exceeding the 0.8% forecasted. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 29, 2014 Author Share Posted August 29, 2014 USD/JPY toying with 104.00 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback seems to have resumed its upside on Friday, now lifting the USD/JPY to the very doorsteps of the critical barrier at 104.00. USD/JPY looks to regain weekly tops The pair is trading on a firmer footing and prolonging the bounce off the 103.70 area. The overall weaker tone from the Japanese docket in today’s early hours weighed on the yen, adding to the upside sentiment in the pair. Next of relevance will be the US inflation figures tracked by the PCE along with Private Income/Spending and the final reading of the Reuters/Michigan index for the month of August. Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank, commented, “the JPY may continue to garner support pending geopolitical developments into the weekend. As such, the pair may continue to loiter at sub-104 levels in the interim with a fairly solid cushion expected towards 103.00”. USD/JPY levels to consider At the moment the pair is up 0.23% at 103.96 and a surpass of 104.16 (high Aug.27) would open the door to 104.49 (high Aug.25) and finally 104.84 (high Jan.23). On the flip side, the immediate support aligns at 103.66 (low Aug.29) followed by 103.56 (low Aug.28) and then 103.51 (Tenkan Sen). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 29, 2014 Author Share Posted August 29, 2014 GBP/USD back below 1.6600 FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD trades effectively unchanged on the day following another failed attempt to break above the 1.6610 resistance area. The latest string of US data had little impact on the USD, confining the Cable to extend its consolidation phase below 1.6600. US personal income and spending came slightly below expectations at 0.2% and -0.1% respectively in July, while core PCE was unchanged at 1.5% y/y. Ahead of the long weekend in the US, the GBP/USD is trading at the 1.6585 area, flat on the day, but still on track for a mild weekly gain following 7 weeks of losses. GBP/USD technical levels As for technical levels, the GBP/USD could find immediate supports at 1.6535 (Aug 27 low), 1.6509 (Mar 26 low) and 1.6500 (psychological level). On the flip side, resistances are seen at 1.6612 (Aug 28 high), 1.6670 (Aug 20 high) and 1.6685 (200-day SMA). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 29, 2014 Author Share Posted August 29, 2014 EUR/USD apathetic post-US data FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency practically stayed put in the wake of today’s US docket, with the EUR/USD keeps hovering over the 1.3180/85 area. EUR/USD limited by 1.3200 Spot remains confined to the upper 1.3100s despite data releases in the US came in on a softer tone overall. In fact, both Personal Spending and Personal Income disappointed expectations in July, contracting 0.1% and gaining 0.2%, respectively. Consumer prices measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) – the Fed’s favourite gauge – remained unchanged at 1.6% on a year to July, while Core PCE rose 1.5% vs. 1.6% previous. All in all, the EUR is closing another dreadful week, trading in levels last seen in early September 2013 ahead of the key ECB meeting due next week. EUR/USD levels to watch The pair is now flat at 1.3180 with the next resistance at 1.3222 (high Aug.28) ahead of 1.3297 (high Aug.22) and then 1.3316 (210-d MA). On the downside, a breach of 1.3152 (low Aug.27) would target 1.3105 (low Sep.6 2013) en route to 1.3089 (low Jul.19 2013). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 29, 2014 Author Share Posted August 29, 2014 US: PCE (Jul) rose 1.6% YoY FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US Commerce Department informed that the US inflation, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures, rose 1.6% YoY during July, matching the previous print. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.1%. The Core reading, which strips the food and energy costs, rose 1.5% over the last twelve months and 0.1% inter-month. Personal Income expanded 0.2% on a monthly basis while Personal Spending contracted 0.1%. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 29, 2014 Author Share Posted August 29, 2014 United States Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index registered at 82.5 above expectations (80.1) in August Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 30, 2014 Author Share Posted August 30, 2014 Wall Street closed: S&P 500, best August performance since 2000 FXStreet (Guatemala) - In the US, stocks picked up on best monthly gains since the start of the year as investors were encouraged by improving developments in the US economy. Consumer confidence improved in the month of August with the public likely encouraged by improvements in the labour market. Reuters/Michigan Consumer sentiment index beat expectations and improved on the last print as well, printing 82.5 vs 80.1 consensus and 81.8 previous for July. Core PCE came in line with expectations at 1.5% for July month on month. The S&P 500 Index scored 3.8 percent this month, the best August performance since 2000. For today, it put 0.3 percent of gains and read 2,003.37 as of 4 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 18.88 points to read 17,098.45 and the The Nasdaq Composite Index added 0.5 percent to read 4,580.27. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 30, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 30, 2014 Author Share Posted August 30, 2014 Session recap: EUR falls through key 1.3150 level FXStreet (Guatemala) - The Euro finally gave up the 1.3150 barrier after the London fix and month end flows were wrapped up. US stocks and the dollar got a lift from a decent and positive end of the month set of data. Consumer confidence improved in the month of August with the public likely encouraged by improvements in the labour market. Reuters/Michigan Consumer sentiment index beat expectations and improved on last print as well, printing 82.5 vs 80.1 consensus and 81.8 previous for July. Core PCE came in line with expectations at 1.5% for July month on month. EUR/USD had been offered from 1.3180 and bears jumped on top which pushed the pair through the 1.3150 barrier at the end of the week and leaves us wondering when this train is going to stop. There are talks of there being further barrier option interest at 1.3125 and then 1.31 the figure. GBP/USD was volatile at month end as the pair lost it’s footing after the European spike onto the 1.66 handle, and dropped all the way back to test territory at 1.6565. This was short lived as bulls took over and made sure of a close back on the 1.66 handle. USD/CAD followed through on the bid on the initial move away from the end of the week lows. Canada printed a very healthy GDP result but the greenback was relentless into the closing hours with end of month flows executed. Key events: Chicago PMI improved to 64.3 from 52.6 Canadian GDP Q2 3.1% vs median forecast of 2.7% US core PCE as expected at 1.5% y/y Reuters/ Michigan consumer sentiment beats expectations at 82.5 OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 30, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 30, 2014 Author Share Posted August 30, 2014 South Africa Private Sector Credit climbed from previous 8.69% to 9.77% in July Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 30, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 1, 2014 Author Share Posted September 1, 2014 Chinese economy still in expansionary camp – Danske Bank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Flemming Nielsen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, assessed the recent release in the Chinese economy. Key Quotes “China’s official manufacturing PMI released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in August declined to 51.1 (consensus: 51.2, DBM: 51.2) from 51.7 in July broadly in line with expectations. The HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI released in its final version this morning declined to 50.2 (revised down from 50.3) from 51.7 in July. For both manufacturing PMIs this is the lowest level since May”. “The details in the NBS manufacturing PMI were relatively weak. New orders declined to 53.2 from 54.2, while export orders declined slightly to 50.0 from 50.8 in July”. “The finished goods inventory component in the NBS manufacturing PMI increased slightly to 48.1 from 47.6 and hence the new order-inventory-balance deteriorated slightly in August. However, in both manufacturing PMIs the deterioration in the new order-inventory-balance has been modest and the level remains relatively healthy”. “Today’s NBS manufacturing PMI confirms that the Chinese economy again has lost some momentum and the manufacturing PMI appears to have peaked unless monetary policy and fiscal policy are eased substantially soon”. “In our view there are three possible explanations for the recent weakness: 1) continued weakness in the property market, 2) the impact from fiscal stimulus has started to wane with infrastructure spending showing signs of slowing in July and 3) the accelerated corruption campaign in recent months could have started to weigh on investment demand”. “The manufacturing PMI is expected to continue to decline slightly in the coming months. If the manufacturing PMIs move below 50 in the coming months, an interest rate cut can no longer be ruled out, even though the Chinese government has been reluctant to use monetary stimulus and has preferred fiscal stimulus instead”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 1, 2014 Author Share Posted September 1, 2014 EMU: Manufacturing PMI (Aug) at 50.7 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The manufacturing gauge of the PMI for the euro area remains in expansionary territory during August, despite coming down to 50.7 vs. 50.8 forecasted and July’s 51.8. The German measure followed suit, down to 51.4 from 52.4. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 1, 2014 Author Share Posted September 1, 2014 Gold consolidates below $1,290 FXStreet (Córdoba) - Gold spot started the week on a quiet note after printing a weekly gain and a slight monthly advance in August, although the rise stalled around $1,290 during the European trade. XAU/USD rose around $5.00 an ounce and reached a daily high just above $1,290 but pulled back afterwards and it is currently trading around $1,288 slightly above its opening price. Soft economic data around the globe and ongoing geopolitical tensions have kept the metal on demand, although moves have been timid as investors are taking a more cautious stance. Today liquidity will probably remain low as US markets are closed due to the Labor Day holiday. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 1, 2014 Author Share Posted September 1, 2014 What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and Danske Bank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD is meandering around a narrow range at the beginning of the week, keeping the trade near 1-year lows. “EUR/USD has stabilised but the downtrend remains firmly intact. We expect EUR/USD to range trade and possibly bounce around the ECB meeting but any bounce should be short-lived. We target EUR/USD to reach 1.30 in 1M and 1.27 in 3M”, observed Pernille Nielsen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank. Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, commented, “Resistance comes in along the downtrend channel resistance line at 1.3177and the 1.3222 August 28 high as well as at 1.3333/36. Further resistance can be seen along the three month downtrend line at 1.3376. While trading below here, downside pressure should be maintained”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 1, 2014 Author Share Posted September 1, 2014 AUD/USD drifting to 0.9340 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Aussie dollar is now coming down from intraday peaks near 0.9350, taking the AUD/USD to the 0.9340/35 band. AUD/USD capped by 0.9370 The RBA will hold its monetary policy meeting tomorrow, although market consensus expects the central bank to leave the refi rate unchanged at 2.5% and repeat the neutral tone from last meetings. According to Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank, “we think the market preference for carry may remain in force with leveraged net AUD longs in the latest week growing in the latest week. Ahead of the RBA tomorrow, expect the pair to be negatively buoyant within 0.9270-0.9370”. AUD/USD levels to watch At the moment the pair is up 0.01% at 0.9340 with the next resistance at 0.9376 (high Aug.6) followed by the psychological level at 0.9400. On the downside, a break below 0.9300 (low Aug.27) would expose 0.9272 (low Aug.26) and then 0.9235 (low Aug.21). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 1, 2014 Author Share Posted September 1, 2014 EUR rebound not ruled out - Societe Generale FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale, contemplates the likelihood of a rebound in the EUR in the near term. Key Quotes "The foreign exchange market is doing its absolute best to ignore mounting geo-political tension as the Ukraine crisis deepens. Instead, positioning data (for last Tuesday) point to the two dominant themes - a bearish consensus about the outlook for the Euro and a yield-hungry bias more widely." "EUR non-commercial short on the CFTC are at their highest level since soon after Mr Draghi's ‘whatever it takes' speech two years ago. Clearly, the market is in danger of disappointment if the ECB meeting on Thursday fails to deliver more than dovish rhetoric and promises of action." "Yet, the failure to stage any kind of month-end bounce on Friday as the Ukraine crisis deepened, leaves a challenging technical picture. And economic, monetary policy dovergence point to a huge amount of potential EUR/USD downside as this interest rate cycle finally gets going. It's set up to be choppy, and the risk of a Thursday bounce is very high, but irrespective of the consensual nature and the precedent from 2012, we want to be short when the NFP data are released on Friday." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 1, 2014 Author Share Posted September 1, 2014 USD remains bid - Investec FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec, observes the firm tone from the greenback. Key Quotes "The US Dollar has managed to hold on to recent gains amidst selling pressures at the tail end of last week from month end fixing flows. Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Ukraine and Russia causing unease in the markets combined with better US data have helped the greenback in recent sessions." "Weaker Chinese PMI Manufacturing overnight only served to keep the US Dollar bid into today's open. The euro, in contrast, has continued to weaken after a dovish speech from ECB President Mario Draghi a week ago at Jackson Hole leaving some investors looking for additional easing this week, although a full blown ABS purchase scheme may not have all the details ironed out in time - we could certainly see the deposit rate lowered further into negative territory which would hurt the euro badly and would almost certainly mean 1.30 in EURUSD becomes a real possibility." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 1, 2014 Author Share Posted September 1, 2014 GBP/USD holds onto gains FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD has been one of the main movers in a quiet September kick-off, as investors await key events later this week and with the US out for the Labor Day. The GBP/USD picked up momentum and managed to break above the 1.6610 resistance area, climbing to a high of 1.6643 before finding resistance. However with the subsequent dip contained by the former resistance area at 1.6610, the Cable was confined to a sideways phase. At time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.6620, up 0.16% on the day. GBP/USD technical outlook “The hourly chart presents a technical bullish stance, with indicators heading north above their midlines, and 20 SMA gaining upward slope below current price”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “The 4 hours chart shows also a positive technical tone, yet some steady gains above mentioned 1.6630 level are required to confirm further advances, eyeing then a test of the 1.6670 price zone”. Bednarik locates next support levels at 1.6600, 1.6570 and 1.6540, while she sees resistances at 1.6630, 1.6665 and 1.6700. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 2, 2014 Author Share Posted September 2, 2014 European Monetary Union Producer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (-1.1%) in July Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 2, 2014 Author Share Posted September 2, 2014 EUR/USD on its way to 1.3100? FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The weakness is now intensifying around the EUR, pushing the EUR/USD to test the lower band of the intraday range near 1.3110. EUR/USD in multi-month lows Spot rapidly faded the spike to the area of 1.3140 in early trade, retracing to levels last seen a year ago in the proximity of the psychological support at 1.3100. There are no relevant data releases in the euro region today so traders will concentrate their attention in the US ISM and manufacturing PMI by Markit. Eric Theoret, Currency Strategist at Scotiabank, commented, “bearish momentum indicators are softening with the RSI having stabilized just below 30.The bearish DMI is also moderating, and we note the formation of two consecutive doji candles highlighting uncertainty”. EUR/USD relevant levels The pair is now losing 0.09% at 1.3115 with the next resistance at 1.3196 (high Aug.29) ahead of 1.32222 (high Aug.28) and then 1.3297 (high Aug.22). On the downside, a break below 1.3105 (low Sep.6 2013) would expose 1.3089 (low Ju.19 2013) and finally 1.3051 (low Jul.16 2013). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 2, 2014 Author Share Posted September 2, 2014 GBP/USD breaks support, hits 5-month lows FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD extended its trip lower and having broken below the 1.6535 support area, it stretched to its lowest level since March. Even though the GBP/USD attempted to stage a corrective bounce from the 1.6550 zone post-UK PMI data, it was capped by 1.6580 and came under renewed pressure, falling much deeper and turning into the worst performer in the FX market. The Cable broke below several supports and stretched to a low of 1.6516, last seen Mar 26. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.6520, down 0.51% on the day. The GBP/USD is retreating after 4 consecutive days of gains, after being rejected from the 1.6645 area yesterday’s European session. GBP/USD technical levels Immediate support is now seen at 1.6508 (Mar 26 low) and the 1.6500 psychological level. On the other hand, resistances could be found at 1.6580 (intraday level/200-hour SMA), 1.6612 (Aug 27 & 28 highs) and 1.6645 (Sep 1 high). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 2, 2014 Author Share Posted September 2, 2014 XAU/USD eyeing 1 year triangle support again - ForexTrading.TV FXStreet (Łódź) - Laith Marmarchi, currency analyst at ForexTrading.TV, points out that XAU/USD is eyeing 1 year triangle support again. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 2, 2014 Author Share Posted September 2, 2014 What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and Danske Bank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD is extending its selling mood on Tuesday, putting the key 1.3100 support to the test ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday. “EUR/USD is expected to stabilise around the 1.3105 September 2013 low before reaching the psychological 1.3000 region. On the hourly and daily charts we can see positive divergence which, together with the loss of downside momentum over the past few days, increases the chances of a minor bounce towards the 1.3200 region being seen”, noted Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank. In addition, Thomas Harr, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, commented,”We expect EUR/USD to fall near term on policy divergence and portfolio flows. Market speculation of further ECB easing will resurface in coming months on very low CPI and weak growth. Meanwhile, we expect the market to move forward its Fed rate hike expectations. Monetary divergence will continue to support the USD”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 2, 2014 Author Share Posted September 2, 2014 Session Recap: USD extends gains across the board FXStreet (Córdoba) - Dollar strength has been the theme of the session, with the US currency reaching fresh multi-month highs versus its rivals, and putting the EUR/USD, the GBP/USD and the USD/JPY on a run toward psychological levels. The EUR/USD resumed the slide and hit another 1-year low a few pips above 1.3100 after a bounce attempt was capped by the 1.3140 zone. The USD/JPY soared throughout the last sessions, peaking at a high of 104.97 and threatening the 105.00 level. The GBP/USD is among the worst performers, having pulled back sharply toward its lowest level in 5 months at 1.6516 before finding respite. The GBP has shrugged off solid construction PMI data and seems more focused on the news that the Scottish polling gap is narrowing into the referendum on Sep 18. Meanwhile stocks are broadly higher in Europe amid expectations the European Central Bank could launch further easing measures Thursday aimed to underpin growth and fight deflation. Commodities were lower amid broad dollar strength. Gold lost 1.28% to $1,270 an ounce while crude oil dropped 0.73% to $95.25 a barrel. The US rejoin markets after the long weekend, with ISM manufacturing PMI and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index scheduled. The cautious tone is increasing as investors await the ECB meeting Thursday and the US nonfarm payrolls report Friday. Main Headlines in Europe: Ukraine is back to the headlines – Danske Bank European stocks advance with ECB in focus United Kingdom PMI Construction came in at 64, above forecasts (61.4) in August Gold falls as dollar strength outweighs safe-haven demand European Monetary Union Producer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (-1.1%) in July OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 2, 2014 Author Share Posted September 2, 2014 EUR/USD sell on rallies – Rabobank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Senior Currency Strategist Jane Foley at Rabobank recommends selling the EUR/USD on strength. Key Quotes “In recent weeks the market consensus of when the Fed is likely to announce the first rate hike of the cycle has been largely unaltered. The market expects the Fed fund rate to be hiked around the middle of next year – earlier than our estimate of the end of next year”. “By contrast, expectations regarding the course of ECB policy are in the process of being overhauled”. “Last Friday’s remarks from ECB President at Jackson Hole have raised the odds of the ECB eventually announced QE. While we expect it is too early to see such a policy change at next week’s meeting, we see some form of intermediate policy action as being possible quite soon; preparations for an ABS purchase program may be complete as early as October”. “The tone of the ECB committee and its commitment to further policy actions will, of course, be data dependent”. “We expect EUR/USD to trend towards 1.28 and below medium-term and favour selling EUR/USD on rallies”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 2, 2014 Author Share Posted September 2, 2014 USD and EUR: opposite realities – Societe Generale FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale, remarks the differences between the Fed and the ECB policies. Key Quotes "The US 1year rate in 5 years is flirting with 3%, the lowest level since last June. It's fallen far further than I thought possible from the peak above 4% this time last year." "At the same time, the 1y/1y rate is edging back towards the end-July recent peak near 1.2% and if we get strong data this week, we can see that broken. For most of the FX market, it's the shorter-term rate which matters more." "The Fed has been successful in anchoring expectations about ‘terminal' Fed Funds, but the market is getting on with the job of pricing in a hiking cycle that starts in mid-2015. The dollar is responding and has further to rise." "This shift in shorter-term US rate expectations contrasts with what is happening in the Euro area, of course, but markets are now in such a state of anticipation about what the ECB might do this Thursday (cut rates, increase bond purchases, unveil a ‘proper' QE programme?) that the risk of disappointment is clear. Mr Draghi's Jackson Hole comments point to increased concern, but the hurdles to stronger action haven't vanished and the ECB remains a slow-moving organisation." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.